46
FRBNY P25 P75 1/3/2006 2.477519 2.55 2.92 1/4/2006 2.500552 2.55 2.92 1/5/2006 2.439049 2.55 2.92 1/6/2006 2.440682 2.55 2.92 1/7/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 1/8/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 1/9/2006 2.44008 2.55 2.92 1/10/2006 2.479854 2.55 2.92 1/11/2006 2.492478 2.55 2.92 1/12/2006 2.512521 2.55 2.92 1/13/2006 2.511107 2.55 2.92 1/14/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 1/15/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 1/16/2006 2.48443 2.55 2.92 1/17/2006 2.509163 2.55 2.92 1/18/2006 2.520594 2.55 2.92 1/19/2006 2.50615 2.55 2.92 1/20/2006 2.467065 2.55 2.92 1/21/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 1/22/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 1/23/2006 2.445154 2.55 2.92 1/24/2006 2.49171 2.55 2.92 1/25/2006 2.496313 2.55 2.92 1/26/2006 2.496313 2.55 2.92 1/27/2006 2.520719 2.55 2.92 1/28/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 1/29/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 1/30/2006 2.532495 2.55 2.92 1/31/2006 2.609193 2.55 2.92 2/1/2006 2.577685 2.55 2.92 2/2/2006 2.568377 2.55 2.92 2/3/2006 2.56562 2.55 2.92 2/4/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 2/5/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 2/6/2006 2.582015 2.55 2.92 2/7/2006 2.565994 2.55 2.92 2/8/2006 2.570343 2.55 2.92 2/9/2006 2.588949 2.55 2.92 2/10/2006 2.585384 2.55 2.92 2/11/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 2/12/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92 2/13/2006 2.574758 2.55 2.92 2/14/2006 2.55164 2.55 2.92 2/15/2006 2.538384 2.55 2.92

Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

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Page 1: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

FRBNY P25 P751/3/2006 2.477519 2.55 2.921/4/2006 2.500552 2.55 2.921/5/2006 2.439049 2.55 2.921/6/2006 2.440682 2.55 2.921/7/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.921/8/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.921/9/2006 2.44008 2.55 2.92

1/10/2006 2.479854 2.55 2.921/11/2006 2.492478 2.55 2.921/12/2006 2.512521 2.55 2.921/13/2006 2.511107 2.55 2.921/14/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.921/15/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.921/16/2006 2.48443 2.55 2.921/17/2006 2.509163 2.55 2.921/18/2006 2.520594 2.55 2.921/19/2006 2.50615 2.55 2.921/20/2006 2.467065 2.55 2.921/21/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.921/22/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.921/23/2006 2.445154 2.55 2.921/24/2006 2.49171 2.55 2.921/25/2006 2.496313 2.55 2.921/26/2006 2.496313 2.55 2.921/27/2006 2.520719 2.55 2.921/28/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.921/29/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.921/30/2006 2.532495 2.55 2.921/31/2006 2.609193 2.55 2.92

2/1/2006 2.577685 2.55 2.922/2/2006 2.568377 2.55 2.922/3/2006 2.56562 2.55 2.922/4/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.922/5/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.922/6/2006 2.582015 2.55 2.922/7/2006 2.565994 2.55 2.922/8/2006 2.570343 2.55 2.922/9/2006 2.588949 2.55 2.92

2/10/2006 2.585384 2.55 2.922/11/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.922/12/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.922/13/2006 2.574758 2.55 2.922/14/2006 2.55164 2.55 2.922/15/2006 2.538384 2.55 2.922/16/2006 2.54248 2.55 2.922/17/2006 2.55406 2.55 2.922/18/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

Page 2: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

2/19/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.922/20/2006 2.543063 2.55 2.922/21/2006 2.526489 2.55 2.922/22/2006 2.519118 2.55 2.922/23/2006 2.528555 2.55 2.922/24/2006 2.53193 2.55 2.922/25/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.922/26/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.922/27/2006 2.559653 2.55 2.922/28/2006 2.60973 2.55 2.92

3/1/2006 2.611989 2.55 2.923/2/2006 2.64901 2.55 2.923/3/2006 2.608845 2.55 2.923/4/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.923/5/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.923/6/2006 2.584904 2.55 2.923/7/2006 2.584904 2.55 2.923/8/2006 2.580802 2.55 2.923/9/2006 2.598996 2.55 2.92

3/10/2006 2.604989 2.55 2.923/11/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.923/12/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.923/13/2006 2.594209 2.55 2.923/14/2006 2.553787 2.55 2.923/15/2006 2.563504 2.55 2.923/16/2006 2.554188 2.55 2.923/17/2006 2.540878 2.55 2.923/18/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.923/19/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.923/20/2006 2.568592 2.55 2.923/21/2006 2.554444 2.55 2.923/22/2006 2.53782 2.55 2.923/23/2006 2.548413 2.55 2.923/24/2006 2.536947 2.55 2.923/25/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.923/26/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.923/27/2006 2.533059 2.55 2.923/28/2006 2.582699 2.55 2.923/29/2006 2.584565 2.55 2.923/30/2006 2.565851 2.55 2.923/31/2006 2.57731 2.55 2.92

4/1/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.924/2/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.924/3/2006 2.604656 2.55 2.924/4/2006 2.590262 2.55 2.924/5/2006 2.650441 2.55 2.924/6/2006 2.626277 2.55 2.924/7/2006 2.607042 2.55 2.92

Page 3: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

4/8/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.924/9/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

4/10/2006 2.626947 2.55 2.924/11/2006 2.658364 2.55 2.924/12/2006 2.617614 2.55 2.924/13/2006 2.671386 2.55 2.924/14/2006 2.688124 2.55 2.924/15/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.924/16/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.924/17/2006 2.678535 2.55 2.924/18/2006 2.663303 2.55 2.924/19/2006 2.616535 2.55 2.924/20/2006 2.655176 2.55 2.924/21/2006 2.667365 2.55 2.924/22/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.924/23/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.924/24/2006 2.691497 2.55 2.924/25/2006 2.774341 2.55 2.924/26/2006 2.783345 2.55 2.924/27/2006 2.74487 2.55 2.924/28/2006 2.724816 2.55 2.924/29/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.924/30/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

5/1/2006 2.706631 2.55 2.925/2/2006 2.720948 2.55 2.925/3/2006 2.713442 2.55 2.925/4/2006 2.746206 2.55 2.925/5/2006 2.725241 2.55 2.925/6/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.925/7/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.925/8/2006 2.747044 2.55 2.925/9/2006 2.789622 2.55 2.92

5/10/2006 2.791176 2.55 2.925/11/2006 2.752743 2.55 2.925/12/2006 2.796605 2.55 2.925/13/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.925/14/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.925/15/2006 2.734952 2.55 2.925/16/2006 2.685222 2.55 2.925/17/2006 2.705391 2.55 2.925/18/2006 2.654012 2.55 2.925/19/2006 2.702058 2.55 2.925/20/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.925/21/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.925/22/2006 2.718118 2.55 2.925/23/2006 2.69963 2.55 2.925/24/2006 2.688635 2.55 2.925/25/2006 2.754388 2.55 2.92

Page 4: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

5/26/2006 2.703162 2.55 2.925/27/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.925/28/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.925/29/2006 2.640268 2.55 2.925/30/2006 2.664757 2.55 2.925/31/2006 2.634217 2.55 2.92

6/1/2006 2.579626 2.55 2.926/2/2006 2.59045 2.55 2.926/3/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.926/4/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.926/5/2006 2.566135 2.55 2.926/6/2006 2.570095 2.55 2.926/7/2006 2.564167 2.55 2.926/8/2006 2.589454 2.55 2.926/9/2006 2.629477 2.55 2.92

6/10/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.926/11/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.926/12/2006 2.611527 2.55 2.926/13/2006 2.576378 2.55 2.926/14/2006 2.589793 2.55 2.926/15/2006 2.581103 2.55 2.926/16/2006 2.630251 2.55 2.926/17/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.926/18/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.926/19/2006 2.608816 2.55 2.926/20/2006 2.601269 2.55 2.926/21/2006 2.597252 2.55 2.926/22/2006 2.609796 2.55 2.926/23/2006 2.678468 2.55 2.926/24/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.926/25/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.926/26/2006 2.659299 2.55 2.926/27/2006 2.642717 2.55 2.926/28/2006 2.642597 2.55 2.926/29/2006 2.614482 2.55 2.926/30/2006 2.633877 2.55 2.92

7/1/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/2/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/3/2006 2.642597 2.55 2.927/4/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/5/2006 2.614482 2.55 2.927/6/2006 2.633877 2.55 2.927/7/2006 2.610906 2.55 2.927/8/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/9/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

7/10/2006 2.571416 2.55 2.927/11/2006 2.575612 2.55 2.927/12/2006 2.590597 2.55 2.92

Page 5: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

7/13/2006 2.647158 2.55 2.927/14/2006 2.611532 2.55 2.927/15/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/16/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/17/2006 2.608723 2.55 2.927/18/2006 2.632243 2.55 2.927/19/2006 2.672289 2.55 2.927/20/2006 2.616599 2.55 2.927/21/2006 2.617426 2.55 2.927/22/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/23/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/24/2006 2.655784 2.55 2.927/25/2006 2.660108 2.55 2.927/26/2006 2.672715 2.55 2.927/27/2006 2.662756 2.55 2.927/28/2006 2.662756 2.55 2.927/29/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/30/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.927/31/2006 2.640855 2.55 2.92

