12
Annual Report Analysis FY19 Contributor to Clean Energy Growing environmental concerns and imminent threats to the ecosystem have compelled the world to identify opportunities for developing clean energy. IGL recognizes the need to capitalize on shifting preferences for cleaner sources of energy and aspires to responsibly deliver natural gas to transport, domestic, commercial and industrial customer base. Equipped with the resources to fulfill the rising demand of natural gas, IGL plan to further strengthen their infrastructure and expand its network to promote clean energy and harness a sustainable future. After completion of the 10 th round of bidding by PNGRB, 70% of country’s population and 50% of its total area have been covered under CGD network. DART View We are positive on the long term volume growth of the stock with sales going down in FY21 before returning to normal levels in FY22. With the expectation of further reduction in input cost from Oct’20, we expect margins to sustain with marginal expansion of spreads, profit growth trajectory will get stronger in longer run. Volume growth trajectory is the key monitorable and we expect that IGL has strong volume growth drivers in place. With volume growth outlook looking good driven by new areas and increase in volume potential of existing regions and confirmed availability of domestic gas for CNG and Domestic PNG segment, we believe that profitability growth can be in double digits from H2FY21 onwards. However, there can be some negativity around the stock till the common carrier policy is finalised. Maintain Accumulate with a target prices of Rs 437, as most of the positives in the stock are factored in. Industry Overview The current consumption of Natural gas comprises around 50% of domestic output and the remaining consumption is met through imports. There has been an increased dependence on imports over the years. The government has taken steps to increase indigenous production, creating pipeline infrastructure throughout the country and increasing the capacity of LNG terminals. These measures coupled with the start of Gas Exchange and envisaged revision in transport tariff policy are likely to add growth in the industry and transform India into a vibrant gas market. MD&A Overview IGL is one of the CGD companies of the country catering to more than 1.1 million CNG vehicles, 1.4 million domestic PNG customers and over 5,500 commercial & industrial customers. Augmented its infrastructure by adding 55 new CNG stations and around 1,600 kms of pipeline network. During FY20, they provided more than 2.72 lacs new PNG domestic connections and added around 1,300 new commercial and industrial customers. Besides increasing its customer base in existing areas, it has made plans to roll out CGD network in new geographical areas at a fast pace for growth. Recently, IGL has started sales in new areas of Kanpur and Kaithal. They are also looking for inorganic growth by acquiring stakes in other CGD companies. It is setting up, in association with Indian Oil Corporation, a H-CNG station as a pilot project, first of its kind in India. They have plans to promote the usage of gas in home appliances in households, to start mobile CNG dispensing facilities and to provide charging facilities for e-vehicles. As a backward integration, IGL has a plan to set up a gas meter manufacturing unit in India. Plans to spend a capex of Rs. 13,700 million in FY21. CMP Rs 398 Target / Upside Rs 437 / 10% BSE Sensex 38,506 NSE Nifty 11,334 Scrip Details Equity / FV Rs 1,400mn / Rs 2 Market Cap Rs 278bn US$ 4bn 52-week High/Low Rs 534/Rs 284 Avg. Volume (no) 41,03,240 NSE Symbol IGL Bloomberg Code IGL IN Shareholding Pattern Jun'20(%) Promoters 45.0 MF/Banks/FIs 17.2 FIIs 21.4 Public / Others 16.5 Company Relative to Sensex AVP Research: Nidhi Doshi Tel: +91 22 40969795 E-mail: [email protected] DTP: Rajesh Shinde Tel: 9892197446 E-mail: [email protected] 90 110 130 150 170 190 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 IGL SENSEX Indraprastha Gas Accumulate September 08, 2020

Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

An

nu

al

Re

po

rt A

na

lysi

s FY

19

Contributor to Clean Energy Growing environmental concerns and imminent threats to the ecosystem have compelled the world to identify opportunities for developing clean energy. IGL recognizes the need to capitalize on shifting preferences for cleaner sources of energy and aspires to responsibly deliver natural gas to transport, domestic, commercial and industrial customer base. Equipped with the resources to fulfill the rising demand of natural gas, IGL plan to further strengthen their infrastructure and expand its network to promote clean energy and harness a sustainable future. After completion of the 10th round of bidding by PNGRB, 70% of country’s population and 50% of its total area have been covered under CGD network.

