INDEX [impa.br]...Pedro C. Ferreira Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Paul J. Gertler University of California, Berkeley Maitreesh Ghatak London School of Economics Delfim Gomes-Neto

INDEX

Welcome to Rio. .....................................................................................................................3

Synthetic Program ..................................................................................................................5

Sponsors - LACEA.................................................................................................................6

Sponsors - LAMES.................................................................................................................7

Chairs......................................................................................................................................8

LACEA Program Committee .................................................................................................9

LAMES Scientific Committee..............................................................................................11

Local Committee ..................................................................................................................12

General Information .............................................................................................................13

COMPLETE PROGRAM ....................................................................................................16

THURSDAY 20 November 2008…………………………………………………….. 16

FRIDAY 21 November 2008 ………………………………………………………… 43

SATURDAY 22 November 2008 ……………………………………………………. 65

SUNDAY 23 November 2008……………………………………………………....... 93

Index of Presenters .............................................................................................................106

3

Welcome to Rio!

After the successfull Mexico City and Bogotá Meetings, this year we’ll have also ajointed LACEA and LAMES that will continue to be realized at the same location witha unified registration.

We are happy to invite you to the Opening Ceremony to take place on November 20, at8:15 a.m. in IMPA. We also invite all participants and accompanying people for thecocktail at 8:00 pm, in the main hall of IMPA in the same day.

As soon as you arrive, we ask you please to confirm your registration (check in) at theentrance hall and take the material of the meeting.

The conference is providing buses to transport participants from some chosen hotels toIMPA and back every conference’s days (November, 20-23). Please see the timetable inthis program.

CONFERENCE DINNER:

The conference dinner will take place on November 21st (Friday) at 8:30 pm, in MAM -Museum of Modern Art - which is located in a beautiful site with panoramic view of theGuanabara Bay. We made special efforts in choosing the food that should have theBrazilian taste. Also there will be “chorinho” which is the Brazilian form of jazz, andsome other Brazilian music. Everybody registered in the conference is welcome.

We want to thank all who have donated time and energy resource for this Congress. Wealso want to thank the members of the Program Committee and the Local OrganizerJosé Heleno Faro. We especially want to thank the co-chairs of LAMES HumbertoMoreira e Sergio Firpo and the co-chair of LACEA Luis Braido.

Thank you too to Marcia Waleria of FGV and Suely Lima and Pedro Faro of IMPAwho did magnificent secretarial job.

Thank you for coming! We are very happy to have you here!

Aloísio Araujo, chair of LACEA-LAMES 2008.

5

Synthetic Program

Thursday 20 November Friday 21 November Saturday 22 November Sunday 23 November

08:00 - 08:15 Registration

08:15 - 08:30

08:30 - 08:45

08:45 - 09:30

Open Ceremony

09:30 - 09:45

Sponsored andContributed Sessions

09:45 - 10:00 Coffee Break

Contributed Sessions

10:00 - 10:15 Coffee Break

10:15 - 10:30

Invited Lectures


10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break Coffee Break

10:45 - 11:00

Invited Lectures

11:00 - 11:30

11:30 - 11:45


11:45 - 12:00

12:00 - 12:15


Invited and SponsoredLectures

12:15 - 12:30

Invited Lectures andSessions

12:30 - 12:45

12:45 - 13:00

Lunch

13:00 - 13:15

LunchLunch

Closing Panel

13:15 - 13:45

13:45 - 14:00

14:00 - 14:30


14:30 - 14:45



14:45 - 16:00


16:00 - 16:15


Invited and SponsoredLectures Coffee Break

16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break Coffee Break

16:30 - 17:15Invited Lectures

17:15 - 17:30Keynote Lecture

17:30 - 18:00


18:00 - 18:30Invited Lectures

18:30 - 18:45


18:45 - 19:00

19:00 - 19:30

Plenary Session andPresidential Address

19:30 - 19:45

19:45 - 20:00

Plenary and InvitedSessions

Keynote Lecture

20:00 - 20:30* Cocktail Conference Dinner*

8

Chairs

Aloísio AraujoChair of LACEA/LAMES, FGV/EPGE and IMPA

Humberto MoreiraCo-Chair of LAMES, FGV/EPGE

Luis BraidoCo-Chair of LACEA, FGV/EPGE

Sergio FirpoCo-Chair of LAMES, FGV/EESP

José Heleno FaroLocal Chairman, IMPA

9

LACEA Program Committee

NAME AFFILIATION

Aloisio Araujo Chair, FGV/EPGE and IMPALuis Braido Co-Chair, FGV/EPGEMônica Viegas Andrade Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisJuliano J. Assunção Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioOrazio Attanasio University College LondonRicardo R.G. Avelino Universidade de São PauloRicardo Paes de Barros IPEA, RioFrancisco Buera Northwestern UniversityCarlos Vianna de Carvalho Federal Reserve Bank, New YorkTiago Cavalcanti University of CambridgeRodrigo Cerda Pontifica Universidad Católica de ChilePierre-André Chiappori Columbia UniversityCarlos E. da Costa Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEPierre Dubois Université ToulouseEduardo Engel Yale UniversityFlávia L. Chein Feres Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisDaniel Ferreira London School of EconomicsClaudio Ferraz IPEA, RioFrancisco Ferreira World BankPedro C. Ferreira Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEPaul J. Gertler University of California, BerkeleyMaitreesh Ghatak London School of EconomicsDelfim Gomes-Neto Universidade de VigoGustavo Gonzaga Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioMartin Grandes Center for Financial Stability and American University of ParisBernardo Guimaraes London School of EconomicsGraciela Kaminsky George Washington UniversitySandra V. Lizarazo ITAM, MéxicoEduardo A. Lora Inter-American Development BankDean Lueck University of Arizona

Nora C. LustigInter-American Development Bankand George Washington University

Gabriel A. Madeira Universidade de São Paulo

Naercio A. Menezes-FilhoIBMEC Business School, São Pauloand Universidade de São Paulo

Marcelo C. Neri Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/IBREEmanuel Ornellas London School of EconomicsLeonardo Rezende Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioMauro Rodrigues Jr Universidade de São PauloAndrés Rodriguez-Clare Pennsylvania State UniversityJosé L. Rossi Jr IBMEC Business School, São PauloEsteban Rossi-Hansberg Princeton University

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Jaime Saavedra World BankPablo J. Sanguinetti CAF and Universidad Torcuato Di TellaRodrigo R. Soares Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioAndré Portela Souza Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPArilton Teixeira FUCAPE, VitoriaAndré Urani Instituto de Estudos do Trabalho e SociedadeFernando A. Veloso IBMEC Business School, RioThierry A. Verdier Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques

11

LAMES Scientific Committee

NAME AFFILIATION

Aloisio Araujo Chair, FGV/EPGE and IMPAHumberto Moreira Co-Chair, FGV/EPGESergio Firpo Co-Chair, FGV/EESPElvio Accinelli Universidad Autônoma de San Luis PotosiCaio de Almeida Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEHeitor Almeida University of IllinoisPaulo Barelli University of RochesterAlexandre Belloni Duke UniversityMauricio Bugarin IBMEC Business School, São PauloBernardo Blum University of TorontoEugenio Bobenrieth Universidad de ConcepciónMarco Bonomo Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEVinicius Carrasco Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioAndres Carvajal University of WarwickRicardo Cavalcanti Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGELuciano Costa University oif IllinoisPaulo Coutinho Universidade de BrasíliaFrancisco Cribari-Neto Universidade Federal de PernambucoFlavio Cunha University of PennsylvaniaJuan Dubra Universidad de MontevideoEmilio Espino Universidad Torcuato di TellaEduardo Faingold Yale UniversityJosé Fajardo IBMEC Business School, RioMarcelo Fernandes Queen Mary University of LondonRaquel Fernandez New York UniversityArmando Gomes Washington UniversityKlaus Schmidt Hebbel Banco Central do ChileHugo Hopenhayn University of California, Los AngelesMaria Carolina da Silva Leme Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPLuiz Renato Lima Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEIgnacio Lobato ITAM, MéxicoHedibert Freitas Lopes University of ChicagoWilfredo Maldonado Universidade Católica de BrasíliaGustavo Manso Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyAlberto Martin Universitat Pompeu FabraCesar Martinelli ITAM, MéxicoJuan-Pablo Torres-Martinez Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioV.Filipe Martins-da-Rocha Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEEnlinson Henrique Carvalho deMattos

Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP

Marcelo Medeiros Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioPaulo Klinger Monteiro Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE

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Juan Pablo Montero Pontifica Universidad Católica de ChilePablo Andrés Neumeyer Universidad Torcuato Di TellaJuan Pablo Nicolini Universidad Torcuato Di TellaWalter Novaes Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioSergio Parreiras University of North CarolinaAureo de Paula University of PennsylvaniaRodrigo Souza Peñaloza Universidade de BrasíliaPedro Luiz Valls Pereira Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPHeleno Pioner University of ChicagoVladimir Pinheiro Ponczek Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPÁlvaro Riascos Universidad de los AndesJorge Rivera Universidad de ChileErnesto Schargrodsky Universidad Torcuato Di TellaJosé Alexandre Scheinkman Princeton UniversityAndré Portela Souza EESP/FGVVladimir Kuhl Teles Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPMaria Cristina Terra Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEMarcos Tsuchida Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPCarlos Urrutia ITAM, México

Local Committee

NAMEAFFILIATION

José Heleno Faro (Chairman) IMPASergei Vieira IMPARodrigo Novinski IMPASusan Schommer IMPA

13

General Information

14

Location of IMPA

IMPA is located near the Botanical Garden in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.The address is:Estrada Dona Castorina, 110.Rio de Janeiro, RJ – Brasil.CEP: 22460-320

However, many cab drivers may need the following instructions which we reproduce inPortuguese:

HORTO, Por Favor: Vou para o IMPA na Estrada Dona Castorina, 110.NO FINAL da Rua PACHECO LEÃO à DIREITA DEPOIS do PONTOFINAL da LINHA DE ONIBUS 409.

Public Transportation:

How to get to IMPA:

The easiest and most cost effective (time wise) way to get to IMPA is by cab asdescribed above. However, if you prefer to use public transportation see the nextparagraph.

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• From Copacabana:

You can use the bus line 125 (Jardim Botânico) from Avenida Princesa Isabel or RuaBarata Ribeiro and get off at the final stop. You should then walk uphill to EstradaDona Castorina; IMPA is on the right hand side.

Since the 125 bus is somewhat infrequent, it is usually faster to follow a different route.Take the 572 or 584 bus and get off on Rua Jardim Botânico at the stop near ABBR andthe “Pão de Açúcar” supermarket. Then, walk to Rua Lopes Quintas (which crosses RuaJardim Botânico), go to the bus stop near the newsstand, take a 409 or 125 bus and getoff at the final stop. From then on, follow the instructions at the end of the previousparagraph.

• From Ipanema and Leblon

You can use the bus line 125 (to Jardim Botânico) from Rua Prudente de Moraes(Ipanema), Avenida General San Martin (Leblon), or Avenida Bartolomeu Mitre(Leblon) and get off at the final stop. You should then walk uphill to Estrada DonaCastorina; IMPA is on the right hand side.Since the 125 bus is somewhat infrequent, it is usually faster to follow a different route.Take the 572, 512 or 584 bus and get off on Rua Jardim Botânico at the stop nearABBR and the “Pão de Açúcar” supermarket. Then, walk to Rua Lopes Quintas (whichcrosses Rua Jardim Botânico), go to the bus stop near the newsstand, take a 409 or 125bus and get off at the final stop. From then on, follow the instructions at the end of theprevious paragraph.

• From Flamengo, Botafogo and Humaitá

You can use the bus line 409 (Sans Pena – Horto) from Praia do Flamengo (FlamengoBeach), Praia de Botafogo (Botafogo Beach) or Rua Humaitá, and get off at the finalstop. Then walk uphill to Estrada Dona Castorina; IMPA is on the right hand side.

