Presentation made to Shri Jairam Ramesh, Hon. Min. MoEF14 October, 2009, New Delhi

Impact of Climate Change on IndiaImpact of Climate Change on India’’s s Monsoonal ClimateMonsoonal Climate

andandDevelopment of High Resolution Climate Development of High Resolution Climate

Change Scenarios for IndiaChange Scenarios for India

K. Krishna KumarK. Krishna Kumar((krishna@tropmet.res.inkrishna@tropmet.res.in))

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, PuneIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

Things to followThings to follow……

�� Observed changes in IndiaObserved changes in India’’s Monsoonal s Monsoonal ClimateClimate

�� Climate Change Projections based on IPCCClimate Change Projections based on IPCC--AR4AR4

�� Development of highDevelopment of high--resolution regional resolution regional climate change scenarios and projectionsclimate change scenarios and projections

�� IPCCIPCC--AR5 Climate AR5 Climate Modeling StrategiesModeling Strategies

Goswami et al., Dec., 2006

Changes in the Frequency Distribution of Extremes during 1951-1970 and 1980-2000

Indian Trends: 0.51C/100yr (1901-2007); 0.20C/10yr (1971-2007)

Global Trends: 0.82C/100yr (1901-2007); 0.24C/10yr (1971-2007))

Possible Role Aerosols in Indian Temperature TrendsPossible Role Aerosols in Indian Temperature Trends

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008200

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

Trend = -0.89

Flu

x (

W/m

2)

Year

North of 20NNorth of 20N

South of 20NSouth of 20N

Tmax NovTmax Nov--MayMay

Tmax NovTmax Nov--MayMay

Tmin NovTmin Nov--MayMay

19511951--19901990 19911991--20072007

Radiation ReceivedRadiation ReceivedAt the surfaceAt the surfaceAerosolsAerosols

Important points emerging from the Met. Important points emerging from the Met. Observations of 20Observations of 20thth CenturyCentury

�� No longNo long--term trend in allterm trend in all--India mean Monsoon Rainfall since 1871India mean Monsoon Rainfall since 1871

�� Epochs of above/below normal monsoon activity with a periodicityEpochs of above/below normal monsoon activity with a periodicity of of approximately 3 decades approximately 3 decades –– the current below normal epoch is still the current below normal epoch is still continuingcontinuing

�� Some changes are taking place in the monsoon rainfall character Some changes are taking place in the monsoon rainfall character --increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall eventsincrease in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events at the at the expense of low rainfall eventsexpense of low rainfall events

�� Substantial decline in monsoon depressions and increase in lowSubstantial decline in monsoon depressions and increase in low--pressure pressure systemssystems

�� AllAll--India mean annual temperatures during 1901India mean annual temperatures during 1901--2007 show an increasing 2007 show an increasing trend of 0.51C/100yrs with an accelerated warming of 0.21C/10yrstrend of 0.51C/100yrs with an accelerated warming of 0.21C/10yrs after after 1970s. 1970s. Flattening of trends during the current decade with a warming ofFlattening of trends during the current decade with a warming of0.1C/10yrs0.1C/10yrs

�� Temperature trends in India are slightly lower compared to GlobaTemperature trends in India are slightly lower compared to Global l trends trends –– probably due to large aerosols presence in the Indoprobably due to large aerosols presence in the Indo--Gangetic Gangetic regionregion

Expected Future Changes Under Expected Future Changes Under Increased GHG ConditionsIncreased GHG Conditions

IPCCIPCC--AR4AR4

IPCC AR4 SimulationsIPCC AR4 Simulations

�� Historical run: 20th Century simulationHistorical run: 20th Century simulation�� Future climate simulations (initial conditions from end of the 2Future climate simulations (initial conditions from end of the 20th 0th

Century simulation):Century simulation):

�� ““Committed Climate ChangeCommitted Climate Change””: hold concentrations at year 2000 : hold concentrations at year 2000 �� SRES A2 to 2100SRES A2 to 2100�� SRES A1B to 2100 then fix concentrations (~720 ppm) for an additSRES A1B to 2100 then fix concentrations (~720 ppm) for an additional ional

century (with one realization extended to 2300)century (with one realization extended to 2300)�� As above but with SRES B1 (~550 ppm)As above but with SRES B1 (~550 ppm)

� The model simulation data of the above runs are available through IPCC-DDC/ PCMDI, USA and has already exceeded 40TB

Global MeanGlobal Mean Indian RegionIndian Region

Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenariosover India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios

Krishna Kumar et al, 2009Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020Surface Temp for 2020’’s, 2050s, 2050’’s and 2080s and 2080’’ss

RainfallRainfall

TempTemp

Krishna Kumar et al, 2009Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

Other Expected Changes in Monsoon FeaturesOther Expected Changes in Monsoon Features

Annual Annual CycleCycle

Length ofLength ofSeasonSeason

Monsoon &Monsoon &ENSOENSO

MonsoonMonsoonVariabilityVariability

Krishna Kumar et al, 2009Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

Future (A1bFuture (A1b--20C) Global Rainfall/SST20C) Global Rainfall/SST

Precipitation

SSTa

Column integrated Moisture

Monsoon Circulation Strength

Krishna Kumar et al, 2009Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

Socio-Economic Assumptions

Emissions Scenarios

Concentration CalculationsBiogeochemical/Chemistry Models

Global Climate Change SimulationAOGCMs, Radiative Forcing

Impacts

Impact Models

Inte

ract

ion

s an

d F

eedb

ack

sL

and

Use

Ch

ange

Po

licy

Res

po

nse

s: A

dap

tati

on

an

d M

itig

atio

n

Regional Climate Change Simulation.Regionalization Techniques

Cascade of uncertainty in climate change prediction

NaturalForcings

Major Outcomes of IPCCMajor Outcomes of IPCC--AR4 Model AR4 Model Projections for IndiaProjections for India

�� No significant change in monsoon rainfall until about 2050s and No significant change in monsoon rainfall until about 2050s and an an increase in the order of 8increase in the order of 8--10% towards the end of 2110% towards the end of 21stst Century Century –– biases biases and larger spread across models in the projected changes leadingand larger spread across models in the projected changes leading to lesser to lesser confidenceconfidence

�� Projected future increase in the monsoon rainfall appears to be Projected future increase in the monsoon rainfall appears to be caused by caused by an increase in the total moisture content in the atmosphere rathan increase in the total moisture content in the atmosphere rather than er than an increase in the strength of monsoon circulationan increase in the strength of monsoon circulation

�� A hint of ~10% increase in the variability of monsoon rainfall fA hint of ~10% increase in the variability of monsoon rainfall from the rom the current levels in the future; possibility for the stretching of current levels in the future; possibility for the stretching of monsoon monsoon season with a substantial increase in the rainfall during May anseason with a substantial increase in the rainfall during May and Octoberd October

�� An El Nino like response of sea surface temperatures in the PaciAn El Nino like response of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific fic associated with increased monsoon could have implications for thassociated with increased monsoon could have implications for the e seasonal prediction of monsoon in the futureseasonal prediction of monsoon in the future

�� Expected future changes in temperatures over India range from 1CExpected future changes in temperatures over India range from 1C to 4C to 4C for a range of IPCC GHG emission scenarios for a range of IPCC GHG emission scenarios –– lesser spread across lesser spread across models indicate higher confidence in the projected changesmodels indicate higher confidence in the projected changes

HighHigh--Resolution Regional Resolution Regional Climate Change ScenariosClimate Change Scenarios

Dynamical Downscaling using Regional Climate ModelsDynamical Downscaling using Regional Climate Models

GCMs to GCMs to Regional Regional Adaptive Adaptive Responses : Responses : Modelling PathModelling Path

Cs = f(Cl, Cs = f(Cl, ØØs )s )

Cs Cs -- small scale climatesmall scale climateCl Cl -- large scale climatelarge scale climateØØs s -- physiographic physiographic details at small details at small scale scale

PRECIS Runs at IITMPRECIS Runs at IITM(Resolution: 50km)

Evaluation experiment using LBCs derived Evaluation experiment using LBCs derived from ERAfrom ERA--15 (197915 (1979--93)93)

LBCs from Hadley Centre ModelsLBCs from Hadley Centre Models

•• Baseline (1961Baseline (1961--90) 90) –– 3 members3 members•• A2 scenario (2071A2 scenario (2071--2100) 2100) --3 members3 members•• B2 scenario (2071B2 scenario (2071--2100)2100)•• 3 Members of QUMP (19613 Members of QUMP (1961--2100) 2100) –– A1bA1b

