Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co ...api.commissiemer.nl/docs/mer/diversen/int_climate... · resembles development and adaptation challenges faced in many

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation

A Practice-Oriented Training Based on the OECD Policy Guidance

TRAINING MANUAL

Version 1 for Review and Piloting - May 2010


2 VERSION 1 FOR REVIEW AND PILOTING

Authors: Jennifer Frankel-Reed Alfred Eberhardt Mark Svendson Ilona Porsché, GTZ Contributions by: Lea Herberg, GTZ Martin Baumgart Marion Künzler, GTZ Coordination of course development: Ilona Porsché, GTZ

Contact: Michael Scholze Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH Postfach 5180 65726 Eschborn [email protected]


VERSION 1 FOR REVIEW AND PILOTING 3

This training course and associated materials were generously funded by the German Federal

Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), and developed by German

Technical Cooperation (GTZ) supported by InWent in coordination with OECD and a broad

range of reviewers from development agencies, NGOs and research institutions from around the

world. The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable feedback contributed by reviewers and

test training participants.

German Technical Cooperation’s (GTZ) Climate Protection Programme helps developing

countries to adapt efficiently and appropriately to changed climatic conditions. Working

together with our partners, we identify the options for action with regard to affected people,

economic sectors and ecosystems.

The key task of the Climate Protection Programme is to mainstream climate protection within

the various activities of German Development Cooperation. This applies both to reducing

greenhouse gas emissions, and to measures to adapt to climate change.

These tasks, however, cannot be successfully tackled by climate protection experts alone. The

Climate Protection Programme can therefore only work effectively if it is integrated into the

networks of development cooperation and globally organized climate protection, and

collaborates with national and international partners.

http://www.gtz.de/climate

http://www.gtz.de/climate



Contents

Introduction to the course .................................................................................................. 5

Introduction to Zanadu ....................................................................................................... 7

Module 1: Apply a climate lens ..................................................................................... 13

Module 2: Interpret climate data ................................................................................... 19

Introduction to South State............................................................................................... 25

Four step approach

Module 3: Assess vulnerability .......................................................................... 28

Assess vulnerability, step 1 ........................................................................ 29

Assess vulnerability, step 2 ........................................................................ 33

Module 4: Identify adaptation options ............................................................... 37

Module 5: Select adaptation measures ............................................................. 42

Module 6: Develop a monitoring and evaluation framework ........................... 44

Module 7: Build institutional capacity for adaptation ................................................. 47

Introduction to West State ................................................................................................ 50

Local action

Module 8: Local climate stresses, vulnerability, and resilience ...................... 52

Module 9: Take action at local level and beyond .............................................. 58

Module 10: Integrate adaptation into the project cycle .............................................. 61



Introduction to the course

Adaptation to climate change is a rapidly growing challenge, particularly for developing countries. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced significantly in the coming years, climate change impacts such as gradual temporal and spatial shifts in resources, as well as drought, floods, severe weather events and sea-level rise are likely to result in food shortages, increases in vector-borne diseases, infrastructure damage, and the degradation of natural resources. The poor will be affected disproportionately, and development choices today will influence the adaptive capacity of people and their governments well into the future. We cannot afford to delay adaptation planning and action to ensure that maladaptation does not exacerbate adverse climate impacts and impede sustainable development. Development cooperation provides an essential opportunity to make more resilient development investments. However, many development policies, plans and projects currently do not take climate change into account. There is a lack of awareness and clarity on how to effectively integrate adaptation into development strategies and technical co-operation; although a growing body of experience and guidance is available to partners and donors alike.

OECD‟s Environment Policy Committee (EPOC) and its Development Assistance Committee (DAC) therefore developed the Policy Guidance on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation1 (OECD Guidance) with the aim of promoting understanding and identifying appropriate approaches and practical ways for integrating climate adaptation into development policies and activities at all levels – national, sectoral, project and local levels.

German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) supported by InWent and in close coordination with the OECD developed this training course and associated materials based on their involvement in the OECD Guidance, extensive adaptation activities on the ground in developing countries, and the GTZ Climate Check tool for mainstreaming climate change into development cooperation activities.

Aim

The aim of this course is to enhance capacity among development actors and to support institutions in successfully implementing the Guidance and taking action on climate change adaptation. The teachings of this course provide an introduction to the theory and practical starting points of adaptation to the effects of climate change. Trainees will be provided with methodologies and tools of how to organize a process of integrating climate change adaptation into development cooperation at different levels.

Audience

Target groups for the course include:

- administration officials and planners in agriculture, water, natural resources, climate change, as well as other relevant sector agencies, and ministries at national, provincial and local levels,

- national and international development cooperation staff (climate experts as well as sector specialists without a climate change background),

1 http://www.oecd.org/document/26/0,3343,en_2649_34361_44096282_1_1_1_1,00.html

http://www.oecd.org/document/26/0,3343,en_2649_34361_44096282_1_1_1_1,00.html



- local consultants on adaptation to climate change (to create a basis for professional support and backstopping in-country),

- NGO / civil society representatives.

Design

The course is designed for a maximum length of 4-5 days. However, due to its module structure, it can also be „hand tailored‟ for shorter training events. The course is based on the Harvard Case Method, which conveys teaching messages mainly through interactive practical work by trainees. Hands-on learning focuses on a fictitious situation based closely on real life conditions and challenges.

This course examines adaptation challenges in the fictitious Federal Republic of Zanadu, and the Training Manual provides the materials necessary for carrying out practical case work that resembles development and adaptation challenges faced in many countries.

Training Modules

The OECD Guidance explores entry points for integrating adaptation into development co-operation at national, sector, local and project level. The main approaches to integrating adaptation outlined in the OECD Guidance are applying a climate lens and the four-step approach.

In this training, the approach of applying a climate lens is illustrated at the national level in Module 1, and the four-step approach at the sector level in Modules 3-6. Specific aspects to consider when integrating adaptation at local level are explored in Modules 8 and 9, and integrating adaptation at project level in Module 10.

Additional Modules are Module 2: Interpret climate data to introduce practitioners to sources and the interpretation of scientific climate data, and Module 7: Build institutional capacity for adaptation which conveys that integrating adaptation is a continual process for which institutional capacities need to be developed.

Training Package

The complete training package to complement the OECD Guidance on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Cooperation consists of:

- Training Manual: the storyline for delivering the training, exercises and supporting information (exhibits) for completing the exercises

- Trainer’s Handbook: advice for trainers on developing a good agenda with appropriate modules for different audiences; selecting slides to provide background and introduce key concepts; choosing the right discussion questions; and other aspects of facilitating a successful training

- PowerPoint Slides: a slide library with notes of material appropriate for a range of audiences

- Handouts: a summary of teaching points, an example, and further references for each module, to be disseminated after each module

- Action Learning Exercises: methods to convey concepts in a hands-on way.

Community

A website will be established with all materials available for download and a protected space for the sharing of experiences with the training.



Location

Number

[million]

Share

[%]

South State 40.0 67%

Urban 25 63%

Rural 15 38%

North State 8.0 13%

Urban 2 25%

Rural 6 75%

West State 12.0 20%

Urban 4 33%

Rural 8 67%

Total 60.0 100%

Zanadu Population

Introduction to Zanadu

The Federal Republic of Zanadu is a sub-tropical developing country. Because of its large variation in elevations, however, it spans a wide range of climates. These range from a tropical zone in the south with highly seasonal rainfall, to snow covered mountains in the north, to a semi-arid plateau in the west (see map page 11).

