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CIBC 20 th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017

Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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Page 1: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

CIBC 20th Annual Whistler

Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017

Page 2: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

2

This presentation and comments associated with it contain

forward-looking statements including statements relating to U.S.

housing recovery, the potential for constrained lumber supply,

energy-related opportunities, earnings sensitivity and estimated

annual capital expenditures. These statements are subject to

the cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2015

Annual Management’s Discussion & Analysis which can be

accessed on the Company website www.westfraser.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

Page 3: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

3

WEST FRASER

THEN

NOW

OUR GOALS

are to develop and maintain…

Excellence in

Performance and People

Leadership in our Field

Challenge and

Satisfaction

Responsibility in the

Communities in Which we

Work

Profitability

Growth

Page 4: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

4

• Operational excellence

• Diversification

• Product differentiation

• Integration

Our Strategy

Page 5: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

5

• Managing to ensure a committed workforce

• Cost control and efficiency

• Continuous reinvestment

• Internal and external benchmarking and

competition

• Straightforward, consistent business model

Operational Excellence

Page 6: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

6

LUMBER 28 mills

PANELS 7 mills

PULP & PAPER 5 mills

SPF 4.0 Bfbm SYP 2.3 Bfbm Total 6.3 Bfbm

Plywood: 830 MMsf3/8” MDF: 250 MMsf3/4” LVL: 3.2 MMcf

NBSK: 570 Mtonnes BCTMP: 650 Mtonnes Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes

Product Diversification

• North America’s largest lumber producer

• Largest plywood producer in Canada

• Third largest pulp producer in Canada

Page 7: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

7

Lumber66%

Panels11%

Pulp & Paper23%

Trend Sales Mix ($)

Page 8: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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Operations diversified by geography

Geographic diversification

B.C. 39%

Alberta 24%

U.S. 37%

Lumber Capacity

Page 9: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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• Wood as the best environmental choice

• Renewable resource, sustainable business

• Expanding applications

• Bioenergy, full use of the resource

Product Differentiation

Page 10: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

10

• In the last 3 years we’ve planted more than

180 million trees

• West Fraser manages 7 million hectares

of certified sustainably managed forests

• We’ve planted more than 1.6 billion

trees since 1955

• We plant approximately two trees for every

tree we harvest

• Planted in a line, 1.6 billion trees would

circle the earth 15 times

Sustainable Forest Management

Page 11: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

11

Wood is Good

Source: reTHINK Wood

Page 12: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

12

Lumber

Plywood Remanufacturers

Sawdust and shavings Chips Bark (Fuel)

BCTMP Pulp MDF NBSK Pulp Supply agreements

(e.g. pellet plants) Heat and Electricity

Integration - We Attain Value from 100% of Our Resources

Sustainably managed

forest lands

Reforestation

Bioproducts

Page 13: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

13

Demand - North American housing

- Residential improvements

- Chinese construction and

industrial applications

- Japanese housing

Supply - Fibre limitations

- Residual offtake

- Mill closures

- People

Efficiency - Capital investment

- Business model

Earnings Growth Drivers - Lumber

Page 14: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

14

Returns on Lumber

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%1

99

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

EBITDA Margin (%) - Lumber

Average: 15%

Page 15: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

15

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Production Underlying Demand

U.S. Housing M

illio

n U

nit

s

Source: FEA, 12-16

Significant pent up demand bodes well for long-term recovery

Pent Up Housing Demand (conventional + mobile)

Page 16: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

16

US Housing

Single Family Share well below 30 year average Share of single-family housing starts

Source: FEA 12-16

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

70 75 80 85 90 95 0 5 10 15

30 year average share = 76%

Page 17: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

17

U.S. Lumber End Use

U.S. Lumber End-use 2015 U.S. Lumber End-use Normalized

Source: FEA and WF

Single Family Construction,

26%

Multifamily Construction, 4%

Residential Improvements,

37%

Industrial Production, 28%

Nonresidential/Mobile, 5%

Single Family Construction,

31%

Multifamily Construction, 4%

Residential Improvements,

34%

Industrial Production, 24%

Nonresidential/Mobile, 7%

Page 18: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

18

Canadian SPF Shipments to China & Japan

Source: Council of Forest Industries

* Based on consumption of 11.5 Mfbm per U.S. housing start (average mix of single and multi family)

