In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. Please see disclaimer.

Macquarie Uranium Outlook China stockpiling tighens market, future in the

ARMZ of Kazakshtan

November 2010

Max Layton Macquarie Commodities Research

Level 35, CityPoint, 1 Ropemaker StreetLondon, EC2Y 9HD UK

+44 20 3037 4273max.layton@macquarie.com

Page 2

Uranium: China having a serious impact stockpiling for the future while medium term outlook bullish anyway Uranium prices have continued to rally over the past month, and are now trading at $57.50/lb U308 up over 40%

from $40/lb during 2Q10.

The market is largely attributing the rise in prices to strong fundamentals and supply disruption - particularly issues with production from ERA's Ranger mine. Overall the market is in oversupply and our information is that ERA has not been buying in the spot market.

So why are prices rising? The primary reason is that China has increased its imports of uranium to an astonishing degree so far in 2010, particularly between June and September 2010, taking material (predominantly for stockpiles) that would otherwise have been supplied into the spot market. Chinese uranium imports stand at 10,906tU over first three quarters of 2010 compared to 2,853tU over the same period in 2009 - in a ~70,000t global market.

From here, does China keep helping prices move higher or, in other words, what price level does China pull back from importing? Our data that china has been prepared to pay almost $60/lb for 1400tU of material from one particular country in the 3Q10. In addition, if China is thinking about its needs to 2020 then it has some way to go in its stockpiling endeavours on our numbers (China could buy another ~20,000tU in fact!).

If nothing else this is supportive news for uranium. However, the market is susceptible to China pulling back from buying. Other upside risks from potential supply disruption / Kazakh supply restraint uranium remain.

So while there are short term risks from 57.50/lb (I would err on side of rally fizzing out a bit), medium term uranium is still a buy.

Page 2

Page 3

Uranium summary: the bull case (3 bullet points) and the bear case (1 bullet point) 1) Kazakh and Russian trading company ties up material and has incentive to maximise profit by

restricting Kazakh uranium output

2) China continues to absorb E3 surplus for stockpiling purposes, leaving NE3 in shortage

3) Involuntary / market related supply issues arise:

Kazakh ore grades decline, costs rise and infrastructure, acid and transport issues not resolved which affects output.

Future ex-Kazakh projects are barely economic at current spot prices, so furhter industry pain delays and cancellations, resulting in market tightening by 2011/12 and, thus, still believe that $40/lb does look attractive on a medium-term view, with upside from supply disruption in a very concentrated market.

Existing producers who are fully contracted and holding low stocks, such as ERA (Ranger) and BHPB (Olympic Dam) have a supply issue

1) The bear case is prices languish around current levels for 2-3 more years – when China finishes stocking they exit the market for a period and kazakh / uzbekh supply hits spot

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Page 4

Overview – balances not pretty, thanks to base case for Kazakh supply growth but China absorbing it happily

Page 4

Source: WNA, UxC, Company Reports, Tradetech, Macquarie Research, November 2010

World uranium balanceTonnes U 2008 2009 2010e 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f---Total Primary 43785 50711 53548 59459 61694 64384 69391 74501----of which Kazakh 8521 13665 18000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000----of which Cigar Lake 0 0 0 0 0 0 1155 2310---Other Supply 19515 19779 18514 16669 16717 16536 11829 11761----of which from HEU 7315 7700 7700 7700 7700 7700 3000 3000Total Supply 63300 70490 72061 76128 78411 80920 81220 86262% Change YoY 4.6% 11.4% 2.2% 5.6% 3.0% 3.2% 0.4% 6.2%Total Requirements 64468 65619 68639 72588 75720 79256 82860 87079% Change YoY 4.0% 1.8% 4.6% 5.8% 4.3% 4.7% 4.5% 5.1%Balance -591 4871 3422 3540 2691 1664 -1639 -817Surplus/deficit (%mkt) -0.9% 7.4% 5.0% 4.9% 3.6% 2.1% -2.0% -0.9%

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A long grinding bear run has ended – but uranium is now ready for ‘bottom drawer’ investors

Source: Metal Bulletin, Macquarie Research, November 2010

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Long run uranium prices

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Phenomenal increase in Chinese uranium imports in late-2008, 2009 and 2010 – at $40-50/lb, taking surplus

Page 6

Source: Trade Statistics, Macquarie Research, November 2010

Imports mainly coming from Kazakhstan, Uzbekhistan, and Namibia

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China has imported an ASTONISHING 11,000t of uranium so far in 2010, doubling imports since 2006

