Informational Forum Informational Forum... · 2020-05-15 · Informational Forum Agenda • Executive Report • COVID-19 Update • Market and Operations Report • Legal Update

May 2020

Informational Forum

1

Informational Forum Agenda

• Executive Report

• COVID-19 Update

• Market and Operations Report

• Legal Update

• Upcoming Events/Workshops

• Review of Action Items

2



• COVID-19 Update


• Legal Update



3

Executive Update

• COVID-19: Looking Toward the Next Phase

• Reliability Imperative: Continued Progress

• Planning Futures

4



• COVID-19 Update


• Legal Update



5

COVID-19 Update

• Core Operations Personnel

• Market and Operations Impacts

• Future Scenarios: Returning to “Normal”

6



• COVID-19 Update


• Legal Update



7

8

Lower temperatures and COVID-19

stay at home orders contributed to lower peak load

Reliability, markets and operational functions performed well in April

HIGHLIGHTS

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT

South Region

April 12-13; April 19-20; April 22-23Tornados, storms, hail, high winds

COVID-19

By April 6, 11 the 15 MISO states were under a stay

at home order. By the end of the month, three states

had ended their orders and the remaining are set to

expire before the end of May

WIND

New Wind Peak – 18 GW (April 9)

32% decrease in prices from last April

driven by low fuel prices and COVID-19 load impacts

8181

8373

2017 2018 2019 2020

$30 $29$26

$18

2017 2018 2019 2020

$/M

Wh

PEAK LOAD

REAL-TIME LMP

● Expected ◼ Concern/Monitor ▼Review

Note: Dashboard metric criteria are reviewed and revised each year. Dashboard metric criteria are included in the Appendix.

Dashboard

9

Operational Excellence

Metric Chart

Current Month

Indicator

Previous Three MonthIndicators

Metric Chart

Current

Month

Indicator

Previous Three

Month Indicators

April2020

March2020

Feb2020

Jan 2020

April2020

March2020

Feb2020

Jan 2020

Percentage Price Deviation A ● ● ● ●Real-Time Obligation fulfilled by Day-Ahead Supply at the Peak Hour

I ● ● ● ●

Monthly Average Gross Virtual Profitability

B ● ● ● ●Day Ahead Wind Generation Forecast Error

K ● ● ●

FTR Funding C ● ● ● ● Tie Line Error L ● ● ● ●

Market Efficiency Metric D ■ ● ■ ■Control Performance –BAAL

M ● ● ● ●

RSG per MWh to Energy Price

E ● ● ● ●Control Performance –CPS1 and CPS1 12-month rolling

N ● ● ● ●

Day Ahead Mid-Term Load Forecast

F ■ ■ ● ● ARS Deployment P ● ● ● ●

Short-Term Load Forecast G ● ● ● ●

Unit Commitment Efficiency H N/A* N/A* ■ ●

Customer Service

System Impact Study Performance

Q ● ● ● ● On-Time Real-Time Posting U ● ● ● ●

Settlement Disputes S ● ● ● ●On-Time Day-AheadPosting

V ● ● ● ●

* Revised metric calculation in draft status, subject to approval by the MISO Board of Directors

10

The Market Efficiency and Day Ahead Mid-Term Load Forecast metrics were in Monitor status in April

MetricExpected

Criteria

April

ActualStatus Comments

Market

Efficiency

Monthly Metric is >= 92% and

Rolling 12-Month Metric is

>= 94%

April = 88%;

Rolling 12-

month = 93.6%

Monitor

High wind days, storms in

the South Region and

changes to outage

schedules contributed to

underfunding

Day-Ahead

Mid-Term

Load Forecast

# of days that forecast error

exceeds 2% <=6 AND # days that

forecast error exceeds 3% <=4 AND # of days forecast error

exceeds 6% = 0

On April 6, 2020

the load forecast

error was 6.5%

Monitor

Actual load came in lower

than forecast due to

COVID-19 related closures

By mid-month, MISO

applied an enhancement to

the forecasting model to

better account for COVID-

19 impacts, and forecast

errors have subsequently

declined to normal levels

Noteworthy

• The physical separation for all staff to reduce the spread of COVID-19 with all

non-control room staff working from home will continue until at least until

June 1

• In mid-April, MISO reported results of the 2020/2021 Planning Resource

Auction (PRA):

• MISO has sufficient resources to meet its Planning Reserve Margin

Requirements for the year starting June 1, 2020

• Most zones cleared between $4.75-$6.88/MW-day

• Zone 7 (MI) cleared at Cost of New Entry (CONE) $257.53/MW-day due

to insufficient local capacity to meet Zone 7 Local Clearing Requirement

• On April 28, MISO filed tariff revisions with FERC to provide a permanent

framework for handling a Restorative Event

11



• COVID-19 Update


• Legal Update



12

13

250 Total Legal Filings as of 05/14/2020

Yearly Filing Comparison

14

2017 = 423

2018 = 453

2019 = 541

2020 = 250 Year to Date

Recent Filings & Orders Received

15

Please visit our website for the most recent filings and orders received.

Filings:https://www.misoenergy.org/legal/ferc-filings/

Orders:https://www.misoenergy.org/legal/ferc-orders/

https://www.misoenergy.org/legal/ferc-filings/

https://www.misoenergy.org/legal/ferc-orders/

45-Day Outlook of Upcoming Filings

16

#AnticipatedFiling Date

DocketNumber(s)

Description of Filing

1 5/18/2020 ER20-____-000MISO to submit a Tariff filing proposing enhancements to LMR accreditation to help ensure increased availability during emergency conditions.

2 5/22/2020 ER20-____-000

MISO to submit revisions to the MISO-PJM JOA (Rate Schedule 05) to clarify that the RTOs are explicitly permitted to release EMS models and the data used for current and future EMS modeling, exchanged in accordance with the JOA, to its respective Transmission Owners for operational and reliability compliance purposes.

