in Edm ont on, M ars eille and Las Veg as A Com parat ive ...grid91.com/pdf/reports/ComparativeAnalysisTerrorAttacks.pdf · toward the group’s perception of the attack having been

A Comparative Analysis of Terror Attacks in Edmonton, Marseille and Las Vegas

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TERROR ATTACKS IN EDMONTON, MARSEILLE AND LAS VEGAS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction 1

MARSEILLE, FRANCE 4

2EDMONTON, CANADA

7LAS VEGAS, USA

Forecast

Europe 10

12America



INTRODUCTION

1

With IS systematically losing hold over its territory owing to concerted efforts by multiple state and semi-

state actors, debates about it continuing to be a force to reckon with are continuously emerging. Despite

the territorial losses, the transnational militant group continues to maintain a high operational presence in

the virtual domain through its magazine, Rumiyah, and news agency, Amaq, and a host of IS-inspired groups

and IS-linked entities continue to operate and propagate its ideology. Despite best efforts of the

governments across the world, success in completely controlling or curbing IS capabilities in this realm have

been limited. This, thus enables the group to continue to propagate its ideology and carryout online

radicalization activities of certain segments of the population which can better be termed as ‘IS- inspired’

entities, as opposed to ‘IS-linked’ entities. These entities, in turn, have proved ‘efficient’ in conducting

attacks that are unsophisticated yet high on psychological impact. In light of the absence of any major IS-

affiliate in mainland Europe, majority of attacks, including the London tube bombing that wounded 30

civilians and the stabbing attack in Saint Charles railway station in Marseille, France were perpetrated by

IS-inspired entities.

The current report examines three recent attacks launched by alleged or claimed ‘IS- inspired’ entities in

France, Canada and the US between September 30-October 2. The three attacks will be analyzed on the

basis of the modus operandi employed, the perpetrators and the choice of targets and provide a forecast of

the trends in threat levels posed by the disintegration of the international militant group and its

implications.

Image of vehicle used by IS-inspired attacker in Edmonton attack


2

The assailant, a Somali refugee, carried out a vehicular attack targeting a police officer followed by a

stabbing attack during the evening hours of September 30. This was followed by a brief car chase between

the suspect and the law enforcement agents during which the former deliberately rammed his vehicle into

pedestrians, injuring four civilians. Though IS has not adopted the attack at the time of writing, an IS flag

was reportedly recovered by security forces from the vehicle used by the perpetrator to carry out the

vehicular attack. This highlights the possibility that the entity was inspired by IS ideology and undertook the

attack on behalf of the transnational militant group.

EDMONTON, CANADA

PLOT

LOCATION


3

The perpetrator of the stabbing and vehicular attack in Edmonton, Canada on September 30 was charged

with several criminal counts of murder by local law-enforcement authorities. Prima facie, the charges

appear to be surprising because of the authorities’ reluctance to press militancy-related charges against the

perpetrator. The assailant, Abdulahi Sharif, is a Somali-born asylum-seeker who entered Canada in 2012

and had been under investigation by Alberta police for “espousing extremist ideology” in 2015. However,

Sharif was released following investigations that deemed him not to be a ‘national security’ threat, citing

‘insufficient evidence’. We can draw parallels with the background of Sharif having been investigated by

Canadian law-enforcement authorities but not actively pursued to that of Aaron Driver, an IS- sympathizer

who was killed during a shootout after an attempted suicide-bombing in Ontario in August 2016 and Martin

Couture-Rouleau, another IS-inspired entity who perpetrated a vehicular attack in Quebec in October

2014.