Geography

Zanadu covers an area of 300,000 km2, a size similar to Philippines, Ecuador, or Ivory Coast. Almost all of the country is drained by the River Alph, which rises in the glacier-covered peaks of the Khorus mountains of the neighboring nation of Khoresia and enters northern Zanadu draining an area of 350,000 km2 in both countries. Two thirds of the river‟s flow originates in Khoresia. The middle reach of the Alph bisects a large, fertile alluvial flood plain. Where the river empties into the sea to the south, it has created a large low-lying delta of fertile sediments. To the west, the land rises to a plateau of about 1,000 meters, which, while having reasonably good soils, receives more limited rainfall than the rest of the country.

Demographics

The current population is 60 million, giving the country a population density of 200 per km2 (similar to Pakistan, Burundi, Haiti, or Jamaica). Nationwide, the population is almost evenly divided between rural (48%) and urban (52%) areas. However, the rural/urban breakdown differs significantly among states. Population by state and location is shown in the table below.

The population growth rate is currently 1.9% per year but declining slowly. Median estimate of the expected population in 2050 is 105 million, though this depends on a number of factors and is uncertain. Most of the population growth over the coming 40 years is expected to take place in urban areas, driven by continuing rural to urban migration. Urban areas are home to a growing middle class, as well as growing areas of extreme poverty, especially due to the influx of unskilled and semi-skilled rural immigrants. Ethnic and clan ties are weakening in urban areas, but remain strong in rural villages.



The national literacy rate is around 68% (76% for males and 60% for females). The country has a widespread primary education system with more limited opportunities for secondary education. There are a number of excellent universities and technical schools which supply government bureaucracies and, increasingly, modern industries created by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), with professional staff. University graduates constitute only about 5% of the population.

Climate

The climate of Zanadu varies from alpine to sub-tropical. Average values of temperature and rainfall for the three representative locations are shown in the table below.

Maja, Southern Coast Alph River Plain West Plateau

Low

[C]

High [°C]

Avg monthly precip [mm]

Low

[C]

High [°C]


Low

[C]

High [°C]


Dec-Jan-Feb 14 27 10 9 23 18 16 24 25

Mar-Apr-May 24 35 60 21 35 13 17 25 75

Jun-Jul-Aug 26 33 236 27 36 182 16 22 200

Sep-Oct-Nov 23 32 121 19 32 56 15 23 58 Total annual precip/ Average temp 22 32 1280 19 31 797 16 23 1055

The observed change in average annual temperature over the past 50 years ranges from +0.7 C

in the Alph delta to +1.2 C in the Khorus mountains. The average sea level at the Maja coastal monitoring station has risen about 10 cm over the same period. Average annual rainfall is largely unchanged but the distribution has changed markedly with more runoff in winter and early spring, and less in the late summer and fall. The renewable per capita water availability for the country is currently around 1600 cubic meters per year, though this will decline with population growth, falling below 1000 cubic meters per capita around 2040, even if water use remains constant. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) regards water as a severe constraint on development and environmental protection when internal renewable water availability levels are below 1000 m3/capita. At levels below 2000 m3/capita, water is regarded as a potentially serious constraint, and a problem in drought years. The National Hydrometeorological Service (Hydromet) collects basic weather data at 30 locations across the country while the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) records daily river discharge values at 12 sites in the Alph basin, as well as monthly sea level elevations. MWR also conducts a simple snow survey each winter to try to predict snow-melt-based late season river discharges for the following year. Snowmelt discharge is important for meeting irrigation demand for water. In the past, the lower Alph plain has experienced a devastating flood roughly every 10 to 15 years. In recent years, however, flood frequency appears to be increasing and now occurs about every 8 to 10 years. Analytic capabilities in Hydromet and MWR are limited. Simple statistical analyses are carried out, but modeling and other predictive studies are seldom done, due both to a lack of skills and to the limited demand for such information from senior decision makers.



Zanadu Development Financing

FDI, € 750

National, €

500

ODA, €

1,000

Million Euros

Governance

Zanadu is a parliamentary democracy, headed by a Prime Minister, with extensive constitutional powers. International observers report that recent elections have been reasonably open and fair. A small environmental lobby has emerged recently, based in the urban middle-class. Ministries cover all important sectors at both national and state levels. Most important are the prime ministry and ministries of planning, finance, industry, water resources, and agriculture. There are environmental ministries at both national and state levels, but these are not well-resourced. In general, the approach to governance can be described as reactive rather than pro-active. There is no established system of water rights in the country. Rights are conferred de facto, when a government agency or a private developer creates a new piece of infrastructure which withdraws water from a river or from groundwater. This was not a problem when water was relatively abundant. Increasingly, however, this is leading to conflicts among old and new users. The national development budget totals around €1500 million annually, with Official Development Assistance (ODA) constituting about €1000 million of that or about €17 per capita – about the same as Ethiopia, Azerbaijan, Viet Nam, or El Salvador . In addition Foreign Direct investment (FDI) contributes an additional €750 million per year, a value which has grown strongly in recent years (see pie chart). Administratively, Zanadu is divided into three states – North State, West State and South State. The three states have considerable autonomy, as well as limited taxation powers. Although each state‟s own revenue funds the state recurrent budget, most of the development budget is provided by the national government.

Infrastructure All major cities are connected by all weather roads, but rural connector roads are often unimproved and sometimes impassible during the rainy season. The most important paved road follows the Alph River north from Maja through the agriculturally important Alph River Valley. All major cities have electricity service, though load shedding sometimes limits hours of availability. At the same time, demand for electricity is expanding rapidly. Only about half of the rural villages are currently electrified with the other half depending on firewood for their energy supply. Power generation is about 15% hydro, with the remainder coming from coal (75%) and natural gas (10%). Almost all of the hydropower is generated at a major dam on the Alph River in North State, though there are several smaller facilities on tributaries. The Alph river dam provides irrigation water storage and flood control services in addition to power generation. There are a number of technically attractive options for additional dam development upstream of the existing dam below the border with Khoresia. The mobile phone industry is burgeoning, with about 20 million mobile phones now in service. Traditional land line service, outside major cities, is undependable.



Sector GDP Employment

Agriculture 30% 50%

Manufacturing 20% 10%

Services 50% 40%

Shares of GDP and Employment

Economy

The Zanadu economy is in transition from being largely rural and agricultural to one where manufacturing and service sectors predominate. Current shares of different sectors to GDP and employment are shown in the table. Per capita income is currently around €1800/year. Five-year average annual GDP growth is about 4%. The resource base for the economy includes fertile agricultural land; water resources; coal and some natural gas; hydropower potential; and mountains and sandy beaches with tourism potential, in addition to a sizeable work force. Agricultural outputs include cotton, sugar, wheat, rice, cacao, palm oil, animal products, timber, and some seafood. Rice, cacao, palm oil, timber, and seafood are exported. Export oriented industries constitute roughly 15% of the economy. Manufactured outputs include textiles (including products from a growing garment industry) simple machinery, and fertilizer. Significant potential for growth exists in the service sector, in areas of tourism, outsourced technical support, and software development. Economic opportunities vary significantly between the different states of Zanadu however, and the South State is described in more detail in later chapters.