3 5/26/2020 ER20-588-000MISO to submit post-technical conference comments regarding the storage facility as a transmission-only asset proceeding.*Motion to extend the comment date from May 25 to June 8 filed 5/8/20

4 5/29/2020 ER20-____-000MISO to submit Tariff revisions to the Transmission Owners Agreement (Rate Schedule 01) to reflect the addition of the new Affiliate sector to the Advisory Committee.

5 5/29/2020 ER20-____-000MISO to submit Tariff filings to help ensure that the Installed Capacity (ICAP) of both conventional and intermittent Capacity Resources are fully deliverable.

6 6/1/2020 ER20-____-000MISO to submit Tariff revisions to provide a solution to the potential issue with insufficient compensation during Manual Redispatch.

Dates are estimated unless in response to a specific FERC deadline

45-Day Outlook of Upcoming Filings

17

#AnticipatedFiling Date

DocketNumber(s)

Description of Filing

7 6/8/2020 ER20-____-000MISO to submit a Tariff filing to clarify registration and other processes related to Aggregator of Retail Customers (ARCs) participation in MISO markets.

8 6/8/2020 ER20-____-000MISO to submit revisions to Attachment FF-4 to add GridLiance Heartland LLC to the Separate Local Planning Processes.

9 6/15/2020 ER20-____-000MISO to submit revisions to remove the exemption from Physical Withholding penalty charges for Resources that are not Planning Resources under Module E-1 of the Tariff.

Dates are estimated unless in response to a specific FERC deadline



• COVID-19 Update


• Legal Update



18

Upcoming Key Meetings and WorkshopsAdditional details and a list of all upcoming events is available at www.misoenergy.org/stakeholder-engagement/calendar

• May 20: Advisory Committee Meeting

• May 21: MISO Forward Workshop

• May 26: MISO Operational Forecasting Workshop: Load and

Renewable Generation

• June 10: Integrated Roadmap 5-Year Work Plan Update Workshop

• June 19: MTEP Futures Workshop

• July 21: Informational Forum

Upcoming 2020 Board of Directors Meetings

• June 16-18 (virtual; telephone and Webex)

• September 15-17

• December 8-10

http://www.misoenergy.org/stakeholder-engagement/calendar/#/month/04-17-2019



• COVID-19 Update


• Legal Update



20

Appendix Market and Operations Report

ContentsPricing• MISO System-wide DA and RT LMPs• Price Convergence: DA and RT LMP • MISO DA and RT Hub LMPs• Peak/Off-Peak Price Duration Curves• MISO Hubs RT Price Duration Peak/Off-Peak Hours• Ancillary Services - DA and RT Market Clearing Prices• DA Congestion Collections• Monthly Average Gross Virtual Profitability• Daily Gross Cleared-Virtual Profitability• Nominal Fuel Prices

Settlements• FTR Monthly and YTD Allocation Funding• Market Efficiency Metric• DA and RT Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG)• Price Volatility Make Whole Payment

Load• RT Load and System Temperature Summary • Load Duration Curve and Weather Summary• DA Mid-Term Load Forecast• Short-Term Load Forecast• Average Load by Region• DA and RT Cleared Physical Energy• Energy Transfer between MISO South and Central/North

Generation and Unit Commitment• Unit Commitment Efficiency• Self Commitment and Economically Dispatched Energy• Trend in Self Commitment and Economically Dispatched

Energy

Generation and Unit Commitment (Cont’d)• DA Supply and RT Obligation at the Peak Load Hour• Offered Capacity and RT Peak Load Obligation• Marginal Fuel• Dispatched Generation Fuel Mix by Region• Peak Load Hour and Daily Average LMR Availability• Day-Ahead Wind Forecast Performance: MAE• Day-Ahead Wind Forecast Performance: MAPE • Monthly Wind Energy Generation• Daily Wind Generation and Curtailment• Monthly Wind Energy and Renewable Energy Target• Solar Energy Generation • RT Dispatched Generation by Fuel Type• Monthly Generation Outages and Derates• Generation Outages by Fuel

Reliability• Transmission Outages • Minimum and Maximum Generation Notifications• Tie Line and BAAL Performance• CPS1 Performance• Reliability — Other Metrics

Transmission Planning• Transmission Service Request• Generation Interconnect Queue• Generator Suspension/Retirement

Customer Service/Market Support• Settlements/Customer Relations• Market/Operations IT Applications Availability

22NOTE: Market outcomes from previous months have not been adjusted for membership changes, unless otherwise noted.

Caution should be used when making any comparisons.

23

24

A

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

B

34

Financial Transmission Rights, Monthly and Rolling Year-to-Date Allocation Funding

102.6

2

92.3

1

103.8

2

135.5

2

89.7

2

142.5

8

159.0

6

155.3

6

92.3

4

80.2

6

79.2

8

101.8

5

106.0

8

0.39

1.17

5.90

3.86

3.38

4.27

9.22 4.32

3.92

1.74 0.00

0.00 1.98

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20

$ i

n M

illi

on

s

FTR Funding

Monthly Funding for Credits Net Shortfall

35


Monthly FTR Allocation (%) 99.6% 98.8% 94.6% 97.2% 96.4% 97.1% 94.5% 97.3% 95.9% 97.9% 100.0% 100.0% 98.2%

YTD FTR Allocation (%) 98.8% 98.8% 98.1% 97.9% 97.8% 97.7% 97.2% 97.2% 97.1% N/A N/A N/A 100.0%

