Impact of “The Blob” and “El Niño” warming phenomena in the SW Baja California peninsula: study case of Bahia Magdalena

María del Carmen Jiménez-Quiroz, Rafael Cervantes-Duarte, René Funes-Rodríguez, Sofía Alida Barón-Campis, Felipe de Jesús García-Romero, Sergio Hernández-Trujillo, David Uriel Hernández-Becerril, Rogelio González-Armas, Raúl Martell, Sergio Cerdeira-Estrada, José Ignacio Fernández-Méndez, Luis Vicente González-Ania, Mario Vásquez-Ortiz & Francisco Javier Barrón-Barraza.

Biom

asa p

rome

dio zo

oplan

cton (

ml L-1

)

Índic

e Mult

ivaria

do E

l Niño

(MEI

)

a)

b)

c)

d)

Bahía Magdalena

• The most important coastal lagoon of BCS • Transitional zone: temperate-tropical

• High biological richness • Fisheries and aquaculture uses • Atypical warming since 2014

The Blob 2013/2015 El Niño 2015/16 2015-2017 The warmest years since 1880

Objective

To determine the effect of the atypical warming on environment (temperature, salinity, nutrients) and phyto and zooplankton communities How the ecosystem resilience has been affected?

Topics • NE Pacific characteristics • Upwelling phenology • Temperature, salinity and density • Inorganic Nutrients • Phytoplankton community structure • Zooplankton biomass and mortality (2015) • Ecosystem resilience

Samples collected during neap tides (1 day per month)

Jan 2015 to Dec 2017 CTD Inorganic Nutrients Chlorophyll-a Phytoplankton: Density,

species richness and diversity index

Zooplankton: biomass and mortality

Fluorescence of chla (MODIS-Aqua) daily composite imagery

Cumulative Upwelling Index PFEL-NOAA

Methods

Sampling station

NE Pacific characteristics

• Warming since 2010 • The Blob Oct 2013- May 2015 • El Niño March 2015-May/June

2016 • La Niña Oct 2016- March 2017 • ENSO neutral April 2017- Oct 2017 • California current weaker than

normal • 2015-2017 -The three warmest

years since 1880 The Blob

ENSO +-

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

CUI

Julian day

2014 20151967-2010 20162017

Upwelling phenology

Downwelling

Spring US

US Upwelling season

Spring US Days UI>100 (days)

Normal (1967-2010)

1/March-28/June 55

2015 23/March-14/June 18

2016 02/March-15/June 31

2017 14/March-07/July 55

10

15

20

25

30

35

ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17

Tem

pera

tura

sup

erfic

ial (

°C)

Mín-Máx prom Min Man sin zc Max Man sin zcMin. Mad Max. Mad Min. i.s.Max. i.s.

Satellite (monthly images) and in situ measures

Temperature

T° MODIS Aqua night and day images T° in situ Monthly extreme values were compared with Lluch-Belda’1 (2000) data (grey stripe)

2014 y 2015 Anomalies were between +2 y + 5°C 2016 y 2017, values near to average, but the air temperature continues higher than normal.

MA Night MA Day In situ

Temperature, salinity and density were measured at the lagoon mouth (E7) Temperature: temperate and warm seasons 2015 > T° and S ‰ (warm season); < Density 2016: <S ‰ (warm season) 2017 < T° and > Density (temperate season)

T°

S ‰

Density

2015 2016 2017

E7

Sampling station 7 (lagoon mouth): Advection of subsurface water

Feb15 May15 Sep15 Dec15 Jun16 Aug16 Oct 16 Dec16 Feb17 Apr17 Jun17 Sep17 Nov17

Temp (°C)

NH4 (µM l-1)

NO3+NO2 (µM l-1)

PO4 (µM l-1)

SiO4 (µM l-1)

Chl-a (mg m-3)

Sat. O2(%)

S M B

S M B

S M B

S M B

S M B

S M B

S M B

Upwelling Upwelling Upwelling

E7

11

223

3

4

4

4

5

5

56

6

677

7

8

8

9

9

11

22

33

44

4

55

5 66

6

7 7

78

8

89

1

1

2

2

33

T°NH4

NO3+NO2

NO2NO3

PO4SO4

ChlaO2

-4

-2

0

2

4

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

F2 (1

3.91

%)

F1 (47.36 %)

Biplot (ejes F1 y F2: 61.27 %)

S‰2017

Cluster Analysis

1

1

2

233

4

44

5

5

5

6

6

6

8

8

8

9

9

11

2

2

3

3

4

45

5

5

66

6

7 77

8

8

8

9

9

11

2

2

3

3

4

4

T°

S‰NH4

NO3+NO2

NO2

NO3

PO4

SO4

Chla

O2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

F2 (1

8.08

%)

F1 (25.28 %)

Biplot (ejes F1 y F2: 43.36 %) PCA

2015

E1E7E6E8E4E5E9E2E3

0.97904390.98404390.98904390.99404390.9990439

Similarity

2015

E2E4E1E5E3E9E8E6E7

0.97847860.98347860.98847860.99347860.9984786

Similarity

2017

Chlorophyll-a Abundance phyto/chla E6 r2=0.45; n=22

1/14

/15

2/12

/15

3/13

/15

4/23

/15

5/27

/15

6/25

/15

7/23

/15

8/25

/15

9/23

/15

10/2

0/15

11/1

9/15

12/3

/15

1/1/

162/

1/16

3/1/

164/

3/16

5/12

/16

6/15

/16

7/7/

168/

13/1

69/

8/16

10/1

2/16

11/9

/16

12/8

/16

1/19

/17

2/17

/17

3/24

/17

4/20

/17

5/25

/17

6/15

/17

8/1/

17-5

0

5

10

15

20

2535

40

45

50

Clor

ofila

-a (m

g m

-3)

clorofi la s Outliers Extremes clorofila f Outliers Extremes

HAB Ene. Mar Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dic.

Mes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Clo

rofil

a m

edid

a in

situ

(m

g m

-3 )

Median 25%-75% 10%-90%

Feb.

Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dic.

mes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Clo

rofil

a M

OD

IS-A

qua

(mg

m -3

)

Median 25%-75% 10%-90%

In situ CICIMAR MODIS-Aqua CONABIO SATMO

2015-2017

2002-2013

Est. CICIMAR Boca L1, M1 y M2

2006-2011

Seasonal pattern

AB AB

Fluorescence-chla [chla < 4 mg m-3] (Blondeau-Patissier et al., 2014)

MODIS-Aqua; Giovanni-NASA Res. 4 km, monthly composites

2014-2017 Negative anomalies Seasonal pattern varied among years Differences with chla patterns probably were due to species composition

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17

FLH

(Ano

mal

ies)

AB: Algae bloom HAB: Harmful algae bloom

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17

Clor

ofila

-a E

7s

FLH

Mínimo Máximo prom Chla E7s

AB AB

AB

HAB

E6

E9

2015: Eucampia zodiacus

2016: Ditylum brightwellii, Nitzschia sp., Cylindrotheca closterium

2017: Rhizosolenia sp., Guinardia sp. HAB: gill damages of S. lalandi juveniles Shannon-Weiner Index 1-3 2015: > July 2016: > July, depth intermediate 2017: > April, July, surface

Algae Blooms 0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000Nan. s/ID

Dictyochophyceae

Dinophyceae

Bacillariophyceae

Cyanophyceae

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17

0

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

ene-

15

abr-

15

jul-1

5

oct-

15

ene-

16

abr-

16

jul-1

6

oct-

16

ene-

17

abr-

17

jul-1

7

oct-

17

0

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17BA

Density > 1x106

cells l-1

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan. Feb. Mar Apr. May Jun Jul Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Dead

Zoo

plan

kton

(%)

Months

E7 E6 E2

Zooplankton biomass and mortality (2015)

DI

Grey band: IQ distance

• Low Bio-volume of biomass • Seasonal pattern on 2016

and 2017 • 2015: 100 % Zooplankton

dead at lagoon mouth

2015

Near to mouth

Weak Upwelling since Aug ust 1997 Strong Upwellling 1998 (<PDO since March)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

2014

2015

1967-2010

1982

1983

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

2014

2015

1967-2010

1997

1998

Weak Upwelling on 1982; they intensified since 4th week of April 1983 (PDO> 1)

Índi

ce A

cum

ulad

o de

Bak

un

Índi

ce A

cum

ulad

o de

Bak

un

2015 (warmer during winter and autumn)

Temperature and Upwellling

Zoop

lank

ton

biom

ass

Zooplankton Biomass diminished abruptly 1997/98 and 2015/16 Seasonal pattern on 1997, scarce biomass 2015: Change of seasonal pattern

What happened on 1982 & 1997?

M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D

Chlorphyll-a

Conclusions 2015 Upwelling weaker than normal , then less nutrients Disruption of seasonal patterns (abiotic, phyto, zooplankton) Phytoplankton species adapted to high temperatures and scarce nutrients (E. zodiacus) Dominance of dinoflagellate during summer Low zooplankton biomass, dead zooplankton on mouth of lagoon 2016 Seasonal patterns of T°, S%, nutrients and Chla returned to normality Phytoplankton species adapted to high temperatures Dominance of dinoflagellate during summer Low zooplankton biomass 2017 Upwelling stronger than normal HAB; Dominance of diatoms during summer Low zooplankton biomass Winter and Autumn 2015 warmer than 1982/83 and 1997/98 Weaker upwellings since 2014 than during other El Niño

Mil gracias¡¡¡ • For your attention and to: • Baja Seas, specially to Oc. Roberto Flores, Don Jorge Gámez, Don Lupe

and all members of the staff

• Ph D Araceli Aviles, MC Ma. del Carmen Leticia Suarez and MC Victor Laurencez for their unconditional support

• MC Germán Vega-Juárez, MC Graciela Arce-Rocha, Biol. Norberto Vásquez-Gómez for phytoplankton counting and identification

• Administrative staff of CICIMAR, CRIP La Paz, INAPESCA

• Alejandra Rodríguez Jiménez for logo design