Infrastructure Damage in ShakeOut (&ARkStorm)

RESIN seminar, UC Berkeley, 30 Sep 2009RESIN seminar, UC Berkeley, 30 Sep 2009

Keith Porter, Associate Research ProfessorKeith Porter, Associate Research ProfessorCivil, Environmental, and Architectural EngineeringCivil, Environmental, and Architectural EngineeringUniversity of Colorado at BoulderUniversity of Colorado at Boulder

Damage & social-science studiesEarth-science effects modeled by Earth-science effects modeled by

several SCEC experts, discussed several SCEC experts, discussed and revised after a large conferenceand revised after a large conference

Consequent damage assessed by 19 Consequent damage assessed by 19 study groups:study groups:

HAZUS study, replaced piecewise HAZUS study, replaced piecewise by research teams, expert panels, & by research teams, expert panels, & combinationscombinations

Informed by computer modelsInformed by computer models Grounded in historic evidenceGrounded in historic evidence Acknowledge need to extrapolate Acknowledge need to extrapolate

from past experience and limited from past experience and limited analysisanalysis

Economic analysis and emergency Economic analysis and emergency response outcomes by USC, OES, response outcomes by USC, OES, CU, and othersCU, and others

Earth sciences

Physical damage

Societal impacts

Infrastructure damageCloser look at

important lifelines

Telecommunications(ASCE TCLEE: Alex Tang)

Rail(ASCE TCLEE: Bill Byers)

Highways(Panel + REDARS Group)

Mass transit (Panel)

Ports of LA & Long Beach(CU Boulder + panel)

Water supply(Panel)

Wastewater(Panel)

Dams(Panel)

Surface streets(Panel)

Electric Power(Panel)

Oil and gas pipelines(MMI Engineering + panel)

Hospitals(ASCE TCLEE: Mark Pickett)

+ elevators, hazmat, and community impacts on Palm Springs, CA

Charge to researchers and panelists Panels included operators, maintenance personnel, PIOs, Panels included operators, maintenance personnel, PIOs, many of whom who many of whom who

were already engaged with Caltech & USGS. were already engaged with Caltech & USGS. Coordinating agencies little help.Coordinating agencies little help. Scope & duration of panels (3.5 hr) provided with the invitationScope & duration of panels (3.5 hr) provided with the invitation Researchers were top experts in their field, e.g., ScawthornResearchers were top experts in their field, e.g., Scawthorn

Acquire Acquire & accept & accept hazard informationhazard information Review findings of “upstream” lifelines (power, water, roads…)Review findings of “upstream” lifelines (power, water, roads…) Characterize assets at risk, past studies, past eventsCharacterize assets at risk, past studies, past events Interpret computer models, if available, but acknowledge differences in scale, Interpret computer models, if available, but acknowledge differences in scale,

interaction, and other issues of extrapolation etc. interaction, and other issues of extrapolation etc. Produce one realistic damage outcome, depiction of restoration (low stakes?). Produce one realistic damage outcome, depiction of restoration (low stakes?).

Depiction evolved during the discussion, sometimes accommodating political Depiction evolved during the discussion, sometimes accommodating political sensitivities. Spanned from granular to systemic damage & restoration: why & sensitivities. Spanned from granular to systemic damage & restoration: why & where would damage occur, how would restoration occur?where would damage occur, how would restoration occur?

Identify promising mitigation measures, research needs. (Carrot)Identify promising mitigation measures, research needs. (Carrot) Later, review studies by others, revisit findings (lifeline interaction)Later, review studies by others, revisit findings (lifeline interaction) Schedule: 3-6 monthsSchedule: 3-6 months

MMI, PGA, PGV, Sa(0.3), Sa(1.0), Sa(3.0) maps produced

Provided to damage estimation teams and panels: ground motion maps, showing realistic directionality effects (downtown LA, etc.) cannot by duplicated using traditional approaches.

Before physics-based modeling, loss < 1/3 of that modeled here

Scawthorn fire following earthquake study 1,600 ignitions requiring a fire engine1,600 ignitions requiring a fire engine 1,200 exceed capability of 11,200 exceed capability of 1stst engine engine Orange County & LA basin: dozens of large fires Orange County & LA basin: dozens of large fires

merge into conflagrations destroying 100s of merge into conflagrations destroying 100s of blocksblocks

200 million square feet burnt 200 million square feet burnt ≈ 133,000 single family dwellings ≈ 133,000 single family dwellings

Property loss: $65 billionProperty loss: $65 billion No Santa Ana winds, No Santa Ana winds, not worst casenot worst case Study vetted by top state and county fire officials Study vetted by top state and county fire officials

with relationships w Shakeout leaders & Scawthonwith relationships w Shakeout leaders & Scawthon

1989 Loma Prieta

1994 Northridge

Electric power study10 experts from 5 agencies find:10 experts from 5 agencies find:

Immediate loss of power throughout Immediate loss of power throughout regionregion

Collapse of some high-tension towers, Collapse of some high-tension towers, damage to transformers on overhead damage to transformers on overhead polespoles

Generating plants taken offline for Generating plants taken offline for inspectioninspection

Interesting feedback & revision occurredInteresting feedback & revision occurred Thinking through the scenario & Thinking through the scenario &

considering LL interaction led to mitigation considering LL interaction led to mitigation actionsactions

LA, Riverside, & San Bern. CountiesLA, Riverside, & San Bern. Counties:: 30-50% of service restored in 24 hrs30-50% of service restored in 24 hrs 75-90% restored in 3 days, ~100% in 1-4 75-90% restored in 3 days, ~100% in 1-4

mosmosVentura, Orange, & Imperial CountiesVentura, Orange, & Imperial Counties::

90% restored in 2 days90% restored in 2 daysKern & San Diego CountiesKern & San Diego Counties::

90% restored in 24 hr90% restored in 24 hr

Transmission lines & power plants

1971 San Fernando Earthquake

ARkStorm Scenario: same approach

Hazard infoHazard info Windspeed maps, floodmaps (depth & Windspeed maps, floodmaps (depth &

velocity; riverine and coastal), wave velocity; riverine and coastal), wave heights, etc. in KMZheights, etc. in KMZ

Damage assessments similar to ShakeOutDamage assessments similar to ShakeOut + Ag, offshore, coastal, environmental…+ Ag, offshore, coastal, environmental…

Vetting by review groups as appopriate Vetting by review groups as appopriate

Thanks

keith.porter@colorado.edukeith.porter@colorado.edu

(626) 233-9758(626) 233-9758