Office of Coast Survey

Improving NOAA’s Capacity to Address Improving NOAA’s Capacity to Address Coastal Inundation EventsCoastal Inundation Events

Jesse C. Feyen, Ph.D.Jesse C. Feyen, Ph.D.Storm Surge Roadmap Portfolio ManagerStorm Surge Roadmap Portfolio Manager

Acting Deputy Chief, Coast Survey Development LaboratoryActing Deputy Chief, Coast Survey Development LaboratoryNational Ocean ServiceNational Ocean Service

Office of Coast Survey

NOAA’s Storm Surge Roadmap

• Plan for improving models, products and services– Addresses tropical and extratropical cyclones

• Cross-NOAA team of experts– NWS, NOS, and OAR experts in meteorology,

oceanography, observing, modeling, social science, …

Bottom line: comprehensive NOAA strategy to holistically address needs and establish a coordinated response

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Storm Surge Roadmap Vision

Highly accurate, relevant, and timely information

CLEARLY COMMUNICATEDwhich results in reductions in loss of life and

ensures communities are resilient

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Roadmap GoalsCustomers Ask:• Who will get flooded?• How much?• When?• What will the impacts

be?

Roadmap Goals:1. Accurately predict and assess

storm water levels– Total Water Level (TWL)

2. Intuitively describe inundation as flooding above ground level

3. Communicate actionable information

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• National Water Level Observational Network (NWLON)

– tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/nwlon.html

• Ingested by NWS into AWIPS and accessible via publicly available web services

– http://opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ioos-dif-sos/

• Preliminary data delivered to NWS for post-stormreports within days of a tropical cyclone

NOS Water Level Observations

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• Highlights real-time water level

and meteorological observations

at coastal locations affected by a

tropical cyclone

• Updated 4 times daily, following

NWS public advisories for tropical

cyclones impacting the U.S. coast

NOS Storm QuickLook

tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook.shtml

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National Ocean Service working with the National Hurricane

Center (NHC) to alleviate confusion regarding tidal datums

• Inundation occurs when storm tide levels

reach normally dry ground, and NHC

forecasts describe flooding above ground

• Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) is

being used to approximate where

inundation could begin

• Storm Quicklook and NOS web services

include water level data relative to

MHHW

Clarifying Water Levels and Datums

Office of Coast Survey

Advancing Storm Surge Model Guidance

• NOS & NWS are building total water level models– Working to combine effects of storm surge, tides,

waves, and rivers into operational surge models

• Accelerating transition of research to operations– Partnering with researchers on new prediction

capabilities– Developing new operational models

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Office of Coast Survey

Upgrading Operational SLOSH Model: Tides

• NOS’ tide model coupled to NWS’ surge model• Added to operational probabilistic SLOSH guidance PSurge

– Utilizes hundreds of individual SLOSH tracks per forecast

Surge + Tides = SLOSH+Tides Surge + Tides = SLOSH+Tides

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Office of Coast Survey

• Extratropical Surge+Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) running in Atlantic• First operational surge model to

include tide signal

• Delivers surge, tide, and combined water level

• Output produced 4 times per day

• Being installed in AWIPS• Pacific version in development

Extratropical Surge and Tide Prediction

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/estofs/prod

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/

Office of Coast Survey

ESTOFS Water Level Fields

EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD 2.5 km CONUS grid (GRIB2)

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