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COMPLETE PROGRAM

THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008

DAY OVERVIEW

08:00 - 08:15 Registration08:15 - 09:30 Opening Ceremony09:30 - 10:30 Invited Lectures10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break10:45 - 12:15 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions12:15 - 13:15 Lunch13:15 - 14:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions14:45 - 16:15 Invited Lectures and Sessions16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break16:30 - 18:00 Sponsored Sessions and Contributed Sessions18:00 - 19:00 LACEA Plenary Sessions18:00 - 19:30 LAMES Invited Sessions19:00 - 20:00 LACEA Plenary Session20:00 Cocktail

08:00 - 08:15 REGISTRATION

08:15 - 09:30 OPENING CEREMONY

08:15 - 09:30 OPENING CEREMONY (LACEA-LAMES)Chairperson: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA

Room Auditorium 2

SPEAKERCarlos Ivan Simonsen Leal, President, Fundação Getúlio Vargas

SPEAKER

Joaquim Levy, Treasury Secretary of Rio de Janeiro

SPEAKERTorsten Persson, Institute for International Economic Studies

SPEAKER

Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution and LACEA

SPEAKERCésar Camacho, Director, IMPA

SPEAKER

José Sérgio Gabrielli, President, PETROBRAS

SPEAKERLuciano Coutinho, President, BNDES

09:30 - 10:30 INVITED LECTURESLACEA

17

09:30 - 10:30 ALBERT HIRSCHMAN LECTURE (LACEA)Chairperson: Gobind Nankani, President ofthe Global Development Network

Room Auditorium 2

UNDERSTANDING SUSTAINED HIGH GROWTH AND INCLUSIVEDEVELOPMENT: ADAPTING TO NEW CHALLENGES IN THEGLOBAL ECONOMYMichael Spence, Stanford University

09:30 - 10:30 INVITED LECTURESLAMES

09:30 - 10:30 ROLF MANTEL LECTURE (LAMES)Chairperson: Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal,President, Fundação Getúlio Vargas

Room Auditorium 1

GAME THEORY IN PRINCETONHarold Kuhn, Princeton University

09:30 - 10:30 SPECIAL LECTURE (LAMES)Chairperson: TBA

Room Auditorium 3

LEADERSHIPEdward Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers andProfessor of Economics, Stanford GSB

10:30 - 10:45 COFFEE BREAK

10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLACEA

10:45 - 12:15 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION:DO WHAT WE EXPORT MATTERS FORGROWTH? (LACEA)Chairperson: Daniel Lederman, World BankResearch Group

Room Auditorium 1

TECHNOLOGY DIFFERENCES AND FACTOR PROPORTIONSDaniel Lederman, World Bank Research Group

HUMAN CAPITAL, PRODUCT QUALITY, AND BILATERAL TRADE

Michael Waugh, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank

THE POWER OF EXPORTSAriell Reshef, University of Virginia

10:45 - 12:15 NEW TRENDS IN FINANCIALREGULATION - SPONSORED BY BBM(LACEA)Chairperson: Alexandre Tombini, Director ofNorms - Brazilian Central Bank

This Session is Sponsored by BBM

Room Auditorium 2


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RATING THE RATERS: ARE REPUTATION CONCERNSPOWERFUL ENOUGH TO DISCIPLINE RATING AGENCIES?Jean-Charles Rochet, Toulouse School of EconomicsCo-Authors: Jérôme Mathis, Toulouse School of Economics and JamesMcAndrews, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

THE PROCYCLICAL EFFECTS OF BASEL II

Rafael Repullo, CEMFI

TBAEdward Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers andProfessor of Economics, Stanford GSB

10:45 - 12:15 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: SOCIALPROGRAMS, POVERTY ANDPRODUCTIVITY (LACEA)Chairperson: Cesar Bouillon, Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank

This Session is sponsored by the IDB

Room Auditorium 3

THE IMPACT OF CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER PROGRAMS ONLABOR SUPPLYMaria Laura Alzua, CEDLAS - Universidad Nacional de La Plata,Guillermo Cruces, Universidad de la Plata, Argentina and Laura Ripani,Inter-American Development Bank

SOCIAL PROGRAMS, LABOR MARKETS AND POVERTY

REDUCTION IN BRAZILRicardo Paes de Barros, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada(IPEA)

EFFECTS OF OPORTUNIDADES ON EMPLOYMENT, WAGES,

MIGRATION AND OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY IN RURAL MEXICOEduardo Oreggia, Instituto de Investigaciones sobre DesarrolloSustentable y Equidad Social

10:45 - 12:15 TAXATION (LACEA)Chairperson: Elod Takats, IMF

Room 201

RAMSEY TAXATION WITH ENDOGENOUS DEFAULT UNDERINCOMPLETE MARKETSDemian Pouzo, New York University

OPTIMAL BUSINESS INCOME TAX ENFORCEMENT AND THE

INFORMAL SECTOREduardo Zilberman, New York UniversityCo-Author: Saki Bigio, New York University

RESIDUAL AND TECHNICAL TAX EFFICIENCY SCORES FOR

BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES: A TWO-STAGE APPROACHMaria Da Conceição Sampaio De Sousa, Universidade de BrasíliaCo-Authors: Pedro Lucas Araújo Pereira, and Maria Eduarda Tannuri-Pianto, Universidade de Brasília

TAX RATE CUTS AND TAX COMPLIANCE - THE LAFFER CURVE

REVISITEDElod Takats, IMFCo-Author: Tamas Papp, Princeton University


19

10:45 - 12:15 MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCE(LACEA)Chairperson: Felipe Schwartzman, PrincetonUniversity

Room 206

INFORMATION ASYMMETRY AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORMANDATE: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. MUTUAL FUND FOREIGNHOLDINGSTatiana Didier, World Bank

MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AND THE CO-MOVEMENT OF STOCK

RETURNS IN LATIN AMERICAEurilton Araújo, Ibmec São Paulo

BUSINESS GROUPS AND PYRAMIDAL OWNERSHIP IN

ECUADORIAN BUSINESSMaria Granda, Texas A&M University, Escuela Superior Politecnica delLitoral

EXTERNAL FINANCE, INTERNAL FINANCE AND WAGES

Felipe Schwartzman, Princeton University

10:45 - 12:15 BIS SPONSORED SESSION: MONETARYAND FINANCIAL STABILITYIMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL FLOWS INLATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN(LACEA)Chairperson: Camilo Tovar, Bank forInternational Settlements

This Session is Sponsored by the BIS

Room 224

ASSESSING THE EMERGING GLOBAL FINANCIALARCHITECTURE: MEASURING THE TRILEMMA'SCONFIGURATION OVER TIMEJoshua Aizenmann, Professor UC Santa CruzCo-Authors: Menzie D. Chinn, University of Wisconsin & the NBER andHiro Ito, Portland State University

IMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN BRAZIL

Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo, Head of Research - Central Bankof Brazil and Rafael Chaves Santos, Policy Advisor - Central Bank ofBrazil

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEANCamilo Tovar, Bank for International SettlementsCo-Author: Alejandro Jara, Bank for International Settlements

TBA

Kevin Cowan, Head of Financial Policy at the Central Bank of Chile

10:45 - 12:15 ECONOMETRIC THEORY ANDAPPLICATIONS (LACEA)Chairperson: J. Ernesto Lopez Cordova,Inter-American Development Bank

Room 232

DYNAMIC PANEL PROBIT MODELS FOR CURRENT ACCOUNTREVERSALS AND THEIR EFFICIENT ESTIMATIONGuilherme Valle Moura, University of Kiel, GermanyCo-Authors: Roman Lisenfeld, University of Kiel and Jean-FrancoisRichard, University of Pittsburgh


20

TESTING FOR A DETERMINISTIC TREND WHEN THERE ISEVIDENCE OF UNIT-ROOTDaniel Ventosa-Santaularia, Universidad de GuanajuatoCo-Author: Manuel Gómez, Universidad de Guanajuato

AN ASSESSMENT OF ANOTHER DECADE OF CAPITAL

CONTROLS IN COLOMBIA: 1998-2008Arturo Galindo, Inter-American Development Bank

THE INCIDENCE OF GRAFT ON DEVELOPING-COUNTRY FIRMS

J. Ernesto Lopez Cordova, Inter-American Development BankCo-Authors: Alvaro Gonzalez, World Bank and Elio Valladares,

10:45 - 12:15 INTERNATIONAL TRADE I (LACEA)Chairperson: Emanuel Ornelas, LondonSchool of Economics

Room 236

TRADE FLOWS, FINANCIAL LINKAGE, AND BUSINESS CYCLES INLATIN AMERICAMagda Kandil, International Monetary Fund

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND INDUSTRY DYNAMICS: A

DIFFERENCE IN DIFFERENCE APPROACHRoberto Alvarez, Central Bank of Chile and Intelis, University of ChileCo-Author: Ricardo López,

BILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, EXPORTS AND

TECHNOLOGY UPGRADING EVIDENCE FROM THE IMPACT OFMERCOSUR ON ARGENTINEAN FIRMSPaula Bustos, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Crei

PROTECTION AND INTERNATIONAL SOURCING

Emanuel Ornelas, London School of EconomicsCo-Author: John Turner, University of Georgia

10:45 - 12:15 MARKET STRUCTURE AND SOCIETY(LACEA)Chairperson: Ana Cusolito, The World Bank

Room 329

PATENT BREADTH IN AN INTERNATIONAL SETTINGBen Zissimos, Vanderbilt UniversityCo-Author: Eric Bond, Vanderbilt University

INFORMATION SHARING AND INNOVATION IN AN INDUSTRIAL

CLUSTER OF NOVA FRIBRUGO, BRAZILIsleide Zissimos, UFRJ / Vanderbilt University

DO VOLUNTARY POLLUTION REDUCTION PROGRAMS HELP

REDUCE POLLUTION LEVELS? EVIDENCE FROM THE MEXICANCLEAN INDUSTRY PROGRAM.Emilio Gutierrez Fernandez, Brown UniversityCo-Author: Andrew Foster, Brown University

COMPETITION, IMITATION, AND DIRECTED TECHNICAL CHANGE:

QUALITY VS. VARIETYAna Cusolito, The World Bank


21

10:45 - 12:15 SOCIAL PROGRAMS (LACEA)Chairperson: Jeremie Gignoux, The WorldBank

Room 331

LOOKING WITHIN THE HOUSEHOLD: IMPACTS FOR INDIVIDUALOUTCOMES USING AGGREGATE HOUSEHOLD DATAVincenzo Di Maro, University College London

POVERTY AND TIME PREFERENCES

Leandro Carvalho, Princeton University

LOCAL ELECTORAL REWARDS FROM CENTRALIZED SOCIALPROGRAMS: THE CASE OF PROGRESA-OPORTUNIDADES INMEXICOLourdes Rodriguez-Chamussy, University of California, Berkeley

EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF SCHOOLING CASH TRANSFERS

WITH SPILLOVERS ACROSS VILLAGES: EVIDENCE FROMPROGRESAJeremie Gignoux, The World Bank

10:45 - 12:15 LABOR ECONOMICS I (LACEA)Chairperson: David Kaplan, World Bank

Room 335

DECOMPOSING THE GENDER WAGE GAP WITH SAMPLESELECTION CORRECTION: EVIDENCE FROM COLOMBIAXimena Pena, Universidad de Los AndesCo-Author: Alejandro Badel, Georgetown University

THE PLACE PREMIUM: WAGE DIFFERENCES FOR IDENTICAL

WORKERS ACROSS THE U.S. BORDERMichael Clemens, Center for Global Development

WAGE STRUCTURE AND SEGMENTATION OF LABOR MARKET IN

COLOMBIA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SEVEN MAIN CITIES, 2001-2005Diana Carolina Mesa Téllez, Universidad del RosarioCo-Authors: Andres Felipe Garcia, Universidad del Rosario and MonicaRoa, National Planning Department

JOB CREATION AND LABOR REFORM IN LATIN AMERICA

David Kaplan, World Bank

10:45 - 12:15 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (LACEA)Chairperson: Matteo Grazzi, UN EconomicCommission for Latin America and theCaribbean (ECLAC-CEPAL)

Room 349

THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN LATINAMERICAN DEVELOPMENTCarlos Gustavo Machicado Salas, Institute for Advanced DevelopmentStudiesCo-Authors: Felix Rioja, Georgia State University and Antonio Saravia,American University of Sharjah

ENDOGENOUS PRODUCTIVITY AND MULTIPLE STEADY STATES

Riccardo DiCecio, FRB of St. LouisCo-Author: Levon Barseghyan, Cornell University


22

REMOVING THE CONSTRAINTS FOR GROWTH: SOMEGUIDELINESRodrigo Fuentes, Pontificia Universidad Católica de ChileCo-Author: Cesar Calderon, The World Bank

WHAT DRIVES ICT DIFFUSION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?

