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rysudnI C U R S O R
Issue 17 January 2010Strictly for Private Circulation
Indian macroeconomic update
Highlights Macroeconomic update
Auto components
Banking
Cement
Commercial vehicle
Hospitality
IT hardware
IT-ITeS
Passenger vehicle
Pharmaceutical
Power
Retail
Steel
Textile & garment
Two and three-wheeler
2
4
5
7
6
8
3
9
10
11
15
14
13
12
Contents
Index of Industrial Production: Growth (%) Macroeconomic triad (forecast)
IIP and core infrastructure: Growth (%)
Note: Exchange rate: INR/US$Interest rate corresponds to yield on T-Bills 15-91 daysSource: D&B Industry Research Service
Note: Figures in ( ) indicate the same period last yearSource: CSO
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry,D&B Industry Research Service
Inflation8.1 - 8.3%
Exchange rate$45.80 - 46.00
Interest rate3.7 - 3.9%
Jan-10
E: D&B estimateSource: CMIE, D&B Industry Research Service
GDP: Growth (%)
n
n
n
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for November 2009 grew by 11.7%. The indices for the
mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors grew by 10.0%, 12.7% and 3.3%, respectively,
for the same period.
The monthly WPI-Inflation stood at 7.31% for December 2009 as compared to 4.78% for
November 2009. Build-up inflation in the financial year so far was 8.02% as compared to a
build-up of 1.86% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
India's total external debt stock stood at US$ 242.8 billion as at end-September 2009,
recording an increase of US$ 18.2 billion or 8.1% over end-March 2009 estimates. The long-
term debt increased by US$ 19.2 billion (10.6%) to US$ 200.4 billion, while short-term debt
was lower by US$ 985 million (-2.3%) to US$ 42.4 billion.
Agriculture Industry Services GDP at factor cost
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q2FY09 Q3FY09 Q4FY09 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10E
Indicator Nov-09Apr-Nov
2009
IIP General 11.7 (2.5) 7.6 (4.1)
Mining & quarrying 10.0 (0.7) 8.3 (3.4)
Electricity 3.3 (2.6) 6.1 (2.8)
Manufacturing 12.7 (2.7) 7.7 (4.2)
Use based
Basic goods 6.0 (2.2) 6.1 (3.6)
Capital goods 12.2 (0.5) 7.0 (8.4)
Intermediate goods 19.4 (-3.9) 11.4 (-0.7)
Consumer goods 11.1 (9.4) 6.3 (6.8)
Consumer durables 37.3 (0.3) 21.7 (5.1)
Consumer non-durables 3.1 (12.4) 1.1 (7.3)
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
Six core infrastructure IIP
No
v-08
Dec-
08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar-
09
Ap
r-09
May-
09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Auto components industry
Highlights
*Outstanding investmentsSource: CMIE
n
n
n
Foreign OEMs announced their investment plans for India. Bosch will
invest Rs 20 billion in its Indian operations by 2012. Setco Automotive
plans to invest Rs 1 billion over the next two years for setting up a new
plant for clutch units in Africa, and for market development. It will make
a foray into manufacturing of clutch units for light commercial vehicles
and four-wheeler segments.
More foreign OEMs announced their sourcing plans from India to
leverage the low-cost advantage of India. Nissan Motors of Japan will
source auto components worth $ 40 million from India by 2012.
Volkswagen is also exploring possibilities to source components from
India using Maruti Suzuki's base in India.
Delphi Automotive Systems is looking at doubling its revenues from
India by 2015. Currently, Europe and America generate the highest
revenues for the company.
Investment scenario*: Auto components (Rs billion)
Dec-
06
Mar-
07
Jun
-07
Sep
-07
Dec-
07
Mar-
08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Dec-
08
Mar-
09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Dec-
09
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Steel prices (Mumbai)(Rs/tonne)
Source: CMIE
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
40000
42000
HR Coils 2.0 mm CR Coils 0.63 mm
Dec-
08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar-
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Ap
r-09
May-
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Jun
-09
Jul-
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Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec-
09
Highlights
Banking industry
Deposits, credit and growthrates
Movement in call money rates(%)
Note: PLR relates to 5 major banksDeposit rate relates to major banks for termdeposits of more than one year maturitySource for all above charts: RBI
Movement in PLR & depositrates (%)
n
n
n
n
n
n
Indian Bank has revised the interest rates on FCNR (B) and NRE deposits
with effect from January 1, 2010. For FCNR (B) dollar-denominated
deposits, the revised rate is 1.98% (2.02% earlier) for one to two years
time bucket. For NRE term deposits, the revised rate is 2.73% (2.77%
earlier) for one to two years time bucket. The rates for other maturities
have also been revised.