Values may change due to resettlement

Source: MISO Market ECF Report

* YTD metric is applied beginning April

C

Market Efficiency Metric

75.00%

80.00%

85.00%

90.00%

95.00%

100.00%


Monthly and Rolling 12-Month Market Efficiency Metric

Monthly Market Efficiency Rolling 12-month Market Efficiency Monthly Monitor Threshold Rolling 12-month Monitor Threshold

36


Monthly Market Efficiency 96.1% 93.1% 91.5% 94.6% 93.5% 95.9% 91.4% 96.7% 92.2% 91.5% 96.2% 97.0% 88.0%

Rolling 12-month Market Efficiency 98.2% 97.0% 96.4% 95.8% 95.0% 94.2% 93.8% 94.1% 93.9% 93.6% 93.9% 94.2% 93.6%


Source: MISO Market ECF Report

D

Day-Ahead and Real-Time Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee

3.90 2.64 2.25 1.87 1.66 1.77 2.47 2.67 2.77 2.21 1.71 1.89 1.64

3.6

1

6.0

7

4.6

5

5.0

9

4.8

6

3.2

4 5.9

5

5.6

3

5.3

4

0.8

4

1.1

5

1.5

7

2.9

8

0.16

0.17

0.12

0.11 0.10

0.09

0.160.16

0.15

0.05 0.05

0.07

0.10

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10


$/M

Wh

$ in

Millio

ns

Day-Ahead MWP Real-Time MWP Total MWP per MWH Load Served**


2.46 2.37 2.10 2.17 1.98 2.12 1.98 2.54 2.11 1.93 1.74 1.58 1.68

0.57 0.63 0.51 0.41 0.44 0.35 0.72 0.62 0.67 0.26 0.27 0.35 0.57

2.59 2.59 2.32 2.35 2.15 2.53 2.22 2.63 2.20 2.00 1.87 1.77 1.69Henry Gas Prices

Chicago Gas Prices

RSG per MWh to Energy Price (%)

37Values may change due to resettlement

**Hourly ICCP data

Natural Gas Prices in $/MMBtu

Source: The Web-based Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee Report

E

Price Volatility Make Whole Payment

38

0.040.04

0.02

0.03

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.05

0.02

0.03

0.02

0.03

0.05

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50


$/M

Wh

$ in

Millio

ns

DAMAP RTORSGP Avg PVMWP per MWh


* Hourly ICC dataSource: The Web-based Revenue Neutrality Uplift Report

67.2 70.877.8

88.1 84.1 79.569.3 73.0 74.3 75.8 75.2

68.561.6

83.0

92.7

107.8

120.9

114.0

106.9

101.2

95.4 95.5 94.4 96.1

80.0

73.5


GW

Monthly System Wide Real Time Peak and Average Load

Avg Load Peak Load

Real-Time Load and System Temperature Summary

39

Month Avg Max Min

Apr-20 51.07 74.26 30.05

Mar-20 46.34 63.63 29.05

Apr-19 52.95 73.54 30.11

Statistics for System-wide Load-weighted Temperature

Load Duration Curve and Weather Summary

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

GW

Number of Hours

Apr-2020

Mar-2020

Apr-2019

Month Avg (HDD) Std Dev (HDD)

Apr-20 11.34 8.17

Mar-20 15.67 6.96

Apr-19 9.64 7.28

Statistics for Load Weighted Heating Degree

Days (HDD)

Month Avg (CDD) Std Dev (CDD)

Apr-20 0.41 1.55

Mar-20 0.01 0.11

Apr-19 0.59 1.83

Statistics for Load Weighted Cooling Degree

Days (CDD)

40

110GW 100GW 80GW 60GW

0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 443 (61.53%)

0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 692 (93.01%)

0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 4 (0.56%) 593 (82.36%)

Hours with Load Greater than:

The weather index is the wind chill index for the winter months, dry bulb temperature during the fall and spring months, and heat index during the summer months

Load-weighted Heating Degree Days (HDD) is defined as max(62 – Load weighted Weather Index,0)

Load-weighted Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is defined as max(Load weighted Weather Index- 62,0)

* Hourly ICC load dataSource: MISO Market and Operations Analytics Department

Day-Ahead Mid-Term Load Forecast*

-1%

4%

9%

14%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

Err

or

Pe

rce

nt

GW

Daily MTLF: Actual vs. Mid-Term Forecasted Daily Peak Load

MTLF Peak Integrated Load Forecast Error Threshholds

Peak Day Peak HE

04/08/20 18

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


Err

or

Pe

rce

nt

GW

Monthly MTLF: Average of Actual vs. Mid-Term Forecasted Daily Peak Load Monthly

MTLF Peak Integrated Load Forecast Error %


% Std of Error (CV) 71.49 66.62 61.20 67.40 96.57 84.16 70.94 77.35 66.65 68.59 83.07 84.60 108.39

Mean of Error (MW) 677 896 1909 1690 1312 1234 721 910 929 925 840 1101 921

Std of Error (MW) 484 597 1168 1139 1267 1038 512 704 619 635 698 932 999

41

* Monthly data based on the average of the daily integrated peak hours in the month

* Daily data based on the integrated peak hour of the day* Peak Day and Hour End based on Hourly Integrated Peak Load Hour

Source: MISO Forecast Engineering Department

F

Short-Term Load Forecast*

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

GW

Actual vs. Short-Term Forecasted Daily Peak Load

STLF Peak Load Forecast Error % Error Threshold

Mean Absolute Percent Error = 0.27%

Peak Day Peak HE

04/08/20 18

42 Source: MISO Forecast Engineering Department

Daily data based on the average of five-minute interval data at the peak hour of the day

Error Threshold calculated as 95% quantile of Forecast Error from Jan-Dec of the previous year

