INE-Spain strategy on population estimates and projections facing the challenge of statistical measure of population

8/20/2019 INE-Spain strategy on population estimates and projections facing the challenge of statistical measure of population

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Working Papers

06 /2010

The views expressed in this working paper are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the Instituto Nacional de Estadística of Spain

First draft: December 2010

This draft: December 2010

INE-Spain strategy on population estimates and

projections facing the challenge of statistical

measure of population

Miguel Ángel Martínez Vidal

Sixto Muriel de la Riva


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INE-Spain strategy on population estimates and projections facing the challenge

of statistical measure of population

Abstract

National Statistics Institute of Spain presents new actions focused on improving theavailable statistical sources of demographic information and providing accuratepopulation figures and punctual, detailed and consistent information on currentdemographic evolution, in a context of general concerns about the current and futureevoluction of the population pyramid.

Keywords

Demographic flows; population now cast; demographic projections

Authors and Affiliations

Miguel Ángel Martínez Vidal y Sixto Muriel de la Riva

Directorate of Population Statistics, National Statistics Institute of Spain

INE.WP: 06/2010 INE-Spain strategy on population estimates and projections facing the challenge of statistical


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I NE -S pa in s tr at egy on p op ul at ion e st im at es a nd p ro je ct io ns:

f ac in g t he c ha ll en ge o f t he s t at is ti ca l m ea su re o f p op ul at io n

M i g ue l Á n g el M a rt í n e z V i d al and S i xt o Mu r ie l de l a R i va

D i r ec t o ra t e o f P o p ul a t io n S t at i s ti c s, N a t io n a l St a t is t i cs I n s ti t u te o f S pa i n

Abstract

T he f ir st y ea rs o f th e X XI st c en tu ry a re re pr es en ti ng a p er io d of e xc ep ti on al

rel evan ce f or Spai n de mo gra ph ic evo lu ti on a nd t hus f or t he de mo gra phi c s t at is t ic s. T he y a re b e in g a b u rn i ng i s su e o f t he a ca d em ic , so ci a l an d p ol it i ca l

d e ba t e, f o cu s ed o n t he p r es si n g i n te r es t i n k no w in g t h e v o lu me a n d s t ru c tu re o f

t h e r e si d en t p op ul a ti on a n d it s mo s t f o re s ee ab l e e v ol u ti o n, a t l e as t, i n t h e n e ar

future.

S uc h e xc ep ti on al it y i s d ee pl y d et er mi na te d b y t he e xt ra or di na ry i nt en si ty o f t he

f o re i gn i m mi g ra t io n f lu x s i nc e t h e e n d of t h e n i ne ti e s, w hi c h ha s g r ea t ly a lt e re d

i t s d em o gr ap h ic s tr u ct u re a n d be h av i ou r s. I t h a s a l so b ec o me S p ai n i n o n e o f t h e

m or e s ig n if i ca n t c as es o f s o ci o de mo g ra p hi c t r an sf o rm at i on o v er t h e O l d W or l d,

g e t ti n g a p l a ce b e t we e n t h e c o un t r ie s wi t h hi g h er p e r ce n t ag e o f fo r e ig n re s i de n t

p o p ul a t i on , l i g ht l y e x c ee d e d b y U S A, a nd b e hi n d C a n ad a a n d A u st r a li a .

T h er ef o re , t h is n ew co n te xt ha s a r is en a c ru c ia l c h al l en g e o ve r t h e I NE wo r k p l a ns : t h e t r a d it i o na l a p pr o a ch t o t h e s t a ti s ti c a l me a s ur e s o f p op u l a ti o n t r ou g h

c la ss ic s c en su se s a nd o cc as io na l lo ng t er m p op ul at io n pr oj ec ti on s s ho ul d b e

r ep la ce d by a m or e m od er n s tr at eg y o f co nt in ue m on it or in g o f d emo gr ap hi c

c ha ng es wh ic h r es ul ts co ul d b e i nt eg ra te d i n u pd at ed cu rr en t p op ul at io n

e s t im a t es a n d d e m og r a ph i c p r o je c t io n s . C o ns e q ue n t ly , n ew I NE a c ti o n pl a n a r e

based on:

- G i vi n g t he b es t s t at i st ic al a p p ro a ch t o t h e c ur re nt r e s id en t p o pu l at io n i n

e v e ry m o me n t ( m o nt h ly s e r ie s ): P o p u l at i o n N o w C as t .

- M ak in g c on ti nu ou s f or ec as t o f t he f ut ur e d em og ra ph ic a nd p op ul at io n

e v o lu t i on : S ho r t T er m P o p ul a t io n P r o je c t io n s ( a n nu a l ly u p d at e d ) an d L o n g

T e rm P o pu l at io n P r oj e ct i on s ( u pd at e d e v er y t hr e e y e ar s) .

W e c an l a be l S pa i n P o pu l at io n N ow C as t a s a s yn t he si s s ta t is t ic , t ha t i nt e gr at e s

r es u lt s f r om d i ff e re n t p ri m ar y s o ur ce s o f i n fo rm at i on i n o r d er t o g e t c on si st e nt

e st im at es o f t he r es id en t p op ul at io n i n S pa in a nd i ts r eg io ns , a t e ve ry p re se nt

m o me n t . P o p u la t i on N o w C a s t u s e s t h e m o st u p da t e d i n f o rm a t io n ab o u t t h e

r e ce n t de m o gr a p hi c ev o l ut i o n ( M on t h ly D e mo g r ap h i c N o w C a st ) a n d i t s r e su l t s

a re b r ok e nd ow n b y b a si c d em og ra p hi c c h ar a ct e ri s ti c s ( s ex , g en e ra t io n , ag e a n d

c it iz en sh ip ). F or a ll t he se r ea so ns , we c ou ld a ss er t th at P op ul at io n N ow Ca st


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rep resent s o ve r t he de mogr ap hy f ield of of fici al st ati sti cs a simila r ro le a s

N at io na l Ac co un ts o ve r e co no mi cs s ta ti st ic s: a s ys te ma ti c an d de ta il ed

r ep r es en t at i on i n a n in te g ra t ed an d c o ns i st e nt sy s te m o f st o ck s a n d f l ux o f t h e r e si d e n t po p ul a t io n a s a w h ol e .

I n a d di ti o n, t a ki n g Po pu l at i on N o w Ca st f o r J an u ar y 1s t

o f t he c ur re nt ye ar a s

s t a rt i n g p o i nt , I N E p r o du c e s:

- S h o rt Te r m P o p ul a t io n P r o je c t io n s , f o r t h e f o l lo w i ng te n y e a rs , a c co r d in g

t o t he f or es ee ab le h yp ot he si s o f d em og ra ph ic e ve nt s e vo lu ti on . I t l et s

u s er s f o ll ow th e c u rr en t de mo g ra ph i c p r og r es s i n S pa i n, it s r e gi on s a n d

p r ov i nc es , t ro u gh p e rm an e nt u p da t ed r e su l ts t o t he l a st a v ai l ab le

i n fo r ma t io n . I N E p ro v id e s i t s i nc e 2 0 08 a n d i ts r e su l ts a re d i ss e mi n at e d i n

a n a n nu a l b a s is .

- L on g T er m P op ul at io n P ro je ct io ns o f S pa in r es id en t p op ul at io n, f or f or ty

years, as si mul ation exerci se about future popul ation, under the

h y p ot h e si s o f c o n ti n u it y i n r e c en t d e m o gr a p hi c t r e n ds . I t w i ll b e c a r ri e d o u t

e v er y t h re e y e ar s .

Fro m a met ho do lo gical sid e, Spai n p opul at io n p roj ecti on s ar e ba sed o n t he

i m pl e me n ta t io n o f c om p on e nt m et ho d u si ng a c o mp l ex m ul t ir e gi on al m o de l 1

w hi c h m ak e s p o ss i bl e t h e t o ta l c on si s te nc y b et w ee n a ll c o ns i de r ed t e r ri t or i al

l ev els an d a co mpl ete c oh er enc e amo ng de mogr ap hics f lu x a nd p opu lati on

s t oc k s f o r e v er y d e mo gr a ph i c b r ea k do wn s ( s ex , g en e ra t io n a nd a g e) . I t b ec o me s

the projecti ve exercise in a compl ete demographic projection, i ncludi ng

p o pu l at i on s to c ks a n d d e mo g ra p hi c s e v en t s b et w ee n i t s r es u lt s.

I n a dd it io n, Sp ai n P op ul at io n N ow Ca st re pr es en ts a g en ui ne a nd a dva nc e

a p p li c a ti o n o f c o m po n en t m e t ho d ( m u lt i r eg i o na l m o d el 1

) , a da pt ed t o t he

a mb it io us o bj ec ti ve o f o ff er in g m on th ly p op ul at io n a n d c u rr en t d e mo gr ap hi c

t r en d s e s ti ma t es . It c o ns i st s o f a m ul t ir e gi o na l c al c ul u s of a o n e y ea r p r oj e ct i on

( au xi li ar y p ro je ct io n) a nd a l in ea r i nt er po la ti on m ec ha ni sm t ha t gu ar an te es a

p e r fe c t c o n si s te n c e b e t we e n p o p u la t i on s t o ck s o f e v e ry d a t e o f t h e c u r re n t y e a r

a n d m o n t h ly d e mo g r ap h i c f l o ws e s ti m at e d .

P o p ul a t i on N o w C a st is c o n si d e re d a s t h e b e s t s t a t is t ic a l a p p ro a c h t o t h e c u r re n t

r es id en t po pu la ti on i n S pa in . Fo r t hi s r ea so n it c on st it ut es t he r ef er en ce

popul ati on fi gures f or al l the other INE products (households surveys,

s o c io e c on o m ic i n d ic a t or s , n a t io n al a cc o u nt s , e t c .) an d t h e o f f ic i a l p o p ul a t i on

f ig ur es t ha t S pa in t ra ns mi ts t o i nt er na ti on al o rg an is ms s uc h a s E ur os ta t,

I nternati onal Monetary Fund and UN.

