8
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Consumer & Retail sector Tailwinds dissipating INDIA | FMCG | Q2FY19 Results Preview Consumer sector’s revenue growth to decelerate on sequential basis because of 1) an unfavourable base – consumer companies had resorted to re-stocking after GST implementation on 1 st July 2017 2) shifting of the festive season to 3QFY19 3) CSD channel (5-7% of sector revenue) introducing new curbs 4) Kerala floods in August 2018 5) transporter strike in July 2018; and 6) below-normal monsoon (9% deficit). However, we expect retail companies (Jubilant / Titan) to see strong growth vs. staples companies as the larger theme of formalization remains intact. Sector to see 11.6%/14.0%/13.1% sales/EBITDA/PAT growth (aggregate) in 2Q. EBITDA margin expansion (c.50 bps yoy) is likely to moderate Because of: (1) inflationary pressure in key commodities on MSP hikes, currency depreciation, and spiralling crude prices, (2) higher freight costs, (3) anniversary of GST-related savings, (4) negative operating leverage due to subdued volume growth, and (5) most of the companies deferring price hikes after the festival season to mitigate inflationary pressure. Our top picks / avoid recommendations are based on net income for 2QFY19 and valuations: Top picks: Jubilant (59%), GSK Consumer (27%), Titan (25%) Nestle (23%), ITC (12%) Avoid: Emami (-27%), Asian Paints (5%) and Britannia (8%) Key themes Rural growth outpacing urban growth: Our channel checks suggest that underlying consumer demand remains intact and that rural demand will be ahead of urban in the coming quarters based on announcement of higher MSP (1.5x of production costs), near normal monsoon (except for east India), higher fiscal spending ahead of state / central government elections and, consumer companies increasing direct distribution reach to capture the above trend. CSD channel facing another round of checks : Our recent interaction with companies suggest that although the wholesale channel (30-35% of industry revenue) has stabilised, CSD is seeing disruption due to inventory rationalization and biometrics of respective civil servants being linked with their monthly off-takes. Retail companies – on a strong wicket : We expect jewellers (Titan, Thangamayil) to report healthy growth due to a favourable base because of reversal of PMLA regulation and slowdown in July 2017 (a lot of pre-buying took place ahead of GST implementation in 1QFY18 when GST rate increased to 3%). Jubilant Foodworks should see 16% SSS growth on a cut in GST rate to 5% from 18%, traction on EDV offers, and online food aggregators expanding their operations. Kerala floods, transporter strike – one-off macro events: Since these events are non-recurring, their impact will not last beyond 2QFY19. We expect GSK Consumer / Britannia to be dented to some extent in 2Q respectively due to high southern region exposure / transporter strike (policy of keeping lean inventory). International business on a recovery path: We believe international business (particularly MENA region) for mid-cap companies is seeing improvement due to a favourable base and surge in crude oil prices (up 59% yoy). Raw material prices have started inching upwards: We believe this was probably the last quarter in which most consumer companies enjoyed benefits of benign input cost and low-cost inventory. We expect most (except Marico and GSK Consumer) to face raw-material headwinds in 2HFY19 as agri- / crude-related derivatives are in an upward spiral. We see companies hiking prices after the festival season in order to mitigate inflationary pressure. 1 October 2018 Vishal Gutka (+ 9122 6246 4118) [email protected] Preeyam Tolia (+ 9122 6246 4129) [email protected]

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Page 1: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Consumer & Retail sectorbackoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Research... · disruption due to inventory rationalization and biometrics of respective

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Consumer & Retail sector

Tailwinds dissipating INDIA | FMCG | Q2FY19 Results Preview Consumer sector’s revenue growth to decelerate on sequential basis because of 1) an

unfavourable base – consumer companies had resorted to re-stocking after GST

implementation on 1st July 2017 2) shifting of the festive season to 3QFY19 3) CSD channel

(5-7% of sector revenue) introducing new curbs 4) Kerala floods in August 2018 5)

transporter strike in July 2018; and 6) below-normal monsoon (9% deficit).

