Impact ReginaApril 2016

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Economic indicators april 2016Executive Summary

The Regina economy continues to grow at a modest pace despite a retrenchment in resource prices:

• Year to Employment growth (+1.1%) is still positive and ahead of 2015 annual growth of 0.9%.

• Year to date employment was up over the same period in 2015 in agriculture (100), resource extraction (350), manufacturing (800), wholesale and retail trade (1,250), finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,700), professional, scientific and technical services (900), business, building and other support services (500), information and cultural industries (800), accommodation and food services (1,350), health (450) and other services (450).

• Employment declined over the same period in 2015 in utilities (-700), construction (-2,350), transportation and warehousing (-950) education services (-550), and public administration (-2,550).

• The recovery in resource and manufacturing employment indicates that resource prices may have bottomed out.

• The average year to date unemployment rate remains low at 4.6%, only slightly ahead of 2015 levels.

• So far in 2016, housing starts have recovered (+6%). This is also reflected in residential building permits, up over 2015. However, industrial, commercial, and institutional permits are down over 2015, driving down total permits (-0.5%) and construction industry employment.

• With low inflation, interest rates are not expected to increase through much of 2016.

• 2015 population was up 1.9 % over 2014 on the strength of international and intraprovincial migration. This can be expected to continue through 2016 with continued employment growth spurring continued in-migration. On average, between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, Canada’s census metropolitan areas (CMAs) grew by 1.2 per cent.

• The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Regina’s economy to post a 1.1 per cent real GDP gain in 2016, following a 0.3 per cent dip in 2015, the first drop since 1995.

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Month toMonth Chg % Chg

Year toDate Chg % Chg

Feb2015

Feb2016

Feb 2015

Feb 2016

Employment 135,900 136,700 800 0.6% 136,250 137,700 1,450 1.1%

Unemployment Rate (%)

4.6 4.9 0.3 6.5% 4.3 4.6 0.3 7.1%

Jan2015

Jan2016

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Consumer Price Index (2002=100)

130.1 131.6 1.5 1.2% 129.5 131.6 2.1 1.6%

Housing Starts Total (Units)

53 102 49 92.5% 150 159 9 6.0%

Building Permits Total ($000s)

33,970 33,805 -165 -0.5%

33,970 33,805 -165 -0.5%

2014 2015

Population (persons) July 1

236,995 241,422 4,427 1.9%

2015 2016f

Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M)

14,075 14,235 160 1.1%

Sources: Statistics Canada Cansim 2820128, 0270034, 326-0020, 0260003, 0510056, and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Autumn 2015.Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted.

Negative Trend

Positive Trend

No Signi� cant Change

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Economic indicators april 2016

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spEcial rEport

rEgina dEmographics & population2015 Regina Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) population was up 1.9 % over 2014 on the strength of international and intraprovincial migration. This far outstripped average Canadian CMA population growth. On average, between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, Canadian CMAs grew by 1.2 per cent.

Sources of Population Growth

Driving population growth since 2009/2010 has been international in-migration (immigration) and to lesser extents the natural increase (births less deaths) and migration from within the province (net intraprovincial migration). Migration from other provinces (net intraprovincial migration) has been either low or negative.

2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015

Births 2770 2899 2912 3003 3082 3148

Deaths 1618 1692 1699 1713 1731 1748

Immigrants 2367 2721 4102 3472 3905 3594

Emigrants 133 174 246 134 179 181

Net interprovincial migration

229 -69 410 -76 -669 -974

Net intraprovincial migration

302 735 808 646 1139 1139

Source: Cansim Table 051-0057

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Historical Population by Age Group

Since 2001 Regina CMA population by age group is as follows:

0-19 20-44 45-64 65+ Total0-19 as %

of Total20-44 as %

of Total45-64 as %

of Total65+ as % of

Total

2001 54,191 75,256 43,479 24,105 197,031 27.5% 38.2% 22.1% 12.2%

2002 53,433 74,433 44,708 24,385 196,959 27.1% 37.8% 22.7% 12.4%

2003 52,961 74,497 45,993 24,611 198,062 26.7% 37.6% 23.2% 12.4%

2004 52,291 74,532 47,521 24,798 199,142 26.3% 37.4% 23.9% 12.5%

2005 51,215 74,198 49,015 25,006 199,434 25.7% 37.2% 24.6% 12.5%

2006 50,319 74,018 50,394 25,411 200,142 25.1% 37.0% 25.2% 12.7%

2007 50,309 74,173 52,166 25,833 202,481 24.8% 36.6% 25.8% 12.8%

2008 50,666 74,454 53,890 26,230 205,240 24.7% 36.3% 26.3% 12.8%

2009 51,262 76,011 55,698 26,619 209,590 24.5% 36.3% 26.6% 12.7%

2010 51,534 77,634 57,272 27,042 213,482 24.1% 36.4% 26.8% 12.7%

2011 51,899 79,878 58,336 27,597 217,710 23.8% 36.7% 26.8% 12.7%

2012 53,205 84,358 58,948 28,450 224,961 23.7% 37.5% 26.2% 12.6%

2013 54,305 88,040 59,566 29,341 231,252 23.5% 38.1% 25.8% 12.7%

2014 55,684 90,830 60,257 30,224 236,995 23.5% 38.3% 25.4% 12.8%

2015 56,991 92,544 60,730 31,157 241,422 23.6% 38.3% 25.2% 12.9%Source: Cansim Table 051-0056

Notable among the 2001 to 2015 trends are:

• The increasing proportions of age 65+ (moving from 12.2% in 2001 to 12.9% in 2015 and 45-64 (22.1% in 2001 to 25.2% in 2015).