1 B a s ed o n W i l l ek e n s , F . J . a n d D r e w e , P . ( 1 98 4 ) “A m u l t ir e g i o n al m o d e l f o r r eg i o n a l d e m o g r ap h i c

p r oj e ct i on ” , i n H e id e , H . y Wi l le k en s , F . J. ( ed ) Demographic Research and Spatial Policy , A c ad e m ic

P r es s , L o nd o n .


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1 Int rod uct ion

S in ce t he m id dl e o f t he l as t c en tu ry t he m ai n c on ce rn ab ou t t he c ha ll en ge s o f n a t i on a l o f f i ce s o f s t at i s ti c s h a d be e n s t r on g l y b i a s ed t o wa r d e c o no m y f i e ld . Th e

devel opment of harmoni zed and standard account systems and i ndi cators, whi ch

g iv e a d et ai le d a nd s ys te ma ti c m ea su re o f t he e co no my a s a w ho le ( pr od uc ti on ,

i n v es t m en t a n d c o n su m e f l o ws , c a p it a l a n d l ab o ur f o r ce s t o ck s , p r ic e s e v o lu t i on ,

e tc .) , wa s p ro fe ss ed a s t he l ea di ng g o al f o r n at io na l of fi ce a nd i n te rn at io na l

s t at is t ic al a u th o ri ti e s. A h u ge c at al o gu e o f s ta t is ti c al a c ti o n a n d pr o du c ts f o un d

t h e i r m e et i n g p o i nt i n t h e d e v el o p me n t o f n a t io n a l a c co u n ts sy s t em s d u r in g t h e

l as t q ua rt er o f t he X Xth

century.

O n t he ot he r h an d, the w or ri es a bo ut d em ogr ap hi c f ie ld o f s tat is tic s h as b ee n

a ri se n wi th a l im it ed r el ev an ce , f oc us ed on t he m ea su re me nt of vi ta l e ve nt s

( bi rt hs a nd d ea th s) a nd t he h is to ri c a nd l on g t er m e vo lu ti on o f f er ti li ty a nd

m or ta li ty . On ly o nc e i n a w hi le , at te nt io n w as p ai d o n t he q ue st io n “H ow ma nya re w e? ” w it h o c ca si o n o f e ve r y p o pu l at io n c en s us .

H o we v e r, d u ri n g t he l a s t ye a r s a g e n er a l in t e re s t ab o u t th e c u r re n t a nd f u t ur e

e vo lu ti on o f th e p op ul at io n h as e me rg ed . I n p ar ti cu la r, S pa ni sh m ed ia h av e

g a th e re d i n m an y o c ca si o ns a g e ne ra l iz e d wo rr yi n g ab o ut i t , as a s ym bo l o f a n

i ntense pol i ti cal, academi c and soci al debate.

F i rs tl y, t he c o ns ol i da ti o n o f Sp a in a s a s i gn if i ca n t m ig r at o ry d e st i ny d u ri n g t h e

f ir st de ca de of t he ne w c en tu ry s ho ul d b e p oi nt ed o ut as t he m ai n r ea so n fo r

s uc h g ro wi ng i nt er es t. N on et he le ss, t hi s wa s o nl y t he l ig ht t hat d ro ve t o a

w in di ng r od e: H ow c an w e d ea l w it h t he i ne xo ra bl e p op ul at io n a ge in g? I s

m i gr a ti o n t h e k e y s ol u ti o n f o r o u r d e pr es se d p op u la t io n p yr a mi d ? W ha t a b ou t

f er ti li ty ? A re o ur c ur re nt f er ti li ty l ev el s e no ug h t o h av e a f ea si bl e d em og ra ph icfuture?

S ec on dl y, t he c ha ng ea bl e c ur re nt d em og ra ph ic e vo lu ti on , m ai nl y d ue t o t he

u n pr e di ct a bl e b eh a vi ou r o f t h e i n te r na t io n al m i gr a ti o n p he n om en a , b ro ke t h e

c la ss ic s tr at eg y o f g iv in g n at io na l po pu la ti on f ig ur es t hr ou gh s po ra di c

p o pu l at i on c en s us a n d p o pu l at i on p r oj e ct i on s f o r t h e p o st -c e ns u s p e ri o d.

A nd th ir dl y, a ll o f t he se i ss ue s a re d ec is iv e q ue st io ns f or t he p ur po se o f t he

m a cr o e co n o mi c a n al y s is a n d r e s ea r c h . In f a c t, w e s h o ul d n o t f or g e t t ha t , o ve r

a n a bo ve i ts ow n r el ev an ce , t he s tr on g s en si ti vi ty o f t he c ur re nt an d l on g t er m

e vo lu ti on o f s ev er al e co no mi c i nd ic at or s d et er mi na te s, n ow ad ay s, t he

f u n da m e nt a l m o ti v a ti o n f o r i m p ro v i ng t h e c a pa c i ti e s o f t h e o f f ic i al s t a ti s t ic s t o

m on i to r a n d e x pl ai n t he d e mo g ra p hi c c ha n ge .

T he se a re t he r ea so ns w hy N at io na l S ta ti st ic s I ns ti tu te o f S pa in a nd , i n ge ne ra l,

t he n ati on al of fi ce s o f s ta ti st ic s, ha ve o pe ne d t he X XIth

ce ntu ry with a new

p r e ss i n g a n d u n av o i da b le t a r ge t s o v e r t h e f i e ld o f d e m o g r ap h y :

1 .T he i mp ro ve me nt o f th e s ta ti st ic al s ou rc es o f de mo gr ap hi c i nf or ma ti on ,

b ro ad en in g t he d et ai l a nd q ua li ty o f t he ir r es ul ts a nd r ed uc in g t he t ra di ti on al

d e l ay i n p r o du c i ng d a t a.


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2 . A d ef ini ti ve r is e i n th e c on fi de nc e o f t he st at is ti ca l s ys te m i n gi vi ng a cc ur at e

p o pu l at i on f ig u re s a n d p u nc t ua l, de t ai l ed an d c o ns is t en t i nf o rm at i on o ve r t h e

c u rr e nt de mo g ra p hi c e v ol u ti o n a nd ev e ry c o mp o ne n t o f t h e d em o gr ap h icc h a ng e ( f e rt i l it y , m o rt a l i ty a n d m ig r a t io n s) .

T hese t wo a ims l ead of fici al st at isti c t o se e un av oi dab le t he p romo ti on o f

s ys te ma ti c sy st em s o f d em og ra ph ic i n fo rm at io n t ha t, w i th a s im il ar r ol e t ha n

n at io nal a cc ou nt s s ys te ms i n e co no mic s ta ti st ic s, i nt eg ra te s c on si st en t

i n fo r ma t io n a b ou t p op u la ti o n s t oc ks a n d d em og r ap h ic f l ow s p ro v id e d b y s u ch

i m pr o ve d s o ur ce s , g i vi n g t o t he s o ci e ty u p da t ed a nd t im el y i nf o rm at i on a b ou t

t he c ur re nt d emo gr ap hi c c ha nge a nd i ts f utu re i mp li ca ti on s, a nd cl os in g t he

c o h er e n t ci r c le o f i n f or m at i o n .

S uc h f ee li ng m ar ks t he c ou rs e o f a ct io n o f t he n ew pl an s o f t he N at io na l

S t at is t ic a l I n st i tu t e o f S pa in ov er t h e p r es e nt a n d t h e f ut u re o f t h e d em og ra p hi c

s t a ti s t ic s . A f i r st a p pr o a ch t o th i s mo d e rn c o nc e p ti o n of t h e d e mo g r ap h i ci nf or ma ti on s yst em i s d ef in ed i n the n ew n at ion al s tra te gy o ver t he f iel d of

popul ati on estimates and projecti ons, toget her with a first package of

i m pr o v em e n ts o f t he d e mo g r ap h i c i n f o rm a t io n in f r as t r uc t u re a n d s o u rc e s .


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2 . D e mo gr ap hi c s ou r ce s: c at al og ue f or a ne w i nf ra s tr u ct ur e o f

demographic information

2 . 1 V i t a l S t a t is t i c s

V it a l S ta t is ti c s i s a n s t at i st i ca l a c ti o n w it h a l on g t r ad i ti o n i n t h e S pa ni s h s y st e m,

w hi ch qu an ti fy t he bi rt hs , d ea th s a nd m ar ri ag es h ap pe ne d i n Sp ai n a n i ts

r e g io n s a l o ng a c a l en d a r y e a r, d i s ag g r eg a t e d by b a s ic c h a ra c t e ri s t ic s . De f i n it i ve

f ig ur es f or t he r ef er en ce y ea r t a re a v ai l ab le i n D ec e mb e r o f t h e y ea r 1+t .

Fo r ev ery n at io nal of fice, Vit al St ati sti cs ar e a f un damen tal too l f or t he

r et ro sp ec ti ve a na ly si s o f b a si c d e mo gr ap hi cs p he no me na ( ma in ly f er ti li ty a nd

m or t al i ty ), w h ic h p o pu l at io n p ro j ec t io n s e xe rc i se s a r e t r ad i ti o na ll y b a se d o n .

N ev e rt h el es s, t h e d e la y i n a v ai l ab il i ty o f d e fi n it i ve f i gu re s c o ul d b e s t re ss e d a so n e i m p or t a nt l i m i ta t i on o f t h e s es s t a ti s ti c al p r o d uc t n o w ad a y s, i n a c o n te x t o f

q u i ck l y c h a ng i n g d e mo g ra p h i c e v o lu t i on .

2.2 Population register (Padrón)

M un i ci p al p o p ul a ti o n r eg i st e rs a re t h e a d mi n is t ra t iv e f i le w h er e e ve ry i n ha b it a nt

o f t he m un ic ip al it y s ho ul d b e r eg is te re d . T he y a re b ui lt , k ep t a nd r ev is ed b y t he

l oc al a ut ho ri ty a nd t he y a re o bl ig ed to tr an smi t t o I NE a ll va ri at io ns i n t he

r eg is te r o n a m on th ly b as is , t ha t a ll ow s I NE t o c en tr al iz e t he m an ag em en t a nd

c o o rd i n at i o n o f l oc a l re g i st e r s, f o l lo w in g t h e S p an i s h la w .