Peak Day and Hour End based on Hourly Integrated Peak Load Hour

G

15.30 14.9416.50

18.7717.23 16.28 15.56

17.06 17.49 17.76 17.2815.78

14.23


GW

North Region

34.79 35.76 39.0746.33 43.00 40.10

35.36 37.85 38.37 39.43 39.54 35.2630.83


GW

Central Region

17.1620.14

22.26 23.00 23.83 23.1518.39 18.09 18.48 18.59 18.42 17.47 16.54


GW

South Region

Hourly Integrated Peak Load Hour* 4/8/2020 HE 18

MISO Peak load 73.23 GW

North Peak Load 14.94 GW

Central Peak Load 35.65 GW

South Peak Load 22.65 GW

Average Load by Region

43* Monthly data based on hourly ICCP load data; Hourly Integrated Peak Load Hour could differ from the Instantaneous Peak Load Hour Source: MISO Market and Operations Analytics Department

Day-Ahead and Real-Time Cleared Physical Energy

48.4

52.7

56.0

65.5

62.5

57.3

51.6

52.6

55.3

56.4

52.4

51.0

44.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


TW

h

Total Real-Time Load*

46.8

50.7

54.2

63.2

60.6

55.3

49.8

50.4

53.1

54.3

50.4

49.1

42.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


TW

h

Total Day-Ahead Physical Load

1.28 1.27 1.32 1.82 1.47 1.42 1.24 1.32 1.16 1.21 0.99 0.89 0.78


Real-Time Cleared Load Value ($ in Billions)

1.45 1.49 1.50 1.95 1.66 1.59 1.30 1.44 1.30 1.30 1.16 1.07 0.89


Day-Ahead Cleared Load Value (including Virtuals) ($ in Billions)

44* Sum of Hourly ICCP load data

Source: MISO Market and Operations Analytics Department


Percent of time flow in

North to South direction40% 65% 60% 13% 20% 43% 33% 51% 30% 17% 17% 31% 37%

Percent of time flow in

South to North direction60% 35% 40% 87% 80% 57% 67% 49% 70% 83% 83% 69% 63%

Energy Transfer between MISO South and Central/North

8061039

1410

574

1019832 914

785915

1195958 1005 937909 824

1110

14271321

9731143

857

1310

15981396 1341

1139

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500


MW

Monthly Average Flows in Each DirectionFLOW (N-S) FLOW (S-N) Current Limit (N-S) Current Limit (S-N)

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Ap

r-0

1

Ap

r-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

Ap

r-0

4

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

1

Ap

r-2

2

Ap

r-2

3

Ap

r-2

4

Ap

r-2

5

Ap

r-2

6

Ap

r-2

7

Ap

r-2

8

Ap

r-2

9

Ap

r-3

0

MW

2020

Hourly Flow between South and Central/North Regions

Hourly Flow Current Limit (N-S) Current Limit (S-N)

So

uth

to

No

rth

No

rth to

So

uth

% of time binding

South_North_Flow 5.4%

North_South_Flow 0.0%

45

Unit Commitment Efficiency

46 Source: MISO Optimal Dispatch Calculator

Effectively commit generation to meet demand obligations and mitigate constraints

H

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Monthly Unit Commitment Efficiency 93.3% 81.1% N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rolling 12-Month Unit Commitment Efficiency 93.3% 90.6% N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

YTD Unit Commitment Efficiency 93.3% 90.6% N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

N/A N/A

47

48

Day-Ahead Supply and Real-Time Obligation at the Peak Load Hour

Incremental RT3DA Supply1

Day-Ahead Supply1 and Real-Time Obligation2 at the Peak HourGW unless otherwise noted

Weekend/Holiday Days

73.69 80.10 92.21

106.00 100.22 96.80 78.54 81.39 83.93 84.68 85.64

76.77 68.99

98%99%

100%

99%99%

101%

100% 100% 100% 100% 102%101%

101%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


GW

10

4.2

%

10

1.7

%

10

1.4

%

98

.7%

10

5.2

%

10

1.0

%

98

.9%

10

3.1

%

10

3.5

%

97

.8%

95

.8%

10

3.7

%

10

1.5

%

10

5.0

%

99

.7%

10

0.1

%

10

0.3

%

10

6.1

%

98

.9%

10

3.3

%

95

.8%

10

0.9

%

96

.7%

98

.2%

10

2.6

%

99

.7%

98

.1%

10

3.2

%

10

8.6

%

10

0.1

%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

GW

s

4/1 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 4/7 4/8 4/9 4/10 4/11 4/12 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 4/25 4/26 4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30

-2.97 -1.14 -0.95 0.85 -3.43 -0.71 0.82 -2.29 -2.51 1.42 2.68 -2.40 -1.05 -3.54 0.23 -0.07 -0.22 -3.89 0.74 -2.25 2.94 -0.59 2.30 1.22 -1.67 0.18 1.28 -2.21 -5.80 -0.09

Incremental GW Committed in Real-Time

49

1Day-Ahead Economic Maximum received in Real-Time plus Behind-the-Meter plus Day-Ahead NSI at the Peak Hour 2Real-Time ICCP Load plus Real-Time Regulation Requirement plus Real-Time Spinning Requirement at the Peak hour

3Real-Time Obligation2 less Day-Ahead Supply1 at the Peak hour

*Percents calculated as Day-Ahead Supply1 divided by Real-Time Obligation2


I

Offered Capacity and Real-Time Peak Load Obligation

Average Net Scheduled Interchange over all hours

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas*

CC

CT

Other**

1Real-Time peak

load obligation

Coal

Wind

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

50Source: MISO Market and Operations Analytics Department

1Real-Time ICCP Load plus Real-Time Regulation Requirement plus Real-Time Spinning Requirement at the daily Peak hour

*Gas excludes CC and CT units.