• The proportion of 20-44 year olds has remained relatively constant around 38.2% in 2001 to 38.3% in 2015.

• The proportion of population aged 0-19 was highest in 2001 at 27.5%, dropped to a low of 23.5% in 2013 and 2014, rebounded slightly to 23.6% in 2015, likely on the strength of surging international in-migration.

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Population by 5 year age group at 5 year intervals are illustrated graphically below:

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Regina CMA Population by 5 year Age Group

2001

2006

2011

2015

Clear among the trends are the surging in population between 2011 and 2015 in the 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 25 to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 to 39 year old age groups, all likely the result of stronger international in-migration during this time period.

Population Forecast

A customised population forecast model was built for the Regina CMA. The population model is a simple cohort survival model using birth and death rates and migration data from Statistics Canada. In its basic form, a cohort-survival model estimates future population based on the previous period’s population plus natural increase (births less deaths) and net migration:

Population[t+1] = Population[t] + Natural Increase + Net Migration

This is calculated for men and women for each age-group. The time interval is determined by the age cohorts. The smallest time interval for which an estimate can be made is the length of time it takes all the members of an age cohort (e.g., age 10 - 14) to pass on to the next age grouping (e.g., the 15 - 19 year-old group). All of the cohorts must be the same dimension (e.g., 5-year increments, 7-year increments), since over the course of the analysis each group must pass from one cohort to the next. All estimates must use time-intervals which are multiples of the cohort size.

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Natural increase is the difference between the number of children born and the number of people who die during one time interval. The analysis, however, is being done in terms of age-cohorts for each sex. Children can only be born into the first cohort but people die in all of the cohorts (including the birth cohort). Further, the number of males has no direct effect on the number of children born. Children are born only to women of childbearing age based on historical births per female population by age group. Deaths by age group are also based on historical deaths per age group population.

Migration, both in and out, includes international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial.

Based on provincial average birth and death rates, provincial average propensity to in and out migrate by age group, and the last 5 year average rates of international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial migration, a population forecast was derived for the Regina CMA for 2016 to 2025.

Regina CMA Population Forecast 0-19 20-44 45-64 65+ Total

0-19 as % of Total

20-44 as % of Total

45-64 as % of Total

65+ as % of Total

2016 59,041 94,600 61,117 32,224 246,982 23.9% 38.3% 24.7% 13.0%

2017 61,033 96,526 61,708 33,267 252,533 24.2% 38.2% 24.4% 13.2%

2018 62,937 98,277 62,642 34,219 258,076 24.4% 38.1% 24.3% 13.3%

2019 64,818 99,872 63,760 35,155 263,605 24.6% 37.9% 24.2% 13.3%

2020 66,634 101,510 64,928 36,055 269,127 24.8% 37.7% 24.1% 13.4%

2021 68,729 102,645 65,916 37,358 274,648 25.0% 37.4% 24.0% 13.6%

2022 70,710 103,811 66,878 38,727 280,127 25.2% 37.1% 23.9% 13.8%

2023 72,684 104,845 68,001 40,026 285,557 25.5% 36.7% 23.8% 14.0%

2024 74,592 105,833 69,166 41,346 290,936 25.6% 36.4% 23.8% 14.2%

2025 76,461 106,856 70,086 42,868 296,271 25.8% 36.1% 23.7% 14.5%

Key among the trends above are:

• Continued population growth at the 2011 to 2015 five year average of 5,500 per year. This however, drops slightly to 5,300 per year near the end of the forecast period.

• The 65+ population increases to 14.5% of total as the 2015 55 to 64 year old population moves into the 65+ age cohort.

• By 2025, the 0-19 age group returns to the proportion experienced in 2005 on the strength of younger international in-migrants and their children.

Implications for Business

Business implications are clear. Over the next 10 years, and beyond, the Regina CMA can expect a growing senior as well as an increasing younger (0-19) and ethnically diverse population. Changes in these 3 important demographics represent long term marketing opportunities.

About EDR

Economic Development Regina Inc. (EDR) is the economic development agency for the City of Regina and region. EDR provides leadership to the community to support industry growth and diversification through retention and expansion of existing business and encouraging investment, development of industry and tourism with focus on the key-growth sectors of the economy in the Region. In collaboration with key stakeholders, we work to identify, develop and promote opportunities that advance economic prosperity for those who live, work, learn, visit and invest in the Regina region and ensure the Regina region offers a vibrant and diversified economy for investors, is a positive destination experience for visitors and offers a high quality of life for residents.

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About Praxis Consulting

Praxis consulting is Saskatchewan’s largest locally-based management consulting firm. Praxis works collaboratively with clients in the facilitation of growth and excellence, leveraging an unmatched wealth of experience across multiple sectors. Praxis strives to:

• Inform clients with market research and economic impact studies, providing relevant insights into various sectors and communities.

• Strategize, developing custom solutions tailored to clients’ most unique and complex needs.

• Execute strategic plans, portfolios and projects by facilitating internal project management, change management and communication capacity.

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