Axis Bank has announced a special home loans scheme at a fixed rate of
8.25% for the first two years, irrespective of the loan amount. This
scheme is open till March 31, 2010. After the offer period, the floating
rate of interest will be applicable based on the mortgage reference rate.
Bank of India is also planning a special home loans scheme at a fixed
rate of 8% for two years, for loans up to Rs 3 million.
State Bank of Travancore has announced a revision of interest rates for
NRE deposits with effect from January 2, 2010. After the revision,
interest rate for NRE term deposits for one to two year time bucket will
be 2.73%; two to three years time bucket will be 3.14% and three to
five years time bucket will be 3.79%.
The State Bank of India is planning to raise Rs 30 billion through retail
bonds, and is likely to offer over 8% coupon rate, for 10-year tenure. It
has applied to the Reserve Bank of India and SEBI for necessary
approvals.
Punjab National Bank is planning to raise up to Rs 70 billion from bonds,
to fund its growth plans.
Call money rate-High
Call money rate-Low
PLR (max)
PLR (min)
Deposit rate (max)
Deposit rate (min)
Global news
n
with effect from January 18, 2010. The prevailing reserve requirements
are 15.5% for big banks and 13.5% for smaller banks.
nThe Federal Reserve has proposed a programme, subject to a 30-day
comment period, to sell term deposits to banks in order to absorb some
of the banking system's excess reserves.
China has raised the reserve requirement for banks by 50 basis points
Deposits (LHS)Credit (LHS)y-o-y growth rates of deposits (RHS)y-o-y growth rates of credit (RHS)
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
De
c-0
9
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar-
09
Ap
r-0
9
May-0
9
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
No
v-0
9 8
13
18
23
28
33
38
43
8,000
13,000
18,000
23,000
28,000
33,000
38,000
43,000%Rs bn
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar-
09
Ap
r-09
May-0
9
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
No
v-0
90
2
4
6
8
10
12
Dec-
09
Jan
-10
5
7
9
11
13
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Dec-
09
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar-
09
Ap
r-09
May-0
9
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
No
v-0
9
Cement industry
Highlights
Average wholesale cementprices – Mumbai (Rs/ 50 kg bag)
Cement consumption(mn tonnes)
Source: CMIE
Source: CMIE
Source: CMA
Cement: Production and despatches
Cement: Region-wise scenario (November 2009)
Source: CMIE
n2009.
nCement prices showed an upward trend in December, due to surge in demand caused by government-led infrastructure spending and recovery in the housing construction segment.
nJaiprakash Associates has commissioned its 1.75 MT cement unit titled Jaypee Himachal Cement Grinding & Blending Plant located in Himachal Pradesh.
nACC has commissioned its 1.2 MT greenfield cement grinding plant titled ACC Kudithini Cement Works at Kudithini village in Bellary district in north Karnataka. The plant was set up with an investment of Rs 3.7 billion.
nChettinad Cement Corporation will increase its capacity by 3.0 MT by the end of 2010. The company is also planning to set up a greenfield plant in Karnataka. The company has already acquired 1,500 acres for the project.
nHolcim Group intends to increase its cement production capacity in India by 20% by 2015. The capacity additions would be done only through the organic route.
nLafarge Group (French cement major) is poised to begin its next phase of organic and inorganic growth in India.
nShareholders and creditors of Grasim Industries have approved the demerging of its cement business into its wholly-owned subsidiary Samruddhi Cements. Samruddhi would be later merged with UltraTech Cement.
nBinani Cement has inked long term supply agreements with shipping companies to reduce logistic costs and to have buffer against volatile shipping freights rates. The ships will deliver clinker from Singapore to China and Dubai, where Binani has two plants and also coal from Indonesia to India.