8/1/2006 2.664325 2.55 2.928/2/2006 2.671456 2.55 2.928/3/2006 2.664973 2.55 2.928/4/2006 2.654774 2.55 2.928/5/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.928/6/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.928/7/2006 2.645722 2.55 2.928/8/2006 2.688937 2.55 2.928/9/2006 2.70876 2.55 2.92

8/10/2006 2.692852 2.55 2.928/11/2006 2.659859 2.55 2.928/12/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.928/13/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.928/14/2006 2.662963 2.55 2.928/15/2006 2.674447 2.55 2.928/16/2006 2.65515 2.55 2.928/17/2006 2.657672 2.55 2.928/18/2006 2.652233 2.55 2.928/19/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.928/20/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.928/21/2006 2.644139 2.55 2.928/22/2006 2.649034 2.55 2.928/23/2006 2.621069 2.55 2.928/24/2006 2.607082 2.55 2.928/25/2006 2.616048 2.55 2.928/26/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.928/27/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.928/28/2006 2.590571 2.55 2.928/29/2006 2.609639 2.55 2.92

Page 6: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

8/30/2006 2.593179 2.55 2.928/31/2006 2.631753 2.55 2.92

9/1/2006 2.629935 2.55 2.929/2/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.929/3/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.929/4/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.929/5/2006 2.609851 2.55 2.929/6/2006 2.599842 2.55 2.929/7/2006 2.584827 2.55 2.929/8/2006 2.56541 2.55 2.929/9/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

9/10/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.929/11/2006 2.559403 2.55 2.929/12/2006 2.572885 2.55 2.929/13/2006 2.55582 2.55 2.929/14/2006 2.592033 2.55 2.929/15/2006 2.568629 2.55 2.929/16/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.929/17/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.929/18/2006 2.553897 2.55 2.929/19/2006 2.548984 2.55 2.929/20/2006 2.52521 2.55 2.929/21/2006 2.495965 2.55 2.929/22/2006 2.50706 2.55 2.929/23/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.929/24/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.929/25/2006 2.489036 2.55 2.929/26/2006 2.489828 2.55 2.929/27/2006 2.367867 2.55 2.929/28/2006 2.488906 2.55 2.929/29/2006 2.510187 2.55 2.929/30/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/1/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/2/2006 2.4678 2.55 2.9210/3/2006 2.45139 2.55 2.9210/4/2006 2.455078 2.55 2.9210/5/2006 2.480994 2.55 2.9210/6/2006 2.483637 2.55 2.9210/7/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/8/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/9/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

10/10/2006 2.487347 2.55 2.9210/11/2006 2.474062 2.55 2.9210/12/2006 2.470808 2.55 2.9210/13/2006 2.496666 2.55 2.9210/14/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/15/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/16/2006 2.495237 2.55 2.92

Page 7: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

10/17/2006 2.482494 2.55 2.9210/18/2006 2.487784 2.55 2.9210/19/2006 2.469521 2.55 2.9210/20/2006 2.465057 2.55 2.9210/21/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/22/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/23/2006 2.461103 2.55 2.9210/24/2006 2.451076 2.55 2.9210/25/2006 2.446228 2.55 2.9210/26/2006 2.459799 2.55 2.9210/27/2006 2.44541 2.55 2.9210/28/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/29/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/30/2006 2.444906 2.55 2.9210/31/2006 2.430143 2.55 2.92

11/1/2006 2.449555 2.55 2.9211/2/2006 2.447987 2.55 2.9211/3/2006 2.48299 2.55 2.9211/4/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/5/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/6/2006 2.493465 2.55 2.9211/7/2006 2.506338 2.55 2.9211/8/2006 2.506396 2.55 2.9211/9/2006 2.499872 2.55 2.92

11/10/2006 2.486723 2.55 2.9211/11/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/12/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/13/2006 2.461746 2.55 2.9211/14/2006 2.446775 2.55 2.9211/15/2006 2.443908 2.55 2.9211/16/2006 2.441606 2.55 2.9211/17/2006 2.425915 2.55 2.9211/18/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/19/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/20/2006 2.406188 2.55 2.9211/21/2006 2.370878 2.55 2.9211/22/2006 2.367793 2.55 2.9211/23/2006 2.367713 2.55 2.9211/24/2006 2.384245 2.55 2.9211/25/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/26/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/27/2006 2.384265 2.55 2.9211/28/2006 2.360602 2.55 2.9211/29/2006 2.362692 2.55 2.9211/30/2006 2.366814 2.55 2.92

12/1/2006 2.390219 2.55 2.9212/2/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/3/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

Page 8: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

12/4/2006 2.376268 2.55 2.9212/5/2006 2.404879 2.55 2.9212/6/2006 2.392052 2.55 2.9212/7/2006 2.390753 2.55 2.9212/8/2006 2.389962 2.55 2.9212/9/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

12/10/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/11/2006 2.395637 2.55 2.9212/12/2006 2.389309 2.55 2.9212/13/2006 2.399237 2.55 2.9212/14/2006 2.381401 2.55 2.9212/15/2006 2.338367 2.55 2.9212/16/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/17/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/18/2006 2.340695 2.55 2.9212/19/2006 2.341038 2.55 2.9212/20/2006 2.34944 2.55 2.9212/21/2006 2.296162 2.55 2.9212/22/2006 2.305654 2.55 2.9212/23/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/24/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/25/2006 2.305551 2.55 2.9212/26/2006 2.297287 2.55 2.9212/27/2006 2.301585 2.55 2.9212/28/2006 2.307218 2.55 2.9212/29/2006 2.31071 2.55 2.9212/30/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/31/2006 #N/A 2.55 2.92

1/1/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.921/2/2007 2.310761 2.55 2.921/3/2007 2.309411 2.55 2.921/4/2007 2.277601 2.55 2.921/5/2007 2.291027 2.55 2.921/6/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.921/7/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.921/8/2007 2.280923 2.55 2.921/9/2007 2.301625 2.55 2.92

1/10/2007 2.303268 2.55 2.921/11/2007 2.28283 2.55 2.921/12/2007 2.281163 2.55 2.921/13/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.921/14/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.921/15/2007 2.28116 2.55 2.921/16/2007 2.306198 2.55 2.921/17/2007 2.307478 2.55 2.921/18/2007 2.34692 2.55 2.921/19/2007 2.34585 2.55 2.921/20/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.92

Page 9: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

1/21/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.921/22/2007 2.366294 2.55 2.921/23/2007 2.399279 2.55 2.921/24/2007 2.414353 2.55 2.921/25/2007 2.450856 2.55 2.921/26/2007 2.416578 2.55 2.921/27/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.921/28/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.921/29/2007 2.426259 2.55 2.921/30/2007 2.435491 2.55 2.921/31/2007 2.456005 2.55 2.92

2/1/2007 2.506701 2.55 2.922/2/2007 2.521868 2.55 2.922/3/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.922/4/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.922/5/2007 2.487085 2.55 2.922/6/2007 2.464955 2.55 2.922/7/2007 2.477701 2.55 2.922/8/2007 2.473092 2.55 2.922/9/2007 2.504911 2.55 2.92

2/10/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.922/11/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.922/12/2007 2.474424 2.55 2.922/13/2007 2.487727 2.55 2.922/14/2007 2.522926 2.55 2.922/15/2007 2.488756 2.55 2.922/16/2007 2.468892 2.55 2.922/17/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.922/18/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.922/19/2007 2.468738 2.55 2.922/20/2007 2.472474 2.55 2.922/21/2007 2.500823 2.55 2.922/22/2007 2.50391 2.55 2.922/23/2007 2.491989 2.55 2.922/24/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.922/25/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.922/26/2007 2.507493 2.55 2.922/27/2007 2.492611 2.55 2.922/28/2007 2.508102 2.55 2.92

3/1/2007 2.487834 2.55 2.923/2/2007 2.470174 2.55 2.923/3/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.923/4/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.923/5/2007 2.450364 2.55 2.923/6/2007 2.446874 2.55 2.923/7/2007 2.435564 2.55 2.923/8/2007 2.429952 2.55 2.923/9/2007 2.436565 2.55 2.92

Page 10: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

3/10/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.923/11/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.923/12/2007 2.429155 2.55 2.923/13/2007 2.447492 2.55 2.923/14/2007 2.493209 2.55 2.923/15/2007 2.498686 2.55 2.923/16/2007 2.479821 2.55 2.923/17/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.923/18/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.923/19/2007 2.466298 2.55 2.923/20/2007 2.484618 2.55 2.923/21/2007 2.561446 2.55 2.923/22/2007 2.538396 2.55 2.923/23/2007 2.550889 2.55 2.923/24/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.923/25/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.923/26/2007 2.585397 2.55 2.923/27/2007 2.59468 2.55 2.923/28/2007 2.565349 2.55 2.923/29/2007 2.576436 2.55 2.923/30/2007 2.578664 2.55 2.923/31/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.92

4/1/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/2/2007 2.553609 2.55 2.924/3/2007 2.513214 2.55 2.924/4/2007 2.533646 2.55 2.924/5/2007 2.585302 2.55 2.924/6/2007 2.592836 2.55 2.924/7/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/8/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/9/2007 2.59732 2.55 2.92

