Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in

Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in

Mekong River Delta and Affect on Farmer’s Livelihood

AIACC AS 07

Nguyen Thi Hien ThuanSub-Institute of Hydrometeorology of South Vietnam

Suppakorn ChinvannoSEA START RC

CONTENTSCONTENTS

1.1. ObjectivesObjectives

2.2. Scope and method of study Scope and method of study

3.3. Main activitiesMain activities

4.4. Major findingsMajor findings

Objectives:Objectives:

To understand the long term impacts of climate To understand the long term impacts of climate change on rice production in Mekong River Deltachange on rice production in Mekong River Delta

To understand the vulnerability of community in To understand the vulnerability of community in the Mekong River Delta from impacts of climate the Mekong River Delta from impacts of climate change on rice productionchange on rice production

To seek adaptation option(s) on such impacts to To seek adaptation option(s) on such impacts to minimize vulnerability to the communityminimize vulnerability to the community

Analysis of impact of climate change on rice Analysis of impact of climate change on rice productionproduction

To simulate the yield of rain-fed rice production in To simulate the yield of rain-fed rice production in the MRD under different climate scenarios (1.5 x the MRD under different climate scenarios (1.5 x CO2 and 2 x CO2) using DSSAT crop modeling CO2 and 2 x CO2) using DSSAT crop modeling technique.technique.

Climate scenarios with outputs from CCAM regional Climate scenarios with outputs from CCAM regional climate model, are generated to analyze the climate model, are generated to analyze the change of rice yield in the region.change of rice yield in the region.

Produce climate risk map of rice production by Produce climate risk map of rice production by comparing the change in the yield of rice from comparing the change in the yield of rice from observed average actual yield and the result from observed average actual yield and the result from the simulation.the simulation.

Scope and Method of study:

Assessment on climate risk at the Assessment on climate risk at the commune levelcommune level

Conduct field surveyConduct field survey Analyze how the community livelihood may Analyze how the community livelihood may

depend on the rice productiondepend on the rice production Analyze the capacity to cope with disasterAnalyze the capacity to cope with disaster Produce vulnerability map – consider the Produce vulnerability map – consider the

community which have household income community which have household income reduction beyond “acceptable” level and does reduction beyond “acceptable” level and does not have sufficient alternate source of income not have sufficient alternate source of income to maintain their livelihood.to maintain their livelihood.

Scope and Method of study:

Main Activities:Main Activities:

Phase 1:Phase 1: Simulation of the yield of rice production using DSSAT Simulation of the yield of rice production using DSSAT

4.0. Need data from VN as input to the model include: 4.0. Need data from VN as input to the model include: crop management data, soil properties, weather data crop management data, soil properties, weather data (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours).temperature, sunshine hours).

Phase 2: Phase 2: Field survey assessment to cover 4 provinces of the Field survey assessment to cover 4 provinces of the

MRD of Viet Nam: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap, An MRD of Viet Nam: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap, An Giang. Coverage of assessment in each province Giang. Coverage of assessment in each province covers 2 communes per district and 4 districts per covers 2 communes per district and 4 districts per province. province.

Study areas

- Located in the MRD in VN

- Rice production is a major agricultural activity, >1 mil ton of rice product per year

- Rice production is highly affected by climate factors (floods/inundations, droughts, inappropriate rains, …

4 provinces: Long An, CÇn Th¬, §ång Th¸p, An Giang

Rice growing areas in MRD

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Years

Are

as (1

000h

a)

Winter-springSummer-autumnSeasonal

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice ProductionImpacts of Climate Change on Rice Production

Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Tmin, SRAD) at different COTmin, SRAD) at different CO22 concentration concentration

1.0xCO1.0xCO22: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline

1.5xCO1.5xCO22: 2040 - 2049: 2040 - 2049

2.0xCO2.0xCO2 2 : 2066 – 2075: 2066 – 2075

The simulation has been made for each year of the 3 The simulation has been made for each year of the 3 scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been selected: dry/median/wet years selected: dry/median/wet years

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production: DSSAT crop model simulation results

DSSAT software has been used for rice yield simulation for 1978 – 2002 for each of 4 provinces with:- 2 rice types: IR64, IR66 (short-term rice ~ 90-95 days)- 3 soil types: Alluvium, shallow acid sulfate soil, deep acid sulfate soil- Irrigated and non-irrigated crops

Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Tmin, SRAD) at different CO2 concentrations

1.0xCO2: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline

1.5xCO2: 2040 - 2049

2.0xCO2 : 2066 – 2075

The simulation has been made for each period of the 3 scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been selected: dry/median/wet years