Cement desptaches witnessed a 13.2% y-o-y growth in December,
220.0
225.0
230.0
235.0
240.0
245.0
250.0
255.0
260.0
265.0
Au
g-0
8
Oct
-08
Dec-
08
Feb
-09
Ap
r-09
Jun
-09
Ap
r-08
Jun
-08
Au
g-0
9
Oct
-09
Dec-
09
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar-
09
Ap
r-09
May-0
9
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9
Dec-
09
Production Consumption
mn tonnes % growth mn tonnes % growth
Northern 2.6 -21.2 2.1 -28.5
Western 1.6 -25.0 2.2 -10.4
Central 2.1 -0.8 2.0 -8.5
Eastern 1.8 -15.1 2.1 -8.0
Southern 4.4 -5.4 4.0 -6.4
Region
ParametersDec-09 Apr09-Dec09
mn tonnes
y-o-y growth (%)
mn tonnes
y-o-y growth (%)
Production 13.91 13.0 116.01 12.8
Despatches 14.13 13.2 115.31 12.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
De
c-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Jun
-07
Sep
-07
De
c-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
De
c-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
De
c-0
9M&HCV: Domestic sales (Nos.)
Source: CMIE
Commercial vehicle industry
Highlights
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
In December, domestic sales of commercial vehicles surged to 48,655
units, the highest in any month during FY10 so far. This growth was
driven by higher sales of both M&HCVs and LCVs.
During April-December 2009, sales of commercial vehicles posted
growth of 22.3%, as against sales decline of 15.3% in the same period
of 2008.
CV exports picked up pace after August 2009. However, cumulatively,
exports were down by 14.5% during April-December 2009.
In January, Tata Motors increased prices of some of its medium & heavy
vehicles by around 1%, while Volvo Trucks India raised prices by 3-4%,
citing rising input costs. Ashok Leyland plans to hike prices by March.
CV manufacturers such as Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Volvo, etc are
optimistic on the prospects of the industry in 2010-11.
VE Commercial Vehicle will invest Rs 5 billion over the next three years
in doubling production capacity (to 1 lakh vehicles p.a. by 2015) and
developing new engine technology for CVs. Auto components
manufacturer Cooper Corporation announced that it will make a foray
into CV manufacturing, and has earmarked Rs 3 billion to set up a plant
(with a capacity of 20,000 units p.a.) and expand facility in Maharashtra
in the next 18 months.
Mercedes-Benz India launched its multi-axle luxury bus at a price of
Rs 85 lakh. Mahindra & Mahindra announced that it will launch the
electric version of its CV Maxximo by October.
To take advantage of the lower labour cost in India, Volvo Buses India
plans to start exports of buses from India to emerging markets, by the
end of next year.
LCV: Domestic sales (Nos.)
Source: CMIE
Commercial vehicle sales (Nos.)
Source: CMIE
Investment scenario*:Commercial vehicles (Rs bn)
*Outstanding investments Source: CMIE
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
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Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09
Dec-08 Dec-09Y-o-Y
growth (%)Apr - Dec08
Apr - Dec09Y-o-Y
growth (%)
M&HCV 6,907 24,078 248.6 143,035 156,858 9.7
LCV 10,997 24,577 123.5 145,702 196,181 34.6
Total domestic 17,904 48,655 171.8 288,737 353,039 22.3
Exports 2,362 4,614 95.3 36,026 30,815 -14.5
Total 20,266 53,269 162.8 324,763 383,854 18.2
Segments
Hospitality industry
Highlights
Foreign Tourist Arrivals inIndia ('000 nos.)
Source for all above charts: Ministry of Tourism
Foreign Exchange Earnings(FEE)
Source: Ministry of Tourism
Tourism statistics
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
The Karnataka Government has targeted investments of about Rs 250
billion during the next five years in the tourism sector, for tourism-
related infrastructure development. The State has been categorised
into zones according to priority of infrastructure development.
Speciality Restaurants Private Ltd, which runs restaurant chains like
Mainland China, Sigree, Oh! Calcutta, Machan, and Flame and Grill, is
planning to dilute its equity by up to 30%, to raise money for its
expansion plans, besides planning an initial public offer. The company is
also planning to acquire a restaurant in South India, costing around
Rs 1 billion.
Arunachal Pradesh hosted a 5-day Siang River Festival from January 11,
2010, to showcase its rich tourism potential. The festival was held at
Aalo in West Siang district, at the confluence of Sipu and Yomgo rivers.
The Gujarat Government is looking to set up a Rs 5 billion venture
capital fund through public-private partnership to invest in tourism-
related infrastructure in the State.
The government has announced tourist visa on arrival for citizens of five
countries, including, Japan, New Zealand, Finland, Luxembourg and
Singapore, in an effort to promote tourism.
