1Climate Change and Disaster Risk

Information, methods and tools

Session 3World Bank Institute

Maarten van Aalst

2Climate Change and Disaster Risk

Information, methods and tools for climate risk reduction

Global warming

Rising disaster impacts

Climate risk management

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Key Source of Information on Climate Change

Global Climate Models

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Challenges/limitations of model simulations:

Uncertain future GHG emissions

Model uncertainties/shortcomings

Spatial resolution Difficulties of

modeling extremes

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Climate information at shorter timescales

Enhanced climate risk management by using information at intermediate timescale:

climate forecasts for the next few months(getting better quickly)

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Example

1-2 week global hazard forecasts

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Sources of information (1)

People/Institutions

Meteorological Office

Climate Change Focal Point (often in Ministry of Environment)

National and international science institutes

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Sources of information (2)

Online information

IPCC www.ipcc.chUNFCCC www.unfccc.int

national communications national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs)

International research institutes, such as IRI

Specialized agencies, such as WHO

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Sources of information (3)

Visualization tools

e.g. SERVIR Viz http://servir.nsstc.nasa.gov/

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Examples of methods and tools (1)

ADAPT RISK FLAGS

Red flag – adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended Yellow flag – some concerns, which should be checked Orange flag – Not enough known to assess Green flag – No adaptation issues foreseen Blue flag – Positive action for adaptation

Project design/risk screening ADAPT (investments projects) CRISTAL (community level)

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Adapt (1)

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Adapt (2)

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Cristal (1)

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Cristal (2)

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Examples of methods and tools (2)

Portfolio screening processes, e.g. OECD DGIS ORCHID

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Orchid

Sensitization and awareness-

raisingStrategic Overview

Initial Portfolio Screening

Climate change and disasters profile

Climate change and disasters assessment

Adaptation / Risk reduction options

Adaptation options integratedRisk screening of future programming

Options assessment Cost benefit analysis

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Examples of methods and tools (3)

Climate risk management process guidance

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Key elements of climate risk reduction for DM organizations

Preliminary climate risk assessment: assess how risks are changing

Assess priorities and plan follow up Implementation within regular programs

Cross-cutting elements:

Raising awareness on changing risks; Establishing and enhancing partnerships; Documenting and sharing experiences

and information.