Map of the Federal Republic of Zanadu



Feature Value Notes

Government Parliamentary democracy Federal system

Population 60 million Rural (48%), Urban (52%)

Population growth rate 1.9% Declining

Literacy rate 68% Male (76%), Female (60%)

Major river Alph Snowfed

Renewable water availability per capita 1600 cubic meters Declining to 1000 CM by around 2040

Observed temperature rise, 1950-2000 0.7 -1.2 degrees C Mountains (1.2° C), Delta (0.7° C)

GDP per capita € 1800 per year Varies strongly among regions

GDP growth rate 4% per year 5 year average

Composition of economy Mixed Agric. (30%), Mfg. (20%), Services (50%)

Composition of employment Mixed Agric. (50%), Mfg. (10%), Services (40%)

Development budget € 1500 million In addition € 750 million from FDI

Power generation Primarily thermal Coal (75%), Hydro (15%), gas (10%)

Key Features of Zanadu



Module 1: Apply a climate lens

Apply a climate lens to a National Development Plan

Interpret climate data

Four-step approach: (1) Identify vulnerabilities, climate risks and opportunities

Four-step approach: (2) Identify adaptation options

Four-step approach: (3) Select adaptation measures

Four-step approach: (4) Develop a monitoring and evaluation framework

Build institutional capacity for adaptation

Local climate stresses, vulnerability, and resilience

Take action at local level and beyond

Integrate adaptation into the project cycle

Introduction to the exercise The development process of the Federal Republic of Zanadu is steered by the National Development Plan (NDP) 2012-2022. All relevant Sector Ministries are involved in plan elaboration under the guidance of the National Planning Commission (NPC) of Zanadu. The next regular revision is under preparation. The Government of Zanadu has decided to reflect climate change adaptation priorities in the new plan. Since first signs of climate change are obvious in Zanadu, with changes to mountain glaciers and snowfall, erosion in coastal areas, declining crop productivity due to drought and less predictable rains, the Government is aware that sustained progress toward development goals is becoming endangered by the impacts of climate change. This is especially relevant for the overarching goals of poverty reduction and sustainable economic growth.

Learning objective: Identifying the relevance of climate change to a policy, program, plan or project by overlaying climate sensitive development objectives and basic climate information Teaching points: Climate-sensitivity of core development goals, adaptation as a cross-cutting issue, overlaying basic climate change information with existing development challenges Concepts this module builds upon: Adaptation vocabulary, integrated adaptation begins with development Links between this module and next steps: A climate lens is the first step. It lays a foundation by raising flags about what should be explored further, and possibly by whom, in a subsequent vulnerability assessment.



Instructions for case work You are members of a climate change advisory group established by the National Planning Commission. You are provided with a first rough outline and the main development goals envisaged for the new plan. These are shown in Exhibit 1. You are invited to examine these goals through a „climate lens‟ to identify the relevance of climate change to each goal. This is the first step to improving the climate resilience of the national development plan. For this task, use the matrix below. Based on a quick scan of the development plan, goals in climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, water, infrastructure, and natural resources) are listed in the matrix below, and are marked in grey in exhibit 1. Your task is to begin to identify the regional priorities and potential administrative responsibilities for further analysis:

First, for each goal that is sensitive to climate change, explain its link with climate. For example, perhaps climate change would impact natural resources upon which the goal depends. Or climate change could damage certain components of the goal, or impact the ability of people to benefit from investments made to achieve each goal, etc.

Second, based on what you know about Zanadu, in which regions is each goal especially important? What priority regions require further evaluation?

Finally, identify the key actors at national level that have a role to play in further understanding and identifying the risks and responses. Consider which agencies or ministries might take responsibility for the next step.

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system can be affected, negatively or positively, by changes in climate (OECD policy guidance, 2009; IPCC 2001)



Goal How is this goal

sensitive to climate? What region(s) is/ are most at risk?

What entities (ministries, programs, actors) are concerned?

Increase and diversify agricultural production and rural incomes.

Safe drinking water supply and sanitation to be available for 80% of population by 2020.

Increase the percentage of hydropower from 15 to 25% by 2020.


Increase forest and tree cover by 5%.

Maintain minimum flows of all rivers to meet the needs of agriculture, municipal water supply, transport and industry.

Total fertility rate to be reduced to 2.1 by 2020.



Exhibit 1: Structure and goals for the Draft National Development Plan 2012 - 2022 (i) Income and Poverty

Average GDP growth rate of 9% per year in the NDP period.

Agricultural GDP growth rate at 4% per year on the average.

Increase and diversify agricultural production and rural incomes.

Increase share of GDP by new export oriented industries to 20% by 2020.

Generation of 6 million new work opportunities.

Reduction of unemployment among the educated to less than 5%.

20% rise in the real wage rate of unskilled workers.

Reduction in the head-count ratio of consumption poverty by 10 percentage points. (ii) Education

Reduction in the dropout rates of children at the elementary level from 52.2% in 2003–04 to 20% by 2011–12.

Developing minimum standards of educational attainment in elementary schools, to ensure quality education.

Increasing the literacy rate for persons of age 7 years or more to 85% by 2011–12.

Reducing the gender gap in literacy to 10 percentage points by 2011–12.

Increasing the percentage of each cohort going to higher education from the present 10% to 15% by 2011–12.

(iii) Health

Infant mortality rate (IMR) to be reduced to 28 and maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to 1 per 1000 live births by the end of the Eleventh Plan.

Total Fertility Rate to be reduced to 2.1 by the end of the Eleventh Plan.

Safe drinking water supply and sanitation to be available for 80% of population by 2020.

Malnutrition among children of age group 0–3 to be reduced to half its present level by the end of the Eleventh Plan.

Anemia among women and girls to be reduced to half its present level by the end of the Eleventh Plan.

(iv) Women and Children

Sex ratio for age group 0–6 to be raised to 935 by 2011–12 and to 950 by 2016–17.

Ensuring that at least 33% of the direct and indirect beneficiaries of all government schemes are women and girl children.

Ensuring that all children enjoy a safe childhood, without any compulsion to work. (v) Infrastructure

To ensure electricity connection to all villages and BPL (Below Poverty Line) households by 2020.


To ensure all-weather road connection to all habitations with population 1000 and above.

To connect every village by telephone and provide broadband connectivity to all villages by 2020.



To provide homestead sites to all by 2015 and step up the pace of house construction for rural poor to cover all the poor by 2016–17.

(vi) Water and Environment

To increase forest and tree cover by 5 percentage points.

To attain WHO standards of air quality in all major cities by 2015.

To treat all urban waste water by 2015 to clean river waters.

To maintain minimum flows of all rivers to meet the needs of agriculture, municipal water supply, transport and industry.

To increase energy efficiency by 20% by 2016–17.

To reduce groundwater withdrawals by 2015.



