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Industry Workforce Analysis:
Community Sector
ACT Long Service Leave Authority 2019
2
Index
1. Background 4
1.1 The Scheme 4
1.2 Previous reports 4
1.3 Overview of the Authority’s registered employee & employer database 4
1.4 Data scope 5
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
2. Point in time analysis 6
2.1 Number of employees and positions 6
2.2 Multiple position holders 6
2.3 Length of service 7
2.4 Turnover rates 8
2.5 Age of workers 9
2.6 Median wages by sub-sector 12
2.7 Median wages by age 13
2.8 Median wages by length of service 14
2.9 Organisation size 14
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
3. Time series analysis 16
3.1 Number of positions and registered individuals in the Industry 16
3.2 Number of positions by sub-sector 17
3.3 Growth rate of registered positions 17
3.3 Sub-sector share of Industry positions 19
3.3 Median ages 19
3.4 Wage growth over time 23
3.5 Number of workers recording service 24
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
4. Glossary 26
Disclaimer: This report has been compiled from data held in the ACT Long Service Leave Authority’s
database as described in chapter 1.3. Information in this report is provided ‘as is’ and neither the ACT
Long Service Leave Authority, nor Insight Consulting Australia, make any assurances about the
accuracy or completeness of this information.
3
4
1. Background
1.1 The Scheme The ACT Long Service Leave Authority was established on 1 July 2010 under the Long Service Leave
(Portable Leave Schemes) Act 2009. The Authority administers portable long service leave benefit
schemes for the:
Building and Construction Industry Contract Cleaning Industry Community Sector Industry Security Industry
The scheme enables workers (whether part time, full time, casual or sub-contractor) to transfer from employer to employer without losing their accrued service entitlements. At the commencement of the Scheme in 2010, the scope of the Community Sector covered by the Scheme included child care, residential care services for disadvantaged people where nursing or medical care was not provided as a major service and residential corrective services for young offenders, non-residential welfare services, employment placement services for people with a disability and community service advocacy services. From July 2016, residential aged care services and community aged care services became eligible for entry to the scheme. Community Sector employers are legally required to register with the Authority and declare the wages
and days worked for all employees via quarterly returns (via an online portal). Since its establishment in
2010, the Authority has carried out education and compliance activities to ensure organisations are
aware of and meet their legal responsibilities under the Act.
1.2 Previous reports
The Authority commissioned a previous data analysis on the Community Sector Industry in 2016. That
analysis examined data from approximately 20,000 employee records, from the time of the scheme’s
establishment in 2010 to the close of 2015. The analysis provided significant and foundational data on
the ACT Community Services Industry.
Other data collections with currency, jurisdictional and industry relevance for ACT Community Sector
workforce are the 2016 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing; the 2016
ACTCOSS State of the Community Services Sector report; and annual data collected from the Annual
Information Statement by the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission. These reports were
recently collated for the Workforce Data and Community Needs Assessment for the ACT Community
Services Industry Strategy.
1.3 Overview of the Authority’s registered employee & employer database All registered employees and employers are allocated a unique identification number within the Authority’s database. Each employer is allocated one primary classification such as child care or residential aged care services. Quarterly reports detailing service and ordinary wages for each employee are submitted by employers. The greater the length of time that an employee works within the industry the more quarterly reports will be submitted and held in the Authority database. For example, if a worker is employed by a single employer for one year, then four separate quarterly reports will be held against their registration number during that time. If they are employed for five years, the system will hold 20 quarterly reports. If an employee works for more than one employer, a separate report will be returned for each position, for each quarter (or part thereof) they are employed. If an employer changes their employer, then a separate
5
quarterly return will be submitted by each respective employer during the quarterly reporting period, noting the employee’s start and cease date. When an employee ceases work in the Industry, they can remain inactive for four years. In the lead up to the mark of four years, the Authority posts a letter to the ceased employee’s registered address advising them that their account will be deregistered if they do not respond to the letter. Once a worker has a break from the industry for more than four years, their account with the Authority is deregistered. The Scheme commenced operation in 2010, and as expected there was an initial growth in the number of registered employees as more and more employers became aware of their responsibilities under the Long Service Leave (Portable Schemes) Act 2009. This initial growth should be recognised as a growth in the registration process, rather than solely a growth in new positions within the Industry. Changes also occurred in July 2016 when Residential Aged Care employees became eligible for entry to the Scheme. Again, the data shows an influx of registrations in this sub-sector at and following this date. Any positions that remain vacant for an entire three-month reporting period are uncaptured in the data.
