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Income-Based Work Trip Stratification within the Puget Sound Regional Council Travel Model Framework
20th InternationalEmme Users’ Conference
Montreal, QuebecThursday, October 19th, 2006
Chris JohnsonPuget Sound Regional Council
Puget Sound Regional CouncilSeattle, Washington USA
Membership
• King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish Counties
• 70 cities
• 4 Ports
• Tribes
• State agencies
• 7 Transit agencies
• Associate members
3.4 million residents
• (+1.7 million by 2040)
1.9 million jobs
• (+1.2 million by 2040)
King
Kitsap
Pierce
Snohomish
Traditional 4-Step (Trip Based)
938 Zone/19,000 Link Network
Trip Generation – Cross Classification
Trip Distribution – Gravity
Mode Choice – Multinomial/Nested Logit, Non-Motorized Modes
Time-of-Day (AM Peak Period, Mid-Day, PM Peak Period, Evening, Night)
Assignment – Multi-Class (11), Generalized Cost
Full Documentation – www.psrc.org
Overview – Basic Model Structure
Model Process
U.S. and Washington Economies
Prior Years Households and
Employment Location
Zonal Data
Land Use Allocation Models
DRAM/EMPAL
Legend:
Input Files Models/Processes Data Output Files
Output, Jobs, and Personal Income by 30 Industrial
Sectors
HighwayNetworks
Households by 4 Income Groups
and Employment by 5 Categories
Households by Workers, Income, Household Size,
and Vehicles Available
Trips by 7 Purposes (HBW
by 4 income groups)
Economic Forecasting Model STEP
Vehicle Availability
Model
Trip Generation
Model
Additional Zonal and Cost Data
TransitNetworks
Trip Distribution
Model
Mode ChoiceModel
Time of Day Model
Trip Tables by 7Trip Purposes
(HBW by 4 income groups)
Trip Tables by 5 Trip
Purposes and 7 modes
Trip Tables for 5 Time Periods and 4 Purposes (HBW by 4 income groups
4-County Region
Forecast Analysis
Zones
Traffic Analysis
Zones
Trip Assignment
Model
Highway and Transit
Volumes and Travel Times
TruckModel
Land Use and Travel Demand Forecasting Process Trip Purposes (10):
Home-Based• Work (4)
• Other
• Shopping
• School (K – 12)
• College (Households & Dormitories)
Non Home-Based• Work/Other
• Other/Other
Home-Based Work
Income Stratification within:
• Trip Generation
• Trip Distribution
Approach/Structure/Processes
Results
Observations
Final Thoughts
Today’s Focus
Trip Purpose Breakdown
Trip Purpose Productions/Attractions Percent Total
Home-Based WorkIncome less than $25,000 146,924 1%Income $25,000-$45,000 345,518 3%Income $45,000-$75,000 640,106 5%Income more than $75,000 851,933 7%
Home-Based Work - Total 1,984,481 16%College 98,030 1%Home-Based School 883,724 7%Home-Based Shop 1,427,492 11%Home-Based Other 4,418,377 35%Non-Home-Based Work 1,129,434 9%Non-Home-Based Other 2,774,412 22%
Total Person Trips 12,715,950 100%
Built-In Structure not being used – Easily Implemented
Capture Trip-Making Differences among the Different Income Groups
Achieve a Better Match between Household and Job Locations
Position Model for Evaluation/Analysis of Tolling/Pricing Policies
Rationale – Income Stratification
Less than $10,000
$10,000 – $14,999
$15,000 – $24,999
$25,000 – $34,999
$35,000 – $44,999
$45,000 – $54,999
$55,000 – $74,999
$75,000 or More
1999 HH Travel SurveyHH Income Categorization
Stand Alone
Stand Alone
Combine
Combine
Combine
Combine
Income Class Stratification:• Less than $15,000 HH Income
• $15,000 – $24,999 HH Income
• $25,000 - $44,999 HH Income
• $45,000 - $74,999 HH Income
• $75,000 or more HH Income
Categorization from 1999 HH Travel Survey
Sum Productions in Bottom Ranges before Distribution
• Single Range – Less than $24,999 HH Income
Home-Based WorkTrip Production Rates
Less than $16,000 HH Income
$16,000 – $26,599 HH Income
$26,600 – $47,899 HH Income
$47,900 – $79,799 HH Income
$79,800 or more HH Income
$CDN$
2000 Median HH Income:
• King – $53,000
• Kitsap – $47,000
• Pierce – $45,000
• Snohomish – $53,000
Regional HH Income Distribution:
• Less than $24,999 = 20.6% of Households
• More than $75,000 = 29.2% of Households
HH Income Data – 2000 Census
Home-Based WorkTrip Production Rates
65 Unique Classifications
HH Size/Workers in HH/HH Income Range
Home-Based WorkTrip Attraction Rates
Expedient/Straightforward
Based on Analysis of 2000 Census Data