Exhibit 2: Climate change information and projected impacts for Zanadu Climate information

Temperature 1. Rising by 2 to 4 degrees C in the Khorus Mountains by 2050s 2. On the plains, expected rise of between 1.4 and 2.0 degrees C by 2050s (compared

with 1940-60 average). Precipitation

1. On average only a slight increase in annual precipitation by 2050s compared with the 1970 to 2000 average.

2. More fall and late winter precipitation in mountains to fall as rain rather than snow. 3. Higher intensity rainfall events with longer periods between events. 4. Later arrival, shorter duration of seasonal heavy rains

Sea Level

1. Rise in sea level of 0.2 to 0.4 meters expected by 2050s 2. Warmer sea surface temperatures

Projected impacts

Surface hydrology 1. Snow melt runoff begins 2 to 4 weeks earlier by 2050s 2. More variable flows in river 3. More frequent floods during summer 4. Longer periods without significant precipitation 5. Lower late summer river flows 6. Higher reservoir evaporation losses 7. Increased erosion of sloping land and reservoir catchments 8. Larger sediment loads in lower Alph

Groundwater hydrology

1. Recharge to shallow groundwater reduced by 15 to 25 % by 2050s.

Coastal areas 1. Submergence of about 10% of the Alph river delta by 2050s 2. Increased incidence of tidal inundation and storm surges in Delta 3. Shallow coastal aquifers become more saline 4. Saline tidal bores push further up the Alph 5. Less frequent but more intense cyclone impacts

Agriculture

1. Cotton yields not affected by 1 to 2 degree C temperature rise 2. Maize and wheat yields depressed by 1 to 2 degree temperature rise 3. Rice threatened with sterility by higher temperatures during flowering 4. Plantation crop yields enhanced by warmer temperatures (assuming water availability) 5. Crop water requirements generally increase by 3 to 5% by 2050 6. More frequent crop failures due to floods and droughts



Module 2: Interpret climate data

Apply a climate lens to National Development Plan


Four-step approach: (1) Identify vulnerabilities, climate risks and opportunities








Introduction to the exercise When applying the climate lens to the NDP, you identified „increased and diversified agricultural production and rural incomes‟ as well as „safe drinking water supply and sanitation‟ among those areas of particular vulnerability. You also noticed that you need much more detailed information to decide the extent and mechanisms of vulnerability and to select appropriate adaptation measures. You will further explore climate data in this exercise.

Learning objective: Become familiar with climate change information, its usefulness and limitations, and understand how to interpret and integrate it into development planning Teaching points: The different climate data sources and types of information, dealing with uncertainty, historic versus projected data, data at different geographic resolutions, models and scenarios Concepts this module builds upon: Identifying relevant climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, runoff, etc.) in the climate lens or vulnerability assessment stage, understanding climate change and key vocabulary Links between this module and next steps: This module focuses a vulnerability assessment (step 1) by helping participants to understand what the main stresses or potential impacts of climate change are likely to be (and where), and informs program/project design (steps 2, 3).



On the search for more detailed information and data you identified the following sources:

Historic data for one station in Zanadu: The Meteorological Office of Zanadu provided you with historic data for precipitation for the meteorological station of the capital Maja. The data are shown in Exhibit 3.

Model projections for Zanadu: In the climate models as provided by Oxford University you found projections on temperatures for the 2060s under the following web address: http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk/index.html. See Exhibit 4.

Scatter plot projections for the sub-continent within which Zanadu is located: You further made use of the data provided by IPCC under the web address http://www.ipcc-data.org/sres/scatter_plots/scatterplots_home.html IPCC provides long-term assessments for temperature and precipitation as projected through different climate models. The scatter plots are shown in Exhibit 5.

Instructions for case work Recall that no data source can provide you with a precise picture of the future, and that it is not possible to gain comprehensive information to support specific adaptation decisions.

Individually or in partners, start with one of the sources and explore what it can and cannot tell you in respect to temperature and precipitation.

Brainstorm what additional information you would need for sound decision-making in these areas. Think about key variables needed, appropriate resolution, and time scale.

Move on to the other data sources as time allows. Use the attached matrix for your work.

Source of data

What does the data tell you about rainfall and temperature?

What doesn’t the data tell you?

What other data do you need to devise adaptation strategies?

Exhibit 3: Historic rainfall data

Exhibit 4: Projected temperature map

Exhibit 5: Model scatter plots for the sub-continent

http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk/index.html

http://www.ipcc-data.org/sres/scatter_plots/scatterplots_home.html



Exhibit 3: Historic data from the meteorological station West State of Zanadu

Note: this graph will include a trend line in the next training manual version. For interpretation of this data: Historic precipitation data shows the amount of precipitation (mm) for each seasonal 3-month period (March-May, June-August, September-November, and December-February) based on observations at a meteorological station outside of Maja from 1970 (left)-2000 (right). The peaks can be attributed to the highly seasonal rainfall in summer, which occur in Zanadu during the months of June to September. The minimums indicate the dry cool winter season from December to February. Aside from directly acquiring data from meteorological services, for many countries the historic data from weather stations in Africa and Asia (as well as downscaled projections) can be accessed by downloading the Climate Change Explorer Tool: http://wikiadapt.org/index.php?title=The_Climate_Change_Explorer_Tool

http://wikiadapt.org/index.php?title=The_Climate_Change_Explorer_Tool



Exhibit 4: Model projections for Zanadu:

For interpretation of this data: The map shows the spatial pattern of change in mean annual temperature for the 2060s as projected by different available climate models. It is based on the A2 scenario by IPCC. The values in the grid boxes are anomalies (changes in temperature) relative to the mean climate of 1970-1999. In each grid box, the central value gives the median and the values in the upper and lower corners give the maximum and minimum of the range of projections by climate models. The median value is not useful as a basis for decision-making, but rather the range of model outputs should be used.



Exhibit 5a: Scatter plot projections for the sub-continental region of Zanadu Average projected data for 2040-2069 in June, July and August. Temperature is projected on the x axis and precipitation percentage change along the y axis.



Exhibit 5b: Scatter plot projections for the sub-continental region of Zanadu

Average projected data for 2040-2069 in December, January and February. Temperature is projected on the x axis and precipitation percentage change along the y axis.

For interpretation of this data:

There are four scenarios represented (see legend, bottom, left in the scatter plot b):

A1F1: results in the highest greenhouse gas emissions among the four scenarios.

A2: results in the second-highest greenhouse gas emissions among the four scenarios.

B2: results in the second-lowest overall GHG emissions among the four scenarios.

B1: results in the lowest overall emissions among the four scenarios. (source: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000))

Further the data of seven different global climate models are represented with different symbols (see legend at the top left in scatter plot b).

Each point indicates the temperature (along the x axis in °C) and precipitation (along the y axis as a % change from the historic average) projected by a specific scenario and model combination (averaged over 2040-2069). The scenarios embody different levels of global emissions based on various assumptions about population, technology, and economic development.

The ellipses centered on the origin indicate natural variability of temperature and precipitation based on historic CGCM2 (in red) and HadCM3 (in blue) model outputs.

If a point falls distinctly outside the ellipses, it is significantly different from the historic range of variability. It should be noted that the model outputs above are all statistically significant changes, often due to strong temperature changes that lie well outside the range of historical variability. In contrast, precipitation changes exceed historical variability in fewer cases. See section 3.1 of the full report for more detail: http://www.ipcc-data.org/sres/scatter_plots/scatter_plot_report.pdf.



Location Number Share

Urban 25.0 63%

Maja 10.0 25%

Medium cities (5) 15.0 38%

Rural 15.0 38%

Villages (10,000) 15.0 38%

Total 40.0 100%

South State Population [million]

Introduction to South State

South State is the largest, richest, and most populous of the three states of Zanadu Area: 140,000 km2 Cultivated area: 50,000 km2 (5 million ha) Irrigated area: 20,000 km2 (2 million ha) Population: 45 million Population density: 321 per km2

Geography The central part of the state is a large fertile alluvial plain, bisected by the River Alph. The Alph has created a large delta of fertile sediments where it empties into the sea. Much of the delta lies just a few meters above sea level. Most of it is protected on the sea side by mangroves.

To the east of the floodplain lies a range of low coastal hills and on the other side of them, a narrow coastal plain that features extensive swaths of white sand beaches along the seashore. A fringing coral reef lies just offshore. This area has major tourism potential, though facilities are largely undeveloped.

To the west, the land rises toward a plateau which forms most of West State.

