Dr. Hartwig Kremer, GKSS Forschungszentrum GmbH, Geesthacht, LOICZ, International Project Office

Land-Ocean Interactionsin the Coastal Zone

Global Change and Coastal Systems:The LOICZ global mandate and challenges at the science policy

interface

SPICOSA annual meeting 2008, 14-17 Oct, Brest, France

1. To introduce the mandate and operations of LOICZ

2. highlight key issues and multiple scales of global change across the land-coast-ocean continuum

3. flash out challenges for science/users to accomplish informed decision making

4. Highlight opportunities in a SPICOSA – LOICZ link

(Background: 18 years of interdisciplinary Earth System research on coastal change

worldwide)

Purpose of this presentation

Land-Ocean Interactionsin the Coastal Zone

LOICZ Mission:Providing science that contributes

towards understanding the Earth system in order to

inform, educate and contribute to the sustainability of the world’s coastal

zone

What

Who

WhySustainable development in the coastal zone

Scientific Steering Committee

Several 1000 Researchers International Project Office

Regional Nodes

Snapshot of LOICZ

A core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme & the International Human Dimensions Programme

on Global Environmental Change

Schelf

SozioeconomicImplications

Politics &InstitutionalReaction

quantitativebiogeochemial

fluxes,“Eco-functions”

qualitativeTarget

Descriptions

Materialfluxes

PopulationConsumption

Trade

ClimateSea level rise

Tectonic

Rivercatchment

changed GeomorphologyRiver-Coast-Shelf „Watercontinuum“ –biogeochemical Cycles, Productivity & Biodiversity, 90% Fishery,Ecosyst. services: ~$17.5 trillion, (Global ES~$33.3 trillion)

A) Cummulative human influence on 20 marine ecosystems globally; Most of the highest predicted cumulative impact is in areas of continental shelf and slope,

which are subject to both land- and ocean-based anthropogenic drivers.Coastal examples: B) Caribbean, C) North Sea, D) Japan, E) Nothaustralia/Torres Street

Halpern et al 2008

Human influence on marine ecosystems – a typology analysis

M: invasive Species,

N: Pollution/Sea Transport

C: demersal Fishery

Q: Ocean-acidification

Total area (km² - grey) and cummulative (pixel) distribution of impact scores, (black)in Mio. for single socio economic activities (Drivers) incl. Climate Change

Global Küste < 200m

Halpern et al 2008

Human influence on marine ecosystems – a typology analysis

THREE SETS OF TOOLSA. Typology (Classification)B. Modelling C. Capacity Building/Training

FIVE THEMES1. Coastal Vulnerability2. Ecosystems3. Catchment-Coast Interaction/Fluxes4. Biogeochemical Fluxes/Cycles5. Management

THREE PRIORITY TOPICS (2006-2010)1. Linking social and ecological systems

in the coastal zone (L.Mee–Dunstuffnage, SAMS)2. Assessing and predicting impacts of environmental

change on coastal ecosystems (D.Swaney–Syracous)3. Linking governance and science in coastal regions

(S.Olsen-CRC, Rhode Island)

• LOICZ-affiliated EU project “ELME: European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems” provides valuable approaches to social-ecological system assessment andmodelling, including scenarios of likely futures for European regional seas

• international session series on “Assessment of socio ecological systems”, leading to a concept paper

• EC FP7 project KnowSeas (Knowledge-based Sustainable Managementfor Europe’s Seas) prepared with multiple LOICZ partners

• SPICOSA zooms in on the assessment of policy options and aims at a framework for multiple site application

PT1: SocialPT1: Social--Ecological SystemsEcological Systems

(see http://www.elme-eu.org)

Priority Topic 1Linking Social and Ecological Systems in the Coastal Zone

On average 1 larger reservoir (> 15m Hight) is being built per day since the last 100 years (today there are more than 36 000)

Between 1951 and 1982, the rate was even higher with ca. 900 such dams per year

before 1950, there were only 8 dams in China, 1982 already 18 600 (which is about 55% of all global dams, (USA 16% and Japan 6%).

