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Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Impact of Sustainability and Environmental Factors on Technology Obsolescence
Jeffery C. Bricker Senior Director of Research - Honeywell UOP
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Outline of the talk
• Introduction
• Technology Obsolescence
• Non -Technical Factors
• Examples & Experience
• Anticipating Technology Obsolescence
• Conclusions
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Non-Technical Factors in Technology Obsolescence
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability 3
• Sustainability
• Regional Shifts in Resources: Feedstocks, Skilled Labor
• Legislative /Political/ Legal
• Planned Obsolescence
Examples and Learnings
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Sustainability
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability 4
Rhine River 1958
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Sustainability: History of Detergent IndustryBranched Detergent Alkylate
•1955-60, Due to poor biodegradation, pollution of lake and river waters from washing effluent raised serious concern
•The Branched structure of the paraffinic chain was identified as the primary cause of poor biodegradation
•Challenge was to make linear olefins in C12 carbon range to replace propylene tetramer as alkylation feed
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Alkyl Benzene Sulfonates Classifies into Groups
Opportunity Emerged for LAB Technology
Branched and linear chain
SO3H
CH3(CH2)6
Ionic surfactants:
Alkyl Benzene sulphonates
LAS: Linear Alkyl Benzene Sulfonate
(Alkyl Chain: C10 – C13)
SO3-Na+
SO3H
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Shale Gas Liquids Support Petrochemical Growth
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
2010 2015 2020 2025
BP
SD
, m
illi
on
s
Pentanes+
Butane
Propane
Ethane
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020kM
TA
Propylene Gap
Conventional Sources
Demand
Lower Cost Ethane Prompts Shift in Feedstock UsagePropylene Supply/Demand
January 2011 Source: CMAI
Wt-
% P
rod
uc
ed
fro
m F
ee
ds
toc
k
90%
100%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gas Oil
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Olefin Technologies
Propane
Ethane
NaphthaGas Oil
EthylenePropyleneC4 Olefins,C4
==
PyGas
Propane Dehydrogenation andMTO have “Taken- Off”
PDHPropane Dehydro
Steam CrackingThermal
Propylene
EthylenePropylene
Methane or Coal
MTOMethanol to Olefins
SynGas / MethanolReformer / Converter
Feedstocks Processes Products
Steam CrackingThermal
Ethylene
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Legislative / Legal / Sustainability Example
•MARPOL Sulfur Regulations set at 2020 (World Wide)
– + IMO requires Bunker at 0.5 % S (from 3.5% )
– + Fuel Oil is devalued
•Big Impact on Refiners Worldwide
– + Hydrocracking Conversion Refineries Poised
– + Exhaust Gas Scrubbers on Ships
– + Alternate Fuels
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Strategies to Capitalize on Obsolescence
•Understand Derivative Impact of World Wide Mega Trends; e.g. connected devices
•Energy Macro Market Analysis (worldwide)
•Organizational Core Strengths
•Cutting Edge Science that can be Employed across Technologies
•Future Scenario Analysis assuming more disruption than the base case
•Conduct Proof of Principle Idea Evaluation of your Big Ideas
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
What Disrupters Should We Anticipate
•Electric Car (e.g. Tesla) Usage Accelerates
•Potential New Combustion Engine Design
•Direct Natural Gas Conversion to Chemicals
•50 Billion Devices will be connected by 2020
– Impactful
•Sustainability and CO2 minimization
– Green Chemicals
– Renewable Energy & Fuels
– CO2 Capture & Re-use
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Renewable Gasoline GHG Emissions
Renewables Sources have a Significant Lower CO2 Footprint
PetroleumDiesel
PyGasoline:LoggingResidue
PyGasoline:Poplar
PyGasoline:Willow
PetroleumGasoline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Fuel Combustion
Fuel Transportation
Fuel Production
Transportation of Feedstocks
Feedstock Production, RMA
Feedstock Chemicals
g C
O2
eq
./M
J
Preliminary Model Results (Woody Feedstock)
Lifecycle GHG Thresholds in EISA
(% reduction from 2005 baseline)
Renewable fuela 20%
Advanced biofuel 50%
Biomass-based diesel 50%
Cellulosic biofuel 60%
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
US Renewable Transportation Fuel Market
• 36 B gallons of renewable transportation fuel by 2022
• Supply limitations will prevent refiners from achieving RFS2 targets
– Challenges in overcoming Ethanol blend wall
– Technology availability
– Feedstock availability
• State directives (LCFS) provide additional incentives
US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) Compliance with RFS2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
of
Eth
an
ol E
qu
iv.
