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State of Working Ohio 2018Inequality amid job growth
Work & WagesSeptember 3, 2018
Amy HanauerGrace Chu
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORGii
I. INTRODUCTION iii
II. BROKEN ECONOMY: INEQUALITY SOARS 11: Growing apart: Productivity growth no longer leads to compensation growth, 1948-2016 2
2: Productivity growth far exceeds compensation growth in Ohio and US, 1979-2016 2
3: Unshared economy: Share of all income growth captured by Ohio’s top 1% & bottom 99% 3
4: Share of all income captured by Ohio’s top 1% 3
III. WAGES: WEAK, BELOW PEAK, NOT EQUAL 45. Ohio wages: less than US, less than past. Median wages Ohio and US, 1979-2017 5
6. Ohio's 10 most common occupations pay poorly, 2017 6
7. Hourly wage growth, 1979-2017 6
8. Gender pay gap shrinking in Ohio, still more than $3 an hour 7
9. Racial wage gap in Ohio: Bad, getting worse, 1979-2017 7
IV. JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY 810. Employment-to-population ratio and labor force participation, Ohio, 1979-2017 9
11. Employment-to-population ratio, 2017, select groups 10
12. Percent job change, Jan 2000-July 2018 10
13. Prime-age employment-to-population ratio, Ohio, 2017 11
14. Men’s labor force participation way down, women’s stopped growing, Ohio, 2017 11
15. Ohio Jobs, January 2000-March 2018 12
16. Ohio job change by sector, January 2000-July 2018 12
17. Ohio’s key job sectors 13
18. Low unemployment, Ohio and U.S., 1979–2017 13
19. Unemployment by race 14
20. Low unemployment for men and women, 1979-2017 14
21. Workers without college degrees fall behind 15
22. More educated: Ohio education levels, 1979 and 2017 15
23. Education doesn’t make up for race and gender inequity, pooled years 2015-2017 16
24. Union premium, Ohio 2017 16
25. Unions raise wages for white, black, male & female Ohio workers, pooled years 2015-17 17
26. Uninsured rate halved after ACA: Share of Ohioans lacking health insurance, 2010-16 17
V. FINDINGS & FIXES: SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS 18
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 21
Contents
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORGiii
I. Introduction
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORGiv
I. Introduction
Ohio is now in the ninth year of a national economic expansion. At the federal level, $2.3 trillion tax cuts should have the economy broiling. But from our lack of wage growth, you wouldn’t know it. What gives?
The economy IS good, as measured by job growth and official unemployment. The national recovery has been slow and modest, but it has lasted for a very long time. Ohio’s recovery hasn’t been as strong or gone on as long as the nation’s, but even so, nine years is an awfully long time to be expanding. So why don’t people’s piggy banks feel heavier?
One big reason is that the federal tax cuts, despite ballooning the federal deficit, were not designed to create jobs or boost job quality, and, at the state and federal level, policymakers simultaneously did much to undermine typical families.
Federal and state policy have, aside from expanding health care, reduced many protections for working people. Congress let the minimum wage lose ground. The Trump administration revoked overtime rule updates which would have let more workers get paid overtime when they worked more than 40 hours a week. The Supreme Court ruled to forbid unions from collecting fees that enable them to function, while still requiring unions to represent workers who refuse to contribute to union costs. And both President Trump and Congress spent much of the last two years trying unsuccessfully to get rid of the Affordable Care Act which has helped nearly a million Ohioans get health insurance.
In Ohio, there have been some helpful policy developments, but retrenchment in other ways. The Affordable Care Act and Governor John Kasich’s
acceptance of Medicaid expansion meant strong increases in insurance coverage that continue to benefit Ohioans. Our minimum wage is a bit above the nation’s. And when Ohio lawmakers made public sector collective bargaining illegal in 2011, Ohioans used the people’s veto to restore that right. Yet over the last decade lawmakers have also blocked unionization efforts for childcare and home care workers, disinvested from work supports and local government, made it harder to afford higher education, and failed to address declining job quality.
In the past when unemployment was this low, working people saw more raises—in the late 1990s the share of national income going to paychecks was a full three percentage points higher than it is today, according to economist Jared Bernstein. Low unemployment is great news—for someone once jobless who now has a job, life is surely better. But persistent low wages, particularly in Ohio, signal a squandered recovery.
A good economy should work for all of us. A business cycle that lasts this long in an upswing is a rare gift. It is a deep shame to squander the peak of a recovery with policies that are so determined to send so much of America’s wealth to the wealthiest.
