Implications of Census Data presentation to NEPCO 14 May 2011

It’s in Our Hands

Implications of Census Data

presentation to NEPCO

14 May 2011

Bruce Fogarty, Vice Chairman

Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

[email protected] / 719-685-1884

Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee 2It’s in Our Hands

Mission of the PPACCC

Mission – Conduct a Census 2010 awareness campaign in El Paso and Teller Counties, in partnership with Census Bureau *

Goals:

• Improve mail questionnaire response rate of households from 72% in 2000 to at least 82%

– It costs $57-$80/household to chase them for answers; about $3 million in Colorado Springs MSA* in Census 2010

– Missed persons cost state and local governments money

• Insure everyone is counted timely and counted accurately

• Minimize cost of the Census (by minimizing need for site visits to households not returning questionnaire)

Chairman of PPACCC: JD Dallagher, CEO of Pikes Peak United Way

* El Paso and Teller Counties comprise the Colorado Springs Metropolitan Statistical Area, an important designation of the US Office of Management and Budget, affecting many Federal programs.


But … NEPCO wants to know about implications of Census data, so … here is our agenda for today

A primer on Census geography and where NEPCO fits in

How well NEPCO and Colorado Springs area did in participating in Census 2010

An introduction to “Census data”—it’s not just Census 2010

Implications of Census data

• At the national level

• At the state level

• At the local, especially NEPCO and El Paso County levels

• NOTE: There are mountains of data available. The key is to be aware of it and how to find it.

Some local (Colorado Springs MSA, NEPCO area) facts

Final thoughts on implications and Questions


First, a few comments on today’s presentation

Quotations:

• “A statistician is someone who is good with numbers, but doesn’t have the personality of an accountant.” – Source unknown

• “Who the hell wants to hear actors [demographers] talking?” – Harry M. Warner (Warner Bros., 1927) – Interruptions and questions are welcome during the talk.

• “As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best

information.” – Benjamin Disraeli ♦ “It also helps if he can find it.” – anonymous

The Internet has revolutionized access to Census information. Prior to Census 2000, the US Census publications were the most widely held books in libraries around the world. Today it’s “easy” to access and free.

The data collected by the US Census Bureau is ultimately determined by US Congress and used to affect Federal policy and funding decisions. The data also guide much the same at the state and local governmental levels.

At the non-governmental level, it is ultimately up to decision makers to use data/facts to make decisions; i.e., to draw implications from the data.


Census geography, from Block to State

The nested hierarchy of Census geography

State of Colorado

• El Paso County (one of 64 in Colorado)

– Census Tracts in El Paso County

○ Census Block Groups in Census Tracts▪ Census Blocks in Census Block Groups (201,062 Census

Blocks in El Paso County in Census 2010)

A Census Tract is designed by local government and Census officials to be reasonably homogeneous with clear, visible boundaries. They are quite stable over time.

Census Geography

Number of areas Population, 2010

Census 2000 Census 2010 Mean Median

Census Tracts 111 130 4,787 4,515

Census Block Groups 323 375 1,705 1,407


Census geography, from Block to State (cont.)

Other Census geography

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s)

• Defined by US Office of Management and Budget

– County-based

– Counties with strong economic and transportation/commuting links

– Minimum population = 50,000

• Heavily influences funding in several federal government programs, esp. transportation

• Colorado Springs MSA (El Paso and Teller Counties)

Public school districts

ZIP Codes

• Reported as “ZIP Code Tabulation Areas” (ZCTA’s) ZIP Codes

• ZIP Codes do not have fixed boundaries and are not “stable” over time


NEPCO area P

laceho

lder s

lide: S

ho

w N

EP

CO

geo

grap

hies h

ere.

NEPCO area

by Census Tract:

West of I-25 = Tract 37.01

East of I-25 to CO 83:

• County line to CO 105 = Tract 74

• Between CO 105 and Baptist Road = Tract 73

• South of Baptist Road = Tract 72 in Census 2000* and Tract 72.02 in Census 2010

* NOTE: In 2000, Tract 72 extended south of North Gate Rd. (and west of CO 83) to Briargate Pkwy. In 2010 the southern boundary of Tract 72.02 is North Gate Rd.