Demographics South state‟s population of 40 million is two-thirds urban. In addition to the national capital, Maja, which has a population of 10 million, there are five other large cities in the state with a total population of 15 million. Three of these are located along the Alph, and two are inland. The rural population of 15 million resides in some 10,000 villages and small towns scattered across the state. Almost all of the population growth is concentrated in the urban areas and comprises a combination of in-migration from rural areas and natural growth.

Economy The state is the richest in the country, but also has the largest pockets of poverty. Agriculture accounts for some 20% of the state‟s GDP, but provides the employment base for 40% of the state‟s labor forces (direct and indirect). An economic activity of considerable future potential is a



small but growing high tech sector. There is a strongly growing demand for electricity, which is currently inadequate. There is an extensive textile industry based on the state‟s cotton. Cocoa processing has existed since the colonial era, and a palm oil industry for both culinary and biofuel uses is undergoing rapid expansion, driven by foreign investment, as a result of rising prices and biofuel mandates and subsidies in Western countries.

Agriculture The Alph River plain is the breadbasket of the state, and the country and supports an extensive rice/wheat crop rotation. Rice is grown during the highly seasonal rainfall in summer, followed by wheat in the dry cool winter season. Almost all of this area is irrigated from large government diversion structures and canal systems on the River Alph. Irrigation for the summer rice crop is supplemental to rainfall. The winter wheat requires irrigation to produce a viable crop. Further away from the river lies a pair of productive rain fed cotton belts, one on either side of the lower flood plain. Maize is also grown in the cotton belt, interspersed with the cotton fields. Some of these fields are irrigated from private wells. In the Alph Delta an extensive area is sown to rice in both seasons, though localized flooding from the heavy seasonal rainfall in summer can prevent rice growing in some areas during the summer. Much of the rice is irrigated from simple canals drawing water from the many natural distributaries of the Alph branching through the delta. Plantation crops are grown in the low hills in the north of the state. Native forest is currently being cleared to allow for expanded production of palm oil. Some growers of both cocoa and oil palm, usually the larger ones, are experimenting with drip irrigation from private wells. Farm sizes on the Alph River plain are generally small – in the order of three to five hectares. In the Alph River Delta, farm sizes are very small – on the order of 1 or 2 hectares. In the maize and cotton belt, farms are larger – typically on the order of 10 to 20 hectares, but some of the cotton farms are considerably larger. The plantation crops are generally produced on large family or corporate farms. Cropped and irrigated areas are shown below.

Crop Area [1'000 Ha]

Cropped Irrigated

Rice/wheat rotation 1,400 1,400

Cotton 2,000 0

Maize 300 50

Plantation crops (cocoa, palm oil) 750 150

Delta rice 500 400

Other crops 50 0

Total 5,000 2,000



Alph River Discharge

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ay

June Ju

ly

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Octob

er

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Months

Dis

ch

arg

e u

nit

s

1975-2000

2040-2060

Water Supply and Sanitation The capital city of Maja distributes treated surface water from the Alph to serve 70% of the city‟s population. About 20% of the wastewater is treated and returned to the river. The remainder of the wastewater flow is piped to an offshore outfall. All five of the medium cities use groundwater as a domestic and industrial water source and, overall, provide piped water service, to about 50% of their population. All cities have a basic sewage collection system, but wastewater is discharged into the Alph or a tributary after only primary treatment. Discharge water is typically high in coliform bacteria and, sometimes, industrial pollutants. Village drinking water is drawn entirely from ground water. Often this comprises one or several dug communal wells. In the villages there is no wastewater collection or treatment. Wastewater infiltrates into the ground or flows in natural drainage ways to tributaries of the Alph.

Hydrology Alph River discharge is highly variable across the seasons, with peak flows in July and August at the height of the highly variable summer rains. There is also great variability from year to year. Snowmelt provides much of the flow during the spring before the arrival of the summer rains. Available water during the low flow period following the summer rains is almost completely utilized for irrigation, municipal supply, and to maintain navigation access in the country‟s major port near Maja. Hydrographs for the periods 1975 to 2000 and for 2040 to 2060 are shown below.

Historical and projected Alph River hydrographs

Groundwater tables near the river are fairly stable. Further away from the river, levels are dropping at a rate of around 1 to 2 meters per year. In the upland and hilly areas, groundwater is unevenly distributed – present in some places and absent in others. Levels have begun to drop in recent years as more farmers develop groundwater for irrigating maize and plantation crops.



Four-step approach Module 3: Assess vulnerability



Four-step approach: (1) Assess vulnerability, steps 1 and 2








Introduction to the exercise The National Water Policy of Zanadu has been recently updated with goals and priority programs for 2012-2022. The Ministry of Water (MoW) in cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) has requested each state to review and update state level Water Programs in line with the new national policy. Funding will be allocated for high priority programs. Development cooperation partners have pledged financial support for the integration of climate change adaptation into 2012-2022 Water Programs. These funds are allocated for climate change adaptation assessments as appropriate, and for the design and implementation of priority activities to improve water management taking into account anticipated climate changes. The MoW in cooperation with MoA will prioritize strategic investments for a climate-resilient water sector.

Learning objective: Identify factors contributing to vulnerability in a system (sensitivity and adaptive capacity, exposure to climate signals and potential impacts), and explore factors that can be improved to reduce vulnerability Teaching points: Defining a “system of interest” for analysis and its components; understanding sensitivity, adaptive capacity; analyzing impacts of climate change along an impact chain; understanding vulnerability; and identifying aspects that are more or less difficult to influence in the system Concepts this module builds upon: The identification of priority concerns (i.e. “systems of interest” to focus on) in the climate lens assessment, basic climate change information, vulnerability vocabulary Links between this module and next steps: Identifying the sensitivity, adaptive capacity (and to a lesser extent exposure) factors that might be adjusted through adaptation in this module provides potential avenues for integrating adaptation in the next step, identifying options (step 2).



The revision of the State Water Program of the South State will be conducted by its State Water Administration (SWA). The SWA has decided to focus on two key areas, responding to the NDP priorities of (1) increased and diversified agricultural production and rural incomes and (2) safe drinking water supply and sanitation:

Increased and diversified agricultural production and rural incomes: The agricultural patterns of South State are described in the country description and the South State description above. The revision of the State Water Program aims at maintaining a balance between future water supply and demand for three important agricultural systems: (a) the rice / wheat rotation in the central plain, (b) upland plantation agriculture, and (c) the delta rice growing.

Safe drinking water supply and sanitation: Drinking water is provided by different means as explained in the country and state descriptions: In Maja, supply is from treated surface water from the river Alph. In the five major cities supply is from pumped ground water, and in the rural areas by community wells. For all three systems, the national goal of ensuring safe drinking water supply and sanitation for 80 % of population by 2020 is relevant.

You were appointed as a member of an adaptation advisory group to the SWA during its revision of the State Water Program. You decided to follow the Four-Step Approach for this support, which includes the following steps: (1) identify key vulnerabilities, climate risks and opportunities, (2) identify adaptation options, (3) select preferable adaptation options, and (4) propose an approach to evaluate the success of adaptation. In this exercise, you start with the first step.

Instructions for case work During the first of the four steps you identify relevant climate stresses, sensitivity, adaptive capacities, potential impacts of predicted climatic changes, and resulting vulnerabilities or opportunities for the indicated systems of interest of the State Water Program. This requires a two-step process, first understanding existing stresses related to climate and current sensitivities and adaptive capacities, and in step two, thinking about the potential consequences or impacts of climate change on this system. Use the matrix below during your group work.