This 2018 edition of the State of Working Ohio uses the best and most recent data available to try to understand what is happening to workers in Ohio. In this time when working people have become much more educated and productive, this report sheds light on how the economy is working for workers. We conclude with recommendations to enable more broadly shared prosperity. We can afford these changes and we know what they are. Will this be the year we find the will to bring them about?
1 https://nyti.ms/2BsxLGp
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG1
II. Broken economy: Inequality soars
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG2
II. BROKEN ECONOMY: INEQUALITY SOARS
Finding: In the middle of the 20th century, from the post-World War II period in 1948 through the mid-1970s, worker compensation grew right alongside productivity, with average hourly compensation (wages and benefits) of production and non-supervisory workers nearly doubling (91.3 percent growth) and net hourly productivity doing the same (96.7 percent growth). Since that time, productivity nearly doubled again, while compensation edged upward only slightly. If you examine the whole period, 1948-2016, you see productivity levels nationally that have spiked by 250 percent while compensation grew over that entire 68-year period by only 115 percent, nearly all of that in the previously-referenced mid-20th century.
Figure 1Growing apart: Productivity growth no longer leads to compensation growth
US productivity vs. compensation growth, 1948-2016
91.30%
115.10%96.70%
241.80%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
194
8
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
196
0
196
2
196
4
196
6
196
8
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
2010
2012
2014
2016
Hourly compensation
Net productivity
Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI) State of Working America Data Library at https://www.epi.org/data/#?subject=prodpay. Uses data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), State/National Income & Product Accounts (NIPA) public data series. Cumulative change in net productivity (growth of output of goods & services less depreciation per hour worked) of total economy. Real average hourly compensation of private sector product/non-supervisory workers, 1948-2017. Latest data available.
Finding: From 1979 to 2016, productivity grew by 72.4 percent nationally and by 66.5 percent in Ohio, cumulatively. Compensation rose by only 14.1 percent nationally and edged up by a meager 3.8 percent in Ohio after accounting for inflation. Workers are much more productive, companies are much more profitable, but inflation-adjusted pay is essentially stagnant.
Figure 2Productivity growth far exceeds compensation growth in Ohio and US,
1979-2016
66.5%
3.8%
72.4%
14.1%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Ohio productivity
Ohio hourly compensation
U.S. productivity
U.S. hourly compensation
Source: EPI analysis of data from BLS, Labor Productivity and costs program; Current Population Survey, and BEA State NIPA public data series. Changes cumulative. Latest data available. We could produce Ohio data only since 1979, where this chart begins. Chart ends in 2016. Inflation adjusted.
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG3
Finding: Income inequality has risen in Ohio since the 1970s, as it has in every other state. The current level of income inequality stands in contrast to the mid-20th century’s more shared prosperity. Between 1945 and 1973, the wealthiest 1 percent of Ohio households captured about 4 percent of total income growth. Compare that to the explosion in top-tier wealth between 1973 and 2015: During that period, Ohio’s wealthiest seized a whopping 86 percent of all pre-tax income growth (excludes Social Security and other transfers).
BROKEN ECONOMY: INEQUALITY SOARS
Figure 3Unshared economy: Share of all income growth captured by
Ohio’s top 1% & bottom 99%
4%
96%
1945-1973
Top 1%
Bottom 99%
Source: Sommeiller, Estelle, and Mark Price. 2018. The New Gilded Age: Income Inequality in the U.S. by State, Metropolitan Area, and County. Economic Policy Institute, July 2018. First published locally in Unfair Share: Ohio’s wealthiest pull further away by Ben Stein, July 2018, Policy Matters Ohio, https://bit.ly/2NDesLB
86%
14%1973-2015
Top 1%
Bottom 99%
Figure 4Share of all income captured by Ohio’s top 1%
192820.5%
19747.4%
201515.8%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1917 1924 1931 1938 1945 1952 1959 1966 1973 1980 1987 1994 2001 2008 2015
Source: Sommeiller and Price. 2018. The new gilded age. EPI and Unfair Share https://bit.ly/2NDesLB
Finding: Ohio’s wealthiest 1 percent of households took home 15.8 percent of all earned income in the state in 2015. That is more than twice the share captured by the top percentile in 1974, and within five percentage points of the share they were taking just before the onset of the Great Depression.
