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India Solar Market Update – Q3 2017
Executive Summary
www.mercomindia.com
www.mercomindia.com
India Solar Demand Forecast
• Total solar installations in Q3 2017 came to 2,247 MW,
which were up 300 MW compared to Q2 when 1,947 MW
were installed. In the first nine months of 2017 over 7.1 GW
of solar installations were added.
• Mercom is forecasting calendar year (CY) 2017 solar
installations in the range of 9.5 to 10 GW.
• The pipeline of utility-scale projects is currently at about 11.5
GW and another 5.6 GW of tenders are pending auction.
• A total of 1,456 MW of solar were tendered and 1,232 MW of
solar were auctioned in Q3 2017, down from Q2 2017 when
3,408 MW of solar were tendered and 2,505 MW of solar
were auctioned.
• The lowest bid quoted in Q3 2017 was ₹2.65
(~$0.0408)/kWh in the recently held Gujarat Urja Vikas
Nigam Limited (GUVNL) 500 MW solar auction.
• Renewables comprise almost 19 percent of India's total
installed capacity with solar accounting for over 5 percent.
Among renewables, solar accounts for over 27 percent of
the installed capacity.
• Cumulative solar rooftop installations in India totaled 1,345
MW at the end of Q3 2017
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Cu
mu
lati
ve In
stal
lati
on
s (M
W)
An
nu
al In
stal
lati
on
s (M
W)
Annual Rooftop Solar Installations (MW)
Annual Utility-scale Solar Installations (MW)
Cumulative Solar Installations (MW)
Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)
India Solar Demand Forecast (MW)
www.mercomindia.com
All India Cumulative Utility-Scale Solar Installations by Policy Type
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
All India Cumulative Utility-scale Solar Installations By Policy Type (MW)
Cumulative Large-Scale Solar Installations ~15.7 GW
Source: Mercom Capital Group (Dec 2016) Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)
www.mercomindia.com
Quarterly Solar Installations in 2017
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17
Rooftop Solar
Utility-Scale
Solar Installation in 2017 by Quarter (MW)
Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)
2,955
1,947
2,247
• Total solar installations in Q3 2017 totaled 2,247 MW, up
300 MW compared to Q2, when 1,947 MW were installed.
In the first nine months of 2017 over 7.1 GW of solar
installations were added.
• Utility-scale solar installations quarter-over-quarter were up
by almost 15 percent.
• Installed rooftop solar in the third quarter was up by
approximately 18 percent compared to the second quarter
of 2017.
• The first quarter of 2017 was the strongest in terms of total
installed capacity, largely due to few projects that were
slated to be commissioned in 2016 but were connected in
Q1 2017.
Click here for the list of projects announced and commissioned in
the third quarter of 2017
www.mercomindia.com
Policy Updates
Policy Updates:
Over 4.1 GW of solar projects have been commissioned under various phases of the
Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) so far: Migration program (PV -
48 MW and CSP – 2.5 MW), Phase I Batch 1 (PV – 140 MW and CSP – 200 MW),
Phase I Batch 2 (PV – 330 MW), Phase II Batch 1 (PV – 680 MW), Phase II Batch 2
(PV – 1,780 MW), and other programs.
JNNSM - Phase II Batch 2 State Specific Bundling Program (NTPC)
The MNRE has specified 3,000 MW of PV projects under this program, implemented
by NTPC through open competitive bidding. These projects are spread across states
including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh.
JNNSM - Phase II Batch 3 (SECI)
Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has called for tenders amounting to 2,510
MW under JNNSM Phase II Batch 3 - State Specific VGF Program.
JNNSM - Phase II Batch 4 (SECI)
Under this program 5,000 MW of grid-connected solar PV projects on a build, own
and operate basis with VGF benefits are to be developed. Tenders for 3,650 MW
projects under this program have been issued, out of which 1,000 MW tenders were
cancelled by SECI.