One of the factors to be noted regarding Sharif’s background is that he was reportedly receiving

Employment Security benefits from the Federal government until January 2017 and possessed a work

permit that expired in May 2017. While it remains to be established if Sharif had been radicalized online or

had ostensibly expressed sympathies with IS, his economic situation, coupled with a perceived sense of

marginalization due to his status as an asylum-seeker, could have been caused that triggered him to

perpetrate the attack. Although an IS flag was recovered from Sharif’s car, prima facie, the unsophisticated

nature of the attack points toward a more impulsive act targeting security forces and civilians that was

aimed to secure notoriety rather than cause maximum casualties. Furthermore, the failure of the

transnational militant group to adopt the attack as one conducted by a ‘remote soldier’ inspired by their

ideology further points toward the lack of any direct line of communication between Sharif and the IS-

central. However, it is to be noted that the group likely failed to acknowledge the attack due to other

reasons such as the centrality of the location and propagandizing significance of the attack such as that in

the case of the Marseilles or the Las Vegas attack.

Despite these factors, the fact remains that Sharif was likely influenced by extremist views, especially given

the 2015 arrest record that indicates the same. Given the time lapse with regard to a likely adoption of the

attack by IS at this time, the group may seek to mention about the attack in its future magazine editions as

evidence of its reach within Western nations. This may especially be the case as the group seeks to establish

its remote presence across Europe and the Americas region through propagating their success story and

giving an identity and sense of belonging to marginalized sections of the society.

ANALYSIS


MARSEILLES, FRANCE

4

During the afternoon hours of October 1, a man armed with a knife reportedly stabbed and killed two

civilians outside the Saint-Charles Railway station in southern France’s Marseille region. The assailant was

immediately shot dead by security patrol in the vicinity following the incident. The IS-linked news agency

Amaq reported of the attack being carried out by ‘its soldier’, thus adopting the attack hours after its

occurrence.

PLOT

LOCATION


5

Image of security personnel apprehending Marseille attacker

ANALYSISThe perpetrator of the attack at the Saint-Charles station in Marseilles had reportedly been detained on

shoplifting charges and subsequently released the day before the attack on October 1. Law-enforcement

records have linked seven identities to the perpetrator at the time of writing. The last-known identity of the

attacker was that of a Tunisian national named as Ahmed H, although the passport that identified him so has

not been authenticated to have belonged to him yet. Notably, the assailant lacked any past convictions with

regard to his criminal record, although he had reportedly confessed to having been homeless, without a

stable job and being addicted to hard drugs.

The aforestated factors, taken together, only fits into the pattern of attacks that have been observed in the

past, especially in Western Europe. Furthermore, the prompt acknowledgment of the attack by IS, despite

the lack of any concrete intelligence linking the perpetrator and the Islamist group at this time, points

toward the group’s perception of the attack having been conducted due to its propaganda regarding tactics

to conduct attacks. Additionally, on the basis of the available information regarding the perpetrator, it is

likely that he belonged to a very large section of the French population, especially belonging to the African

community, which perceives itself to be among the country’s repressed communities and that have felt a

growing hatred toward the country’s law-enforcement agencies or the state, in general.


6

The attack itself, at first glance, appears to have been partially pre-meditated and also likely helped by the

consumption of drugs, if that may have been the case. Although there has been an absence of reports

regarding the perpetrator having been under the influence of drugs while conducting the attack, the very

volatile and uncoordinated approach of the perpetrator while conducting the attack only lends credence to

the assessment. The earlier confession with regard to his criminal record regarding his addiction to hard

drugs adds further weight to the analysis. The initial attempt to flee after the first stabbing of the woman,

only to return and conduct another stabbing and then consciously head toward a military patrol wielding a

gun is indicative of a strategically unplanned attack by the perpetrator. However, in spite of the overall

unsophisticated nature of the attack, and probable absence of in-depth Islamist motivations for conducting

the attack, the fact remains that the attack was likely influenced by the IS’ publicized tactics of stabbing

attacks targeting representatives of states fighting the group in Iraq and Syria.

The acknowledgment of the attack by the IS through its primary media agency was possibly an attempt by

the group to emphasize its reach and capabilities, especially given that the attack was perpetrated by a likely

sympathizer amidst hailed security-presence at a central train station as part of Operation Sentinel in

France. While the overall nature of the attack can be characterized as a “lone-wolf attack” that has been the

most frequent in western Europe, the perpetrators of these attacks provide us a pattern of having criminal

pasts. Islamist groups such as IS can easily utilize these criminals’ pasts due to their penchant for being

hailed while doing something as an extrapolation of the petty crimes that they are habituated to commit.

