Income Doubling

SOFA

• US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement• Exempts US military personnel from visa and

passport regulations – flight from arrest• US will not hand over suspects for interrogation

until formally charged – issue with Japanese interrogation procedures

• Crimes while on “official duty” handled by US, others by Japanese – what is “official duty?”

• Definition of who is “military” is vague, open to dispute

High Growth Period高度成長時代

• Overall economic growth 1950-1973– Roughly 10% per year in real terms– Driven by plant and equipment investment (no

t consumer driven)– Mild inflation– Cyclical pattern of boom, then slack, then boo

m• Iwato boom• Izanami boom

External Environment

• “Pax Americana”

• Cold War

• Korean War boom

• Vietnam War boom

• Fixed exchange rate - 360 yen to dollar

• Trade heavily with US – around 30%

Trade Structure (exports)

• 1950s textiles– Only 5% in 1975– Very significant politically– Basis for Nixon shocks

• Gradual to heavy industrial products– Steel– Ships– Machinery

Trade Structure (imports)

• Raw materials dominant– European countries imported more finished

products– Japan imported primarily raw materials for

domestic consumption or processed an exported

Income Doubling Plan所得倍増計画

• Ikeda Hayato 池田隼人• Cabinet approved in 1960.• Primarily heavy industry

– Automobiles– Tires– Petrochemicals– Machinery

• Domestic rather than export• Industrial more than consumer• Consumer demand from increa

sed employment and wages

Trade Friction US-Japan

• Issues by era– 1950s “dollar blouses”– 1970s “textile wrangles”– Dumping allegations

• Steel• Color televisions• Motorcylcles

• Non-issues– Autos – comes later– Optical goods (cameras) – little US production– Transistor radios, tape recorders – little US production

Trade Friction

• Japan, Inc. 日本株式会社– US – Government-Industry in confrontation– Japan – Government and industry cooperate– Japan does not “play fair” (by American rules)

Nixon Shocks

• 1971.7.15 visits China without giving Japan advance notice

• 1971.8.15 ends dollar to gold convertability• 10% import surcharge• Yen goes from 360 to 320 to dollar, later much lo

wer• Votes from US textile producing states

– Thought he had been “screwed” by Japanese– Antipathy toward Japan

Environmental Destruction

Petrochemical complexes 石油コンビナート

No pollution controls

Yokkaichi asthma

Environmental Destruction

• Minamata disease 水俣病

• Untreated organic mercury waste dumped into Minamata Bay by Chisso Chemical

• First noted 1958• Term now used to describ

e other similar instances of mercury poisoning in China, Brazil, etc.

Environmental Destruction

• Minamata disease– First symptoms noted in 1940s– Causality established in 1958– Court suits from 1967 after demands for comp

ensation fail– Supreme court decision 2004 holds governme

nt liable– Ongoing disputes over compensation, recogni

tion through 2010

Mass Consumerism

• 50s-70s– Home telephones– Dining sets

• Indicative of “westernization” of life style

– Washing machines– Refrigerators– Vacuum cleaners– Televisions (B&W 1958+, color 1968+)– Passenger cars

• More as status symbol than transportation• “Paper drivers”

High Savings Rate

• Rise from 5.2% in 1955 to 14.5% in 1975• Consumer purchases other than housing

usually cash– Specialized department stores that sold on

credit– Cash price and credit price on items

• Criticized by US– Save too much, don’t buy (American)

consumer goods

Foreign Travel

• Tourism limited– Expensive relative to Japanese incomes– Unfavorable exchange rate (360 to dollar)– Foreign exchange controls

• Group tours led by guide with flag• Corporate types

– Males without familes– Changes in 70s, gives rise to “returnee issue”

( 帰国子女 )

Dual Economy

• Large firms– High wages– Seniority wages 年功序列– Job security 終身雇用 lifetime employment– Heavily unionized 企業別労働組合– Low labor mobility

• Small firms– Low wages– Hourly or output based wages– Little or no security– Low rate of unionization– High labor mobility

Rural -> Urban Migration

• Increase in rural population in Occupation period• Economic growth draws rural youth to urban

jobs• “Group placement” 団体就職

– Special trains bring middle-school graduates to urban factory jobs

• Job market strong, expanding– High school graduates to low or mid level

management– Colleges graduates to mid or high level management

Gendered Employment

• Women not expected to remain in work force

• Hiring of women highly sensitive to economic conditions

• Hired for clerical and precision assembly jobs in watch, camera, radio, television, etc. manufacturing

• Few women to college and then primarily junior colleges 短期大学

That’s All Folks!

• Slides and readings– www2.gol.com/users/ehk/keio/postwar– ehk.servebeer.com/keio/postwar

• Office Hours– None at Keio but can be arranged before and after sc

heduled class time

• Email– ehk@gol.com (no attachments)– ehkuso@gmail.com (no restrictions)– Put “keio postwar” your name your student number in

the subject line.