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG4
II. Wages: Weak, below peak, not equal
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG5
III. WAGES: WEAK, BELOW PEAK, NOT EQUAL
Finding: The median wage is the wage earned by the worker at the midpoint – half of workers earn more and
half earn less than this. Inflation-adjusted median wages rose very slowly between 2016 and 2017 in Ohio and
nationally, despite low unemployment. In Ohio, the 2017 median wage was just $17.79 an hour, up just four cents
an hour from the previous year when adjusted for inflation. This was nearly 50 cents less than the national median
wage of $18.28 an hour, and more than 40 cents less than Ohio’s median wage was in 1979 when we begin this
series. Growth was faster in other years of this decade: when adjusted for inflation, median wages grew by
more than 3 percent between 2015 and 2016 and between 2014 and 2015. Last year, by contrast, median wage
growth was just 0.2 percent. Despite the two decent years leading up to 2015 and 2016, wage growth in Ohio has
generally been weak with the exception of a strong run in the late 1990s, and plunges during downturns have
been steep, leading to Ohio’s current median wage being stuck below recent peaks and below its level in 1979.
Nationally, wages actually fell in the most recent quarter.
Figure 5
Ohio wages: less than US, less than past. Median wages Ohio and US, 1979-2017
$18.22
$16.06
$17.96
$16.47
$17.79
$16.71$16.11
$18.25
$17.41
$18.28
$14.50
$15.00
$15.50
$16.00
$16.50
$17.00
$17.50
$18.00
$18.50
1979 19
8119
8319
8519
8719
89 1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
OhioUnited States
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data, adjusted to 2017 dollars
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG6
Finding: Many of Ohio’s jobs offer very low median wages. Of the 10 most common occupations in the state,
three pay less than the official three-person poverty line and nine pay less than twice the poverty line for that size
family, even with full-time year-round work. In hourly wages, just two pay more than $15 an hour at the median.
This in a nutshell explains the challenge in the Ohio economy: the most common jobs are generally not family-
sustaining.
WAGES: WEAK, BELOW PEAK, NOT EQUAL
6
Figure 5
Ohio wages: less than US, less than past. Median wages Ohio and US, 1979-2017
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data, adjusted to 2017 dollars
Finding: Many of Ohio’s jobs offer very low median wages. Of the ten most common occupations in the state, three pay less than the official three-person poverty line and nine pay less than twice the poverty line for that size family, even with full-time year-round work. In hourly wages, just two pay more than $15 an hour at the median. This in a nutshell explains the challenge in the Ohio economy – the most common jobs are generally not family-sustaining.
Figure 6 Ohio's 10 most common occupations pay poorly, 2017
Job Title Total Ohio Jobs
Median Hourly Wage
Median Annual Salary
Salary as share of 3-
person poverty line
Salary as share of 200% of poverty
Food Preparation and Serving 158,070 $9.21 $19,150 92% 46% Retail Salespersons 152,410 $10.67 $22,190 107% 53% Registered Nurses 124,620 $30.43 $63,300 305% 152% Cashiers 119,860 $9.31 $19,360 93% 47% Laborers, Freight, Stock, Material Movers-hand 111,410 $12.92 $26,880 129% 65% Office Clerks, General 100,760 $14.88 $30,940 149% 74% Waiters and Waitresses 96,160 $9.25 $19,240 93% 46% Customer Service Reps 90,090 $15.50 $32,240 155% 78% Janitors and Cleaners 83,560 $11.50 $23,920 115% 58% Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 83,430 $11.56 $24,040 116% 58%
Total 1,120,370
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, 2017 data
$18.22
$16.06
$17.96
$16.47
$17.79
$16.71$16.11
$18.25
$17.41
$18.28
$14.50
$15.00
$15.50
$16.00
$16.50
$17.00
$17.50
$18.00
$18.50
1979 19
8119
8319
8519
8719
89 1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
OhioUnited States
Finding: Even among the bottom 90 percent, wage growth is not equally distributed. Since 1979, workers toward
the top of the income spectrum have captured most of the wage growth in Ohio. Ninetieth percentile workers—
those earning more than 90 percent of other employees, earn about $6.91 more each hour than they did in 1979,
while workers at the median and below all earn less when adjusted for inflation.
