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Professor Sean Smith Director of the Institute for Sustainable Construction Professor of Construction Innovation School of Engineering & the Built Environment Edinburgh Napier University E: [email protected] www.napier.ac.uk/isc
Increasing role of Offsite & Advanced Construction in the UK economy
OVERVIEW
• Advances in offsite construction • Types of building needs over next 20 years in Scotland &
the UK
• Future Innovation Support
Advanced Construction: Offsite Sector
Offsite Sector in the UK
UK Offsite Construction Sector (contribution) was valued approx £1.25 billion (2012) Forecast by third parties to increase to £6 billion based on 7% of £90 billion sector Scottish Offsite Sector was valued at £154 million (2012) based on manufacturing base alone Expected by Scottish offsite companies to grow to £260 million (2018)
Advanced Construction - Offsite Sector
Market Drivers: • Population increases • Demographic changes • Existing skills shortages • Current and future competition from other sectors • Building Performance • Technology advancements • Quality, control, logistics • B-2-B • Market shift in infrastructure investment • Regulations, Directives and Standards
Offsite Approaches
Scotframe Enewall Dynamic insulation Cube (prev. Powerwall) CCG Val-U-Therm K2 & E-Core STMS
UK – Offsite Closed Panel - examples
UK Population to increase to 74 million by 2037
= 9.5 million increase
4 million homes (2.37/home) But current ratio already 2.1
= 4,523,810 (homes)
= 226,200 (homes per year)
+ (1.8 million households) 90,000 (homes per year)
=
316,200 per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
1 person in household
2 people in household
3 people in household
4 people in household
5 or more people inhousehold
UK – Retirement Residential Care
• UK needs over 15,500 new Care Homes to be built over next 20 years • Over 780 per year • Preferably built in gap sites within local communities www.theconversation.com www.theconversation.com/why-the-uk-is-heading-for-a-care-home-catastrophe-in-the-next-20-years-50142
EU Directives and Key
Changes on horizon
• Reaching “Boundary limits” on fabric • Timber systems out performs masonry/block • Target of 0.11 U-value seen by some as the “final” target • Design (Not Equal) to Performance • “Performance gap” – industry needs time to address
UK – Regulations / Standards - Energy
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14 June 2011 www.napier.ac.uk/isc
Future factors
EU – future Resource Efficiency Directive (R.E.D) will be a driver for change (benefits for timber sector: material resource, sustainability, offsite, deconstruction, re-use) Pressures on other sectors (reduction in PFA supply for aircrete, commonly used in external walls – companies looking for other options such as timber cladding etc..) CITB – Timber cladding project – training of new British Standard written by Dr Ivor Davies (ENU) CLT – Scotland could lead UK in this field – one of key systems architects wish to specify
Specification changes
Drive forward advantages of
timber construction
Growth in rural jobs and economic
impact
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14 June 2011 www.napier.ac.uk/isc
Innovation Support
CSIC – several projects underway including: • Advanced timber cladding • New party wall systems Future projects • New offsite systems • Manufacturing investment Innovation Pathway Retain links with CSIC as the channel for this work or Establish special focus group within CSIC or separate Hub and Spoke structure (similar to Textiles)
One final thought……..
“The coming decade will be one of the most exciting for the forestry and timber sectors in construction…. Structure of Innovation support to the sector will be critical to encapsulating and supporting the delivery of the full economic benefits…. Increasing planting of new forests is critical if we are to deliver the positive legacy for our future generations to have the low carbon built environment that we all aspire to achieve”
Prof Sean Smith
Professor Sean Smith Director of the Institute for Sustainable Construction Professor of Construction Innovation School of Engineering & the Built Environment Edinburgh Napier University E: [email protected] www.napier.ac.uk/isc
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