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Improving profitability, solid financial position and updated financial targets
Jussi Noponen CFO
Metsä BoardCapital Markets Day 2017
Disclaimer
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “estimate,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “aim,” “target,” “might,” or, in each case, their negative, or any similar expressions identify certain of these forward-looking statements. Others can be identified from the context in which the statements are made. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, actual results may differ, even materially, from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. We urge presentation participants not to place undue reliance on such statements.
The information and views contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Metsä Board does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent legally required.
Viewers should understand that this presentation does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or subscribe for Metsä Board’s securities anywhere in the world or an inducement to enter into any investment activity relating to the same. No part of this presentation should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or decision to invest in Metsä Board securities whatsoever. Potential investors are instructed to acquaint themselves with MetsäBoard’s annual accounts, interim reports and stock exchange releases as well as other information published by Metsä Board to form a comprehensive picture of the company and its securities.
Metsä Board publishes inside information according to Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) and rules of the Nasdaq Helsinki.
2017 CMD Noponen 2
• Husum profit potential
• Update on FX hedging and debt
• Cost structure and main drivers
• Updated financial targets
• Summary
3
Contents
2017 CMD Noponen
Folding boxboard production
• Costs per tonne produced are higher than in our other
mills due to lower capacity utilisation rate
• Production line fully utilised by the end of 2018
• Total deliveries to Americas will increase
• PE-coated paperboards generate sales in a new customer
segment
Linerboard production
• Volumes of coated linerboards will grow
4
High potential to improve
profitability in Husum
2017 CMD Noponen
5
Potential to improve profitability of HusumAt least EUR 100 million EBIT improvement from 2016 to 2019
2016 2019
+ EUR
25 million+ EUR
5 million+ EUR
>70 million
120,000
tonnes
of pulp
production
lost in 2016
Restructuring:
Efficiency
improvement
programme
FBB capacity
utilisation rate
>95% with
normal sales
price
2017 CMD Noponen
• Low ONWC at the end
of 2015 due to high
payables and low
inventories
• During Husum FBB
ramp-up, ONWC has
increased (3/2017:
EUR 319 million)
• Growing sales will
improve inventory
rotation towards year-
end. ONWC/Sales
expected to be 15–19%
6
Impact of Husum investment programme on
operating net working capital…
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700Operating net working capital M€
Accounts payable M€
Accounts receivable M€
Inventories M€
ONWC/sales, %
%M€
2017 CMD Noponen
3356
93
66
-22 -22
6755
269 8 45 8
-76
-50
49 17 7
250
214
256 247
193
115
8978
126
188
119 118
70
-15
-73
-69
-60
23
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17
Cash flow from operations, quarterly Free cash flow, quarterly
Cash flow from operations, rolling 12 months Free cash flow, rolling 12 months
7
… and cash flowsStrong cash flow outlook resulting from improving profitability, stabilising working capital and lower investments
EU
R m
illio
n
2017 CMD Noponen
Update of FX hedgingand debt
9
FX exposure and sensitivities
58%34%
6% 2%
USD
SEK
GBP
Othercurrencies
FX exposure by currency,
Annual gross amount EUR 1.2bn
FX sensitivities before hedges
10% strengthening of foreign currency vs. EUR
will have an impact on Metsä Board’s operating result of
Currency Next 12 months
USD EUR +70 million
Swedish krona EUR -40 million
GBP EUR +7 million
2017 CMD Noponen
• New hedging policy gives more visibility to future cash flows
• The amount of hedging may deviate from the norm by 40% in either direction
• Hedges are primarily allocated to the following two quarters
• Currently hedging is at the new norm level
10
Updated hedging policy from Q1 2017 onwards
Old policy (before 2017) New policy (2017 onwards)
100% of balance sheet position* and
25% of estimated annual cash flows
100% of balance sheet position* and
50% of estimated annual cash flows
2017 CMD Noponen
* Net of A/R and A/P
105
35
257
174
1 2
100 102
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
4-12/2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 >2021
Maturity schedule in long-term IB debt
Long-term interest bearing liabilities Committed undrawn credit facilities
11
The aim is to reduce interest-bearing debt in 2017
by EUR 100 million
EUR
million
2017 CMD Noponen
223
149128
23
137
Bonds
Loans fromfinancial institutions
Pension loans
Finance leases andother loans
Other short-termloans
199
100
102
Cash and cashequivalents
Revolving creditfacility
Unraised pensionloans
12
Debt structure and liquidity31 March 2017
Interest-bearing debt,
total EUR 660 million
Available liquidity,
total EUR 401 million
Average maturity of long-term loans on 31 March 2017 was 2.2 years. Interest rate duration has been extended from 13 to 30 months during Q2/2017.