Figure 7Hourly wage growth, 1979-2017
-$0.07 -$0.10 -$0.34 -$0.58 -$0.43
$0.25$1.13
$2.46
$6.91
-$1.00$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00
10th
pe
rcen
tile
20
th p
erc
entl
e
30
th p
erc
enti
le
40
th p
erce
nti
le
50
th p
erc
enti
le(M
ed
ian
)
60
th p
erc
en
tile
70
th p
erc
enti
le
80
th p
erc
en
tile
90
th p
erc
en
tile
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data, adjusted to 2017 dollars
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG7
Finding: Women continue to earn less
than men in Ohio, although in 2017
women’s median wages rose slightly
(from $15.85 to $16.15) while men’s slid
a bit (from $19.38 to $19.29). Still, men
earn more than $3.00 more each hour
than women do, translating to more than
a $6,500 difference with full-time year-
round work. This disparity has improved
dramatically over the nearly 40 years of
this analysis, due both to rising women’s
wages and shrinking men’s wages at the
median, when adjusted for inflation.
Figure 8Gender pay gap shrinking in Ohio, still more than $3 an hour
$22.04$21.24
$18.11
$19.29
$13.32 $13.25
$15.94
$16.15
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
$22
$24
1979 19
8119
8319
8519
8719
89 1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Male Female
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data, adjusted to 2017 dollars
WAGES: WEAK, BELOW PEAK, NOT EQUAL
Finding: Black workers’ wages lag far behind those of white workers at the median in Ohio and the gap has grown
much worse over time. Black workers earned just $13.96 at the median in Ohio in 2017, compared to $18.57 for
white workers, a gap of more than $4.60 each hour, translating into more than $9,500 less each year with full-time
year-round work. Black workers’
median wage actually fell slightly
between 2016 and 2017 in Ohio,
despite the good economy. This
may be partly the result of pulling
the most disadvantaged workers
into jobs—when previously excluded
workers are finally permitted into
the labor force they tend to start at
low wages, pulling down medians.
Because the sample of black workers
is smaller than that of white workers
in Ohio, the data jumps around a bit
more, but the trend is clear. White
workers earn much more at the
median and the story has gotten
worse, not better.
Figure 9
Racial wage gap in Ohio: Bad, getting worse, 1979-2017
$16.96$16.30
$13.72 $13.96
$18.33
$16.28
$18.43 $18.57
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
1979 19
8119
8319
8519
8719
89 1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
African American White
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data, adjusted to 2017 dollars
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG8
IV. Jobs: Growing slowly
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG9
IV: JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
Finding: For the entire period between 1979 and 2012, Ohio labor force participation was higher than it is today,
though there’s been a slight uptick over the past few years, to 63.0 percent in 2017, up from a modern low of 62.3
percent in 2015. The share of Ohioans that is employed (the employment-to-population ratio) remains below the
level at any point between 1987 and 2008, and well below its recent peak of 64.6 percent in 2001. It too improved
modestly between 2013 and 2017. Despite low unemployment rates, both measures of how well Ohio’s labor
market is pulling everyone in are worse than they’ve been in all but a handful of the years since our dataset tracks
this, starting in 1979. Unemployment is very low, a good thing. But, it is masking the fact that too many Ohioans
are still not working.
Figure 10
Employment-to-population ratio and labor force participation, Ohio, 1979-2017
60.1%
55.9%
62.0%
61.2%
64.6%64.0%
58.2%
59.8%
63.9%
63.5%
66.6%
67.8%
62.3%
63.0%
55%
57%
59%
61%
63%
65%
67%
69%
1979 19
8119
8319
8519
8719
89 1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Employment to population ratio Labor force participation
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG10
Finding: The reasons that Ohio workers are not all back in the labor force are complex. But chief among them
is that Ohio still had fewer jobs by July 2018 than it had prior to the 2000 recession, in January 2000. This is in
contrast to the United States, which has added 13.83 percent to its job base since that time.
Figure 12Percent job change, Jan 2000-July 2018
13.83%
-0.08%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
United States Ohio
Source: EPI Analysis of CES data, total nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted numbers Jan 2000-July 2018
JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
Finding: Men, prime-age workers, Asian-American and Hispanic workers, and those with a BA or more are all more
likely to be employed than other demographic groups. Less than one in three of those with less than a high school
degree was working in Ohio in 2017.
Figure 11Employment-to-population ratio, 2017, select groups
65.0%55.0% 56.9%
78.6%
37.4%
60.2%53.5%
66.4% 67.6%
32.5%
55.0%64.5%
74.0%
Male
Female
16-24
yrs
25-5
4 yrs
55 yr
s and
olde
r
Whit
e
Africa
n-Amer
ican
Hispan
ic
Asian/
Pacif
ic Isl
ande
r
Less
than
high
scho
ol
High Sc
hool
Some c
olleg
e
Bach
elor's
or hi
gher
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG11
Finding: Women’s labor force participation climbed steadily throughout the 1980s and ‘90s before hitting a peak
of 62.4 percent in 2008. After that the rate fell sharply and has stayed low, at just 57.7 percent by the end of
2017, up slightly over that calendar
year from 57.2 percent. Male labor
force participation, in contrast, fell
in most years of our analysis and
was 68.6 percent by the end of 2017,
up slightly over the previous year,
but down more than 10 percentage
points from its peak of 79.6 percent
in 1979.