4/10/2007 2.585877 2.55 2.924/11/2007 2.566512 2.55 2.924/12/2007 2.555012 2.55 2.924/13/2007 2.566199 2.55 2.924/14/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/15/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/16/2007 2.529202 2.55 2.924/17/2007 2.520682 2.55 2.924/18/2007 2.519808 2.55 2.924/19/2007 2.501143 2.55 2.924/20/2007 2.530173 2.55 2.924/21/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/22/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/23/2007 2.522651 2.55 2.924/24/2007 2.48698 2.55 2.924/25/2007 2.512994 2.55 2.924/26/2007 2.518032 2.55 2.92

Page 11: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

4/27/2007 2.522801 2.55 2.924/28/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/29/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.924/30/2007 2.491473 2.55 2.92

5/1/2007 2.510103 2.55 2.925/2/2007 2.481154 2.55 2.925/3/2007 2.473374 2.55 2.925/4/2007 2.48243 2.55 2.925/5/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.925/6/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.925/7/2007 2.480204 2.55 2.925/8/2007 2.490844 2.55 2.925/9/2007 2.475834 2.55 2.92

5/10/2007 2.474851 2.55 2.925/11/2007 2.472683 2.55 2.925/12/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.925/13/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.925/14/2007 2.458423 2.55 2.925/15/2007 2.419178 2.55 2.925/16/2007 2.421076 2.55 2.925/17/2007 2.429181 2.55 2.925/18/2007 2.428815 2.55 2.925/19/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.925/20/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.925/21/2007 2.437981 2.55 2.925/22/2007 2.435311 2.55 2.925/23/2007 2.481465 2.55 2.925/24/2007 2.477183 2.55 2.925/25/2007 2.474752 2.55 2.925/26/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.925/27/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.925/28/2007 2.474752 2.55 2.925/29/2007 2.480444 2.55 2.925/30/2007 2.491571 2.55 2.925/31/2007 2.495584 2.55 2.92

6/1/2007 2.495584 2.55 2.926/2/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.926/3/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.926/4/2007 2.520239 2.55 2.926/5/2007 2.548879 2.55 2.926/6/2007 2.543503 2.55 2.926/7/2007 2.674915 2.55 2.926/8/2007 2.614451 2.55 2.926/9/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.92

6/10/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.926/11/2007 2.627905 2.55 2.926/12/2007 2.697955 2.55 2.926/13/2007 2.65508 2.55 2.92

Page 12: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

6/14/2007 2.637952 2.55 2.926/15/2007 2.610303 2.55 2.926/16/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.926/17/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.926/18/2007 2.614741 2.55 2.926/19/2007 2.634515 2.55 2.926/20/2007 2.658527 2.55 2.926/21/2007 2.687436 2.55 2.926/22/2007 2.698113 2.55 2.926/23/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.926/24/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.926/25/2007 2.651621 2.55 2.926/26/2007 2.604771 2.55 2.926/27/2007 2.630192 2.55 2.926/28/2007 2.594316 2.55 2.926/29/2007 2.61033 2.55 2.926/30/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.92

7/1/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/2/2007 2.587901 2.55 2.927/3/2007 2.59074 2.55 2.927/4/2007 2.577637 2.55 2.927/5/2007 2.616505 2.55 2.927/6/2007 2.614641 2.55 2.927/7/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/8/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/9/2007 2.619256 2.55 2.92

7/10/2007 2.58727 2.55 2.927/11/2007 2.606554 2.55 2.927/12/2007 2.601783 2.55 2.927/13/2007 2.55058 2.55 2.927/14/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/15/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/16/2007 2.582516 2.55 2.927/17/2007 2.549901 2.55 2.927/18/2007 2.597887 2.55 2.927/19/2007 2.597586 2.55 2.927/20/2007 2.581458 2.55 2.927/21/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/22/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/23/2007 2.587466 2.55 2.927/24/2007 2.631657 2.55 2.927/25/2007 2.620577 2.55 2.927/26/2007 2.640384 2.55 2.927/27/2007 2.641722 2.55 2.927/28/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/29/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.927/30/2007 2.666846 2.55 2.927/31/2007 2.669269 2.55 2.92

Page 13: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

8/1/2007 2.736265 2.55 2.928/2/2007 2.71914 2.55 2.928/3/2007 2.697394 2.55 2.928/4/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.928/5/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.928/6/2007 2.672502 2.55 2.928/7/2007 2.74697 2.55 2.928/8/2007 2.717504 2.55 2.928/9/2007 2.722429 2.55 2.92

8/10/2007 2.774385 2.55 2.928/11/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.928/12/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.928/13/2007 2.757122 2.55 2.928/14/2007 2.753968 2.55 2.928/15/2007 2.733584 2.55 2.928/16/2007 2.754424 2.55 2.928/17/2007 2.77981 2.55 2.928/18/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.928/19/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.928/20/2007 2.763624 2.55 2.928/21/2007 2.781755 2.55 2.928/22/2007 2.766859 2.55 2.928/23/2007 2.73167 2.55 2.928/24/2007 2.714581 2.55 2.928/25/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.928/26/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.928/27/2007 2.728307 2.55 2.928/28/2007 2.742616 2.55 2.928/29/2007 2.692052 2.55 2.928/30/2007 2.703135 2.55 2.928/31/2007 2.685388 2.55 2.92

9/1/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.929/2/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.929/3/2007 2.684563 2.55 2.929/4/2007 2.679087 2.55 2.929/5/2007 2.688548 2.55 2.929/6/2007 2.692445 2.55 2.929/7/2007 2.687543 2.55 2.929/8/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.929/9/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.92

9/10/2007 2.706857 2.55 2.929/11/2007 2.718812 2.55 2.929/12/2007 2.726393 2.55 2.929/13/2007 2.718252 2.55 2.929/14/2007 2.732437 2.55 2.929/15/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.929/16/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.929/17/2007 2.724826 2.55 2.92

Page 14: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

9/18/2007 2.815641 2.55 2.929/19/2007 2.835777 2.55 2.929/20/2007 2.883742 2.55 2.929/21/2007 2.794698 2.55 2.929/22/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.929/23/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.929/24/2007 2.788818 2.55 2.929/25/2007 2.773453 2.55 2.929/26/2007 2.783557 2.55 2.929/27/2007 2.752999 2.55 2.929/28/2007 2.775868 2.55 2.929/29/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.929/30/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/1/2007 2.745951 2.55 2.9210/2/2007 2.760484 2.55 2.9210/3/2007 2.737327 2.55 2.9210/4/2007 2.735162 2.55 2.9210/5/2007 2.731801 2.55 2.9210/6/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/7/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/8/2007 2.731053 2.55 2.9210/9/2007 2.716734 2.55 2.92

10/10/2007 2.716237 2.55 2.9210/11/2007 2.711567 2.55 2.9210/12/2007 2.69052 2.55 2.9210/13/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/14/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/15/2007 2.693089 2.55 2.9210/16/2007 2.700297 2.55 2.9210/17/2007 2.745386 2.55 2.9210/18/2007 2.660567 2.55 2.9210/19/2007 2.668824 2.55 2.9210/20/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/21/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/22/2007 2.664936 2.55 2.9210/23/2007 2.691171 2.55 2.9210/24/2007 2.683843 2.55 2.9210/25/2007 2.731562 2.55 2.9210/26/2007 2.745893 2.55 2.9210/27/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/28/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/29/2007 2.717753 2.55 2.9210/30/2007 2.693213 2.55 2.9210/31/2007 2.689038 2.55 2.92

11/1/2007 2.696957 2.55 2.9211/2/2007 2.741893 2.55 2.9211/3/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/4/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.92

Page 15: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

11/5/2007 2.771513 2.55 2.9211/6/2007 2.762268 2.55 2.9211/7/2007 2.743857 2.55 2.9211/8/2007 2.761146 2.55 2.9211/9/2007 2.75045 2.55 2.92

11/10/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/11/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/12/2007 2.804372 2.55 2.9211/13/2007 2.714591 2.55 2.9211/14/2007 2.740823 2.55 2.9211/15/2007 2.710781 2.55 2.9211/16/2007 2.71611 2.55 2.9211/17/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/18/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/19/2007 2.766088 2.55 2.9211/20/2007 2.806744 2.55 2.9211/21/2007 2.746444 2.55 2.9211/22/2007 2.746444 2.55 2.9211/23/2007 2.745337 2.55 2.9211/24/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/25/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/26/2007 2.808946 2.55 2.9211/27/2007 2.759908 2.55 2.9211/28/2007 2.712203 2.55 2.9211/29/2007 2.728423 2.55 2.9211/30/2007 2.794287 2.55 2.92

12/1/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/2/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/3/2007 2.7975 2.55 2.9212/4/2007 2.811026 2.55 2.9212/5/2007 2.73894 2.55 2.9212/6/2007 2.751298 2.55 2.9212/7/2007 2.787693 2.55 2.9212/8/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/9/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.92

12/10/2007 2.799338 2.55 2.9212/11/2007 2.753812 2.55 2.9212/12/2007 2.779362 2.55 2.9212/13/2007 2.807711 2.55 2.9212/14/2007 2.831843 2.55 2.9212/15/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/16/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/17/2007 2.824813 2.55 2.9212/18/2007 2.850044 2.55 2.9212/19/2007 2.811667 2.55 2.9212/20/2007 2.790628 2.55 2.9212/21/2007 2.793104 2.55 2.9212/22/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.92