This has been more or less exemplified by the criminal backgrounds of attackers such as Anis Amri, who was

responsible for the Berlin Christmas market attack in December 2016. In turn, it only highlights the

possibility of a higher incidence of similar copycat attacks in countries across Western Europe in the near-

term, as IS and other Islamist groups call upon sympathizers to step up attacks.

IS claim for Las Vegas shooting attack


LAS VEGAS, USA

7

During the late evening hours of October 2, an American national from Nevada reportedly opened fire from

the 32nd floor of a hotel, Mandalay Bay Resort, and Casino, on approximately over 20,000 civilians

participating in a concert, in the adjoining Route 91 Harvest festival. At the time of writing, the Las Vegas

Metropolitan Police Department announced deaths of 59 people, with at least 516 wounded in the assault.

The assailant had reportedly committed suicide as the security forces conducted an explosive breach into

the perpetrator’s location. Differing reports indicate that at least 23 firearms were recovered by the

investing agencies of varying caliber, at least some of which were suspected to have been modified to

achieve a high and sustained rate of fire. This, coupled with ancillaries like bipods, enabled the shooter to

significantly enhance the angle of fire and thus the lethality of attack.

Within 24 hours of the incident, IS adopted the attack as being perpetrated by ‘its soldier, who had

converted to Islam a few months ago’. However, the investigation by the FBI, at the time of writing, do not

indicate of any such link between the attacker and the transnational militant group.

PLOT

LOCATION


8

The attacker, Stephen Paddock, a 64-year-old white American was reportedly a resident of Mesquite, a

desert city along the Utah-Arizona border. Paddock is said to have purchased weapons from a local firearms

dealership in Nevada after clearing the requisite background checks, especially due to his lack of any past

criminal record. A person who is said to have had no military background as per reports at the time of

writing conducted an ostensibly surgical attack that is especially characterized by the strategic planning

that likely went behind it. Although IS was prompt enough to adopt the attack as conducted by one of its

‘soldiers’, it remains to be established if the attack was really an act inspired by the group’s calls for attacks

targeting the United States and its coalition states.

Some of the glaring departures that likely questions the veracity of the IS’ claim are the American

intelligence agencies’ immediate denial of a link between any militant group and Paddock, the seemingly-

unique demographic that Paddock belongs to an absence of any evidence that indicates Paddock’s Islamist

motivations behind perpetrating the attack. Paddock was a 64-year-old affluent individual who, at first

sight, does not fit into the larger demographic that has been susceptible to the IS ideology in the past. Except

for the perpetrator of the Westminster attack in March 2017, who was 52-year-old, the IS ideology, at least

with regard to lone-wolf attackers, has largely been influential among the younger, more malleable age-

group of 15-40. Furthermore, the attackers have also been observed to have had a background of being

discriminated against or feeling a sense of being marginalized by the state, thus adding to their grievance

and likely leading them to target the state after being influenced by Islamist ideology. In that context, the

question regarding Paddock’s likely motivations brings into question the psychological state of Paddock at

the time of the attack. However, the meticulous planning that was observed to be a characteristic of the

attack undermines any theory regarding Paddock being psychologically unstable during the attack.

ANALYSIS

Image of the Las Vegas attack


9

Nevertheless, the IS’ relatively immediate adoption of the attack only points toward the group’s attempt to

propagandize its influence as the cause of such a mass-casualty attack. In that sense, while it remains to be

seen if the group indeed had any connections with Paddock, a statement identifying Paddock as its ‘soldier’

was likely intended to embed their involvement, especially as global media and the general tendency is to

attribute any such mass-casualty attacks to Islamist militancy. This, in turn, would give the group the

required glory to seek to recruit more followers, especially as such an attack in an already-divisive society

such as the US at this time will further intensify a sense of marginalization among likely oppressed

communities. To sum up, based on the available information, IS possibly perceived the Vegas attack as an

effective recruitment strategy as it seeks to gain more sympathizers rather than having directed the attack

per se.

The October 2 Las Vegas attack comes in line with a number of mass shootings that have been observed in

the US over the years. According to data collected by Gun Violence Archive, since December 2012, United

States has recorded at least 1,518 mass shootings on its territory. This higher incidence rate of mass

shootings has been regularly attributed to a number of factors, primary among them being the easy

accessibility of sophisticated firearms to civilians in the country. While this is likely to continue to be a

reason for further instances of shooting attacks in the US over the coming months and years, such attacks,

which may or may not be perpetrated by Islamist sympathizers, may regularly be claimed by Islamist groups,

given the terror value of such incidents for these militant groups.

Image of the Las Vegas attacker, Stephen Paddock


10

As general precedence for perpetrating mass-casualty attacks suggests, the modus operandi are likely to be

more sophisticated in nature, especially involving suicide attacks or low-yield IED’s. This is particularly the

case as, unlike in the USA, given the strict gun control rules that exist in Western Europe, and precedence of

low frequency of shooting attacks, militants are more likely to resort to IED attacks. Furthermore, there

remains a higher likelihood for at least some of the future attacks to be carried out by members who had

previously received training in Iraq and Syria than by entities that are inspired by the ideology of the jihadist

group and who acquired the know-how to assemble explosives via open media sources. This view is further

bolstered by reports that at least some members of the group are likely to have infiltrated into Europe

amidst the refugee exodus. Furthermore, in the wake of territorial losses, returning fighters with extensive

training are likely to continue posing a threat for the region as recruiters and militant perpetrators.

Nevertheless, instances of stabbing and vehicular attacks are likely to continue especially by IS-inspired

entities as opposed to the former IS- linked or IS- central entities. These characteristic ‘lone-wolf’ attacks

using cold weapons and needing little planning will likely witness a higher influence rate among Europe’s

criminal-minded, largely marginalised population, as they seek to be accepted under the aegis of the mother

organisation. The recurrent success of these tactics across the region are likely to add to their allure for

these anti-state individuals, who may have had nothing to do with militant indoctrination or being

radicalised. Nonetheless, it will only further breed sympathisers in a region of the world that the militant

group perceives as its primary target for attack, thus effectuating more militant attacks.

Secondly, there also remains a high likelihood for the group to increasingly target transportation network,

notably airport and rail networks in Europe, enabling high-casualty attacks with the limited resources that

are likely to be at their disposal. This is typically because of the ease of targeting crowded places and the

corresponding high degree of psychological impact these incidents inflict. Precedence of instances involving

targeting transportation network like the Brussels airport bombing and the London tube bombings are

cases in point.

Finally, though lone-wolf attacks are likely to be recorded in the future owing to its innate nature which

prevents security agencies from gathering preemptive intelligence to mitigate the threat, intermittent

attacks by small highly-trained groups also remain likely. The latter points toward the significantly enhanced

capabilities of these groups to carry out more sophisticated attacks. Encrypted communication mediums

like Telegram are likely to facilitate operations of this nature even as effective means to intercept such

communication remains limited at this time.

FORECASTEUROPE


11


12

Owing to the relaxed gun control policies in the US and as exemplified by recurrent instances of firearms-

related crimes, lone-wolf attacks by predominantly IS-inspired entities remain high. Concurrently, IS may

continue to adopt high-casualty or high-profile attacks even in cases where the assailant may not have been

linked or inspired by the transnational militant group in order to attract supporters and recruits especially in

regions with strong anti-American sentiments.

However, as compared to Europe, attacks by members of IS-central or IS- linked entities remains less likely

given the high degree of regulations and strict screening procedures employed by the American agencies on

refugees and immigrants, making it difficult for most, if not all, IS-linked or IS-central entities to gain a

foothold or operational presence in order to undertake attacks in mainland US.

FORECAST

AMERICA

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