**Other includes DRR as well as SER, oil ,pet coke and waste units.

Offered Capacity MW (Hourly Average per category)

Marginal Fuel

Percentage of Time a Fuel is Marginal in the Real-Time Market4

0.9

%

46

.8%

30

.8%

0.4

%

0.0

%

1.2

%

19

.3%

24

.0%

53

.1%

35

.7%

0.0

%

0.4

%

2.4

%

15

.8%

32

.7%

49

.9%

33

.2%

0.2

%

0.2

%

1.8

%

17

.6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

CC COAL GAS NUCLEAR OIL HYDRO WIND

April 2020Off-Peak On-Peak Total

51

Note: Binding transmission constraints can produce instances where more than one unit is marginal in the system. Consequently, more than one fuel may be on the margin; and since each marginal unit is included in the analysis, the percentage may sum to more than 100%.

^^Gas excludes Combined Cycle units


44.6%40.1%

24.5% 20.5%

9.1% 5.5%

17.0%18.0%

16.0%16.6%

19.6%19.7%

30.5%32.6%

10.8%11.8%

64.9% 68.0%

5.8% 7.0%

46.2% 48.0%

2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 3.0% 6.4%6.7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Mar-20 Central Apr-20 Central Mar-20 North Apr-20 North Mar-20 South Apr-20 South

COAL NUCLEAR GAS WIND Other

Dispatched Generation Fuel Mix by Region

52*Based on five-minute unit level generation dispatch target


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000


Av

aila

ble

LM

R (

MW

)

Daily Average LMR Availability and Voluntary Load Reduction by Month

BTMG DR Voluntary Load Reduction 13-Month Average of Monthly LMR Availability

0166

1301

205 287

0229

46418374

1089

882462

131

0112

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Ava

ila

ble

LM

R (

MW

)

Notification Time (Hours)

LMR Availability at Monthly Instantaneous Peak Load Hour: 04/08/2020 HE 18

DR

BTMG

Peak Load Hour and Daily Average LMR Availability**

53

2018/2019 PRA Auction Results 2019/2020 PRA Auction Results

Total Cleared BTMG Capacity 4,098 MW 4,097 MW

Total Cleared DR Capacity 6,964 MW 7,372 MW

** Availability based on data reported by market participants in the MISO Market Communication System.


5.7

7.1

9.8

8.0

6.2

4.9 4.2

3.7

6.4

8.0 7.8 8.3

7.6

9.8 9.4

12.5

0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

(1.0)

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

20

18

20

19

20

20 Y

TD

Apr-

19

Ma

y-1

9

Jun-1

9

Jul-1

9

Aug-1

9

Sep-1

9

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Jan-2

0

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

20

-Apr

Mean

Ab

so

lute

Perc

en

t E

rro

r (%

)

Win

d A

ctu

al

an

d E

rro

r(G

W)

Day Ahead Wind Forecast Performance

Actual Wind MAE MAPE

54

Day-Ahead Wind Forecast Performance: Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

K

55

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

4/1

/20

20

4/2

/20

20

4/3

/20

20

4/4

/20

20

4/5

/20

20

4/6

/20

20

4/7

/20

20

4/8

/20

20

4/9

/20

20

4/1

0/2

02

0

4/1

1/2

02

0

4/1

2/2

02

0

4/1

3/2

02

0

4/1

4/2

02

0

4/1

5/2

02

0

4/1

6/2

02

0

4/1

7/2

02

0

4/1

8/2

02

0

4/1

9/2

02

0

4/2

0/2

02

0

4/2

1/2

02

0

4/2

2/2

02

0

4/2

3/2

02

0

4/2

4/2

02

0

4/2

5/2

02

0

4/2

6/2

02

0

4/2

7/2

02

0

4/2

8/2

02

0

4/2

9/2

02

0

4/3

0/2

02

0

Mean

Ab

so

lute

Perc

en

tag

e E

rro

r (%

)

Mean

Ab

so

lute

Err

or

(MW

)

Operating Day

DA MAE DA MAPE

Day-Ahead Wind Forecast Performance: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Monthly Wind Energy Generation

487 443 319 257 228 425 583 498 475 430 510 500 474

5,234

4,142

3,2272,881

2,486

4,133

5,3875,175 5,409

5,009

5,940 5,9195,643

5,721

4,584

3,546

3,138

2,714

4,558

5,9695,674

5,883

5,439

6,450 6,4196,117

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000


GW

h

Non Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (non-DIR) Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIR)

56

Registered Wind Capacity = 23,204 MW

Registered DIR Capacity = 21,078 MW

14,506 13,418 12,340 11,152 12,103 12,309 15,494 15,879 16,597 15,644 17,343 17,073 17,869

20.4% 17.4% 15.6% 9.8% 12.5% 17.2% 20.6% 20.5% 20.4% 22.0% 19.3% 24.8% 25.5%

13.2% 10.0% 7.3% 5.4% 5.1% 9.1% 13.0% 11.7% 11.8% 10.8% 13.8% 14.5% 15.8%

4.6% 9.6% 6.8% 6.7% 5.9% 5.9% 7.0% 5.3% 6.8% 5.3% 5.7% 7.6% 7.9%


Wind Energy as a

percent of MISO Energy

DIR dispatched below

Max as % of avail. DIR*

Peak hourly wind output

(MW)

Peak wind output as %

of MISO load in that hour

*Hourly State Estimator data


Daily Wind Generation and Curtailment

57

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10-A

pr

11-A

pr

12-A

pr

13-A

pr

14-A

pr

15-A

pr

16-A

pr

17-A

pr

18-A

pr

19-A

pr

20-A

pr

21-A

pr

22-A

pr

23-A

pr

24-A

pr

25-A

pr

26-A

pr

27-A

pr

28-A

pr

29-A

pr

30-A

pr

MW

Wind Avg Generation in Peak and Off-Peak Hours

Peak Off-Peak

Avg Wind

Curtailment (MW)4/1 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 4/7 4/8 4/9 4/10 4/11 4/12 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 4/25 4/26 4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30