74

37.01

73

72* (72.02)


Types of “Census data”

Censuses and surveys (by US Census Bureau)

• Censuses count everyone, every organization.

• Surveys count a carefully drawn, representative sample of everyone, every organization.

• For both censuses and surveys, participation is required by federal law.

• Census Bureau conducts surveys on behalf of other federal agencies; e.g., US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Decennial Census of Population and Housing (the “Census”)

• Conducted since 1790 once every 10 years (e.g., Census 2010)

• In US Constitution (Article I, Section 2)

• Asks only 5 questions (age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, housing owned or rented)

• Data reported down to Census Block level


Participation in Census 2010 by NEPCO area

Mail participation rate:

• Definition: Number of households mailing back Census 2010 questionnaire who received Census questionnaire in the mail (as all households should have in NEPCO area)

• US Postal Service was supposed to inform Census Bureau if it knew housing unit was vacant.

• Final data on this topic is the “Mail Return Rate,” which updates denominator (final determination of whether or not housing unit was occupied). Mail return rate data is not available as of this presentation.

Area Rate in 2000 Rate in 2010 Rank in 2010 (1 = highest rate)

Tract 37.01 74% 80% 29 of 111 (13 tied)

Tract 72 88% 83% 17 of 111 (3 tied)

Tract 73 88% 86% 4 of 111 (2 tied)

Tract 74 89% 89% 1 (11 out of 1,061 in CO)

El Paso County 78% 76% 6 of 64 in CO (3 tied)

Colorado 75% 72% 31 of 50 (4 tied)

United States 69% 74%


Types of “Census data” (cont.)

American Community Survey (ACS)

• Conducted since 2001; replaced “long form” in Decennial Census

• Conducted monthly; one in every 480 households

• 48 demographic questions and 21 housing questions (in 2011 version)

• Data reported down to Census Block Group or Census Tract level

Current Population Survey (CPS)

• Conducted monthly

• Some months have special “supplemental” surveys (March is a key month)

• Primary source of unemployment and income data

Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP)

• Conducted monthly

• Covers economic mobility

• Income sources and amounts

• Measures effectiveness of state and federal programs (e.g., Food Stamps)


Types of “Census data” (cont.)

Non-demographic surveys of local interest

• Government Censuses and Surveys

– Census conducted for years ending 2 and 7; e.g., 2007

– Surveys conducted all years

– Example: State and local government finances

• Economic Censuses and Surveys

– Census conducted for years ending 2 and 7; e.g., 2007

– Surveys conducted all years

– Examples: Retail trade, Construction

NOTE: Nowadays, all Census data is readily available on the Internet. Click on www.census.gov.

When you ask about the “implications of Census data,” be careful what you ask for! Today we’re focusing on sociodemographic data.


Implications of Census data

National level

• Decennial Census’ main affect is on apportionment of seats in US House of Representatives

– In 2010, Colorado remained at 7 districts

– In 2020, if all states grow exactly as they did from 2010, Colorado will get the very last seat assigned, resulting in an 8th district

• Census Bureau issues several reports about sociodemographic trends, based on data from Decennial Census and other surveys. Some examples:

– Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage

– Fertility of American Women

– America’s Families and Living Arrangements

– School Enrollment in the United States


Implications of Census data (cont.)

An example from “Income, Poverty …” 2009 report

Highest quintile (top 20%) earn 50.3% of income.

Gini index:Mexico – 48.2Ecuador – 46.9U.S. – 46.8Philippines – 45.8Jamaica – 45.5Iran – 44.5

(0 = everyone has same income; 100 = only one has all income)



An example from “… Families and Living Arrangements,” 2007 report

In 1950, 93% of families with children were married couple families. In 2007, 71% were.

In 2010, 32.9% of all households were not “family” households, meaning they didn’t have two or more people living in the household who were related by birth, marriage, or adoption.

Note this!



