Inside China: Understanding China’s Current and Future ...€¦ · Automotive Futures Current Research Programs • Powertrains • 2016-2017 Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st

Inside China: Understanding China’s Current and Future Automotive Industry

“Focus on the Future” UM Automotive Research Conferences

WELCOME!

Bruce M. Belzowski University of Michigan

Transportation Research Institute Managing Director-Automotive Futures

[email protected]

Automotive Futures University of Michigan

Transportation Research Institute

–Globalization –Powertrains –IT

Funding

Affiliate Program

Research

Conferences

– 5 Annual Conferences

–Supporting Members

–Research Partners

Automotive Futures Affiliate Program

Affiliate Members

Argonne National Labs BorgWarner Inc.

Bosch Corporation Denso Corporation

FCA LLC Ford Motor Company

ITS America Oracle Corporation

UAW-Ford Valeo North America, LLC

Automotive Futures Research Partners

Research Partners IT Organizations HP IBM Oracle Corporation Siemens-PLM OEMs FCA LLC Ford Motor Company General Motors Nissan Tech Center Toyota Tech Center

Government/NGOs Argonne National Labs CALSTART CARB Energy Foundation Federal Motor Carrier The Hewlett Foundation ICCT NRDC Michigan DOT NREL NSF

Government/NGOs Union of Concerned Scientists US Army-TARDEC US DOT US EPA US DOE

Automotive Futures Research Partners

Research Partners Suppliers BASF BorgWarner Bosch Chevron Continental Denso Dana Delphi Dow Eaton JATCO

Suppliers JCI Lear Magna Means Michelin Peterson Spring TRW Yazaki Visteon Valeo

Consultants AT Kearney AVL FEV McKinsey Ricardo Roland Berger

Automotive Futures Current Research Programs

• Globalization • GERPISA Automotive Research Network • Shifting Strategies: The Big Three in ASEAN • Establishing Production in North America: Challenges for Overseas

Assemblers and Suppliers and Implications for the Domestic Automotive Industry

• Workforce Planning for a Global Automotive Economy • Inside China and Inside India reports • Inside China conferences for 8 years • Inside India, Brazil, Russia, Japan conferences


• Powertrains • 2016-2017 Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century Survey

• 1st Mailing at the end of October in collaboration with SAE • 2014-2015 Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century Survey (Sponsor:

Affiliates) • Survey results distributed to Affiliates

• Total Cost of Ownership: Comparing Diesel and Gas Vehicles (Bosch)

• Based on resale value of 30K vehicles sold through Mannheim auctions in 2012 / 2013

• Report available


• ITS • Stuck in Traffic: Analyzing Real Time Traffic Capabilities of Personal

Navigation Devices and Traffic Phone Applications • Final report available

• Integrated Mobile Observations: Micro-level weather reporting using cell

phones in MDOT vehicles (Sponsor: MDOT and FHWA) • Report available


• ITS • Roadway Evaluation Project: Measuring road roughness via

accelerometers in cell phones mounted in MDOT vehicles • Final report available

• Deploying Safety Technologies in Commercial Vehicles

• Familiarity and penetration currently and in the future of: Forward Collision Warning / Lane Departure Warning / Blind Spot Detection / ESC / Vehicle Communications

• Final report available (Sponsor: ITS America)

Upcoming UMTRI-AF Conferences

• February 15, 2017: New Mobility Conference. Our 3rd annual New Mobility conference in

collaboration with UM-SMART will investigate new modes of transport that support sustainability as well as transport.

• April 12, 2017: In Celebration of UM’s 200th Anniversary: UMTRI-AF and the UM Japan Center will put on the conference that examines the past, present, and future relationship of the Japanese auto industry to the US and the UM.

• July 19, 2017: Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: Our 9th annual conference that focuses on major issues related to the future powertrains. This conference is also the place to see the results of our annual Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century expert survey that estimates powertrain technology penetration for 2020 and 2025.

Conference Presenters/Schedule

9:00am Bruce Belzowski, Managing Director, Automotive Futures, UM

Transportation Research Institute

• Mike Jackson, Director of Vehicle Forecasting, IHS

• John Jullens, Principal, PWC Strategy Consulting Group

• Baovin Xie, VP, Product Development, Beijing Automotive Technology Center, Beijing Motor Corporation Ltd.

Break (20 minutes)

Conference Presenters/Schedule

• Sergio Muniz, UMTRI AF Visiting Researcher (from Federal Technological

University of Paraná, Brazil)

• Ming Xu, UM Associate Professor in School of Natural Resources and Environment and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

• Steven Golden, Chief Technology Officer and VP Business Development at Clean Diesel Technologies (CDTi)

• Conference Q&A

1:30pm Lunch

2:30pm Adjourn

Conference Questions

• How have the different Chinese manufacturers, independent and joint venture, fared over the last couple of years?

• What are some of the different independent manufacturer product strategies?

• What are the forecasts for the industry and the individual manufacturers over the next 5-10 years?

• What are some of the structural and economic changes taking place in the Chinese auto industry?


• What are some of the major government initiatives that will affect China’s auto industry in the near term?