2017 CMD Noponen
Cost structureand main cost drivers
Logistics costs16%
Wood26%
Chemicals, pigments and fillers
14%
Energy12%
Other variables
3%
Personnel 14%
Other fixed15%
2017 CMD Noponen 14
Metsä Board’s cost structure in 2016
Total costs in 2016 were
EUR 1.6 billion,
of which 30% were fixed costs
and 70% variable costs
Main drivers in logistics costs
• Volume growth
• Geographic sales mix
• Trade balances
• Fuel price
– 70% of maritime spend is under contracts with
fuel price clause. Fuel is ~20-30% of cost
– In road freight, ~25-30% of the cost is based
on fuel price clause
• Regulations
Maritime42%
Road34%
Rail8%
Ports & terminals
17%
Annual spend EUR 250 million
15
Logistics costs
2017 CMD Noponen
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
LandDomestic + Export
Ports & terminalsDomestic
Maritime Ports & terminalsDistribution
LandDistribution
Sh
are
of co
sts
16
Metsä Board logistics cost along the delivery chain
Land LandPorts & terminals Ports & terminalsMaritime
2017 CMD Noponen
The biggest cost component is wood
Wood sourcing by country in 2016
Metsä Board (total 4.6 million m3)
• Sweden 38%, Finland 31%, Baltic countries
18%, Russia 13%
Metsä Fibre pulp mills (total 12.6 million m3)
• Finland 89%, Russia 6%,
Baltic countries 5%
17
Pulpwood roadside prices in Finland
Source: Luke
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
2015
201
6
201
7
Spruce pulpwood roadside
Birch pulpwood roadside
Pine pulpwood roadside
2017 CMD Noponen
Primary energy used in 2016 (total 12 TWh)
• 51% wood based, 25% nuclear, 5% hydro, 9% gas
(natural gas and LPG) and 10% from other
sources
Electricity sourcing in 2016 (total consumption
2.4 TWh)
• Metsä Board will be nearly self-sufficient in
electricity in Finland when Metsä Fibre’s new
bioproduct mill and TVO’s OL3 reactor (expected
start-up 12/2018) are in full production
• In Sweden, Metsä Board will continue to purchase
approx. 450 GWh/a. Long hedging duration.
18
Over 80% of energy Metsä Board uses is CO2 -free
2017 CMD Noponen
Own generation;
21%
Nuclear through PVO shareholding;
32%
Outsourced generation;
3%
Through Metsä Fibre
shareholding; 6%
Purchased energy; 39%
Electricity sourcing
Financial targets andsummary
20
Updated financial targets
Financial target Change/update Target level Actual 2016 Actual 2015 Actual 2014
Comparable
ROCEUnchanged >12% 8.1% 11.3% 9.1%
Net debt /
comparable
EBITDA
New target <2.5x 2.0x 1.2x 1.8x
Growth in
paperboard
deliveries
New target
Annual growth in
paperboard
deliveries to
exceed relevant
market growth*
12% 13% 10%
Dividend payout New target level
At least 50% of the
result for the
period 76% 44% 57%
* Estimated average market growth globally in fresh fibre paperboards is 3–4%/a
Previous target for net gearing (<70%) no longer in use2017 CMD Noponen
• High potential to improve profitability
in Husum
• Metsä Board is operating in stable
wood markets. Self-sufficiency in
electricity is increasing
• Updated financial targets support a
good balance between profitable
growth and dividends
2017 CMD Noponen 21
Summary