Finding: Some analysts argue that the reason for lower employment as a share of population in Ohio is our aging
state. In fact, even when you control for age, employment levels remain below their peak for prime-age (25-54
years) Ohio workers—albeit far better than in some recent years. During the peak year of employment, 1999, 82
percent of prime-age Ohioans were employed. In 2017, just 78.6 percent of prime-age Ohioans were working.
Figure 13Prime-age employment-to-population ratio, Ohio, 2017
73.6%
70.6%
82.0%
78.6%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data, workers age 25-54
JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
Figure 14Men’s labor force participation way down, women’s stopped growing,
Ohio, 2017
79.6%
68.6%
49.8%
62.4%
57.7%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Male Female
Source: EPI analysis of CPS data
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG12
Finding: Since 2000, nearly
all of the jobs created in
Ohio’s economy are in health
services, professional and
business services, and leisure
and hospitality. Manufacturing,
the sector called “trade,
transportation and utilities,”
information, construction and
mining have all lost substantial
numbers of jobs since 2000—
manufacturing in particular is still
down more than 328,000 jobs.
This calendar year has been a
good one for manufacturing but
it still lags far behind where it was
in 2000 (which already followed
decades of decline).
Figure 16Ohio job change by sector, January 2000-July 2018
-328,300
-77,400
-22,100
6,200 6,200
89,100 94,100
264,200
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
00,000
100,000
200,000
300,000
Manufa
ctur
ing
Trad
e, tra
ns, u
tility
Con
stru
ction
Finan
cial s
ecto
r
Gover
nmen
t
Prof
& bu
s ser
vice
Leisu
re &
hosp
ital it
y
Educ
ation
& h
ealth
Source: EPI analysis of CES data, monthly seasonally adjusted, January 2000-March 2018
JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
Finding: Ohio has been slowly adding jobs since February 2010 at a modest growth rate. By July 2018 there were
5.616 million jobs in Ohio, higher than at the start of either of the last two recessions (March 2001 and December
2007). This is an important accomplishment. Job levels remain lower than at their peak in May 2000. Economies
should be adding jobs throughout expansions and should much more quickly replace jobs lost in previous
recessions, but the long, slow, steady growth has finally brought us to nearly positive territory.
Figure 15Ohio Jobs, January 2000-March 2018
May-00, 5,636,600
Feb-01, 5,599,200
Dec-07, 5,418,100
Feb-10, 5,002,600
Jul-18, 5,616,100
4,600,000
4,800,000
5,000,000
5,200,000
5,400,000
5,600,000
5,800,000
Jan-
00
Aug
-00
Mar
-01
Oct
-01
May
-02
De
c-0
2
Jul-
03
Feb
-04
Sep-
04
Apr
-05
Nov
-05
Jun-
06
Jan-
07
Aug
-07
Mar
-08
Oct
-08
May
-09
De
c-0
9
Jul-
10
Feb
-11
Sep-
11
Apr
-12
Nov
-12
Jun-
13
Jan-
14
Aug
-14
Mar
-15
Oct
-15
May
-16
De
c-16
Jul-
17
Feb
-18
Source: EPI analysis of CES data, monthly average, total nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted, Jan 2000-July 2018
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG13
Finding: The official unemployment rate was extremely low in Ohio (5.0 percent) and the U.S. (4.4 percent) in
2017. The Ohio rate was 4.9 percent in July. This is excellent. Some caveats: unemployment this low should push
wages upward—that is not yet happening in Ohio or in the country. Unemployment is much higher in certain
communities, including for African Americans and in many rural counties. Finally, low official unemployment
doesn’t capture those who have left the labor market—labor force participation remains depressed in Ohio.
Finding: Despite the big loss in manufacturing and the
sector that includes trade, transportation and utilities,
these jobs remain important in our economy, making
up 12 percent and 19 percent, respectively, of Ohio jobs.
Education and health services (17 percent), business and
professional services (13 percent), leisure and hospitality
(10 percent) and government (14 percent) are other large
employment sectors.