Page 16: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

12/23/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/24/2007 2.821001 2.55 2.9212/25/2007 2.70208 2.55 2.9212/26/2007 2.803945 2.55 2.9212/27/2007 2.781551 2.55 2.9212/28/2007 2.774517 2.55 2.9212/29/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/30/2007 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/31/2007 2.746229 2.55 2.92

1/1/2008 2.821851 2.55 2.921/2/2008 2.75278 2.55 2.921/3/2008 2.745055 2.55 2.921/4/2008 2.77354 2.55 2.921/5/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.921/6/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.921/7/2008 2.706784 2.55 2.921/8/2008 2.760282 2.55 2.921/9/2008 2.727893 2.55 2.92

1/10/2008 2.778787 2.55 2.921/11/2008 2.840121 2.55 2.921/12/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.921/13/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.921/14/2008 2.858277 2.55 2.921/15/2008 2.845625 2.55 2.921/16/2008 2.821278 2.55 2.921/17/2008 2.831269 2.55 2.921/18/2008 2.861634 2.55 2.921/19/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.921/20/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.921/21/2008 2.860353 2.55 2.921/22/2008 2.98227 2.55 2.921/23/2008 2.983992 2.55 2.921/24/2008 3.001449 2.55 2.921/25/2008 2.953061 2.55 2.921/26/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.921/27/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.921/28/2008 2.997215 2.55 2.921/29/2008 3.012031 2.55 2.921/30/2008 3.034263 2.55 2.921/31/2008 3.027936 2.55 2.92

2/1/2008 3.014405 2.55 2.922/2/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.922/3/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.922/4/2008 3.017931 2.55 2.922/5/2008 3.050715 2.55 2.922/6/2008 3.087121 2.55 2.922/7/2008 3.088132 2.55 2.922/8/2008 3.101659 2.55 2.92

Page 17: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

2/9/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.922/10/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.922/11/2008 3.113461 2.55 2.922/12/2008 3.118961 2.55 2.922/13/2008 3.092072 2.55 2.922/14/2008 3.054916 2.55 2.922/15/2008 2.932167 2.55 2.922/16/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.922/17/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.922/18/2008 2.930908 2.55 2.922/19/2008 2.961531 2.55 2.922/20/2008 3.014156 2.55 2.922/21/2008 3.013882 2.55 2.922/22/2008 3.026735 2.55 2.922/23/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.922/24/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.922/25/2008 3.030773 2.55 2.922/26/2008 3.073907 2.55 2.922/27/2008 3.089342 2.55 2.922/28/2008 3.111172 2.55 2.922/29/2008 3.074471 2.55 2.92

3/1/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/2/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/3/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/4/2008 3.174254 2.55 2.923/5/2008 3.247663 2.55 2.923/6/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/7/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/8/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/9/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.92

3/10/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/11/2008 3.25498 2.55 2.923/12/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/13/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/14/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/15/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/16/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/17/2008 3.090006 2.55 2.923/18/2008 3.202215 2.55 2.923/19/2008 3.188594 2.55 2.923/20/2008 3.186184 2.55 2.923/21/2008 3.185637 2.55 2.923/22/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/23/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/24/2008 3.149536 2.55 2.923/25/2008 3.082206 2.55 2.923/26/2008 3.096927 2.55 2.923/27/2008 3.125718 2.55 2.92

Page 18: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

3/28/2008 3.107667 2.55 2.923/29/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/30/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.923/31/2008 3.074788 2.55 2.92

4/1/2008 3.058596 2.55 2.924/2/2008 3.067824 2.55 2.924/3/2008 3.008628 2.55 2.924/4/2008 2.975438 2.55 2.924/5/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.924/6/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.924/7/2008 2.970677 2.55 2.924/8/2008 2.971902 2.55 2.924/9/2008 2.971725 2.55 2.92

4/10/2008 2.975733 2.55 2.924/11/2008 3.004323 2.55 2.924/12/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.924/13/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.924/14/2008 3.014704 2.55 2.924/15/2008 3.044004 2.55 2.924/16/2008 3.055462 2.55 2.924/17/2008 3.003228 2.55 2.924/18/2008 2.991751 2.55 2.924/19/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.924/20/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.924/21/2008 2.98389 2.55 2.924/22/2008 2.91913 2.55 2.924/23/2008 2.917 2.55 2.924/24/2008 2.890572 2.55 2.924/25/2008 2.863639 2.55 2.924/26/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.924/27/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.924/28/2008 2.864776 2.55 2.924/29/2008 2.83979 2.55 2.924/30/2008 2.861539 2.55 2.92

5/1/2008 2.855825 2.55 2.925/2/2008 2.895918 2.55 2.925/3/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.925/4/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.925/5/2008 2.907551 2.55 2.925/6/2008 2.95146 2.55 2.925/7/2008 2.952978 2.55 2.925/8/2008 2.976374 2.55 2.925/9/2008 2.978754 2.55 2.92

5/10/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.925/11/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.925/12/2008 2.967017 2.55 2.925/13/2008 3.01093 2.55 2.925/14/2008 3.020572 2.55 2.92

Page 19: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

5/15/2008 3.022858 2.55 2.925/16/2008 3.042108 2.55 2.925/17/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.925/18/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.925/19/2008 3.064479 2.55 2.925/20/2008 3.05484 2.55 2.925/21/2008 3.080419 2.55 2.925/22/2008 3.081224 2.55 2.925/23/2008 3.08781 2.55 2.925/24/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.925/25/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.925/26/2008 3.086756 2.55 2.925/27/2008 3.064956 2.55 2.925/28/2008 3.033833 2.55 2.925/29/2008 3.057871 2.55 2.925/30/2008 3.065111 2.55 2.925/31/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.92

6/1/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/2/2008 3.135448 2.55 2.926/3/2008 3.060527 2.55 2.926/4/2008 3.087373 2.55 2.926/5/2008 3.120768 2.55 2.926/6/2008 3.137965 2.55 2.926/7/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/8/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/9/2008 3.095578 2.55 2.92

6/10/2008 3.09142 2.55 2.926/11/2008 3.058645 2.55 2.926/12/2008 3.01061 2.55 2.926/13/2008 2.929928 2.55 2.926/14/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/15/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/16/2008 2.935497 2.55 2.926/17/2008 2.948563 2.55 2.926/18/2008 2.918925 2.55 2.926/19/2008 2.926019 2.55 2.926/20/2008 2.91367 2.55 2.926/21/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/22/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/23/2008 2.888542 2.55 2.926/24/2008 2.889244 2.55 2.926/25/2008 2.929181 2.55 2.926/26/2008 2.983109 2.55 2.926/27/2008 2.960686 2.55 2.926/28/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/29/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.926/30/2008 2.986139 2.55 2.92

7/1/2008 2.943999 2.55 2.92

Page 20: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

7/2/2008 2.990152 2.55 2.927/3/2008 3.027484 2.55 2.927/4/2008 3.02725 2.55 2.927/5/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.927/6/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.927/7/2008 2.950291 2.55 2.927/8/2008 2.952577 2.55 2.927/9/2008 2.965045 2.55 2.92

7/10/2008 2.90222 2.55 2.927/11/2008 2.873701 2.55 2.927/12/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.927/13/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.927/14/2008 2.918544 2.55 2.927/15/2008 2.952932 2.55 2.927/16/2008 2.995303 2.55 2.927/17/2008 2.970123 2.55 2.927/18/2008 2.985101 2.55 2.927/19/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.927/20/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.927/21/2008 2.951053 2.55 2.927/22/2008 2.952289 2.55 2.927/23/2008 2.943136 2.55 2.927/24/2008 2.980369 2.55 2.927/25/2008 2.996976 2.55 2.927/26/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.927/27/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.927/28/2008 2.975419 2.55 2.927/29/2008 3.016395 2.55 2.927/30/2008 3.010763 2.55 2.927/31/2008 3.015948 2.55 2.92

8/1/2008 3.014236 2.55 2.928/2/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.928/3/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.928/4/2008 3.011333 2.55 2.928/5/2008 2.967912 2.55 2.928/6/2008 2.947675 2.55 2.928/7/2008 2.912932 2.55 2.928/8/2008 2.89545 2.55 2.928/9/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.92

8/10/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.928/11/2008 2.898325 2.55 2.928/12/2008 2.885327 2.55 2.928/13/2008 2.865109 2.55 2.928/14/2008 2.880313 2.55 2.928/15/2008 2.825385 2.55 2.928/16/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.928/17/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.928/18/2008 2.796399 2.55 2.92

Page 21: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

8/19/2008 2.799384 2.55 2.928/20/2008 2.835389 2.55 2.928/21/2008 2.845077 2.55 2.928/22/2008 2.83178 2.55 2.928/23/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.928/24/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.928/25/2008 2.806276 2.55 2.928/26/2008 2.815662 2.55 2.928/27/2008 2.845434 2.55 2.928/28/2008 2.83614 2.55 2.928/29/2008 2.834543 2.55 2.928/30/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.928/31/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.92

9/1/2008 2.833044 2.55 2.929/2/2008 2.800897 2.55 2.929/3/2008 2.758073 2.55 2.929/4/2008 2.717884 2.55 2.929/5/2008 2.779415 2.55 2.929/6/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.929/7/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.929/8/2008 2.792614 2.55 2.929/9/2008 2.770746 2.55 2.92