EVIDENCE FROM PARAGUAYMatteo Grazzi, UN Economic Commission for Latin America and theCaribbean (ECLAC-CEPAL)Co-Author: Sebastián Vergara, UN Economic Commission for LatinaAmerica and the Caribbean (ECLAC - CEPAL)

10:45 - 12:15 MACROECONOMICS (LACEA)Chairperson: Rubens Penha Cysne,Fundação Getulio Vargas

Room 401

BUDGET DEFICITS AND INTEREST RATES: A FRESHPERSPECTIVEAri Aisen, Banco Central de ChileCo-Author: David Hauner, Bank of America

UNIQUE MONETARY EQUILIBRIA WITH INTEREST RATE RULES

Pedro Teles, Banco de Portugal, Univ Catolica, CEPRCo-Authors: Bernardino Adao, Banco de Portugal and Isabel Correia,Banco de Portugal, Univ. Catolica, CEPR

TAX REFORM: THEORY AND PROPOSALS TO BRAZIL

Thiago Pereira, EPGE / FGV

ON THE ERROR ARISING FROM IGNORING INTEREST-BEARINGMONIES IN THE CALCULATION OF THE WELFARE COSTS OFINFLATIONRubens Penha Cysne, Fundação Getulio VargasCo-Author: David Turchick, Fundação Getulio Vargas

10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics

10:45 - 12:15 PROGRAM EVALUATION I (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Cesar Martinelli, ITAM

Room 345

"DO I REALLY NEED TO GO TO REHAB? I'D SAY NO, NO, NO."ESTIMATING PRICE ELASTICITIES OF CONVALESCENT CAREPROGRAMSNicolas Ziebarth, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW)

SOCIAL POLICY INDEX :A MODEL BASED APPROACH

Juan Manuel Tellez, University of GenevaCo-Author: Jaya Krishnakumar, Department of Econometrics, Universityof Geneva

DO GOVERNMENTAL INCOME TRANSFER PROGRAMS HAVE

IMPACT ON POVERTY IN BRAZIL?Fabricio Linhares, CAEN/UFCCo-Authors: Campelo Guaracyane, CAEN/UFC and Emerson Marinho,CAEN/UFC

INFORMATION AND PARTICIPATION IN A SOCIAL PROGRAM

Cesar Martinelli, ITAMCo-Authors: David Coady, IMF and Susan Parker, CIDE


23

10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics

10:45 - 12:15 POLITICAL ECONOMY (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Jorge M. Streb, Universidad delCema

Room 130

INFORMATION TRANSMISSION AND INEFFICIENT LOBBYINGRafael Costa Lima, FGV/EPGECo-Author: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE

COMPARATIVE POLITICS WITH ENDOGENOUS INTRA-PARTY

DISCIPLINEBenoit Crutzen, Erasmus University RotterdamCo-Author: Micael Castanheira, ECARES, Free University of Brussels,FNRS and CEPR

TWO-BALLOT VERSUS PLURALITY RULE: AN EMPIRICAL

INVESTIGATION ON THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATESMauro Rodrigues, University of Sao Paulo, BrazilCo-Authors: Carlos Eduardo Goncalves, University of Sao Paulo, Braziland Ricardo Madeira, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil

DIVIDED GOVERNMENT AND POLITICAL BUDGET CYCLES

Jorge M. Streb, Universidad del CemaCo-Author: Gustavo F. Torrens, Washington University in Saint Louis

10:45 - 12:15 EMERGING MARKET BUSINESS CYCLES(LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Christian Daude, OECDDevelopment Centre

Room 132

ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING MARKETECONOMIESMarcelo Silva, The University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill

COUNTRY SPREADS AS CREDIT CONSTRAINTS IN EMERGING

ECONOMY BUSINESS CYCLESSarquis Sarquis, IRBr (Brazil), FMG/LSE (UK)

ON THE SOURCES OF AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS IN

EMERGING ECONOMIESAndres Fernandez, Rutgers UniversityCo-Author: Roberto Chang, Rutgers University

EMERGING MARKET BUSINESS CYCLES REVISITED: LEARNING

ABOUT THE TRENDChristian Daude, OECD Development CentreCo-Authors: Emine Boz, International Monetary Fund and Bora Durdu,Federal Reserve Board

10:45 - 12:15 CORPORATE FINANCE (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Lucía Quesada, UniversidadTorcuato Di Tella

Room 228

INTEREST RATES IN TRADE CREDIT MARKETSKlenio Barbosa, Toulouse School of EconomicsCo-Authors: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE and Walter Novaes,PUC-Rio

EXIT OPTIONS AND DIVIDEND POLICY UNDER LIQUIDITY

CONSTRAINTSMarko Terviö, UC Berkeley


24

Co-Author: Pauli Murto, Helsinki School of Economics

THE DELEGATED PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PROBLEM:REPUTATION AND HERDINGFelix Villatoro, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile

FINANCIAL CONTRACTING WITH AN INFORMED INVESTOR

Lucía Quesada, Universidad Torcuato Di TellaCo-Author: Eloïc Peyrache, HEC School of Management

10:45 - 12:15 VOTING (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Felix Vardy, Office of the ChiefEconomist LCR, World Bank

Room 333

COSTLY INFORMATION ACQUISITION.PART I: BETTER TO TOSSA COIN?Matteo Maria Triossi Verondini, CEA, Departamento de IngenieriaIndustrial, Universidad de Chile.

REDISTRIBUTION IN A MODEL OF VOTING AND CAMPAIGN

CONTRIBUTIONSFilipe Campante, Harvard University

NEGATIVE VOTE BUYING AND THE SECRET BALLOT

Felix Vardy, Office of the Chief Economist LCR, World Bank

10:45 - 12:15 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS (LAMESTAE)Chairperson: Laixun Zhao, Kobe University

Room 347

BUSINESS TRAVEL AS AN INPUT TO INTERNATIONAL TRADEJennifer Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz

TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN ENVIRONMENTALLY PREFERABLE

PRODUCTSEstelle Gozlan, INRACo-Author: Maria Priscila RAMOS, AgroParisTech and CEPII

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION TEAMS AND TRADE WITH

SORTING AND MATCHINGJose Tessada, University of Maryland

IMMIGRATION CONFLICTS

Laixun Zhao, Kobe UniversityCo-Author: Junko Doi, Kansai University

12:15 - 13:15 LUNCH


13:15 - 14:45 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION:MEASURING INEQUALITY OFOPPORTUNITY IN LATIN AMERICA(LACEA)Chairperson: Jaime Saavedra, World BankDiscussants: Luis Felipe López-Calva,Regional Bureau of Latin America and theCaribbean, UNDP and Andre Urani, IETS

Room Auditorium 1


25

PANELIST 1Ricardo Paes de Barros, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada(IPEA)

PANELIST 2

Marcelo Giugale, World Bank

13:15 - 14:45 IMF SPONSORED SESSION: 2008REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK -WESTERN HEMISPHERE (LACEA)Chairperson: Robert K. Rennhack, IMF

Room Auditorium 2

GRAPPLING WITH THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISISAna Corbacho, IMFDiscussant(s): Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA

ELEVATED FOOD PRICES AND VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS:

FISCAL POLICY OPTIONSAna Corbacho, IMF

CORPORATE VULNERABILITY: HAVE FIRMS REDUCED THEIR

EXPOSURE TO CURRENCY RISKHerman Kamil, International Monetary FundDiscussant(s): Kevin Cowan, Head of Financial Policy at the CentralBank of Chile

13:15 - 14:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION - BONDMARKETS IN LATIN AMERICA (LACEA)Chairpersons: Eduardo Borensztein,International Monetary Fund and UgoPanizza, Unctad

This Session is Sponsored by IDB

Room Auditorium 3

CORPORATE BOND MARKETS IN ARGENTINAJorge M. Streb, Universidad del Cema

DEVELOPMENT OF THE BRAZILIAN BOND MARKET

Ricardo P. C. Leal, Coppead/UFRJ

DEVELOPMENT OF THE CHILEAN CORPORATE BOND MARKETMatias Braun, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez & IM Trust

DEVELOPMENT OF COLOMBIAN BOND MARKETS

Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA and MarcelaMeléndez, Inter-American Development Bank

DEVELOPMENT OF THE MEXICAN BOND MARKET

Sara G. Castellanos, Bank of Mexico

THE FIXED-INCOME MARKET IN URUGUAYNestor Gandelman, Universidad ORT Uruguay

13:15 - 14:45 POVERTY (LACEA)Chairperson: Carlos Gradín, Universidade deVigo

Room 201

IDENTIFYING VICTIMS FROM CIVIL CONFLICTS: AN EVALUATIONOF FORCED DISPLACED HOUSEHOLDS IN COLOMBIAƒXAna Ibáñez, Universidad de los AndesCo-Author: Andrea Velásquez, Duke University


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DO CHANGES IN THE LABOUR MARKET TAKE FAMILIES OUT OFPOVERTY: DETERMINANTS OF EXITING POVERTY IN BRAZILIANMETROPOLITAN REGIONSAna Flávia Machado, CEDEPLAR/UFMGCo-Author: Rafael Perez Ribas, International Poverty Centre andUniversity of Illinois

A POVERTY TRAP MODEL WITH HUMAN CAPITAL AND THE

QUALITY OF EDUCATIONMaria Emma Santos, Oxford Poverty and Human DevelopmentInitiative, University of Oxford and CONICET-Universidad Nacional delSur

POVERTY AMONG MINORITIES IN THE UNITED STATES:

EXPLAINING THE RACIAL POVERTY GAP FOR BLACKS ANDLATINOSCarlos Gradín, Universidade de Vigo

13:15 - 14:45 LABOR ECONOMICS: GENDER BIAS(LACEA)Chairperson: Lucia Madrigal, InteramericanDevelopment Bank

Room 206

GENDER SEGREGATION IN THE WORKPLACE AND WAGE GAPS:EVIDENCE FROM URBAN MEXICO 1994-2004Sebastian Calonico, University of MichiganCo-Author: Hugo Nopo, Inter-American Development Bank

THE ROLE OF GENDER INEQUALITIES IN EXPLAINING INCOME

GROWTH, POVERTY AND INEQUALITY: EVIDENCES FROM LATINAMERICAN COUNTRIESJoana Costa, International Poverty CentreCo-Authors: Elydia Silva, International Poverty Centre and Fabio Vaz,UnB

MAIDS’ SERVICES AS A SUBSTITUTE FACTOR IN HOME-

PRODUCTION.Ana Claudia P Fava, UIUCCo-Author: Mary Arends-Kuenning, UIUC

PART-TIME WORK, GENDER AND JOB SATISFACTION: EVIDENCE

FROM A DEVELOPING COUNTRYLucia Madrigal, Interamerican Development BankCo-Authors: Florencia Lopez Boo, IDB/University of Oxford and CarmenPages, Inter-American Development Bank

13:15 - 14:45 GOVERNMENT DEBT (LACEA)Chairperson: Claudio Raddatz, World Bank

Room 232

IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND INSTITUTIONALFACTORS ON THE STRUCTURE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT IN THEEMERGING MARKET COUNTRIESAnastasia Guscina, The George Washington University, and the IMF

THE DOMESTIC COSTS OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT: CAN

AGGRESSIVE DEBT POLICIES AFFECT PRIVATE SECTORACCESS TO CREDIT?Christoph Trebesch, Free University of Berlin

TOUGH POLICIES, INCREDIBLE POLICIES?