Figure 17Ohio’s key job sectors
Mining 0%
Construction4%
Manufacturing12%
Trade Transportation
and Utilities19%
Information1%Financial
Activities6%
Prof & Bus Serv13%
Education and Health Services
17%
Leisure and Hospitality
10%
Other Services4%
Government14%
Source: EPI analysis of CES data, 2017
JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
Figure 18Low unemployment, Ohio and US, 1979–2017
12.4%
10.3%
5.0%5.9%
9.7%
7.5%
4.0%4.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1979 19
8119
8319
8519
8719
89 1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009 20
1120
1320
1520
17
Ohio USA
Source: EPI analysis of CPS Data. 1979 through 2017, annual numbers
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG14
Finding: Official unemployment was
quite low in Ohio for both men (5.3
percent) and women (4.7 percent) in
2017—not quite as low as in the late
1990s but lower than at almost any
other time in the past 39 years.
Figure 20Low unemployment for men and women, 1979-2017
4.9%
13.2%
7.9%
3.9%
11.8%
5.3%7.3%
11.2%
6.7%4.2%
8.6%
4.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1979
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
200
1
200
3
200
5
200
7
200
9
2011
2013
2015
2017
Male Female
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey data
JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
Finding: The good news about statewide overall unemployment obscures the fact that unemployment rates in
the black community (9.4 percent) in Ohio were more than double those facing white workers (4.2 percent) in
2017. The 9.4 percent level would be considered recession territory if it was faced by all workers. African-American
workers are more likely to lose work during downturns. When the labor market gets very tight, employers are
forced to turn to workers that they might otherwise pass over because of bias, including black workers. While
unemployment levels remain inequitable, unemployment for black Ohioans was lower in 2017 than at any time
since 2001, clearly a positive development.
Figure 19Unemployment by race
10.9%
3.8%
7.6%
4.2%
25.6%
7.4%
17.0%
9.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
19791981
19831985
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
20112013
20152017
White African-American
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey data
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG15
Finding: Ohioans are substantially more educated than they used to be. The share of adults over age 25 without a
high school degree in 2017 was less than half (10.5 percent) what it was in 1979 (24.4 percent). The share with at
least a high school degree correspondingly
shot up from just 75.7 percent in 1979 to
89.5 percent by last year. And, despite
the enormous and growing cost of higher
education, the share with a BA or more
has jumped 12 percentage points, from
14.7 percent in 1979 to 26.7 percent in
2017. Still, Ohio is lagging other states.
We ranked 25th among states in high
school graduation attainment, 37th among
states in BA attainment and 30th among
states in post-graduate education in 2011-
15 American Community Survey 5-year
estimates.
Finding: Higher education completion secures higher wages in Ohio, and this is truer than it used to be. Workers
with a BA earned $26.30 an hour in 2017, more than 10 dollars more each hour than any other educational
category. This equates to more than $21,000 more each year with full-time work. Since 1979, median wages have
declined in inflation-adjusted terms
for workers of all education levels
except for the minority of workers
with college degrees or more.
Inflation-adjusted median wages
fell from $15.64 in 1979 to just
$10.35 an hour in 2017 for those
who haven’t finished high school,
from $16.00 to $15.02 for those
with just a high school diploma,
and from $16.75 to $15.93 for
those with some college (either an
associate’s degree or an incomplete
BA). For those with at least a
college degree, median hourly
inflation-adjusted wages rose from
$21.38 to $26.30 over that period.
Figure 21Workers without college degrees fall behind
$15.64
$9.76 $10.35
$16.00
$15.02
$16.75
$15.93
$21.38
$28.16 $26.30
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Less than high school High school Some college Bachelor's or higher
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey data
JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
Figure 22More educated: Ohio education levels, 1979 and 2017
24.4%
75.7%
14.7%10.5%
89.5%
26.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
No HS degree HS or more BA or more
1979 2017
Source: 2017 data: US Census bureau quick facts https://bit.ly/2nKqurB, 1979 data: Current Population Survey
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG16
Finding: Union workers continued to out-earn non-
union workers at the median in 2017. The median
union worker earned $21.76 an hour that year,
compared to $16.98 an hour for non-union workers,
a difference of more than $4.75 an hour or more
than 28 percent. With full-time, year-round work,
this equates to more than $9,900 a year. Unionized
workers are also more likely to get retirement
benefits, health benefits, and overtime pay.