However, we expect retail companies (Jubilant / Titan) to see strong growth vs. staples

companies as the larger theme of formalization remains intact.

Sector to see 11.6%/14.0%/13.1% sales/EBITDA/PAT growth (aggregate) in 2Q.

EBITDA margin expansion (c.50 bps yoy) is likely to moderate

Because of: (1) inflationary pressure in key commodities on MSP hikes, currency

depreciation, and spiralling crude prices, (2) higher freight costs, (3) anniversary of

GST-related savings, (4) negative operating leverage due to subdued volume

growth, and (5) most of the companies deferring price hikes after the festival

season to mitigate inflationary pressure.

Our top picks / avoid recommendations are based on net income for 2QFY19 and valuations:

Top picks: Jubilant (59%), GSK Consumer (27%), Titan (25%) Nestle (23%), ITC (12%)

Avoid: Emami (-27%), Asian Paints (5%) and Britannia (8%)

Key themes

Rural growth outpacing urban growth: Our channel checks suggest that underlying consumer

demand remains intact and that rural demand will be ahead of urban in the coming quarters

based on announcement of higher MSP (1.5x of production costs), near normal monsoon (except

for east India), higher fiscal spending ahead of state / central government elections and,

consumer companies increasing direct distribution reach to capture the above trend.

CSD channel facing another round of checks : Our recent interaction with companies suggest

that although the wholesale channel (30-35% of industry revenue) has stabilised, CSD is seeing

disruption due to inventory rationalization and biometrics of respective civil servants being linked

with their monthly off-takes.

Retail companies – on a strong wicket : We expect jewellers (Titan, Thangamayil) to report

healthy growth due to a favourable base because of reversal of PMLA regulation and slowdown

in July 2017 (a lot of pre-buying took place ahead of GST implementation in 1QFY18 when GST

rate increased to 3%). Jubilant Foodworks should see 16% SSS growth on a cut in GST rate to 5%

from 18%, traction on EDV offers, and online food aggregators expanding their operations.

Kerala floods, transporter strike – one-off macro events: Since these events are non-recurring,

their impact will not last beyond 2QFY19. We expect GSK Consumer / Britannia to be dented to

some extent in 2Q respectively due to high southern region exposure / transporter strike (policy

of keeping lean inventory).

International business on a recovery path: We believe international business (particularly MENA

region) for mid-cap companies is seeing improvement due to a favourable base and surge in

crude oil prices (up 59% yoy).

Raw material prices have started inching upwards: We believe this was probably the last quarter

in which most consumer companies enjoyed benefits of benign input cost and low-cost

inventory. We expect most (except Marico and GSK Consumer) to face raw-material headwinds in

2HFY19 as agri- / crude-related derivatives are in an upward spiral. We see companies hiking

prices after the festival season in order to mitigate inflationary pressure.

1 October 2018

Vishal Gutka (+ 9122 6246 4118) [email protected] Preeyam Tolia (+ 9122 6246 4129) [email protected]

Page 2: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Consumer & Retail sectorbackoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Research... · disruption due to inventory rationalization and biometrics of respective

Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

FMCG Q2FY19 RESULTS PREVIEW

Quarterly snap shot

____________Q2FY19E____________ ____________Q2FY18____________ _________yoy change (%)_________

(Rs mn) Revenue EBITDA PAT Revenue EBITDA PAT Revenue EBITDA PAT

Large caps

ITC 110,430 42,577 29,427 102,264 37,615 26,398 8.0% 13.2% 11.5%

HUL 92,534 19,888 14,327 81,990 16,820 12,360 12.9% 18.2% 15.9%

Asian Paints 47,463 8,430 5,338 42,652 8,011 5,084 11.3% 5.2% 5.0%

Total 250,427 70,894 49,092 226,906 62,446 43,843 10.4% 13.5% 12.0%

Mid caps

Colgate 11,676 3,326 1,967 10,849 3,006 1,776 7.6% 10.6% 10.8%

Marico 18,429 3,016 2,157 15,363 2,591 1,814 20.0% 16.4% 18.9%

Emami 6,371 1,798 714 6,281 2,013 987 1.4% -10.7% -27.6%

Dabur 21,760 4,689 3,688 19,589 4,199 3,627 11.1% 11.7% 1.7%

GCPL 27,997 6,284 4,341 24,969 5,427 3,664 12.1% 15.8% 18.5%

Total 86,232 19,112 12,868 77,052 17,236 11,867 11.9% 10.9% 8.4%

Food’s companies

Nestle 27,878 6,916 4,240 25,010 5,911 3,435 11.5% 17.0% 23.4%

GSK consumer 12,391 3,094 2,441 11,153 2,614 1,924 11.1% 18.4% 26.9%

Britannia 27,559 4,104 2,818 25,365 3,777 2,611 8.7% 8.7% 8.0%

Total 67,828 14,115 9,499 61,529 12,301 7,970 10.2% 14.7% 19.2%

Retail

Titan 40,831 5,470 3,811 34,023 4,444 3,061 20.0% 23.1% 24.5%

Jubilant Foods 8,490 1,468 770 7,266 1,022 485 16.8% 43.6% 58.9%

Thangamayil 3,450 187 76 2,738 123 41 26.0% 51.9% 85.2%

Total 52,771 7,125 4,657 44,027 5,589 3,587 19.9% 27.5% 29.8%

Small caps

Bajaj Corp 2,224 665 542 2,037 583 507 9.2% 14.0% 6.9%

Agro Tech Foods 2,077 146 69 2,058 148 67 0.9% -1.9% 3.2%

Parag Milk 5,533 585 278 4,949 497 231 11.8% 17.8% 20.4%

Total 9,834 1,396 890 9,044 1,229 805 8.7% 13.6% 10.5%

Total Consumer & Retail 467,093 112,642 77,005 418,558 98,801 68,072 11.6% 14.0% 13.1%

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

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Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

FMCG Q2FY19 RESULTS PREVIEW

Commodity snap shot

Commodities Base Unit INR Unit Q2FY19 Q2FY18 yoy (%) Q1FY19 qoq (%)