Westin Hotels & Resorts, with a chain of over 145 properties across 29
countries, has added The Westin Hyderabad Mindspace with 428 guest
rooms and suites to its chain.
DB Hospitality has tied up with Hyatt International to manage five of its
upcoming hotel projects. DB Hospitality is developing five properties at
a total cost of Rs 55 billion. Its present portfolio comprises Le Royal
Meridien, Mumbai and Le Meridien, Ahmedabad.
Indian Hotels Company Ltd (IHCL), part of the Tata Group has signed a
management contract for a hotel in Srinagar with SAIFCO Hill Crest
Hotels under the brand 'Vivanta by Taj'.
Foreign exchange earnings (LHS)
Growth rate (RHS)
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0%Rs bn
Dec-09 2009
Value Growth (%) Value Growth (%)
Foreign tourist arrival (million) 0.65 21.00 5.11 -3.30
Forex earnings (US$ million) 1510 44.40 11394 -3.00
Parameters
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-0
9
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar-
09
Ap
r-0
9
May-0
9
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
Foreign tourist arrivals in India
Oct
-09
422
547
418
348299
342
435
350328
446
528
646
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
De
c-0
9
IT hardware industry
Global news
Highlights
Domestic computer hardware& peripheral production(Rs billion)
Source: CMIE
n
processors. These processors intended for usage in desktops,
notebooks and embedded devices, offer better speed and energy
efficiency as compared to earlier processors. These processors make
photo, video and music downloading faster.
Intel Corporation has announced the launch of its new range of 'Core'
n
its TelePresence video-conferencing system. The company shall tie up
with Verizon Communications, a phone and internet service provider,
to install the system in homes in the US.
nLenovo Group Ltd, a leading PC manufacturer, has announced its entry
into the smartphone market with the launch of LePhone. The device,
12 mm thick and featuring a 3.7 inch screen, will be launched in China
this year.
nLenovo has developed a new line of ThinkPad notebook computer
aimed at entrepreneurs from small business market. The retail price of
this device will start from US$ 499 and can be customised as per
requirements.
nHewlett-Packard Co announced the launch of the world's first touch
enabled netbook – Mini 5102. The device, weighing 2.6 pounds and
featuring a 10 inch display, will be targeted at students and
professionals.
Cisco Systems Inc has announced plans of introducing home version of
2.32.6 2.5
1.8 1.9
3.7
1.8
2.3
3.1
2.32.8
3.0
2.2
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
Oct
-08
No
v-0
8
Dec-
08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
May-
09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
IT-ITeS industry
Highlights
Customer satisfaction ratings– BPO services
Source: NASSCOM, D&B Industry Research
n
provider, has entered into an agreement with H.A.Sh group system
services Ltd, an Israel-based company. As per the agreement, Micro
Technologies will provide sophisticated security devices to the Israeli
company.
nIBM has announced plans of expanding its BPO operations in the
country. The company will hire 5,000 people to support the expansion
plan.
nHCL Technologies entered into a strategic partnership with Talisma
Corporation. As per the deal, HCL would provide customised
user-based services while Talisma would provide CRM applications to
address various needs of clients.
nWalgreens, USA's leading drugstore chain, has entered into a 10 year
outsourcing deal with Genpact, India's leading BPO service provider.
As per the deal, Walgreens will move its accounting processes and jobs
to Genpact.
nInfosys Technologies reported a 0.8% decline in revenues to Rs 57.4
billion, for the quarter ended December 2009. The company posted
4.6% decline in net profits at Rs 15.6 billion.
Micro Technologies (India), a Mumbai-based security solutions
74
78
85
85
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86
Specialisedvoice
Rules baseddecisions
Basic voice
Basic data
Passenger vehicle industry
Highlights
n
n
n
n
Mahindra & Mahindra will launch a premium sports utility vehicle by the
end of next financial year. The company is investing Rs 7-8 billion to
develop the product. The SUV will eventually be exported to the US.
Volkswagen will launch its high-end luxury car Phaeton at a price of
Rs 75 lakh in March. The company will launch its Polo sedan in India in
the second half of 2010.
Fiat of Italy announced that it plans to bring its super premium
hatchback 'By Diesel 500', a co-branded model with European clothing
firm Diesel, in India. The company plans to launch a small car in India in
2012, designed specifically for the Indian market. Honda of Japan also
plans to launch a new compact car in India in 2011.