Figure 24Union premium, Ohio 2017
$21.76
$16.98
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Union Non-Union
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey data
JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
Finding: While increased education raises wages for black, white, male and female workers, black workers and
women still face inequitable wages compared to white workers and men, even when they have the same education
levels. For example, white workers with just a high school degree earned more than black workers with some
college, and men with just a high school degree earned substantially more than women with some college. White
workers with Bachelor’s degrees earned more than $4 more each hour than black workers with a BA and men with
a BA earned more than $4 more each hour than women with a BA at the median in 2017. These differences equate
to more than $9,000 a year with full-time, year-round work.
Figure 23Education doesn’t make up for race and gender inequity,
pooled years 2015-2017
$11.00 $12.26
$10.00
$12.26
$9.19
$17.00
$13.00
$16.21
$13.64
$17.40
$14.81
$26.00
$21.63
$28.85
$24.00
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
White workers Black workers Men Women
Less than HS HS only Some college BA or more
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey data, data pooled 2015-2017 to increase sample size. Insufficient numbers of black workers without a high school degree to include. Insufficient numbers of Hispanic and other workers to include at state level. When we pool several years of data, we have to also inflate the older year numbers to current dollars. Since wage growth has been below inflation in some recent years, this can lead to wages that look higher on pooled data. This data is most useful for comparing how different workers do, while larger data sets are better for understanding actual overall median wages.
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG17
Finding: In the wake of the Affordable Care Act,
Governor Kasich opted to expand Medicaid in
Ohio, paid for largely by the federal government.
This led to a substantial increase in health
insurance coverage for Ohioans. While 12.3
percent of Ohioans were uninsured in 2010,
prior to enforcement of the ACA, by 2016
just 5.6 percent of Ohioans lacked insurance.
This represents tremendous progress, but it
is threatened by attempts to repeal or erect
barriers to receiving Medicaid in Ohio.
Finding: White, black, male and female workers all earn substantially more when they are in a union in comparison
to non-unionized workers of the same race or gender. However, white workers and men in unions earn more than
unionized black or female workers.
White and male workers may be
in different unionized occupations
than black and female workers—
for example, white men are far
more likely to be in the highly-paid
building trades unions, while black
workers and women are more likely
to be in service sector or public
sector union jobs. Black workers are
more likely to be unionized in Ohio at
13 percent in 2016, compared to 10.5
percent for white workers, according
to the CPS.
Figure 25Unions raise wages for white, black, male and female Ohio workers,
pooled years 2015-17
$22.17
$15.85 **
$22.50 $20.00
$17.95
$13.28
$18.50
$15.38
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
White workers Black workers Men Women
Union Non-union
Source: EPI analysis of CPS pooled data, 2015-2017. **NOTE; sample size for non-unionized black men (74) is below the sample we normally require (100). African Americans are more likely to be in a union than white Ohioans but because they are a smaller share of the Ohio population, sample size remained inadequate and this number is somewhat less reliable than other numbers in this figure. Numbers of Hispanic and other ethnicity workers were also insufficient to include. When we pool several years of data, we have to also inflate the older year numbers to current dollars. Since wage growth has been below inflation in some recent years, this can lead to wages that look higher on pooled data. This data is most useful for comparing how different workers do, while larger data sets are better for understanding actual overall median wages.
Figure 26Uninsured rate halved after Affordable Care Act:
Share of Ohioans lacking health insurance, 2010-2016
12.3%11.5%
8.4%
5.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: American Community Survey, US Census, https://bit.ly/2whOUwy
JOBS: GROWING SLOWLY
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG18
Findings & Fixes: Summary & Recommendations
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG19
To summarize: What we find, in 2018, is that
unemployment is finally low in year nine of a long,
slow recovery in Ohio. We’ve also finally gotten
within throwing distance of restoring the jobs we
had prior to the 2000 recession (we’ve surpassed
the jobs at the start of the official recession in March
2001 but not the all-time peak jobs, in May 2000).
But labor force participation is still suppressed.
Further, despite what should be a roaring economy,
wages are simply not doing more than creeping
up—in fact wage growth was almost non-existent
in 2017, after better growth in 2015 and 2016, and
there is reason to think it may have slowed further
in 2018—it has nationally. Inequality is growing and
the very wealthiest are capturing almost all growth
in the economy, nationally and in Ohio. Though
workers are more productive and more educated
than in the past, they are not sharing in Ohio’s
growth or in the nation’s. And while education
and unions both help, Ohio is not doing enough to
support either of those important institutions.
