Improving Quality of Area & Production Estimates of Crops

By

Directorate of Economics & StatisticsDepartment of Agriculture & Cooperation

Ministry of AgricultureNew Delhi

National Conference on Agriculture for Kharif Campaign

20th & 21st March 2009, New Delhi

Advance Estimates (27 crops)– First : September/October– Second : January/February– Third : April/May– Fourth : June/July

Final Estimates (44 crops)– Six months after the end of agriculture year

System of Release of Estimates of Agriculture Production

The Directorate of Economics & Statistics in the Union Ministry of Agriculture brings out four advance estimates and one final estimate at the national level:

Contd…

State Agricultural Statistics Authorities (SASAs)

State Governments have designated one of its Departments as SASA which is responsible for providing requisite data at prescribed intervals to DES for finalising Advance Estimates.

SASA’s vary from State to State and is one of the following State Departments:

Deptt. of Agriculture Deptt. of Economics & StatisticsDeptt. of Land Records

Validation of Data

DES validates the above data at the national level with input from:

Forecasts given by the Space Applications Center (SAC), Ahmedabad and IEG, New Delhi Inputs received from the weekly Crop Weather WatchGroup (CWWG) meetings Results of the available Crop Cutting Experiments received from the SASAs/ NSSO for selected crops Trends in the area, production and yield of different crops during the last 5 years and Trends in procurement and prices of respective commodities

Some Important Issues

Inter State variation in yield rates

Year to year large variations in estimates within the State

Large variations in successive advance estimates and final estimates

Inter-agency variation in the estimates within the State

Mismatch between the district wise estimates and State level estimates received from SASA’s

Reliability of the results of the crop-cutting experiments

Inter State variation in yield rates (Rice)

State/ UTProduction Yield (Kg./Hectare)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Andhra Pradesh 13324.0 3009 3111 2939 2984 3344

Assam 3319.0 1534 1460 1468 1332 1428

Bihar 4418.1 1523 792 1075 1486 1237

Chattisgarh 5426.6 1454 1170 1337 1354 1446

Gujarat 1474.0 1891 1806 1949 1894 1942

Haryana 3613.0 2749 2941 3051 3238 3361

Jammu & Kashmir 561.3 1941 1969 2150 2194 2133

Jharkhand 3336.4 1695 1305 1150 1828 2018

Karnataka 3717.0 2375 2712 3868 2470 2625

Madhya Pradesh 1461.9 1018 720 999 824 938

Maharashtra 2996.0 1853 1425 1779 1680 1903

Orissa 7540.7 1496 1446 1531 1534 1694

Punjab 10489.0 3694 3943 3858 3868 4019

Tamil Nadu 5040.2 2308 2703 2546 3423 2817

Uttar Pradesh 11780.0 2187 1790 1996 1879 2063

West Bengal 14719.5 2504 2574 2509 2593 2573

All India 96692.9 2078 1984 2102 2131 2202

Inter State variation in yield rates (Wheat)

State/ UT

Production Yield (Kg./Hectare)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bihar 4450.4 1776 1609 1617 1908 2058

Gujarat 3838.0 2681 2482 2700 2498 3013

Haryana 10236.0 3937 3901 3844 4232 4158

Madhya Pradesh 6032.5 1800 1735 1613 1835 1612

Maharashtra 2078.7 1170 1344 1393 1325 1659

Punjab 15720.0 4207 4221 4179 4210 4507

Rajasthan 7124.9 2794 2839 2762 2751 2749

Uttar Pradesh 25679.0 2794 2502 2627 2721 2817

All India 78570.2 2713 2602 2619 2708 2802

Inter State variation in yield rates (Total Coarse Cereals)

State/UTProduction Yield (Kg/Hectare)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Andhra Pradesh 4274.0 2139 2026 2772 2305 3336

Bihar 1498.5 2296 2293 2021 2555 2185

Gujarat 2151.0 1492 1083 1142 928 1373

Haryana 1357.0 1486 1249 1124 1567 1762

Madhya Pradesh 2122.5 1401 1062 1150 918 1082

Maharashtra 7093.0 746 820 887 895 1122

Tamil Nadu 1357.1 1056 1054 985 1951 1943

Uttar Pradesh 3058.9 1366 1577 1383 1404 1454

All India 40750.4 1221 1153 1172 1182 1431

Inter State variation in yield rates (Groundnut)

States

Production Yield (Kgs./Hect.)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Andhra Pradesh 2604.0 660 890 728 557 1451

Gujarat 3299.0 2235 943 1734 809 1777

Karnataka 733.0 530 766 645 497 807

Maharashtra 472.0 1153 1123 958 889 1168

Rajasthan 477.4 1566 1552 1549 1310 1728

Tamil Nadu 1047.6 1552 1632 1775 1981 1957

All India 9182.5 1357 1020 1187 866 1459

Inter State variation in yield rates (Soyabean)

STATES

Production Yield (Kgs./Hect.)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Andhra Pradesh 173.0 1569 1567 1949 1515 1966

Madhya Pradesh 5480.5 1105 835 1058 1006 1091

Maharashtra 3976.0 1396 900 1077 1147 1492

Rajasthan 1071.2 1400 1425 1150 1203 1343

All India 10968.2 1193 908 1073 1063 1235

Inter State variation in yield rates (Cotton)