Source: Trade Statistics, Macquarie Research, November 2010

Page 7

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Structural story: in the face of growing demand, there is pressure on mine supply to respond

Source: WNA, Macquarie Research, November 2010

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Uranium mine supply versus reactor requirements

Page 8

Output needs to double

Gap more than filled by secondary supplies

Page 9

Source: Company reports, AREVA, Macquarie Research, November 2010

Page 9

Build is happening & builders learning - AREVA

Page 10

Build is happening & builders learning - Westinghouse

Source: Company reports, AREVA, Macquarie Research, November 2010

Page 10

Page 11

Growth not just in China, also in other Asia, ME

Source: WNA, Macquarie Research, November 2010

New core demand from India, Russia, Korea also important – but almost all of the reactors in our model that affect 2011/12 demand (period of tightness) are already under construction.

Japanese and US capacity increases are predominantly restarts/uprates and thus don’t require forward ordering of initial cores.

Page 11

Country/Region 2008 2012/13 Change % total NotesChina 1601 6400 4798 38% Reactors under constructionJapan 6705 9151 2446 19% Restarts, 3 reactors under constructionIndia 769 2400 1631 13% Reactors under construction, stockbuildKorea 2944 4245 1302 10% Reactors under constructionUS 19750 20979 1229 10% Watts Bar, UpratesRussia 4087 4672 585 5% Reactors under constructionSubtotal 35856 47846 11990Other 28612 29326 714Total 64468 77172 12704

Uranium demand growth by country (tU)

Page 12

Corporate activity reflects fight for positioning – China/Russia less worried now owing to stockpiling/Kazakh deals, developed world activity to come as they are still the bulk consumer of uranium

Source: Company announcements, Macquarie Research, November 2010

Page 12

Other1187118%

US1975032%

France953715%

Japan670510%

Korea29445%

Russia40876%

China16012%

Canada18453%

India7691%

Germany33725%

Ukraine19873%

Uranium consumption by country, 2008 (country, tU, % share)

Total 2008 = 64468tU

US2097927%

France899812%

Korea42456%

Russia46726%

Japan915112%

Canada20863% India

24003%

Germany34214%

Ukraine21963%

Other1262516%

China64008%

Uranium consumption by country, av. 2012-13 (country, tU, % share)

Total Av. 2012/13 = 77172

Corporate activityJapanese utilities potentially taking stake in U1ARMZ taking stake in U1Japanese utilities potentially stake in Mega UraniumKEPCO taking stake in Denison minesMitsui taking stake in HoneymoonCameco/Mitsubishi purchasing KintyreCNNC / CGNPG taking stakes in Kazakh minesCGNPG taking stake in AREVA’s Uramin assets (CGNPG subsequently withdrew from proposed JV)Takeover of ForsysChinese takeover of Western ProspectorFronteer Development group announced a proposed acquisition for Aurora ARMZ bought the Effective Energy's KazakhCGNPG bought 70% of Energy MetalsKEPCO buys stake in AREVA’s Imouraren

Page 13

Spot price now below incentive prices for most projects – should result in delays and cancellations

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2010

(1) Operating expenditure numbers are estimates based on either company reports or extrapolation.

Page 13

‘Incentive price’ estimates for new uranium mines Capacity Capex Total Costs Reserves Grade %

Project Country Company Cap. Expend. lbs U308 per lb U308 20% RR OPEX per lb U308 tU U308

