Innovationin Air Transportation Systems

National Training Aircraft SymposiumEmbry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Dr. Bruce J. Holmes, NextGen Sciences, LLC; Holmes Consulting LLCWilliamsburg Virginia

•March 2009March 2009

Stories

• The Story of Futures

• The Story of Life Cycles in Innovation

• The Story of Technology for Air Mobility

• The Story of NextGen

• The Beginning

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The Road Here

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The Story of Futures

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Your Future in Aviation

•Graduates will be mid-career in about 2030•Teach NextGen fundamentals in 2009 classes, labs, and in flight•Implement RNP procedures in practice areas, landing facilities now•A Performance-based NAS requires systemic change:

Academics Flight Training Airspace Managers Airport Managers Business Models Regulation and Certification Science, technology, engineering

•NextGen benefits: DOC/ROI Airspace Workloads Noise Carbon Time Fuel

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Electric Scrubbing

From Futuredays by Isaac AsimovCopyright 1986 by Lucy-Caroll Limited.

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An Aerial Battle

From Futuredays by Isaac Asimov Copyright 1986 by Lucy-Caroll Limited.

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A House Rolling Through the Countryside

From Futuredays by Isaac Asimov Copyright 1986 by Lucy-Caroll Limited.

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Heating with Radium

From Futuredays by Isaac Asimov Copyright 1986 by Lucy-Caroll Limited.

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Rules of the Game are Changing

Context

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Two Centuries of Historical Context forInnovation in Transportation Systems

Meta-forces in Transportation Demand

The Story of Life Cycles

Innovation and Cost Life Cycles(Trends follow classic “Waves” for innovations,

Hugh B. Stewart, Recollecting the Future, 1988)

The “Atomic Structure” of Business Innovation Cycles

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Time, Years

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Innovation Growth Maturity

Young, Urban, ProfessionalLeader Market

Middle-Class, Wage-EarnerFollower Market

Older, Rural, Lower-IncomeDie-Hard Market

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Cumulative Intercity TransitMarket GrowthDiverted & Induced

Cars Displace Trains

Propliners Displace Cars

Jetliners Displace Props

AlternativesAlternativesForFor

On-DemandOn-DemandPoint-to-PointPoint-to-PointAir MobilityAir Mobility

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Notional Life Cycles in Transportation

The Notional Life Cycleof The Innovation Called Airline Travel

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What’s Going On with Oil?What does the Big S-Curve look like?

Oil Reserve Discovery Cycles

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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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Oil Discovery Cycle, 1982-1993

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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

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Poly. (Series1)Oil Discover Cycle, 1960-1977

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Oil Discovery Cycle, 1950-1962

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The Case For Algae-Derived Fuels

•Carbon Cycle•Price Stability•Environmental Remediation

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• Successful ANZ Flight Demo Date: December 30 2008

Feedstock: Jatropha oil

Feedstock: Jatropha and algal oil

• Successful CO Flight Demo Date: Jan. 7 2009

Feedstock: Camelina, Jatropha and algal oil

• Successful JAL Flight Demo Date: Jan. 30 2009

Three Successful HRJ Biojet Flight Programs* (CAAFI)

* Graphics Complement J. Holmgren, UOP

Scheduled Air Service Contraction

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Based on data from the US Department of TransportationBureau of Transportation Statistics

The Story of Technologies

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Technological Underpinningsfor Mobility Alternatives

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Value of Networks as f(# of Nodes)2

(Metcalf’s Law)

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AGATE and The Bandwidth Revolutionin the Cockpit

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SATS and the Bandwidth Revolutionin the Airspace

• Multiple simultaneous operationswithout Control Towers, Radar, or ATC

• Safe near-all-weather operations without ILS

• Integrated,non-conflictingen-route operations

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The Airplanes

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The Story of NextGen

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Why NextGen?

• The current aviation system does not scale to meet future needs related to*

Aircraft Airports Airspace Commerce and Business models Environmental considerations Security and safety considerations

• Current airspace evolution and modernization plans do not lead us to the changes needed beyond 2015

• Transformation requires change across government agencies

• The results of transformation produce new business models, new regulatory models, and new uses of airspace, airports, and aircraft

• The outcome of transformation is to enable scalability to meet the nation’s needs in commerce, mobility, security , and safety

*From NRC Report (2003) and the President’s Commission Final Report (2002)

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Anticipated Growth in Airport Congestion

U.S. Joint Planning and Development Office

2025

Implementation Domains in FloridaNational NextGen Test Bed

•Tertiary (DayStop) Solutions Eliminate procedural separation

for increased access and capacity at smaller community airports for economic benefits

•Secondary (DayPort) Solutions Design routes for most

efficient altitudes, shortest routes and passing capabilities for reduced fuel and carbon

•Metroplex Solutions De-couple departures and

arrivals at hubs and small airports for increased capacity and road congestion relief

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Airborne InfrastructureEnabling Capabilities

NextGen Avionics• Performance-Based Navigation• ADS-B Out / In• Graphical Traffic• Graphical Weather• Graphical Terrain• Electronic Flight Bag• Iridium Comm• Communication via IP• FOQA-MOQA• Machine vision

… and more in the future 35

Airports and Airspace InfrastructureEnabling Capabilities

NextGen Airports and Airspace

• State Aviation System & Airport Master Planning for NextGen

• Tailored flight paths• ADS-B everywhere• Precision minimums• RVR• Remote Tower Services• DataComm linkage• SWIM integration

… and more in the future

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Reference Business Trajectory

CTA - Contracted Time of Arrival

RBT (Flight Plan) is a continuous RNAV/RNP trajectoryrepresenting best DOC/Fuel Burn/ROIfor company fleet operations

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Real-TimeTrajectory Management

Air Traffic OpsFAA Traffic and Flow Management Tools

Routing ManagerFleet Optimization Tool

IP Fleet Communication*Fleet Tracking

Aircraft/FleetADS-B

EFB or FMSIP Communications*

5. RBTAS CLEARED

3. RBTAS AUTHORIZED

6. TrajectoryAS FLOWNVia ADS-B

4. ClearanceRequest

1. (Flight Plan)Reference Business Trajectory

RBT AS FILED*

2. RBTAS AUTHORIZED

* For example via AOC,Iridium+AMS-UpTime, orAirCell, etc.

Location of trajectory calculations may be initially ground-based, with longer-term potential for migration to distributed locations (e.g. cloud computing)

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Outcomes“Fully cooperative NextGen solutions” (FAA-MOA)

1. Safety and Workload Benefits2. Shorter Routes3. Quieter Terminal Procedures4. Reduced Fuel Consumption5. Reduced Emissions6. Optimized Fleet Performance7. Accurate, Rapid Flight Planning8. Decoupled Metroplex Airports, Increased Capacities9. NextGen educational curriculum10. Business Cases (Federal, Industrial, State, Local)

These outcomes provide a templatefor accelerated national implementationof performance-based airspace systems.

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Recommended Reading

• Christiansen, Clayton: The Innovators Dilemma, HBS Press

• Theodore Modis: Conquering Uncertainty• Barabasi, Laszlo: Linked• Anderson, Chris: The Long Tail• Schwartz, John: BoomTown• Schaeffer and Victor: Transportation

Demand Trends. Sci. Amer. Oct 1997special issue on transportation

• Kurzweil, Ray: 2029, The Singularity• George Gilder: Telecosm• Nassim Taleb: Black Swan

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The Path From Here

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From 20th Century Wheels on AmericaFrom 20th Century Wheels on Americato 21st Century Wings on Americato 21st Century Wings on America

Thank You!Thank You!