Assess vulnerability, step 1 The terms used in the matrix are defined as follows:

Climate stresses are climate extremes to which the system and its components are currently exposed, and could include variable temperature and rainfall, cyclical flood, drought, storms, etc.

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system can be affected, negatively or positively, by climate. These are generally the internal qualities of the system‟s components that make it more or less affected by climate.

Adaptive Capacity is a system‟s ability to adjust to climate change and variability, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences. It is the human actors in a system that possess adaptive capacity.

In your desktop research, you extracted from the current State Water Program those systems of interest within the two mentioned areas that seem to be particularly relevant for adaptation. They are listed in the matrix.



Tasks, Step 1:

Start with one system of interest that was identified by the SWP and brainstorm the resources and assets within it. This should make it easier to think about what exactly in the system is sensitive or what contributes to adaptive capacity. For example, for rice/wheat rotation, the crops, equipment, laborers, farmers, etc., are some of the key resources and assets within the system.

For each system of interest, identify current climate stresses to which the system or its components are exposed. You might also make use of the data in casework 2 and the information in exhibit 2. The main question to answer is: What climate stresses (e.g., historic and current variability) affect this system of interest?

In column C, consider which factors within the system of interest make the system sensitive to climate variability and change. Sensitivity factors are the internal characteristics of the system that make it more or less susceptible to harm. Examples of sensitivity factors are local housing materials and crop water requirements.

In column D, elaborate factors influencing the system‟s current adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is the ability to take action to prepare or respond to stresses and is a function of the relative level of economic resources, access to technology, access to information, and skills to make use of the information. The people in a system possess adaptive capacity.



Entry Point 1: Increasing agriculturally-based production and incomes in rural areas A B C D

System of interest Current climate stresses to which the system is exposed

What contributes to sensitivity within the system?

What factors influence current adaptive capacity?

Rice/wheat rotation in central plain (Development objective: to expand production) Resources/assets:

Upland plantation agriculture (Development objective: to raise productivity and create jobs) Resources/assets:

Delta rice growing (Development objective: to protect existing livelihoods) Resources/assets:



Entry Point 2: Safe drinking water supply and sanitation A B C D

System of interest Current climate stresses to which the system is exposed

What contributes to sensitivity within the system?

What factors influence current adaptive capacity?

Urban water supply system (in capital Maja) (Development objective: to expand coverage) Resources/assets:

Urban water supply system (in 5 Medium cities) (Development objective: to expand coverage) Resources/assets:

Rural water supply systems (Development objective: to provide coverage) Resources/assets:



Assess vulnerability, step 2

Introduction to the exercise, step 2 Step 2 merges our understanding of vulnerability to current climate from step 1 with the added stresses of future climate change predicted by climate scientists, and its potential impacts. The terms used in the matrix are defined as follows:

Climate change signals of concern are anticipated changes in climate, based on projections. (Climate change signals of concern indicates some level of exposure – otherwise we would not be concerned.)

Potential impacts are consequences of climate change on natural and human systems, i.e. more frequent drought periods, inundations‟ or salt water intrusion. Primary impacts are those direct impacts that result from climate change factors, such as damaged infrastructure due to flooding or erosion of shorelines due to storm surge. Secondary impacts are those impacts that follow from primary impacts and are likely to affect socio-economic development, such as declines in access to services due to damaged infrastructure or losses in tourism revenues due to shoreline erosion.

Vulnerability is a function of exposure to climate stresses, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Vulnerability increases as the magnitude of climate change or sensitivity increases, and decreases as adaptive capacity increases. For example farmers are vulnerable because increasing temperatures may negatively impact crop yields and without alternative crops or water sources farm incomes would drop.

Source: http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/glossary/images/VulnerabilityDiag_AllenConsulting.jpg

http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/glossary/images/VulnerabilityDiag_AllenConsulting.jpg



Based on what you know about the area, current climate and sensitivity of the system from step 1, now you will think about likely future climate change impacts.

Tasks, step 2: In column E, identify the key climate change signals of concern based on the information

provided about the state. What climatic changes are projected to which the system or its components are exposed?

Consider the projected climate signals in combination with the already existing climate stresses and the sensitivity factors from step 1, and brainstorm the potential primary impacts to the system in column F. What might you expect to result from the climate changes listed in column E?

Next, in column G, brainstorm secondary impacts that you might expect to result from anticipated climate change and to follow from the primary impacts listed in column F (thinking along an impact chain).

Finally recall that vulnerability is a function of exposure (to hazards caused by climate signals of concern), sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, and pull all of the elements together (A-G) to draw some overall conclusions: How vulnerable is each system of interest or its component s to climate change and variability? You may indicate high, medium or low vulnerability, either relative to the other systems of interest in the table, or for various components within the system itself.



Entry Point 1: Increasing agriculturally-based production and incomes in rural areas A E F G H

System of interest Climate change signals of concern to which the system is exposed

What are the potential primary impacts, considering sensitivity from part 1?

What are the potential secondary impacts?

Rate the vulnerability of the system or its components: High, Med, Low

Rice/wheat rotation in central plain (Development objective: to expand production) Resources/assets:

Upland plantation agriculture (Development objective: to raise productivity and create jobs) Resources/assets:

Delta rice growing (Development objective: to protect existing livelihoods) Resources/assets:



Entry Point 2: Safe drinking water supply and sanitation A E F G H

System of interest Climate change signals of concern to which the system is exposed

What are the potential primary impacts, considering sensitivity from part 1?

What are the potential secondary impacts?

Rate the vulnerability of the system or its components: High, Med, Low

Urban water supply system (in capital Maja) (Development objective: to expand coverage) Resources/assets:

Urban water supply system (in 5 Medium cities) (Development objective: to expand coverage) Resources/assets:

Rural water supply systems (Development objective: to provide coverage) Resources/assets:



Four-step approach Module 4: Identify adaptation options











Learning objective: Identify a range of options to adjust or improve planning and management by integrating adaptation, and understand that using climate information and adaptation methods can improve results. Teaching points: “No regrets” options (with benefits even without climate change), types of action (policy change, infrastructure, enhanced capacity, good practices), timeframe of actions to be taken, role of local knowledge, building on coping strategies, roles of various actors in the system Concepts this module builds upon: Options are identified that respond to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity factors (and to a lesser extent exposure) identified in the vulnerability assessment stage (step 1), and take account of uncertainty Links between this module and next steps: Provides a broad brainstorm for further evaluation and analysis (in step 3)



Introduction to the exercise Based on the vulnerabilities that your adaptation advisory group identified, you are entering the second step of the Four-step Approach, focusing on the identification of adaptation options.

Instructions for case work You still focus on the same two key areas of the State Water Program: (1) increased and diversified agricultural production and rural incomes and (2) safe drinking water supply and sanitation. The development of adaptation options is conducted at this stage on a brainstorming basis. You generate options without worrying about feasibility, cost or limiting factors. These issues will be reflected during the analysis in step 3 of the Four-step approach. You might use a checklist (see Exhibit 7) to generate ideas, which can apply to both agricultural and domestic water supply issues. Complete the following tasks:

Devise all possibilities of integrating adaptation you might think of in respect to your given systems of interest. Please use the attached matrix to organize your work. Also, the potential climate change impacts are listed from the previous case work.

If time allows: Reflect on main actors that will be crucial to implement the devised options.