We once took on some of our biggest economic
and social challenges with some gusto. In the early
20th century, to make a largely agrarian population
with low rates of formal education ready for the
challenges of the industrial age, America created
universal public education and eventually seeded
the planet’s best system of higher education. To
get products to market and dominate the globe’s
production of manufactured goods, Americans
invested in an interstate highway and rail system
that was unparalleled. To deal with poverty in the
wake of the Great Depression, we established social
security, set a minimum wage, and encouraged
unionization. And to address entrenched racism and
racial inequities, Americans sparked a Civil Rights
movement that demanded inclusion and challenged
white supremacy.
Today, some of our biggest problems are an
overheating planet, entrenched racial inequity,
worsening economic inequality, and a labor market
that, even when good, leaves many out. The high
share of our population that is addicted to opioids
and other drugs also needs targeted attention. But
instead of addressing these head-on, as we might
have in other times, policymakers are avoiding or
even worsening these problems. Our 26 findings
deserve assertive fixes. Below we offer 10, many of
which we earlier highlighted in A new way forward:
Ten ways to support Ohio’s working people.
1. Reverse the policies at the state and federal level that are directing tax cuts to the wealthiest Ohioans and Americans. These are
not creating sufficient numbers of good jobs to
pull all Ohioans into the labor market. Instead,
we should restore taxes on the wealthiest, who
have benefited most from our economy, and
direct spending toward drug treatment, worker
retraining, early education, infrastructure repairs
and energy investment. The first three will help
people leap the barriers that keep them out of
the workforce and the last two will create good
jobs in manufacturing and construction while
also solving societal problems.
2. Invest in conservation, renewable energy and transit to create high-quality jobs in communities throughout our state. Building
V. FINDINGS & FIXES: SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG20
and installing wind turbines and solar panels;
building, installing and driving transit vehicles;
and insulating and retrofitting buildings are all
activities that could employ manufacturing,
construction and other workers, particularly in
Ohio. They are worthy of investment in Ohio,
including maintaining and strengthening our
recently resumed advanced energy standard.
3. Protect working people’s right to organize. Oppose so called “right to work” laws both
nationally and here in Ohio and move to actually
encourage, not discourage unionization. This
will require innovative new approaches to
organizing, to counteract the barriers that the
Supreme Court and policy makers have erected,
which will reduce unionization.
4. Keep the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion that have done so much to insure Ohioans. Resist attempts to impose barriers like
additional paperwork or work requirements.
5. Restore the minimum wage. Increasing the
minimum wage to $15 by 2025 would give 1.8
million Ohio workers a much deserved and
overdue raise. Accompany a stronger minimum
wage with stronger labor law enforcement. Not
paying workers the minimum wage, not paying
for all hours worked and not paying overtime
when required are all against the law. This makes
them theft – wage theft.
6. Retain and strengthen unemployment and workers’ compensation. Unemployment
compensation and workers’ comp are essential
parts of a fair labor market. When workers lose
a job they need help through the transition.
When they’re hurt on the job, they need help
untill they recover. Resist attacks on these two
pillars of American labor law, and ensure that
employers pay their fair share to support the
unemployment compensation system that helps
our economy.
7. Restore the 40-hour work week: Improvements
to scheduling and overtime rules can bring
back stability to the work week and ensure that
salaried workers earning under $48,000 are paid
for all the hours they work. Restored overtime
protections would cover 351,000 Ohio workers.
8. Expand earned leave, so workers who’ve put
in time can get through the birth of a child,
the death of a parent, or their own illness with
the balance that they need to be good family
members and good employees. Twenty-five
years after the Family Medical Leave Act only 13
percent of private sector workers have any paid
family leave. There is no federal law requiring
paid sick leave. Ohio law could provide workers
with the opportunity to earn leave.
9. Stop incarcerating people for non-violent crimes. Instead offer treatment for drug use,
help probationers avoid reincarceration, and
create better incentives for incarcerated adults
to behave and take part in rehabilitation, so they
can rejoin their families and the economy. Every
Ohioan has a chance to vote for these changes
when Issue 1 appears on the ballot in November.
10. Empower local governments to pass their
own laws to protect working people in their
communities. The state has preempted that
right, undermining local attempts to control
fracking, protect civil rights, or expand worker
rights. If the state won’t protect us, our
communities must be allowed to do so.
FINDINGS & FIXES: SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS
STATE OF WORKING OH I O 2 018 // P OL I CYM ATTER S OHIO.ORG21
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to Sonia Garfinkel, David Cooper and Janelle Jones for research that contributed to this report and to the Ford and George Gund Foundations for financial support that makes this work possible.