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Presentation
by
Wg Cdr Ajey LeleResearch Fellow
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES
NEW DELHI, NOV 13, 2007
“…21st Century Space Industry is driven
more by faith than by profit…”Economist June 2004
Space Industry and
Promising Technologies
ScopeScope
“A macro view of current and perceivable future of Space Industry and suggest that independent industry players should attempt to invest into Transformational Technologies”
Here technology validation is not attempted.
StructureStructure
• What industry is doing and Futuristic trends
• Space Industry should look for innovative technological options
• Near-Space Technology could be one of them
• Industry need to invest in other beneficiary technologies
Journey of 50 yearsJourney of 50 years…• Phase I (57-75): Robotic & human exploration of
space, Skylab & Apollo missions
• Phase II (76-02): Astronomy, Navigation, Telecommunication, Star Wars…
• Phase III (07-..): ISS, again Moon…then Mars but commercial angle is to increase multifold
…the forecast isnext 50 years are going to be
historic
What private space industries should invest in?
Business CategoriesBusiness Categories…• Telecommunication
• Commercial space launch facilities
• Commercial satellite imagery
• Commercial satellite positioning
• Space Tourism
Key TrendsKey Trends…. • Dramatic growth over past decade
• Major business associated with satellite services
• Bulk revenue- telecommunication sector
• During the 1990s, the commercial space industry flourished
• Recent disasters, cost overruns, and post-9/11 security measures have increased military ties to civilian space programmes
Where Where ““Space WorldSpace World”” is goingis going…• Navigation is a thrust area
• Moon missions- Japan, China
• Moon landing and manned moon missions
• Mars is very much on the plate
• Space assets offer asymmetric advantages to the militaries
• ASAT
Major Futuristic TrendsMajor Futuristic Trends…
EMM Economy Space Tourism Military Utility
EE--MM--M EconomyM Economy
• 21st century aim is to go to moon to stay
• Helium 3 could be the main attraction
• To develop EMM economy there is a need to create the LEO anchorage and industrial port element
• Moon could be outsourced and Mars could become state aim
Space Tourism IndustrySpace Tourism Industry• This idea was a joke in 1990s
• Today, more than 100 people are ready to pay $ 20 million price tag for space trip
• By 2030-5 to 10 million passengers/year may visit LEO
• 50,000 to 100,000 people staying in ‘Orbit hotels’
Military RequirementMilitary Requirement
• Navigation, communication, reconnaissance…needs are going to increase
• Ever-changing threat scenario will put additional demands on space assets
• ‘Militarization’ of Space is a reality
States likely to back investment-intensive commercial space projects
So how do self & investor fundedself & investor fundedinnovators compete against
government subsidized systems?
Should they concentrate on LEO sector Should they concentrate on LEO sector and also look for economical and and also look for economical and innovative solutions?innovative solutions?
Could Transformational Technologies offer an alternative?
• Near-Space technology
• Nano-technology
What is “Near-Space” ?
Space/Outer SpaceSpace/Outer Space
• Altitude of 100km is boundary between atmosphere and space
• Touch an altitude of 80km and you qualify as an astronaut
NearNear--Space/FarSpace/Far--airair
• An area between 75,000feet (23km) agl and 62.5 miles (100km)
• Few stretch the upper limit to even 200/300km
• Ideally outer limit should be just below an envelop where satellites remain safe in orbit
Types of NearTypes of Near--Space PlatformsSpace Platforms
• Balloons/Free floaters
• Blimps (non-rigid airships)
• Zeppelins (rigid airships)/Dirigibles
• Composite Hull High Altitude Powered Platform (CHHAPP)
• Stratellite
A Prototype A Prototype StratelliteStratellite
AdvantagesAdvantages• Offers cheaper and quicker access to space like
conditions
• Offer inexpensive solutions to communications over specific regions
• Crafts fly above the weather
• Vulnerability to enemy fire is not a big concern
Commercial UsageCommercial Usage• Oil and gas producers in west Texas and Oklahoma
use them for the purposes of collection and transmission of information
• The basic use is as an alternative to cellular network
• Offers most economical bandwidth
Technology StatusTechnology Status• Amateurs
• The US Air Force (USAF)
• Johns Hopkins University doing research
• Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)
Industry InvestmentsIndustry Investments
• Lockheed Martin- $150 million contract
• Space Data Corp-Combat SkySat
• StartXX Holding AG-developing stratospheric platforms
Future scopeFuture scope….• USAF Planning to augment GPS assets with
Near-Space (Nav sector business)
• Research is on to develop a craft capable of carrying 1000 tons of load
• Near-space bay could be established
Technology Relevance for MilitaryTechnology Relevance for Military
• Launch on demand possibility exists
• Stay & Stare persistence for C4ISR
• Proximity to war fighter, survivability, flexibility
• Great utility for operational or tactical commanders
LimitationsLimitations• Still an evolving technology-technical
challenges are not completely known
• Ultraviolet radiations/ ozone/ Jet Streams could be a problem
• Lack of ability to recharge air vehicles power source
• Violation of international space laws???
Space Space VsVs NearNear--SpaceSpace
• Satellites-Footprint-Age-Overflight
• Near-crafts-Cost-Persistence-Responsiveness -Footprint-Resolution
NanoNano--TechnologyTechnology
Expected to revolutionalise space industry
Private Industry should do timely investments…
Usage of NTUsage of NT• Satellites use thruster rockets to maintain
their orbits
• Nano-materials, such as nanocrsytallinetungsten-titanium diboride-copper composite, are potential candidates for enhancing these ignitors’ life and performance characteristics
Uses of NTUses of NT Contd
• Space vehicles need high performance, multifunctional materials
• It should sustain high or low temperature and high or low pressure
• Nano-particles in polymer composites have an edge being better radiation protectors
Uses of NTUses of NT Contd
• Space scientists are trying to adopt nano-materials as alternative materials to the conventional materials
• Lighter nano-porous materials like aerogels
Uses of NTUses of NT Contd
• In outer space primarily solar power is used as a power source for various activities
• Need to reduce the weight of such solar cells at the same time increase their efficiency
• Luminescent dye sensitized nano-particle based solar cell arrays could become an option
Supersonic Combustion RamjetSupersonic Combustion Ramjet
• Getting into space is very expensive
• Future business lies into affordable space transportation
• Innovative ideas ranging from scramjetpropulsion to space elevators, but some of those ... are very far in the future
• Scramjet shows a promise
ScramjetScramjet• The oxygen needed by the engine to combust is
taken from the atmosphere passing through the vehicle, instead of from a tank onboard
• The craft becomes smaller, lighter and faster
• Speeds till Mach 10 are achieved
Space TransportationSpace Transportation• Space transportation systems use the conventional
chemical rocket systems for their propulsion
• Cost per Kg of payload is $12 to 15,000
• The cost needs to come down to $ 500 to 1000/Kg
• Scramjet could be an option
• Space applications yet to be clearly identified-Space launch vehicles may benefit from having a scramjet stage
Platform
Total System
Rocket Science
Near-Space
Nano Scramjet
ConclusionConclusion• Billions of dollars investment is required for
conventional satellite technology
• Only few states and their space industries are having monopoly
• Success in near-space technology could make the technology available to wider community
• Space Industry need to look at various innovative options