STATES

Production Yield ( Kg/Hect. )

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Andhra Pradesh 3491.0 384 316 347 381 523

Gujarat 8276.0 417 421 604 625 581

Haryana 1885.0 454 568 437 582 663

Maharashtra 7015.0 190 176 187 253 373

Punjab 2355.0 556 697 731 750 663

All India 25884.1 307 318 362 421 467

Inter-agency variation in the estimates within the State

State

Production (Lakh Tonnes)2006-07 2007-08

DESCane

Commissioner

Difference DESCane

Commissioner

Difference

Uttar Pradesh 1339.49 1586.22 -246.73 1246.65 1650.00 -403.35

Maharashtra 785.68 834.44 -48.76 884.37 791.00 93.37

Tamil Nadu 411.24 268.36 142.88 380.71 269.00 111.71

Karnataka 286.70 388.00 -101.30 262.40 365.00 -102.60

Andhra Pradesh 216.92 216.00 0.92 202.96 196.80 6.16

Gujarat 156.30 132.33 23.97 151.90 136.69 15.21

Bihar 59.56 143.60 -84.04 38.55 159.50 -120.95

Others 299.31 249.91 49.40 314.34 364.38 -50.04

All-India 3555.20 3818.86 -263.66 3481.88 3932.37 -450.49

Suggestions  Crop estimates should not be treated as a routine activity.

The assessment need to be validated by considering rainfall, weather conditions and market behaviour.

A Core Group of officers of concerned departments under the leadership of State Agriculture Secretary may periodically meet to firm up the estimates with other State Agencies before furnishing data to the Central Government

Contd…

The Core Group should also liaise with D/Sugar, D/Horticulture, other agriculture input related Deptts. (e.g. Irrigation, Power, Weather, Remote Sensing, Agriculture Research Institute etc.) before finalising estimates of area and production.

States with low yield rates in some crops should scrutinize more closely and validate their assessment.

Despite financial support under various schemes in the Agriculture sector, if the productivity is not increasing in some States, what are the reasons?

Thanks !!!

Inter State variation in yield rates (Gram)

State/ UTProduction Yield (Kg./Hectare)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Andhra Pradesh 912.0 1083 1012 1591 1085 1448

Chattisgarh 205.8 964 542 706 843 874

Gujarat 210.0 884 803 850 870 977

Madhya Pradesh 1735.0 926 928 926 980 711

Maharashtra 1116.0 530 561 691 706 825

Rajasthan 574.2 633 747 443 863 466

Uttar Pradesh 376.0 1035 910 893 742 745

All India 5748.6 811 815 808 845 762

Inter State variation in yield rates (Pulses)

State/UTProduction Yield (Kg./Hectare)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Andhra Pradesh 1697.0 567 565 772 679 803

Bihar 497.1 814 710 749 722 818

Chhattisgarh 536.8 608 395 477 543 586

Gujarat 743.0 748 675 704 593 843

Haryana 101.8 719 793 622 824 602

Jharkhand 301.8 508 586 592 686 736

Karnataka 1265.0 304 376 487 377 531

Madhya Pradesh 2453.6 761 759 754 780 609

Maharashtra 3024.0 569 492 584 602 746

Orissa 383.5 382 388 416 445 446

Rajasthan 1552.8 590 375 261 462 401

All India 14761.5 635 577 598 612 625

Inter State variation in yield rates (Oilseeds)

STATESProduction Yied (Kgs./Hect.)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Andhra Pradesh 3390.0 634 757 698 609 1276

Gujarat 4725.0 1901 990 1544 908 1618

Haryana 642.8 1547 1176 1124 1344 1214

Karnataka 1549.0 412 587 600 478 681

Madhya Prd. 6352.0 1049 833 1009 955 1015

Maharashtra 4874.0 1057 817 925 963 1274

Rajasthan 4197.6 1239 1079 1134 1146 1051

Tamil Nadu 1146.7 1386 1483 1624 1829 1739

Uttar Prd. 1146.8 852 861 993 837 856

All India 29755.3 1064 885 1004 916 1115

Inter State variation in yield rates (Sugarcane)

STATES/UTProduction Yield (Kgs./Hect.)

2007-08 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Andhra Pradesh 20296.0 72105 74948 76765 82167 82170

Bihar 3854.9 41370 39460 42822 45953 35496

Gujarat 15190.0 71820 74072 74010 73037 71991

Haryana 8860.0 58000 62000 64409 68429 63286

Karnataka 26240.0 65826 80202 83411 87944 85752

Maharashtra 88437.0 57941 63194 77551 74898 80912

Tamil Nadu 38071.0 91910 100845 104671 105123 107484

Uttar Pradesh 124665.3 55541 60733 58201 59626 57212

Uttaranchal 7686.0 59773 60196 60733 50413 61984

All India 348187.9 59380 64752 66919 69022 68877

Variation in Production Estimates

Year Estimated Production of Foodgrains

(Million Tonnes)

2nd Advance

3rd

Advance4th

AdvanceFinal

Estimate

2006-07 209.17 211.78 216.13 217.28

1.25% 2.05% 0.53%

2007-08 219.32 227.32 230.67 230.78

3.65% 1.47% 0.05%

Contd…