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Impact of the crisis on European workers

Assembling national trends and reports

Guy Van Gyes

UNI Europe Post&Logistics Conference, 26 September 2013, Evora (PT)

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Main sources

• Eurofound reports: synthesis of national expert reports & available comparative statistics– Wages and working conditions in the crisis (2011)– Impact of the crisis on working conditions (2013)– Contact person Eurofound:

oscar.vargas@eurofound.europa.eu– My reading/interpretation of these reports (not

necessarily the view of the European agency)• CAWIE study (TURI-network; www.turi-network.eu):

wage&CB trends in the Euro-zone

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Overview

• What has changed in the world of work?– Employment conditions– Career development and mobility– Working time and work-life balance– Work organisation and psychosocial risks– Health and well-being at work

• Policy role/reaction– Flexibilisation of labour regulation– Reforms of industrial relations system

• Alternative agenda – Strategic levers

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WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE WORLD OF WORK?

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Employment conditions• Job insecurity bites everywhere

– Strong increases in countries hard hit by crisis• EL: 31% convinced they will loose their job within the next six

months (EQLS, 2012)– Job insecurity trend less dramatic in Nordic countries;

• flexicurity DK: % job insecure only increased from 9 to 11%; unemployment with 3.8% to almost 8%

• Trends in temporary employment diverge– High start rate = decrease (ES, PL)– Reforms facilitating temporary contract: CZ, EE; LT, RO– Involuntary

• Wage freezing (not the first cost to cut)– Bail out countries: cuts => EL: 6.4% drop in average

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Career development and mobility

• Training:– Less career, more functional– State training investment => less polarisation; diminished ‘training

gap’• Less job mobility: People stick or have to stick to

their job• Migration patterns changed

– Emigration in Eastern Europe again on the rise– South + Ireland: again migrating– Migrant more hit by crisis in receiving countries

• Male more than female

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Working time and work-life balance

• Less work - lower average working hours - more part-time work - decline in overtime– Effect of short-time work schemes (saved jobs)

• Involuntary part-time; unpaid overtime• No expansion of working at unsocial hours• Work-life balance only under pressure in

countries hit hard by the crisis (ES, IE)• Gender gaps changing: male more hit by the

crisis

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Work organisation and psychosocial risks

• Increase of stress-at-work – Insecurity factor

• Work intensification ‘balanced’ by more job control in restructuring workplaces

• Conflict, bullying and violence rising problem (but crisis the cause?)

• No crisis-related policies

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Health and well-being at work

• Drop in absenteeism – Drop in accidents-at-work rate

• Job insecurity: effect on general health (suicide rates)

• Job satisfaction on the rise: ‘people more satisfied with what they have’

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Job insecurity and well-being

Very unlikely Unlikely Neither unlikely nor likely

Likely Very likely0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

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-2

-1

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2007 - Prevalence % 2010 - Prevalence % 2007 - WHO-5 loss 2010 - WHO-5 loss

% P

reva

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WH

O-5

loss

(%

poi

nts)

Reference category

• Need to continue monitoring (new results coming from various countries not

Influenced by the crisis Possible influence of the crisis – only in some sectors or some countries or some period of time – composition effect to be considered

Megatrends which “seems” to be fostered by the crisis

Job insecurity

Wages

Involuntary conditions of employment

Intensification of work

Lower rate of accidents

Overall job satisfaction

Increase of undeclared work

Temporary employment

Average weekly working hours

Work-life balance

Part-time work

Psychological risks (Stress)

Conclusion

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To conclude: trends

• Less work – more insecurity and stress – less choice and opportunities• Positive findings on other indicators (job satisfaction, absenteeism,

accidents, active jobs)– Reality or lowered expectations or composition effect (‘bad’ jobs

cut)?• More ‘scars’ to come

– Career penalty of a difficult entry in the labour market– Effect of enduring job insecurity on well-being– What kind of new jobs? Jobs cut in industry: what will be the

replacement jobs• Not all in it together

– Particular countries– Particular groups (low-skilled, young, migrants)

Countries: Changes in GDP and uneployment

Very strong economicchange

Strong economic change

Better economic situation

Changes in regulationsabout working conditions and/or employment reforms

Job insecurity

Temporary involuntary

workInvoluntary part-time

Intensity at work (various

indicators)Work-life balance Absenteeism

Job satisfaction

Poland - ++ = na + + =Germany = = + = - - ++Austria = + + - - na -Italy - - - = - + naEstonia - na - na na + +Portugal -- - - na na + +Spain -- - -- - - na ++Ireland -- --- --- - - na +Lithuania -- -- -- = na = naGreece --- - -- na na na na

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POLICY ROLE/REACTIONS

Policy reactions 1 (2008-2009)

• Short working-time measures as positive reaction to counter the employment shock in the first crisis period