1 Langer Heinirch (Stage 1) Namibia Paladin 92 2600 35 7 25 32 19,769 0.06

1 Langer Heinirch (Stage 2) Namibia Paladin 142 3700 38 8 25 33 19,769 0.06

2 Valencia Namibia Forsys 227 2700 84 17 40 57 23,885 0.012

3 Etango (lower cap) Namibia Bannerman 430 6500 66 13 35 48 10,395 0.022

3 Etango (upper cap) Namibia Bannerman 430 8000 54 11 30 41 10,395 0.022

4 Kayelekera Malawi Paladin 233 3200 73 15 30 45 11,962 0.10-0.15

5 Trekkopje Namibia AREVA/CGNPG 920 13000 71 14 40 54 42,462 0.015

6 Imouraren Niger AREVA/Niger Govt 1670 11066 151 30 30 60 179,547 0.14

7 Ryst Kuil South Africa AREVA/CGNPG 500 2990 167 33 30 63 15,769 0.1

8 Dominion (Closed) South Africa Uranium One 400 2500 160 32 55 87 42,231 0.062

9 South Inkai Kazakhstan Uranium One/Kaz 64.6 1600 40 8 20 28 23,880 0.05

10 Kharasaan 1 - Stage 1 Kazakhstan Uranium One/Kaz 150 2000 75 15 25 40 34,352 0.13

10 Kharasaan 1 - Stage 2 Kazakhstan Uranium One/Kaz 200 5200 38 8 25 33 34,352 0.13

11 Cigar Lake Canada Cameco/AREVA 1500 12600 119 24 21 45 87,038 20.67

12 Midwest (Mclean Lake) Canada AREVA/Denison 750 7900 95 19 28 47 16,038 2.16-7.13

13 Honeymoon S. Australia Uranium One/Mitsui 60 880 68 14 25 39 2,500 0.24

14 Gurvanbulag Mongolia W. Prospector 280 2000 140 28 29 5715 Lost Soldier US UR Energy 83 1000 83 17 30 46 4,192 0.058-0.076

16 Lost Creek US UR Energy 113 1000 113 23 30 52 5,385 0.055-0.065

17 Beverly Four Mile West Australia Quasar Resources (75%) / Alliance Resources (25%)90 3000 30 6 32 38 10,377 0.37

18 Yeelirrie Australia BHPB 983 12000 82 16 25 41 37,390 0.15

19 Lake Maitland Australia Mega Uranium 120 1650 73 15 25 40 9,125 0.033

20 Ezulwini South Africa First Uranium 100 1000 100 20 23 43 75,383 0.051

21 Mine Waste Solutions South Africa First Uranium 316 1207 261 52 19 71 23,100 0.015

22 Mkuju River Malawi Mantra Resources 200 2500 80 16 30 46 13821.5

Median 227 2700 80 16 29 45 19769 0.060

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Existing supply is generally still profitable, but margins are contracting (and not just for the small producers)

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Page 15

Looking ahead it’s a tale of two markets - E3 and NE3

Page 15

Source: WNA, UxC, Company Reports, Tradetech, Macquarie Research, November 2010

Real bull case - China absorbs E3 surplus and we get Kazakh supply restraintBalance as % Kazakh output 36% 19% 18% 13% 8% -8% -4%

Tonnes U 2008 2009 2010e 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015fE3 supply 12743 17933 22397 24804 25020 25312 28666 28843---of which HEU*** 0 0 0 0 0 0 3000 3000E3 demand 5689 6016 7788 9709 10181 12595 13397 17140Surplus in E3 7054 11917 14609 15095 14839 12717 15269 11703

Shortage in NE3 -7645 -7046 -11187 -11555 -12148 -11053 -16908 -12520---includes HEU from Russia of 7315 7700 7700 7700 7700 7700 0 0

Global surplus -591 4871 3422 3540 2691 1664 -1639 -817Accumulated surplus through next 5 years 8293 11833 14524 16188 14548 13732

Page 16

Kazakh output the key swing factor in market – our view is that growth will slow in 2011 and no growth after that

Page 16

Kazatomprom conscious of market oversupply

But still targeting 18,000tU this year, 20,000tU next year and considering 25,000tU by 2015.

At present Kazakhstan reviewing its output strategy

Ability to maintain output at 20,000tU is still questionable

Creationg of joint marketing company with Russia could mean supply excess to Russia / China’s needs is less desirable to be produced

Page 17

After 2011 growth in supply mainly from Africa

Source: WNA, UxC, Macquarie Research, November 2010

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Assumed supply growth by country / region

Page 18

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand

Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return (>2.5% in excess for listed property trusts)Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return (within 2.5% for listed property trusts)Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return (>2.5% below for listed property trusts)

Macquarie - Asia

Outperform – expected return >+10%Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform – expected <-10%

Macquarie First South - South Africa

Outperform – return > 10% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral – return within 10% of benchmark returnUnderperform – return > 10% below benchmark return

Macquarie - Canada

Outperform – return > 5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral – return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform – return > 5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA

Outperform (Buy) – return > 5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral (Hold) – return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform (Sell) – return > 5% below benchmark return

Recommendation – 12 months

Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Volatility index definition*This is calculated from the volatility of historic price movements.

 

Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60-100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative.

High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40-60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative.

Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30-40% in a year.

Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25-30% in a year.

Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15-25% in a year.

 

* Applicable to Australian/NZ stocks only

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made:

Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests

EPS = adjusted net profit /efpowa*ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assetsROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares

All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 December 2009

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR

Outperform 47.94% 60.52% 37.50% 43.42% 65.26% 41.60% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.76% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 35.58% 18.70% 53.13% 49.06% 29.11% 36.80% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 4.51% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 16.48% 20.79% 9.38% 7.52% 5.63% 21.60% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.0% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Important disclosures:

Page 19

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