State level

• Redistricting of state legislative bodies– Colorado and the Lucas vs. Fourth-forth General Assembly case

– Colorado constitution and the statistical sampling issue

• Allocation of Federal funds to Colorado (almost all allocated locally)– In Federal fiscal year 2008, Colorado received $4.4 billion, or $890 per person. Examples:

○ $545 million in highway planning and construction

○ $267 million in rural broadband access

○ $71 million in State Children’s Insurance Program (CHIP)

• State government planning (at all levels)

Local level

• County and city redistricting– El Paso County districts on W and S get geographically larger and on N and E get smaller

• Allocation of Federal funds; about $307-$431 million in El Paso County in 2008

• Local government planning; examples:– Transportation

– Area Agency on Aging

– Schools; e.g., Title 1

– Health and Human Services

Implication: Many funding grants require use of Census data, but even those that don’t can make good use of Census data.


Implications of Census data (cont.); But first a word from our sponsor …

Census 2010 data

• Redistricting data (Public Law 94-171) – all data released – Race and Hispanic origin, by total population and 18 and older (voting age) population

– Down to Census Block for entire US

• Demographic Profile Summary data– Sex, age, household type and relationship, housing occupancy, housing tenure

– Available for most states, DC, and Puerto Rico as of 13 May, including Colorado – But for few geographic levels below state (not even county)

• Summary File data– All Census 2010 data tables

– Summary File 1 released June-August 2011 (general tables)

– Summary File 2 released December 2011 – April 2010 (race and ethnicity tables)

American Community Survey data

• 100’s of tables available

• For Census Block Group and larger geographies, 2005-2009 data released in December 2010. This is the latest (and so far only) 5-year ACS dataset.

• For areas of 20,000 or more: 3-year ACS data; latest is 2007-2009 (2008-2010 data in January 2012)

• For areas of 65,000 or more: 1-year ACS data; latest is 2009 (2010 data in Oct. 2011)


Census data; Colorado Springs – Median Annual Earnings of Full-Time Workers, by Occupation

Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009 City of CS State of CO U.S.Management and professional occupations: $58,839 $59,804 $57,794

Management, business, and financial occupations: $59,717 $62,160 $61,741Management occupations $62,524 $65,543 $65,515Business and financial operations occupations $55,353 $55,831 $54,912

Professional and related occupations: $58,096 $57,844 $55,047Computer and mathematical occupations $76,956 $75,636 $71,234Architecture and engineering occupations $75,476 $75,491 $70,361Life, physical, and social science occupations $59,984 $61,141 $59,528Community and social services occupations $45,736 $40,371 $39,361Legal occupations $55,778 $70,130 $79,878Education, training, and library occupations $39,693 $42,160 $44,623Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations $43,204 $46,100 $47,356Healthcare practitioner and technical occupations $57,565 $58,163 $56,081

Production, transportation, and material moving occupations: $31,625 $34,516 $33,747Production occupations $32,164 $33,392 $33,667Transportation and material moving occupations: $30,996 $35,527 $33,853

Supervisors, transportation & material movers, & other workers $43,277 $53,398 $49,654Motor vehicle operators $32,510 $37,019 $37,463Material moving workers $26,135 $29,353 $28,098


Census data; Colorado Springs – Median Annual Earnings of Full-Time Workers, by Occupation (cont.)

Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009 City of CS State of CO U.S.Service occupations: $25,227 $26,800 $25,757

Healthcare support occupations $29,802 $27,894 $25,728Protective service occupations: $46,649 $50,879 $46,298

Fire fighting & prevention, other protective service workers incl. superv. $37,024 $41,978 $38,423Law enforcement workers including supervisors $58,056 $55,208 $52,607Food preparation and serving related occupations $21,792 $20,983 $20,443Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations $22,843 $24,667 $24,154Personal care and service occupations $23,661 $25,270 $23,090

Sales and office occupations: $33,511 $37,435 $35,278Sales and related occupations $39,328 $43,119 $40,880Office and administrative support occupations $31,410 $34,468 $32,933Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations $28,821 $23,947 $23,037Construction, extraction, maintenance, and repair occupations: $34,372 $39,122 $39,211

Construction and extraction occupations $31,658 $36,698 $36,742Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations $39,216 $42,860 $42,257

Total (All Occupations) $40,620 $43,255 $40,907


Census 2000 and 2010 data:Change in Population in NEPCO Area

NOTE: The raw data has 71 categories of race, including combinations of up to six races

37.01 37.01 37.01 72 72 73 73 74 74 74 ALL1 2 3 1 2* 1 2 1 2 3 NEPCO

Occupancy Status5.1% 13.0% 37.2% 208.2% 109.9% 221.9% 79.1% 21.2% 11.0% 69.2% 66.8%