Peak Hours 1,000 181 59 - - 122 137 1,609 912 42 - - 540 56 47 46 374 - - 2,415 323 525 13 34 - - 296 988 2,299 145

Off-Peak Hours 2,527 2,841 68 48 552 1,363 1,286 117 155 19 116 812 414 36 21 50 588 2,661 244 349 1,091 3,927 13 40 55 153 1,907 1,560 2,992 866


Monthly Wind Energy and Renewable Energy Target

58

5721

4584

3546

3138

2714

4558

5969

5674

5883

5439

6450

6419

6117

2,2

60

2,3

07

2,4

82 3

,028

2,7

93

2,4

92

2,3

61

2,4

64

2,6

09

2,9

03

2,6

61

2,5

66

2,2

00

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000


GW

h

Total monthly Wind Energy Estimated Renewable Energy Target**

Source: MISO Real-Time Operations Department

**Monthly wind energy generated (light blue) compared to monthly renewable energy target (yellow bar) to satisfy approximate aggregate State RPS mandates within MISO’s market footprint. Additional information can be found under Stakeholder Center/Committees, Work Groups, and

Task Forces/Informational Forum – Related Documents** Yellow bar represents the annual renewable energy target distributed by month based on monthly capacity factor expectations of the MISO system

Values may change due to resettlement*Sum of hourly State Estimator data.

https://www.midwestiso.org/_layouts/MISO/ECM/Redirect.aspx?ID=93257

Solar Energy and Daily Peak

59

55

64 69 71

68

53

38

30 24 23

39

46

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


GW

h

Total Solar Energy Generation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

MW

Day of Month

Daily Peak Solar Generation: April 2020

Source: MISO Forecast Department

*Hourly State Estimator data

Registered Solar Capacity = 764 MW

* Based on five-minute unit level generation dispatch target** Hourly Committed Generation Dispatch Target; imports excluded

Real-Time Dispatched Generation by Fuel Type

60 Source: MISO Market and Operations Analytics Department

Total hourly integrated Real-Time generation** = 38,620 GWh

61

62

63

MISO Inadvertent Balance

64

Month/Year Net On-Peak Off-Peak

Apr-19 8,503 12,905 -4,402

May-19 9,207 14,480 -5,273

Jun-19 12,344 7,794 4,550

Jul-19 15,083 11,331 3,752

Aug-19 20,713 11,185 9,528

Sep-19 21,579 10,213 11,366

Oct-19 20,243 8,562 11,681

Nov-19 10,860 3,028 7,832

Dec-19 8,825 4,053 4,772

Jan-20 18,130 4,238 13,982

Feb-20 28,299 15,198 13,101

Mar-20

Apr-20

Running Total from 2009 3,499 4,506 -1,007

Source: NERC Tool (as of February 14, 2020)

Generation Notifications

65

Maximum Generation ActionsSystem-wide or transmission contingency related capacity shortages that may jeopardize the reliable operation of all or part of the MISO system

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Co

un

t

Alerts Warnings Events

0

3

2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1

0 00 0

1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00

1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Co

un

t



* Alerts – forecasting specific emergency situations in a future time-frame* Warnings – experiencing initial stages of an emergency situation and taking action* Events – experiencing an emergency situation and taking action

Minimum Generation ActionsSupply surplus situations during light load periods when on-line resources need to operate at Emergency Minimum levels or be decommitted as to

not over burden the interconnected system

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Co

un

t


3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0


Sco

reTie Line and BAAL Performance

Score Interpretation 3:Excellent; 2:Good; 1: Needs Improvement; 0: Unacceptable

Balancing Authority Area Control Error Limit PerformanceM

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


66 Source: MISO Real-Time Operations Department

The Balancing Authority Area Control Error Limit (BAAL) measures control performance over the short-term. Exceeding BAAL for a continuous time period greater than 30 minutes constitutes a non-compliant event. The daily MISO BAAL performance rating is the lowest scored incident of

the day.

LTie Line Error

Events when 15 minute average tie-line error exceeded +/- 1000 MW

133.5

134.0

131.2

126.5

127.7

128.4

130.4

133.9

137.6

135.5

131.0

132.9

133.4

137.1

137.8

137.6

136.7

135.8

135.2

134.4

134.4

134.0

133.4

132.6

131.8

131.8


Pe

rce

nt

Co

mp

lia

nce

Monthly CPS1 Performance

Monthly Rolling (12 month) CPS1 Target

CPS1 Performance

40

60

80

100

120

140

1604/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0Pe

rce

nt

Co

mp

lia

nce

CPS1 Daily Average

CPS1 Percentage CPS 1 Target

67

Per NERC Standard BAL-001-0 and MISO OP-044, the MISO will monitor CPS 1 performance and implement actions to ensure the MISO’s rolling 12-month CPS 1 performance exceeds 100%


N

37.4 27.3 29.611.9

223.3 223.2 224.1 228.4

Apr-20 Mar-20 2020 YTD Avg 2019 Avg

Mean

STD

Reliability — Other Metrics

Transmission Loading Relief (TLR) Events Area Control Error (ACE)MW

Levels:3 – curtailing non-firm4 – curtailing non-firm and reconfiguring5 – curtailing firm6 – emergency

Manual Redispatches (Count)