9/10/2008 2.818243 2.55 2.929/11/2008 2.845702 2.55 2.929/12/2008 2.856218 2.55 2.929/13/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.929/14/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.929/15/2008 2.810622 2.55 2.929/16/2008 2.706956 2.55 2.929/17/2008 2.691037 2.55 2.929/18/2008 2.66957 2.55 2.929/19/2008 3.02869 2.55 2.929/20/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.929/21/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.929/22/2008 3.002108 2.55 2.929/23/2008 2.925538 2.55 2.929/24/2008 2.918987 2.55 2.929/25/2008 2.937294 2.55 2.929/26/2008 2.88838 2.55 2.929/27/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.929/28/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.929/29/2008 2.731229 2.55 2.929/30/2008 2.697625 2.55 2.9210/1/2008 2.640171 2.55 2.9210/2/2008 2.604057 2.55 2.9210/3/2008 2.520751 2.55 2.9210/4/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/5/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.92

Page 22: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

10/6/2008 2.460906 2.55 2.9210/7/2008 2.385261 2.55 2.9210/8/2008 2.249926 2.55 2.9210/9/2008 2.382819 2.55 2.92

10/10/2008 2.35133 2.55 2.9210/11/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/12/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/13/2008 2.347891 2.55 2.9210/14/2008 2.561931 2.55 2.9210/15/2008 2.652374 2.55 2.9210/16/2008 3.01972 2.55 2.9210/17/2008 3.242354 2.55 2.9210/18/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/19/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/20/2008 3.319009 2.55 2.9210/21/2008 3.382089 2.55 2.9210/22/2008 3.37179 2.55 2.9210/23/2008 3.297182 2.55 2.9210/24/2008 3.045676 2.55 2.9210/25/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/26/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/27/2008 3.192393 2.55 2.9210/28/2008 3.533745 2.55 2.9210/29/2008 3.554188 2.55 2.9210/30/2008 3.446273 2.55 2.9210/31/2008 3.448234 2.55 2.92

11/1/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/2/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/3/2008 3.562148 2.55 2.9211/4/2008 3.8769 2.55 2.9211/5/2008 3.681973 2.55 2.9211/6/2008 3.561569 2.55 2.9211/7/2008 3.480701 2.55 2.9211/8/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/9/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.92

11/10/2008 3.41772 2.55 2.9211/11/2008 3.415634 2.55 2.9211/12/2008 3.353262 2.55 2.9211/13/2008 3.018792 2.55 2.9211/14/2008 2.90643 2.55 2.9211/15/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/16/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/17/2008 2.769989 2.55 2.9211/18/2008 2.581778 2.55 2.9211/19/2008 2.365306 2.55 2.9211/20/2008 1.931663 2.55 2.9211/21/2008 1.98225 2.55 2.9211/22/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.92

Page 23: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

11/23/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/24/2008 2.105581 2.55 2.9211/25/2008 2.214263 2.55 2.9211/26/2008 2.45487 2.55 2.9211/27/2008 2.452732 2.55 2.9211/28/2008 2.568151 2.55 2.9211/29/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/30/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.92

12/1/2008 2.686553 2.55 2.9212/2/2008 2.743052 2.55 2.9212/3/2008 2.891561 2.55 2.9212/4/2008 3.001641 2.55 2.9212/5/2008 3.006464 2.55 2.9212/6/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/7/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/8/2008 3.000708 2.55 2.9212/9/2008 2.966639 2.55 2.92

12/10/2008 3.003812 2.55 2.9212/11/2008 3.014455 2.55 2.9212/12/2008 2.907873 2.55 2.9212/13/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/14/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/15/2008 2.894487 2.55 2.9212/16/2008 2.866822 2.55 2.9212/17/2008 2.787202 2.55 2.9212/18/2008 2.513644 2.55 2.9212/19/2008 2.541799 2.55 2.9212/20/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/21/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/22/2008 2.537346 2.55 2.9212/23/2008 2.54418 2.55 2.9212/24/2008 2.527147 2.55 2.9212/25/2008 2.525239 2.55 2.9212/26/2008 2.503391 2.55 2.9212/27/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/28/2008 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/29/2008 2.453637 2.55 2.9212/30/2008 2.462263 2.55 2.9212/31/2008 2.415171 2.55 2.92

1/1/2009 2.413261 2.55 2.921/2/2009 2.46585 2.55 2.921/3/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.921/4/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.921/5/2009 2.51323 2.55 2.921/6/2009 2.586534 2.55 2.921/7/2009 2.587418 2.55 2.921/8/2009 2.601504 2.55 2.921/9/2009 2.529546 2.55 2.92

Page 24: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

1/10/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.921/11/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.921/12/2009 2.671462 2.55 2.921/13/2009 2.45181 2.55 2.921/14/2009 2.306847 2.55 2.921/15/2009 2.190571 2.55 2.921/16/2009 1.908084 2.55 2.921/17/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.921/18/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.921/19/2009 1.905262 2.55 2.921/20/2009 2.004714 2.55 2.921/21/2009 2.011867 2.55 2.921/22/2009 2.065073 2.55 2.921/23/2009 2.181078 2.55 2.921/24/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.921/25/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.921/26/2009 2.281547 2.55 2.921/27/2009 2.161755 2.55 2.921/28/2009 2.221553 2.55 2.921/29/2009 2.256151 2.55 2.921/30/2009 2.445849 2.55 2.921/31/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.92

2/1/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.922/2/2009 2.409278 2.55 2.922/3/2009 2.383418 2.55 2.922/4/2009 2.334553 2.55 2.922/5/2009 2.250541 2.55 2.922/6/2009 2.291704 2.55 2.922/7/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.922/8/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.922/9/2009 2.454403 2.55 2.92

2/10/2009 2.319542 2.55 2.922/11/2009 2.193407 2.55 2.922/12/2009 2.205957 2.55 2.922/13/2009 2.394203 2.55 2.922/14/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.922/15/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.922/16/2009 2.339451 2.55 2.922/17/2009 2.254089 2.55 2.922/18/2009 2.256074 2.55 2.922/19/2009 2.254237 2.55 2.922/20/2009 2.173578 2.55 2.922/21/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.922/22/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.922/23/2009 2.176013 2.55 2.922/24/2009 2.057835 2.55 2.922/25/2009 2.03747 2.55 2.922/26/2009 1.976603 2.55 2.92

Page 25: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

2/27/2009 2.059421 2.55 2.922/28/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.92

3/1/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/2/2009 2.056345 2.55 2.923/3/2009 2.129045 2.55 2.923/4/2009 2.098896 2.55 2.923/5/2009 1.973443 2.55 2.923/6/2009 1.865709 2.55 2.923/7/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/8/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/9/2009 1.910709 2.55 2.92

3/10/2009 1.887166 2.55 2.923/11/2009 1.970767 2.55 2.923/12/2009 2.190953 2.55 2.923/13/2009 2.156032 2.55 2.923/14/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/15/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/16/2009 2.23272 2.55 2.923/17/2009 2.213851 2.55 2.923/18/2009 2.313247 2.55 2.923/19/2009 2.340321 2.55 2.923/20/2009 2.221528 2.55 2.923/21/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/22/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/23/2009 2.309835 2.55 2.923/24/2009 2.247675 2.55 2.923/25/2009 2.354828 2.55 2.923/26/2009 2.438788 2.55 2.923/27/2009 2.434866 2.55 2.923/28/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/29/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.923/30/2009 2.350654 2.55 2.923/31/2009 2.328945 2.55 2.92

4/1/2009 2.329403 2.55 2.924/2/2009 2.333631 2.55 2.924/3/2009 2.397574 2.55 2.924/4/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.924/5/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.924/6/2009 2.452019 2.55 2.924/7/2009 2.3005 2.55 2.924/8/2009 2.263606 2.55 2.924/9/2009 2.279909 2.55 2.92

4/10/2009 2.283407 2.55 2.924/11/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.924/12/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.924/13/2009 2.270317 2.55 2.924/14/2009 2.247813 2.55 2.924/15/2009 2.308627 2.55 2.92

Page 26: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

4/16/2009 2.222682 2.55 2.924/17/2009 2.152601 2.55 2.924/18/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.924/19/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.924/20/2009 2.1657 2.55 2.924/21/2009 2.198635 2.55 2.924/22/2009 2.415599 2.55 2.924/23/2009 2.531528 2.55 2.924/24/2009 2.610266 2.55 2.924/25/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.924/26/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.924/27/2009 2.593831 2.55 2.924/28/2009 2.618516 2.55 2.924/29/2009 2.603337 2.55 2.924/30/2009 2.567739 2.55 2.92

5/1/2009 2.549781 2.55 2.925/2/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.925/3/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.925/4/2009 2.508348 2.55 2.925/5/2009 2.464099 2.55 2.925/6/2009 2.51833 2.55 2.925/7/2009 2.556923 2.55 2.925/8/2009 2.590823 2.55 2.925/9/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.92

5/10/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.925/11/2009 2.534856 2.55 2.925/12/2009 2.588875 2.55 2.925/13/2009 2.548193 2.55 2.925/14/2009 2.58884 2.55 2.925/15/2009 2.596761 2.55 2.925/16/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.925/17/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.925/18/2009 2.675704 2.55 2.925/19/2009 2.719315 2.55 2.925/20/2009 2.776485 2.55 2.925/21/2009 2.827162 2.55 2.925/22/2009 2.914305 2.55 2.925/23/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.925/24/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.925/25/2009 2.911866 2.55 2.925/26/2009 2.883037 2.55 2.925/27/2009 2.98872 2.55 2.925/28/2009 2.937567 2.55 2.925/29/2009 2.871904 2.55 2.925/30/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.925/31/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.92

