Implications and Challenges of Emerging Technologies for Rural Development:

Focus on Agriculture

IMI Workshop: What are the Innovation Challenges for Rural

Development?

Casa San Bernardo, Rome

15-17 November 2005

Kathy Jo Wetter, ETC Group

Terminator Technology

Company Seed Sales, 2004(US) millions

Agrochemical Sales, 2004

Monsanto $2,803(pro forma)

$3,180

DuPont $2,600 $2,211

Syngenta $1,239 $6,030

The Gene Giants

The Gene Giants Seek New Seed Markets in the South

• Commercial seed market worldwide = ~US $21,000 million

• Estimate of total seed market including farmer-saved seed and state-run seed programs = ~US $45,000 million

The Gene Giants Seek New Seed Markets in the South

Over 1.4 billion people in the South depend on farm-saved seeds as their primary seed source.

Three-quarters of the world’s farmers routinely save seed from their harvest and exchange seed with their farm neighbors.

Seed selection and community plant breeding are the foundation for local food security.

“If all transgenic varieties [incorporated terminator technology] they would not be able to spread into the environment and,

therefore, biosafety would be ensured without cumbersome administrative

procedures, such as those proposed in the framework of the Biosafety Protocol.” -- from

a position paper on the benefits of seed sterilization, written by the

International Seed Federation

“Greenwashing” of Terminator Technology:

Terminator Technology is on the agenda at CBD/COP8

in Paraná, Brazil, March 2006

New campaign to ban Terminator Technology:

www.banterminator.org

1 Nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter

“Quantum dots:” Nano-scale size-dependent color changes

The Periodic Table of Elements

An estimated 700 nano-products on

the market, including: • Stain-resistant fabrics (NanoTex)• Anti-bacterial wound dressings, nano-silver

(Smith & Nephew)• Transparent sunscreens and cosmetics, nano-

TiO2 and ZnO (L’Oréal)• Self-cleaning windows, nano-TiO2

(Pilkington)• Food additives (nano-carotenoids, BASF)• Pesticides (Syngenta)• Water-cleaning compounds (Altair)

“Specifically we recommend as a precautionary measure that factories and research laboratories

treat manufactured nanoparticles and nanotubes as if they were hazardous and reduce them in waste streams and that the use of free nanoparticles in

environmental applications such as remediation of

groundwater be prohibited.”

Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering (UK), July 2004

“Just as the British Industrial Revolution knocked handspinners and handweavers

out of business, nanotechnology will disrupt a slew of multi-billion dollar

companies and industries.”

Lux Research, Inc., The Nanotech Report 2004

Rubber: 8.6 million tonnes of natural rubber were produced in 2004, reflecting a market value of $11.6 thousand million. 79% of all natural rubber was produced in Southeast Asia in 2004.

The tire industry is designing nano-composites that could extend the life of car tires by as much as 50%. Completely new materials could replace rubber altogether, dramatically diminishing the demand for natural rubber.

Commodity Roulette: Agriculture (1)

Source: International Rubber Study Group; S. E. Asia = Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam

Commodity Roulette: Agriculture (2)

Natural fibres (e.g.,cotton) and the farmers who grow them, are also vulnerable. Will nanotech be used to mimic the texture and properties of natural fibres like cotton and silk? If so, will some natural fibres become obsolete with the development of new nano-inspired fibres? Or will stain-resistant enhancements intended for niche fabrics like silk result in increased demand? How will longer-lasting, stain-resistant fabrics affect levels of consumption? What will nanotech’s fibres mean for the 100 million families engaged in cotton production worldwide?

Cotton is grown in over 100 countries – including 35 in Africa. Cotton is a critical export earner for many commodity dependent developing countries. Cotton accounts for:

•39% of Burkina Faso’s exports

•37% of Chad’s exports

•33% of Benin’s exports

Cotton’s market value (in 2003): $24,000 million,

The point is not that the status quo

should be preserved – but that society and governments are ill-

prepared.

National economies and the workers who depend on primary export commodities will be out of luck and livelihood, resulting in increased poverty and political instability – at least in the short-term.

Worker-displacement brought on by commodity-obsolescence will hurt the poorest and most vulnerable, particularly those workers in the Global South who don’t have the economic flexibility to respond to sudden demands for new skills or different raw materials. The disruptions won’t be nano-sized or incremental, and not easily addressed by re-training workers or social safety-nets that may be non-existent in many poor countries.

If current trends continue, nano-scale technologies will further concentrate economic power in the hands of

multinational corporations and widen the gap between rich and poor.

www.etcgroup.org