Contingency Reserve Sharing# of ARS events

P

0

2

4

0

3

4

Level 6

Level 5

Level 3 & 4

Apr-20 Mar-20

April 2020

572 MWh Non-Firm MWh Curtailed

13,270 MWh Firm MWh Curtailed

9

13

8

11


68 Source: MISO Real-Time Operations Department

MISO deployed Contingency Reserves

3

01

2 1.8 1.8


MISO External Total

Date HE Deployment Type MW

4/4/2020 2 OFFLINE 334

4/4/2020 2 ONLINE 1244

4/30/2020 17 ONLINE 1022

4/30/2020 17 ONLINE 187

Transmission Service Request

Yearly Transmission Queue

Source: MISO Transmission Planning Department

Number of Long Term Transmission Service Requests

0 00

2

Mar-20 Apr-20

Completed Studies

> 60 0 - 60

4

0

2

5

8

2

14

7

Mar-20 Apr-20

# of Requests in Study> 195

30 - 195

< 30

10

7

11

87

14

68

11

23

11

14

79

10

3 3 34

0

8

14

18

28

1

11


TOTAL PROCESSED

69

4 new added

0 total processed

Current Month

Q


Generator Interconnection: OverviewThe current generator interconnection queue consists of 441 active projects totaling 68.1 GW

Notes:• The total active queue size is 441 projects and 68.1 GW

o 27 projects GIA’s completed in 2020o 62 projects have withdrawn in 2020

• DPP-2019-Cycle 1o 277 projects totaling 40,603 MW in DPP-2019-Cycle 1o 175 solar projects totaling 25,987 MWo 18 hybrid projects totaling 2,699 MWo 40 storage projects totaling 2,340 MW

• DPP-2020-Cycle 1: application deadline is now 6/25/2020

• Detailed queue cycle information can be found on the next page or MISO’s website

• For the latest information on the Interconnection Process Task Force (IPTF) – visit MISO’s website

Updated: 5/1/2020

70

https://www.misoenergy.org/planning/generator-interconnection/

https://www.misoenergy.org/stakeholder-engagement/committees/interconnection-process-task-force/

Generation Interconnection Queue: DashboardMISO is managing 10 ongoing queue cycles with 5 more set to start in the next 12 months


R

For the latest full schedule details and delay tracking information of DPP cycles, please visit MISO’s website: Generator Interconnection

RegionPrevious /

Current Indicator

CycleRequests / Size (MW)

Est. Comp. Date Comment

Central AreaMO, IL & IN

/

2017-Aug 25 / 4,130 5/15/2020

2017-Aug GIA’s in Progress2018-Apr in Phase 2

2018-Apr 38 / 7,694 5/10/2021

2019-Cycle 1 104 / 16,588 12/23/2021

2020-Cycle 1 TBD 8/5/2022

East (ATC) AreaWI & MI UP

/

2017-Aug 14 / 2,208 6/8/2020


2018-Apr 18 / 2,995 3/1/2021

2019-Cycle 1 18 / 1,761 10/12/2021

2020-Cycle 1 TBD 5/20/2022

East (ITC) AreaMI

/

2017-Aug 12 / 2,895 6/1/2020


2018-Apr 14 / 1,859 4/12/2021

2019-Cycle 1 38 / 4,800 11/22/2021

2020-Cycle 1 TBD 7/5/2022

South AreaTX, AR, LA & MS

/

2017-Aug 15 / 1,842 3/30/20202017-Aug GIA’s Complete

2018-Apr in Phase 32019-Cycle 1 in Phase 1

2018-Apr 12 / 1,681 11/27/2020

2019-Cycle 1 64 / 9,090 7/6/2021

2020-Cycle 1 TBD 2/11/2022

West AreaIA, WI, MN, ND, SD & MT

/

2016-Aug 12 / 2,002 3/1/2020

2016-Aug GIA’s Complete2017-Feb GIA’s Complete

2017-Aug in Phase 22018-Apr in Phase 2

2017-Feb 2 / 250 3/16/2020

2017-Aug 27 / 4,127 8/13/2021

2018-Apr 35 / 4,697 8/13/2021

2019-Cycle 1 53 / 8,279 9/27/2021

2020-Cycle 1 TBD 5/9/2022

Updated: 5/1/2020

Expected Phase Delay > 15%Phase delay < 15% Cycle Not Yet Started Updated values (italics)Cycle in GIA Phase/Complete(Bold)

71

https://www.misohttps/www.misoenergy.org/planning/generator-interconnection/GI_Queue/

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Ma

y-18

Jun-1

8

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct-

18

Nov-1

8

Dec-1

8

Jan-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Apr-

19

Ma

y-19

Jun-1

9

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct-

19

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-2

0

Apr-

20

Ge

ne

rati

no

Ca

pa

cit

y (

MW

)

Nu

mb

er

of

No

tice

s

Generator Suspension/Retirement (Attachment Y) Notices: ResolvedRetirement Capacity Suspension Capacity No of Notices

Generator Suspension/Retirement – New and Resolved

72

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ma

y-18

Jun-1

8

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct-

18

Nov-1

8

Dec-1

8

Jan-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Apr-

19

Ma

y-19

Jun-1

9

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct-

19

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-2

0

Apr-

20

Ge

ne

rati

on

Ca

pa

cit

y (

MW

)

Nu

mb

er

of

No

tice

s

Generator Suspension/Retirement (Attachment Y) Notices: NewRetirement Capacity Suspension Capacity No of Notices


73

1143

0 16

421

221

563

065

312

517

0 22

391

23 46

650

0

2010

674

0 0 0 0 00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jun-1

8

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct-

18

Nov-1

8

Dec-1

8

Jan-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Apr-

19

Ma

y-19

Jun-1

9

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct-

19

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-2

0

Apr-

20

Ma

y-20Re

tire

d/R

eti

rin

g G

en

era

tio

n C

ap

acit

y (

MW

)

Approved Generation Retirements by Month

Generator Suspension/Retirement – Overall


231

10 0

MISO SSR History (since 2005)