HH Incomes of Workers by Industry
Quick Recap
Calculate HB Work Productions for 5 Income Classes
Sum Lowest 2 Classes (Less than $25,000)
Calculate HB Work Attractions for 4 Income Classes
Distribute HB Work Trips for 4 Income Classes
• Gravity
• Composite Impedances (log sums)
District-District ComparisonIncome Class 1 (Obs. – Est.)
District 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Total1 14% 4% 4% -1% -4% -7% -1% -2% -1% -3% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -5% 0%2 7% 28% 4% -4% -11% -11% -1% -4% -2% -3% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%3 4% 1% 0% 12% 3% -10% -1% -3% -1% -4% -3% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0%4 0% -1% 0% -6% -6% 6% 10% -7% -3% 0% -1% 10% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%5 0% 5% 0% 13% 3% 5% 0% -13% -4% -5% -2% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 0% 0% 0% 5% 8% 0% 0% -10% -4% -1% 5% 1% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%7 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 50% -23% -7% -15% -2% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 65% -72% -22% -1% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -3% -9% 6% 6% 0% -1% -1% -1% 4% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% -5% -1% -2% -2% 2% -12% 9% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% -12% -7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 5% 0% -15% -3% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% -1% -3% 15% -1% -18% 0% 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -4% -15% 16% 27% -8% -30% 13% 2% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%15 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -3% 15% -1% 7% -3% 14% 1% -30% -7% 8% 0% 0% 0%16 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -7% -21% 0% 0% -1% 5% -2% 15% -10% 13% 9% 0% 0%17 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 8% 0% 7% 0% -1% 6% -6% -6% -21% 12% 0% 0%18 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -2% -11% 0% 4% 0% -1% 8% 11% -3% 16% -20% 0% 0%19 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% -17% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 0%
District-District ComparisonIncome Class 2 (Obs. – Est.)
District 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Total1 11% -3% 6% -1% -1% -4% 0% -1% 3% -2% -2% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -3% 0%2 2% 14% 3% -9% -7% 4% -1% -2% -1% -2% 2% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%3 4% 0% 8% -7% 0% 0% -1% -2% -1% -3% 0% -1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%4 -1% -3% 3% 18% -11% -11% 5% -3% -1% 0% -2% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%5 0% 0% 0% -1% 11% -11% 2% -7% 2% 1% 5% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 0% 1% 0% -1% 3% -6% -1% -3% 3% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%7 0% 4% 0% -1% 3% -3% -2% -6% -7% -1% 8% -3% 1% 0% 4% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%8 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 1% -4% 7% -14% -5% 0% 13% -2% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -2% -8% 1% -2% 3% 2% 0% 0% -2% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0%
10 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -4% -1% -6% 1% 3% 1% 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% -1% -21% -10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% 6% 7% -13% -7% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -4% -3% 5% 1% -5% 1% -1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0%14 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% -2% -1% 3% -5% 0% -3% -4% -1% 6% -2% 6% -1% 0% 0% 0%15 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -2% -5% -1% 3% -4% -6% 0% 9% -6% 15% -1% 0% 0%16 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -3% 2% -2% 0% 11% -7% 4% -8% -13% 3% 15% 0% 0%17 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 6% 0% 3% 4% -2% -2% 4% -1% -16% -2% 0% 0%18 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -4% -2% 0% 1% 1% 1% -1% 0% -3% 3% 6% 0% 0%19 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% -18% -1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 13% 0%
District-District ComparisonIncome Class 3 (Obs. – Est.)