JNNSM - Phase II Batch 5 (SECI – CPSU)
This batch aims to set up 1 GW of grid-connected solar PV power projects for
Central Public Sector Undertakings (CPSUs) and Government of India organizations
for either self-use or sale to third-parties or merchants.
0
6,000
12,000
18,000
In-Operation Under Development Tendered
India: Utility-Scale Solar Projects by Status (MW)
Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)
www.mercomindia.com
Solar Tender and Auction Activity
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017
India Solar Tenders and Auctions by Quarter (MW) Tenders Auctions
Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)
www.mercomindia.com
Average Solar Module Price Trends in India
• Chinese solar module ASPs increased by 14 percent in Q3
compared to the second quarter of 2017.
• During the same period in 2016, Chinese module prices
actually dropped by 14 percent.
• Price quotes for Chinese modules in India ranged from $0.30
(~₹19.4)/W to $0.38 (~₹24.6)/W based on order size and other
parameters.
• Module prices in the third quarter were almost 20 percent more
than what developers had expected. This highlights a huge gap
between module price forecasts and the reality of rising prices.
• Although there was a rise in polysilicon and wafer prices in the
third quarter, heightened Chinese installation activity is the
primary underlying factor dictating module price trends.
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17
Indian Module ASP ($/W)
Chinese Modules ($/W)
Chinese and Indian Module ASPs Q3 2017
Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)
www.mercomindia.com
Bidding Trends in Reverse Auctions
2.65
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
NSM
PI B
1 (
Mah
)
NSM
PI B
2 (
Raj
)
Od
ish
a B
1
Kar
nat
aka
PI
MP
PI
Od
ish
a B
2
Ch
hat
tisg
arh
Kar
nat
aka
PII
MP
PII
Pu
nja
b P
I (C
1)
Pu
nja
b P
I (C
2)
Raj
asth
an
UP
B1
AP
PII
Bih
ar
Kar
nat
aka
PII
I
Tela
nga
na
PI
Utt
arkh
and
UP
B2
Kar
nat
aka
PIV
-No
v 14
MP
PII
I-Ju
l 15
Pu
nja
b P
II (
C1)
-Feb
15
Pu
nja
b P
II (
C2)
-Feb
15
Pu
nja
b P
II (
C3)
-Feb
15
Tela
nga
na
PII
G1-
Au
g 1
5
Tela
nga
na
PII
G2-
Au
g 1
5
UP
B3
-Sep
15
Pu
nja
b P
III-
Sep
15
Utt
arkh
and
(Ty
pe-
I)-N
ov
15
NSM
PII
B2
(AP
)-N
ov
15
NSM
PII
B2
(AP
)-D
ec 1
5
NSM
PII
B2
(Raj
)-Ja
n 1
6
NSM
PII
B2
(UP
)-Ja
n 1
6
Har
yan
a-Ja
n 1
6
NSM
PII
B2
(Kar
)-A
pr
16
NSM
PII
B2
(Tel
anga
na)
-May
16
Jhar
khan
d-M
ay 1
6
Kar
nat
aka
P-V
(G
en)-
May
16
NSM
PII
B2
(Raj
)-Ju
l 16
Rew
a So
lar
Pro
ject
(M
P)
- Fe
b 1
7
NSM
PII
B2,
Kad
apa
(AP
) -
Ap
r 1
7
NSM
PII
B4,
Bh
adla
P4
(R
aj)
- M
ay 1
7
NSM
PII
B4,
Bh
adla
P3
(R
aj)
- M
ay 1
7
GU
VN
L (G
uj)
- S
ep 1
7
2010-11
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Low
Tar
iff/
Bid
s (₹
/kW
h)
Low Tariff (₹/kWh)
Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)
Note: AP Phase II - The range of first-year tariff offered by the successful bidders was Rs.5.25-5.99/kWh with a 3% per annum escalation for the first 10 years, then flat thereafter. MP: Rewa Ultra Mega Solar project - low bid of Rs.2.97/kWh tariff escalating at Rs.0.05/kWh for 15 years. Levelized tariff comes to Rs. 3.30/kWh.