DART View We are positive on the long term volume growth of the stock with sales going down in FY21 before returning to normal levels in FY22. With the expectation of further reduction in input cost from Oct’20, we expect margins to sustain with marginal expansion of spreads, profit growth trajectory will get stronger in longer run. Volume growth trajectory is the key monitorable and we expect that IGL has strong volume growth drivers in place. With volume growth outlook looking good driven by new areas and increase in volume potential of existing regions and confirmed availability of domestic gas for CNG and Domestic PNG segment, we believe that profitability growth can be in double digits from H2FY21 onwards. However, there can be some negativity around the stock till the common carrier policy is finalised. Maintain Accumulate with a target prices of Rs 437, as most of the positives in the stock are factored in.

Industry Overview The current consumption of Natural gas comprises around 50% of domestic output and the remaining consumption is met through imports. There has been an increased dependence on imports over the years. The government has taken steps to increase indigenous production, creating pipeline infrastructure throughout the country and increasing the capacity of LNG terminals. These measures coupled with the start of Gas Exchange and envisaged revision in transport tariff policy are likely to add growth in the industry and transform India into a vibrant gas market.

MD&A Overview IGL is one of the CGD companies of the country catering to more than 1.1 million CNG vehicles, 1.4 million domestic PNG customers and over 5,500 commercial & industrial customers. Augmented its infrastructure by adding 55 new CNG stations and around 1,600 kms of pipeline network. During FY20, they provided more than 2.72 lacs new PNG domestic connections and added around 1,300 new commercial and industrial customers. Besides increasing its customer base in existing areas, it has made plans to roll out CGD network in new geographical areas at a fast pace for growth. Recently, IGL has started sales in new areas of Kanpur and Kaithal. They are also looking for inorganic growth by acquiring stakes in other CGD companies. It is setting up, in association with Indian Oil Corporation, a H-CNG station as a pilot project, first of its kind in India. They have plans to promote the usage of gas in home appliances in households, to start mobile CNG dispensing facilities and to provide charging facilities for e-vehicles. As a backward integration, IGL has a plan to set up a gas meter manufacturing unit in India. Plans to spend a capex of Rs. 13,700 million in FY21.

CMP Rs 398

Target / Upside Rs 437 / 10%

BSE Sensex 38,506

NSE Nifty 11,334

Scrip Details

Equity / FV Rs 1,400mn / Rs 2

Market Cap Rs 278bn

US$ 4bn

52-week High/Low Rs 534/Rs 284

Avg. Volume (no) 41,03,240

NSE Symbol IGL

Bloomberg Code IGL IN

Shareholding Pattern Jun'20(%)

Promoters 45.0

MF/Banks/FIs 17.2

FIIs 21.4

Public / Others 16.5

Company Relative to Sensex

AVP Research: Nidhi Doshi Tel: +91 22 40969795

E-mail: [email protected]

DTP: Rajesh Shinde Tel: 9892197446

E-mail: [email protected]

90

110

130

150

170

190

Sep-1

9

Oct-19

Nov-

19

Dec-

19

Jan-2

0

Feb

-20

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-

20

Jun-2

0

Jul-20

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

IGL SENSEX

Indraprastha Gas

Accumulate

September 08, 2020

Page 2: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 2

Financial Snapshot: Net sales grew by 12.4% from Rs. 57.4 billion in FY19 to Rs. 64.5 billion in FY20. EBITDA increased for FY20 at Rs. 15.2 billion while cost of raw materials increased to Rs. 36.8 billion. The Company achieved a PBT of Rs. 14.2 billion which grew by 18% as compared to the previous year. The increase in profits for IGL is primarily driven due reduction in corporate tax rates. Achieved a PAT for Rs. 11.4 billion which was a growth of 44.5% YoY. As on 31st March, 2020, IGL is a debt free company. The directors have recommended a dividend of 140% i.e. Rs. 2.8/share for FY20.

Annual Report Macro View

Key Management Change Shri A. K. Jana, nominee of Gail (India) Limited, was appointed as the Managing Director of the Company in place of Shri E.S. Ranganathan w.e.f. June 16, 2020.