HPC

LAB INR INR 112 94 19.1% 109 2.7%

Soda Ash INR/50kg INR/50kg 1,307 1,258 3.8% 1,235 5.8%

PFAD USD/mt INR/mt 34,009 40,070 -15.1% 35,178 -3.3%

Copra INR/qt INR/qt 10,830 9,711 11.5% 11,416 -5.1%

Mentha oil INR/kg INR/kg 1,800 1,198 50.3% 1,365 31.9%

Corn (Sorbitol) USD/bu INR/bu 24,772 23,105 7.2% 25,704 -3.6%

Palm oil (India) INR INR 606 510 18.8% 646 -6.1%

Food & Beverages

Barley INR/qt INR/qt 1,610 1,436 12.1% 1,440 11.7%

Maize USD/bu INR/bu 24,772 23,105 7.2% 25,704 -3.6%

Cocoa USD/mt INR/mt 159,976 131,455 21.7% 176,486 -9.4%

Soyabean Oil INR/10 kg INR/10 kg 748 647 15.6% 755 -1.0%

Coffee Robusta USD/mt INR/mt 115,449 134,721 -14.3% 116,248 -0.7%

Coffee Arabica USD/lb INR/lb 7,264 8,503 -14.6% 7,850 -7.5%

Skimmed Milk Powder EUR/mt INR/mt 129,004 129,874 -0.7% 116,940 10.3%

Wheat INR/qt INR/qt 1,966 1,768 11.2% 1,763 11.5%

Milk Powder INR/ltr INR/ltr 33 38 -14.9% 34 -5.2%

Gur & Sugar INR/qt INR/qt 3,560 5,060 -29.6% 3,185 11.8%

Sunflower INR/10kg INR/10kg 792 648 22.2% 747 6.2%

Safflower INR/10kg INR/10kg 1,271 1,279 -0.7% 1,306 -2.7%

Rice Bran INR/10kg INR/10kg 690 578 19.3% 656 5.2%

Packing materials

HDPE INR INR 104 85 22.7% 100 4.6%

PP INR INR 102 84 20.5% 99 2.2%

LLP INR INR 48 39 24.5% 47 1.8%

Other data

TiO2 INR/kg INR/kg 264 250 5.6% 258 2.3%

Vinyl Acetate Monomor USD/mt INR/mt 598,351 435,615 37.4% 555,840 7.6%

Brent Crude USD/bbl INR/bbl 5,322 3,349 58.9% 5,019 6.0%

WTI Crude USD/bbl INR/bbl 4,880 3,093 57.8% 4,546 7.3%

Gold spot (MCX) INR/10g INR/10g 30,052 28,985 3.7% 30,912 -2.8%

Gold USD/ounce INR/ounce 85,024 82,212 3.4% 87,535 -2.9%

Diamond USD/carat INR/carat 8,414 7,464 12.7% 8,012 5.0%

Currency

USD INR INR – US Dollar

70.1 64.3 9.1% 67.0 4.7%

EUR INR INR - Euro

81.5 75.5 7.9% 79.9 2.0%

CNY INR INR - China Yuan

10.3 9.6 6.9% 10.5 -1.9%

INR BDT INR-Bangladesh

1.2 1.3 -4.9% 1.3 -4.3%

INR BRL INR-Brazilian

0.1 0.0 14.4% 0.1 4.6%

INR EGP INR-Egyptian Pound

0.3 0.3 -7.7% 0.3 -3.8%

INR IDR INR-Indonesia

208.3 207.4 0.5% 208.3 0.0%

INR KES INR-Kenya shilling

1.4 1.6 -10.8% 1.5 -4.4%

INR NGN INR-Nigerian Naira

5.2 5.4 -4.0% 5.4 -4.1%

INR SAR INR-Saudi Riyal

0.2 0.2 -2.1% 0.2 6.5%

INR AED INR-UAE Dirham

0.1 0.1 -8.3% 0.1 -4.4%

INR MYR INR-Malaysia Ringgit

17.1 15.1 13.6% 17.0 1.0%

INR VND INR-Vietnam Dong

331.5 353.6 -6.3% 340.3 -2.6%

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

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Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

FMCG Q2FY19 RESULTS PREVIEW

Earnings Estimates

(Rs mn) Sep-18E Jun-18 qoq (%) Sep-17 yoy (%) Comments

ITC

Volume growth (est.) 5.0 1.5 (7.0) Positive surprise on cigarette volume growth (although management

has been guiding 3-4%) due to favourable base (7% decline)

EBITDA margin to expand despite not taking price hikes in the cigarette

segment due to positive contribution from FMCG business, significant

improvement in cyclical and capex -intensive (hotels, paper) on industry

upturn

Net income growth to be lower than EBITDA growth due to lower other

income and higher taxation

Revenues 110,430 105,547 4.6% 102,264 8.0%

Gross Profit 64,049 64,453 -0.6% 58,700 9.1%

Gross margin (%) 58.0 61.1 57.4

EBITDA 42,577 42,021 1.3% 37,615 13.2%

EBITDA margin (%) 38.6 39.8 36.8

PAT 29,427 28,187 4.4% 26,398 11.5%

EPS (Rs) 2.4 2.3 4.4% 2.2 11.3%

Hindustan Unilever

Volume growth (est.) 8.0 12.0 4.0 Volume growth to taper to high single digits from the double digits seen

in the past three consecutive quarters

Gross margin to expand 40bps yoy despite commodity inflation due to

price hikes and premiumization

EBITDA margin to expand 80 bps yoy on healthy volume growth,

premiumization, and its cost-savings programme

Net income to be lower than EBITDA growth due to lower other income

Revenues 92,534 93,560 -1.1% 81,990 12.9%

Gross Profit 48,580 49,920 -2.7% 42,700 13.8%

Gross margin (%) 52.5 53.4 52.1

EBITDA 19,888 22,510 -11.6% 16,820 18.2%

EBITDA margin (%) 21.5 24.1 20.5

PAT 14,327 15,670 -8.6% 12,360 15.9%

EPS (Rs) 6.6 7.3 -8.6% 5.7 15.9%

Dabur India Ltd

Volume growth 8.0 21.0 7.2 Volume growth is a bit slower due to the shifting of the festival season