-2.0% 3.8% -0.7% -1.0% 2.5% -3.0% 3.3% 1.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3%

Race - Universe: TotalChange in number, 2000 to 2010

60 124 1,178 4,745 1,219 3,130 1,756 305 25 886 13,42825 105 1,094 4,626 1,174 2,996 1,672 274 31 853 12,85014 105 980 4,327 1,019 2,802 1,521 282 7 797 11,854

5 -2 11 56 23 56 45 -13 3 22 206-9 -7 -11 25 13 14 2 15 3 9 54-1 9 40 156 103 97 66 1 9 24 5041 2 0 3 3 10 -1 -1 1 0 18

15 -2 74 59 13 17 39 -10 8 1 21435 19 84 119 45 134 84 31 -6 33 578

4.0% 5.9% 46.1% 223.1% 99.4% 244.0% 13.6% 10.5% 1.0% 60.3% 64.8%-2.8% -0.5% -3.2% -1.3% -6.4% -2.4% -3.2% -0.2% -0.7% -2.2% -2.5%

129.6% 55.9% 140.0% 276.7% 300.0% 496.3% 195.3% 68.9% -13.6% 126.9% 158.8%

Hispanic or Latino, and Not Hispanic or Latino by Race - Universe: Total Change in number, 2000 to 2010

6 18 226 316 120 199 164 37 38 44 1,16854 106 952 4,429 1,099 2,931 1,592 268 -13 842 12,260

9.2% 13.8% 163.8% 486.2% 307.7% 337.3% 186.4% 36.3% 73.1% 88.0% 248.2%0.2% 0.5% 4.3% 2.5% 3.3% 1.2% 2.4% 0.8% 1.5% 0.6% 1.9%

Not Hispanic or Latino:

Percent change from 2000 to 2010

Proportion White aloneTotal Population

Percent change from 2000 to 2010

Percent Hispanic or Latino (% difference)Hispanic or Latino (% change)

Population of one race:

Black or African American alone

Asian alone

Some other race alone Population of two or more races:

Population of two or more races

Hispanic or Latino

Census Tract

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone

American Indian and Alaska Native alone

White alone

Total Population

Total Housing Units; % change from 2000 to 2010 Proportion Vacant; % difference from 2000 to 2010

Block Group


Census 2000 and ACS 2005-2009 data:Change in Demographics in NECPO Area, 2000 – 2005,9; Ex. 1

Family Type by Presence and Age of ChildrenTract 37.01 37.01 37.01 72 72 73 73 74 74 74 TotalBlock Group 1 2 3 1 2* 1 2 1 2 3 NEPCOTotal: -31 -136 146 363 1,497 607 221 169 54 158 3,048Married-couple family: -67 -122 180 342 1,351 545 167 183 100 152 2,831

With own children under 18 years: -88 -109 200 178 697 272 142 -36 -14 32 1,274Under 6 years only -33 -25 102 15 107 23 20 -2 -67 -20 120Under 6 years and 6 to 17 years -39 22 -4 138 45 -15 45 20 105 15 3326 to 17 years only -16 -106 102 25 545 264 77 -54 -52 37 822

No own children under 18 years 21 -13 -20 164 654 273 25 219 114 120 1,557Other family: 36 -14 -34 21 146 62 54 -14 -46 6 217

Male householder, no wife present: 24 14 -57 0 62 11 10 -9 0 -7 48With own children under 18 years: 30 -5 -42 0 39 15 17 0 0 -7 47

Under 6 years only 0 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -7Under 6 years and 6 to 17 years -2 -3 -9 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 126 to 17 years only 32 3 -31 0 13 15 17 0 0 -7 42

No own children under 18 years -6 19 -15 0 23 -4 -7 -9 0 0 1Female householder, no husband present: 12 -28 23 21 84 51 44 -5 -46 13 169

With own children under 18 years: 17 -31 -31 3 66 55 1 11 -34 0 57Under 6 years only 25 22 -20 9 0 -2 0 0 0 0 34Under 6 years and 6 to 17 years 0 -3 -9 0 9 19 0 -7 -5 0 46 to 17 years only -8 -50 -2 -6 57 38 1 18 -29 0 19