LLBCs from ECHAMLLBCs from ECHAMBaseline 1961Baseline 1961--1990; A2 scenario :19911990; A2 scenario :1991--2100; B2 2100; B2

scenario : 1991scenario : 1991--21002100

Climate change research in IndiaClimate change research in India

Sea LevelSea LevelNIO, GoaNIO, Goa

EnergyEnergyTERI, DelhiTERI, Delhi

GEF/UNFCCCGEF/UNFCCC

INDOINDO--UKUK

MoEFMoEFGovt. of IndiaGovt. of India

Industry & TransportationIndustry & TransportationIIM, AhmedabadIIM, Ahmedabad

ERM Int. IndiaERM Int. India

Climate Change Climate Change

Scenario Development Scenario Development

I.I.T.M, PuneI.I.T.M, Pune

AgricultureAgriculture

IARI, DelhiIARI, Delhi

Ecology & ForestsEcology & Forests

IISc, BangaloreIISc, Bangalore

WaterWater

IIT, DelhiIIT, Delhi

PRECIS captures PRECIS captures important regional important regional

information on information on summer monsoon summer monsoon

rainfall missing in its rainfall missing in its parent GCM parent GCM simulations.simulations.

HadCM3HadCM3 PRECISPRECIS

Possible Climate Change impacts are Possible Climate Change impacts are examined in the:examined in the:

�� Extremes in rainfall and Extremes in rainfall and temperaturetemperature

�� Onset and advance of Onset and advance of MonsoonMonsoon

�� Active/break cyclesActive/break cycles�� Intensity and frequency Intensity and frequency

of Monsoon Depressionsof Monsoon Depressions

Impacts of Climate Change on Monsoon Depression Tracks and Intensity

Projections of Regional Tmax and Daily Rainfall ChangesProjections of Regional Tmax and Daily Rainfall Changes

Highest dailyHighest dailyTmax (C) in Tmax (C) in The Baseline The Baseline PeriodPeriod

Expected Expected changechangein Tmax in in Tmax in FutureFutureunder A2under A2

Expected Expected changechangein Rainfallin RainfallIntensity inIntensity ina rainy daya rainy dayin futurein future

Expected Expected changechangein No. ofin No. ofRainy Days Rainy Days In futureIn futureunder A2under A2

Krishna Kumar et al, 2009Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

Impact of Growing Season Rainfall and Night time Temps on Rice YImpact of Growing Season Rainfall and Night time Temps on Rice Yields in Indiaields in India

Tmin (Tmin (°°C)C)

SRES A2

Baseline

Tmax (Tmax (°°C)C)

Impact of Daily Tmax on the Mortality rate at Delhi (Source: HazImpact of Daily Tmax on the Mortality rate at Delhi (Source: Hazat et al 2005)at et al 2005)

Krishna Kumar et al, 2009Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

Flattening Food Production TrendsFlattening Food Production Trends

Ground Water StatusGround Water Status

Milesi et al, 2009Milesi et al, 2009

Further insights emerging from highFurther insights emerging from high--resolution RCM based regional scenarios resolution RCM based regional scenarios

�� Providing regional climate inputs for impact assessments in Providing regional climate inputs for impact assessments in different sectorsdifferent sectors

�� Decrease in number of rainy days and increase in the intensity oDecrease in number of rainy days and increase in the intensity of f rainfall on a given rainy day in the futurerainfall on a given rainy day in the future

�� Extremes in rainfall and temperature are showing an increaseExtremes in rainfall and temperature are showing an increase

�� No significant change in the date of onset of monsoon but the No significant change in the date of onset of monsoon but the variability of onset date appears to be higher in the futurevariability of onset date appears to be higher in the future

�� No significant change in the frequency of cyclonic No significant change in the frequency of cyclonic storms/monsoon depressions but the intensity of storms seem to storms/monsoon depressions but the intensity of storms seem to be higher by 10% in the futurebe higher by 10% in the future

�� More simulations are needed to gain confidence in the projected More simulations are needed to gain confidence in the projected future changes in the finer characteristics of monsoonfuture changes in the finer characteristics of monsoon

IPCCIPCC--AR5 Modeling StrategyAR5 Modeling Strategy

IPCC RCP Scenarios

IMS Extremes Workshop, New Delhi, 19 April, 2007

A Coordinated Regional Climate A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment under WCRPDownscaling Experiment under WCRP

CORDEXCORDEX

The regional climateThe regional climatechange information inchange information in

Chapter 10 of the TAR and Chapter 10 of the TAR and AR4 was essentially basedAR4 was essentially basedon AOGCM simulationson AOGCM simulations