• How do Chinese manufacturers view the next generation of vehicles in development?

• How do Chinese joint venture manufacturers manage their independent brand along side their joint venture brand?

• What companies are leading in selling electric vehicles?


• What are some of the platform decisions companies are making with their electric vehicles?

• What are the environmental implications for electric vehicles in China?

• What infrastructure changes are taking place related to charging stations for electric vehicles?

• How are Chinese emissions policies driving changes in the industry?

Post Conference Mailing

Attendees: • Link to presentations

Affiliates: • Link to presentations • Link to summary document of the conference

China Total Sales of New Vehicles

5,758,189 7,215,972

8,791,528 9,380,502

13,644,794

18,061,936 18,505,114 19,306,435

21,984,079 23,499,001

24,597,583

0.00

5,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

15,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

25,000,000.00

30,000,000.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: OICA Sale Statistics

Total China Passenger Car and Light Truck Vehicle Production

18,061,900 18,505,100 19,306,400

21,984,100 23,491,893

24,503,326

0.00

5,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

15,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

25,000,000.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: 2016 Ward’s Automotive Yearbook

2015 Top Ten Vehicle Production

Source: 2016 Ward’s Automotive Yearbook

2,005,248 1,803,584

1,728,919 1,636,834

1,287,145

1,052,000 1,018,812

880,542 869,592 787,700

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

Shanghai GMWuling

Shanghai VW Shanghai GM FAWVolkswagen

Chang'an(Own Brand)

BeijingHyundai

DongfengNissan

Chang'anFord

Great Wall Dongfeng(Own Brand)

Num

ber o

f Sal

es

2014 to 2015 Comparison of Top Ten Vehicle Production


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2015

2014

Chinese Auto Companies

• Joint venture companies: state-owned enterprises that manufacture vehicles with foreign companies but also design and manufacture their own brands. Many companies have multiple joint ventures with different foreign automakers.

• Independent companies: may have some provincial and state support but are primarily independent companies with their own brands

2015 Top Joint Venture Production

3,734,167 3,440,418

1,685,246

1,050,540 1,007,343 961,400 880,542

261,865 153,298 120,307 105,835 56,366 40,056 0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

GM VW & Audi Hyundai &Kia

Nissan Toyota Honda Ford Mercedes Mazda Suzuki BMW Mitsubishi FiatChrysler


2014 to 2015 Comparison of Top Joint Venture Production

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

GM VW &Audi

Hyundai &Kia

Nissan Toyota Honda Ford Mercedes Mazda Suzuki BMW Mitsubishi FiatChrysler

2015

2014


2015 Chinese Own Brands Production (Not including Joint Ventures)


1,287,145

787,700 699,172

312,899

189,355 119,669

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Chang'an Dongfeng Beijing AIC FAW Guangzhou AC Shanghai AIC

2014 to 2015 Comparison of Chinese Own Brands Production (Not including Joint Ventures)


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000


20152014

2015 Top Chinese Independent Manufacturer Production (Non-Joint Venture Companies)

869,592

557,005 534,656 511,711

446,885

313,349

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Great Wall Geely Jianghuai Chery BYD JMC


2014 Top Chinese Independent Manufacturer Production (Non-Joint Venture Companies)

311,985 247,617 240,399

212,926 166,851

112,408 96,758

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Foton Jinbei Lifan Zotye Nanjing Haima Zhengzhou Changhe


2014 to 2015 Comparison of Top Chinese Independent Manufacturer Production

(Non-Joint Venture Companies)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

Great Wall Geely Jianghuai Chery BYD JMC

2015

2014


2014 to 2015 Comparison of Top Chinese Independent Manufacturer Production

(Non-Joint Venture Companies)


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Foton Jinbei Lifan Zotye Nanjing Haima Zhengzhou Changhe

2015

2014

2015 Number of Models by Company (Chinese Own Brands Not Including Joint Ventures)

Source: ChinaAutoWeb

19

10

15

21

8

18 19

28

23

12

18

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Sedans, Hatchbacks

SUVs, MPVs,Microvans, Pickups

2015 Number of Models by Company (Independent Companies)

Source: ChinaAutoWeb

8

34

11

27

16

0 0

19

8 10

20

9 6

11

05

10152025303540

Great Wall Geely Jianghuai Chery BYD JMC Foton

Sedans, Hatchbacks

SUVs, MPV's,Microvans, Pickups

2015 Production By Company (Chinese Own Brands Not Including Joint Ventures)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000


Passenger Cars Light Trucks Medium/Heavy Trucks BusesSource: 2016 Ward’s Automotive Yearbook

2015 Production By Company (Independent Companies)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Great Wall Geely Jianghuai Chery BYD JMC FotonPassenger Cars Light Trucks Medium/Heavy Trucks Buses


Inside China: Understanding China’s Current and Future Automotive Industry

“Focus on the Future” UM Automotive Research Conferences

WELCOME!

The Link to Presentations Will Be Emailed This Weekend

Documents

Inside China: Understanding China’s Current and Future ...€¦ · Automotive Futures Current Research Programs • Powertrains • 2016-2017 Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st