Emerging routes through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea have drawn significant international attention. How- ever, the vast majority of international vessel traffic in Alaska actually transits through the southern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands via the Great Circle Route. Within this high use route (9-12 vessels per day), there is a potential risk of incidents and oil spills. By understanding the high risk area for spills we can better protect vital subsistence species like marine mammals and birds as well as valuable com- mercial species of fish and shellfish. Using information on winds, currents, and the shape and buoyancy of a simulated tanker vessel we were able to run thousands of simulated vessel drift events using the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model. This modeling effort has allowed us to identify shorelines with greater risk to vessel groundings and spills. Based on an analysis of satellite-based AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, ABSI partners helped inform an appli- cation from the U.S. Coast Guard to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for five Areas to be Avoided (ATBAs). The recommended routes that keep vessels outside the ATBAs promote safer vessel transit and reduce potential risk to seabird colonies by 17%, and to endan- gered Steller sea lion rookeries and haulouts by 21%, while adding only a tiny fraction to the overall distance of the voyage between the Pacific Northwest and Asia. The proposal was approved by the Maritime Safety Committee of the IMO in 2015 and went into effect in 2016. The vast majority of vessels are following the guidelines based on AIS data. Simple Vessel Routing to Reduce Risk to Wildlife Improved Risk Management by Understanding Vessel Traffic Modeled Drift of Disabled Vessels The modeled density of drifted ships can help identify vulnerable portions of shoreline and subsistence resources like Steller sea lions and seabirds. 2015 - Before 2016 - After To address heightened concerns about changes in marine vessel traffic, we developed a simulation model to better show how various projections and predictions associated with increased marine traffic in the Bering Sea might look in the coming decades. These simulations are able to help communities and managers better under - stand future patterns of traffic in the Bering Sea region as a whole. Following vessel activity analysis and considering vessel type, transit routes, route timing, routing speed, and ports of call, we developed a novel agent-based, spatially-ex- plicit, baseline model of current marine vessel traffic patterns. We then applied projections about changes in traffic volume basedon a report from the US Committee on the Marine Transportation System. Future Traffic Projections with Communities absilcc.org Aaron Poe, Coordinator (907) 788-3834 [email protected] Contact

Improved Risk Management by Understanding Vessel Traffic · keep vessels outside the ATBAs promote safer vessel transit and reduce potential risk to seabird colonies by 17%, and to

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Page 1: Improved Risk Management by Understanding Vessel Traffic · keep vessels outside the ATBAs promote safer vessel transit and reduce potential risk to seabird colonies by 17%, and to

Emerging routes through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea have drawn significant international attention. How-ever, the vast majority of international vessel traffic in Alaska actually transits through the southern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands via the Great Circle Route. Within this high use route (9-12 vessels per day), there is a potential risk of incidents and oil spills.

By understanding the high risk area for spills we can better protect vital subsistence species like marine mammals and birds as well as valuable com-

mercial species of fish and shellfish. Using information on winds, currents, and the shape and buoyancy of a simulated tanker vessel we were able to run thousands of simulated vessel drift

events using the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model. This modeling effort has allowed us to identify shorelines with greater risk to vessel groundings and spills.

Based on an analysis of satellite-based AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, ABSI partners helped inform an appli-cation from the U.S. Coast Guard to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for five Areas to be Avoided (ATBAs).

The recommended routes that keep vessels outside the ATBAs promote safer vessel transit and reduce potential risk to seabird colonies by 17%, and to endan-gered Steller sea lion rookeries and haulouts by 21%, while adding only a tiny fraction to the overall distance of the voyage between the Pacific Northwest and Asia.

The proposal was approved by the Maritime Safety Committee of the IMO in 2015 and went into effect in 2016. The vast majority of vessels are following the guidelines based on AIS data.

Simple Vessel Routing to Reduce Risk to Wildlife

Improved Risk Management by Understanding Vessel Traffic

Modeled Drift of Disabled VesselsThe modeled density of drifted ships can help identify vulnerable portions of shoreline and subsistence resources like Steller sea lions and seabirds.

2015 - Before 2016 - After

To address heightened concerns about changes in marine vessel traffic, we developed a simulation model to better show how various projections and predictions associated with increased marine traffic in the Bering Sea might look in the coming decades. These simulations are able to help communities and managers better under-stand future patterns of traffic in the Bering Sea region as a whole.

Following vessel activity analysis and considering vessel type, transit routes, route timing, routing speed, and ports of call, we developed a novel agent-based, spatially-ex-plicit, baseline model of current marine vessel traffic patterns. We then applied projections about changes in traffic volume basedon a report from the US Committee on the Marine Transportation System.

Future Traffic Projections with Communities

absilcc.org

Aaron Poe, Coordinator(907) [email protected]

Contact