Board of Directo

Shri P. K. Gupta, nominee of Gail (India) Limited (GAIL), was appointed as a Chairman w.e.f. July 01, 2020 and Shri Gajendra Singh ceased to be Director of the Company. Smt. Manisha Saxena, nominee of Govt. of NCT of Delhi, was appointed as an Additional Director of the Company in place of Smt. Renu Sharma w.e.f. July 21, 2020. Smt. Renu Sharma, nominee of Govt. of NCT of Delhi, was appointed as an Additional Director of the Company in place of Shri Rajeev Verma w.e.f. December 1, 2019.

Auditors No Change. M/s Walker Chandiok & Co. LLP continue to be the auditors of the company.

Pledged Shares No pledged shares were held during the year.

Credit Ratings

Ratings FY2020 FY2019

Domestic Rating

Credit Rating of AAA (non-fund based limit-long term) from ICRA, and A1+ (short term) from ICRA.

Credit Rating of AAA (non-fund based limit- long term) from ICRA, and A1+ (short term) from ICRA.

Insider Holdings There were no insider holdings during the year.

Macroeconomic Factor

India is the third largest energy consumer in the world in spite of having very low per capita consumption, leaving past countries like Japan, Germany and the UK behind. Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuels among the available fossil fuels. However, Natural gas currently makes up only 6.2% of all energy consumed in the country. Gas as clean fuel has been given a top priority and Indian Government wants to make the Indian economy as a gas-based economy. In this regard, the government is targeting its share to rise to 15% by 2030.

Key Holders

Category of Shareholder (%) FY2020 FY2019

A) Promoter Holding 45.00 45.00

B) Public

i) Mutual Funds/UTI 7.52 7.85

ii) Banks/Financial Institutions 0.15 1.14

iii) Central Govt./State Govt./POI 5.00 5.00

iv) Insurance Companies 9.08 9.03

v)FII’s 22.77 21.08

vi) Non-Institutions 10.48 10.89

Total 100.00 100.00

Source: Company, DART

Page 3: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 3

What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well as inorganic growth as part of its

corporate strategy.

The matter of taking over the entire CGD activities in Gurugram district from Haryana City Gas Distribution Pvt. Ltd. is sub-judice in the Hon’ble Supreme court of India.

DTC and DIMTS have plans to add 1000 and 400 new CNG buses respectively in their fleet which would add to CNG sales.

With the spread of CNG in new geographical areas, car manufacturers are coming out with new CNG variants cars.

IGL is participating substantially under SATAT initiative of MoPNG by issuing Letter of Intent(s) to facilitate waste management and promote use of Bio-Gas.

IGL is also collaborating with IOCL to set up a pilot project of HCNG station at Rajghat for DTC buses.

To promote inter-city public transport, IGL has recently launched Type IV cylinder long-haul buses.

In the coming years, it is expected that other State Pollution Control Boards mainly in NCR would also mandate use of PNG by Industrial Customers in line with DPCC direction, thereby giving further boost to Natural Gas volumes.

IGL is also looking for expanding its operation through merger or acquisition of stakes in other CGD Companies in the country.

Associate Companies

Central U. P. Gas Limited (CUGL)

CUGL is engaged in City Gas Distribution in the cities of Kanpur, Bareilly, Jhansi and Unnao in Uttar Pradesh.

IGL holds 50% of the paid-up equity share capital of CUGL.

CUGL achieved a gross turnover of Rs. 3,453.3 million and Profit After Tax of Rs. 736.4 million for FY20

Maharashtra Natural Gas Limited (MNGL)

MNGL is in City Gas Distribution business in Pune, Pimpri, Chinchwad, Chakan, Talegaon and Hinjewadi, Nasik GA (Nasik, Dhule & part of Valsad), Sindhudurg GA in the state of Maharashtra and Ramanagara GA in the state of Karnataka.

IGL holds 50% of paid-up equity share capital of MNGL.

MNGL achieved a gross turnover of Rs. 10,744.5 million and Profit After Tax of Rs. 2,233.3 million for FY20.

Page 4: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 4

Key Highlights from MD&A

Trend of Natural Gas Consumption in India (MMSCM)

Source: Company, DART

City Gas Distribution Sector in India

CGD networks are being expanded with coverage of around 70% population and 50% area of the country till 10th round of bidding by PNGRB with massive investment plans.