N ow ad ay s, b ey on d it s a dmi ni st ra ti ve p ur po se a nd r e st ri ct io ns , Padrón

represents, from a stati sti cal poi nt of vi ew , an essenti al el ement of the nati onal

s ta ti st ic al sy st em , p ri nc ip al ly r eg ar di ng t he c on ti nu in g m on it or in g o f t he

m i gr a ti o n f l ow s, wh i ch se t IN E in a e x ce p ti on a l s it u at i on f or i ts c ap ac i ti e s t o

m ea su r e m ig r at io n f l ow s o v er t h e E u ro p ea n a n d i n te rn a ti o na l c o nt ex t , s pi t e t h e

e x t ra o r di n a ry d i m en s i on o f th e m i g ra t i on e ve n t i n S p a in .

2.3 Basic Demographic Indicators

C ol le ct io n o f i nd ic at or s w hi ch d es cr ib es t he r et ros pe ct iv e e vo lu ti on o f b as ic

d e m og r a ph i c p h e no m e na ( f e rt i l it y , m o rt a l i ty a n d n u p ci a li t y ), b r o ke n d ow n b y

b asi c de mo gra phi c ch arac teri sti cs a nd by reg io ns a nd p ro vi nce s. Sp ecia lm en ti on s ho ul d b e d on e f or t he a nn ua l c al cu la ti on o f l i fe t ab le s, t h ro u gh a n ew

a n d a dv a nc e d me t h od o l og y s i nc e t h e l a s t ye a r .

A l l o f th e m a r e c a r ri e d o u t u s i ng f i na l fi g u re s o f th e V i t al S t a ti s t ic s , s o de f i ni t i ve

d at a a re a va il ab le o ne y ea r a ft er t he e nd o f re fe re nc e c al en da r y ea r t oo .


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2.4 Monthly Demographic Now Cast

T h e N a ti o n al St a t is t i cs I n s ti t ut e o f S p a in st a r te d t h e d e v el o p me n t o f t h i s p r o j ec t

i n 2 0 07 , wi t h t he e a ge rn e ss t o e n ha n ce t h e d e mo g ra p hi c i n fo rm at i on p ro v id ed t o

s o c ie t y, u n d e r t h i s n e w p er s p ec t i ve o f g r ea t g e n er a l i n te r e st o n d e m og r ap h y a n d

i t s s o ci o ec o no mi c i mp a ct . I n p ar t ic ul a r, M on t hl y D em og r ap h ic N o w C as t b ri n gs

i n to d e mo g ra ph i c s ta ti st i cs f i el d a m on t hl y b as e , v e ry i n no va t iv e , b ut t r ad it i on a l

i n e c o no m y s t a ti s t ic s .

On e o f the more sig nif ica nt c on diti on s in c arry in g out a ccu ra te p opu lat ion

e s ti ma t es a n d u p da t ed p r oj e ct i on s , sp ec ia ll y i n a c o nt e xt o f s tr on g i n st a bi l it y o f

d e mo g ra p hi c e v ol u ti o n, i s t h e a v ai l ab il i ty o f s ta t is ti c al i n f or ma t io n a b ou t t he

m o st r e c e nt e v o l ut i o n o f d e mo g r a ph i c p h en o m en a . A l th o u gh i t i s q u i te c l e ar t h a t

b as ic d emo gr ap hi c so ur ce s h av e r ea ch ed i mp or ta nt a ch ie ve me nt s i n t he ir

quality, the del ay i n the avai l abi li ty of defini tive results continues bei ngi n su ff i ci e nt t o f a ce s uc h c ha n ge a bl e r e al i ty . B ey o nd t h e m on t hl y a n al y si s, w e

f i nd t h e m ai n r ea s on to e x is t o f M on t hl y D em og r ap h ic No w C a st he r e: th e

r ed u ct i on i n t h e d el a y o f a v ai la bi l it y o f b a si c d e mo g ra p hi c i n fo r ma t io n s i nc e t h e

r e f er e n ce d a t es .

2.4.1 GENERA L METH OD OLOGY

R e ga r di n g t o m et h od o lo g y, w e c an a s se r t t h at t h e o wn na t ur e o f t h es e m on t hl y

d e mo g ra p hi c e s ti m at e s h a s n o th i ng t o d o w it h c l as si c a t r ad it i on a l t e ch n iq u es o f

d emog rap hi c ana lysis an d pro sp ect in g. T he y are no t b ased on o bserv ed

r eg ul ar it ie s o r t re nd s i n d em og ra ph ic b eh av io ur s, b ut o n m ea su ri ng c er ta in

r eg u la r it i es i n i n fo rm at i on c ir cu it , th a t i s t o s a y, i n t h ei r a d mi n is tr a ti ve p a th f r om

o r i gi n a l s o u rc e s ( C iv i l R e g is t e rs i n c a s e o f v i ta l e v en t s a n d L o ca l P ad ró n in case

of mi grati ons) to I NE databases.

B a si c al l y, t h e e st i ma t io n i n a g i ve n m om en t o f t h e t o ta l e v en t s h ap p en e d i n a

g i v en mo n t h , i s c a r ri e d o u t t a ki n g t h e p a r ti a l n u m be r o f su c h e v e nt s a r ri v e d u n t i l

t h e e s ti ma t io n t i me i n I NE da t ab a se s a n d a n expanding coefficient b as e d o n t h e

p as t r eg ul ar it y i n t he d el ay i n t he a rr iv al o f t hi s i nf or ma ti on fr om i ts o ri gi na l

a dm in is tr at iv e s ou rc e. I n o th er w or ds , s uc h e x p an d i n g c o ef f i ci e nt r ep li es t he

m on t hl y r h yt h m i n t h e a r ri v al of i nf o rm at i on o f t h e p r ev i ou s y e ar :

D ef i ni n g t h e v a ri a bl e d e la y a s t he n u mb e r of m on t hs t h at a n ev e nt h a pp e ne d i n

a g i v en m o n th t a ke s in a rr i v in g t o I NE d a ta b a se s a n d g i v i ng1a,m

E−

t h e t o t al e ve n t s

(bi rths, deaths, marri ages, mi grati ons, etc. ) happened duri ng the month m of the

year 1a − and gi ven r 1a,mE − t he p ar ti al nu mb er o f s uc h e ve nt s r ec ei ve d i n I NE

d a t ab a s e u n t il t h e delay r , we d ef in e t he e x p an d i ng c o ef f i ci e n t corresponding to

t he m on th m o f t he yea ra in t he del ay r :

r1a,m

1a,mra,m

E

ECE

−

−=


9/25

Then, gi ven r k,a,mE t he t o ta l n u mb er o f ev e nt s h a pp e ne d d u ri n g t h e m on t h m of

the year a , i n a s ub po pu la ti on d et er mi na te d b y d em og ra ph ic c ha ra ct er is ti cs

k r ec e iv e d i n I NE d at a ba se s u nt il t h e del ay r , t he e st im at e o f t he t ot al ev en ts

h ap pe ne d i n t he m on th m o f th e y e ar a in subpopulation k , k,a,mÊ , is:

rk,a,m

ra,mk,a,m ECEÊ ⋅=

B es id es , o pp os it e t he a pp ea ri ng r an do mn es s o f a dm in is tr at iv e p ro ce ss , t he

d e si g ne d m et h od ol o gy b e tr ay s i t se lf e xt r em el y r ob u st , ke e pi n g i n m in d t h at f ew

mo nt hs a fte r t he r ef ere nc e d at e m os t o f e ve nt s h av e b ee n r eg ist er ed in IN E

d a t ab a s es . I n f a c t, t h e n u mb e r o f e s t i ma t e d e v en t s i s m i n im u m. F u r t h er m o re , w e

s ho ul d e mp ha si ze o th er d ec is iv e f ea tu re o f t he se a dv an ce d e st im at es : t he

e s t im a ti o n e rr o r i s d e cr e a si n g wi t h t he g a p b et w ee n t h e r e f er e n ce m o nt h a n d th e

m on t h o f es t im at i on . S o M o nt h ly D em o gr a ph i c N o w C as t a r e c o nv e rg e nt t o

d e f i ni t i ve r e s ul t s o f b a si c d e mo g r ap h i c s t at i s ti c s.

F in al ly , i t s ho ul d b e c la ri fi ed th at , i n ca se o f mi gr at io ns , s uc h s im pl e

me th od ol og y i s n ot en ou gh . B as ic al ly , i t i s d ue t o t he f ac t t hat Mo nt hl y

D e mo g r ap h i c N o w C a st h as t h e v a ri a t io n s o b s er v ed i n l o c al p op u l at i o n r e gi s t e rs

l i k e o r i gi n a l s o u rc e , a s i t h a s b e e n m e n ti o n ed b e f or e . H o we v e r, u n d er - r ec o r d o f

e xt er na l e mi gr at io ns m ov em en ts i s a g en er al la ck o f n at io nal p op ul at io n

r e g is t e rs . A s a c o n se q ue n c e, s o m e a d d it i o na l s t a ti s t ic a l p ro c e du r e a r e n e e d ed t o

c o mp l et e t h e e st i ma t io n p r o ce s s, f o r e x am p le : s t a ti s ti c al i m pu t at i on o f t h e e x ac t

d a te o f d e pa rt u re f or e mi g ra t io ns c o un te d t h ro u gh a d mi n is t ra t iv e c or re ct i on s i n

p o pu l at i on r e gi st e r a n d, t he r ef o re , no t d e cl a re d by t h e e mi g ra n t; e st im at i on

p ro ce du re s o f f in al re so lu ti on o f e xp ir y r eg is tr at io n p ro ce ss es ; an d u se o f

a u xi li a ry s am p li n g a ct i on s i n e st i ma ti n g t he p a rt of t h e f lo w n o t c ov er e d b y t h ePadrón .