to 3Q

Gross margin to remain almost flat yoy due to INR depreciation and

spiralling crude prices

Net income to remain flat yoy due to lower other income. Other income

to decline as it paid special dividend of Rs 5 per share during 2Q

Revenues 21,760 20,807 4.6% 19,589 11.1%

Gross Profit 10,836 10,321 5.0% 9,818 10.4%

Gross margin (%) 49.8 49.6 50.1

EBITDA 4,689 3,861 21.4% 4,199 11.7%

EBITDA margin (%) 21.5 18.6 21.4

PAT 3,688 3,300 11.8% 3,627 1.7%

EPS (Rs) 2.1 1.9 11.8% 2.1 1.7%

Godrej Cons. Products

Revenues 27,997 24,485 14.3% 24,969 12.1%

Gross Profit 15,678 13,539 15.8% 14,000 12.0%

Gross margin (%) 56.0 55.3 56.1

EBITDA 6,284 4,491 39.9% 5,427 15.8%

EBITDA margin (%) 22.4 18.3 21.7

PAT 4,341 4,115 5.5% 3,664 18.5%

EPS (Rs) 6.4 5.9 7.2% 5.3 19.9%

Marico Industries

Volume growth (est.) 7.0 5.0 5.0 Volume growth of 7% due to pressure on the CSD channel, higher

competitive intensity in Saffola, and unfavourable base in its VAHO

portfolio

Gross margin to remain under pressure on higher copra prices

EBITDA margin to fall 50bps yoy on commodity inflation

Revenues 18,429 20,268 -9.1% 15,363 20.0%

Gross Profit 7,980 8,572 -6.9% 7,235 10.3%

Gross margin (%) 43.3 42.3 47.1

EBITDA 3,016 3,549 -15.0% 2,591 16.4%

EBITDA margin (%) 16.4 17.5 16.9

PAT 2,157 2,557 -15.6% 1,814 18.9%

EPS (Rs) 1.7 2.0 -15.6% 1.4 18.9%

Jubilant Foodworks

SSSG 16.0 25.9 5.5 Solid SSS growth due to customers upgrading to EDV regular-size pizza

from Pizza Mania, high viewership during the FIFA qualifying round, and

favourable base due to the oregano pack crisis and shifting of the

Navratri festival to 3QFY19

Focus on reducing late deliveries, normalization of ad spends from

1QFY19, and strong SSS growth to drive EBITDA margin expansion

Revenues 8490 8551 -0.7% 7266 16.8%

Gross Profit 6325 6373 -0.7% 5388 17.4%

Gross margin (%) 74.5 74.5 74.1

EBITDA 1468 1421 3.3% 1022 43.6%

EBITDA margin (%) 17.3 16.6 14.1

PAT 770 747 3.2% 485 58.9%

EPS (Rs) 11.8 11.4 3.2% 7.4 58.9%

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Page | 5 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

FMCG Q2FY19 RESULTS PREVIEW

(Rs mn) Sep-18E Jun-18 qoq (%) Sep-17 yoy (%) Comments

Colgate

Volume growth 5.0 4.0 (0.9) Revenue growth to remain subdued to increasing competition from

natural players, consumers down-trading from the premium portfolio to

naturals products, and price correction in recently launched natural

products

Distribution expansion initiatives, RM inflation to weigh on operating

profitability

Revenues 11,676 10,413 12.1% 10,849 7.6%

Gross Profit 7,385 6,863 7.6% 6,879 7.4%

Gross margin (%) 63.3 65.9 63.4

EBITDA 3,326 2,816 18.1% 3,006 10.6%

EBITDA margin (%) 28.5 27.0 27.7

PAT 1,967 2,236 -12.0% 1,776 10.8%

EPS (Rs) 7.2 7.0 3.8% 6.5 10.8%

Nestle

Volume growth 8.0 11.5 8.9 Innovation in existing categories, entry into new categories, and