Lowest Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India (₹/kWh) Q3
2017
www.mercomindia.com
Our quarterly report includes market share rankings
• Top Utility-scale Project Developers with Installed Capacity
• Top Utility-scale Project Developers with Under-development Pipeline
• Top Solar Inverter Suppliers in India
• Top Solar Rooftop Developers
• Top Solar Module Manufacturer in India
• Top Solar Cell Manufacturers in India
• Top Utility-scale EPC Players with Commissioned Capacity
• Top Utility-scale Third Party EPC Players with Commissioned Capacity
• Top Solar Module Suppliers in India
Complete Market Share Analysis and Rankings for Each Category Available in Our Full Report.
Some of the
market leaders:
Market Leaders
www.mercomindia.com
State Policies
Updates: To facilitate the large-scale grid
integration of solar and wind power while
maintaining grid stability, the Andhra Pradesh
Electricity Regulatory Commission (APERC)
released new regulations for the forecasting,
scheduling, and deviation settlement of solar
and wind generation.
Updates: The Madhya Pradesh Electricity
Regulatory Commission (MPERC) has
proposed the application of scheduling and
merit order dispatch principles to energy
generation from co-generating and renewable
energy generating units from time to time,
implying that it wants to end the must-run
status of renewables.
Updates: The Jharkhand Renewable Energy
Development Agency (JREDA) issued a
tender to develop 1,200 MW of solar projects
in December 2015. In Q3 2017, JREDA
issued assurances that it would sign PPAs for
a total of 685 MW of solar projects out of the
1.1 GW for which LOIs were initially issued.
Updates: The HERC released a discussion
paper on HERC (Terms and Conditions for
the Determination of Tariff from Renewable
Energy Sources, Renewable Purchase
Obligation (RPO), and Renewable Energy
Certificate (REC)) Regulations 2017. In the
draft, the HERC determined the useful life of
25 years for a solar project.
Andhra Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Jharkhand
Haryana
Complete state by state updates are covered in our full report
State Ranking Based on Total Installed Utility-Scale Solar as of Sep 2017
The top three states which, now have over 2 GW of installed solar capacity, represent approximately 43 percent of the total installed capacity in the country
1
Total Installations - 2,479 MW Total Installations - 2,195 MW Total Installations - 2,089 MW Total Installations - 1,797 MW Total Installations - 1,648 MW
Total Installations - 1,291 MW Total Installations - 1,273 MW Total Installations - 792 MW Total Installations - 753 MW Total Installations - 618 MW
Top 10 Solar States in India
Telangana Andhra Pradesh Rajasthan
Data from Mercom's India Solar Project Tracker
Tamil Nadu
Gujarat Madhya Pradeh Punjab Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh
Karnataka1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9
15.7 GWCumulative Solar Capacity
2 GWSolar Installations Q3 2017
11
www.mercomindia.com
India Solar Market Update – Q3 2017
Mercom India’s India Solar Market Update provides you with the most comprehensive report on the Indian solar sector. The report, a first-of-its-kind, delivers high-quality research and analysis, facts and figures, and forecasts for global solar professionals. Primary data for the report is directly collected from government agencies, developers, investors, manufacturers, installers and other industry stakeholders. The report offers details on prevailing market conditions, issues and challenges, opportunities, and the outlook for India’s solar industry.
Who Needs to Purchase this Report? • Project Developers • Component Manufacturers • Utility/IPPs
• EPC Provider • BOS Suppliers • Investment Firms/Funds
• Investors, Banks and Financial Institutions • Installers • Foreign Entrants
The report includes: • Quarterly and YTD Installations • Forecasts • Updates on Tenders and Auctions • Policy Updates and Analysis • State-by-State Installations and
Module Prices • Tariffs • Project Costs • Imports/Export Activity • Solar Power Generation • Market Share and Rankings • Quarterly Survey of Solar Supply
Chain • Other Important Updates
Click here for more information or to purchase a copy of India Solar Market Update – Q3 2017
www.mercomindia.com
Disclaimer/Copyright
- 13 -
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