6/1/2009 3.00195 2.55 2.926/2/2009 2.993718 2.55 2.92

Page 27: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

6/3/2009 2.854414 2.55 2.926/4/2009 2.83874 2.55 2.926/5/2009 2.838911 2.55 2.926/6/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.926/7/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.926/8/2009 2.776975 2.55 2.926/9/2009 2.756217 2.55 2.92

6/10/2009 2.747595 2.55 2.926/11/2009 2.719064 2.55 2.926/12/2009 2.605892 2.55 2.926/13/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.926/14/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.926/15/2009 2.549948 2.55 2.926/16/2009 2.525753 2.55 2.926/17/2009 2.463867 2.55 2.926/18/2009 2.685178 2.55 2.926/19/2009 2.725234 2.55 2.926/20/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.926/21/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.926/22/2009 2.71822 2.55 2.926/23/2009 2.732452 2.55 2.926/24/2009 2.738192 2.55 2.926/25/2009 2.640523 2.55 2.926/26/2009 2.617586 2.55 2.926/27/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.926/28/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.926/29/2009 2.678315 2.55 2.926/30/2009 2.673169 2.55 2.92

7/1/2009 2.680827 2.55 2.927/2/2009 2.601701 2.55 2.927/3/2009 2.609154 2.55 2.927/4/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.927/5/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.927/6/2009 2.587022 2.55 2.927/7/2009 2.605826 2.55 2.927/8/2009 2.516972 2.55 2.927/9/2009 2.61077 2.55 2.92

7/10/2009 2.551977 2.55 2.927/11/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.927/12/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.927/13/2009 2.563617 2.55 2.927/14/2009 2.623576 2.55 2.927/15/2009 2.798247 2.55 2.927/16/2009 2.810417 2.55 2.927/17/2009 2.904909 2.55 2.927/18/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.927/19/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.927/20/2009 2.901953 2.55 2.92

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7/21/2009 2.79488 2.55 2.927/22/2009 2.906627 2.55 2.927/23/2009 3.034009 2.55 2.927/24/2009 2.950345 2.55 2.927/25/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.927/26/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.927/27/2009 2.954201 2.55 2.927/28/2009 2.916352 2.55 2.927/29/2009 2.891205 2.55 2.927/30/2009 2.960448 2.55 2.927/31/2009 2.863094 2.55 2.92

8/1/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/2/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/3/2009 2.951502 2.55 2.928/4/2009 2.92819 2.55 2.928/5/2009 3.021985 2.55 2.928/6/2009 2.99452 2.55 2.928/7/2009 3.133269 2.55 2.928/8/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/9/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.92

8/10/2009 3.075649 2.55 2.928/11/2009 3.042541 2.55 2.928/12/2009 3.025109 2.55 2.928/13/2009 2.977134 2.55 2.928/14/2009 2.908622 2.55 2.928/15/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/16/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/17/2009 2.897893 2.55 2.928/18/2009 2.954956 2.55 2.928/19/2009 2.922761 2.55 2.928/20/2009 2.940074 2.55 2.928/21/2009 2.984745 2.55 2.928/22/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/23/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/24/2009 2.912008 2.55 2.928/25/2009 2.831837 2.55 2.928/26/2009 2.810866 2.55 2.928/27/2009 2.817052 2.55 2.928/28/2009 2.790831 2.55 2.928/29/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/30/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.928/31/2009 2.742091 2.55 2.92

9/1/2009 2.770079 2.55 2.929/2/2009 2.674652 2.55 2.929/3/2009 2.75954 2.55 2.929/4/2009 2.857624 2.55 2.929/5/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.929/6/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.92

Page 29: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

9/7/2009 2.85973 2.55 2.929/8/2009 2.908922 2.55 2.929/9/2009 2.888321 2.55 2.92

9/10/2009 2.757244 2.55 2.929/11/2009 2.718828 2.55 2.929/12/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.929/13/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.929/14/2009 2.711522 2.55 2.929/15/2009 2.763925 2.55 2.929/16/2009 2.770826 2.55 2.929/17/2009 2.706556 2.55 2.929/18/2009 2.731959 2.55 2.929/19/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.929/20/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.929/21/2009 2.744237 2.55 2.929/22/2009 2.750282 2.55 2.929/23/2009 2.7399 2.55 2.929/24/2009 2.692737 2.55 2.929/25/2009 2.691973 2.55 2.929/26/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.929/27/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.929/28/2009 2.681054 2.55 2.929/29/2009 2.663896 2.55 2.929/30/2009 2.681823 2.55 2.9210/1/2009 2.65063 2.55 2.9210/2/2009 2.58897 2.55 2.9210/3/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/4/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/5/2009 2.644687 2.55 2.9210/6/2009 2.652787 2.55 2.9210/7/2009 2.659797 2.55 2.9210/8/2009 2.701435 2.55 2.9210/9/2009 2.761217 2.55 2.92

10/10/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/11/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/12/2009 2.755418 2.55 2.9210/13/2009 2.75119 2.55 2.9210/14/2009 2.881887 2.55 2.9210/15/2009 2.933977 2.55 2.9210/16/2009 2.887266 2.55 2.9210/17/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/18/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/19/2009 2.936718 2.55 2.9210/20/2009 2.883781 2.55 2.9210/21/2009 2.89812 2.55 2.9210/22/2009 2.855713 2.55 2.9210/23/2009 2.849329 2.55 2.9210/24/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.92

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10/25/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/26/2009 2.797731 2.55 2.9210/27/2009 2.82108 2.55 2.9210/28/2009 2.744963 2.55 2.9210/29/2009 2.833239 2.55 2.9210/30/2009 2.808394 2.55 2.9210/31/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.92

11/1/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/2/2009 2.856635 2.55 2.9211/3/2009 2.875837 2.55 2.9211/4/2009 2.98821 2.55 2.9211/5/2009 2.998021 2.55 2.9211/6/2009 3.010037 2.55 2.9211/7/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/8/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/9/2009 3.050905 2.55 2.92

11/10/2009 3.023717 2.55 2.9211/11/2009 3.023113 2.55 2.9211/12/2009 2.991507 2.55 2.9211/13/2009 2.992814 2.55 2.9211/14/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/15/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/16/2009 2.98105 2.55 2.9211/17/2009 2.962699 2.55 2.9211/18/2009 2.992368 2.55 2.9211/19/2009 2.985765 2.55 2.9211/20/2009 2.952226 2.55 2.9211/21/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/22/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/23/2009 3.015271 2.55 2.9211/24/2009 2.938242 2.55 2.9211/25/2009 2.876565 2.55 2.9211/26/2009 2.872023 2.55 2.9211/27/2009 2.876209 2.55 2.9211/28/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/29/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/30/2009 2.871956 2.55 2.92

12/1/2009 2.93954 2.55 2.9212/2/2009 2.978791 2.55 2.9212/3/2009 2.977079 2.55 2.9212/4/2009 2.984078 2.55 2.9212/5/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/6/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/7/2009 2.990797 2.55 2.9212/8/2009 2.952323 2.55 2.9212/9/2009 2.929535 2.55 2.92

12/10/2009 2.953724 2.55 2.9212/11/2009 3.001676 2.55 2.92

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12/12/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/13/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/14/2009 3.058169 2.55 2.9212/15/2009 3.08477 2.55 2.9212/16/2009 3.069076 2.55 2.9212/17/2009 3.029672 2.55 2.9212/18/2009 3.06026 2.55 2.9212/19/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/20/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/21/2009 3.147876 2.55 2.9212/22/2009 3.145055 2.55 2.9212/23/2009 3.105895 2.55 2.9212/24/2009 3.089645 2.55 2.9212/25/2009 3.09305 2.55 2.9212/26/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/27/2009 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/28/2009 3.137332 2.55 2.9212/29/2009 3.157329 2.55 2.9212/30/2009 3.1113 2.55 2.9212/31/2009 3.127575 2.55 2.92

1/1/2010 3.131164 2.55 2.921/2/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.921/3/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.921/4/2010 3.126687 2.55 2.921/5/2010 3.051963 2.55 2.921/6/2010 3.075088 2.55 2.921/7/2010 3.131888 2.55 2.921/8/2010 3.111624 2.55 2.921/9/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

1/10/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.921/11/2010 3.161238 2.55 2.921/12/2010 3.151371 2.55 2.921/13/2010 3.119477 2.55 2.921/14/2010 3.074655 2.55 2.921/15/2010 3.113882 2.55 2.921/16/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.921/17/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.921/18/2010 3.112524 2.55 2.921/19/2010 3.119238 2.55 2.921/20/2010 3.1042 2.55 2.921/21/2010 3.099568 2.55 2.921/22/2010 3.047095 2.55 2.921/23/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.921/24/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.921/25/2010 3.103384 2.55 2.921/26/2010 3.125134 2.55 2.921/27/2010 3.106367 2.55 2.921/28/2010 3.172473 2.55 2.92

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1/29/2010 3.153716 2.55 2.921/30/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.921/31/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