Sim. yields vs obs. yield for WS rice (Long An)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Simulated yield

Obs yield

Sim. yields vs obs. yield for SA rice (Long An)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Simulated yield

Observed yield

CCAM CCAM rainfall rainfall

scenariosscenariosDry/wet year Dry/wet year

for for 1.0CO1.0CO22 (upper)(upper)

1.5CO1.5CO2 2 (middle), (middle), 2.0CO2.0CO22(lower)(lower)

Change in rice yield in different CC Change in rice yield in different CC scenariosscenarios

(average value for each scenario compared with (average value for each scenario compared with baseline)baseline)

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0%

1.5 CO2 WS 1.8 1.3 0.1 2.1

1.5 CO2 SA 3 -3 3 0

2 CO2 WS -8 -8 -11 -11

2 CO2 SA -18 -12 -9 -14

An Giang Dong Thap Can Tho Long An

Rice yield anomalies of different scenarios (%)

Winter – Spring 1.5CO2 2.0CO2

Dry Med Wet Dry Med Wet

AN GIANG 4 -2 5 -7 4 -9

CAN THO -6 14 2 -14 1 -8

DONG THAP 0 12 5 -10 -2 -10

LONG AN -5 13 7 -14 -5 -6

Rice yield anomalies of different scenarios (%)

Summer-Autumn 1.5CO2 2.0CO2

Dry Med Wet Dry Med Wet

AN GIANG -10 -2 10 -42 -57 21

CAN THO -9 0 11 -27 -24 2

DONG THAP 3 -10 8 -34 -53 -5

LONG AN -16 3 9 -31 -26 -3

Rice yield anomalies of different climate scenarios

Winter-Spring Rice 1,5CO2

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

AN GIANG CAN THO DONG THAP LONG AN

Dry Med Wet

Summer-Autumn Rice 1.5 CO2

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40


Dry Med Wet

Winter-Spring Rice 2.0CO2

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40


Dry Med Wet

Summer-Autumn Rice 2.0CO2

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40


Dry Med Wet

Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios

2.0xCO2.0xCO2 2 scenarioscenario

Winter-Spring riceWinter-Spring riceDry Median WetDry Median Wet


Summer-Autumn riceSummer-Autumn rice


Dry Median WetDry Median Wet

Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios


Field SurveyField Survey– The survey was conducted at 4 provinces of MRD: Long The survey was conducted at 4 provinces of MRD: Long

An, Can Tho, Dong Thap and An Giang x 4 districts x 2 An, Can Tho, Dong Thap and An Giang x 4 districts x 2 communes, total of 40 agricultural officials + 64 farmers.communes, total of 40 agricultural officials + 64 farmers.

– Information collected from survey includes:Information collected from survey includes:

General household condition (Total land area; crop area – 1 General household condition (Total land area; crop area – 1 crop, 2 crops, 3 crops per year; rice growing area; population, crop, 2 crops, 3 crops per year; rice growing area; population, labour,…)labour,…)

Household economic conditions (total income, income from rice Household economic conditions (total income, income from rice production, other income sources, Hh expenditure, surplus production, other income sources, Hh expenditure, surplus revenue, land ownership,…)revenue, land ownership,…)

Climate risk groups (based on multiple indicators)Climate risk groups (based on multiple indicators)

Coping capacity & strategyCoping capacity & strategy

Climate Risk Analysis: Measurement Multi-criteria, multiple indicatorsMulti-criteria, multiple indicators

IndexIndex WeightWeight Measured/Calculated asMeasured/Calculated as Value Value ScoringScoring

Household Economic ConditionHousehold Economic Condition

11 Sufficient household Sufficient household productivityproductivity

11 Total HH income / Total HH ExpenditureTotal HH income / Total HH Expenditure 1 - 31 - 3

22 Surplus household revenueSurplus household revenue 11 Percentage of (HH income – HH expenditure) / HH Percentage of (HH income – HH expenditure) / HH ExpenditureExpenditure

1 - 31 - 3

33 Self-sustain rice Self-sustain rice consumptionconsumption

11 Produce sufficient rice for own consumption – Yes / NoProduce sufficient rice for own consumption – Yes / No 1 - 21 - 2

44 Land ownershipLand ownership 11 To indicate the critical production resource – Yes / NoTo indicate the critical production resource – Yes / No 1 - 21 - 2