The government has also taken up initiatives for the expansion of the city gas networks, by opening ‘Make in India’ market for ancillary equipment needed for piped natural gas to households and refuelling CNG vehicles.

The expansion of CNG and PNG services will also create huge employment opportunities in this sector.

Additionally, the PNGRB has proposed 44 new geographical areas for the upcoming 11th round of bidding for CGD. The aim is to make environment friendly fuel i.e. CNG/PNG available to public at large.

Compressed Natural Gas Business

During FY20, IGL showed growth of 8.4% in CNG business besides augmenting its CNG infrastructure in Delhi and NCR and have 555 CNG stations.

IGL has 555 stations through which it provided gas to 11.45 lakh vehicles, with an average sale of 33.67 lakh kg per day in FY20.

They had introduced prepaid card for its CNG customers in order to promote digital payments.

They have conducted joint promotion activities with Maruti, Bajaj, Mahindra, Ford and Hyundai at the CNG stations.

21,388 24,849 27,439 28,740 33,867

31,129 30,848 31,731 32,058 30,257

40.744.6 46.4 47.3

52.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

LNG Import Net Production Import Dependency (%)

Page 5: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 5

Piped Natural Gas Business

PNG - Domestic Connections

PNG continued to be focus area of the Company during FY20, with more than 2.72 Lakhs new connections provided.

They increased their steel pipeline network from 1,006 kms in FY19 to 1,150 kms in FY20 and its MDPE network from 12,022 kms in FY19 to 13,455 kms in FY20.

They have total 13.74 Lakh connections in Delhi & other geographical areas as on March 31, 2020.

They have taken many new initiatives such as digital marketing, 360-degree PNG publicity drive including launch of Mobile Promotional Vehicle & increasing customer contact channels through Mobile App, QR Code, IGL Website etc., and successfully running many attractive customer schemes to increase the PNG customer base.

PNG – Commercial & Industrial

During FY20, IGL continued its thrust on the Commercial & Industrial segment which is one of the potential growth areas in the coming years.

Achieved a growth of around 22% in sales volume in Industrial Segment & around 8% in Commercial Segment during FY20.

Industrial customer base increased from 1,770 in FY19 to 2,435 in FY20 and Commercial customer base increased from 2,506 in FY19 to 3,143 in FY20.

In Delhi, DPCC has banned all other industrial fuels except PNG and has advised all industrial customers (wherever PNG is available) to switchover to PNG. IGL has efficiently co-ordinated to implement the mandate given by DPCC by facilitating industrial customer for smooth switchover to PNG supply.

IGL has been able to convert ~90% of Industrial Customers located in NCT of Delhi on to PNG Supply.

In order to curb down air-pollution levels and to increase natural gas volumes, they have targeted diesel Genset segment, wherein PNG would replace use of diesel in Gensets.

With the ban of Furnace Oil (FO) and Petcoke in NCR by Hon’ble Supreme Court, PNG is emerging as the key energy source for Commercial & Industrial users, offering immense opportunities for growth.

To further expand its footprint, IGL has been able to execute Gas Sale Agreements with Industrial Customers in Karnal GA which would facilitate increase in consumption of NG volumes.

Page 6: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 6

Profit and Loss Analysis Sales witnessed a growth of 12.4% YoY, however, some volumes were

impacted due to lockdown in last 10 days of March’20.

EBITDA margin increased by 163 bps from 21.8% in FY19 to 23.4% in FY20, due to cost efficiencies and lower input cost.

Net profit margin increased 388 bps from 13.6% in FY19 to 17.5% in FY20 due to adoption of new tax regime.

Tax amount decreased by 32.5% over the year to Rs. 2.8 billion from Rs. 4.1 billion last year. Effective tax rate for the current year was 19.7% compared to 34.4% in FY19

Interest cost increased significantly. RoANW increased from 19% to 22.5% in FY20

Company has a consistent track-record of dividend payment. The Board of Directors have approved payment of dividend @ 140% on equity share of ₹2 each (` 2.8 per equity share).