Entry Point 1: Increasing agriculturally-based production and incomes in rural areas

System of interest Potential climate change vulnerabilities and opportunities

Adaptation options or adjustments to be integrated

Actors / stakeholders

Rice/wheat rotation in central plain (Development objective: to expand production)

Crop loss due to rice sterility caused by temperature increase

Higher pesticide use and working time due to increased pest and weed incidence

Lower yields due to higher evapo-transpiration, failing to meet crop water requirements

Inadequate water supply following highly seasonal rainfall in summer

Upland plantation agriculture (Development objective: to raise productivity and create jobs)

Higher crop yields with temperature increase

Drought damage due to dry spells

Higher evapo-transpiration

Declining ground water tables due to shifting rainfall and overpumping

Soil erosion due to intense rainfall and human pressures

Delta rice growing (Development objective: to protect existing livelihoods)

Inundation due to sea level rise, intense rain or storm events, and human pressures

Damage to land and settlements due to increasing storm surge

Damage to settlements due to higher cyclone winds



Entry Point 2: Safe drinking water supply and sanitation System of interest Potential climate change

vulnerabilities and opportunities

Adaptation options or adjustments to be integrated

Actors / stakeholders

Capital city water system (Development objective: to expand coverage)

Salt water intrusion contaminating drinking water supply

Inadequate river water supplies at low flow due to temperature and precipitation changes

High sediment in river flows due to intense rainfall events and human pressures

Five medium city water systems (Development objective: to expand coverage)

Falling ground water levels due to lower recharge and over-pumping

Quality problems due to lower recharge and extreme rain events

Village water systems (Development objective: to provide coverage)

Falling ground water levels due to lower recharge and over-pumping

Potential shortage of water supply due to lack of alternative sources



Exhibit 7: Checklist of adaptation options related to agricultural and municipal water supply, use, and management Types of options: Infrastructure = I, Policy = P, Capacity = C, Good Practices = GP Supply-based options

1. Install more wells (I) 2. Construct more diversion structures on river (I) 3. Construct on-stream storage dams (I) 4. Artificially recharge groundwater (I, GP) 5. Treat and reuse wastewater (I) 6. Desalinate brackish or saline water (I) 7. Cloud seeding to enhance precipitation (I) 8. Re-allocate water among sectors or users (P)

Demand-based options

1. Shift to higher-value lower-water consuming crops (GP) 2. Promote drip irrigation technology (I, GP) 3. Line irrigation canals (I) 4. Develop and promote revised agricultural practices and crop choices (P) 5. Improve management of abstracted water (information systems, management

practices, human resource capacity building) (GP, C) 6. Promote water conservation in urban areas, greywater use and sanitation (GP, P) 7. Physically ration water (P, GP) 8. Introduce water pricing/raise water rates (P) 9. Upgrade water infrastructure (I) 10. Reduce unaccounted for water (GP) 11. Introduce incentives (and disincentives) for careful water use (overuse) (P) 12. Introduce payment for environmental services (P) 13. Regulate groundwater withdrawals, introduce fees (P)

Information-based options

1. Expand monitoring programs for water supply and use, climate, agricultural output, water quality, and ecosystem health (e.g. installation of meteorological stations). (C)

2. Develop capacity to model climate change effects on a regional scale (C) 3. Develop and apply models to assess potential impacts of climate change parameters

on agricultural production and economic returns to agriculture (C) Other options

1. Develop and distribute new seed varieties. (GP) 2. Relocate vulnerable populations (P) 3. Relocate vulnerable infrastructure (P) 4. Set and enforce wastewater discharge standards (P) 5. Enhance watershed management (GP)



Four-step approach Module 5: Select adaptation measures











Introduction to the exercise Having identified adaptation options, your team is challenged with the task of selecting the most appropriate ones based on a chosen set of criteria. This will form the basis for combining the most suitable measures into packages and developing an adaptation strategy. The OECD Guidance recommends the following key criteria for selecting adaptation measures:

Effectiveness: the extent to which the adaptation option reduces vulnerability and provides other benefits.

Cost: includes investment cost as well as cost over time such as operation and maintenance costs, reconstruction costs etc.

Learning objective: Become familiar with criteria for integrating adaptation into development planning and management, evaluate options using selected criteria, and formulate a strategy Teaching points: Criteria and parameters for action (timescales, limitations, etc.), multi-criteria analysis for adaptation Concepts this module builds upon: Identifying options (step 2) and vulnerability assessment (step 1) lay a foundation for this step. Adaptation as a participatory process and the need to gather diverse views are important when identifying criteria and prioritizing actions in this step Links between this module and next steps: The results of the evaluation of adaptation options will feed into a strategy and provide the basis for developing an appropriate monitoring and evaluation approach (step 4).



Feasibility: answers the question, whether the necessary legal, administrative, financial, technical etc. resources exist. Adaptations that can be implemented under the current operational framework will usually be favored.

Additional criteria or parameters may be appropriate to include, depending on the context. Other criteria could include social acceptance, relative speed of implementation or benefits, “no regrets” potential (high co-benefits aside from reducing climate change impacts), alignment with funding requirements or other eligibility criteria, alignment with policy priorities, etc.

Instruction for the case work Based on the results of the previous case work, perform the following tasks using the matrix given below:

Transfer the potential adaptation options identified during the last case work and the development goal these options are related to into column 1.

Use the selection criteria as given by the Guidance – effectiveness, cost and feasibility –and devise other criteria if desired (e.g. sustainability of ecology and socio-economy).

Consider each option using the criteria, and score them using ++ / + / - / --. Alternatively score the criteria from 4 (highest achievement of criterion) to 1 (lowest achievement of criterion).

Evaluate the options by in the final column.

Consider from the „bird‟s eye perspective‟, whether the results make sense. Do they address the range of key risks? Would they be effective together? Do they overlap or complement each other?

Integrating adaptation option & related dev. objective(s)

Criterion 1 Effective-ness

Criterion 2 Cost

Criterion 3 Feasibility

Criterion 4:

Criterion 5:

Overall evaluation



Four-step approach Module 6: Develop a monitoring and evaluation

framework











Introduction to the exercise At this stage, your team has taken the results of steps 1, 2 and 3 and contracted selected experts to review the options identified and explored the implications of various alternative packages of measures. Your team has also consulted the SWA, agriculture department and involved municipalities to develop a coherent adaptation strategy based on both stakeholder and expert inputs. A strategy has been proposed to the SWA for inclusion in the revised State Water Program, and in initial communications, SWA has responded positively. They now request that a monitoring and evaluation framework with a clear objective, “no adaptation” and “adaptation” scenarios, and indicators for major components of the strategy be prepared.

Learning objective: Developing elements of a monitoring and evaluation framework for adaptation Teaching points: Challenges of monitoring and evaluation for adaptation, establishing baselines and adaptation scenarios, indicators Concepts this module builds upon: The strategy resulting from steps 1, 2 and 3 provides the basis for developing monitoring and evaluation. The vulnerability assessment provides a reference for the sensitivity or adaptive capacity factors that should be improved through adaptation. Links between this module and next steps: Concludes the four-step approach. The complete four step approach may be followed by the institutional capacity or project cycle modules for relevant audiences.



Instructions for case work You should begin the process to sketch a baseline (no adaptation) and adaptation scenario, and determine key elements of the adaptation strategy that will ensure the adaptation scenario is achieved. Then brainstorm indicators for each component of the strategy. Recall that your recommendations to the SWA assume approximately a 10-year time horizon (2020). Your tasks are:

Review the existing (current day) and anticipated (2020) climate stresses in Exhibit 8. Consider what the impacts of anticipated climate change stresses might be on the system if no action is taken, and consider how adaptation might be able to improve the situation.