2 . 4 .3 M O N T HL Y D E M OG R AP H I C N O W C A S T R E S U LT S

B i rt h s a n d f e rt i li t y i n di c at or s . La s t u p da te d r e su l ts :

Monthly births by mother's nationality

0

5.000

10.000

15.00020.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

45.000

50.000

J a n u

a r y 0

7

M a r

c h 0 7

M a y 0

7

J u l y

0 7

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 7

N o v e

m b e

r 0 7

J a n u

a r y 0

8

M a r

c h 0 8

M a y 0

8

J u l y

0 8

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 8

N o v e

m b e

r 0 8

J a n u

a r y 0

9

M a r

c h 0 9

m a y

o - 0 9

J u l y

0 9

Month

T o t a l a n

d

n a t i o n a l s

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

N o n

n a t i o n a l s

Tot al Nationals Non nat ionals

Gross Fertility Rate by mother's citizenship

9,00

9,50

10,00

10,50

11,00

11,50

12,00

F e b 0

7 - J a

n 0 8

M a r 0 7

- F e b 0 8

A p r 0 7 - M

a y 0 8

M a y 0 7 -

A p r 0 8

J u n 0 7 - M a

y 0 8

J u l 0 7

- J u n

0 8

A u g 0 7 -

J u l 0

8

S e p 0 7 -

A u g 0

8

O c t 0 7 -

S e p 0

8

N o v 0 7 -

O c t 0 8

D e c 0 7 - N o

v 0 8

J a n - D

e c 2 0

0 8

F e b 0

8 - J a

n 0 9

M a r 0 8

- F e b 0 9

A p r 0 8 - M a

r 0 9

M a y 0

8 - A p

r 0 9

J u n 0

8 - M a

y 0 9

J u l 0 8

- J u n

0 9

A u g 0

8 - J u l 0

9

12 month period

T o t a l a n d

n a t i o n a l s

18,20

18,40

18,60

18,80

19,00

19,20

19,40

19,60

19,80

N o n n

a t i o n a l s

Total Nationals Non nationals


10/25

Total Fertility Rate by mother's citizenship

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

F e b 0

7 - J a n 0

8

M a r 0 7

- F e b 0 8

A p r 0 7 - M

a y 0 8

M a y 0 7

- A p r 0 8

J u n 0 7 - M

a y 0 8

J u l 0 7

- J u n 0 8

A u g 0 7 -

J u l 0 8

S e p 0 7 -

A u g 0 8

O c t 0 7

- S e p 0 8

N o v 0 7 -

O c t 0 8

D e c 0 7 - N o

v 0 8

J a n - D e

c 2 0 0

8

F e b 0

8 - J a n 0

9

M a r 0 8

- F e b 0 9

A p r 0 8 - M

a r 0 9

M a y 0 8

- A p r 0 9

J u n 0 8 - M

a y 0 9

J u l 0 8

- J u n 0 9

A u g 0 8 - J u l 0 9

12 month period

T o t a l a n d

n a t i o n a

l s

1,700

1,720

1,740

1,760

1,780

1,800

1,820

1,840

N o n

n a t i o n a l s

Total Nat ionals Non nat ionals

Mean Age at Childbearing by mother's citizenship

30,40

30,60

30,80

31,00

31,20

31,40

31,60

31,80

F e b 0 7 -

J a n 0

8

M a r 0 7 - F e

b 0 8

A p r 0 7 - M a

y 0 8

M a y

0 7 - A p r 0 8

J u n 0 7 - M a y 0 8

J u l 0 7

- J u n 0 8

A u g 0 7 -

J u l 0 8

S e p 0 7 - A u

g 0 8

O c t 0 7

- S e p 0 8

N o v 0 7 -

O c t 0 8

D e c 0 7 - N o

v 0 8

J a n - D e

c 2 0 0

8

F e b 0

8 - J a n 0 9

M a r 0 8 - F e

b 0 9

A p r 0 8 - M a r 0 9

M a y 0 8

- A p r 0 9

J u n 0 8 - M a y 0 9

J u l 0 8

- J u n 0 9

A u g 0

8 - J u l 0 9

T o t a l a n d n a t i o n a l s

27,70

27,80

27,90

28,00

28,10

28,20

28,30

28,40

N o n n a t i o n a l s


D e a th s a n d m o r ta l i t y i n d i c at o rs . L a s t u p d at e d r e s ul t s :

Monthly deaths by citizenship

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.00045.000

J a n u

a r y 0 7

M a r

c h 0 7

M a y 0 7

J u l y

0 7

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 7

N o v e m b e

r 0 7

J a n u

a r y 0

8

M a r

c h 0 8

M a y 0

8

J u l y

0 8

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 8

N o v e m b e

r 0 8

J a n u

a r y 0

9

M a r

c h 0 9

m a y

o - 0 9

J u l y

0 9

Month


0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200



Gross Mortality Rate by citizenship

7,80

8,00

8,20

8,40

8,60

8,80

9,00

9,20

9,40

9,609,80

F e b 0

7 - J a

n 0 8

M a r 0 7

- F e b 0 8

A p r 0 7 - M a

y 0 8

M a y 0 7 -

A p r 0 8

J u n 0 7 - M a

y 0 8

J u l 0 7

- J u n

0 8

A u g 0 7 -

J u l 0 8

S e p 0 7 -

A u g 0

8

O c t 0 7 -

S e p 0

8

N o v 0 7 -

O c t 0 8

D e c 0 7 - N o

v 0 8

J a n - D

e c 2 0

0 8

F e b 0

8 - J a

n 0 9

M a r 0 8

- F e b 0 9

A p r 0 8 - M a

r 0 9

M a y 0

8 - A p

r 0 9

J u n 0

8 - M a

y 0 9

J u l 0 8

- J u n

0 9

A u g 0

8 - J u l 0 9

12 monthsperiod


1,65

1,70

1,75

1,80

1,85

1,90

1,95

2,00



Infant Mortality Rate by sex

2,90

3,10

3,30

3,50

3,70

3,90

4,10

J a n - D

e c 2 0

0 7

F e b 0

7 - J a

n 0 8

M a r 0 7

- F e b 0 8

A p r 0 7 - M a

y 0 8

M a y 0 7 -

A p r 0 8

J u n 0 7 - M a

y 0 8

J u l 0 7

- J u n

0 8

A u g 0 7 -

J u l 0

8

S e p 0 7 -

A u g 0

8

O c t 0 7 -

S e p 0

8

N o v 0 7 -

O c t 0 8

D e c 0 7 - N o

v 0 8

J a n - D

e c 2 0

0 8

F e b 0

8 - J a

n 0 9

M a r 0 8

- F e b 0 9

A p r 0 8 - M a

r 0 9

M a y 0

8 - A p

r 0 9

J u n 0

8 - M a

y 0 9

J u l 0 8

- J u n

0 9

A u g 0

8 - J u l 0

9

12 months period

Total Males Females

Life Expectancy at Birth by sex

77,60

77,65

77,70

77,75

77,80

77,85

77,90

77,95

78,0078,05

78,10

J a n - D

e c 2 0 0 7

F e b 0

7 - J a

n 0 8

M a r 0 7 - F e

b 0 8

A p r 0 7 - M

a y 0 8

M a y 0 7 -

A p r 0 8

J u n 0 7 - M

a y 0 8

J u l 0 7

- J u n

0 8

A u g 0 7 -

J u l 0 8

S e p 0 7 -

A u g 0

8

O c t 0 7

- S e p 0 8

N o v 0 7 -

O c t 0 8

D e c 0 7 - N o

v 0 8

J a n - D

e c 2 0

0 8

F e b 0

8 - J a

n 0 9

M a r 0 8 - F e

b 0 9

A p r 0 8 - M a

r 0 9

M a y 0

8 - A p

r 0 9

J u n 0

8 - M

a y 0 9

J u l 0 8

- J u n

0 9

A u g 0

8 - J u l 0 9

12 months period

M a l e s

84,00

84,05

84,10

84,15

84,20

84,25

F e m a l e s

Males Females

M o nt h l y m i g ra t i o n f l o w s. La s t u p d at e d r e s u lt s :

Monthly emigrants by citizenship

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

J a n u a r y 0 7

M a r c h 0 7

M a y 0 7

J u l y 0 7

S e p t e m b e r 0 7

N o v e m b e r 0 7

J a n u a r y 0 8

M a r c h 0 8

M a y 0 8

J u l y 0 8


N o v e m b e r 0 8

J a n u a r y 0 9

M a r c h 0 9

M a y 0 9

J u l y 0 9


N o v e m b e r 0 9

J a n u a r y 1 0

Month

T o t a l a n d n o n n a t i o n a l s

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

N a t i o n a l s

Total Non nationals Nationals

Monthly inmigrants by citizenship

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

J a n u

a r y 0 7

M a r c h 0

7

M a y

0 7

J u l y

0 7

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 7

N o v e

m b e

r 0 7

J a n u a r y 0

8

M a r c h 0

8

M a y

0 8

J u l y

0 8

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 8

N o v e m b e

r 0 8

J a n u

a r y 0

9

M a r c h 0

9

M a y

0 9

J u l y

0 9

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 9

N o v e

m b e

r 0 9

J a n u

a r y 1

0

T o t a l a n d

n o n

n a t i o n a l s

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Month

N a t i o n a l s

Total Non nat ionals Nat ionals


11/25

Monthly net migration flow by citizenship

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

J a n u a r y 0 7

M a r

c h 0 7

M a y

0 7

J u l y

0 7

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 7

N o v e m b e

r 0 7

J a n u

a r y 0

8

M a r

c h 0 8

M a y

0 8

J u l y

0 8

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 8

N o v e m b e

r 0 8

J a n u

a r y 0

9

M a r

c h 0 9

M a y

0 9

J u l y

0 9

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 9

N o v e m b e

r 0 9

J a n u a r y 1

0

Month

T o t a l a n d

n o n

n a t i o n a

l s

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

N a t i o n a l s

Total Non nat ionals Nat ionals

Monthly inter-provinces migrants

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

J a n u

a r y 0 7

M a r

c h 0 7

M a y 0 7

J u l y

0 7

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 7

N o v e

m b e r

0 7

J a n u

a r y 0

8

M a r

c h 0 8

M a y 0 8

J u l y

0 8

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 8

N o v e

m b e r

0 8

J a n u

a r y 0

9

M a r

c h 0 9

M a y 0 9

J u l y

0 9

S e p t

e m b e

r 0 9

N o v e

m b e r

0 9

J a n u

a r y 1

0

Month

Total Non nationals Nationals


12/25

3 T he in te gr at i on of de mo g ra p hi c i nf or ma t io n: p op ul at i on es ti ma te s

and projections

T he re i s n o d ou bt t hat t he e xp os ed i mp ro ve me nt s i n d em og ra ph ic d at a ha ve