There was an increase of 44.5% in AEPS from ̀ 11.2 to ̀ . 16.2, while the CEPS increased by 41% from `. 14.1 to `. 19.8

Balance Sheet Analysis Net Block of Assets increased by 23.6% and capital work in progress

increased by 62.5% because of purchase of fixed assets/CWIP

IGL is a debt free company as on 31st March, 2020.

Investments decreased by 83% from `. 15.4 billion to `. 2.6 billion in the current year because of investments in mutual funds and other companies.

Cash and bank balance increased to `. 21.8 billion from `. 6 billion last year.

Cash Flow Analysis Free cash flow has decreased as cash from operations has increased, due to

decline in working capital.

The Company reported Cash outflow from financing activity of `.2.4 billion compared to an outflow of `. 1.7 billion in FY19.

Ratio Analysis

FY20 FY19

Debtor Turnover Ratio 32.92 25.65

Inventory Turnover Ratio 1,077.25 992.31

Current Ratio 1.39 1.46

OPM % 19.52 18.36

NPM % 17.62 13.71

Return on Networth % 22.45 19.05

Source: Company, DART

Page 7: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 7

Average Sales (mmscmd)

Source: Company, DART

Dividend (%) Return on Networth

Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

Effective Tax Rate (%) EBITDA and PAT Margin (%)

Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

4.01

4.59

5.18

5.916.44

3.13.5

3.94.4

4.7

0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Average Sales per day (mmscmd) CNG segment (mmscmd) PNG segment ( mmscmd)

60

85

100

120

140

50

70

90

110

130

150

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

25,164 29,266 35,129 41,299 50,624

18.2

21.0 20.8 20.6

24.7

16

18

20

22

24

26

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Net Worth RONW (%) - RHS

6,3

85

8,6

07

10

,32

5

12

,00

0

14

,15

7

4,1

91

5,7

11

6,7

08

7,8

67

11

,36

5

34.4 33.635.0 34.4

19.715

20

25

30

35

40

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

PBT PAT Tax Rate (%) - RHS

21.0

25.3 24.6

21.823.4

11.4

15.0 14.813.6

17.5

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

EBITDA Margin PAT Margin

Page 8: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 8

CNG Volume PNG Volume

Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

CNG KPI’s PNG KPI’s

Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

Blended Spread (Rs./scm) EBITDA Spread (Rs./scm)

Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

23344556

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-17

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-18

Ma

r-19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

De

c-19

Ma

r-20

Jun

-20

CNG (% Share) - RHS CNG Volumes (in MMSCMD) - LHS

20

25

30

35

40

45

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-17

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-18

Ma

r-19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

De

c-19

Ma

r-20

Jun

-20

PNG (% Share) - RHS PNG Volumes (in MMSCMD) - LHS

31.8 32.8 34.2 35.1 34.5 35.4 37.4 37.6 38.4 39.3 38.0 38.135.7

11.1 11.1 10.6 11.0 10.3 9.7 10.2 10.6 11.4 11.4 11.5 12.513.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-17

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-18

Ma

r-19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

De

c-19

Ma

r-20

Jun

-20

CNG Realization (Ra / Kg) CNG Spread (Ra /SCM)

23.5 23.3 24.2 26.2 26.528.7 29.9 28.9 27.4 28.2 27.4 27.225.5

11.2 10.9 10.3 10.2 11.8 13.1 13.1 12.9 11.2 11.8 12.2 12.713.5

0

10

20

30

40

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-17

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-18

Ma

r-19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

De

c-19

Ma

r-20

Jun

-20

PNG Realization (Ra / SCM) PNG Spread (Ra /SCM)