37 152

359

837

1,590

2,672 2,757

2,882

2,670

2,372

843 787 809

648 789 783 764 837

656 682

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

MM

fbm

China Japan

2015 - Equivalent to 270,000 housing starts *

Page 19: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

19

China Imports of Logs and Lumber (M M3)

Source: General Administration of Customs of The People’s Republic of China

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016est

Lumber Logs

Page 20: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

20 Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada

NORTH AMERICAN LUMBER PRODUCTION

75 72

65

53

42

47 49

51 54

56 59

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Billion Feet

Total North America (R Axis) BC Interior Rest Of Canada US South Rest of US

Page 21: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

21

North American Lumber Capacity

Page 22: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

22

Demand - China’s paper, tissue and packaging

demand

- Developing countries’ demand

Supply - European paper capacity closures

- European pulp capacity increases

- China pulp mill closures

- South American capacity increases

Reliability - Capital

- Technology

Earnings Growth Drivers - Pulp

Page 23: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

23

Chemical Pulp End-Use Products

Printing and Writing Papers

31%

Tissue 31%

Specialty Papers

19%

Fluff Based Products

10%

Boxboard 5%

Other 4%

Source: PPPC 2013

Page 24: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

24

BCTMP Pulp End-Use Products

Boxboard 44%

Printing & Writing

41%

Specialty Papers 8%

Newsprint 4%

Other 3%

Source: PPPC 2013

Page 25: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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Innovation & Bioenergy

• Our energy and bioproducts businesses

utilize carbon-neutral biomass fuels such

as bark, wood residuals and other wood

byproducts of our manufacturing process

• Biomass sourced from sustainably

managed forests can contribute to the

reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

• Today, more than half of our energy needs

are met through renewable biomass fuel

sources located at many of our facilities

Products/biomass

photos?

Page 26: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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• Reinvest profits to lower costs, improve efficiency

through technology and improved processes

• Capital spending in 2015 of $250 million

• Estimated 2016 spending of $275 million and

normalized spending between $175 and $225

million

• Growth through opportunistic acquisitions focused

on solid wood

Capital Strategy

Page 27: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

27

0

100

200

300

400

500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lumber Pulp

$ Millions

West Fraser Capital Spending

• Over the past five years, we’ve spent

approximately $1.4 billion to modernize

our facilities

Page 28: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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Six Energy and Bioproducts Projects

Page 29: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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Five Sawmill Rebuilds

Page 30: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

30

Eight Planer Rebuilds

Page 31: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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22 Continuous Kilns

Page 32: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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• Proven ability to generate strong cash flow, even in

worst markets

• Consistent, straightforward business plan

• Loyal, long-term employee and management base

• Conservative financial management coupled with

proven ability to grow strategically

• Strong historical shareholder returns

Why Invest in West Fraser?

Page 33: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

33

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2016 2015 2014

WFT CFP IFP

Cdn$ Million

Share Value Traded

Page 34: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

34

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016

Share Buy-back

Dividends

Significant Cash Returned to Shareholders

$ M

ILLIO

NS

Page 35: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

35

June 2006* – December 31, 2016

* June 2006 marked the beginning of the steep decline in U.S. housing starts

Source: TD Bank

10.5% 10.3%

5.4%

6.9%

3.8%

7.2% 7.1%

4.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

West Fraser Dow S&P/TSX DAX FTSE Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C

Annualized Shareholder Return (Cdn$)

Page 36: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

36

“WFT” – Toronto Stock Exchange

www.WestFraser.com

These materials have been prepared by Management of the

Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of

the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an

offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the

Company, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the

Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer,

solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may

not be offered or sold in the United States absent their prior

registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the

applicable registration or qualification requirements.

Page 37: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

37

APPENDIX

Page 38: Institutional Investor Conference...CIBC 20th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2017 2 This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking

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Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables (2015)

Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables 1

(based on 2015 production - $ millions)

Factor Variation Change in pre - tax e arnings

Lumber price US$ 1 0 ( per Mfbm ) 78

Plywood price Cdn $ 1 0 ( per Msf ) 8

NBSK price US$ 1 0 ( per tonne ) 7

BCTMP price US$ 1 0 ( pe r tonne ) 9

U.S. – Canadian $ exchange rate 2 US$0.01 ( per Cdn $ ) 28

1. Each sensitivity has been calculated on the basis that all other variables remain constant and assumes year end foreign exchange rates.

2. Excludes exchange impact of translation of U. S. dollar - denominated debt and other monetary items. Reflects the amount of the initial

US$0.01 change; additional changes are substantially, but not exactly, linear.