Alejandro Neut, OECD Development CentreCo-Author: Andres Velasco, Harvard University


27

MULTILATERAL DEBT RELIEF THROUGH THE EYES OFFINANCIAL MARKETSClaudio Raddatz, World Bank

13:15 - 14:45 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION I (LACEA)Chairperson: E. Glen Weyl, HarvardUniversity and Toulouse School ofEconomics

Room 236

FIRM ENTRY AND LABOR MARKET DYNAMICSPedro Silos, Federal Reserve Bank AtlantaCo-Author: Enchuan Shao, Bank of Canada

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WAL-MART COMES TO YOUR COUNTRY?

MULTINATIONAL FIRMS' ENTRY, PRODUCTIVITY ANDINEFFICIENCYSilvio Contessi, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PASS-THROUGH AS AN ECONOMIC TOOL

E. Glen Weyl, Harvard University and Toulouse School of Economics

13:15 - 14:45 POLITICAL ECONOMY AND INCENTIVES(LACEA)Chairperson: Claudio Ferraz, PUC-Rio

Room 331

LIMITING PRESIDENTIAL DECREE POWER: THE EFFECT OF THECONSTITUTIONAL REFORM 32/2001 IN BRAZIL OVER POLICYOUTCOMES.Mónica Pachon , Universidad de los Andes

SHOULD VOTERS BE AFRAID OF HARD-BUDGET CONSTRAINT

LEGISLATION? FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY LAW IN BRAZILIANMUNICIPALITIESCarlos Pereira, Michigan State UniversityCo-Author: Paulo Arvate, FGV and Michigan State University

POLITICAL PRICE CYCLES IN REGULATED INDUSTRIES: THEORY

AND EVIDENCERodrigo Moita, Ibmec Sao PauloCo-Author: Claudio Paiva, International Monetary Fund

MOTIVATING POLITICIANS: THE IMPACTS OF MONETARY

INCENTIVES ON QUALITY AND PERFORMANCEClaudio Ferraz, PUC-RioCo-Author: Frederico Finan, UCLA

13:15 - 14:45 FINANCE: TERM STRUCTURE (LACEA)Chairperson: Samer Shousha, BBM Bank

Room 335

GIVING FLEXIBILITY TO THE NELSON-SIEGEL CLASS OF TERMSTRUCTURE MODELSRafael Rezende, Center for Development and Regional Planning

TESTING THE LONG-RUN IMPLICATIONS OF THE EXPECTATION

HYPOTHESIS USING COINTEGRATION TECHNIQUES WITHSTRUCTURAL CHANGEPedro Valls Pereira, EESP-FGVCo-Authors: Omar M. F. Abbara, IMECC-UNICAMP and EmersonMarçal, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie and UNICAMP

MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF

INTEREST RATES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE BRAZILIANCASESamer Shousha, BBM Bank


28

13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT AND INEQUALITY(LACEA)Chairperson: Guenther Rehme, HumboldtUniversität zu Berlin

Room 349

HETEROGENEITY IN MACRO MINCER RETURNS: EVIDENCEFROM PANEL DATAMarcelo Soto, Instituto de Analisis Economico

EDUCATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF EARNINGS INEQUALITY IN

BRAZILPriscilla Albuquerque Tavares, Education Office of São Paulo andMackenzie UniversityCo-Author: Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP

ENTREPRENEURSHIP, CAPITAL GAINS, AND SOCIAL MOBILITY

Gabriel Arturo Basaluzzo, Universidad de San Andres

ENDOGENOUS (RE-)DISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES AND ECONOMICGROWTH: A COMPARATIVE STATIC ANALYSISGuenther Rehme, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin

13:15 - 14:45 LABOR ECONOMICS II (LACEA)Chairperson: Jennifer Poole, University ofCalifornia, Santa Cruz

Room 401

TESTING WHETHER LEARNING THE MATCH QUALITY MATTERSFOR EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICSCarlos Henrique Corseuil, IPEA

UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION IN MEXICO: ITS DETERMINANTS

AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATIONCONTROVERSY AND PUBLIC POLICY DESIGNAngel Calderón-Madrid, El Colegio de Mexico

UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY IN LABOR MARKETS OF

DEVELOPING COUNTRIESMaria Elisa Farias, Universidad de Chile

MULTINATIONAL SPILLOVERS THROUGH WORKER TURNOVER

Jennifer Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz


13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Luigi Ventura, Sapienza,University of Rome

Room 130

BUSINESS OWNERSHIP AND SELF-EMPLOYMENT INDEVELOPING ECONOMIES: THE COLOMBIAN CASEXimena Pena, Universidad de Los AndesCo-Author: Camilo Mondragón-Vélez, IFC

HOUSING DEMAND IN MEXICO

Fidel Gonzalez, Sam Houston State University


29

PRICE AND INCOME EFFECT ON THE QUALITY OF BRAZILIANFOOD DIET AND HEALTH: AN ANALYSIS OF NUTRIENTS'DEMANDPaula Carvalho Pereda, USPCo-Author: Denisard Alves, Universidade de São Paulo

RISK SHARING: A LONG RUN ISSUE?

Luigi Ventura, Sapienza, University of Rome

13:15 - 14:45 PARTIAL AND WEAK IDENTIFICATION(LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Alfonso Flores-Lagunes,University of Florida

Room 329

EXOGENEITY TESTS AND WEAK IDENTIFICATION: FINITE-SAMPLE AND ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS THEORYFirmin Doko Tchatoka, University of MontrealCo-Author: Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill university,

MEASURING PRECISION OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE ON

PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED PARAMETERSAleksey Tetenov, Collegio Carlo Alberto

BOUNDS FOR QUANTILES OF TREATMENT EFFECTS

Jinhyun Lee, UCL

NONPARAMETRIC PARTIAL AND POINT IDENTIFICATION OF NETOR DIRECT CAUSAL EFFECTSAlfonso Flores-Lagunes, University of FloridaCo-Author: Carlos Flores, University of Miami


13:15 - 14:45 EDUCATION (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Lars Ehlers, U de Montreal

Room 132

COLLEGE ENROLLMENT, DROPOUTS AND OPTION VALUE OFEDUCATIONNicholas Trachter, University of ChicagoCo-Author: Ali Ozdagli, University of Chicago

DOES THE POSSIBILITY OF OPTING OUT OF PUBLIC EDUCATION

FAVOR EXPENDITURE ON BASIC EDUCATION?Gabriel Romero, University of Alicante

PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN HIGHER EDUCATION: COMPARING

ALTERNATIVE FUNDING SCHEMESBernhard Eckwert, Bielefeld University

CONTROLLED SCHOOL CHOICE

Lars Ehlers, U de MontrealCo-Author: Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Duke University

13:15 - 14:45 PUBLIC ECONOMICS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Wilfredo Maldonado, GraduateSchool in Economics - Catholic University ofBrasília

Room 224


30

FUTURE RENT-SEEKING AND CURRENT PUBLIC SAVINGSPierre Yared, Columbia UniversityCo-Author: Ricardo J. Caballero, MIT

ANALYZING THE CASE FOR A BALANCED BUDGET AMENDMENT

TO THE U.S. CONSTITUTIONMarco Battaglini, Princeton UniversityCo-Authors: marina azzimonti, univ of texas and steve coate,

WHO’S AFRAID OF POPULATION AGING?

Alexander Ueberfeldt, Bank of CanadaCo-Author: Danny Leung, Bank of Canada

FINANCIAL CAPITAL IN A CGE MODEL FOR BRAZIL:

FORMULATION AND IMPLICATIONSWilfredo Maldonado, Graduate School in Economics - CatholicUniversity of BrasíliaCo-Authors: Octávio Tourinho, BNDES and Marcos Valli, Banco Centraldo Brasil

13:15 - 14:45 FINANCIAL ECONOMICS I (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Juan Pablo Nicolini,Universidad Di Tella

Room 228

INFORMATION PERCOLATION WITH EQUILIBRIUM SEARCHDYNAMICSGustavo Manso, MITCo-Authors: Darrell Duffie, Stanford University and Semyon Malamud,ETH Zurich

TAYLOR SERIES APPROXIMATIONS TO EXPECTED UTILITY AND

OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO CHOICELorenzo Garlappi, The University of Texas at AustinCo-Author: Georgios Skoulakis, University of Maryland

PORTFOLIO CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAIN LIFETIME

Antoine Bommier, Toulouse School of Economics

STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AND LEARNINGJuan Pablo Nicolini, Universidad Di Tella

13:15 - 14:45 MONETARY POLICY AND REACTIONFUNCTIONS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Sandra Lizarazo, InstitutoAutonomo de Mexico

Room 333

MODELING AN OPTIMAL PRICE LEVEL TARGET MONETARYPOLICYMirta Bugarin, FUCAPE Business SchoolCo-Author: Gil Riella, Banco Central do Brasil

DO CENTRAL BANKS RESPOND TO EXCHANGE RATE

MOVEMENTS? SOME NEW EVIDENCE FROM STRUCTURALESTIMATIONWei Dong, Bank of Canada


31

FISCAL POLICY, PHILLIPS CURVE AND NONLINEARITIES INMONETARY POLICY: THEORIES AND EVIDENCE FOR THEDOMINICAN REPUBLICRaul Hernandez Baez, CIEF Consulting, Rutgers University, PontificiaUniversidad Católica Madre y Maestra y Universidad Católica de SantoDomingo.Co-Author: Juan Pimentel Aristy, CIEF Consulting

MONEY, CREDIT AND DEFAULT

Sandra Lizarazo, Instituto Autonomo de MexicoCo-Author: Jose Maria Da-Rocha, Research Group in EconomicAnalysis - Universidade de Vigo

13:15 - 14:45 NETWORKS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Maria Gomez-Rua,Universidade de Vigo

Room 345

SOCIAL LEARNING WITH A HIDDEN ACTIONHelios Herrera, Columbia UniversityCo-Authors: Johannes Horner, Yale and Johannes Horner,

DYNAMIC SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: IDENTIFICATION AND

CHARACTERIZATIONOnur Ozgur, University of MontrealCo-Author: Alberto Bisin, New York University

IDENTITY AND FRAGMENTATION IN NETWORK

Pritha Dev, ITAM

NO ADVANTAGEOUS MERGING IN MINIMUM COST SPANNINGTREE PROBLEMS.Maria Gomez-Rua, Universidade de VigoCo-Author: Juan J. Vidal-Puga, Universidade de Vigo

13:15 - 14:45 AUCTIONS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Eiichiro Kazumori, University ofTokyo

Room 347

CHARITY AUCTIONS FOR THE HAPPY FEWOlivier Bos, Paris School of Economics and CORE

EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY AUCTIONS

Alejandro Jofré, Universidad de ChileCo-Author: Juan Escobar, Stanford University

LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED COMPETING AUCTIONS

Ian King, University of MelbourneCo-Authors: Richard Dutu, University of Waikato and Benoit Julien,University of New South Wales

INFORMATION AGGREGATION IN UNIFORM PRICE DOUBLE

AUCTIONSEiichiro Kazumori, University of Tokyo

14:45 - 16:15 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONSLACEA

14:45 - 16:15 MACROECONOMICS (LACEA)Chairperson: Juan Pablo Nicolini,Universidad Di Tella

Room Auditorium 2


32

TBAFernando Alvarez, University of Chicago

A MULTIPLIER APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING THE MACRO

IMPLICATIONS OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCEHarold L. Cole, University of California, Los AngelesCo-Authors: YiLi Chien, Purdue University and Hanno Lustig, UCLAand NBER

14:45 - 16:15 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS (LACEA)Chairperson: Armando Castelar, UFRJ andGávea Investimentos

Room Auditorium 3

NUDGING FARMERS TO USER FERTILIZER: EVIDENCE FROMKENYAMichel Kremer, Harvard UniversityCo-Authors: Esther Duflo, MIT and Jonathan Robinson, University ofCalifornia, Santa Cruz

EMPOWERING WOMEN: HOW OPORTUNIDADES IMPROVED

BIRTH OUTCOMESPaul Gertler, University of California, Berkeley

14:45 - 16:15 POLITICAL ECONOMY I (LACEA)Chairperson: TBA

Room 224

THE THEORY OF POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INSTITUTIONS ANDREFORMSFrançois Bourguignon, Paris School of EconomicsCo-Author: Thierry Verdier, Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques

LAND POWER: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHILE

Jean Marie Baland, FUNDP

14:45 - 16:15 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONSLAMES

14:45 - 16:15 LABOR ECONOMICS (LAMES)Chairperson: Gustavo Gonzaga, PUC-RIO

Room Auditorium 1

WAGE RISK AND EMPLOYMENT RISK OVER THE LIFE CYCLECostas Meghir, University College LondonCo-Authors: Hamish Low, University of Cambridge and IFS and LuigiPistaferri, Stanford University, SIEPR and CEPR

ASSESSING THE EQUALIZING FORCE OF MOBILITY USING

SHORT PANELS: FRANCE, 1990-2000Jean-Marc Robin, Paris School of EconomicsCo-Author: Stéphane Bonhomme, CEMFI

14:45 - 16:15 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (LAMES)Chairperson: V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha,Graduate School of Economics, GetulioVargas Foundation

Room 228

VERIFYING COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA IN DYNAMIC ECONOMIESFelix Kubler, University of Zurich

COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA IN SEMI-ALGEBRAIC ECONOMIES

Karl Schmedders, Northwestern UniversityCo-Author: Felix Kubler, University of Zurich


33

14:45 - 16:15 HEALTH ECONOMICS ANDECONOMETRICS (LAMES)Chairperson: André Souza, FGV

Room 232

MODELING RISK USING FOURTH ORDER PSEUDO MAXIMUMLIKELIHOOD METHODSAlberto Holly, Université de Lausanne

MONITORING PRIORIZATION IN A PUBLIC HEALTH CARE

SECTORJan Erik Askildsen, University of BergenCo-Authors: Tor Helge Holmås, University of Bergen and OddvarKaarbøe, University of Bergen



16:30 - 18:00 CAF PANEL ON DECENTRALIZATIONAND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT (LACEA)Chairperson: Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT

This Session is sponsored by CAF

Room Auditorium 1

LOCAL GOVERNMENTS CAPACITY AND PERFORMANCE:EVIDENCE FROM PERUVIAN MUNICIPALITIESFernando Aragon, London School of Economics

DECENTRALIZATION AND ACCESS TO SOCIAL SERVICES IN

COLOMBIAJean-Paul Faguet, London School of Economics

COORDINATING TO LIMIT POLLUTION SPILLOVERS UNDER

DECENTRALIZED MANAGEMENT OF WATER IN BRAZILMushfiq Mobarak, Yale University

16:30 - 18:00 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION:CLIMATE CHANGE IN LATIN AMERICA:IMPACTS AND POLICY RESPONSES(LACEA)Chairperson: Justin Lin, Chief Economist forthe World Bank

This Session is Sponsored by the WorldBank

Room Auditorium 2

EQUITY AND EFFICIENCY IN THE GREENHOUSE: RESPONDINGTO CLIMATE CHANGE IN LATIN AMERICAPablo Fajnzylber, World BankCo-Author: John D. Nash, World Bank

CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND

POVERTYJuliano Assunção, Departamento de Economia PUC-RioCo-Author: Flávia Chein, CEDEPLAR/FACE/UFMG


34

A TAX–BASED APPROACH TO SLOWING GLOBAL CLIMATECHANGEEduardo Ley, The World BankCo-Authors: Joseph E. Aldy, Resources for the Future and Ian Parry,Resources for the Future

ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BRAZILIAN

AGRICULTUREEustaquio Reis, IPEACo-Authors: José Gustavo Feres, IPEA and Juliana Speranza, IPEA

16:30 - 18:00 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: STRESSINGTHE ANCHOR: COMMODITY PRICESHOCKS, EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, AND INFLATION TARGETING(LACEA)Chairperson: Luis Catao, Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank


Room Auditorium 3

MUNDELL-FLEMING REVISITED: THE ROLE OF TRADEOPENNESSMichael Kumhof, IMFCo-Authors: Guillermo Calvo, Columbia University and Ondra Kamenik,Czech National Bank and IMF

FOOD PRICE SHOCKS AND OPTIMAL INFLATION TARGETING

Luis Catao, Inter-American Development BankDiscussant(s): Ilan Goldfajn, Founding Partner, Ciano Investments, andProfessor, PUC-RJCo-Author: Roberto Chang, Rutgers University

INFLATION TARGETING UNDER IMPERFECT POLICY

CREDIBILITYAli Alichi, IMFDiscussant(s): Alessandro Rebucci, Inter-American Development BankCo-Authors: Marianne Johnson, Bank of Canada and Douglas Laxton,IMF

16:30 - 18:00 POVERTY AND WELFARE I (LACEA)Chairperson: Emmanuel Skoufias, The WorldBank (MC4-415)

Room 201

DO CHANGES IN INCOME AFFECT MORTALITY? THE CASE OFMEXICOFidel Gonzalez, Sam Houston State UniversityCo-Author: Troy Quast, Sam Houston State University

REPEAT CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN

BRAZILJose Raimundo Carvalho, CAEN/UFCCo-Author: Sylvia Lavor, CAEN/UFC

INTRA-HOUSEHOLD REDISTRIBUTION AND HEALTH

PERCEPTIONSSamanta Sacramento dos Reis Monte, Center for Social Policies/IBRE /Fundação Getulio VargasCo-Authors: Luísa Carvalhaes, Center for Social Policies/IBRE -Fundação Getulio Vargas and Marcelo Cortes Neri, Fundação GetúlioVargas


35

THE SOURCES OF WELFARE DISPARITIES ACROSS AND WITHINREGIONS OF BRAZIL: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2002-03 POFEmmanuel Skoufias, The World Bank (MC4-415)Co-Author: Roy Katayama, The World Bank

16:30 - 18:00 MACROECONOMICS: CENTRAL BANKS(LACEA)Chairperson: Herman Kamil, InternationalMonetary Fund

Room 206

BANKING ON POLITICSMatias Braun, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez & IM TrustCo-Author: Claudio Raddatz, World Bank

DO LATIN AMERICAN CENTRAL BANKERS BEHAVE NON-

LINEARLY? THE EXPERIENCE OF BRAZIL, CHILE, COLOMBIAAND MEXICO.Matteo Mogliani, Paris School of EconomicsCo-Authors: Luiz de Mello, OECD and Diego Moccero, OECD

THE EFFECTS OF THE GLOBALIZATION ON BRAZILIAN

INFLATIONRafael Chaves Santos, Policy Advisor - Central Bank of BrazilCo-Author: Marcia Leon, BCB

DOES FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION WORK FOR

INFLATION TARGETERS? THE CASE OF COLOMBIAHerman Kamil, International Monetary Fund

16:30 - 18:00 DEVELOPMENT: POLICY ANALYSIS(LACEA)Chairperson: Rafael Di Tella, HarvardBusiness School

Room 232

PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION: CAUSALEVIDENCE FOR BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIESEnlinson Mattos, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School ofEconomicsCo-Author: Vitor França, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo Schoolof Economics

DECENTRALIZATION AND EDUCATION PERFORMANCE: A FIRST

VIEW TO THE BRAZILIAN PROCESSMaria Carolina Leme, Escola de Economia de São Paulo FundaçãoGetulio VargasCo-Authors: Ricardo Paredes, Universidad Católica de Chile and AndréSouza, FGV

RE-EVALUATING CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS: IS THE

OPORTUNIDADES PRIMARY SCHOOL STIPEND NECESSARY?Marta Rubio-Codina, University College of LondonCo-Author: Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institutefor Fiscal Studies

REALITY VERSUS PROPAGANDA IN THE FORMATION OF

BELIEFS ABOUT WATER PRIVATIZATIONRafael Di Tella, Harvard Business SchoolCo-Authors: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University in St Louis andErnesto Schargrodsky, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella


36

16:30 - 18:00 POLITICAL ECONOMY I (LACEA)Chairperson: Alberto Pinto, Universidade doMinho

Room 236

THE CHOICES GOVERNORS MAKE: THE ROLE OF CHECKS &BALANCES AND POLITICAL COMPETITIONMarcus Melo, University of PernambucoCo-Authors: Lee Alston, University of Colorado, Bernardo Mueller,CERME - University of Brasilia and Carlos Pereira, Michigan StateUniversity

LOBBYING AND INFORMATION TRANSMISSION IN CUSTOMS

UNIONSRafael Costa Lima, FGV/EPGECo-Authors: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE and Thierry Verdier,Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques

COORDINATION EXTERNALITIES IN FEDERAL SYSTEMS

Antoine Loeper, Kellogg School of Management, NorthwesternUniversity

SIGNALLING TO THE HOME POLICYMAKER

Alberto Pinto, Universidade do MinhoCo-Authors: Fernanda A. Ferreira, ESEIG, Instituto Politécnico do Portoand Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE

16:30 - 18:00 MACROECONOMICS: EXTERNALSHOCKS (LACEA)Chairperson: Sebastian Sosa, InternationalMonetary Fund

Room 331

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SHOCKS IN EMERGING MARKETECONOMIESMichael Brei, Bonn Graduate School of EconomicsCo-Author: Almira Buzaushina, Bonn Graduate School of Economics

GLOBAL CREDIT SHOCKS, REAL INTEREST RATE AND

BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING ECONOMIESSarquis Sarquis, IRBr (Brazil), FMG/LSE (UK)

BALANCE SHEET EFFECTS IN CURRENCY CRISES: EVIDENCE

FROM BRAZILMarcio Janot, Banco Central do Brasil e PUC-RioCo-Authors: Márcio G. P. Garcia, PUC-Rio and Walter Novaes, PUC-Rio

EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS IN

MEXICO: HOW IMPORTANT ARE U.S. FACTORS?Sebastian Sosa, International Monetary Fund

16:30 - 18:00 FAMILY AND EDUCATION I (LACEA)Chairperson: André Souza, FGV

Room 335

SOCIAL SECURITY EFFECTS ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION:COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS FOR BRAZILRodrigo Moura, EPGE/FGVCo-Authors: Jaime Jesus Filho, University of Chicago, Ligia Ourives,EPGE/FGV and Brazilian National Treasury Secretariat and PauloTafner, IPEA


37

TRENDS IN INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS ANDEDUCATIONAL MOBILITY: THE CASE OF CHILELeslie Miranda, Centro de Microdatos, Universidad de ChileCo-Author: Javier Nuñez, Universidad de Chile

DOES THE GRADIENT MATTER? FURTHER UNDERSTANDING

THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF HUMAN CAPITALAndré Souza, FGVCo-Author: George Jakubson, Cornell Univeristy

IDENTITY AND EDUCATIONAL CHOICE: A BEHAVIORAL

APPROACHYuemei Ji, K.U.Leuven

16:30 - 18:00 BANKING (LACEA)Chairperson: Marcio Nakane, Sao PauloUniversity

Room 349

IDENTIFYING BANK LENDING REACTION TO MONETARY POLICYTHROUGH DATA FREQUENCYChristiano Arrigoni Coelho, PUC-RioCo-Authors: João Manoel De Mello, PUC-Rio and Márcio G. P. Garcia,PUC-Rio

IS THE BRAZILIAN BANKING SYSTEM COMPETITIVE?

Claudio Lucinda, Fundação Getúlio Vargas

BANK LOAN SECURITIZATION: AN ALTERNATIVE FOR BANKS TOFIND LIQUIDITYMónica Vargas Martínez, Universidad del Rosario

ENTRIES, EXITS AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION: AN ANALYSIS

OF THE BANKING INTERMEDIATION IN BRAZILMarcio Nakane, Sao Paulo UniversityCo-Author: Bruno Rocha, Tendências Consultoria Integrada

16:30 - 18:00 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS I (LACEA)Chairperson: Facundo Albornoz, University ofBirmingham

Room 401

TAX POLICY AS A COMPETITIVENESS MECHANISM TO ATTRACTMANUFACTURING FDI INFLOWS: AN APPLICATION TO THELATIN-AMERICANFernando Mesa, National Planning Department, ColombiaCo-Author: Rafael Isidro Parra-Pena Somoza, Researcher for ECLAC(U.N)

PRODUCTION SHARING AND BUSINESS CYCLE CO-MOVEMENTS

WITH HETEROGENEOUS FIRMSAndrei Zlate, Boston College

CHRONICLE OF LARGE CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS: RE-

EXAMINING THE EFFECTS ON OUTPUTCamilo Tovar, Bank for International SettlementsCo-Author: Sweta Saxena, Bank for International Settlements

INVESTMENT AND EXPROPRIATION UNDER OLIGARCHY AND

DEMOCRACY IN A HECKSCHER-OHLIN WORLDFacundo Albornoz, University of BirminghamCo-Authors: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University in St Louis andDaniel Heymann, Cepal


38


16:30 - 18:00 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT I (LAMESEEE)Chairperson: Eduardo Martinez-Chombo,Banco de Mexico

Room 130

FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: BEYONDBANKS AND STOCK MARKETS, THE ROLE OF INSURANCEMARKETS. A CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY FOR INDUSTRIALIZEDAND DEVELOPING COUNTRIESMarco Arena, World Bank

THE INFLUENCE OF TOURISM OVER ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE

MEXICAN CASEJosé Luis de la Cruz Gallegos, Tecnológico de Monterrey, campusEstado de MéxicoCo-Authors: Carlos Canfield, Tecnológico de Monterrey, campusEstado de México and Eduardo Carbajal , Tecnológico de Monterrey,campus Estado de México

HETEROGENEITIES AND VOLATILITY: CONVERGENCE IN

DEVELOPING COUNTRIESMaria Elisa Farias, Universidad de Chile

LAG STRUCTURE BETWEEN ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE

AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MEXICOEduardo Martinez-Chombo, Banco de Mexico

16:30 - 18:00 TREATMENT EFFECTS AND ANALISYSOF EDUCATION (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Eskil Heinesen, AKF, DanishInstitute of Governmental Research

Room 132

THE IMPACT OF THE BOLSA ESCOLA/FAMILIA CONDITIONALCASH TRANSFER PROGRAM ON ENROLLMENT, DROP OUTRATES AND GRADE PROMOTION IN BRAZILAna Lucia Kassouf, Esalq, Universidade Sao PauloCo-Author: Paul Glewwe, University of Minnesota

SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF PEER EFFECTS IN

CLASSROOMS: EVIDENCE FOR BRAZILIAN SCHOOLS IN 2003Cristine Campos de Xavier Pinto, CEDEPLAR/UFMG

FINITE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF SEMIPARAMETRIC

ESTIMATORS OF AVERAGE TREATMENT EFFECTSMatias Busso, Inter-American Development Bank

ESTIMATING CLASS-SIZE EFFECTS USING WITHIN-SCHOOL

VARIATION IN SUBJECT-SPECIFIC CLASSESEskil Heinesen, AKF, Danish Institute of Governmental Research

16:30 - 18:00 MIGRATION (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Christian Bayer, IGIER,Università Commerciale L. Bocconi

Room 329

THE EFFECT OF MIGRANT NETWORKS ON MEXICAN MIGRATIONSu-Hsin Chang, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University


39

INTERNAL MIGRATION, SELECTION BIAS AND REGIONALRETURNS TO SCHOOLING IN BRAZILEduardo Ribeiro, Institute of Economics / UFRJCo-Author: Viviane Bastos, Georgia State University

CONVERGENCE IN THE UNITED STATES: A TALE OF MIGRATION

AND URBANIZATIONRiccardo DiCecio, FRB of St. LouisCo-Author: Charles Gascon, FRB of St. Louis

ON THE DYNAMICS OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION: MIGRATION

COSTS AND SELF-SELECTIONChristian Bayer, IGIER, Università Commerciale L. BocconiCo-Author: Falko Juessen, TU Dortmund University

16:30 - 18:00 ECONOMETRIC THEORY I (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Valderio Reisen, UFES

Room 345

TESTING FOR SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS IN PSEUDO PANELS:THEORY AND MONTE CARLOJhon Mora, Universidad ICESICo-Author: Juan Muro, Universidad de Alcala

BOOTSTRAP FOR PANEL REGRESSION MODELS WITH RANDOM

EFFECTSBertrand Hounkannounon, Department of Economics, Université deMontréal

PENALIZED QUANTILE REGRESSION IN SPARSE HIGH-

DIMENSIONAL MODELSAlexandre Belloni, Duke UniversityCo-Author: Victor Chernozhukov,

BOOTSTRAP LOG-AVERAGE SAMPLE SPECTRAL ESTIMATOR

OF THE FRACTIONAL PARAMETER IN ARFIMA MODELSValderio Reisen, UFESCo-Authors: Giovanni Comarela, UFES and Glaura Franco, UFMG


16:30 - 18:00 EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS (LAMESTAE)Chairperson: Juan Dubra, Universidad deMontevideo

Room 224

SOCIAL LEARNING THROUGH ENDOGENOUS INFORMATIONACQUISITION: AN EXPERIMENTBogachan Celen, Columbia UniversityCo-Author: Kyle Hyndman, SMU

HOW COSTLY IS DIVERSITY? AFFIRMATIVE ACTION IN LIGHT OF

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN COMPETITIVENESSSegal Carmit, Universitat Pompeu FabraCo-Authors: Muriel Niederle, Stanford University and Lise Vesterlund,University of Pittsburgh


40

ARE VIOLATIONS OF INDEPENDENCE ERRORS? ANEXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATIONUlrich Schmidt, University of KielCo-Author: Michael Birnbaum, CSUF

OVERCONFIDENCE?

Juan Dubra, Universidad de MontevideoCo-Author: Jean-Pierre Benoit, London Business School

16:30 - 18:00 NONCOOPERATIVE GAMES (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Sergio O. Parreiras, Universityof North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Room 228

MULTIPLE OPPONENTS AND THE LIMITS OF REPUTATIONSambuddha Ghosh, Boston Univ., Princeton Univ.

ON RISK AVERSION IN THE RUBINSTEIN BARGAINING GAME

Emanuel Kohlscheen, University of WarwickCo-Author: Steve O'Connell, Swarthmore College

ON THE EXISTENCE OF NASH EQUILIBRIA IN DISCONTINUOUS

AND QUALITATIVE GAMESPaulo Barelli, University of RochesterCo-Author: Idione Soza, University of Rochester

CONTESTS WITH THREE OR MORE HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS

Sergio O. Parreiras, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillCo-Author: Anna Rubinchik, University of Colorado at Boulder

16:30 - 18:00 RBC MODELS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Alexandre Cunha, IBMECBusiness School - Rio de Janeiro

Room 333

CYCLICAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING, INCOME INEQUALITY ANDWELFARE IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIESG.C. Lim, University of MelbourneCo-Author: Paul McNelis, Fordham University

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY: THE

ROLE OF DEMOGRAPHICSAlexandre Janiak, CEA, University of Chile and IZACo-Author: Paulo Santos-Monteiro, Warwick

IMMIGRATION AND THE MACROECONOMY: AN INTERNATIONAL

REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODELFederico Mandelman, Federal Reserve Bank of AtlantaCo-Author: Andrei Zlate, Boston College

IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODIGLIANI-MILLER THEOREM FOR THE

STUDY OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMESAlexandre Cunha, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro

16:30 - 18:00 PREFERENCES AND DECISION-MAKING I(LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Ricard Torres, ITAM andUniversitat de Girona

Room 347

ROBUST HIDDEN MARKOV LQG PROBLEMSRicardo Mayer, University of Chicago and UDPCo-Authors: Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago and ThomasSargent, New York University


41

ADDITIVE SEPARABILITY, OPTIMIZATION, AND TRIVIAL WEBSThomas Russell, Santa Clara University

OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION UNDER LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS AND

BOUNDED RATIONALITYÖzak Ömer, Brown UniversityCo-Author: Peter Howitt, Brown University

STATE SPACE DIMENSIONS AND BELIEF UPDATING

Ricard Torres, ITAM and Universitat de Girona

18:00 - 19:00 LACEA PLENARY SESSIONS

18:00 - 19:00 IDB SPECIAL SESSION: SCIENCE OF HAPPINESS (18-19HS) (LACEA)Chairperson: Jere Behrman, University of PennsylvaniaDiscussant: Carol Graham, Brookings Institution

This Session is Sponsored by the IDB

Room Auditorium 1

BOOK PRESENTATION: "BEYOND FACTS, UNDERSTANDINGQUALITY OF LIFE"Eduardo Lora, Chief Economist and General Manager, ResearchDepartment, IDB

SPEAKER

Bernard Van Praag, Amsterdam University

18:00 - 19:00 BIS ROUND TABLE: CHALLENGES TO INFLATIONTARGETING (LACEA)Chairperson: Mar Gudmundsson, Deputy Head of the BISMonetary and Economic Department

This Session is sponsored by the BIS

Room Auditorium 2

PANELIST 1José De Gregorio, Governor - Central Bank of Chile

PANELIST 2

John Murray, Deputy Governor - Bank of Canada

PANELIST 3Mario Torós, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy

PANELIST 4

Guillermo Calvo, Professor of Economics, International & Public Affairs- Columbia University

18:00 - 19:30 LAMES INVITED SESSIONS

18:00 - 19:30 CONSUMER PROTECTION AND ENFORCEMENT(LAMES)Chairperson: Luis Fernando Schuartz, FGV-RJ

Room Auditorium 3


42

CONSUMER PROTECTION AND THE INCENTIVE TO BECOMEINFORMEDMark Armstrong, Department of Economics, University College LondonCo-Author(s): John Vickers, All Souls College, University of Oxford andJidong Zhou, Department of Economics, University College London

LET THE PUNISHMENT FIT THE CRIME: ENFORCEMENT WITH

ERRORPreston McAfee, Caltech, YahooCo-Author(s): Indranil Chakraborty, National University of Singapore

18:00 - 19:30 IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF MODELSUSING PANEL DATA (LAMES)Chairperson: Ignacio Lobato, ITAM

Room 224

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF 'IRREGULAR'CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT MODELSJames Powell, University of California, BerkeleyCo-Author(s): Bryan S. Graham, University of California, Berkeley

A MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD FOR THE INCIDENTAL

PARAMETER PROBLEMMarcelo J. Moreira, Columbia University and EPGE/FGV

18:00 - 19:30 FINANCE (LAMES)Chairperson: Jorge Zubelli, IMPA

Room 228

RISK AVERSION AND THE ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION INGENERAL DYNAMIC PORTFOLIO THEORY: CONSISTENTPLANNING BY FORWARD LOOKING, EXPECTED UTILITYMAXIMIZING INVESTORSRichard E. Kihlstrom, University of Pennsylvania

HISTORICAL VOLATILITY ESTIMATION

Bruno Dupire, Bloomberg L.P./NYU

19:00 - 20:00 LACEA PLENARY SESSION

19:00 - 20:00 WORLD BANK SPONSORED PLENARY SESSION:EMERGING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY:LESSONS FROM BRICS (LACEA)Chairperson: Alexandre Tombini, Director of Norms -Brazilian Central Bank

This Session is Sponsored by the World Bank

Room Auditorium 2

PANELIST 1Justin Lin, Chief Economist for the World Bank

PANELIST 2

Abhijit Banerjee, MIT

PANELIST 3Armínio Fraga, Gávea Investimentos

20:00 COCKTAIL


43

FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008

DAY OVERVIEW

08:15 - 09:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions09:45 - 10:00 Coffee Break10:00 - 11:00 Invited Lectures11:00 - 12:30 Invited Lectures and Sessions and Sponsored Session12:30 - 13:15 Lunch13:15 - 14:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions14:45 - 16:15 Invited and Sponsored Lectures16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break16:30 - 17:30 Keynote Lecture17:30 - 18:30 Invited Lectures18:30 - 19:30 Plenary Session and Presidential Address20:30 Conference Dinner


08:15 - 09:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION:REASSESSING QUALITY OF EDUCATIONIN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN(LACEA)Chairperson: Suzanne Duryea, Inter-American Development Bank


Room Auditorium 1

PANELIST 1Jorge Manzi, Universidad Católica de Chile

PANELIST 2

Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP

08:15 - 09:45 OECD LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMICOUTLOOK (LACEA)Chairperson: Jeff Dayton-Johnson, OECD

Room Auditorium 2

PANELIST 1Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for InternationalDevelopment, Harvard University

PANELIST 2

Augusto de la Torre, Chief Economist for Latin America and theCaribbean, World Bank

PANELIST 3

Eduardo Lora, Chief Economist and General Manager, ResearchDepartment, IDB

44

PANELIST 4Mariano Tommasi, Professor of Economics, Universidad de San Andresand Director of the Center of Studies for Institutional Development

PANELIST 5

Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA

PANELIST 6Ernesto Stein, Lead Research Economist at Research Department,Inter-American Development Bank

PANELIST 7

Ugo Panizza, Unctad

PANELIST 8Ernesto Talvi, Executive Director, CERES

08:15 - 09:45 BBVA SPONSORED SESSION: ASIA ANDLATIN AMERICA FACING THE CRISIS:HOW MUCH CONTAGION, HOW MUCHDECOUPLING? (LACEA)Chairperson: Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo

This Session is Sponsored by BBVA

Room Auditorium 3

PANELIST 1Alicia Garcia Herrero, BBVA

PANELIST 2

Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo

PANELIST 3Antoni Estevadeordal, Inter-American Development Bank

PANELIST 4

Hiro Kawai, World Bank

08:15 - 09:45 LABOR ECONOMICS III (LACEA)Chairperson: Manuel Barron, InternationalFood Policy Research Institute

Room 206

REGIONAL IMBALANCES AND MARKET POTENTIAL IN BRAZILMauro LEMOS, Cedeplar/UFMGCo-Authors: Pedro Amaral, CEDEPLAR/UFMG, Flávia Chein,CEDEPLAR/FACE/UFMG and Rodrigo SIMÕES, Cedeplar/UFMG

MEXICO IN THE 1990S: THE MAIN CROSS-SECTIONAL FACTS

Chiara Binelli, Oxford UniversityCo-Author: Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institutefor Fiscal Studies

TRANSANTIAGO AND THE LABOR MARKET

David Bravo, Centro de Microdatos, Departamento de Economia,Universidad de ChileCo-Author: claudia martinez, Centro de Microdatos, Dept. Economics,Universidad de Chile

DETERMINANTS OF TIME ALLOCATION TO RURAL NON-FARM

EMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL AMERICA: THE ROLE OFINFRASTRUCTURE AND EDUCATIONManuel Barron, International Food Policy Research InstituteCo-Author: Maximo Torero, IFPRI


45

08:15 - 09:45 CREDIT AND BANKRUPTCY (LACEA)Chairperson: Susan Schommer, IMPA -Instituto Nacional de Matematica Pura eAplicada

Room 232

DO REORGANIZATION COSTS MATTER FOR EFFICIENCY?EVIDENCE FROM A BANKRUPTCY REFORM IN COLOMBIAInessa Love, The World BankCo-Author: Xavier Gine, The World bank

CREDIT CARD HOLDING AND USAGE IN MEXICO: EVIDENCE

FROM THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF HOUSEHOLDS' INCOME ANDEXPENDITURES 2006Castellanos Sara, Secretaría de Economía, MéxicoCo-Author: Daniel Garrido, Banco de México

CREDIT CONSTRAINTS AND THE DEMAND FOR HIGHER

EDUCATION IN LATIN AMERICAMariana Alfonso, Inter-American Development Bank

REGULATED COLLATERAL WITH INCOMPLETE MARKETS

Susan Schommer, IMPA - Instituto Nacional de Matematica Pura eAplicadaCo-Authors: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA and Felix Kubler,University of Zurich

08:15 - 09:45 MONETARY POLICY I (LACEA)Chairperson: Michael Binder, GoetheUniversity Frankfurt

Room 236

OPTIMAL MONETARY AND AUDIT POLICY WITH IMPERFECTTAXATIONMarcelo Arbex, University of WindsorCo-Author: Nurlan Turdaliev, University of Windsor

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY UNDER ASSET MARKET

SEGMENTATIONRajesh Singh, Iowa State UniversityCo-Authors: Amartya Lahiri, University of British Columbia and CarlosVegh, university of maryland

WHAT CAN TAYLOR RULES SAY ABOUT MONETARY POLICY IN

LATIN AMERICA?Alexandre de Carvalho, IBMEC SÃO PAULOCo-Author: Marcelo Moura, IBMEC SAO PAULO

ON THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS ON

EXCHANGE RATES: A MULTILATERAL VECTOR ERRORCORRECTION APPROACHMichael Binder, Goethe University FrankfurtCo-Authors: Qianying Chen, Goethe University Frankfurt and XuanZhang, Goethe University Frankfurt

08:15 - 09:45 THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME I (LACEA)Chairperson: Igor Barenboim, HarvardUniversity

Room 329

GUN CONTROL, CRIME AND RISK AVERSIONCristiano Aguiar de Oliveira, UFRGS


46

PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF HOMICIDES: AN EVALUATIONOF IMPACT IN BRAZILBetânia Peixoto, CEDEPLAR/UFMG; FJPCo-Authors: Joao Pedro Azevedo, World Bank and Monica ViegasAndrade, CEDEPLAR-UFMG

DOES CRIME BREED INEQUALITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE

FAVELAS OF RIO DE JANEIROIgor Barenboim, Harvard UniversityCo-Author: Filipe Campante, Harvard University

08:15 - 09:45 SOCIAL INTERACTIONS (LACEA)Chairperson: Renos Vakis, World Bank

Room 331

NETWORK STRUCTURE IN A LINK FORMATION GAME: ANEXPERIMENTAL STUDYRoberto Muñoz, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa MaríaCo-Authors: Alexander Elbittar, Centro de Investigación y DocenciaEconomicas (CIDE) and Rodrigo Harrison, Pontificia UniversidadCatólica de Chile

DO WELFARE PROGRAMS DAMAGE INTERPERSONAL TRUST?

EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLESFOR FOUR LATIN AMERICAN CITIESF. Vanessa Rios, Inter-American Development BankCo-Authors: Alberto Chong, Inter-American Development Bank andHugo Nopo, Inter-American Development Bank

THE ROLE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL ON INDIVIDUAL INCOMES IN

BRAZILAlexandre Barros, Federal University of PernambucoCo-Author: Cristiane Mesquita, PIMES - Federal University ofPernambuco

CHANGING HOUSEHOLDS’ INVESTMENTS AND ASPIRATIONS

THROUGH SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM ARANDOMIZED TRANSFER PROGRAM IN A LOW-INCOMECOUNTRYRenos Vakis, World BankCo-Author: Karen Macours, Johns Hopkins University

08:15 - 09:45 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (LACEA)Chairperson: Alessandro Maffioli, Inter-American Development Bank

Room 335

A HARD ROW TO HOE: SMALL-SCALE FARMING ON THEBRAZILIAN AMAZON FRONTIER UNDER INCOMPLETE PROPERTYRIGHTSRobert Tatum, University of North Carolina - Asheville

AMBIGUITY AVERSION AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE IN SMALL-

SCALE PERUVIAN FARMINGSonia Laszlo, McGill UniversityCo-Authors: Jim Engle-Warnick, McGill University and Javier Escobal,GRADE

TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION IN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTS

Pilar Useche, University of Florida


47

THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES: THECASE OF GRAPE PRODUCTION IN ARGENTINAAlessandro Maffioli, Inter-American Development BankCo-Authors: Pedro Cerdán-Infantes, Inter-American Development Bankand Diego Ubfal, University of California at Los Angeles

08:15 - 09:45 POVERTY AND WELFARE II (LACEA)Chairperson: Diego Arias, World Bank

Room 349

NUTRITIONAL SUPPLEMENTATION OF GIRLS INFLUENCES THEGROWTH OF THEIR CHILDREN: PROSPECTIVE STUDY INGUATEMALAMaria Cecilia Calderon, University of PennsylvaniaCo-Authors: Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania, John Hoddinott,International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), ReynaldoMartorell, Emory University, Samuel Preston, University ofPennsylvania and Aryeh Stein, Emory University

CHRONIC VERSUS ACUTE CONDITIONS: UNDERSTANDING THE

INCOME GRADIENT IN BRAZILAnna Crespo, Princeton University

THE IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE INCREASES ON POVERTY IN

MEXICOJuan Carlos Chavez, CEFP / Universidad de GuanajuatoCo-Author: Hector J. Villarreal, EGAP ITESM / CEFP

HAITI’S FOOD SUPPORT STRUCTURE: RESPONDING TO THE

FOOD CRISISDiego Arias, World BankCo-Authors: Giau Nguyen, Harvard University, Hector Pena, Universityof Essex and Christopher Sutton, Harvard University

08:15 - 09:45 FINANCIAL CRISIS (LACEA)Chairperson: Jihad Dagher, InternationalMonetary Fund

Room 401

CREDIT CHANNEL AND FLIGHT TO QUALITY IN EMERGINGMARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM CHILERodrigo Troncoso, Universidad Diego Portales

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS, CRISES AND RECOVERIES

Guillermo Ordonez, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

EFFECTS OF A FINANCIAL CRISIS ON OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE:AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATIONGabriel Madeira, Universidade de São Paulo

SUDDEN STOPS, OUTPUT DROPS AND CREDIT COLLAPSES

Jihad Dagher, International Monetary Fund


08:15 - 09:45 TESTING: DENSITY AND UNIT ROOT(LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Jesus Otero, Universidad delRosario

Room 132


48

ROOT-N-UNIFORMLY CONSISTENT DENSITY ESTIMATION INNONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION MODELSDavid Tomás Jacho-Chávez, Indiana UniversityCo-Author: Juan Carlos Escanciano, Indiana University

SMALL BANDWIDTH ASYMPTOTICS FOR DENSITY-WEIGHTED

AVERAGE DERIVATIVESMatias Cattaneo, University of MichiganCo-Authors: Richard Crump, University of California at Berkeley andMichael Jansson, University of California at Berkeley

UNIT ROOT TESTING WITH STATIONARY COVARIATES AND A

STRUCTURAL BREAK IN THE TREND FUNCTIONSebastian Fossati, University of Washington

TESTING FOR UNIT ROOTS IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL

HETEROGENEOUS PANELS IN THE PRESENCE OF CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCEJesus Otero, Universidad del RosarioCo-Authors: Giulietti Monica, Aston Business School and Jeremy Smith,University of Warwick

08:15 - 09:45 PUBLIC FINANCE (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Enlinson Mattos, GetulioVargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School ofEconomics

Room 345

3-STEP ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC FINANCES SUSTAINABILITY: THECASE OF THE EUROPEAN UNIONAntonio Afonso, ECB and ISEG/UTL

DEMOCRACY AND REFORMS

Prachi Mishra, Research Department, IMF and Antonio Spilimbergo,IMFCo-Author: Paola Giuliano, UCLA

RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE THEOREM IN ''A FEW LINES''

Jaime Orrillo, Catholic University of BrasiliaCo-Author: Jose Angelo Divino, Catholic University of Brasilia

ON THE MARGINAL SOCIAL COST OF CASH-CUM-IN-KIND

TRANSFERSEnlinson Mattos, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School ofEconomicsCo-Authors: Lucas Duarte, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao PauloSchool of Economics and Juliana Serillo, Getulio Vargas Foundation -Sao Paulo School of Economics

08:15 - 09:45 ECONOMETRIC THEORY:MACROECONOMICS (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Eduardo Ley, The World Bank

Room 347

A FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING STRUCTURAL DYNAMICMODELS WITH AGGREGATE SHOCKS WITH AN APPLICATION TOMORTGAGE DEFAULT IN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 1997 AND 2004Juan Esteban Carranza, University of Wisconsin-MadisonCo-Author: Salvador Navarro, University of Wisconsin-Madison


49

EFFICIENT LIKELIHOOD EVALUATION OF NONLINEAR RBCMODELSGuilherme Valle Moura, University of Kiel, GermanyCo-Authors: David DeJong, University of Pittsburgh, Roman Lisenfeld,University of Kiel and Jean-Francois Richard, University of Pittsburgh

IMPULSE RESPONSE MODELS IN VARIANCE AND COVARIANCE

Christos Ioannidis, School of Management-Univerisyt of BathCo-Author: Julian Williams, university of aberdeen

ON THE EFFECT OF PRIOR ASSUMPTIONS IN BAYESIAN MODEL

AVERAGING WITH APPLICATIONS TO GROWTH REGRESSIONEduardo Ley, The World BankCo-Author: Mark Steel, University of Warwick


08:15 - 09:45 PRICE DYNAMICS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank ofCanada

Room 130

CAN EXCHANGE RATES FORECAST COMMODITY PRICES?Yu-chin Chen, University of WashingtonCo-Authors: Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University and Barbara Rossi,Duke University

WAGE AND PRICE DYNAMICS IN PORTUGAL

Carlos Robalo Marques, Banco de Portugal

A MULTI-SECTORAL APPROACH TO THE U.S. GREATDEPRESSIONPedro Amaral, Southern Methodist UniversityCo-Author: James MacGee, University of western Ontario

INVENTORIES, MARKUPS, AND REAL RIGIDITIES IN MENU COST

MODELSOleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada

08:15 - 09:45 FINANCIAL ECONOMICS II (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Georgios Skoulakis, Universityof Maryland

Room 224

CHERRY-PICKING AND ASSET COMPLEXITY: A THEORY OFRATINGS INFLATIONVasiliki Skreta, NYU, Stern School of BusinessCo-Author: Laura Veldkamp, NYU, Stern

PUBLIC INFORMATION AND COORDINATION: EVIDENCE FROM A

CREDIT REGISTRY EXPANSIONDaniel Paravisini, Columbia UniversityCo-Authors: Andrew Hertzberg, Columbia University and Jose Liberti,DePaul University

NONPARAMETRIC LINEAR REGRESSION TO SPOT THE

VOLATILITYIsabel Casas, CREATES (University of Aarhus)Co-Author: Irene Gijbels, K.U. Leuven


50

DO SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS EXPLAIN ASSET PRICINGPUZZLES?Georgios Skoulakis, University of MarylandCo-Author: Gurdip Bakshi, University of Maryland

08:15 - 09:45 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM I (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha,Graduate School of Economics, GetulioVargas Foundation

Room 228

THE DYNAMICS OF EFFICIENT ASSET TRADING WITHHETEROGENEOUS BELIEFSEmilio Espino, Universidad Torcuato Di TellaCo-Author: Pablo Beker, University of Warwick

LEVERAGE CYCLES AND THE ANXIOUS ECONOMY

Ana Fostel, George Washington UniversityCo-Author: John Geanakoplos, Yale University

WALRASIAN EQUILIBRIUM AS LIMIT OF A COMPETITIVE

EQUILIBRIUM WITHOUT DIVISIBLE GOODSRivera Jorge, Departamento de Economia, U. de ChileCo-Author: Florig Michael, University of Paris 1

BELIEF FORMATION AND THE INFORMATION REVEALED BY

ENDOGENOUS BORROWING CONSTRAINTSV. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha, Graduate School of Economics, GetulioVargas FoundationCo-Author: Yiannis Vailakis, School of Business and Economics,University of Exeter

08:15 - 09:45 EXPERIMENTAL GAMES (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Andrei Gomberg, ITAM

Room 333

ENDOGENOUS COMMUNICATION AND TACIT COORDINATION INMARKET ENTRY GAMES -AN EXPLORATIVE EXPERIMENTALSTUDYHåkan Holm, Lund UniversityCo-Author: Ola Andersson, Stockholm School of Economics

CO-EVOLUTION OF INEQUITY-AVERSE AGENTS

Daniel Arce, University of Texas at Dallas

UNDERSTANDING TRUSTAnna Toldra Simats, Kellogg School of Management, NorthwesternUniversityCo-Authors: Paola Sapienza, Kellogg School of Management,Northwestern University and Luigi Zingales, GSB, University of Chicago

A LABORATORY STYDY OF DEMAND REDUCTION AND

COLLUSION IN UNIFORM AND DISCRIMINATORY-PRICEAUCTIONSAndrei Gomberg, ITAMCo-Author: Alexander Elbittar, Centro de Investigación y DocenciaEconomicas (CIDE)



51

10:00 - 11:00 INVITED LECTURESLACEA

10:00 - 11:00 CARLOS ALEJANDRO DIAZ PRIZE:WINNER LECTURE (LACEA)Chairperson: TBA

Room Auditorium 2

TBAJere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania

10:00 - 11:00 INVITED LECTURESLAMES

10:00 - 11:00 SPECIAL LECTURE - SPONSORED BYBANCO ITAÚ (LAMES)Chairperson: Paulo Klinger Monteiro, EPGE -FGV

Room Auditorium 1

INCENTIVES TO CULTIVATE SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS UNDERALTERNATIVE ELECTORAL SYSTEMSRoger Myerson, University of Chicago

10:00 - 11:00 SPECIAL LECTURE (LAMES)Chairperson: João Victor Issler,FGV/EPGE/RJ

Room Auditorium 3

ECONONOMIC MODELS AND MOMENT INEQUALITY ESTIMATORSAriel Pakes, Harvard University

11:00 - 12:30 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONSLACEA

11:00 - 12:30 MACROECONOMICS II (LACEA)Chairperson: Carlos E. da Costa, FundaçãoGetulio Vargas

Room Auditorium 1

LESSONS FROM THE NEW DYNAMIC PUBLIC FINANCENarayana Kocherlakota, University of Minnesota

EQUILIBRIUM DEFAULT

Hugo Hopenhayn, University of California, Los AngelesCo-Author: Iván Werning, MIT

11:00 - 12:30 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS II (LACEA)Chairperson: Juliano Assunção,Departamento de Economia PUC-Rio

Room Auditorium 3

NUTRITION AND CHILD CARE CHOICES IN RURAL COLOMBIAOrazio Attanasio, University College London and Institute for FiscalStudies

PAROCHIAL POLITICS: ETHNIC PREFERENCES AND POLITICIAN

CORRUPTIONAbhijit Banerjee, MITCo-Author: Rohini Pande, Harvard University


52

11:00 - 12:30 POLITICAL ECONOMY II (LACEA)Chairperson: Claudio Ferraz, PUC-Rio

Room 228

WHAT MAKES PEOPLE VOTE? EVIDENCE FROM THREE FIELDEXPERIMENTS IN INDIARohini Pande, Harvard University

PRESS COVERAGE AND POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY

David Strömberg, Stockholm University

SELF-ESTEEM, MORAL CAPITAL, AND WRONGDOINGErnesto Dal Bó, University of California at Berkeley

11:00 - 12:30 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONSLAMES

11:00 - 12:30 HURWICZ LECTURE (LAMES)Chairperson: TBA

Room Auditorium 2

THE LEVERAGE CYCLE AND THE PRESENT FINANCIAL CRISISJohn Geanakoplos, Yale University

INSIDE AND OUTSIDE LIQUIDITY

José Scheinkman, Princeton UniversityCo-Authors: Patrick Bolton, Princeton University and Tano Santos,Columbia University

11:00 - 12:30 MECHANISM DESIGN (LAMES)Chairperson: Humberto Moreira, FGV --EPGE

Room 224

MECHANISM DESIGN WITH BILATERAL CONTRACTINGDavid Martimort, Université ToulouseCo-Author: Vianney Dequiedt, INRA

DYNAMIC MECHANISM DESIGN

Ilya Segal, Stanford University

11:00 - 12:30 SPONSORED SESSION

11:00 - 12:30 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: THE FINANCIAL CRISISAND THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS TO LATINAMERICA (LACEA)Chairperson: Andrew Powell, Inter- American DevelopmentBank


Room 232

PANELIST 1Charles Calomiris, Columbia University

PANELIST 2

Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution and LACEA

PANELIST 3Michael Gavin, Citadel Investment Group

12:30 - 13:15 LUNCH


53


13:15 - 14:45 CAF PANEL ON INFRASTRUCTURE ANDDEVELOPMENT (CAF FLAGSHIP 2009)(LACEA)Chairperson: Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDTDiscussants: Mauricio Cárdenas, BrookingsInstitute and LACEA, Eduardo Engel,Department of Economics, Yale Universityand Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo

This Session is Sponsored by CAF

Room Auditorium 1

SPEAKERSMiguel Castilla, CAF and Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT

13:15 - 14:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: GROWINGPAINS: BINDING CONSTRAINTS TOPRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT IN LATINAMERICA (LACEA)Chairperson: Octaviano Canuto, Vice-President, Inter-American Development BankDiscussants: Augusto de la Torre, ChiefEconomist for Latin America and theCaribbean, World Bank, Ricardo Hausmann,Director of the Center for InternationalDevelopment, Harvard University, CharlesSabel, Columbia University and AndresVelasco, Harvard University


Room Auditorium 2

GROWING PAINS: BINDING CONSTRAINTS TO PRODUCTIVEINVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICAManuel Agosín, Universidad de Chile and Fidel Jaramillo, Inter-American Development Bank

13:15 - 14:45 UNDP SPONSORED SESSION: THEINTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSIONOF INEQUALITY IN HUMANDEVELOPMENT (LACEA)Chairperson: Luis Felipe López-Calva,Regional Bureau of Latin America and theCaribbean, UNDP

This Session is sponsored by the UNDP

Room Auditorium 3

THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY INLACIsidro Soloaga, Colmex and UNDPCo-Author: Luis Felipe López-Calva, Regional Bureau of Latin Americaand the Caribbean, UNDP

MOBILITY AND ASPIRATIONS AND THE TRANSMISSION OF

INEQUALITYGarance Genicot, University of GeorgetownCo-Author: Debraj Ray, NYU


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AGENCY, EMPOWERMENT AND THE TRANSMISSION OFINEQUALITY.Maria Emma Santos, Oxford Poverty and Human DevelopmentInitiative, University of Oxford and CONICET-Universidad Nacional delSur

COMMENTS TO UNDP´S PROJECT LAC-REGIONAL REPORT ON

THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY INHUMAN DEVELOPMENTJere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania

13:15 - 14:45 MONETARY POLICY II (LACEA)Chairperson: Carlos Montoro, Universidaddel Pacifico, Banco Central de Reserva delPeru

Room 206

OPTIMAL INTEREST RATE RULES UNDER ENDOGENOUS FISCALPOLICYMercedes Haga, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez

INFLATION TARGETING IN LATIN AMERICA: TOWARDS A

MONETARY UNION?Marc Hofstetter, Universidad de los Andes

BEFORE AND AFTER INFLATION TARGETING: CHANGES IN THE

MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN COLOMBIA.Munir Jalil, Associate Professor

MONETARY POLICY IN THE PRESENCE OF INFORMAL LABOUR

MARKETSCarlos Montoro, Universidad del Pacifico, Banco Central de Reservadel PeruCo-Author: Paul Castillo, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru

13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONS(LACEA)Chairperson: Jamele Rigolini, The WorldBank

Room 232

SCHOOLING AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN ANEOCLASSICAL FRAMEWORK:THEORY AND EVIDENCEFilipe Campante, Harvard UniversityCo-Author: Davin Chor, Singapore Management University

DEMOCRACY AND INEQUALITY: ELECTIONS AND

REDISTRIBUTION IN BRAZILFabiana Machado, Inter-American Development Bank

EXCLUSIONARY POLICIES IN URBAN DEVELOPMENT: HOW

UNDER-SERVICING MIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS AFFECTS THEGROWTH AND COMPOSITION OF BRAZILIAN CITIESLeo Feler, Brown UniversityCo-Author: J. Vernon Henderson, Brown University

INFORMALITY TRENDS AND CYCLES

Jamele Rigolini, The World BankCo-Author: Norman Loayza, The World Bank

13:15 - 14:45 THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME II (LACEA)Chairperson: Ernesto Scharg

Documents

INDEX [impa.br]...Pedro C. Ferreira Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Paul J. Gertler University of California, Berkeley Maitreesh Ghatak London School of Economics Delfim Gomes-Neto