i n cr ea s ed t h e q u an t it y a nd q u al i ty o f a v ai la b le i n fo r ma t io n a b ou t t he p a st a n d

m os t re ce n t de mo g ra ph i c p ro g re s s o f Sp a in p o pu l at i on . Ho we v er , a d e ci s iv e

c ha ll en ge f or m od er n d em og ra ph ic s ta ti st ic s w il l b e t o i nt eg ra te a ll st at is ti ca l

i n pu t s i n a s ys t em at ic a n d c o he re n t s ys t em o f i n fo r ma t io n w h ic h l e t n a ti o na l

s t at is t ic s o ff i ce s e x pl ai n e v er y c o mp o ne nt o f t h e d em o gr ap h ic c h an ge a nd , e v e n

s o , wo rk o u t t he v al u e o f s uc h d e te r mi n an t i nf o rm at i on . D e fi n it e ly , t h e i nt e rn a l

c o h er e n ce a n d co n s is t en c y o f i nf o r ma t i on c o nt r ib u t e t o g et i t re l i a bl e e n o u gh f o r

u s e rs a n d g e n er a l p u b l ic . In f a ct , th e e x p er i e nc e o f n at i o na l of f i ce s in r i si n g an

h ar mo ni ze d Na ti on al A cc ou nt s Sy st em s a s i nt eg ra ti ng a nd s um ma ri zi ng

i n st r um en t o f e c on o mi c i n fo r ma t io n, g e ne r al ly a n d w el l a c ce pt e d b y p u bl ic a n d

p r iv a te u s er s an d a na l ys t s a s of f ic i al e co n om ic d a ta , is t h e b et t er w it ne s s o f su c hasserti on.

A f i rs t a t te m pt t o l e ad S pa n is h d em og r ap h ic s t at is ti c s t ow a rd s s uc h m od e rn

concept c rystall izes i n the new I NE strategy on popul ations estimates and

p r oj ec t io n s, fo r ma l ly s t at e d i n N a ti o na l P l an of S t at is ti c s 2 0 9- 2 01 2 a nd th e

r e sp e c ti v e A n nu a l P r o gr a m s2

, w hi ch i s b as ed o n:

1 . T h e d ev el o pm en t o f c ur r en t p o pu l at i on e st i ma t es c o nt i nu o us ly u pd a te d w i th

t he l ast a va il ab le i nf or ma ti on a bo ut d em og ra ph ic d ev el op me nt s: S pa in

P o pu l at i on N ow C as t.

2 . A n ew w ay o f fo cu si ng t he p ro du ct io n o f fu tu re p op ul at io n p ro je ct io ns i n a

p e r io d i c b a si s : Sh o r t Te r m a n d L o n g Te r m P o p ul a t io n P r oj e c ti o n s.

B ot h re p re s en t a fi r st a p pr o ac h to t he o b je ct i ve o f g et ti n g a m o re i n te g ra t ed

s y s te m o f d e m og r a ph i c i n f or m a ti o n .

3.1 Current population estimates

P o p ul a t i on N o w C a s t i s t h e s t at i st i ca l a ct i on t h at IN E h a s d e ve l op ed du r in g t h e

l a st y ea r s t o fa c e t h e c ha l le n ge o f me a su r in g t h e c u rr e nt r es i de n t p o pu l at i on i n

o ur c ou nt ry a nd i n e ve ry r eg io n an d pr ov in ce , on ce t he u ne xp ec te d i nt en si ty o f

i m mi g r at i o n p h e no m e na s h o ok t h e p a s t q u i et d e mo g r ap h i c e v o lu t i on . Bo t h , t h e

N at i on a l S ta t is ti c s S ys t em a n d e xt e rn a l u se r s o f o f fi c ia l s t at i st i cs , r e qu i re d

p o pu l at i on f i gu r es p e rm an e nt l y u pd a te d w it h t he p r es e nt d e mo g ra p hi c r e al i ty .P o pu l at i on N ow C as t w as th e a n sw e r f r om I NE .

T hi s s tat is ti ca l pr od uc t ha s s om e g en er al f ea tu re s, wh ic h de te rm in at e i ts

s i gn if i ca nc e a s w el l a s s e t i t s o w n l im i ts :

1 . P op ul at io n N ow C as t c on st it ut es a s yn th es is s ta ti st ic , wh ic h u se s s ev er al

p ri ma ry s ou rc es o f i nf or ma ti on , w ho se r es ul ts a re i nt eg ra te d i n t he e st im at io n

2 http://www.ine.es/en/normativa/leyes/plan/legplan_en.htm


13/25

m e ch a n is m g i v in g p l a ce t o c o n si s t en t es t i ma t es o f t h e r e s id e n t p o p ul a t io n s t o ck

at the pre sen t mo ment an d o f t he e stima te d d emo gr aph ic f low s whi ch

d et er mi na te t he p op ul ati on e vo lu ti on , al l of t he m b ro ke nd own b y b as icc h a ra c t er i s ti c s l i k e s e x, y e a r o f b i r th a n d a g e.

2 . P o pu l a ti o n N o w C a s t ma k e s u s e o f t h e m o st u p d at e d a va i l ab l e i n fo r ma t i on o n

the recent demographi c evol uti on: Vi tal Stati sti cs, regi stered vari ati ons i n Padrón

a n d, s p e ci a ll y , t h e l a st r e su l ts o f t h e M on t hl y D em og r ap h ic N o w C a s t.

3 . P op ul at io n N ow C as t a re c al cu la te d e ve ry q ua rt er , f ew d ay s a ft er t he e nd o f

t h e q u ar t er , pr o vi d in g t h e e s ti m at io n o f th e r es i de n t p o pu l at i on r ef e rr e d to t h e

fi rst d ay o f eve ry mon th o f t he q uart er an d to t he f irst day of the f ollowi ng

q uart er. Thi s i mmed iacy re spect to the ref er en ce d at e g iv es t he c har act er o f

a d v an c e d p o p ul a t i o n f i g ur e s t o t h e s e e s ti m a te s .

4 . P op ul at io n N ow C as t m et ho do lo gy g ua ra nt ee s t he c om pl et e c on si st en cy

b et we en p o pu la ti on s to ck a t e ve ry d at e o f th e c ur re nt y ea r a nd t h e e st im at ed

d e mo g ra p hi c f l ow s h ap p en e d d u ri n g t h e t im e b ei n g o f t h e y ea r .

5 . Po p u l at i o n N o w C a st r es u l ts a re n o t su b j ec t t o r ev i s io n , u n l es s t h e re a r e

e n ou g h e v id e nc e a b ou t s ig n if i ca n t d e vi at i on s f ro m r ea l p o pu l at i on e vo l ut i on .

6 . Po pu la ti on No w C as t is c on si de re d a s t he m os t a cc ur at e e st im at e o f t he

c u rr e nt po p ul at i on r es i di n g i n S p ai n a n d i t s r e gi o ns a n d p ro v in c es . T h at is t h e

r ea so n wh y i t w or ks as t he r ef er en ce p op ul at io n fi gu re s f or a ll I NE p ro du ct io n

a n d i t i s t r an s mi tt e d t o i n te rn a ti o na l i n st it u ti o ns ( E ur os t at , U ni te d N a ti o ns ,

I n t e rn a t i on a l M o ne t a ry F u n d, et c . ) a s S p ai n p o pu l a ti o n f i g ur e s f o r a n y p u r po s e .

I n c on cl us io n, t h e o wn c ha ra ct er o f s yn th es is s ta ti st ic s, t h e u se o f a ll a v ai la bl e

i nf or ma ti on a bo ut r ec en t d em og ra ph ic e vo lu ti on a nd t he t ot al c oh er en ceb e t we e n e st i ma t e d p op u l a ti o n f i gu r e s an d d e mo g r ap h i c f l o ws c o n fe r t o t h e

P op ul at io n N ow C a st o v er t he f ie ld o f d e mo gr ap hi c s ta ti st ic s a s im il ar r ol e t ha n

n a t i on a l a c c ou n ts s ys t em s o v e r t h e f i e ld of bu s i ne s s s t at i s ti c s: b ey o nd ev i d en t

c o nc ep t ua l d if f er e nc e s t h ey b o th a re a d et a il ed a n d s ys t em at i c r e pr es e nt a ti o n of

t h e d e mo g ra p hi c a n d ec o no m ic r ea l it y, r es pe c ti v el y, a s a w ho l e, t r ou g h a

c o ns i st e nc e b a la n ce o f s t o ck s a n d f l ow s .

3.1.1 PROD UCTION A ND D ISSEMINA TION CA LEND AR

B ot h , th e i nt e rn a l de ma n d o f h om o ge n eo us p op u la t io n f ig u re s wh ic h wo r ks a s

r ef e re n ce f or a l l I NE st a ti s ti c al pr od u ct s a nd th e s t ro n g r eq u ir e me nt o n t h eu p da t in g o f s u ch f i gu re s t o th e c ur re n t d e mo g ra p hi c e v ol u ti o n, im po s e a r ea l ly

d e m an d i ng t i me t a bl e f o r c a r ry i n g ou t t h e d e ve l o p me n t o f P o p u la t i on N o w Ca s t .

T h os e a r e t h e r e as o ns w h y I N E p ro d uc e s P o pu l at io n N o w Ca s t r es u lt s d u ri n g t he

f ir st d ay s af te r t he e nd o f ev er y q ua rt er , wi th r ef er en ce t o th e l as t d ay a nd t o

s e v er a l i n t er m e di a t e d a te s o f t h e q u a r te r . I n o t h er w o r ds :

P o pu l at i on N ow C a st r ef e rr e d t o t h e f i rs t d ay o f th e m on t hs 1m + and 2m + of

t he q ua rt er q a nd to the f irst day of the month m of th e q ua rt er 1q + is

c a lc u l at e d a n d d i ss e mi n at e d a t t he f i rs t d a ys o f t h e q u ar te r 1q + .