Toyota Kirloskar Motor launched its hybrid car Prius in India, at a price of
Rs 26.5 - 27.8 lakh (ex-showroom, New Delhi). The company plans to
launch a new compact car Etios by the end of this year, and plans to sell
70,000 units of the car in India every year.
PV manufacturers such as Maruti, General Motors, Ford India, etc are
contemplating hiking prices of their vehicles, citing rising input costs.
BMW hiked prices of its vehicles by up to Rs 4.3 lakh in January. Maruti
had previously raised prices a year ago, by about 2%.
Utility Vehicles: Domesticsales (Nos.)
Source: CMIE
Passenger Cars: Domestic sales(Nos.)
Source: CMIE
Passenger vehicle sales (Nos.)
Source: CMIE
Segments Dec-08 Dec-09Y-o-Y
growth(%)Apr - Dec
08Apr - Dec
09
Y-o-Y growth
(%)
Mini 2,907 6,184 112.7 37,307 42,128 12.9
Compact 61,904 83,513 34.9 625,265 798,497 27.7
Mid-size 14,823 21,047 42.0 171,496 190,235 10.9
Executive 1,945 3,383 73.9 23,670 31,390 32.6
Premium 518 1,038 100.4 6,547 7,706 17.7
Luxury 77 103 33.8 800 953 19.1
MPV 7,201 12,165 68.9 77,021 103,947 35.0
Passenger cars 89,375 127,433 42.6 942,106 1,174,856 24.7
Multi-utility vehicle 10,065 21,664 115.2 162,893 193,130 18.6
Domestic sales 99,440 149,097 49.9 1,104,999 1,367,986 23.8
Exports 28,558 40,088 40.4 254,048 330,565 30.1
Total sales 127,998 189,185 47.8 1,359,047 1,698,551 25.0
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09
Investment scenario*:Passenger vehicles (Rs bn)
*Outstanding investmentsSource: CMIE
Dec
-06
Mar
-07
Jun
-07
Sep
-07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Pharmaceutical industry
Highlights
nIn November 2009, domestic retail sales of formulations grew by
20.4% (in value terms), as per ORG-IMS audit.
nIn December 2009, the NPPA increased the prices of 3 formulation
packs.
nDr Reddy's Laboratories has entered into a collaboration with India
based biotechnology firm Transgene Biotek to jointly develop and
commercialise 'Orlistat drug' (used for weight loss). Under the terms of
the agreement, Transgene Biotek would provide technology while
manufacturing and marketing of the drug would be undertaken by
Dr Reddy's Laboratories.
nDishman Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals is planning to set up four new
active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) plants with an investment of
Rs 1.25 billion.
nRanbaxy Laboratories has launched a dermatological product 'Lulifin' in
India. Lulifin is indicated for cutaneous mycoses (a fungal infection)
caused by Tinea pedis, Tinea corporis and Tinea cruris. The company is
also planning to launch a generic version of Olmesartan Medoxomil
(anti-hypertension drug) under the brand name — Olvance in Africa.
nAurobindo Pharma has received approval from Therapeutic Goods
Administration (a regulatory body for therapeutic goods in Australia)
for marketing Citalopram Hydrobromide tablets (indicated for the
treatment of depression and fall under the central nervous system
therapeutic segment) in Australia.
nWockhardt has received US FDA approval for marketing Levofloxacin
tablets (anti-bacterial drug) and Memantine HCl tablets (used in the
treatment of Alzheimer's disease and dementia) in the US.
nZydus Cadila has received approval from the Drug Controller General of
India for conducting clinical trials for the swine flu (H1N1) vaccine.
Drugs and pharmaceuticalsimport
Drugs and pharmaceuticalsexport
Source: ORG-IMS March 2009 (MAT)
Source: ORG-IMS March 2009 (MAT)
Major destinations for Indian drugs and pharmaceuticalsexports (USD mn)
Source: CMIE
289.8
440.2
643.5700.4
928.2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0%USD mn
Pharmaceutical import (LHS)
Growth rate (RHS)
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
2060.82443.8
3175.8
4153.0
5091.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
%USD mn
Pharmaceutical import (LHS)
Growth rate (RHS)
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Countries FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
USA 321.4 280.3 548.2 954.4 950.0
European Union 307.5 353.4 379.4 552.2 861.9
Other European countries
319.2 432.7 533.7 590.0 630.6
Russia 163.6 233.1 280.4 298.0 321.4
Austria 2.4 1.6 4.2 13.8 285.3
World 2060.8 2443.8 3175.8 4153.0 5091.3
Power generation (billion units)
Power industry
Highlights
PLF of thermal plants (%)
*ProvisionalSource: CEA, CMIE
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
India aims to generate 20,000 MW of solar power by 2022 as part of its
'National Solar Mission'.