Around 10 800 km3 water are being stored in impoundments, which since the 1950s reflects a900% increase in natural fresh water (1200 km3).

Recent estimates assume that this huge amount of trapped fresh water on land may account for some 0.55 mm less in worldwide sea level rise (or around 30mm since the last 50 years). As a consequence the average annual increase over the last 80 years would need to be corrected to in total 2.46 mm – which exceeds current IPCC estimates significantly (Chao et al 2008)

societal response to global water demand- engineering

Deltas globally > 100 000 km² at sea level or below; ca. 0,5 bn people;Centers of economic and cultural development; a „mirror“ of upstream processes

Problem marine sea level rise / Delta subsidence:• Eustatic (Oceanvolume) 1,8-3 mm/a• Natural compaction; aggradation < 3mm/a• Anthropogene compaction (gas, oil, groundwater) x cm/a (Chao Praya) up to 3,7m (Po, i. 20. Jh)

Recent results based on satellite data:• 71% of 34 representative global Deltas are subsiding!• Compaction (nat./anthrop.) and low aggradation (water and power demand - Damming, Floodprotection - engineering) are equally important – in 12 of the Deltas both processes complement eachother• human influence today is more significant than others• flooding disasters increase – only in 2007/08 >100 000 victims plus > 1 Mio left homeless• Global sea level rise plays a key role – however, more important seem to be the tropical storms originating in global warming – human influence is rather limited leaving little chance to cope (e.g. Irrawaddy – May 2008)

Syvitski et al 2008a/b

The vulnerability of Deltas

The Sea Level short story

Top 20 harbor cities for population which could be exposed to a 1:100 flood (a) scenario situation today, 2005; and (b) scenario 2070’s, drivers: demography, soc-econ. activitiesand climate! (sacles!!)

Highest relative increase of „exposed“ population between today and 2070, (demography, soc-econ. activities and climate).

All are located in developing economies/regions – 17 in Asia, 3 in Africa; Increase 2 - >10 fold.

Nicholls et al 2007 OECD

A vulnerability short story: Harbor cities,Climate change and sea level

Top 20 harbor cities for assets which could be exposed to a 1:100 flood (a) scenario situation today, 2005; and (b) scenario 2070’s, drivers: demography, soc-econ activities and climate! (sacles!!)

A vulnerability short story: Harbor cities, Climate change and sea level

Highest relative increase of „exposed“ assets between today and 2070, (demography, soc-econ. activities and climate).

Mostly located in developing economies/regions – Increasearound 10 - >110 fold.

Nicholls et al 2007 OECD

Risk and security…need to be investigated as to improve our understanding of the vulnerability of socio ecological systems to risks of global change in the coast; those can be direct disturbances or long-term changes such as hydrology and sea level.

Global vulnerability maps

Syvitski et al 2005

• Use of the ASSETS model plus LOICZ Typologyapproaches and science dissemination tools in the recent US National Estuarine EutrophicationAssessment (NOAA)

• Continued work on a model evaluation andrefinement in the biogeochemical fluxes context

• Launch of a SCOR/LOICZ/CAS WG 132 on the quantification of links between eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (contribution to GEOHAB)

• Contribution to UNEP/GEF project „Enhancing the use of Sciencein International Waters projects to improve project results”

PT2: Assessing & Predicting ImpactsPT2: Assessing & Predicting Impacts

(Inauguration workshop SCOR-LOICZ-CAS WG 132,Geesthacht 07-08)

Priority Topic 2Assessing and Predicting Impacts

of Environmental Change on Coastal Ecosystems

Global hypoxia distribution(LOICZ / SCOR WG 128)Smith et al 2003, 2005, SCOPE 2008, Galloway et al 2008

Examples – The Nutrient short story

TOTAL ESTIMATED PRODUCTION,comparison with loading

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

YEAR

NIT

RO

GEN

(109 m

oles

/yr)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

PHO

SPH

OR

US

(109 m

oles

/yr)

Meybeck loadingLOICZ loading

NITROGEN

PHOSPHORUS

Nitrogen (inorgan. N) from catchments to coasts. kg N km-2

catchment area a-1

S.P. Seitzinger und C. Kroeze 1998

18% are exported into and denitrified in coastal systems13% reach the oceans via atmosphere, 4% enter the atmosphere as N²O,ca. 65% are accumulated either in the soil, vegeatation, or ground water or converted to molecular N We live in an assimilating system – with still many unknown processes.Increasing population pressure and land use e.g. for biofuelsare difficult to predict.