Att Y Notices without a

need for SSR

Agreement

SSR Agreements -

Terminated

SSR Agreements -

Active

4

22

1511

7

Start of Month Received Closed End of Month 2019 End of

Year

Settlements/Customer Relations

Client Relations Issues Tracking

Source: MISO Settlements and Client Relations Departments


Market Settlement Disputes S

781714

750

651

3163

Mar-20 Apr-20

TOTAL_SIEBEL_REQUESTS

SIEBEL_REQUESTS_CLOSED

SIEBEL_REQUEST_OPEN

74

(Data Compiled for: 04/02/2020 to 05/02/2020)

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


100.0 100.0 100.0 99.7


97.2 97.0 97.0 97.0


100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


0.00

1.08

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.72

0.38

1.04

1.00

1.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.49

0.08

0.76

0.56

0.03

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.15

ICCP

DART Notifications

DART Query and

Submit

MCS

Outage Scheduling

Automatic Reserve

Sharing

OASIS

Physical

Scheduling

Public Web Site

Apr-20 2020 YTD Avg 2019 Avg

Market/Operations IT Applications Availability

75

External System Availability

Day-Ahead RAC Posting – Daily 2000 EST

Settlement Statement Posting – Daily 1200 EST

On-Time Posting Compliance

Real-Time Market Posting – Every 5 MinutesU

Day-Ahead Market Posting – Daily 1500 ESTV

Source: MISO Market Operations Applications Department

A Guide to Understanding can be found under Stakeholder Center/Committees, Work Groups, and Task Forces/Informational Forum – Related Documents

https://www.midwestiso.org/_layouts/MISO/ECM/Redirect.aspx?ID=93278

Dashboard Metric Criteria (1 of 2)

*FTR YTD metric is applied beginning April

** Forecast errors observed in March, April, October and November will be measured by 1% lower thresholds76


Metric ChartCriteria


● Expected ◼ Monitor ▼Review ● Expected ◼ Monitor ▼Review

Percentage Price Deviation

A

Absolute DA-RT price difference divided by DA LMP <=23.6%

Absolute DA-RT price difference

divided by DA LMP is >23.6% but

<=27.9%

Absolute DA-RT price difference divided by DA LMP >27.9%

Real-TimeObligation fulfilled by Day-Ahead Supply at the Peak Hour

I >=95%>=93% but

<95%<93%

Monthly Average Gross VirtualProfitability

B

Within the standard deviation bands (threshold $0.82/MWh)

Outside the standard deviation bandsDay Ahead Wind Generation Forecast Error

K

# of days that the hourly average forecast error exceeds 10% <= 6

# of days that the forecast error exceeds 10% >6 or Forecast error exceeds 15% in = 3 days

# of days that the forecast error exceeds 10% >8 or Forecast error exceeds 15% in > 3 days or Forecast error resulted in declaring 1 Real Time Event

FTR Funding C

Monthly FTR Allocation % is >=92% and YTD FTR Allocation % is >=96%

Not in good statusAND Monthly FTR

Allocation % is >=87% AND Rolling

12-month FTR Allocation % is

>=93%

Not in Good AND not in Monitor

statusTie Line Error L <=1 >1 but <=3 >3

Market Efficiency Metric

D

Monthly Metric is >= 92% and Rolling 12-Month Metric is >= 94%

Not in Good Status AND Monthly

Metric is >= 87% and Rolling 12-

Month Metric is >= 92%

Not in Good AND Not in Monitor

Status

Control Performance –BAAL

MMonthly

performance score >=2

Monthly performance

score<2 but >=1

Monthly performance

score <1

RSG per MWh to Energy Price

E<=0.70%

>0.70% and <=0.87%

>0.87%

ControlPerformance –CPS1 and CPS1 12-month rolling

N >=100% <100%

Dashboard Metric Criteria (2 of 2)

*FTR YTD metric is applied beginning April

** Forecast errors observed in March, April, October and November will be measured by 1% lower thresholds77




● Expected ◼ Monitor ▼Review ● Expected ◼ Monitor ▼Review

Day Ahead Mid-Term Load Forecast**

F

# of days that forecast error exceeds 3% <=6 AND # days that forecast error exceeds 4% <=4


exceeds 3% > 6 OR # days that forecast

error exceeds 4%> 4 OR forecast error

exceeds 6% on >= 1 day


exceeds 3% > 10 OR # days that forecast error exceeds 4%> 8 OR forecast error exceeds 7% on >= 1

day OR Forecast error resulted in declaring 1 Real

Time Event

ARS Deployment

P

DCS monthlyaverage % recovery (APR) = 100%

Analysis of event not yet complete

DCS monthlyaverage % recovery (APR) confirmed <100%

Short-Term Load Forecast**

G

Forecast error exceeding the 95% percentile of forecast error for the past year <= 2 days

3 days <= Forecast error exceeding the

95% percentile of forecast error for the past year <= 5

days

Forecast error exceeding the 95%

percentile of forecast error for

the pas year > 5 days

Unit Commitment Efficiency

H

Monthly Metric >= 88% AND Rolling 12-Month Metric >= 90%

Not in Good Status AND 88% >

Monthly Metric >= 83% and 90% >

Rolling 12-Month Metric >= 88%

Not in Good AND Not in Monitor

Status

Customer Service

System ImpactStudy Performance

QStudies completed in less than 60 days

>=85%

Studies completed in less than 60 days

<85% but >=75%

Studies completed in less than 60 days

<75%

On-Time Real-Time Posting

U >=95%<95% but

>=92%<92%

SettlementDisputes

SIncrease of up to 20

disputesIncrease of between 20 and 50 disputes

Increase of more than 50 disputes

On-Time Day-Ahead Posting

V>=95% <95% but

>=92%<92%