distribution revamp to drive high-single-digit volume growth

Margin expansion journey to continue on benign input costs, cost

efficiencies, and operating leverage

Revenues 27,878 26,794 4% 25010 11.5%

Gross Profit 16,308 15,904 2.5% 14164 15.1%

Gross margin (%) 58.5 59.4 56.6

EBITDA 6916 6500 6.4% 5911 17.0%

EBITDA margin (%) 24.8 24.3 23.6

PAT 4240 3958 7% 3435 23.4%

EPS (Rs) 44.0 41.1 7.1% 35.6 23.4%

Glaxo Smithkline Cons

Volume 10.0 12.8 2.4 Volume growth to see some impact on account of Kerala floods;

partially offset by good traction on sachets portfolio and high science-

based portfolio

Gross margin to expand 230bps yoy due to benign input costs

EBITDA margin to see healthy expansion on normalization of employee

costs and benign RM prices

Revenues 12391 11071 11.9% 11153 11.1%

Gross Profit 8302 7703 7.8% 7214 15.1%

Gross margin (%) 67.0 69.6 64.7

EBITDA 3094 2303 34.4% 2614 18.4%

EBITDA margin (%) 25.0 20.8 23.4

PAT 2441 2004 21.8% 1924 26.9%

EPS (Rs) 58.0 47.7 21.8% 45.7 26.9%

Britannia

Volume growth (est.) 6.0 12.5 6.0 Volume growth might be dented due to the transporter strike as the

company has a policy of keeping very lean inventory

Inflationary pressure in wheat , palm oil, and sugar to weight on gross

margin

EBITDA margin to remain flat yoy

Revenues 27,559 25,272 9% 25,365 9%

Gross Profit 10,541 10,009 5% 9,525 11%

Gross margin (%) 38.3 39.6 37.6

EBITDA 4,104 3,894 5% 3,777 9%

EBITDA margin (%) 14.9 15.4 14.9

PAT 2,818 2,582 9% 2,611 8%

EPS (Rs) 23 22 9% 22 8%

Emami

Volume growth (est.) (2.0) 16.0 10.0 Volume growth to be dented due to lower-than-expected off take to the

balms portfolio, continued slowdown in the international business, and

deficit rainfall in east India – a key market

Gross margin to remain under pressure due to higher mentha oil prices,

LLP, and packaging costs

Dividend payout to weigh on other income, resulting in yoy PAT decline

Revenues 6,371 6,144 4% 6,281 1%

Gross Profit 4,205 4,071 3% 4,228 -1%

Gross margin (%) 66.0 66.3 67.3

EBITDA 1,798 1,235 46% 2,013 -11%

EBITDA margin (%) 28.2 20.1 32.1

PAT 714 267 168% 987 -28%

EPS (Rs) 1.6 0.6 168% 2.2 -28%

Asian Paints

Volume growth (est.) 7.0 13.0 9.0 We expect volume growth to be impacted due to shifting of festival

season to 3Q and GST-related disruption on cut in rate to 18% from 28%

Gross margin to remain under pressure due to: (1) spiralling Tio2, crude

oil prices and currency depreciation and (2) company deferring price

hikes to 3Q owing to strict vigilance from anti-profiteering activities

EBITDA to decline 90bps yoy due to subdued volume growth, start -up

costs relating to commencement of its Mysuru plant, and commodity-

related inflation

Revenues 47,463 42,652 11% 42,652 11%

Gross Profit 18,748 17,610 6% 17,610 6%

Gross margin (%) 39.5 41.3 41.3

EBITDA 8,430 7,494 12% 8,011 5%

EBITDA margin (%) 17.8 17.6 18.8

PAT 5,338 4,330 23% 5,084 5%

EPS (Rs) 5.6 6.0 -7% 5.3 5%

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FMCG Q2FY19 RESULTS PREVIEW

(Rs mn) Sep-18E Jun-18 qoq (%) Sep-17 yoy (%) Comments

Bajaj Corp

Volume growth 5.0 8.7 5.1 Volume growth continues to remain subdued because of increasing