1.4 Data scope For the purposes of this analysis, the Authority generated a file of quarterly returns from a six-year period, from the time period of 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2018. The file contained 298,725 records, relating to 30,877 unique workers. The table below provides a breakdown of the registration status of these workers as at 11 July 2019:
Number of workers reported between 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2018 by registration status (as at 18 Apr 2019)
Active (Employee) 14,172
Active (Contractor - Working Director) 1
Active (Ceased) 8,467
Active (4 Year Rule No Letter Sent) 212
Active (4 Year Rule Letter Sent) 881
Deregistered (Deceased) 9
Deregistered (Deregistered) 4,916
Deregistered (Duplicate) 4
Deregistered (Paid out) 310
Deregistered (Rejected) 1
Inactive (Greater than 5 years of service, but not paid out)
9
Inactive (Greater than 55 days of service, registered pre-July 2012, aged 55+, but not paid out)
273
Pending 1,622
TOTAL 30,877
6
2. Point in time analysis
The point in time analysis presented in this chapter relates to the status of the industry as at 31
December 2018.
In this analysis, records included in the Oct-Dec 2018 return which relate to positions where the worker
has stopped working for the employer before 31 December 2018 are ignored. This eliminates the double
counting that occurs in a quarterly report when one employee leaves and another starts in the same
position. In this scenario there is only one position and only one worker at any time.
This type of point in time analysis is the same methodology used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics
in conducting the five yearly Census of Population and Housing.
2.1 Number of employees and positions As at 31 December 2018, there were 14,077 employees working in a total of 15,301 positions.
Childcare Services held the largest number of positions (5,501) followed by Non-residential Care Welfare
Services (3,528) and Residential Aged Care Services (3,112).
2.2 Multiple position holders A small but significant proportion of workers in the Industry concurrently hold more than one position. As
at 31 December 2018, 7.7 per cent of workers held more than one position, with 15% of positions filled
by a multiple position holder.
26 per cent of positions in the Employment Placement Services for Disabled People were held by a
multiple position holder while 22 per cent of positions in Residential Aged Care Services were.
1,239
5,501
40 19
3,528
3,112
1,862
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
IndividualAdvocacy Services
Childcare Services Community AgedCare Services
EmploymentPlacementServices for
Disabled People
Non-residentialCare Welfare
Services
Residential AgedCare Services
Residential CareServices
Number of positions by sub-sector, 31 December 2018
8
The median length of service for Community Sector workers covered by the Scheme was two years. Half of all workers had two years or less of experience, and half had two years or more. The average (mean) length of service could not be accurately determined as the Authority only records service from the date the scheme commenced in 1 July 2010. For Aged Care workers, only service from 1 July 2016 is recorded, as these workers only became eligible to the scheme from that date. Community Sector employees registered with the Scheme become eligible to access long service leave of 4.33 weeks after 5 years (1825 days) of service in the industry. The file generated by the Authority for this analysis did not indicate which eligible employees had already accessed leave.
2.4 Turnover rates Turnover rates are a valuable source of information for workforce planning, as they highlight the burden
of recruitment and orientation efforts, and show the degree of success in retaining workers in their current
positions.
The three-month (1 October 2018-31 December 2018) turnover rate in positions in various sub-sectors
is shown below. Note that a portion of those exiting their positions are moving to other positions in the
same sector or within the Community Services Industry and are then represented as New Workers.
QUARTERLY TURNOVER RATES
SUB-SECTOR NEW WORKERS
RETAINED WORKERS
EXITING WORKERS
Individual Advocacy Services 111 9%
1,057 85%
71 6%
Childcare Services 800 15%
4,194 76%
507 9%
Community Aged Care Services 10 25%
26 65%
4 10%
Employment Placement Services for Disabled People 2 11%
17 89%
0 0%
Non-residential Care Welfare Services 469 13%
2,721 77%
338 10%
Residential Aged Care Services 277 9%
2,635 85%
200 6%
Residential Care Services 221 12%
1,557 84%
84 5%
3,140
2,140
3,190
1,005749
588 552 530
2,183
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Lesss than 1year
1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years ormore
Length of time in the the Industry
9
Excluding those sub-sectors with less than 50 positions, the sub-sectors with the highest proportion of
their workforce as new entrants were Child Care (15 per cent over the three-month period) followed by
Non-residential Care Welfare Services (13 per cent), and Residential Care Services (12 per cent).