• Focus on employment measures (cf. training)• Social partners discussions: very polarised and

not in driving position• Employers: flexibilisation; too high labour

costs; Unions: fear of precariousness; wages/income as driver

Policy reaction 2: re-installment neo-liberal mantrasMainstream explanations and policy conclusions

20 06 2013Dr. Thorsten Schulten

Explanation: Crisis is a crisis of competitiveness Wages are the main variable for

competitiveness Labour market rigidities hamper adaptation

and increase unemployment

Policy conclusion: Structural reforms at the labour market

and in the wage-setting systems

Policy reactions 2a: flexibilisation strategies

Table 12: Crisis policy reforms related to working conditions Overview of reported reforms in national contributions with impact on working

conditions (excluding wages and training)

Easing of employment protection legislation

Facilitating temporary contracts

Liberalising working time

regulation

More strict rules for sickness leave/benefit

Greece x x

Italy x x

Spain x x

Portugal x x x

Estonia x x

Lithuania x x x

Romania x x x

Hungary x

Czech Republic

x

Poland x

Norway has also introduced more strict rules for sickness leave benefits; not included: short work schemes, wage interventions and training policies Source: national contributions

1. Analysis: Most significant changes in industrial relations practices:

Dr. Thorsten Schulten

Reforms of collective bargaining 2009-2013:Termination/Abolition of national collective bargaining

More possibilities for companies to derogate from sectoral agreements

Priority for company agreements; abolition of the favourability principle

Stricter rules for extension of collective agreementsReduction of the after-effect of collective agreementsCompany agreements signed by non-union representatives

Beyond? Inclusive growth, flexicurity, sustainable work, …• No reports (yet) of ‘spectacular’ innovations• Deriving from the report

– Continued and increased attention to psychosocial risks key– Segmentation between a core and peripheral workforce is

enforced in recent years at many places. Flexibilisation means ‘more’ for the first and ‘less choice’ for the latter.

– The different gender effect of the crisis – males are hit harder by the crisis - leads to new challenges, but maybe also to new solutions to improve gender equality.

– Restructuring and downsizing is a fact of stress and insecurity, but it creates also opportunities to make transformations in job design and work organisation in order to strive for ‘active, smarter, sustainable work’ instead of ‘passive, strained, stressful work’.

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To conclude: policy perspective

• Crisis policy reforms in East and South => flexibilisation effect => more to work?– Easing of dismissal procedures– Removing barriers for temporary contracts– Liberalisering working time regulation– More strict rules sickness leave

• Where is the ‘security’ aspect? Where are ‘quality of work measures’ to promote ‘sustainable work’

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Crisis context• Less work = less choice = more insecurity = less reward• Definite breakthrough – European level of socio-economic

governance– Beggar-thy-neighbour policies– German wage dumping leadership– Dismantling (?) of Southern model of social dialogue

• Flexibilisation policies are on the rise again (East & South), not flexicurity– Easing of dismissal procedures– Removing barriers for temporary contracts– Liberalisation working time regulation– More strict rules sickness leave

3. Wages and the Euro Crisis Alternative Agenda for European Wage PolicyInternational Labour Organisation (ILO) Collective bargaining as a core instrument for economic, industrial, employment and social policy Strengthening of collective bargaining at all levels strengthening of mechanism to extend sectoral agreements and to increase bargaining coverage strengthening of minimum wages which should guarantee decent wage levels promoting not wage competition but (real) wage developments inline with productivity

20 06 2013Dr. Thorsten Schulten

3. Wages and the Euro Crisis Alternative explanations and policy conclusions

20 06 2013Dr. Thorsten Schulten

Explanation: Wages are not the main reason for lack

competitiveness or economic imbalances in Europe

Real wage developments lagging behind productivity growth dampen domestic demand and a produce deflationary spiral of downward wages competition

Current EU policy of austerity and structural reforms accelerate deflationary wage competition and promotes economic stagnation

Collectively agreed wages and labour productivity in the Euro area 2000 = 100

20 06 2013Dr. Thorsten Schulten

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• Transnational wage policy– Coordination exist already (only without the union and narrow-

based; German wage leadership)• Taking wages out of competition = solidaristic wage policy• “uses a deliberate, centrally force to counteract … the centrifugal force

of the market, i.e. its tendency towards wage differentiation• Demand-driven economic growth= income of the middle classes is

driving the world economy growing inequality

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Crisis context• Less work = less choice = more insecurity• Definite breakthrough – European level of socio-economic

governance– Beggar-thy-neighbour policies– German wage dumping leadership– Dismantling (?) of Southern model of social dialogue

• Flexibilisation policies are on the rise again (East & South), not flexicurity– Easing of dismissal procedures– Removing barriers for temporary contracts– Liberalisering working time regulation– More strict rules sickness leave