District 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Total1 0% -5% 7% 4% -1% -2% 0% -1% 0% 2% 3% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -6% 0%2 -1% 4% 2% 1% -3% -2% -1% 0% 0% 1% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%3 -2% 7% 9% -5% -4% -1% -1% 0% -1% -3% 2% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0%4 -1% -5% -1% 7% 4% -5% -1% -2% -1% 1% 7% -1% -1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%5 0% 0% 0% 2% 8% -7% -2% -2% 0% 0% 3% -1% -1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 0% 1% 1% -1% 7% -1% 0% -3% -4% -5% 1% 4% -4% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%7 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -2% 15% -2% -9% -5% 9% -5% -3% 0% -1% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0%8 0% 0% 0% 1% -1% 3% 0% -4% -5% 1% 6% -1% 2% 0% -1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%9 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 3% -2% -1% -3% 2% 3% 1% -4% -1% -2% 0% 4% -1% 0% 0%
10 2% 2% 2% -1% 2% 2% -1% -3% -2% 7% -10% 1% -2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% -1% 0%11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% -1% -53% 38% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0%12 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 6% 2% -1% -6% -10% 6% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% -1% 0%13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% -3% -7% -1% 1% 0% 3% 1% 1% 0% -1% 0%14 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% -1% -4% 0% -3% 5% -1% -3% 4% 1% -3% 5% 1% 0% 0%15 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% -3% 0% 0% 2% 1% -7% -2% 0% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0%16 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% -1% -2% -5% -9% -3% 0% -2% 0% -1% 1% 6% 19% -3% 0% 0%17 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% -3% -2% 3% 1% -2% 0% -2% 3% 4% -7% 1% 0% 0%18 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% -1% -1% 2% -1% 0% -1% 0% 0% 9% -4% 0% 0%19 1% 0% -1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -13% -2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 13% 0%
District-District ComparisonIncome Class 4 (Obs. – Est.)
District 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Total1 3% 0% 4% 3% -2% 2% 0% 0% 0% -1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% -11% 0%2 -9% 6% 0% 4% -3% -1% 0% 0% 5% 0% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% -1% 0%3 -8% -8% 18% -9% 2% 0% 0% -1% 0% 1% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%4 -5% -3% 3% 7% 0% -12% -1% 5% -1% 0% 8% -2% -1% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% -1% 0%5 0% -5% -4% -1% 3% 4% 0% 2% 4% -1% 0% -2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 -1% -1% -2% -1% 1% 3% -2% 6% 4% 1% -5% -4% 3% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%7 1% -1% -1% -1% -5% -4% 13% 3% 7% -6% 0% -5% -4% 0% 2% -1% 3% 0% 0% 0%8 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% -5% 4% 14% -5% -5% -2% 0% -2% 0% -1% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0%9 0% 0% 0% 0% -2% -2% -3% 0% 11% -2% 9% -3% -3% -1% -3% 1% 0% -1% 0% 0%
10 -1% -1% -1% 1% 0% -9% -1% 1% 6% 6% 11% -6% -3% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% -2% 0%11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0% 14% 0% -2% -5% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -3% 0%12 0% 0% 1% 0% -1% -1% -1% 1% 8% -2% -7% -5% 5% 2% -1% 2% 0% 0% -1% 0%13 0% 0% 2% 0% -1% -2% 0% 2% -1% -5% 12% -3% -7% 0% 0% 1% 4% 0% -1% 0%14 0% 0% 0% 1% -1% -4% -1% -3% -2% -1% 15% 1% 5% 0% -7% -1% -1% -1% 0% 0%15 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% -3% -1% -3% -6% -2% 6% 5% -3% -1% 7% -1% 1% 0% 0% 0%16 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% -1% 3% -9% -2% 4% 0% 5% -3% -9% 0% 11% -1% 0% 0%17 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -2% 0% 1% -3% 5% -1% 1% -1% -2% -4% -5% 15% -3% 0% 0%18 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -1% -4% 0% -1% -1% -3% -2% -1% -1% 3% 9% 4% 0% 0%19 -3% 0% -2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 6% 9% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -13% 0%
District-District ComparisonAll Income Classes (Obs. – Est.)