11

.14

11

.01

10

.55

11

.33

11

.01

10

.71

10

.98

11

.17

11

.39

11

.49

11

.64

12

.56

10

11

11

12

12

13

13

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-17

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-18

Ma

r-19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

De

c-19

Ma

r-20

6.2

2

5.8

7

5.4

4

6.0

4

5.9

0

5.8

4

5.8

8

5.8

7 6

.30

6.4

9

6.3

6

6.6

4

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-17

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-18

Ma

r-19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

De

c-19

Ma

r-20

Page 9: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 9

Profit and Loss Account

(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

Revenue 57,648 64,853 57,231 71,195

Total Expense 45,079 49,656 44,368 52,343

COGS 33,973 36,794 30,960 36,772

Employees Cost 1,426 1,517 1,533 1,718

Other expenses 9,680 11,346 11,874 13,853

EBIDTA 12,570 15,196 12,863 18,852

Depreciation 2,011 2,523 2,584 3,048

EBIT 10,559 12,674 10,279 15,804

Interest 21 81 26 4

Other Income 1,462 1,564 2,500 3,000

Exc. / E.O. items 0 0 0 0

EBT 12,000 14,157 12,753 18,800

Tax 4,133 2,791 3,225 4,480

RPAT 7,867 11,365 9,528 14,319

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0

Profit/Loss share of associates 0 0 0 0

APAT 7,867 11,365 9,528 14,319

Balance Sheet

(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

Sources of Funds

Equity Capital 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0

Reserves & Surplus 39,899 49,224 58,092 71,649

Net Worth 41,299 50,624 59,492 73,049

Total Debt 0 0 0 0

Net Deferred Tax Liability 2,678 2,119 2,119 2,119

Total Capital Employed 43,977 52,743 61,611 75,168

Applications of Funds

Net Block 28,769 35,569 44,536 55,488

CWIP 4,781 7,767 10,000 10,000

Investments 15,440 2,581 5,000 5,000

Current Assets, Loans & Advances 10,504 25,805 21,950 26,921

Inventories 509 511 625 778

Receivables 2,215 1,704 1,875 2,334

Cash and Bank Balances 6,071 21,799 16,740 19,948

Loans and Advances 977 849 1,649 2,649

Other Current Assets 732 942 1,062 1,212

Less: Current Liabilities & Provisions 15,517 18,980 19,876 22,241

Payables 4,885 2,250 3,902 4,634

Other Current Liabilities 10,632 16,730 15,974 17,607

sub total

Net Current Assets (5,012) 6,825 2,075 4,680

Total Assets 43,977 52,743 61,611 75,168

E – Estimates

Page 10: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

September 08, 2020 10

Important Ratios

Particulars FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

(A) Margins (%)

Gross Profit Margin 41.1 43.3 45.9 48.3

EBIDTA Margin 21.8 23.4 22.5 26.5

EBIT Margin 18.3 19.5 18.0 22.2

Tax rate 34.4 19.7 25.3 23.8

Net Profit Margin 13.6 17.5 16.6 20.1

(B) As Percentage of Net Sales (%)

COGS 58.9 56.7 54.1 51.7

Employee 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.4

Other 16.8 17.5 20.7 19.5

(C) Measure of Financial Status

Gross Debt / Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Interest Coverage 515.1 156.1 394.4 3587.7

Inventory days 3 3 4 4

Debtors days 14 10 12 12

Average Cost of Debt

Payable days 31 13 25 24

Working Capital days (32) 38 13 24

FA T/O 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.3

(D) Measures of Investment

AEPS (Rs) 11.2 16.2 13.6 20.5

CEPS (Rs) 14.1 19.8 17.3 24.8

DPS (Rs) 2.4 2.8 2.6 3.0

Dividend Payout (%) 21.4 17.2 19.1 14.7

BVPS (Rs) 59.0 72.3 85.0 104.4

RoANW (%) 20.6 24.7 17.3 21.6

RoACE (%) 19.4 23.7 16.7 20.9

RoAIC (%) 30.3 36.8 27.1 31.6

(E) Valuation Ratios

CMP (Rs) 398 398 398 398

P/E 35.4 24.5 29.2 19.4

Mcap (Rs Mn) 2,78,425 2,78,425 2,78,425 2,78,425

MCap/ Sales 4.8 4.3 4.9 3.9

EV 2,72,354 2,56,626 2,61,685 2,58,477

EV/Sales 4.7 4.0 4.6 3.6

EV/EBITDA 21.7 16.9 20.3 13.7

P/BV 6.7 5.5 4.7 3.8

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8

(F) Growth Rate (%)

Revenue 27.1 12.5 (11.8) 24.4

EBITDA 12.7 20.9 (15.4) 46.6

EBIT 13.0 20.0 (18.9) 53.7

PBT 16.2 18.0 (9.9) 47.4

APAT 17.3 44.5 (16.2) 50.3

EPS 17.3 44.5 (16.2) 50.3

Cash Flow

(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

CFO 11,572 13,608 11,828 17,973

CFI (11,208) (5,207) (1,080) (14,000)

CFF (1,688) (2,435) (685) (765)

FCFF 4,764 3,975 (1,956) 3,973

Opening Cash 2,037 712 6,677 16,740

Closing Cash 712 6,677 16,740 19,948

E – Estimates

Page 11: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

DART RATING MATRIX

Total Return Expectation (12 Months)

Buy > 20%

Accumulate 10 to 20%

Reduce 0 to 10%

Sell < 0%

Rating and Target Price History

Month Rating TP (Rs.) Price (Rs.)