NTPC will invest about Rs 30 billion to add over 300 MW solar
generation capacity by March, 2014.
The Ministry for New and Renewable Energy looks forward to a surge in
foreign direct investment (FDI) in wind energy with the introduction of
the generation-based incentive scheme for grid connected wind power
projects. The renewable energy sector has attracted US$ 65.72 million
FDI inflow till September, 2009.
The government is likely to make the energy-efficient supercritical
technology mandatory for all future power projects coming up from
13th Five-Year Plan (2017-22) onwards in an attempt to restrict the
emission of greenhouse gases.
Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Ltd (RRVUNL) has awarded a
Letter of Intent (LoI) to Adani Power Rajasthan Ltd (a 100% subsidiary of
Adani Power Ltd) to purchase up to 1,200 MW of power on long-term
basis.
Kalpataru Power Transmission has secured two orders totalling over
Rs 2.50 billiion from Sonelgaz, Algeria, and the Tamil Nadu Electricity
Board. It has received an order worth Rs 1 billion from Sonelgaz for
construction of 220 kV transmission line of 100 km and also a 60 kV line
of 120 km. The company has also received a Rs 1.5 billion order for
commissioning of the 400 kV D/C MTPS-Arasur Line (110 km and 6,180
metres) from the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board.
ITC has given an order to Suzlon Energy for supplying 27 MW of wind
power turbines for its projects in Karnataka and Maharashtra.
KEC International Ltd has won Rs 4.0 billion (aggregate) worth of orders
from Abu Dhabi Transmission & Despatch Company to construct 400
KV quadruple circuit line from Dhaid to Al Wasit traversing three
Emirates of Ajman, Umm al-Quwain and Sharjah within 2 years.
*Source: CMIE, CEAProvisional
*Provisional Source: CEA
Trend in energy deficit -All India (%)
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-08
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09*
Power generation
* ProvisionalSource: CEA, CMIE
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-08
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09A
ug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09*
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-08
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09*
Parameters
Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09* Apr09-Dec09*
mn kWhy-o-y
growth (%)
mn kWhy-o-y
growth (%)
mn kWhy-o-y
growth (%)
mn kWhy-o-y
growth (%)
Thermal 52,976.29 5.09 51,600.92 5.59 55,120.63 6.11 468,534.37 8.79
Hydro 9,814.33 -1.57 6,939.63 -12.04 6,630.59 -4.36 85,443.96 -7.49
Nuclear 1,727.91 31.83 1,393.03 9.9 1,471.00 38.87 13,408.12 18.61
All India 65,246.39 4.67 60,256.23 3.27 63,417.22 5.45 572,521.85 6.03
Retail industry
Highlights
Wholesale price inflationvs consumer price iInflation
Indian households: Decreasingsize and increasing income
Source: MOSPI
nThe Indian retail sector is expected to grow at 5.5% to $ 410 billion by
2010 as per Assocham's report on retail sector. Organised retail, which
accounts for nearly 5% of the overall retail market, is likely to touch
$13 billion by 2010 from $9.2 billion. Retail sector income may grow by
22.7% and 30.2% in the third and fourth quarter of 2009-10,
respectively.
nA report by A.C.Nielsen depicted that cusumer confidence has
increased in markets recovering from recession - including Hong Kong,
China, Singapore, India and Brazil. Consumer confidence has declined
slightly in India, and it ranks second with 117 index points behind
Indonesia (119 points).
nPantaloon Retail India Limited (PRIL), has completed all formalities and
gained shareholders' approval through a postal ballot to hive off its
value segments-Big Bazaar and Food Bazaar-into a separate company
called Future Value Retail.
