Impacts of Climate Change on Human Development and Poverty

What We Know and What We do not Know

Bishwa Nath TiwariUNDP-APRC

Bangkok

26 October 2012

Economics of Climate Change Adaptation Regional Consultation on Capacity Building Needs in Asia

Climate change and poverty reduction in Asia-Pacific region

• In the last 3 decades poverty reduced by 66% and human development improved by 55%.

• Rapid economic growth has contributed to these achievements.

• But the current growth model has increased income inequality and invited climate change challenge that undermines poverty reduction and human development agenda.

• Poor are more vulnerable to climate change.• Unless climate change is addressed we will be failing in our

poverty reduction efforts.• This requires improved planning, policy and institutions backed

up by adequate technological, financial resources and international & regional cooperation.

Poverty in Asia-Pacific Region

• A huge region with almost 4 billion population out of 7 billion world population (56%)

• Highest number of poor almost 900 million out of 1.3 billion world’s poor(69% below PPP$ 1.25/day)

• High variation in poverty rate– East Asia-Pacific (Developing) – 16.8%– South Asia – 40.3%

• Climate change has huge impact in the region

By 2050, the global HDI would be:

19% higher than it is today.• Largest increase in developing

countries (24%).• 44% for Sub-Saharan Africa and

36% for South Asia.

8% lower in an environmental challenge scenario.

• 12% for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

15% lower in an environmental disaster scenario.

• Dramatic impact on developing countries

• 24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia.

Environmental trends threaten human development progress

Impact of CC on HD in Asia-Pacific• Sea level rise: The Asia and Pacific nations are the most vulnerable, with

more than 100 million people at risk. By 2050, with a projected half-metre rise in sea level, Bangladesh alone is likely to lose about 11 percent of its land, affecting an estimated 15 million people .

• Melting of Glaciers: Glaciers in Asia are melting at a faster rate than ever before, increasing the risks of flooding and rock avalanches. At least 32 GLOFs have occurred in Himalayan region of Bhutan, China and Nepal with significant loss of human lives and property. In last 40 years, some glacial lakes in the Pho Chu basin of Bhutan has increased 8 times larger.

• Decrease in fresh water availability: with population growth and increasing demand for higher standards of living, more than a billion people will be affected by 2050s.

• Decrease in crop yields: By the mid-21st century, crop yields could increase up to 20% in east and southeast Asia; and decrease up to 30% in central and south Asia.

Impact of CC on HD in Asia-Pacific• Increased desertification and displacement: Out of 5.2 billion

hectares of earth’s land, Asia has around 1.7 billion hectares that are at risk of desertification.

• Loss of mangroves, affecting food security and biodiversity: From 1980 to 2005, Asia lost 25% of its 7.8 million ha mangroves, threatening food security, shelter, and other services.

• Rise in climate sensitive diseases (Malaria, Dengue fever): 1.8 billion people from Asia-Pacific are at risk from Dengue – 70% of the world’s total; In 2009, Asia-Pacific accounted for 16% of global malaria cases and 7% of deaths. In 2004, about half of diarrhea cases and deaths among children under five occurred in Asia-Pacific.

Recent climate extreme events and their effects

• Bangladesh Cyclone Sidr in 2007: 3,400 people were killed, 55,000 people suffered from injuries, and about 1 million’s livelihoods seriously affected.

• Myanmar Cyclone Nargis in 2008: 84,537 people were killed, 2.4 million affected, and 0.8 million displaced (women accounted for 61% of deaths).

• Pakistan flood in 2010: 78 of 141 districts and more than 20 million people (10% of pop) affected, more than 1,900 people lost their lives, and about 1.6 million homes were destroyed.

The effect of CC is higher in A-P region and on its vulnerable population groups

• Asia-Pacific region was disproportionately hit:– 45% of world’s natural disasters occurred in Asia-Pacific in

last 3 decades. – though region accounted for 25% of world’s GDP, it

suffered from 42% of total economic losses from disasters.– Asia-pacific is more prone to climate-sensitive diseases.

• Vulnerability = f(exposure, sensitivity, 1/adaptive capacity)

• Mountain dwellers, islanders, delta communities, indigenous peoples and urban slums of the region are more vulnerable.

Source APHDR 2012

Countries have been making efforts• Bhutan, China, India and Viet Nam have recently transitioned from

deforestation to reforestation status. India increased its reforestation rate from of 0.2% a year between 1990 and 2000 to 0.5 percent a year between 2000 and 2010.

• Bhutan stipulates that at least 60 percent of the country remain forested in perpetuity.