2/1/2010 3.263429 2.55 2.922/2/2010 3.237724 2.55 2.922/3/2010 3.231237 2.55 2.922/4/2010 3.16622 2.55 2.922/5/2010 3.081921 2.55 2.922/6/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.922/7/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.922/8/2010 3.129559 2.55 2.922/9/2010 3.093799 2.55 2.92

2/10/2010 3.113481 2.55 2.922/11/2010 3.077295 2.55 2.922/12/2010 3.048376 2.55 2.922/13/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.922/14/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.922/15/2010 2.985056 2.55 2.922/16/2010 2.978814 2.55 2.922/17/2010 3.019697 2.55 2.922/18/2010 3.061846 2.55 2.922/19/2010 2.997828 2.55 2.922/20/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.922/21/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.922/22/2010 2.979057 2.55 2.922/23/2010 2.906778 2.55 2.922/24/2010 2.918972 2.55 2.922/25/2010 2.908378 2.55 2.922/26/2010 2.866681 2.55 2.922/27/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.922/28/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

3/1/2010 2.880512 2.55 2.923/2/2010 2.904823 2.55 2.923/3/2010 2.904027 2.55 2.923/4/2010 2.892247 2.55 2.923/5/2010 2.913804 2.55 2.923/6/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.923/7/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.923/8/2010 2.924252 2.55 2.923/9/2010 2.930429 2.55 2.92

3/10/2010 2.92451 2.55 2.923/11/2010 2.901383 2.55 2.923/12/2010 2.919033 2.55 2.923/13/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.923/14/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.923/15/2010 2.907169 2.55 2.923/16/2010 2.877465 2.55 2.923/17/2010 2.866865 2.55 2.92

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3/18/2010 2.831057 2.55 2.923/19/2010 2.837164 2.55 2.923/20/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.923/21/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.923/22/2010 2.821084 2.55 2.923/23/2010 2.817904 2.55 2.923/24/2010 2.847437 2.55 2.923/25/2010 2.920201 2.55 2.923/26/2010 2.891912 2.55 2.923/27/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.923/28/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.923/29/2010 2.864189 2.55 2.923/30/2010 2.881258 2.55 2.923/31/2010 2.894134 2.55 2.92

4/1/2010 2.883714 2.55 2.924/2/2010 2.907118 2.55 2.924/3/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.924/4/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.924/5/2010 2.927414 2.55 2.924/6/2010 2.95923 2.55 2.924/7/2010 2.949881 2.55 2.924/8/2010 2.954557 2.55 2.924/9/2010 2.950564 2.55 2.92

4/10/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.924/11/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.924/12/2010 2.947745 2.55 2.924/13/2010 2.921822 2.55 2.924/14/2010 2.94662 2.55 2.924/15/2010 2.982326 2.55 2.924/16/2010 2.956367 2.55 2.924/17/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.924/18/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.924/19/2010 2.958588 2.55 2.924/20/2010 2.971597 2.55 2.924/21/2010 2.93001 2.55 2.924/22/2010 2.943051 2.55 2.924/23/2010 2.992083 2.55 2.924/24/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.924/25/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.924/26/2010 2.989296 2.55 2.924/27/2010 2.958809 2.55 2.924/28/2010 3.044517 2.55 2.924/29/2010 3.07335 2.55 2.924/30/2010 3.041424 2.55 2.92

5/1/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/2/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/3/2010 3.063847 2.55 2.925/4/2010 2.964425 2.55 2.92

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5/5/2010 2.907866 2.55 2.925/6/2010 2.827609 2.55 2.925/7/2010 2.831042 2.55 2.925/8/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/9/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

5/10/2010 2.89551 2.55 2.925/11/2010 2.936936 2.55 2.925/12/2010 2.992106 2.55 2.925/13/2010 2.990301 2.55 2.925/14/2010 2.896913 2.55 2.925/15/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/16/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/17/2010 2.90248 2.55 2.925/18/2010 2.903637 2.55 2.925/19/2010 2.758778 2.55 2.925/20/2010 2.621606 2.55 2.925/21/2010 2.633663 2.55 2.925/22/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/23/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/24/2010 2.700109 2.55 2.925/25/2010 2.549884 2.55 2.925/26/2010 2.626302 2.55 2.925/27/2010 2.751237 2.55 2.925/28/2010 2.731473 2.55 2.925/29/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/30/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.925/31/2010 2.707694 2.55 2.92

6/1/2010 2.751019 2.55 2.926/2/2010 2.745745 2.55 2.926/3/2010 2.826625 2.55 2.926/4/2010 2.677827 2.55 2.926/5/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.926/6/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.926/7/2010 2.686102 2.55 2.926/8/2010 2.636814 2.55 2.926/9/2010 2.670178 2.55 2.92

6/10/2010 2.747724 2.55 2.926/11/2010 2.67038 2.55 2.926/12/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.926/13/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.926/14/2010 2.729434 2.55 2.926/15/2010 2.721789 2.55 2.926/16/2010 2.755401 2.55 2.926/17/2010 2.732573 2.55 2.926/18/2010 2.743854 2.55 2.926/19/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.926/20/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.926/21/2010 2.742105 2.55 2.92

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6/22/2010 2.676917 2.55 2.926/23/2010 2.642634 2.55 2.926/24/2010 2.624882 2.55 2.926/25/2010 2.661724 2.55 2.926/26/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.926/27/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.926/28/2010 2.641847 2.55 2.926/29/2010 2.601191 2.55 2.926/30/2010 2.542245 2.55 2.92

7/1/2010 2.408843 2.55 2.927/2/2010 2.419835 2.55 2.927/3/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.927/4/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.927/5/2010 2.411547 2.55 2.927/6/2010 2.41176 2.55 2.927/7/2010 2.459089 2.55 2.927/8/2010 2.549444 2.55 2.927/9/2010 2.618618 2.55 2.92

7/10/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.927/11/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.927/12/2010 2.611406 2.55 2.927/13/2010 2.659444 2.55 2.927/14/2010 2.640468 2.55 2.927/15/2010 2.668946 2.55 2.927/16/2010 2.629444 2.55 2.927/17/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.927/18/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.927/19/2010 2.614572 2.55 2.927/20/2010 2.6072 2.55 2.927/21/2010 2.640111 2.55 2.927/22/2010 2.672394 2.55 2.927/23/2010 2.728486 2.55 2.927/24/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.927/25/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.927/26/2010 2.71031 2.55 2.927/27/2010 2.734991 2.55 2.927/28/2010 2.737583 2.55 2.927/29/2010 2.727629 2.55 2.927/30/2010 2.724595 2.55 2.927/31/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

8/1/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.928/2/2010 2.814308 2.55 2.928/3/2010 2.829871 2.55 2.928/4/2010 2.804433 2.55 2.928/5/2010 2.822939 2.55 2.928/6/2010 2.757666 2.55 2.928/7/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.928/8/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

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8/9/2010 2.72051 2.55 2.928/10/2010 2.744103 2.55 2.928/11/2010 2.642 2.55 2.928/12/2010 2.56239 2.55 2.928/13/2010 2.554159 2.55 2.928/14/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.928/15/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.928/16/2010 2.428289 2.55 2.928/17/2010 2.472595 2.55 2.928/18/2010 2.435787 2.55 2.928/19/2010 2.374603 2.55 2.928/20/2010 2.384977 2.55 2.928/21/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.928/22/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.928/23/2010 2.364544 2.55 2.928/24/2010 2.284451 2.55 2.928/25/2010 2.332438 2.55 2.928/26/2010 2.357789 2.55 2.928/27/2010 2.421359 2.55 2.928/28/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.928/29/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.928/30/2010 2.370316 2.55 2.928/31/2010 2.32101 2.55 2.92

9/1/2010 2.382626 2.55 2.929/2/2010 2.475044 2.55 2.929/3/2010 2.548522 2.55 2.929/4/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.929/5/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.929/6/2010 2.551081 2.55 2.929/7/2010 2.51297 2.55 2.929/8/2010 2.529817 2.55 2.929/9/2010 2.63444 2.55 2.92

9/10/2010 2.686232 2.55 2.929/11/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.929/12/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.929/13/2010 2.715768 2.55 2.929/14/2010 2.667386 2.55 2.929/15/2010 2.687604 2.55 2.929/16/2010 2.707335 2.55 2.929/17/2010 2.707613 2.55 2.929/18/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.929/19/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.929/20/2010 2.758076 2.55 2.929/21/2010 2.830417 2.55 2.929/22/2010 2.731218 2.55 2.929/23/2010 2.712099 2.55 2.929/24/2010 2.699729 2.55 2.929/25/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

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9/26/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.929/27/2010 2.660184 2.55 2.929/28/2010 2.663656 2.55 2.929/29/2010 2.691385 2.55 2.929/30/2010 2.682083 2.55 2.9210/1/2010 2.66191 2.55 2.9210/2/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/3/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/4/2010 2.625701 2.55 2.9210/5/2010 2.676015 2.55 2.9210/6/2010 2.71116 2.55 2.9210/7/2010 2.709211 2.55 2.9210/8/2010 2.746385 2.55 2.9210/9/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

