Inconvenient Truths and Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Uncertain Futures

Summary of HC 434: Physics and Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate ChangePolitics of Global Climate Change

Our basic ExpectationOur basic Expectation

Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2

Ice Core data

Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the relation between temperature and CO2

But time resolution is insufficient to truly show if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature change

Hockey Stick Problems

Role of urbanization may not be adequately account for

Average temperature of the Earth may not be a physically meaningful quantity.

Reliability of multi-century record is questionable

Two D representation is most convincing

MethaneMethane

Potential role of methane is larger than Potential role of methane is larger than CO2CO2

GWP = 21GWP = 21 Scales with population growthScales with population growth Released from permafrostReleased from permafrost Released from hydrate depositsReleased from hydrate deposits Emissions now rising again due to global Emissions now rising again due to global

wetlands returning from prolonged wetlands returning from prolonged droughtdrought

Competition among anthropogenic Competition among anthropogenic forcesforces

Feedbacks are huge uncertaintyFeedbacks are huge uncertainty

Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Ocean sink now less than beforeOcean sink now less than before

Ocean PH RisingOcean PH Rising

Oceans no longer scale with Oceans no longer scale with increasing emissionsincreasing emissions

Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios

Really, Three ChoicesReally, Three Choices

BAU because we can’t learn or don’t BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently know how to do anything differently react to disasters as they come react to disasters as they come

A1T: Alternative energy technology A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in timeand fuels will come in time

B1: We do what Cronon suggests B1: We do what Cronon suggests understand that wilderness is understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordinglyeverywhere and behave accordingly

Carbon TradingCarbon Trading

Emission space is fixed Emission space is fixed bid or bid or contract on emissionscontract on emissions

Effective trading requires many Effective trading requires many sources of generationsources of generation

What process determines size of What process determines size of emission space?emission space?

What is the penalty for exceeding What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap?your emissions cap?

Carbon MarketCarbon Market

In principle is very large, but how In principle is very large, but how oversees it, accounts for it, verifies oversees it, accounts for it, verifies it?it? Note that the CDM is

supposed to encourage China to switch from Coal to Natural Gas to lower its share of the carbon market. This is not happening to date

Carbon, Capture and Carbon, Capture and StorageStorage

Without a real market, what’s the Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS?incentive for CCS?

CCS technologies are not mature and CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested.need to be tested.

Porosity of sequestration needs to be Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep tested: only sure reserve is deep oceanocean

CCS the most politically sensible CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stablizationpathway to stablization

Stabilization and WedgesStabilization and Wedges

1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per yearyear

This is a global effortThis is a global effort Again, real carbon market could help Again, real carbon market could help

provide various incentivesprovide various incentives And remember, global carbon And remember, global carbon

emissions are now increasing emissions are now increasing annuallyannually

Gaining a WedgeGaining a Wedge

• Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg

• or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000

• Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25%

• Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials

IPCC ScenariosIPCC Scenarios

Once again, three real choicesOnce again, three real choices Remain Market DrivenRemain Market Driven Hope that technological leaps occurHope that technological leaps occur Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness

that is needed to reduce personal consumption.that is needed to reduce personal consumption. Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)3.53.5

Increasing global inequity should no longer be Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?

Your generation is inheriting the legacy of greedYour generation is inheriting the legacy of greed

Resource DepletionResource Depletion

Global resource use took a sudden Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000uptick starting around 2000

The world is currently in the most The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history !unsustainable epoch in history !

We Are At Peak Oil!!We Are At Peak Oil!!

Global Carbon Intensity is Global Carbon Intensity is IncreasingIncreasing

Sustainability, My AssSustainability, My Ass

Markets need an ethical dimensionMarkets need an ethical dimension

Waveform of FuckednessWaveform of Fuckedness

Raisins for EveryoneRaisins for Everyone

Along with MalariaAlong with Malaria

And we Policy Wank our way alongAnd we Policy Wank our way along

""The United States is committed to The United States is committed to reducingreducing the the greenhouse gas intensity of the American greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012.from 2002 to 2012. “ “

Whoops

Which box do we want to be in?Which box do we want to be in?

What to Do?What to Do?

Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurtSubversive videos on You Tube don’t hurt

Drive less; Period. Period. Period.Drive less; Period. Period. Period.

Act according to Cronon’s imperative: Act according to Cronon’s imperative: Wilderness is EverywhereWilderness is Everywhere

Properly factor in avoidance costs in Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic modeling of climate changeeconomic modeling of climate change

20 Million College Students Have inherited this world

Your Choice Matrix: Give up or Not: