India Risk Tracker™ 03rd April 2018 Page 1

INDIA RISK TRACKER

30 OCTOBER, 2018

INDIA SNAPSHOT

HARYANA AND DELHI

Haryana Roadways employee union extends strike till 02 November; Delhi Transport Corporation go on strike

DELHI More than 1,300 dengue cases reported in Delhi, 64% recorded in October

MAHARASHTRA Maratha group warns of major stir over quota

TELANGANA Traffic diversions in Hyderabad today (30 October) for Arbayeen procession

NATIONAL Air quality remains hazardous in Delhi-NCR; Hyderabad air becomes unhealthy for its citizens

NATIONAL Hindu Mahasabha threatens to protest if Ram Temple ordinance not brought in 30 days

ASIA-PACIFIC SNAPSHOT

BANGLADESH BNP to stage demonstrations in cities today (30 October)

BANGLADESH Businesses hit hard by transport strike; Workers threaten longer strike in November

BANGLADESH Kushtia bypass opens today (30 October)

NEPAL Bhimdatta Municipality locals resume protest

SRI LANKA Warnings of possible volatility in Sri Lanka after President sacks Prime Minister

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PAKISTAN Mobile phone services to remain suspended today (30 October)

VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW VERY LOW

INDIA SNAPSHOT

Haryana and Delhi: Haryana Roadways employee union extends strike till 02 November; Delhi Transport Corporation go on strike

Haryana: The conflict between the Haryana government and striking roadways employees over government's decision to induct 700 private buses further escalated yesterday (29 October) with the latter extending their strike for four more days till 02 November. Furthermore, the unions affiliated to Sarva Karamchari Sangh has also announced to go on a strike on 30 and 31 October in the support of roadways employees' strike and in that case services like supply of water, electricity and sanitation are likely to be affected. Delhi: According to reports, contractual and permanent employees of the Delhi Transport Corporation went on strike yesterday (29 October) despite imposition of Essential Services Maintenance Act (ESMA) by the government. Further, the president of DTC contractual Employees Union stated that the strike will continue and few contractual employees will sit on hunger strike at DTC headquarters from today (30 October). BACKGROUND: Currently, the Haryana state government has not taken back its decision to run 700 odd private buses against which Roadways employees have been on strike. Meanwhile, the union committee stated that the government will not succeed to end their strike by arresting union leaders and appealed to the government to move back from its stand and try solving the crisis through negotiations. Notably, the employees are on strike since 16 October against the government's decision. In Delhi, DTC Workers Unity Centre has in the meantime served a notice for strike yesterday (29 October). The contractual workers demanding restoration of their wages reduced after a court order, reinstatement of workers terminated due to strike, same pay for same work, and strengthening fleet of DTC buses, are on strike since 22 October. Meanwhile, the DTC said that Delhi government has restored the minimum wage rates prevailing before 4 August 2018 of contractual employees and withdrew the orders for reducing the wage. It also stated that the deduction in wages made for the intervening period from 04 August till 31 October will be credited to the accounts of the personnel by the end of this month. The announcement, however, failed to impress the employees who asserted they will continue the agitation. IMPACT ANALYSIS:

Hundreds of commuters across Haryana continued to be on the receiving end of the confrontation between the government and roadways staff.

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Haryana state transport vehicles will most likely not to ply till 02 November. Advised to make arrangements for alternate mode of transport.

Sporadic protests, demonstrations and road blocks on key roads and highways can be expected by Haryana Roadways employees. Advised to maintain situational awareness and plan commute accordingly.

Surge prices can be expected on other modes of transport including taxis, auto rikshaws etc in Haryana and Delhi. Advised to plan accordingly.

Commuters in Delhi had to face overcrowded buses and delays. Advised to plan commute while maintaining situational awareness.

Delhi: More than 1,300 dengue cases reported in Delhi, 64% recorded in October Nearly 300 fresh cases of dengue have been reported over the last one week in Delhi, taking the total number of people diagnosed with the vector-borne disease this season to 1,310.

At least 829 cases were reported in the month of October itself.

Also, 427 cases of malaria and 129 of chikungunya have been reported this season till 27 October.

Nearly 830 new dengue cases came to light in the first four weeks of October, which accounts for over 64% of the total cases reported this season.

Of the 1,310 dengue cases this year, 374 were recorded in September, 58 in August, 19 in July, eight in June, 10 in May, two in April, one in March, three in February and six in January.

Two malaria cases were reported in February, one each in April and March, 17 in May, 25 in June, 42 in July, 82 in August, 138 in September and 119 till 27 October, according to the South Delhi Municipal Corporation (SDMC) which tabulates data on vector-borne diseases in the city.

Background: According to the SDMC, 10 people died due to dengue in Delhi last year, of whom five were not residents of the national capital. Overall, the vector-borne disease had affected 9,271 people in the city last year. RECOMMENDATIONS: Chikungunya and Dengue Doctors have advised people watch out for symptoms of swine flu like cough, fever,

runny nose, bodyache, sore throat, fatigue, and chills. Vector-borne infection can be more serious this season due to a stronger strain of

virus and the immunity is lower due to change in weather. Take necessary precautions. The larva of aides mosquito grow in clean water, usually found in flower pots, open

overhead tanks, small quantity rain water accumulated in waste tyres, utensils, broken pots etc. There is no specific treatment for dengue fever and most people recover within two weeks. The most effective way of preventing dengue fever is by taking precautions to avoid being bitten by mosquitoes.

Use commercially available mosquito repellents, aerosols, and mosquito coils to repel mosquitoes.

Cover water containers in the house to prevent egg laying by mosquitoes.

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Change water in air coolers regularly. The overhead water tanks should also be cleaned from time to time.

Prevent accumulation of stagnant water in surrounding areas, which are a breeding space for mosquitoes. To help with recovery, general measures include: Getting plenty of bed rest. Drinking lots of fluids. Taking medicine to reduce fever. Avoid aspirin but paracetamol is considered safe.

For severe dengue symptoms including shock and coma, hospitalisation and aggressive emergency treatment with fluid and electrolyte replacement may be necessary to save lives.

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Maharashtra: Maratha group warns of major stir over quota The Maratha Kranti Morcha (MKM) has given an ultimatum to the state government over Maratha reservation. The MKM leaders have warned that if the government fails to provide reservation by 15 November, the community will launch its most aggressive agitation, yet. The Maharashtra government has asked the backward commission to submit its report on reservation by 15 November. In a statement issued on Sunday (28 October), MKM, the parent body of Maratha organisations, has issued warning of agitation across the state by 15 November. Background: The Maratha community has been demanding reservation in education and jobs. In August 2018, it launched a stir for the same, which turned violent in different parts of the state, including Aurangabad, Pune and Navi Mumbai. Moreover, activists belonging to the Sakal Maratha Kranti Mahamorcha have decided to launch a hunger strike against the Maharashtra government over their demand for reservation in government jobs and education on 02 November in Mumbai. The group is also demanding the withdrawal of cases registered against Maratha youth for their participation in the recent agitation in the state. IMPACT ANALYSIS:

Any protests by the group have the potential of garnering large scale support and leading to volatility.

Heavy security presence can be expected if a protest breaks out.

The situation is still developing, advised to monitor announcements by the group for further updates.

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Telangana: Traffic diversions in Hyderabad today (30 October) for Arbayeen procession The traffic police announced traffic diversions between 12 noon and 7 pm today (30 October) in the old city in view of ‘Arbayeen’ (religious procession) to be taken out by the Shia community. Traffic diversion details:

The diversions will be in place from Kotla Alijah to Darulshifa and inner roads.

The vehicular traffic coming from Chaderghat to SJ rotary will not be allowed towards Mirchowk main road and will be diverted towards Nayapool at SJ rotary. Traffic coming

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from Talabkatta and Bhavani Nagar will not be allowed towards Etebar Chowk, Bibi Bazar and Alijah Kotla and will be diverted towards Hafeez-Danka Mosque.

Traffic coming from Chattabazar towards APAT will not be allowed and will be diverted towards Madina.

IMPACT ANALYSIS: Longer than usual travel time should be expected between 12 pm and 7 pm today

(30 October) in the old city of Hyderabad. The police could been put on alert to ensure there is no law and order problem. Cater for travel disruptions today due to the restriction that has been put in place. Back to Top

National: Air quality remains hazardous in Delhi-NCR; Hyderabad air becomes unhealthy for its citizens Delhi: Delhi, yesterday (29 October), continued to witness 'very poor' air quality as the city woke up to a thick, pale haze. According to the data by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), the air quality index (AQI) in the national capital was recorded at an alarming 348. Weather conditions over the next few days, to an extent, are expected to play an important role in deciding which way the city's pollution will go. Hyderabad: With particulate matter (PM) 2.5 crossing the permissible level in Sanathnagar area, the air quality in the city and its outskirts is officially termed ‘unhealthy’. The instantaneous levels show the average as 47 ug/m3 of particulate matter 2.5 and the average shows as 62.0 PH ug/m3. The instantaneous level of 47 ug/m3 has been recorded regularly since last three years stated sources as soon as the winter sets in Hyderabad city. Background: The AQI between 0 to 50 is considered good, 51 and 100 fall under the category of 'satisfactory', 101-200 is marked as 'moderate', 201 to 300 'poor', 301 to 400 'very poor' and 500 and beyond is considered as 'severe'. Health experts say the 'very poor' air quality can lead to respiratory illness, especially among children and elderly people, on prolonged exposure. Current Regulations: The CPCB-led task force recommended the public to avoid strenuous outdoor activities and minimise the use of private vehicles to reduce exposure to toxic air. The task force also gave recommendations to the Supreme Court-appointed Environment Pollution Control Authority to deal with the deteriorating air quality. The task force also recommended closure of all construction activities involving excavation, civil construction, stone crushers, hot mix plants that generate dust pollution between 01-10 November. Other measures included the shutdown of coal and biomass-based industries (excluding thermal and waste-to-energy plants) from 04-10 November, intensification of efforts by transport department to check polluting vehicles and controlling traffic congestion in Delhi-NCR between November 1 and 10. RECOMMENDATIONS:

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· Severe pollution has been reported in Anand Vihar, Dwarka Sector 8, Narela, Punjabi Bagh, Bawana, Mundaka, Vivek Vihar and Rohini areas of Delhi and Ghaziabad in NCR region and Sanat Nagar area in Hyderabad, Telangana. Advised to take adequate precautionary measures if commuting in the vicinity.

· Air pollutants such as particulate matter trigger allergies, cough, lung infections, heart disease and even irreversible lung damage.

· Dust pollution has been uncharacteristically high this summer, which has recorded several storms.

Precautions: · Individuals especially with heart or lung diseases, elders and children should avoid

prolonged exposure to pollution or heavy exertion. · Reduce or limit physical activity while in highly polluted areas such as busy roads,

industrialized areas and residential neighbourhoods on winter nights. · Use portable or central air cleaning systems which can reduce concentration of

indoor air pollutants. · Check the Air Quality Index of your area regularly to be updated on the pollution index. · Keep a healthy diet and increase fluid intake to help improve immunity

against air pollution related diseases. · Use carpooling and public transport, where possible. Back to Top

National: Hindu Mahasabha threatens to protest if Ram Temple ordinance not brought in 30 days

According to reports, upset over the adjournment in the Ayodhya title suit case, Swami Chakrapani threatened that the Hindu Mahasabha would stage a protest against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) if an ordinance is not brought by the government on the issue of Ram Temple within 30 days. HISTORIC ANALYSIS: Asserting that it is a betrayal of Hindus, Chakrapani stated that in 2014 the Hindu Mahasabha supported the BJP on condition that Ram Mandir will be constructed, there would be laws for Gau Raksha, and Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir would be revoked. However, no ordinance was passed by the BJP despite having majority in lower house. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court yesterday (29 October) adjourned the Ayodhya title suit till January 2019 to fix the date of hearing in the matter. Further, the top court adjourned the matter which challenged the Allahabad High Court ruling of 2010, which had ordered division of the disputed land in Ayodhya into three parts for each of the parties the Sunni Waqf Board, the Nirmohi Akhara and Ram Lalla. IMPACT ANALYSIS:

Events, rallies, protests and demonstrations can be expected by the Hindu Mahasabha if the ordinance is not passed. Advised to monitor the developments closely and plan business schedules accordingly.

If the situation gains momentum, other right wing groups may also join the protest.

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Due to the sensitivity of the issue, agitations can be anticipated and sporadic altercations are a possibility in some areas of the country. Advised to take necessary precautionary measures.

The situation is still developing. Wait and watch approach needs to be taken to assess the full impact.

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ASIA-PACIFIC SNAPSHOT

Bangladesh: BNP to stage demonstrations in cities today (30 October)

BNP will stage demonstrations in all metropolitan cities and district towns today (30 October), protesting a Dhaka court verdict which awarded the party's Chairperson Khaleda Zia seven years of rigorous imprisonment. BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir alleged that the government's wish and the ministers' remarks about the case have been reflected in the verdict. Fakhrul questioned the validity of the verdict, as it was given in absence of an ailing Khaleda Zia. Location: Dhaka and other metropolitan cities and district towns. IMPACT ANALYSIS:

Cater for significant travel delays. Advised to remain vigilant, as demonstrations could

continue for the several days.

Previous protests in Bangladesh have turned violent, resulting in traffic disruptions, injuries, and deaths. Participants are known to throw rocks and debris. Security forces are known to use tear gas and other crowd control measures against demonstrators, including firearms with rubber bullets. Advised to plan accordingly.

Cater for increased security during the demonstration in Bangladesh.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

Monitor local news to stay updated on all latest information.

Expect heavier than normal traffic congestion throughout the day.

Avoid large crowds and protests.

Be aware of your surroundings at all times.

Exercise caution if in the vicinity of any large gatherings, protests, or demonstrations. Back to Top

Bangladesh: Businesses hit hard by transport strike; Workers threaten longer strike in November Businesses incurred massive losses following the two-day countrywide transport strike that almost stalled the mobility of workers and goods. Details:

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The most affected sector is the garment sector with production in the factories

being halted as workers could not join their workplaces.

Transportation of exportable goods from Dhaka to Chattogram port was also

affected as not a single truck was allowed to carry goods over the last two days.

Some 12,000 to 15,000 goods-laden trucks or covered vans ply between Dhaka and

Chattogram port every day, of those, 80 percent are engaged in carrying either

export or imported textile and apparel items.

The airfares from Bangladesh to the US were much higher than in Europe, with

export prices of T-shirts reaching $4 to $5, which is almost the level of airfare of a

kg of garment items.

Meanwhile, hours before the end of their Bangladesh-wide strike, transport workers’ leader Osman Ali has said they will go on longer strikes in November if their demands remained unmet. Background: The transporters started the 48-hour strike at 6am on Sunday (28 October) over a raft of demands, including cancellation of maximum Tk 500,000 fines for drivers involved in road traffic accidents in a recently passed law. The strike crippled the country and caused immense public inconvenience. ANALYSIS: If the transport workers demands are not meet within 21 days, they are likely to enforce a 96-hour strike. They will submit the notice to the road transport and bridges ministry on 03 November, according to reports. On Sunday, roads minister Obaidul Quader urged the protesters to call the strike off, saying it would not be possible to change the law before the next parliament session. Parliament is not going to convene before the general elections scheduled by the end of this year or early next year. Therefore the standoff is likely to continue, it is advised to monitor local news to stay updated on latest developments. Back to Top

Bangladesh: Kushtia bypass opens today (30 October) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is expected to open the long-desired Kushtia town bypass to traffic today (30 October) through a video conference. ANALYSIS: The 6.60km road which will run from Bottail to Barkhada. Construction work of the road began in 2016. At least 55.16 acres of land at six villages in Kushtia Sadar upazila were requisitioned for the purpose. Two PC bridges and 20 culverts have also been built along the road which would relieve Kushtia town of heavy traffic congestion due to the Kushtia-Khulna highway that goes through the heart of the town.

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This highway is currently the only road link between the southwestern and northern regions. The people of the southwest and the northern regions would be benefited by the bypass. Back to Top

Nepal: Bhimdatta Municipality locals resume protest

Civil Struggle Committee today (30 October) resumed its protest, demanding the arrest of culprits involved in the rape and subsequent murder of Nirmala Panta, 13, of Bhimdatta Municipality in Kanchanpur.

The struggle committee had halted protests during Dashain. Earlier, Rights activists and victim’s family members staged a rally, demanding immediate arrest of the culprits. The rally that started from Mahendranagar’s Madanchowk had reached the District Administration Office, Kanchanpur. The protesters then submitted a memorandum to Chief District Officer Taranath Adhikari. They had submitted the memorandum with an ultimatum to the prime minister to ensure the arrest of culprits as soon as possible.

ANALYSIS:

Further, they threatened to launch stern agitation if the culprits were not booked soon. Today’s protest was peaceful, however it is advised to stay away from any large gathering to avoid incidental risks. Sporadic protests in the comings days cannot be ruled out.

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Sri Lanka: Warnings of possible volatility in Sri Lanka after President sacks Prime Minister Sri Lanka's President has sworn in a new Cabinet despite a warning by Parliament's Speaker of possible volatility if MPs are not summoned immediately to resolve a deepening political crisis, after the President sacked the Prime Minister. Background: President Maithripala Sirisena dismissed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his Cabinet on Friday (26 October), replacing him with strongman former leader Mahinda Rajapaksa. Mr Sirisena later suspended Parliament in an apparent move to give Mr Rajapaksa time to muster enough support to survive any no-confidence vote, and followed this by swearing in 12 Cabinet ministers, one state minister and a deputy minister. The rest of the ministers will be appointed later, according to a presidential spokesman. Details: The moves have triggered a power struggle and some observers say it has created a constitutional crisis. Two people died and one was wounded in a shooting on Sunday (28 October) at the Petroleum Ministry, the first violence related to the political turmoil. Police arrested Mr Ranatunga, a cricketer-turned politician, in connection with the shooting and later released him on bail, state television said. His security guard was arrested on Sunday. Police are investigating the reports, but no arrests have been made.

ANALYSIS:

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In April, Mr Wickremesinghe had survived a no-confidence motion in Parliament brought by supporters of Mr Rajapaksa, a divisive figure who brought Sri Lanka's 25-year civil war to a bloody end in 2009. Meanwhile, Rajapaksa supporters have demanded that Mr Wickremesinghe vacate his official residence or face forced eviction. Tensions had been building between the President and the Prime Minister — who come from different sides of the political spectrum — over economic reforms.

IMPACT ANALYSIS:

Political aggression can be expected in Sri Lanka in the coming days, especially in Colombo. Areas in Colombo like Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte, Galle Main Road, Ward Place, Battaramulla, Parliament Grounds and Lotus Road, are likely to witness additional security measures due to the political turmoil.

The presence of security personnel in public places is expected to increase in order to maintain peace.

Frequent checks and possible agitations will likely lead to delays in commute in Sri Lanka.

If the situation continues, it could result in a breakdown in law and order across the country.

The Rajapaksa government was earlier accused of corruption and intimidating political opponents, thus political parties are likely to announce protests and rallies against the move.

The situation could become volatile if demonstrators take to the streets.

RECOMMENDATION:

Cater for sporadic altercations across Sri Lanka due to existing political situation.

Heavy security measures can be expected, advised to carry valid ID proof at all times.

Refrain from being vocal or from posting any strong sentiments on social media platforms.

Stay away from large crowds and take additional precautionary measures especially near vital government installations.

Coordinate with local law enforcement agencies for any travel plans / employee movement till situation normalises completely.

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Pakistan: Mobile phone services to remain suspended today (30 October)

Mobile phone services will remain suspended in various cities across the country today (30 October) on account of Chehlum of Hazrat Imam Hussain (R.A). The interior ministry has approved closure of mobile and internet services in all cities excluding Islamabad of the country. The mobile and internet service will remain suspended owing to security concerns on the Chehlum of Hazrat Imam Hussain (R.A). Mobile and Internet services will not be suspended in Islamabad, the ministry said.

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IMPACT ANALYSIS:

The mobile and internet service will remain suspended in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Khairpur, Jaccobabad, Shikarpur, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Jehlum, Sargodha, Sialkot, Gujrat, Narowal, Multan, Sahiwal, Rahimyar Khan, Okara, Pak Patan and others.

Mobile and Internet services will not be suspended in Islamabad. However, in case of any incident or emergency, mobile phone companies may be directed to restore the facility immediately on request of the Sindh home department.

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