No own children under 18 years -5 3 54 18 18 -4 43 -16 -12 13 112


Census 2000 and ACS 2005-2009 data:Change in Demographics in NECPO Area, 2000 – 2005,9; Ex. 2

Sex by Marital Status for the Population 15 Years Old and OlderTract 37.01 37.01 37.01 72 72 73 73 74 74 74 TotalBlock Group 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 NEPCOTotal: -139 -181 641 1,115 4,403 1,656 782 468 381 544 9,670Male: -27 -87 273 563 1,997 890 402 302 237 210 4,760

Never married 62 -24 147 157 472 319 158 144 143 16 1,594Now married: -43 -129 184 377 1,427 561 166 161 92 189 2,985

Married, spouse present -73 -122 188 371 1,382 545 160 175 90 169 2,885Married, spouse absent: 30 -7 -4 6 45 16 6 -14 2 20 100

Separated 16 -8 -19 0 32 9 6 0 2 0 38Other 14 1 15 6 13 7 0 -14 0 20 62

Widowed 17 10 -9 19 28 -9 6 43 0 20 125Divorced -63 56 -49 10 70 19 72 -46 2 -15 56

Female: -112 -94 368 552 2,406 766 380 166 144 334 4,910Never married -19 69 38 113 651 153 162 0 56 149 1,372Now married: -67 -113 178 368 1,492 575 173 152 78 170 3,006

Married, spouse present -87 -114 192 358 1,398 546 192 170 83 170 2,908Married, spouse absent: 20 1 -14 10 94 29 -19 -18 -5 0 98

Separated -2 6 -22 0 64 12 -19 -7 0 0 32Other 22 -5 8 10 30 17 0 -11 -5 0 66

Widowed -12 -16 68 66 68 25 -44 7 -20 -10 132Divorced -14 -34 84 5 195 13 89 7 30 25 400


Census 2000 and ACS 2005-2009 data:Tables available today for NEPCO area

This is a sample of a few hundred possible tables available.

Type Data Universe

Ind

ividu

al P

erson

s

Sex by Age; age in 5-year increments (generally) All persons

Sex by Marital Status Persons, 15 or older

Sex by Educational Attainment Persons, 25 or older

Travel Time to Work Workers, 16 or older

Fam

ilies and

H

ou

seho

lds

Family Type by Presence and Age of Children Families

Household Language by Linguistic Isolation Households

Household Income Households

Median Household Income Households

Ho

usin

g

Un

its

Housing Tenure (Owner/Renter Occupied) Occupied housing units

Median Number of Rooms Housing units

Year Structure Built Housing units


Common ways to access Census data on the Internet

for data from

Census 2010 (beginning in February 2011)

and Census 2000 go to

factfinder2.census.govLearn more about the New American FactFinder

For information about the release of data from the 2010 Census, see the

2010 Census Data Productsrelease schedule

http://dataferrett.census.gov/run.html

My favorite: Data Ferrett

Most users: American FactFinder


A few final thoughts on implications of Census data

There is way too much data to search through looking for implications. Much better: Have a question and get data to “answer.”

The facts are there, they’re free, and they’re current! This IS the information age.

For general demographic trends, see Current Population Reports.

B-to-C (Business to Consumer) companies pay attention to their demographics. It’s not just something for government to use.

The tricky bits …

• Have to know Census geography; maps not readily available

• Several ways to get at data via the Internet; nothing in print for “small” areas (below county)

• Need to understand how data organized and what datasets are available

• Drawing insights still can be tough; takes experience

Help (and data!) available from State Demographer’s Office (as well as Census Bureau): http://dola.colorado.gov/demog/


Questions

Questions? Like …

• A customer is suing my company because she was stopped for suspected shoplifting. She says it was due to “racial profiling.” How can the company prove it wasn’t discriminatory?

• Everyone knows Hispanics are the now the largest minority group. How do their buying habits differ from non-Hispanics. “Where” are they and how much trouble will my business be in if I don’t have bilingual associates?

What are YOUR questions?

How can I (and the PPACCC) help you?

Documents

Implications of Census Data presentation to NEPCO 14 May 2011