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©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP.This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Innovation: A key enabler? Or a distraction from Action?
Innovation and the path towards decarbonisationJo Coleman, Strategy Director
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Many different viewpoints in an uncertain worldSystems thinking and shared, robust evidence base is critical
System= power + heat + transport + infrastructures– Infrastructure base is aging and unfit for
future purpose– Optimisation and effective linkage cuts
costs, increases security and can increase consumer engagement
Policy– ‘Market decides’– EMR delivery identifies direction
• LCF capacity - Contracts for Difference, Capacity payments, Feed in Tariffs, etc
– Innovation support, Low Carbon Network fund, …
Decisions and Actions – in an uncertain world …–
– Focus on 6 priorities– Recognise risks, mitigations and
implications– Prepare for the future - with technology,
regulation, incentives
Strategic– 2050 decarbonisation targets– Security of supply (diversity of fuel
supply and power generation capacity margin)
– Consumer attitudes, needs and engagement
Common Evidence
base
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Decarbonisation pathway in the context of…
• Increasing demand to 2050– Population: 65 to 77 million– Vehicles: 28 to 35-43 million cars– Housing: 26 to 38 million houses, 90% of todays housing will remain in 2050
• Action to date– Beginning to decarbonise power sector– Increasing energy efficiency (especially in cars)
• UK energy system is a unique and complex set of interlinked assets and infrastructure– Ageing power plants need replacing– Significant wind (and marine) energy potential– Significant offshore CO2 storage potential– Significant opportunity for UK biomass – Reasonable public support for all low carbon options
– But, poor housing stock and very significant heating challenge
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Decarbonising heat is our biggest challengeH
eat /
Ele
ctric
ity (G
W)
0
50
100
150
250
200
Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10
HeatElectricity
Data source: Robert Sansom, Imperial (2011)
GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic
The gas grid is our biggest energy storage device
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
+132 GW heat demand in 1 hr
(0630-0730)
-121 GW heat demand in 1 hr(0830-0930)
291GW
8am 6pm
304GW
16 GW 67 GW
Saturday 18th Dec 2010
Hea
t Dem
and
(GW
)
Time of Day
Managing peaks & system flexibility
Reduce peaks
Time shift
Data source: Robert Sansom, Imperial (2011)
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
-80% target(nett)
A route to deliver 80% reduction in CO2Power now, heat next, transport gradual – cost optimal
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
transport is largest CO2 emitterbut chart masks significant
efficiency improvements
heat emissions (buildings) reducing as domestic gas boilers swap to electric or district heating, targeted deep efficiency improvements
CCS and bioenergy demos operating
negative emissions through bioenergy + CCS
Bio credits“negative emissions”
P
H
T
MT CO2
I
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Renewal - slow and steady…
2015 2030 20502040
Plan Build Operate 1Major power plant 40 year lifeDevelopment time 10-20 years
1 2 3Domestic boiler 15-20 year lifeDevelopment time 10+ years
1 2 3 4Car 10-12 year lifeDevelopment time 5-10 years
• Other major infrastructure similar to power assets, 40-100 year lives, planning phase can be 10-20+ years
• Lead-time for step-change in vehicle and boiler performance often driven by introduction of new standards and regulations – may take 10 years
Opportunities to introduce step-changes in technology or strategic direction are few
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
System change starts slow then accelerates
Buildings
Industry
TransportLiquid fuels
Gas
Coal
NOW
Elec
Liquid fuels
Gas
Nuclear
B
I
T
2030
Elec
Prim
ary
fuel
s in
Liquid fuels
Gas
B
I
T
2050 – Clockwork
NuclearElec Elec B
I
T
2050 – Patchwork
Gas
NucWind
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
The next decade is critical in preparing for transition
• The UK transition is affordable (~1% of GDP) and achievable, by developing, commercialising and integrating known - but currently underdeveloped –solutions
• We need to focus deployment on a basket of leading contender technologies – Efficiency of vehicles, efficiency and low carbon heat for buildings, Nuclear, CCS,
Bio, Offshore Wind, Gases (NG, H2, SNG…..)– Develop and prove options, prepare for widescale deployment
• There is enormous potential and value of CCS and bioenergy– The ability (or failure) to deploy these two technologies will have a huge impact on
the cost of achieving the climate change targets and the national architecture of low carbon systems and future infrastructure requirements
• To avoid wasting investment, crucial decisions must be made about the design of the future energy system, driven by choices on infrastructure
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Incr
emem
enta
l Inv
estm
ent
£bn/
year
Preparing over the next decade is a no regrets strategy
• Drive efficiency• Technology
development, demonstration and early deployment
• Plan supporting infrastructure
• Prove business models at scale
• Develop knowledge base for choices
• Build supply chains• Incorporate consumer
and social values• Establish democratic
legitimacy for decision making
• Finalise Plans• Build infrastructure• Manage transition• Develop 2nd gen
technologies
• Complete transition• Apply 2nd gen
technologies• Plan for post 2050
challenges
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
What role for innovation?
• Deploy ‘Known but underdeveloped’ technologies
• Drive down cost, increase performance and integrate into our energy system– Regulate (eg cars)– Market (eg wind turbines)– Target innovation interventions (eg floating wind)– Supply chain & delivery skills (eg heat solutions)
• Business models, policy mechanisms, consumer propositions and community engagement activities
• Silver bullets are rare and unpredictable
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Building a shared evidence base…
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
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