GP
Y
Ethanol, corn based Biomass-Based Diesel (BBD)
Cellulosic Biofuel (CB) Advanced (BBD or CB)
IHS Forecast
* Ethanol equivalent based on energy content; for example 1 gallon of green diesel = 1.7 ethanol equivalent gallons
Estimates Targets
Sources: Volumes for 2014 & 2015 from PIRA Jan 2015; Volumes 2016-2020 from EPA
Demand from IHS Dec 2014 update
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
RTP - Rapid Thermal Processing
Decouples biomass conversion from energy generation
Electricity Production
Upgrade to Transport
Fuels(Gasoline,
Jet & Diesel)
Fuel Oil Substitution
Agricultural Waste
• Transportable fuel
• Energy densification relative to biomass
• Maximum liquid yield 65 – 75 Wt-%RTPUnit
Forest Residue
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Forecast: Aviation Industry CO2 Emissions
Low carbon fuels a key part of emissions reduction
Using less fuelEfficient Airplanes
Operational Efficiency
Changing the fuel Sustainable Biofuels
Key Drivers of Emissions Reductions
Carbon Neutral Timeline 2050
CO
2E
mis
sio
ns
Baseline
Low Carbon Fuels
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Green Jet Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)
• Green Jet Fuel (Bio-SPK) has equal or higher energy intensity as fossil jet fuel
• Combustion of Bio-SPK does not count towards GHG
– Carbon cycle for plants
• No significant land use changes (LUC)
– Camelina displaces fallow weeds in
crop rotation with wheat
– No food production is displaced by
camelina seed cultivation
• Combustion of Bio-SPK does not count towards GHG
0 50 100
Cultivation
Seed Transport
Oil Extraction and Refining
Oil Transport
Fuel Production
Effluent
Fuel Transport
Green Jet Fuel
Conventional Jet Fuel
g CO2 Eq. / MJ
68% Reduction
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Intensity
Fossil Fuel
Bio-SPK
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Key Properties of Green Jet
Production Viability DemonstratedFuel Samples from Different Sources Meet Key Properties
DescriptionJet A-1 Specs
Jatropha Derived
SPK
Camelina Derived
SPK
Jatropha/ Algae
Derived SPK
Flash Point, oC Min 38 46.5 42.0 41.0
Freezing Point, oC Max -47 -57.0 -63.5 -54.5
JFTOT@300oC
Filter dP, mmHg max 25 0.0 0.0 0.2
Tube Deposit Less Than < 3 1.0 <1 1.0
Net heat of combustion, MJ/kg min 42.8 44.3 44.0 44.2
Viscosity, -20 deg C, mm2/sec max 8.0 3.66 3.33 3.51
Sulfur, ppm max 3000 <0.0 <0.0 <0.0
Over 6000 US Gallons of bio-SPK made
UOP Green Jet
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
The AltAir Renewable Jet Fuel Project
Technology: UOP Renewable Jet Fuel Process
Product: Green Jet Fuel
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Specifics:
Deoxygenation
Reactor
Hydrocracking &
Isomerization
Reactor
Product
Separation
Vegetable Oils,
Animal Fats
& Greases
Feedstocks Acid Gas
(to treating)
Water
(to treating)
Green Jet
Green Diesel
Light Fuels
Hydrogen
2014 Start-up – Very successful Operation
United Airlines utilizes AltAir lower-carbon, renewable jet fuel on Flights Today
1st full-scale plant dedicated renewable jet fuel for commercial use
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Approaches for CO2 Utilization
Reductant Reaction Pathway
I. Hydrogen Reverse WGS + Chemical Synthesis
CO2 + H2 CO + H2O
syn-gas chemicals or F-T fuels
Methanation
II. CH4 Dry ReformingWGS Fuels/Chemicals
CH4 + CO2 2H2 + 2 CO
Dry gasification of coal
III. Electrical Power Direct electrochemical reduction
CO2 + e- CO or H2CO
IV. Solar Visible (400-700 nm) Pathways
1. Solar photochemical (direct CO2)
2. Solar Biological (Algae)
3. Solar H2 (water splitting)
Doable but Expensive
High Potential-needs catalytic process
Very Long Range R&D
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Summary for Discussion
• Market and Non-Technical Factors will continue to be Disruptive to the Energy, Refinery and Chemical Industries
• This always creates Technology Opportunities for those Organizations that are ready
• Strategic Planning to Cover Alternative Scenarios is Important
– If the Planning is done in a way that is supported by Technology Platforms important to the company, best case scenario
Managing Technology for Growth and Profitability
Thank youwww.gpca.org.ae