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3.1.2 GENERA L METH OD OLOGY: A D A PTED COMPONENTS METH OD

T h e d es i gn o f Po pu l at i on N ow C as t ge ne ra l me t ho d ol o gy w as d ee p lyd e t er m in a t e d b y t h r e e m a i n r e q ui r e me n t s:

a ) T he a va il ab il it y o f re su lt s i n a q ua rt er ly b as is , wi th r ef er en ce a t d if fe re nt

i n te rm ed i at e d at e o f t he r e fe r en c e q u ar t er .

b ) T he a b so l ut e i mm ed i ac y o f t he t i me o f c al cu l at i on a n d di s se mi n at i on r e sp e ct

t o t h e d a t es o f r e f er e n ce .

c ) P op ul at io n N ow C as t r es ul ts a re d ef in it iv e, s o t he y a re i mm ov ab le p oi nt s o f

t h e e st i ma t es s er i es a l on g t h e c u rr e nt y e ar .

K e e pi n g i n m i n d t h es e t h r e e g e n er a l p r em i se s , P o p ul a t io n N o w C a st a r e c a rr i e d

o u t t h ro u gh a g e nu i ne a d ap t at i on o f t h e c o mp o ne n t m et h od , w hi ch c o ns i st s o f

p ro vi di ng p op ul at io n f ig ur es w it h r ef er en ce t o t he f ir st da y o f a m on th m of thec u r re n t y e a r i n t w o s t ep s :

1 . Fo r e ve ry m on th o f th e q ua rt er , pe rf or mi ng a n au xi li ar y p op ul at io n w it h

h or iz on i n t he J an ua ry 1 st o f t he f ol lo wi ng y ea r. T h is p r oj ec ti on i s p er fo rm ed

t h o ug h t h e c o mp o n en t m e t ho d , a c co r d in g t o a m u lt i r r eg i o na l m o d el 3 , w h ic hk ee ps a n ec es sa ry c on si st en ce b et we en d emo gr ap hi c f lo ws a nd p op ul at io n

s t o ck s a n d a m o ng a l l t e r ri t o ri a l l e v el s .

B es id es , th e m ig ra ti on i n pu t of t h is a ux il ia ry p ro je ct io n co ns is t o f a l in ea r

e x tr a po l at i on t o t h e w ho l e y e ar o f e st im at e d mo nt h ly m i gr a ti o n fl o ws a lo n g t h e

c u r re n t y e a r u n t i l t h e t i me o f es t i ma t i on .

2 . Ca l cu l at i ng a l in e ar i n te r po l at io n be t we en t he P o pu la ti o n N ow C as t onJ an ua ry 1 st o f th e c ur re nt y ea r a nd t he r es ul t of t he a ux il ia ry p ro je ct io n f or

J a nu ar y 1 st o f t h e f o ll ow i ng y e ar .

S uc h p r oc e du r e g u ar a nt e es t h a t th e d e mo gr a ph i c c h an ge h a pp e ne d ( e st im at e d)

d u ri n g t h e c u rr e nt y e ar i s c om pl e te ly c o ns i st e nt w it h f l ow s o f b i rt h s, d e at h s a n d

migrations.

F or e xa mp le , we c an g o o ve r t he c al cu la ti on p ro ce ss o f Po pu la ti on N ow C as t

c o rr e sp on d in g t o t he f ir s t q u ar t er o f 20 0 9, d ev el o pe d a t t h e b e gi n ni ng o f Ap ri l o f

2 00 9. At th is m om en t w e h ad a lr ea dy g ot t he P op ul at io n N ow Ca st fi gu re s

r e f er r e d t o 1 st J a n u ar y o f 2 0 09 s i n ce t h e l a s t e s t i ma t i on p e r io d ( f o ur t h q u ar t e r o f

2 00 8) , w hi ch w or ks a s o ur s ta rt in g p oi nt . W e f ol lo w t he e st ima ti on p ro ce ss

t ro ug h a nn ua l a ux il ia ry p ro je ct io ns a nd l in ea r i nt er po la ti on s i n t he f ol lo wi ngg r a ph i c s a n d t a b le :

3 W i l l e ke n s , F . J . y Dr e w e , P . ( 1 9 84 ) “ A m u l ti r e g i on a l m o d e l f o r r e g io n a l d e mo g r a p h ic p r o j e c ti o n ” , en

H e i d e, H . y W i l l e k en s , F . J . ( e d ) D e mo g r ap h i c R e se a rc h a n d S p at i al P o l ic y , A c ad e mi c P r es s , L on d r es .


15/25

P op ul at io n N ow C as t a t 1 s t F eb ru ar y o f 2 00 9

Population Now Cast

1st quarter of 2009

45800000

45850000

45900000

45950000

46000000

46050000

46100000

J a n u a r y

F e b r

u a r y M a r c h A p r i

l M a y J u n e J u l y

A u g u s t

S e p t e m b e

r

O c t o b e r

N o v e m b e

r

D e c e

m b e r

J a n u a r y

Auxiliary projection, January 2009

Population Now Cast

Population Now Cast at 1st February of 2009

Estimated February migration flows

Inmigrants Emigrants

45.223 33.689

Auxiliary projection of January 2009

1st January 2009

population Births-Deaths Inmigrants Emigrants

1st January

2010

population(*)

45.828.172 104.962 542.676 404.265 46.071.545

(*) Auxiliary projected figures

Population Now Cast at 1st February 2009 45.848.453

Demographic change during January 2009 20.281

Births-Deaths 8.747

Inmigrants 45.223

Emigrants 33.689


16/25

P op ul at io n N ow C as t a t 1st

March of 2009

Population Now Cast

1st quarter of 2009

45800000

45850000

45900000

45950000

46000000

46050000

46100000

J a n u

a r y

F e b r u a

r y

M a r c h A p

r i l M a

y J u

n e J u l y

A u g u

s t

S e p t

e m b e r

O c t o b

e r

N o v e m b

e r

D e c e m b

e r

J a n u

a r y


Auxiliary projection, February 2009

Population Now Cast

P op ul at io n N ow C as t a t 1st

April of 2009

Population Now Cast

1st quarter of 2009

45800000

45850000

45900000

45950000

46000000

46050000

46100000

J a n u

a r y

F e b r

u a r y

M a r c h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e J u

l y

A u g u

s t

S e p t e m b e

r

O c t o b e

r

N o v e

m b e r

D e c e

m b e r

J a n u a r y


Auxiliary projection, February 2009

Auxiliary projection, Marcha 2009

Population Now Cast

3 . 1 .3 S PE C I AL M EN T I O N O F E S TI M A T IO N P RO C E D UR E O F M O N T HL Y M I G R AN T S F L O WS

R e ga r di n g P o pu l at i on N o w Ca st , o ne o f t he e ss e nt i al e l em en t s i s t he e s ti ma t io n

o f m on t h l y m i g ra t i on f l ow a l on g t he c u rr e n t ye a r , ta k i ng i n t o a c c ou n t t ha t :

1 . No w a da y s, t h i s i s t h e m o s t s i g ni f i ca n t c o m po n e nt of t he d e m og r a ph i c c h a ng e .


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2 . I n g e ne r al , i nt e rn at i on al mi g ra t io n i s o ne o f t h e p r in ci p al la c k o f t h e o f fi ci a l

statistics.

3 . Th e m on th ly m ig ra ti on f lo w e st im at es g iv es a v er y im po rt an t re le va nc e t o

P o p ul a t i on N o w C a st i n n a t io n a l s y s te m , wh i ch p r ov i d es t h e o n l y a d v a nc e d f l a sh

e s t im a t e o f t h e c u r re n t d e mo g r ap h i c e v o lu t i on .

A s it h a s b ee n e xp l ai ne d b ef or e , Po p ul at i on N o w C as t i s p r od u ce d f o r e ve ry

q ua rt er , f ew da ys a ft er t he e nd of th e q ua rt er . T hi s t ime ta bl e i mp os es a h ig h

c ha ll en ge i n e st im at io n o f i mm ig ra ti on fl ow d ur in g t he m on th s o f r ef er en ce .

B as ic al ly , M on th ly D em og ra ph ic N ow C as t a re t im el y e no ug h i n p ro vi di ng

a c cu ra t e e st i ma t es o f Sp a ni s h a n d f or e ig n mi g ra t io n f lu x es d u ri n g t he t w o f i rs t

m on t h o f t he q u ar t er . T he m ig ra t io n f lo w of t h e t h ir d mo n th i s e s ti ma t ed t r ou g h

a d e t ai l e d a n a ly s is o f t h e t r e nd a n d s e as o n a l b e h a vi o u r o f t h e m o n th l y m i g ra t i on

series.

T hi s s im pl e p ro ce du re s a re r ea ll y r ob us t, t hu s t he c om pa ri so n b et we en 2 00 8

mo nt hl y immi gr an ts f lo ws pro vid ed by Popul atio n Now Cast an d up dat ed

i nformati on of fi nal l y regi stered ones show s:

Estimated and registered monthly inmigrants in 2008

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

J a n u a r y 0

8

F e b r

u a r y 0 8

M a r c h

0 8

A p r i l 0 8

M a y

0 8

J u n e

0 8

J u l y

0 8

A u g u

s t 0 8

S e p t e m b e

r 0 8

O c t o b e

r 0 8

N o v e m b

e r 0 8

D e c e m b

e r 0 8

Months

Estimated Registered

3.2 Population Projections

3 . 2 .1 H O W S H O U LD A P O P U LA T I O N P R O JE C TI O N B E F O C U SE D L I K E ?

A va i la b il it y o f f ut u re p o pu l at i on e v ol u ti o n p er sp e ct i ve s i mp li e s a n e l em en t o f

s tr uc tu ra l r el ev an ce i n a ny s oc io ec on om ic a na ly si s o r p la nn in g a ct iv it y, e it he r

f ro m t he p ub li c o r p ri va te s ec to r. I n f ac t, i t is o ne o f th e s ta ti st ic al a ct io ns w it h a

l onger tradition for nati onal statistics office and international stati sti cs


18/25

i n s ti t ut i o n s. U nt i l n o w, I NE h a s s a t is f ie d th i s a i m p r o vi d i ng p ro j e ct i o n s w i t h

o c c as i o n o f e a c h n e w c e ns u s , a f t er p o p ul a t io n c e n su s f i g ur e s w e re a v ai l a bl e .