Rice Production DependencyRice Production Dependency

55 Sustainable livelihood Sustainable livelihood without rice productionwithout rice production

22 Ratio of Total extra income / Total fixed expensesRatio of Total extra income / Total fixed expenses 2 - 62 - 6

66 Level of livelihood Level of livelihood dependency on rice dependency on rice productionproduction

22 percentage of household fixed expenses that rely on rice percentage of household fixed expenses that rely on rice income: (Total household expenditure - Extra income)/income: (Total household expenditure - Extra income)/Rice Rice incomeincome * 100 * 100

2 - 62 - 6

Coping CapacityCoping Capacity

77 External financial support External financial support mechanismmechanism

22 Accessible to external loan to support rice production – Yes Accessible to external loan to support rice production – Yes / No/ No

2 - 42 - 4

88 Alternate source of incomeAlternate source of income 22 Sufficient alternate source of income to maintain livelihoodSufficient alternate source of income to maintain livelihood 2 - 62 - 6

Possible range of vulnerability value scoringPossible range of vulnerability value scoring 12 to 3212 to 32

Climate Risk Analysis

Climate risk groups: value Scoring:Climate risk groups: value Scoring:12 – 19 = Low vulnerability12 – 19 = Low vulnerability (13 Households)(13 Households)>19 – 26 = Moderate vulnerability>19 – 26 = Moderate vulnerability (34 Households)(34 Households)> 26 – 32 = High vulnerability> 26 – 32 = High vulnerability (17 Households)(17 Households)

Climate Risk Groups

20%

53%

27%

Low Mod High

Climate RiskClimate Risk

Farmer's experienced climate variability that affects livelihood and rice production

Drought in

winter-

spring crop

Dry spells in

rainy season

Prolonged rain

Too sunny in dry

season,

drought

Long-lasting flood

Extended

flooding areas

Deep inundation

Low vul. 3 2 12 9 7 2 5

Mod vul 6 7 21 10 22 7 13

High vul 2 5 8 5 12 8 8

Low vulnerable farmersLow vulnerable farmers (13 Households)(13 Households)Moderate vulnerable farmersModerate vulnerable farmers (34 Households)(34 Households)High vulnerable farmersHigh vulnerable farmers (17 Households)(17 Households)

Coping strategiesCoping strategies

Experience in coping with climate change to reduce adverse impacts

Normally flooded

Deeply flooded

Long-lasting flood

Drought for long time

Rain for long time

Low vulnerable group

13

Households

pumping, embankment, drainage pumping, drainage canals, dredging,,

fish breeding buy drying machine

short term rice, appropriate crop

earlier harvest

out of control


Normally flooded

Deeply flooded

Long-lasting flood


Rain for long time

Moderate vulnerable group

34Households

Pumping, embankment, drainage pumping, more irrigation canal, dredging

short term rice,

appropriate crop

2 crops, appropriatecrop and

breed

other crops, Drought- resistant Varieties

More solid stem breed

Machineryintervention

fertilize buy drying machine

earlier sowing

earlier harvest

no crops, unable to

cope



Normally flooded

Deeply flooded

Long-lasting flood


Rain for long time

HighVulnerable

group

17Households

pumping, embankment, drainage irrigation, drainage, canal and river dredging

embankment.strengthning canal system

reducing water reduce No of crops/yr,

change sowing time

earlier harvest ,

later sowing

Short-term rice,appropriate crop,

appropriate production zones

short term rice

Drought- resistant varieties

unable coping live with flood


CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSRice production in the Rice production in the MRDMRD tends to reduce in the future tends to reduce in the future from impacts of CC. The adverse impacts are more from impacts of CC. The adverse impacts are more serious in extreme years, especially in dry conditions. serious in extreme years, especially in dry conditions.

The multi-criteria technique is used in the assessment of The multi-criteria technique is used in the assessment of rain-fed farmer vulnerability to climate impact. A method rain-fed farmer vulnerability to climate impact. A method has been set up to categorize vulnerability groups, their has been set up to categorize vulnerability groups, their socio-economic condition and the sensitivity to climate socio-economic condition and the sensitivity to climate impact on rice production. impact on rice production.

Farmers in the MekongFarmers in the Mekong River delta area seems to have River delta area seems to have sufficient capacity to cope with the impact of climate sufficient capacity to cope with the impact of climate change on rice production due to the high productivity change on rice production due to the high productivity level and existing coping mechanism. However, due to level and existing coping mechanism. However, due to heavy dependency on rice production and the lack of CC heavy dependency on rice production and the lack of CC awareness, a large number of faming households are awareness, a large number of faming households are moderately –highly vulnerable to CC.moderately –highly vulnerable to CC.

Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in

Mekong River Delta and Affect on Farmer’s Livelihood

Thank You for your Attention!Thank You for your Attention!

AIACC AS 07

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Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in