10/10/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/11/2010 2.773795 2.55 2.9210/12/2010 2.729703 2.55 2.9210/13/2010 2.821669 2.55 2.9210/14/2010 2.875875 2.55 2.9210/15/2010 2.966107 2.55 2.9210/16/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/17/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/18/2010 2.868045 2.55 2.9210/19/2010 2.89042 2.55 2.9210/20/2010 2.860003 2.55 2.9210/21/2010 2.91743 2.55 2.9210/22/2010 2.949626 2.55 2.9210/23/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/24/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/25/2010 2.924377 2.55 2.9210/26/2010 2.97304 2.55 2.9210/27/2010 2.986759 2.55 2.9210/28/2010 3.044231 2.55 2.9210/29/2010 3.08262 2.55 2.9210/30/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9210/31/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.92

11/1/2010 3.10555 2.55 2.9211/2/2010 3.075132 2.55 2.9211/3/2010 3.127195 2.55 2.9211/4/2010 2.838924 2.55 2.9211/5/2010 2.815889 2.55 2.9211/6/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/7/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/8/2010 2.796937 2.55 2.9211/9/2010 2.775865 2.55 2.92

11/10/2010 2.784168 2.55 2.9211/11/2010 2.781626 2.55 2.9211/12/2010 2.710856 2.55 2.92

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11/13/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/14/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/15/2010 2.714824 2.55 2.9211/16/2010 2.71888 2.55 2.9211/17/2010 2.801246 2.55 2.9211/18/2010 2.867992 2.55 2.9211/19/2010 2.877701 2.55 2.9211/20/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/21/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/22/2010 2.888243 2.55 2.9211/23/2010 2.838708 2.55 2.9211/24/2010 2.91986 2.55 2.9211/25/2010 2.902921 2.55 2.9211/26/2010 2.906797 2.55 2.9211/27/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/28/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9211/29/2010 2.893314 2.55 2.9211/30/2010 2.880673 2.55 2.92

12/1/2010 2.987241 2.55 2.9212/2/2010 3.007354 2.55 2.9212/3/2010 3.064061 2.55 2.9212/4/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/5/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/6/2010 3.058815 2.55 2.9212/7/2010 3.170547 2.55 2.9212/8/2010 3.023716 2.55 2.9212/9/2010 2.965351 2.55 2.92

12/10/2010 2.969614 2.55 2.9212/11/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/12/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/13/2010 3.026648 2.55 2.9212/14/2010 3.058412 2.55 2.9212/15/2010 3.142483 2.55 2.9212/16/2010 3.202062 2.55 2.9212/17/2010 3.085221 2.55 2.9212/18/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/19/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/20/2010 3.095554 2.55 2.9212/21/2010 3.078132 2.55 2.9212/22/2010 3.059622 2.55 2.9212/23/2010 3.064838 2.55 2.9212/24/2010 3.068419 2.55 2.9212/25/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/26/2010 #N/A 2.55 2.9212/27/2010 3.022368 2.55 2.9212/28/2010 3.021601 2.55 2.9212/29/2010 2.997516 2.55 2.9212/30/2010 3.022993 2.55 2.92

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12/31/2010 3.004651 2.55 2.921/1/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/2/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/3/2011 3.035488 2.55 2.921/4/2011 3.084946 2.55 2.921/5/2011 3.129517 2.55 2.921/6/2011 3.085712 2.55 2.921/7/2011 3.006633 2.55 2.921/8/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/9/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.92

1/10/2011 3.021724 2.55 2.921/11/2011 2.997733 2.55 2.921/12/2011 2.991796 2.55 2.921/13/2011 2.950294 2.55 2.921/14/2011 2.965585 2.55 2.921/15/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/16/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/17/2011 2.8974 2.55 2.921/18/2011 2.925795 2.55 2.921/19/2011 2.896307 2.55 2.921/20/2011 2.867851 2.55 2.921/21/2011 2.82519 2.55 2.921/22/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/23/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/24/2011 2.832047 2.55 2.921/25/2011 2.780379 2.55 2.921/26/2011 2.887091 2.55 2.921/27/2011 2.84584 2.55 2.921/28/2011 2.855435 2.55 2.921/29/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/30/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.921/31/2011 2.949593 2.55 2.92

2/1/2011 2.968393 2.55 2.922/2/2011 2.96253 2.55 2.922/3/2011 2.924382 2.55 2.922/4/2011 2.972791 2.55 2.922/5/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.922/6/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.922/7/2011 2.945206 2.55 2.922/8/2011 2.948957 2.55 2.922/9/2011 2.938313 2.55 2.92

2/10/2011 2.935719 2.55 2.922/11/2011 2.934916 2.55 2.922/12/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.922/13/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.922/14/2011 2.877585 2.55 2.922/15/2011 2.836573 2.55 2.922/16/2011 2.764377 2.55 2.92

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2/17/2011 2.780426 2.55 2.922/18/2011 2.856431 2.55 2.922/19/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.922/20/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.922/21/2011 2.843285 2.55 2.922/22/2011 2.832513 2.55 2.922/23/2011 2.810061 2.55 2.922/24/2011 2.797091 2.55 2.922/25/2011 2.863321 2.55 2.922/26/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.922/27/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.922/28/2011 2.826116 2.55 2.92

3/1/2011 2.887203 2.55 2.923/2/2011 2.89065 2.55 2.923/3/2011 2.96025 2.55 2.923/4/2011 2.967446 2.55 2.923/5/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.923/6/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.923/7/2011 2.960035 2.55 2.923/8/2011 2.994807 2.55 2.923/9/2011 2.950216 2.55 2.92

3/10/2011 2.960569 2.55 2.923/11/2011 2.917637 2.55 2.923/12/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.923/13/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.923/14/2011 2.899849 2.55 2.923/15/2011 2.876567 2.55 2.923/16/2011 2.818447 2.55 2.923/17/2011 2.804451 2.55 2.923/18/2011 2.815978 2.55 2.923/19/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.923/20/2011 #N/A 2.55 2.923/21/2011 2.774069 2.55 2.923/22/2011 2.730005 2.55 2.923/23/2011 2.709256 2.55 2.923/24/2011 2.845236 2.55 2.923/25/2011 2.815658 2.55 2.92

Page 41: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

'Prices in General' 'Rate of Inflation'11/8/2007 5.0087719 4.4888889

12/22/2007 4.6544118 4.33018872/6/2008 4.3584906 4.19117654/6/2008 5.2686567 4.7537313

5/29/2008 5.9347826 5.1257/14/2008 5.7105263 5.1202532

9/8/2008 5.2022472 4.719387810/21/2008 4.6904762 4.377551

12/3/2008 2.8055556 3.2872341/20/2009 2.7142857 2.913/10/2009 3.0204082 3.0655738

5/4/2009 3.3421053 3.33870976/15/2009 3.5384615 3.51960787/31/2009 3.6447368 3.44545459/23/2009 2.9913793 3.049180311/6/2009 2.7844828 2.9836066

12/24/2009 2.9322034 2.93752/10/2010 3.0762712 2.8840583/29/2010 3.115942 3.10294125/24/2010 2.9657534 2.84507047/14/2010 2.8455882 2.5517241

9/9/2010 2.4456522 2.48019810/26/2010 2.6465517 2.508333312/15/2010 3.1416667 2.6692308

2/16/2011 3.7727273 3.2328767

Page 42: Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations · Improving Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Charts for Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York Simon Potter E tiViP

Disagreement Median Forecast Uncertainty4/6/2008 3.5490891 4.7777778 2.681

5/29/2008 4.1720798 4.8717949 2.6617/14/2008 4.3232502 4.9411765 3

9/8/2008 3.3820833 4.3095238 2.52310/21/2008 3.8166433 3.9166667 2.427

12/3/2008 4.030721 3.1024096 2.1191/20/2009 3.2583333 3 2.0153/10/2009 3.7830941 3.1046512 2.073

5/4/2009 3.28125 3.25 2.25156/15/2009 3.537069 3.2959184 2.0037/31/2009 3.5875 3.2432432 2.1219/23/2009 3.4570707 3.3148148 2.29311/6/2009 3.0230769 3.244898 2.182

12/24/2009 3.8114583 3.1777778 2.1042/10/2010 3.1823123 3.7666667 2.48953/29/2010 3.1051213 3.4622642 2.325/24/2010 3.4057692 3.2045455 2.2167/14/2010 3.2085129 3.2386364 2.327

9/9/2010 3.2050915 3.0697674 2.10410/26/2010 3.0495356 3 212/15/2010 3.1838095 3.1960784 2.472

2/16/2011 3.3592857 3.6842105 2.4668851

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Dispersion Median Forecast Uncertainty5/29/2008 4.110648 2.731707 1.8127/14/2008 3.58689 2.375 1.343

9/8/2008 3.91414 2.480769 1.26210/21/2008 3.454162 2.148148 1.441

12/3/2008 3.394717 1.519231 1.1721/20/2009 3.07405 0.3230089 13/10/2009 2.940838 0.3086957 1.063

5/4/2009 2.71851 0.2777778 1.04956/15/2009 2.781451 0.2983871 1.1737/31/2009 3.080417 0.3170732 1.1869/23/2009 3.18125 0.3458333 1.694511/6/2009 3.0410256 0.32905983 1.0335

12/24/2009 3.037037 0.3425926 1.25652/10/2010 2.7975 0.302521 1.1653/29/2010 2.6608 0.3173 1.6695/24/2010 2.8803 0.2863 1.7167/14/2010 2.41929 0.24015 1.0225

9/9/2010 2.6942 0.31512 1.0610/26/2010 2.5755 0.29838 112/15/2010 2.5628307 0.30555556 1.076

2/16/2011 2.8187548 0.25630252 1.4321373