• Countries of the region is committed to reduce emissions– China is committed to lower its carbon intensity of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to

the 2005 level. – India is also committed to reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% during the same

period. – Indonesia and Republic of Korea announced that by 2020 they will reduce emissions by

26% and 20%, respectively below their 2005 levels

Hanoi, Viet Nam - comprehensive water adaptation programme includes improving dykes, better monitoring and responses to flooding.

Some Adaptation efforts

Dealing with runoff in Nepal: Hill farmers have devised a systematic way of managing runoff from the ridge to the valley, with drainage channels and ponds built at strategic points to hold, divert and delay the flow of runoff.

Diversifying food sources in Malaysia: In response to changing weather patterns in Malaysia, the Jagoi of Sarawak are diversifying their food sources; they are planting several varieties of rice, fruit trees and other climate-resilient crops such as Tapioca.

Coping with floods in Bangladesh: Delta farmers adjust the timing and varieties of rice that they plan according to water cycle

Protecting livestock pasture in Mongolia: Faced with a difficult and variable climate, the nomadic herders of Mongolia developed ways of combating pasture degradation and desertification. These include: seasonal migration, long-distance migration, herding different kinds of livestock and observing communal practices for the sustainable use of common pasture grounds.

Planned adaptation is already under way in NAPAs, disaster management and adaptation plan, as well as countries national strategies, policies and action plans

National Policies, Strategies and Action Plans on Climate Change

Japan 2009 Initiative Korea 2008 Policy and Action Plan Singapore 2008 National Strategy Malaysia 2009 National Policy China 2007 National Programme Thailand 2008 Strategic Plan and 2009 Draft Master Plan Mongolia 2000 Action Plan

Philippines 2009 Climate Change Act and 2010-2022 National Framework Strategy

Indonesia 2007 Action Plan and 2010 Sectoral Roadmap Viet Nam 2008 National Target ProgrammeLao PDR 2010 National Strategy (NSCC)Cambodia 2001 National Action Plan (NAPCC) Sri Lanka 2011-2016 National Adaptation StrategyMaldives 2010-2020 Strategic National Action Plan India 2008 National Action Plan Bhutan 2009 Concept Paper on National StrategyPakistan 2011 Draft National Policy Bangladesh 2008 National Strategy and Action Plan Nepal 2011 National Policy

Australia 2004-2007 National Biodiversity and CC Action Plan; 2009 Adaptation Action Plan

Tonga 2009 Policy Micronesia 2009 Policy Kiribati 2005 Adaptation Strategy

Plus 12 Countries of the regions have NAPA (as of Nov 2011).

Gap and constraints1. Knowledge and information gap

• Lack of awareness• Lack of information of CC impacts and vulnerability at local level; most

information are at global/regional level – difficult y in decision making2. Market failures – missing and misaligned markets

• Public goods• Information asymmetry between sellers and buyers

3. Lack of affordable technology4. Financial constraints, particularly those faced by the poor people5. Lack of adequate planning and budgeting6. Lack of coordination - ministries/departments are yet working in

silos7. Lack of capacity, especially in the LDCs8. Lack of institutions at local level

Knowledge & Awareness gap: How much we know about CC?

Knowledge and awareness is necessary• Assessment and information can help address maladaptation.

Two critical areas of maladaptation: (i) use of energy for air conditioning; and (ii) building road in hills.

• Due to insufficient information on biological resources development practices and population pressure have caused a significant loss of terrestrial and aquatic species diversity (Bangladesh NAPA).

• Asymmetry of information does not encourage proper adaptation – such as absentee landlords does not do retrofitting; or ignorant consumers do not demand for house built with safety measures.

• Lack of awareness and information among higher authority can delay the adaptation efforts

Other areas of interventions • Awareness and information is only part of the solution. Even if

awareness level is high, political leaders may not take right decisions (Short time horizon; lobby/pressure)

• Participation and representation of vulnerable groups is necessary• Increased transition to green technology• Expand sources of finance (Domestic and international) • Improved planning and monitoring framework• Enhanced institutions and regulations • Coordination and cooperation

– Coordination between ministries/departments/units– Regional and international cooperation– South-south and north-south

Wins-wins are possible: Both environmental conservation and equity/poverty can reduce poverty

What Policies, Programmes and Projects?

What projects and programmes?1. Areas of win-win opportunities• Micro-Hydro power in remote areas • Leasehold forestry targeting the poor

2. Access to electricity generated from clean energy • Viet Nam: Universal access to electricity• in Lao PDR under “power to the poor” component of

energy access programmes interest-free credits provided to connect poor households to the grid

– Labour intensive green roads - Income generation, employment activities (such as in FfW, or some select projects under MGNREGA in India)

– Improved all-weather roads (such as in Lao PDR that has enabled farmers to explore new market opportunities)

– Community forestry (Nepal)– Managing traffic congestion such (Singapore)

Thank You