Nov-19 Accumulate 443 418

Nov-19 Accumulate 471 400

Feb-20 Accumulate 532 511

Mar-20 Buy 419 320

Mar-20 Buy 446 361

Jun-20 Accumulate 483 450

Aug-20 Accumulate 472 413

*Price as on recommendation date

DART Team

Purvag Shah Managing Director [email protected] +9122 4096 9747

Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities [email protected] +9122 4096 9745

CONTACT DETAILS

Equity Sales Designation E-mail Direct Lines

Dinesh Bajaj VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9709

Kapil Yadav VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9735

Yomika Agarwal VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9772

Jubbin Shah VP - Derivatives Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9779

Ashwani Kandoi AVP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9725

Lekha Nahar AVP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9740

Equity Trading Designation E-mail

P. Sridhar SVP and Head of Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9728

Chandrakant Ware VP - Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9707

Shirish Thakkar VP - Head Domestic Derivatives Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9702

Kartik Mehta Asia Head Derivatives [email protected] +9122 4096 9715

Dinesh Mehta Co- Head Asia Derivatives [email protected] +9122 4096 9765

Bhavin Mehta VP - Derivatives Strategist [email protected] +9122 4096 9705

280

340

400

460

520

580

Sep-1

9

Oct-

19

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-20

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

(Rs) IGL Target Price

Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. Sunshine Tower, 28th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (West), Mumbai 400013

Page 12: Indraprastha Gas - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/09/... · 2020. 9. 8. · September 08, 2020 3 What’s New IGL has been looking for organic as well

Our Research reports are also available on Reuters, Thomson Publishers, DowJones and Bloomberg (DCML <GO>)

Analyst(s) Certification The research analyst(s), with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

I. Analyst(s) and Associate (S) holding in the Stock(s): (Nil)

II. Disclaimer: This research report has been prepared by Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. to provide information about the company(ies) and sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies) solely for the purpose of information of the select recipient of this report. This report and/or any part thereof, may not be duplicated in any form and/or reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. This report has been prepared independent of the companies covered herein. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and its affiliated companies are part of a multi-service, integrated investment banking, brokerage and financing group. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and/or its affiliated company(ies) might have provided or may provide services in respect of managing offerings of securities, corporate finance, investment banking, mergers & acquisitions, financing or any other advisory services to the company(ies) covered herein. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and/or its affiliated company(ies) might have received or may receive compensation from the company(ies) mentioned in this report for rendering any of the above services. Research analysts and sales persons of Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies) associated with it. While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this report, it does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to herein, and Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. may not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This report is provided for information only and is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The investment discussed or views expressed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. The information contained herein may be changed without notice and Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as they may deem fit from time to time. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. This report is neither an offer nor solicitation of an offer to buy and/or sell any securities mentioned herein and/or not an official confirmation of any transaction. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and/or its affiliated company(ies) to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to a certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this report may come, are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restrictions.

For U.S. Entity/ persons only: This research report is a product of Dolat Capital Market Private Limited., which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

This report is intended for distribution by Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person or entity.

In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer Ltd Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo"). Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Marco Polo or another U.S. registered broker dealer/Entity as informed by Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. from time to time.

Dolat Capital Market Private Limited.

Corporate Identity Number: U65990DD1993PTC009797 Member: BSE Limited and National Stock Exchange of India Limited.

SEBI Registration No: BSE - INB010710052 & INF010710052, NSE - INB230710031& INF230710031, Research: INH000000685 Registered office: Office No. 141, Centre Point, Somnath, Daman – 396 210, Daman & Diu

Board: +9122 40969700 | Fax: +9122 22651278 | Email: [email protected] | www.dolatresearch.com