Those experiencing the highest exit rates were Non-residential Care Welfare Services (10 per cent over
the three-month period), followed by Child Care (9 per cent).
2.5 Age of workers The median age of workers in the Community Services Industry at 31 December 2018 was 38.5 years.
The sub-sectors with the youngest age profile were Childcare Services (34.9 years), followed by
Employment Placement Services for Disabled People (37.9 years) and Community Aged Care Services
(38.2 years).
The sub-sector with the oldest age profile were Individual Advocacy Services (43.9 years), followed by
Residential Care Services (40.0 years) and Residential Aged Care Services (39.8 years).
Across the Industry, just over 1 in 6 workers were within ten years of the notional retirement age of 65
years.
43.9
34.9
38.2 37.939.2 39.8 40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
IndividualAdvocacy Services
Childcare Services Community AgedCare Services
EmploymentPlacementServices for
Disabled People
Non-residentialCare Welfare
Services
Residential AgedCare Services
Residential CareServices
Median age of workers, by sub-sector, 31 December 2018
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older
Age distribution of workers in Individual Advocacy Services, 31 December 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older
Age distribution of workers in Childcare Services, 31 December 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older
Age distribution of workers in Community Aged Care Services, 31 December 2018
11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older
Age distribution of workers in Employment Placement Services for Disabled People, 31 December 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older
Age distribution of workers in Non-residential Care Welfare Services, 31 December 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older
Age distribution of workers in Residential Aged Care Services, 31 December 2018
12
2.6 Median wages by sub-sector Wages continue to be a significant motivating factor for staff recruitment and retention.1
Wages are a reflection of hours worked, and the Community Sector industry has a lower proportion of
full-time workers. It is not possible to determine which workers within the Authority database are
employed full-time but general information is available from the 2016 Census of Population and Housing.
The Census revealed that in 2016, 52 per cent of Community Sector Industry employees worked full
time, compared to 72 per cent of all workers in the ACT economy. The Census also showed that the
median Industry income was lower than the median income of all ACT workers.
The wages of employees are outlined below. Note that the figures show wages paid per position, so
multiple position holders will naturally collect more than one salary.
1 The State of the Community Services Sector in the Australian Capital Territory, 2016. Prepared for the ACT Council of Social Services by Cortis, N and Blaxland, M from the Social Policy Research Centre
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older
Age distribution of workers in Residential Care Services, 31 December 2018
$54,013
$34,969 $34,002
$50,575
$41,841 $42,723
$33,660
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
IndividualAdvocacy Services
Childcare Services Community AgedCare Services
EmploymentPlacementServices for
Disabled People
Non-residentialCare Welfare
Services
Residential AgedCare Services
Residential CareServices
Median Annual Gross Ordinary Pay
13
Median Annual Gross Ordinary Pay
Median Quarterly Gross Ordinary Pay
Median Daily Pay
Individual Advocacy Services
$54,013 $13,503 $151
Childcare Services $34,969 $8,742 $98
Community Aged Care Services
$34,002 $8,501 $99
Employment Placement Services for Disabled People
$50,575 $12,644 $140
Non-residential Care Welfare Services
$41,841 $10,460 $116
Residential Aged Care Services
$42,723 $10,681 $118
Residential Care Services
$33,660 $8,415 $93
2.7 Median wages by age As at 31 December 2018, the median pay rates increased steadily with age rising to a peak level in the
cohort 45-54 years, presumably as Industry experience increases. The rate of median daily pay
decreases after this age, and it is postulated that this correlates with a drop in average hours worked for
this age group as many workers transition into retirement by gradually decreasing their hours.
Across the ACT economy in 2016, the proportion of employees working full time was 79 per cent for
those aged 50-54 years, 76 per cent for 55 to 59 years and 65 per cent for employees 60 to 64 years of
age.2
Median Annual Gross Ordinary Pay
Median Quarterly Gross Ordinary Pay
Median Daily Pay
Under 25 years of age $24,008 $6,002 $68
25-34 years of age $38,936 $9,734 $109
35-44 years of age $43,560 $10,890 $121
45-54 years of age $47,880 $11,970 $132
55-64 years of age $47,224 $11,806 $130
65 years and older $37,412 $9,353 $103
2 Australian Bureau of Statistics 2016, Census of Population and Housing (2016), TableBuilder. Findings based on use of ABS TableBuilder data
14
2.8 Median wages by length of service Median wages are clearly influenced by length of service in the Industry, as shown below:
Length of Industry service
Median Annual Gross Ordinary Pay
Median Quarterly Gross Ordinary Pay
Median Daily Pay
8-9 years $49,380 12,345 $135
7-8 years $48,448 12,112 $134
6-7 years $42,416 10,604 $117
5-6 years $44,900 11,225 $123
4-5 years $44,360 11,090 $121
3-4 years $39,656 9,914 $109
2-3 years $42,552 10,638 $117
1-2 years $36,152 9,038 $100
1 year or less $27,536 $6,884 $82
2.9 Organisation size As at 31 December 2018, there were 301 registered employers in the Industry. The mode (most frequent)
number of employees per organisation was less than 10, with 1 out of every 3 positions being held by
an organisation of this size.
