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Impact of Economic Downturn on Competitive ERCOT IDR Load. Methodology. Extracted the LSEGUFE cuts for the most recent settlement BUSIDRRQ for competitive load only Excluded initial settlements January 1, 2007 – December 31, 2008 Summed IDR cuts by Weather Zone - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Impact of Economic Downturnon Competitive ERCOT IDR Load
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Methodology • Extracted the LSEGUFE cuts for the most recent settlement
– BUSIDRRQ for competitive load only– Excluded initial settlements– January 1, 2007 – December 31, 2008
• Summed IDR cuts by Weather Zone• Estimated models using 1-1-07 to 9-30-08, but excluding:
– Hurricane Edouard• Coast – 8-3-08 to 8-9-08• All other Weather Zones – 8-4-08 to 8-6-08
– Hurricane Ike• Coast – 9-9-08 to 9-30-08
• Generated model estimates at the Weather Zone level up through 12-31-08
• Compared actuals to estimates at the Weather Zone and Ercot IDR total load level for 10-15-08 to 12-31-08– No economic impact observed for IDR load prior to 10-15-2008
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Model Statistics for Daily Energy Estimates
• IDR Total Load Level:– R-Square - .944– MAPE – 2.17%– MAD – 5.25 GWH
• IDR Coast Model:– R-Square - .855– MAPE – 2.35%– MAD – 2.58 GWH
• IDR NCent Model:– R-Square - .950– MAPE – 1.85%– MAD – 1.44 GWH
• Other Weather Zone composite Model:– R-Square - .391– MAPE – 6.08 %– MAD – 3.70 GWH
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Model Actual GWH Diff
ERCOT IDR TOTAL
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1/1/0
8
1/31
/08
3/1/0
8
3/31
/08
4/30
/08
5/30
/08
6/29
/08
7/29
/08
8/28
/08
9/27
/08
10/27
/08
11/26
/08
12/26
/08
ERCOT Total IDR Daily Load
January 1 – December 31, 2008
GWH
• Significant Load Reduction in September due to Hurricane Ike
• Some residual hurricane reduction in October followed by economic downturn impact through year-end
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COAST
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/1/0
8
1/31
/08
3/1/0
8
3/31
/08
4/30
/08
5/30
/08
6/29
/08
7/29
/08
8/28
/08
9/27
/08
10/27
/08
11/26
/08
12/26
/08
Model Actual GWH Diff
ERCOT Coast IDR Daily Load
January 1 – December 31, 2008
GWH
• Significant Load Reduction in September due to Hurricane Ike
• Some residual hurricane reduction in October followed by significant economic downturn impact through year-end
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NCENT
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/1/0
8
1/31
/08
3/1/0
8
3/31
/08
4/30
/08
5/30
/08
6/29
/08
7/29
/08
8/28
/08
9/27
/08
10/27
/08
11/26
/08
12/26
/08
Model Actual GWH Diff
ERCOT NCent IDR Daily Load
January 1 – December 31, 2008
GWH
• Modest economic downturn impact mid October through year-end
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OTHER WZONES
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/1/0
8
1/31
/08
3/1/0
8
3/31
/08
4/30
/08
5/30
/08
6/29
/08
7/29
/08
8/28
/08
9/27
/08
10/27
/08
11/26
/08
12/26
/08
Model Actual GWH Diff
ERCOT Other WZones IDR Daily Load
January 1 – December 31, 2008
GWH
• No apparent economic downturn impact through year-end
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ERCOT IDR Load DifferencesActual Load – Model Estimate
• The major economic downturn impact has occurred in the Coast Weather Zone and appears to be trending to a more severe level
• Coast IDR load reduction accounts for 79% of the ERCOT total reduction
• NCent IDR load reduction is consistently negative but does not appear to be trending down
• Other Weather Zone IDR load reduction is more difficult to assess because of modeling limitations but may be reacting more slowly to the economic downturn
GWH % GWH % GWH % GWH %January 151.9 2.1% 27.0 0.9% -1.2 0.0% 126.1 7.1%
February 156.8 2.3% 109.4 3.6% 19.9 0.9% 27.5 1.6%
March 97.9 1.3% 61.4 1.8% -12.5 -0.5% 48.9 2.7%
April -70.0 -0.9% 2.8 0.1% 13.3 0.6% -86.1 -4.7%
May 259.2 3.2% 30.3 0.9% 44.1 1.8% 184.8 9.1%
June 49.5 0.6% 24.5 0.7% 2.5 0.1% 22.5 1.2%
July -165.0 -2.0% -120.9 -3.3% -18.1 -0.6% -25.9 -1.4%
August -42.4 -0.5% -48.8 -1.4% 28.9 1.0% -22.5 -1.2%
Total - (Jan - Aug) 437.9 0.7% 85.6 0.3% 76.9 0.4% 275.4 1.8%
September -574.1 -7.4% -730.0 -21.3% 77.8 3.1% 78.1 4.4%
October (1-14) -168.7 -4.7% -19.7 -1.3% -38.0 -3.3% -110.9 -12.5%
October (15-31) -89.8 -2.2% -72.7 -3.9% -71.1 -5.4% 53.9 5.4%
November -335.7 -4.6% -260.3 -8.0% -108.3 -4.9% 32.9 1.9%
December -423.1 -5.9% -338.8 -10.8% -72.5 -3.2% -11.8 -0.7%
Total - (Oct 15 - Dec) -848.6 -4.6% -671.8 -8.2% -251.9 -4.3% 75.0 1.7%
Total - 2008 -1,153.5 -1.3% -1335.9 -3.3% -135.1 -0.5% 317.6 1.4%
NCent Other2008
Ercot Total Coast