District 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Total1 6% -2% 5% 2% -1% -1% 0% -1% 1% -1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -7% 0%2 -3% 8% 2% 0% -4% -1% -1% -1% 1% -1% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0%3 -1% 0% 10% -4% 0% -2% -1% -1% 0% -2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%4 -2% -4% 0% 9% -2% -7% 1% -1% -1% 1% 4% 0% -1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%5 0% -2% -1% 1% 7% -2% 0% -2% 2% -1% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6 0% 0% -1% 0% 4% -1% -1% -1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%7 1% 0% -1% -1% -3% -2% 11% 0% 1% -5% 3% -5% -3% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%8 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% -2% 3% 6% -6% -3% 1% 1% 0% 0% -1% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0%9 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% 6% 0% 6% -1% -3% -1% -2% 1% 2% -1% 0% 0%
10 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% -5% -1% -2% 1% 7% -1% 2% -1% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0%11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 13% 2% -26% 9% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0%12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 5% 0% -9% -6% 6% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% -1% 0%13 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -2% 3% -3% -3% 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% -1% 0%14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -3% -1% -2% -3% -1% 9% -1% 0% 3% -3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%15 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0% -3% -2% -1% 4% 1% -3% -1% 3% -2% 5% 1% 0% 0%16 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% -1% -1% -8% -2% 2% 0% 2% -1% -4% 0% 13% 1% 0% 0%17 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 2% 0% -1% -1% 0% -1% -3% 0% 0% 0%18 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -3% -1% -1% 1% -1% -1% -1% 0% 0% 8% 1% 0% 0%19 0% 0% -1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% -6% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0%
Results: District-District Validation
Most Trips, Regardless of Income Class are Intra-District
Some Discrepancies (both Intra- and Inter-District) Exist and Should be Further Investigated
Overall (All Income Classes) District-District Comparison Appears Acceptable
Trip Rate Differences Less Evident on Attraction Side
• Government – Highest Low Income, Lowest High Income
• Manufacturing – Lowest Low Income, Highest High Income
• Retail – Percent of High Income HHs is Surprising
Observations
HB Work Trip Production Rates Increase as HH Income Increases
Trip Rate Differences Less Evident on Attraction Side• Government – Highest Low Income, Lowest High Income
• Manufacturing – Lowest Low Income, Highest High Income
• Retail – Percent of High Income HHs is Surprising
Average Trip Lengths Increase as HH Income Increases
Valid Distribution Model
Observations
Zone Size
• Smaller Zones Would Allow for Easier Isolation of Higher/Lower Income Neighborhoods
• Or Does Zone Size Matter?
More Refined Income Brackets
• $75,000+ Probably Too Low for the Highest Income Range− $75,000 – $100,000 = 13.4% (2000 Census)− More than $100,000 = 15.8% (2000 Census)
• 2006 HH Survey – Category with $100,000+
Why the Trip Production Rate Differences? Would Tours Show Same Differences?
Will these Production Rates Stay Constant Over Time – 2040? Will these Income Profiles by Industry Stay Constant Over Time – 2040?
Occupation vs. Industry Data – Occupation-based Data May Be More Reflective of Income
• (I.e., Management vs. Sales vs. Service vs. Retail)
More Geographic Analysis
Thinking Out Loud…
Merci!Questions?
Chris JohnsonPuget Sound Regional Council1011 Western Avenue, Suite 500Seattle, WA 98104tel 206 389 2876fax 206 587 [email protected]