H ow ev er , t he u se a nd p ub li c u nd er st an di ng o f t hi s k in d o f e xe rc is es i s o ne o f t he

more controversi al aspect of offi ci al demographi c stati stics. Often, users w onder:

S ho u ld w e t a ke i t a s a r ea l f o re ca st i ng ? W ha t i s t h e s t at i st ic al e r ro r a s so ci a te d t o

t he r es ul ts ? C ou ld w e g iv e a m ea su re o f r el ia bi li ty ? W hi ch p os si bl e s ce na ri os

s h o ul d w e u s e d? …. . de f i ni t el y , H o w c an y o u g u es s t h e f u t ur e ?

On the other hand, nowadays we stay i n front of one of the more seri ous

d e ma nd s r ai s ed i n o ff ic i al s t at i st i cs . Th e e xt r em e w o rr ie s a b ou t t he u n st o pp a bl e

g r o wt h o f t he w o r ld p o pu l a t io n , ev e n ab o v e o f n at u r a l r e so u r ce s , a nd t h e

d e m og r a ph i c f u t u re o f E ur o p ea n a nd o c ci d e nt a l c o u nt r i es , d ee p l y b r a nd e d by a

i nc re as in g p op ul at io n a ge in g, r es ult o f t he c on ti nu ou s e xt en si ons i n l if e

e xp ec ta nc y a nd a cc en tu at ed b y g en era li ze d l ow l ev el s o f fe rt il it y, ma ke s t he

p r od u ct i on o f s ta ti s ti c al s i mu l at i on o f f u tu re p o pu l at i on a n u n av oi d ab l e g o al f o rofficial statistical organisms.

T h er ef o re , o f fi c ia l s t at i st i cs a r e o b li g ed t o g i ve a c o nv i nc i ng a n s we r t o t h is s tr o ng

s o ci a l a n d p o li t ic a l r eq u ir em en t . B ut , i t s ho u ld b e d o ne w i th a u s ef u l a n dp r a gm a t ic a p p ro a c h , av o i di n g t h e u t o pi a o f f o re c a st i n g f ut u r e p o p u la t i on a n d , a t

t h e s a me t i me , pr o vi d in g cl e ar m es s ag es t o so c ie t y a b ou t fu t ur e d e mo gr a ph i c

r is ks . P re ci se ly , t he se a re t he g ui de li ne s t ha t h av e l ea de d t he d es ig n o f a n ew

n at io na l s tr at eg y o n p ro vi di ng p op ul at io n p ro je ct io ns , b as ed o n t hr ee m ai n

principles:

1 . A p o p ul a t io n p r o je c ti o n i s n o t a f o r ec a st i n g. T h e n , n o n s t at i s ti c a l e rr o r s s h o ul d

b e a s so ci at e d t o r es u lt s.

2 . A p o p ul a t io n p r o je c ti o n s h ou l d b e a n s t at i s ti c al s i m ul a t io n o f f u tu r e p o p u la t i on

a c c or d i ng s o m e h y p ot h e si s o n d e mo g r a ph i c e v o lu t i on .

3. The most important use of a population projecti on is to w arn the publ i c

o pi ni on a bo ut t he f ut ur e c on se qu en ce s o f to da y’ s de mo gr ap hi c s tr uc tu re a nd

trends.

3.2.2 INE NEW STRA TEGY ON POPULA TION PROJECTIONS

F ol lo wi ng t he se p re mi se s, I NE h as d ev el op ed a n ew p la n o ve r t he s ub je ct o f

p op ul at io n p ro je ct io ns w hi ch i s f oc us ed o n c ar ry in g o ut S h or t T er m a nd L o ng

T er m P op ul at io n P ro je ct io ns i n a p er io di c b as is , w hi ch a ll ow s I NE t o p ro vi dec on ti nu ou s s im ul at io n of f ut ur e r es id en t po pu la ti on a cc or di ng t o re ce nt

d e m og r a ph i c t r e nd s . I n f a c t , S h or t T e rm P o pu l at i on P ro j ec t io n s a r e c ar r ie d o ut

e ve ry y ea r, s in ce 2 00 8, p ro vi di ng a s im ul at io n of f ut ur e p op ul at io n r es id in g i n

S pa in , it s re gi on s a nd p ro vi nc es , on J an ua ry 1s t

of t he f ol lo wi ng t en y ea rs ,

b r ok en d ow n b y s e x a nd y ea r o f bi r th ; L o n g T e rm P o p u la t i o n P r o j ec t i o n s will be

c ar ri ed o ut ev er y t hr ee y ea rs , s in ce 2 00 9, p ro vi di ng a s im ul at io n o f f ut ur e

popul ati on resi di ng in Spai n on January 1s t

of the fol l owi ng fort y years,

b ro ke nd ow n b y s ex , a ge a nd y ea r o f b ir th .


19/25

T he p er io di c c al en da r o f p er fo rm an ce l et s I NE gi ve , i n a c on ti nu ou s w ay , a n

u pda ted simu lati on o f th e de mo gra phi c fu ture of t he co un try wit h t he l ast

a v a il a b le i n f or m a ti o n a b o ut c ur r en t ev o l ut i o n o f de m o gr a p hi c p h e n om e na , in ac on te xt of si gn if ica nt ch ange s. Th ere for e, t his st rat egy av oi ds a q ui ck

o bs ol es ce nc e o f th e r es ul ts t ha t w ou ld b ec om e t he m u se le ss . In a dd it io n ,

p er io di c P op ul at io n P ro je ct io ns h av e a s s ta rt in g p oi nt t he P op ul at io n N o w C a st

fo r Ja nuary 1s t

o f t h e c u r re n t y e a r, s o t h e y a r e c o n si s t en t w i t h c u r re n t r e f er e nc e

p opu lat io n f igu res a nd co mpl et e t he ci rcle o f cohe ren ce of th e whol e pa st,

p r es e nt a n d f u tu re d em o gr ap h ic s ys t em a nd p o pu l at i on s er ie s.

B o t h, S h or t T er m a nd L o n g Te r m Po p u l at i o n P r o j ec t i on s a r e c a l cu l at e d t ro u g h

the component method, using a multirregional model 4

, wh i c h g u ar a n te e s t h e

c o ns i st e nc y b e tw ee n d e mo gr a ph i c f l ow s a nd p o pu l at i on st o ck i n al l t e rr i to ri a l

l e v el (i n c a se o f S h or t T e r m P r o je c t io n s ) a n d d e mo g r ap h i c c h a ra c t er i s ti c s ( s e x

a n d y ea r o f b i r th ) . T ha t l e ts p o p ul a t io n p r oj e ct i o ns r e s ul t s i nc l ud e d e t ai l e d

d e mo g ra p hi c e v en ts w hi ch e xp l ai n f ut u re p op u la t io n f i g ur e s e v ol u ti on . I n o t he rw or ds , w e a re t al ki ng a bo ut co mp le te d em og ra ph ic pr oj ec ti on s, no t o nl y

popul ati on proj ections.

3.3 Some methods of projection of the demographic evolution

As menti oned before, the cal cul ati on of Popul ation Now Cast and Short Term

a nd Lo ng Te rm P op ul at io n P ro je ct io ns ar e b as ed o n a multirregional model 4

,

w hi ch in pu ts de fi ne t he p re se nt or f ut ur e e vo lu ti on of ea ch d emo gr ap hi c

p h e no m e na : f e rt i l it y , mo r t a li t y a n d mi g r at i o ns . W e s h o ul d s t r es s t w o c om me n t s

on that:

1. Pro je cti on met hods a re d et ermi nat ed by t he n ew a ppro ach ch osen i n

p o pu l at i on p ro j ec ti o ns : s t at i st i ca l s im ul a ti o n o f p r es en t d e mo g ra p hi c s

b e h av i o ur s a n d t r e n d s.

2 . Th e c h os e n m et h od s a re a p pl i ca b le i n th e e st i ma t io n o f cu r re nt d e mo g ra p hi c

e v o lu t i on in Po p u la t i on N o w C a st an d i n t h e p r o je c t io n o f f u t ur e d e m og r a ph i c

e v o lu t i on , b as e d o n a n e xt r a po l a t io n o f p r es e nt t r en d s , i n Sh o r t Te r m a n d L o n g

T e r m P o p u la t i on P r o j ec t i on s t o o .

T he d es ig ne d me th od ol og y f or p ro je ct in g Sp ai n f er ti li ty , mo rt al it y o r i nt er na l

m i gr a ti o ns a re g o od e xa mp l es o f s uc h i mp l ic at i on s.

4 W i l l e ke n s , F . J . y Dr e w e , P . ( 1 9 84 ) “ A m u l ti r e g i on a l m o d e l f o r r e g io n a l d e mo g r a p h ic p r o j e c ti o n ” , en

H e i d e, H . y W i l l e k en s , F . J . ( e d ) D e mo g r ap h i c R e se a rc h a n d S p at i al P o l ic y , A c ad e mi c P r es s , L on d r es .


20/25

3.3.1 FERTILITY

T h e g en e ra l me t ho d f o r p r oj e ct i ng f e rt il it y o f wo m en r e si d in g i n Sp a in c o ns i st o f a m od el iz at io n o f r et ro sp ec ti ve s er ie s o f s pe ci fi c f er ti li ty r at es b y a ge , u si ng t he

fol l ow i ng l og-l i near model :

)1995tln(baf xxtx −+= , wh er e 49,...,15x = y ,...1999,1998t =

Bei ng txf t he s pe ci fi c f er ti li ty r at e at ag e x d ur i ng d e y ea r t , pr o vi d e d b y B a si c

D em og ra ph ic I nd ic at or s a nd by M on th ly D em og ra ph ic N ow Ca st f or t he l as t 1 2

m on th s p er io d a va il ab le . T he m od el p a ra me te rs , xa and xb , a re e st im at ed

trough l i n ea r l e a st s qu a re s . N e x t g ra p h sh o ws s p ec if i c m o rt a li t y r at e o b se rv e d

( 1 99 8 -2 0 07 ), e s t im at e d b y M on t hl y D em o gr a ph i c N o w C as t ( 2 00 8 ) a n d p ro j ec t ed

i n S h or t T e r m P o p ul a t io n P r o j e c ti o n 2 0 0 9 - 20 4 9 ( 2 0 09 - 2 01 8 ) .