E:D&B EstimateSource: NAS
4.6
4.8
5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
1981 1991 2001 2011E0
50
Household size
Rs '000Avg. no of person
100
150
200
250
Major expansion plans of retailers
Source: Company announcements
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
CPI WPI
No
v-08
Jan
-09
Mar-
09
May-
09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
Notable launches
Company Format/Vertical No. of stores Deadline
Big Bazaar Hypermarket 350 -
KB’s Fair Price Discount Store 900 -
Shopper’s Stop Department Store 18 2012
Reliance Jewels Gems & Jewellery 15 2012
Gloria Jean’s Coffee Food and Beverage 41 2011
Maishaa Home improvement 50 March 2010
Major Brands Fashion Brands 62 2011
Vision Express Eyewear 700 2016-17
Sun Glass hut Eyewear 30 2012
Brand Format/Vertical Location
Hypercity Hypermarket Thane
7 For All Mankind Apparel Delhi
Vision Express Eyewear Mumbai
Maishaa Home improvement Kolkatta
Rosebys Home Improvement Indore
Source: Company announcements
Steel industry
Highlights
HRC and CRC prices-Mumbai(Rs/tonne)
Source: CMIE
Finished steel production
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Steel Authority of India (SAIL) has revived its plan to develop a special
economic zone (SEZ) at Salem based on strong domestic and
international steel demand. SAIL has invited new expressions of interest
(EoIs) for this joint venture project.
JSW Steel Ltd (JSL) has decided to repay debt by way of raising funds
through Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) as against its earlier
plans to raise funds by sale of shares.
Government is contemplating to implement a new iron ore royalty
computation system based on iron proportion in the ore. Under the
new system of ad valorem royalty, high grade iron ore (over 62% iron
ore content) will attract the highest levy resulting in higher government
revenues. The rates are yet to be decided. This proposal will impact the
business plans of companies such as SAIL, Tata Steel Ltd (TSL), POSCO
and ArcelorMittal.
The steel ministry is seeking an immediate amendment of laws to
enable it to grant iron ore mining lease to steel companies engaged in
bidding for fast track steel projects.
Corus is likely to invest € 35 million (approximately Rs 2.4 billion) at its
Hayange rail production facility located in France. This investment will
facilitate installation of better manufacturing equipments, thereby
increasing the plant's efficiency and enabling workers to produce 108
metres long rails.
Jindal Stainless Steel Ltd will increase its stainless steel production
capacity to 2.5 MT by March, 2014 on the back of its proposed 1.6 MT
greenfield plant situated in Orissa.
Indian steel majors like SAIL, Essar Steel Ltd and Ispat Industries Ltd are
likely to increase prices by 3-4% or Rs 1,000-1,500 per tonne in January
on the back of rising global steel prices.
Surya Vijayanagar Steels and Power Ltd (a subsidiary of Surya Roshni)
has proposed to invest Rs 200 billion to set up a 5 MT integrated steel
plant, along with a 500 MW captive power plant in Bagalkot district in
north Karnataka.
Jindal Saw Ltd has received orders worth Rs 11 billion for supplying
large diameter welded pipes and ductile iron pipes.
Tayo Rolls (the cast iron and steel rolling subsidiary of TSL) has opened
an integrated facility for manufacturing forged rolls and engineering
forgings with an investment of Rs 1.7 billion to meet the demand from
various sectors like oil and gas, power, wind mill, sugar, cement and
steel.
Japanese steel major Sumitomo Metals (SM) and Bhushan Steel Ltd
signed an agreement, wherein SM would provide the technical know-
how for Bhushan Steel's 2.2 MT plant in Orissa. The plant is likely to be
commissioned in January 2010, and will produce high quality auto
grade steel sheets which will be marketed by Sumitomo Metals.
Source: CMIE
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
r-09
Ap
r-09
Ma
y-0
9
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Oct
-09
HR coils (2.00 mm) CR coils (1.00 mm)
No
v-0
9
4,477
4,398
4,736
4,300
4,496
4,527
4,544
4,588
4,795
4,521
4,638
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
4,000.0
4,100.0
4,200.0
4,300.0
4,400.0
4,500.0
4,600.0
4,700.0
4,800.0
4,900.0%'000 tonnes
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9
Finished steel production (LHS)
Growth rate (RHS)
Textile & garment industry
Highlights
Textile exports (US$ billion)
Garment exports (US$ billion)
Production of textiles: April-September 2009
Source: CMIE
n
n
n
n
The Government of Bihar, to facilitate marketing of jute products, has
announced plans of setting up jute marketing yards in the regions of
Purnea, and Kishanganj. For setting up of a jute park, The Bihar
Industrial Area Development (BIADA) has allotted 44.5 acres of land to
the government. The cost of setting up of the park is estimated to be
around Rs 1.5 billion.