competition, new launches are yet to gain meaningful traction, and

continued pressure in international and CSD businesses

Gross margin to remain under pressure despite annualised price hikes

of 4-5% due to commodity inflation

EBITDA growth to be ahead of gross profit growth due to high other

operating income. Other operating income to get a boost due to tax

refund from the central government for setting up manufacturing

facilities in tax -exempt zones

Net income growth to be lower than EBITDA due to MTM losses on

investment portfolio

Revenues 2,224 2,150 3.5% 2,037 9.2%

Gross Profit 1,457 1,410 3.3% 1,363 6.9%

Gross margin (%) 65.5 65.6 66.9

EBITDA 665 691 -3.8% 583 14.0%

EBITDA margin (%) 29.9 32.2 28.6

PAT 542 538 0.9% 507 6.9%

EPS (Rs) 3.7 3.6 0.9% 3.4 6.9%

Agro Tech Foods

Revenues 2,077 2,144 -3.1% 2,058 0.9% Volume growth for edible oil portfolio (75% of business) to remain

subdued due to increasing competition from value players and

management resistance on taking price correction measures to counter

competition

Subdued volume growth, RM inflation, to result in EBITDA growth

(almost)

Gross Profit 602 720 -16.3% 690 -12.7%

Gross margin (%) 29.0 33.6 33.5

EBITDA 146 179 -18.5% 148 -1.9%

EBITDA margin (%) 7.0 8.3 7.2

PAT 69 90 -23.3% 67 3.2%

EPS (Rs) 2.8 3.7 -23.3% 2.8 3.2%

Titan

Revenues 40,831 43,189 -5.5% 34,023 20.0% Benefits of an improved gold exchange programme, increasing salience

from wedding / studded jewellery, and favourable base to far outweigh

benefits of shifting of festival season to 3Q

Jewellery business to see 15% volume growth on network expansion

and improved SSS growth

EBITDA margin expansion to continue on higher revenue growth

Gross Profit 5,470 4,953 10.4% 4,444 23.1%

Gross margin (%) 13.4 11.5 13.1

EBITDA 5,470 4,953 10.4% 4,444 23.1%

EBITDA margin (%) 13.4 11.5 13.1

PAT 3,811 3,492 9.1% 3,061 24.5%

EPS (Rs) 4.3 3.9 9.1% 3.4 24.5%

Parag Milk Foods

Revenues 5,533 5,380 2.8% 4,949 11.8% Focus on increasing contribution of value-added products and new

product launches will drive revenue growth

EBITDA margin to expand 70bps yoy on benign input costs and

operating leverage

Gross Profit 1,618 1,595 1.5% 1,354 19.5%

Gross margin (%) 29.3 29.6 27.4

EBITDA 585 575 1.8% 497 17.8%

EBITDA margin (%) 10.6 10.7 10.0

PAT 278 265 4.9% 231 20.4%

EPS (Rs) 3.3 3.1 4.9% 2.7 20.4%

Thangamayil

Revenues 3,450 3,872 -10.9% 2,738 26.0% Jewellery business should see strong growth based on GST-related pre-

buying and PMLA regulations (had derailed business in the base quarter

but are no longer present)

Gross margin expansion to continue due to increased in-house

manufacturing, increase in making charges, and higher salience from

high-margin silver / diamond-studded jewellery

Operating leverage shall drive EBITDA margin expansion

Gross Profit 345 392 -12.0% 255 35.3%

Gross margin (%) 10.0 10.1 9.3

EBITDA 187 225 -16.8% 123 51.9%

EBITDA margin (%) 5.4 5.8 4.5

PAT 76 104 -27.0% 41 85.2%

EPS (Rs) 5.5 7.6 -27.0% 3.0 85.2%

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

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Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year.

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BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL 15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than 15%

SELL <= 15% Target price is less than or equal to 15%.

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