The resolution of CMIP5 simulations that will form the main inpuThe resolution of CMIP5 simulations that will form the main input for IPCCt for IPCC--AR5 AR5 are are notnot going to be very different in the resolution compared to CMIPgoing to be very different in the resolution compared to CMIP--3 (IPCC3 (IPCC--AR4)AR4)

Resulting in the relevance & usefulness of highResulting in the relevance & usefulness of high--resolution regional resolution regional Scenarios using RCMs for the IPCCScenarios using RCMs for the IPCC--AR5AR5

Current thinking on Current thinking on Coordinated Regional ProjectionCoordinated Regional ProjectionExperiment Experiment frameworkframework

(Source: Fillippo Georgi, ICTP)(Source: Fillippo Georgi, ICTP)

IMS Extremes Workshop, New Delhi, 19 April, 2007

Regional InterRegional Inter--comparison Projectscomparison Projects

PRUDENCEPRUDENCEENSEMBLESENSEMBLESNEWBALTICNEWBALTIC

PIRCSPIRCSNARCCAPNARCCAP

SGMIPSGMIP

PLATINPLATINARCARC

AMMAAMMAAFRMIPAFRMIPAIACCAIACC

RMIPRMIP

ARCMIPARCMIP

Issues on which a Scientific Consensus has Issues on which a Scientific Consensus has not yet been arrivednot yet been arrived

�� On the future projected strength of monsoon On the future projected strength of monsoon circulation and the quantum of rainfallcirculation and the quantum of rainfall

�� Projected changes of subProjected changes of sub--seasonal monsoon seasonal monsoon behavior (eg. Onset, ISOs, Monsoon behavior (eg. Onset, ISOs, Monsoon Depressions, Extremes etc.) Depressions, Extremes etc.) –– Partly Limited Partly Limited by Resolution of CMIP3by Resolution of CMIP3

�� The response of ENSO to Global WarmingThe response of ENSO to Global Warming

�� The future strength of ENSOThe future strength of ENSO--Monsoon linkMonsoon link

Current Gaps in Current Gaps in Modeling/ObservationsModeling/Observations�� Problems with the current generation of coupled Problems with the current generation of coupled

models in simulating some features of mean models in simulating some features of mean monsoon and its interannual/decadal variabilitymonsoon and its interannual/decadal variability

�� Large biases in the simulated ENSO Large biases in the simulated ENSO characteristics and its telecharacteristics and its tele--connection with connection with MonsoonMonsoon

�� Role of Regional Aerosols on the Monsoon and Role of Regional Aerosols on the Monsoon and their nontheir non--explicit inclusion in coupled simulationsexplicit inclusion in coupled simulations

�� Large gaps in observations (both on land and Large gaps in observations (both on land and ocean) leading to problems with modeling tropical ocean) leading to problems with modeling tropical convection, particularly over the monsoon regionconvection, particularly over the monsoon region

Thank you!Thank you!

Some Aspects of Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Its ENSO Some Aspects of Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Its ENSO

Teleconnections as simulated by AR4 Models in 20Teleconnections as simulated by AR4 Models in 20thth CenturyCentury

Lin et al. 2006, J. ClimateLin et al. 2006, J. ClimateKrishna Kumar et al, 2009Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

Mean Monsoon RainfallMean Monsoon Rainfall Monsoon and ENSOMonsoon and ENSO Tropical Waves; MJOsTropical Waves; MJOs

New Observational ProgramsNew Observational Programs

�� AMY (Asian Monsoon Years, 2007AMY (Asian Monsoon Years, 2007--2012, a multi2012, a multi--national national program under WCRP)program under WCRP)

�� YOTC (Year of Tropical Convection :2008YOTC (Year of Tropical Convection :2008--2012, WCRP2012, WCRP--WWRP/THORPEX joint Initiative)WWRP/THORPEX joint Initiative)

�� MAHASRI (Monsoon Asian HydroMAHASRI (Monsoon Asian Hydro--Atmosphere Scientific Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative; 2006Research and Prediction Initiative; 2006--2015,WCRP)2015,WCRP)

�� CTCZ (Continental Tropical Convergence Zone : 2009, a CTCZ (Continental Tropical Convergence Zone : 2009, a multimulti--year program under Indian Climate Research Program)year program under Indian Climate Research Program)

�� CAIPEEX (Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation CAIPEEX (Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment: 2009Enhancement Experiment: 2009--2012, a multi2012, a multi--institutional institutional program under IITM/MoES, Govt. of India)program under IITM/MoES, Govt. of India)