Estimated nitrogen deposition from global total-N emissions (NOy-NHx) = 105 Tg N a-1, in kg N ha-1 a-1 for 2050 – INI expects adverse effects on ecosystemlevelnach Denter et al 2006

Biofuels – a new big „Unknwon“ in the equation

• USA (Corn) 29 Mio ha, 160 kg N ha−1a−1 (4,64 Mio t); • Brasil (sugar cane) 7 Mio ha, 100 kg N ha−1a−1 (0,7 Mio t)• Fertilizer effectiveness (Brasil) only ~30%, most of it enters the environment; until 2016 100% increase in prodcution expected; • conclusion: Biofuel production will rapidly affect the N-cycle in tropica systems.• apprehension: Biofuels (N-intensiv) can basically overwhelm any savings in CO², N²O and O³ are likely to rise• marked-related consequences for food systems and security have not been considered

Nutrient Futures

δ15N in surface sediments

1

Vos

s et

al.,

200

5; K

ölle

, 200

4; S

eel,

2005

; Däh

nke,

per

s.

Com

m.

δ15Nitrate Elbe: 13‰ Oder: 10‰ Weichsel: 8‰

δ15Nitrate Kemijoki: 1‰

Red: 15N-enriched riverine nitrogen. δ15N can be used to estimateanthropogeniccontribution.

Blue: Nitrogen frompristine rivers (and nitrogen fixation in theBaltic).

Green: Typical values foroceanic nitrate

Biogeochemical cycles in the coastal ocean – identifying a source signature

Elevation (m)< 0

1 - 100

101 - 200

201 - 400

401 - 600

601 - 800

801 - 1,000

1,001 - 2,000

2,001 - 3,000

> 3,000

Lough Hyne

Irish Sea

Southern North Sea

Szczecin Lagoon Gulf of Gdansk

Curoninan Lagoon

Gulf of Riga

Gulf of Bothnia

Dniester Estuary

Dnieper-Bug Estuary

Inner ThermaikosGulf

Gulf of Lions

Ria of Vigo

²0 500 1,000 1,500250Kilometers

Solent Estuary

0 100 200 30050Kilometers Derived watershed

Linking Land Use and Cover Change to coastal metabolism and system change - which scale matters?

Delineating catchment areas affecting specific coastal sites:GIS based “cookie-cutters” for spatial, demographic and socio economic data; chances and problems (such as data gaps that lead to missing catchments)

Gonzalez / Swaney 2005

• Development of a methodology and proof of concept in a joint science-practitioners approach, including a- handbook (“The Why & the How of a Governance Baseline”)- set of 11 Latin American case studies that are the basis for a regional assessment of the characteristics of past and current coastal governance

- document that describes a certification of practitionersthat draws on the baselining approach

• Two Training of Trainers workshops have been held (Ecuador, Peru) and further governance baseline workshops will take place in Norway (Arctic)and China

• SPICOSA may ultimately provide a European perspective here

PT3: Coastal GovernancePT3: Coastal Governance

Priority Topic 3Linking Governance and Science

in Coastal Regions

(ToT Workshop and Certification,Guayaquil 11-07, Lima 11-08)

Economic Pressures

Legal/Political Pressures

Social Pressures

Human Uses of Ecosystems

Markets

Government

Civil Society

The three mechanisms of governance

Major Expressions of Governance

Governmentlaws and regulationstaxation, spending policies, subsidieseducation and outreach

Marketplaceprofit-seekingecosystem service evaluationmitigation/remedy cost evaluation eco-labeling & green products

Institutions and organizations of civil societysocialization processesconstituency buildingco-management Governance WG, concept note 2007/08

Governance addresses values, policies, laws and institutions. It probes the fundamental goals and the institutional processes and structures that are the basis for planning and decision-making. Management, is the process by which resources are harnessed to achieve a known goal within an institutional structure.