The median number of positions per employer was 45.
$49,380 $48,448
$42,416 $44,900 $44,360
$39,656 $42,552
$36,152
$27,536
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
8 - 9 years 7 - 8 years 6 - 7 years 5 - 6 years 4 - 5 years 3 - 4 years 2 - 3 years 1 - 2 years 1 year or less
Median Annual Gross Ordinary Pay by length of service in Industry
15
More than 1 in 4 positions (27 per cent) in the Industry were held by the top ten largest employers,
while the proportion of positions held by the top 20 largest employers was 44 per cent.
102
81
58
2418 18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Less than 10employees
10-24 employees 25-49 employees 50-99 employees 100-200 employees More than 200employees
Number of organisations by number of employees, 31 December 2018
16
3. Time series analysis
The time series analysis seeks to identify trends within the overall Industry and various sub-sectors.
Yearly figures were determined by averaging the results of the four quarterly reports.
The number of records and the number of individuals increased steadily over each progressive quarter.
3.1 Number of positions and registered individuals in the Industry The number of positions reported by registered employers has grown between 2013 and 2018, as well as the number of registered individuals.
9,810 10,126 10,543
12,891
15,23516,078
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average number of positions across a reporting period, 2013-2018
9,293 9,472 9,818
11,884
13,90014,594
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average number of individuals across a reporting period, 2013-2018
17
3.2 Number of positions by sub-sector The number of positions reported by registered employers grew steadily for most major sub-sectors throughout the reporting period. The influx of aged care employees can be attributed to their formal eligibility to enter the Scheme from July 2016, while the increase in the employment placement services for disabled people sub-sector follows the trial of the NDIS in the ACT in 2014, and subsequent roll-out.
Number of positions by sub-sector
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Individual Advocacy Services
1,208 1,192 1,176 1,248 1,260 1,283
Childcare Services 4,294
4,533 4,985 5,197 5,501 5,810
Community Aged 0 2 1 4 10 35
Employment Placement Services for Disabled People
0 0 0 0 14 22
Non-residential Care Welfare Services
2,585 2,746 2,926 3,332 3,478 3,722
Residential Aged Care Services
242 292 328 1,713 3,203 3,297
Residential Care Services
941 1,128 1,117 1,396 1,769 1,910
Sub sector not recorded 540 235 11 0 0 0
Total 9,810 10,126 10,543 12,891 15,235 16,078
3.3 Growth rate of registered positions
The number of positions in all sub-sectors has increased substantially over the 2013-2018 reporting period (by 64 per cent), as shown below: As noted earlier, part of the growth in positions can be attributed to more employers becoming aware of their responsibilities under the Long Service Leave (Portable Schemes) Act 2009 rather than solely a growth in new positions within the Industry.