S p e c i fi c f e rt i l i t y r a t e s b y a g e

0,000

0,040

0,080

0,120

1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 3 0 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 3 6 3 7 3 8 3 9 4 0 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9

1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 2009

2013 2018

T h e p r o je c t io n o f f e r ti l it y i n l o we r t e r ri t o ri a l l e ve l ( p ro v i n ce s ) i s c a rr i ed ou t u s i ng

a l og -l in ea r m od el iz at io n o f t h e d if fe re nt ia l i n f e rt il it y i nt en si ty ( To ta l F er ti li ty

Rate, TFR ) an d f ert ili ty cal end ar ( Mea n Age at Chi ld be ari ng, MAC , and

I ntercuarti l i c Range, I R ) o f p r ov i nc es r es p ec t t o t h e w h ol e c ou nt r y:

)1993tln(DF ovinceProvincePrt ovincePr −β+α= , ,...1999,1998t = , bei ng tSpain

t

ovincePrt ovincePrTFR

TFRDF =

)1993tln(MAC ovinceProvincePrtovincePr −β+α= , where ,...1999,1998t =

)1993tln(IR ovinceProvincePrtovincePr −β+α= , where ,...1999,1998t =


21/25

F ro m t he se p ar am et er s, s pe ci fi c f e rt il it y r at es p er e ve ry p ro vi nc e a re d ev el op ed

usi ng t h e G om pe r tz R e la ti o na l m o de l , f o l l ow i ng t h e m e th o d ol o g ic a l p r o po s a l o f

Z e ng Y i a nd o t he rs5

:

))1t(ISF

)1t,x(F~

(Y))t(ISF

)t,x(F(Y tt

−

−⋅β+α=

Where:

∑=

=x

15i

t,ovincePrif)t,x(F , being

t,ovincePrif s p ec i fi c f e rt i li ty r a te a t a ge i i n the provi nce

during the year t ; ∑=

−=−x

15i

1t,ovincePrif~

)1t,x(F~

, bei ng t,ovincePrif~

t h e s mo o th e d s pe c if i c

fe rt ili ty r at e at a ge i i n t he p ro vin ce du ri ng th e ye ar t ; ))xln(ln()x(Y −−= ;

)TFR

)1t,MAC(F(Y)5,0(Y

1tovincePr

1tovincePr

tt −

− −⋅β−=α ;

tovincePr

1tovincePr

tR̂I

IR −=β .

3.3.2 MORTA LITY

T h e m e t ho d f o r p r o je c t in g m o rt a l i ty i s b a s ed o n a n e x t ra p o la t io n o f r e ce n t t r en d s

i n m o rt a l it y r i sk s b y s e x a n d a g e , a c c or d i n g t o an e xp o n en t i al mo d e l iz a t io n of t he

r e t ro s p ec t i ve s m o ot h e d p a th o f t h e m:

ttx,s

x,sx,seq~ β+α

= , += 100,99,...2,1,0x . For 1x ≥ , ,...1992,1991t = ; for 0x = , ,...1999,1998t =

Where t x,sq~ i s t he m or ta li ty r is k o f p eo pl e w it h se x s and age x d u ri n g th e y e ar t

p ro vi de d b y S pa in M o r ta li ty T ab le s a nd b y M on th ly D em og ra ph ic N ow C a st f o r

t h e m o st r e c e n t 1 2 m o nt h s p e ri o d a v a il a b le . M o de l p a r a me t e rs , x,sα and x,sb , are

e s t im a t ed t h r ou g h least squares method.

A n in t e rm e d ia t e s m o ot h i ng p ro c e ss o f se r i es x,sβ̂ a n d r e es t i ma t i on o f t h e f i r st

parameter x,sα i s r eq ui re d i n or de r t o g ua ra nt ee a s of t tr an si ti on b et we en l a st

o b se rv e d y e ar s a n d p ro j ec t ed o n es .

5 Z e ng Y i , W an g Z h en g l ia n , M a Z h on g d on g y C h en C h un j un . 2 0 00 . " A s i m pl e m e th o d f o r p r o je c t in g o r

e s t i m at i n g a n d : A n e x t e n s i o n o f t h e B r a s s R e l a t io n a l G o m p er t z F e r t i l i ty M o d e l " , P o p u l a ti o n R e s e a rc h

and Policy Review 19:525–549.


22/25

Mortlity risks by age

Males

0,0000

0,0001

0,0010

0,0100

0,1000

1,0000

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96

Age

S e m i l o g a r i t m i c s c a l e 2002

2005

2008

2009

2013

2018

Mortlity risks by age

Females

0,0000

0,0001

0,0010

0,0100

0,1000

1,00000 6 1 2 1 8 24 3 0 3 6 4 2 48 5 4 6 0 6 6 72 7 8 8 4 9 0 9 6

Age

S e m i l o g a r i t m i c s c a l e 2002

2005

2008

2009

2013

2018

T he p ro je ct io n o f m or ta li ty i nc id en ce i n e ve ry p ro vi nc e i s b as ed o n t he r el at io na l

m et h od p r op o se d b y W . Br a ss , ca l le d Brass’ logits 6

, w h ic h b in d t he t e r ri t o ri a l

l e ve l t o t h e n a ti o na l r es u lt s:

Bei ng ovincePrx,sl andSpainx,sl the survivor series by sex s and age x ( )95,...,40x = of

m or t al i ty t a bl e s o f t he c or r es p on d in g p r ov i nc e a n d S pa i n, r e sp e ct iv e ly , a n d i t s

logistic transformation , t he f ol lo wi ng l in ea r m od el i s e st i ma t ed t ro u gh l east

s q u ar e s m e t ho d :

−=

ovincePrx,s

ovincePrx,s

ovincePr0,sovincePr

x,sl

llln

2

1lLogit

−=

Spain

x,s

Spainx,s

Spain0Spain

x,sl

llln

2

1lLogit

Spainx,s

ovincePrs

ovincePrs

ovincePrx,s lLogitlLogit ×β+α=

3 . 3 .3 I N T E RN A L M I G R AT I O N S

T h e s p e ci f i c i n t er - p ro v i nc e s , i and j , m ig ra ti on r at e b y s ex s an age x c ou ld b e

factorized in:

t j,i,x,s

tx,s,i

ts,i

t j,i,x,s acintTMRm ⋅⋅=

Where t s,iintTMR i s th e T o ta l I n te rn a l M ig r at i on R at e f r om t h e p r ov i nc e i of peopl e

with sex s d u r in g t he y e ar t ; t x,s,ic i s t he c al en d ar o f i n te rn a l m ig ra t io n b y a g e x

o f p eo p le o f s e x s r es id in g i n t he p ro vi nc e i du rin g t he yea r t ; and t j,i,x,sa i s

m a tr i x o f p e r ce n t ag e p r o v in c i al i n t e rc h a n ge s i n e v e ry s e x s and age x d u ri ng d e

year t .

6 W i l l i a m Br a s s , ( 1 9 75 ) , M e th o d s f o r e s t i m at i n g fe r t i l i ty a nd m o r t a li t y fr o m l i m i t ed a n d d e f e ct i v e d a t a .


23/25

T he n p ro je ct io n me th od i s b as ed i n a g en ui ne r egr es si on m od el w it h d el ay s i n

d e p en d a nt v a r ia b l e, w h ic h m od e l i ze s t h e e v o lu t i o n o f i n te r na l m o bi l it y i n t e ns i t y

w it h re l at i on t o t h e f o re i gn i m mi g ra n ts f lo w (INM ) o f t he s am e y ea r a nd t he y ea rb e fo r e a n d t he o wn t re nd o f th e d e pe n de nt v ar ia b le .

1ts,i3

ts,i2

1ts,i10

ts,i INMINMintTMRintTMR

−− β+β+β+β=

The least squared e s t im a t ed p ar a m et e r s o f th e m o d el a re c o n si s t en t , s i n ce

a u t o co r re l a t io n i n e r ro r s a r e r e f us e d w i t h s t at i st i c al e v id e n ce .

T h e p r oj e ct i on p r oc es s i s co mp l et e d w it h t he c a lc ul a ti o n of p r oj ec t ed c al e nd a rs

of internal migration t x,s,ic a nd t h e m at r ix o f p e rc en t ag e p ro v in c ia l i n te rc ha n ge s

t j,i,x,sa t h ro u g h a v e ra g e d a t a o f th e l a s t f o u r o b se r v ed y ea r s .


24/25

Annex

R e c e nt e v o l ut i o n o f S p a in p o p u l a ti o n p y r a mi d

Population Now Cast

January 1st 2002 and 2010

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

0 años

4 años

8 años

12 años

16 años

20 años

24 años

28 años

32 años

36 años

40 años

44 años

48 años

52 años

56 años

60 años

64 años

68 años

72 años

76 años

80 años

84 años

88 años

92 años

96 años

100 y

2010

2002

Males Females

Males+females=10000

S i m u la t e d f u t ur e e v o lu t i o n o f S p a i n p y r am i d p o p ul a t i o n

Short Term Population Projections (2009-2019) and Long Term

Population Projections (2009-2049)

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

Males Females

Males+females=10000

2049

2039

2029

2019

2009


25/25

References

I N E . W h a t i s t h e P o p ul a t io n N o w C a st ?http://www.ine.es/en/daco/daco43/epoba/estima_pob_en.pdf

I NE, January 2010. Popul ati on Now Cast. Methodol ogy

http://www.ine.es/metodologia/t20/t2030259.pdf

I N E . W h a t a r e t h e S h o rt T e r m P o p u la t i on P r o je c t io n s

http://www.ine.es/metodologia/t20/t20269_proyec.pdf

I N E , 2 0 0 8. S h or t T e r m P o p ul a t i on P r o je c ti o n . P r o je c t

http://www.ine.es/metodologia/t20/t20269_proyet.pdf

I NE, September 2009. Short Term Popul ati on Proj ecti on. Methodol ogy

http://www.ine.es/en/m

Documents

INE-Spain strategy on population estimates and projections facing the challenge of statistical measure of population