How to respond to pressure and change?: Three mechanisms of social regulation and institutional organization

(Governance) and scales

… and scales

administrative and/or political limits in the water continuumA: Limits across river networks; B: limits following river courses. C: coincidence of river catchment control station (S5) with international boundary; D: shared estuary between countries. Limits of international waters, EEZ outside (E1); inside (E2) the geomorphic limit of the coastal zone. Political or administrative entities: I to V.

Meybeck & Vogler 2005

Scales of Governance with relevance for hazard responsein light of current and future dimensions of Land and Sea use : Mississippi Arctic

Decrease in circumarctic sea ice opens new avenues for trade and transport – calling for good governance practice

Northern Sea RouteNorthwest Passage

Navigable waterways as well as increasing oil and gas extraction in the Arctic will have long-term implications for coastal communities – do we need a new frame for regional governance?

Informing sustainability across the science / policy interface remains a challenge for Earth system

science – some conclusions

• Solid understanding and capacity to model global change (incl. Climate change) in the age of the „Anthropocene“ calls for joined up thinking and bridging between disciplines

• Recent results e.g. linking lifestyles with coastal sea environmental functioning and quality(www.elme-eu.org) showcase that a useful simulation of interactions and feedbacks in context of socio ecological systems seems feasible

• In Europe Driver/Pressure effects on systems are linked to affluence, in Asia to economic growth –the underlying related processes and fluxes in globalisation driven for example by demand for water, food, and energy need to be reevaluated

• In this context we need to be aware that due to increased globalistaion local to regional mangementoptions/structures to cope with pressure may need to be revisited in their capacity to support system resilience!

• Science has the mandate, to bridge between different world views and to underpin this with credible information. By nature this information needs to embark from neutral grounds as to be able to feed into decison making and social choice in participatory structures. The frame should be given by the Millennium Development goals formulated at the Johannesburg 2002 summit(http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals) which aim to combat poverty and foster sustainability

people

environment

Reality

Science Community

Actors, Stakeholders

people

environment

people

environment

people

environment

Thus, the challenge for sustainable management: bridging betweendifferent world views (realities) – needs to be a key objective also for

the scientific world

Political Deciders

• 48 European and 15 non-European Universities• Courses (70 Universities), external cooperation

(30 Universities) • ASIA-LINK: 3 modules incl. a field work training module

(4 Universities)• TEMPUS: Joint curriculum development with

former Soviet Union (4 Universities)

Summer Schools, Children Universities, High School Visits, Academic Lectures

CapacityCapacityBuildingBuildingErasmus Mundus Joint Master in Water and Coastal Management

(see: http://www.ualg.pt/EUMScWCM)

• In cooperation• Different topics• New section

“Young LOICZ”

(Summer School Sylt, July 2007)

(Children University Backnang, October 2008)

• web site, newsletter, flyers• 4 new Reports & Series (e.g.Science Communication; Observing the Coastal Sea)

Publications and OutreachPublications and Outreach

• Journal articles (e.g. special issue Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science) and books (Elsevier Estuarine Ecohydrology)

• Software tools (e.g. DIVA)

• Synthesis Books – LOICZ –now online!• ELOISE, CMTT, Policypapers

LOICZ IPO

South Asia(Sri Lanka)

Southeast & East Asia(Singapore)

East Asia(China)

West Africa(Ghana, associated via

START/PACOM)

LOICZ NetworkLOICZ NetworkSSC MembersRegional Nodes

Mediterranean& Black Sea

(Greece to be opened soon)PIs – of Affiliated Projects -Corresponding SSC members

LOICZ role in SPICOSA• In general LOICZ is a platform incl. to date 60 affiliated projects for:

– mainstreamed interdisciplinary global change research in coastal zones (catchment to margin incl. humans),

– continued advancement of methodologies (e.g. LaguNet, ASSETS, Socio –Ecological Systems coupling, Governance – Baselines, typology approaches etc.), and

– continued synthesis incl. publishing platforms; – Capacity building and training, e.g. Erasmus Mundus Masters (water & coastal

management), academic and public education

• Regional workshops aim to provide a proof of concept of methods i.e. simulations of coupled socio-ecological systems, or governance baselines (currently carried out in Latin America, Arctic will likely be next) and may assist in bridging the science – policy interface

• SPICOSA could contribute to these ongoing global efforts e.g., by a European dimension; SPICOSA network members and scientists can become involved into the global assessment / synthesis and label their annual activities if they fit in the global LOICZ context

• LOICZ has a lifetime of up to 2015 so far and my assist in maintaining the SPICOSA networks and scientific legacy

LOICZ role in SPICOSAExpected synergies through a role for LOICZ in

SPICOSA:– European SPICOSA network contributes a European state

of the art research and application approach (SAF); in return LOICZ provides platform for scientific exchange and coherent synthesis

– Stronger involvement of SPICOSA focus such as science –policy – practice interface and response options (SSA level)in the global LOICZ efforts and synthesis

– LOICZ may assist in disseminating the SPICOSA efforts and provide a global exchange with scientific peers through embedding in global communication channels; LOICZ regional Nodes may be approached to assist

– LOICZ to be launching partner in Venice (Littoral) for European Coastal Platform, Nov 2008 (European-Global-Interface)

May: SessionEco-Summit(Beijing, China)

Symposia and Workshops 2007Symposia and Workshops 2007

2007

Sept.: WorkshopSCOR WG 122

(Boulder, USA)

May: WorkshopDeltas at Risk(Boulder, USA)

Oct.: WorkshopArctic Coastal Zones at Risk

(Tromsø, Norway)

Sept.: OpeningLOICZ Regional Node

(Yantai, China)June: WorkshopBALTEX/CLIVAR(Saaremaa, Estonia)

May: 18th SSC Meeting& Mini-Symposium(Vancouver, Canada)

May: WorkshopCoastal Governance

(Cork, Ireland)

July: Summer SchoolCoastal Habitats

(Sylt, Germany)

Oct.: SessionSociety for Human Ecology

(Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Sept.: ConferenceContinental Margins

(Shanghai, China)

Oct.: WorkshopScience-Policy(Male, Maldives)

Sept: WorkshopDeltas at Risk(Boulder, USA)

Page 8

Symposia and Workshops 2008Symposia and Workshops 2008

2008

May: 19th SSC Meeting(Cape Town, South Africa)

Feb.: WorkshopCoastal Governance

(Rhode Island, USA)

May: 2 Sessions4th IGBP Congress

(Cape Town, South Africa)

April: WorkshopTraining of Trainers(Guayaquil, Ecuador)

May: Summer SchoolEnvironmental Science

(Chennai, India)

May: ConferenceSocial-Ecological Systems

(Sommerhausen, Germany)

July: WorkshopSCOR WG 132

(Geesthacht, Germany)

Aug.: SessionICAMG VI

(Kochi, Japan)

Oct.: SessionEMECS-8

(Shanghai, China)

Sep.: WorkshopCoastal Nutrient Budget

(Chennai, India)

Page 9

Upcoming MilestonesUpcoming Milestones2009 2010

Interim evaluation of LOICZ 2006-10

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Set up new Priority Topics for LOICZ Phase 2011-15

Publish synthesis reportand other scientific products

Publication Synthesis / New TopicsPreparation Synthesis / Publications

LOICZ Dahlem-Type Workshop(15-19 June, Kjeller)

&20. SSC Meeting

(20-22 June, Kjeller)

LOICZ Open Science Meeting& 21. SSC Meeting

(May, Hamburg)Congress

“Storm Surges”(October, Hamburg)

IHDP OM26-30 April, Bonn

Topical workshops and synthesis sessions

Thank You