Alok Industries Ltd has signed a co-operation agreement with DyStar, a
leading supplier of dyes, to be partners in the field of dyeing and
printing. This agreement will enable Alok Industries to optimise their
technical processes, improve quality and efficiency and streamline their
supply side issues.
Arvind Mills has announced plans of expanding its presence in the rural
markets of India on account of currency fluctuations and reduction in
pace of consumer spending in global markets. The company, to tap
rural markets, will set up around 1,000-1,500 point of sale (including
non-textile shops like grocery and petrol pumps) per state.
Raymond Ltd, a leading apparel manufacturer, has announced plans of
opening over 200 retail outlets across the country in the next one and
half years. The company currently has around 600 retail outlets across
the country.
Textile and garment imports(US$ billion)
Source for all the above charts: DGCI&S
Category Units Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09
Spun yarn 000 tonnes 332.5 334.9 339.2 350.3 348.6 326.2
y-o-y growth % 1.2 -2.7 -0.9 3.6 6.8 2.2
Fabrics mn sq mtr 5,137 4,782 4,992 5,214 5,014 4,583
y-o-y growth % 17.0 -7.6 5.1 22.9 17.6 2.7
3.5
2.6
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Apr08-Jul08 Apr09-Jul09
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
Apr08-Jul08 Apr09-Jul09
0.9
0.8
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Apr08-Jul08 Apr09-Jul09
Highlights
Three-wheeler:Domestic sales (Nos.)
Two-wheeler: Domestic sales (in million)
Source: CMIE
Source: CMIE
Two-wheeler and Three-wheelerindustry
Source: CMIE
Two-wheeler sales Three-wheeler sales
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
In December, domestic sales of two-wheelers registered strong growth
of 66.4%. This growth was driven by strong performance from
motorcycle, scooters and moped segments.
Two-wheelers exports also witnessed a healthy rise of 7.1% in
December 2009, as compared to the same month in the preceding year.
M&M, which recently entered the two-wheeler market after the
takeover of Kinetic's two-wheeler business, is planning to launch its first
motorcycle in this calendar year. The company is also working on
increasing its installed capacity for two-wheelers in order to meet future
targets.
Yamaha is planning to launch its first scooter model by this calendar
year. The company has been aggressively focusing on Indian two-
wheeler market in order to achieve its targeted 10% market share in the
industry by FY12.
Bajaj Auto is targeting to achieve one million sales of its Pulsar brand for
FY11. This target has been on the back of encouraging initial customer
responses of its newly launched Pulsar 135 LS.
After Royal Enfield, Hero Honda and Bajaj, TVS Motor is planning to
enter greater than 200cc motorcycle segment.
Domestic sales of three-wheelers witnessed a strong 83.7% y-o-y
growth during December 2009. This growth was driven by strong rise in
domestic sales of passenger carriers which grew by 91.8%, combined
with 56.3% growth in domestic sales of goods carriers.
Exports of three-wheelers observed a healthy increase of 10.8% on
y-o-y basis in December 2009.
Comment
The growth in the two-wheeler industry continues to remain strong during
this fiscal on the back of economic recovery and lower base affect. Even for
the next fiscal, the industry is expected to register healthy growth owning
to higher economic growth and array of new models which are expected to
be launched by almost all the key players in their bid to increase market
share.
De
c-0
8
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9
De
c-0
9
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
De
c-0
8
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9
De
c-0
9
Dec-09 Apr-Dec09
Vol (Nos)
Y-o-Y growth
(%)
Vol (Nos)
Y-o-Y growth
(%)
Motorcycles 592,596 76.5 5,339,738 22.2
Scooters 127,597 41.4 1,018,900 18.2
Mopeds 47,603 41.2 417,463 30.8
Electric vehicles 0 -100.0 3,001 -86.1
Total domestic 767,796 66.4 6,779,102 21.7
Exports 113,997 25.6 849,235 7.1
Total 881,793 59.7 7,628,337 19.9
Dec-09 Apr-Dec09
Vol (Nos)
Y-o-Y growth
(%)
Vol (Nos)
Y-o-Y growth
(%)
Passenger carriers 28,235 91.8 257,767 33.6
Goods carriers 6,758 56.3 63,981 -4.3
Total domestic 34,993 83.7 321,748 23.9
Exports 18,380 10.8 118,100 -1.9
Total 53,373 49.8 439,848 15.7
Segments Segments
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