Growth rate of positions by sub-sector, 2013-2018
Individual Advocacy Services 6%
Childcare Services 37%
Non-residential Care Welfare Services 44%
Residential Aged Care Services 1262%
Residential Care Services 103%
Total 64%
18
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median number of positions in Community Services Industry, 2013-2018
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median number of positions in Individual Advocacy Services,
2013-2018
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median number of positions in Childcare Services, 2013-2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median number of positions in Community Aged, 2013-2018
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median number of positions in Non-residential Care Welfare
Services, 2013-2018
19
3.3 Sub-sector share of Industry positions
The Childcare Services sub-sector has remained the largest sub-sector across 2013-2018.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Individual Advocacy Services
12% 12% 11% 10% 8% 8%
Childcare Services 43% 44% 47% 40% 36% 36%
Community Aged 0% < 0.1% < 0.1% < 0.1% < 0.1% 0.2%
Employment Placement Services for Disabled People
0% 0% 0% 0% < 0.1% < 0.1%
Non-residential Care Welfare Services
26% 27% 28% 26% 23% 23%
Residential Aged Care Services
2% 3% 3% 13% 21% 21%
Residential Care Services
10% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12%
Sub-sector not recorded 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3.3 Median ages
The median age of workers in the Industry was 38.1 years in 2018.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median number of positions in Residential Aged Care Services,
2013-2018
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median number of positions in Residential Care Services, 2013-
2018
20
38.1 38.1 38.1 38.2 38.3 38.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Community Services Industry median ages, 2013-2018
43.9 44.1 44.2 44.1 44.3 44.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Individual Advocacy median ages, 2013-2018
22
39.6 39.5 39.4 39.5 39.3 39.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-residential Care Welfare Services median ages, 2013-2018
4142.6 42.1 41.1
39.6 39.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Residential Aged Care Services median ages, 2013-2018
42.3 42.2 42.441.1 40.2 39.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Residential Care Services median ages, 2013-2018
24
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Individual Advocacy Services $43,031 $45,390 $47,078 $47,773 $49,032 $52,554 Childcare Services $26,898 $28,483 $30,355 $31,769 $32,596 $33,332 Non-residential Care Welfare Services $30,297 $31,459 $33,460 $35,822 $38,287 $40,008 Residential Aged Care Services $27,963 $29,397 $30,317 $35,666 $38,532 $40,692 Residential Care Services $29,777 $29,356 $31,285 $33,157 $32,410 $33,892
3.5 Number of workers recording service Over the six-year period, there were 392 unique employers recorded and not all employers remained
active throughout the reporting period.
Between 2013 and 2018, the number of employers increased modestly by 8.6 per cent (from 280 to 304
employers). During the same time period, the number of positions increased by 277 per cent (from 3,558 to
13,410 positions).
Consequently, the median number of positions per employer rose from 13 in 2013 to 44 in 2018.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Number of employers 280 239 258 279 291 304
Number of positions 3,558 4,262 5,088 8,583 10,494 13,410
Median number of positions per employer 13 18 20 31 36 44
Number of employers by number of workers recording service
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Less than 10 employees 189 141 146 132 120 103
10-24 employees 54 58 61 72 74 82
25-49 employees 21 19 28 33 50 59
50-99 employees 11 12 12 21 14 24
100-199 employees 5 8 9 11 20 18
200 employees or more 0 1 2 10 13 18
Total 280 239 258 279 291 304
Proportion of employers by number of workers recording service
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Less than 10 employees 68% 59% 57% 47% 41% 34%
10-24 employees 19% 24% 24% 26% 25% 27%
25-49 employees 8% 8% 11% 12% 17% 19%
50-99 employees 4% 5% 5% 8% 5% 8%
100-199 employees 2% 3% 3% 4% 7% 6%
200 employees or more 0% 0% 1% 4% 4% 6%
25
Over the six-year period, the proportion of employers with less than 10 employees fell by half from 68 per
cent to 34 per cent. The proportion of employers in all other categories increased, including in the categories
of employers with 100 employees or more.
A significant proportion of positions are held by very large organisations.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Proportion of positions held by top 10 largest employers
29% 35% 35% 31% 28% 26%
Proportion of positions held by top 20 largest employers
45% 51% 49% 48% 44% 43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Proportion of employers by number of workers recording service, 2013-2018
Less than 10 employees 10-24 employees 25-49 employees
50-99 employees 100-199 employees 200 employees or more
26
4. Glossary
Analytics Drawing conclusions from raw data.
Baseline A starting point in the data, against which future progress is measured.
Cohort A group of people sharing the same characteristic, such as year of birth.
Construct validity The degree to which a research instrument accurately measures a theoretical
concept.
Internal validity
The degree of rigour related to the research study design, the selection of study instruments, the process of conducting research, and the method of attributing findings to the study intervention rather than other confounding factors.
Mean A mean is derived from adding up all results then dividing this number by the total number of items. The mean is commonly referred to as an average.
Median A median is derived by lining up all results in order from smallest to largest. The median is the middle point at which half of the values (or participants) are above and half are below.
Missing data values A data gap results from participants unintentionally skipping questions, refusing to answer particular questions, or providing information in an incomprehensible manner.
Mode A mode is the response that occurs the most frequently.
Rigour The result of scrupulously and meticulously drawing conclusions solely from evidence, rather than from a pre-determined opinion, conviction or bias.
Trajectory An anticipated future destination, based on an examination of past data trends and known confounding factors (e.g. a workforce population projection).