In the table below, develop basic No Adaptation (baseline) and Adaptation scenarios by answering the questions in general terms. Your team may need to add more evidence at a later stage, but the details are not essential now.

Examine the list of adaptation measures to be integrated into SWA planning in Exhibit 8. These emerged from your prioritization process, expert input and stakeholder consultations. Select 2-3 of these measures to be integrated, and add any others that your team feels are critical to include in the strategy. Record these in the table.

Finally, brainstorm potential indicators for each of the main components of the strategy within your group. Take into account the baseline and adaptation scenarios that you just sketched, and record your ideas for potential indicators in the table.

If time allows, suggest possible sources of data for tracking each indicator.

No Adaptation Scenario – “baseline” situation without adaptation. Consider climate and non-climate stresses and factors:

Adaptation Scenario - situation if adaptation to climate change is integrated. Consider climate and non-climate stresses and factors:

With no adaptation, how will water be managed?

With no adaptation, how will water be used?

With no adaptation, what happens to agricultural productivity and drinking water supply? What are the results of this scenario?

With adaptation, how will water be managed?

With adaptation, how will water be used?

In the desired scenario with adaptation, what happens to agricultural productivity and drinking water supplies? What are the results of this scenario?



Adaptation measures to be integrated into SWA planning

Potential indicators Means of data collection

1.

2.

3.

4.

Exhibit 8. Climate stresses and possible adaptation measures to be integrated Climate stresses

Potential adaptation measures to be integrated into SWA planning 1. Introduction of new crop varieties that are more drought resistant

2. Introduction of a tiered water pricing system for domestic water service

3. Construction of terraces in agricultural fields for better water use and to combat soil erosion

4. Introduction of drip irrigation technology to reduce water requirements and raise value of

production

5. Training for water managers and major users to optimize storage practices, improve

maintenance of transmission system, and improve irrigation practices

6. Expansion of storage capacity to prevent drinking water shortages

7. An advisory panel formed with water, agriculture, and meteorological departments, water

providers, and agriculture industry groups to jointly develop annual water management

recommendations that respond to climate change.

Existing climate stresses Anticipated climate stresses (2020)

Variable rainfall Highly seasonal rainfall Temperature stress on crops

Increasing temperatures 1-1.5°C Declining groundwater recharge Increasing crop water demand Alph peak flow shifts to slightly later in year



Module 7: Build institutional capacity for adaptation











Learning objective: Identifying the institutional capacities needed to deal with adaptation as a continual process Teaching points: Key functions/capacities for adaptation, links between existing functions/capacities and adaptation, adaptive management Concepts this module builds upon: The brainstorming of adaptation options (step 2) and development of a strategy (step 3) provide an idea for the type of responses needed, with implications for how responsible institutions must take action Links between this module and next steps: Provides a basis for general discussions about the kinds of programs and projects needed from a development cooperation perspective.



Introduction to the exercise In response to your report, SWA identified five key areas in which they wish to build capacity within the Authority to deal with water management and adaptation. They recognize that adaptation is an ongoing process, shaped by evolving climate and non-climate conditions, and evolving knowledge about response and planning options, and request your team‟s support to provide a framework for building, monitoring and evaluating capacity in these five functions:

Assessment

Planning

Information management

Coordination

Implementation.2 Adaptive management (or learning by doing) is a useful concept from natural resources management. Adaptive management is used in complex settings, often where environment and people interact. The idea is to improve management through learning from actions taken by evaluating the process as well as the monitoring the results. Adaptive management can be defined as a structured, iterative process of decision-making. This is especially helpful in the face of uncertainty, as it leads to more appropriate responses over time via system monitoring and adjustment. Adaptive management assumes that resource management policies and actions will be adjusted based on new scientific and socio-economic information, and that stresses may shift or new stresses may emerge. The SWA has used the adaptive management approach in the past to manage water resources, and they request your team to reflect this in the framework for improving policy and management capacities.

Instructions for case work

Recall the challenges facing sustainable water management in the South State and the mandate of the State Water Program: managing surface and groundwater for multiple uses, including agriculture, drinking water supply and sanitation, flood control, navigation and recreation.

Column 2 lists what the SWP is already doing (with varying degrees of success) to carry out key functions for managing water in the state: assessment, planning, information management, coordination, and implementation.

Building on this basis, in column 3, brainstorm recommendations for what the SWP needs to do to integrate adaptation to climate change into each of these functions. Document the products or results for each function that help to integrate adaptation in the next column.

Next, since adaptation is an ongoing process, briefly consider the need for these functions to “learn-by-doing,” or to be adaptive to new knowledge and information. In the third column, estimate how frequently each product generated in column 2 should be updated and revised.

In the last column, brainstorm what capacity development activities should be carried out to enhance the capacity of the SWP to perform these functions.

2 This adapts work undertaken by a World Resources Institute (WRI) project to identify national adaptation functions. See: www.wri.org/project/vulnerability-and-adaptation.

http://www.wri.org/project/vulnerability-and-adaptation



State water program functions/ capacities

Existing capacity: what is currently produced

What needs to be generated or produced to integrate adaptation?

How frequently should these be revisited or updated?

What capacity development activities are needed?

Assessment Adaptation concerns: emerging climate risks, adaptation options

State water resources inventory

Projected water demand and supply scenarios

Climate change scenarios

Climate change impact assessments, identification of hotspots

Identification of adaptation options

Adaptation cost assessments

With new IPCC data

Every 5 years, or as new risks emerge

Ongoing basis, as new options are identified

As above

Training of staff to use scenarios

Joint impact assessments with water and climate change experts

Workshop on adaptation options and cost assessment methods

Planning Adaptation concerns: near and long term adaptation planning

10 yr resource mgmt plans

Allocation based on national criteria

Infrastructure design standards

Information management Adaptation concerns: integrate up-to-date climate info into water programs

Policy documents published on the website

Coordination Adaptation concerns : organization and leadership for adaptation

Exchange of data with neighboring states

Outreach to major users and polluters

Implementa-tion Adaptation concerns: Reducing climate risks

Funding for projects identified in 10 year plans



Introduction to West State

Geography

The area of West State is 60,000 square kilometers, 20% of the national total. It has a sub-tropical semi-arid climate with extended arid areas in the west. The State receives in average about 400 mm of rainfall annually. Most of the precipitation is concentrated in the four months from June to September, while the rest of the year is quite dry.

Soil quality is rated medium to poor. They are in parts heavily eroded and depleted of nutrients from mismanaged agriculture and livestock grazing.

Demographics

The state‟s population is currently 12 million, of which two-thirds is rural. It contains one major city, Lapa, the state capital, several towns and numerous small villages. The Talaran District in the northwest has a population of about 50,000. It is mainly arid. The District is experiencing rapid population growth.

Economy

The state‟s economy is agriculture-based. Overall, its per capita income is just 60% of the national average. There is an extensive area of sugar cultivation around Lapa supplying several large refineries. This is the wealthiest part of the state. The northwest region in and around Talaran District is one of the poorest regions in the state. Its local economy is based on limited rainfed cereal production and mainly livestock grazing. Land used for agriculture, forestry and pasture farming is being degraded and parts are no longer suitable for use. As a result poverty and conflicts among sectors of the population are emerging. Transportation links with the rest of the state are poor.

Agriculture

Agricultural yield in West state is extremely sensitive in relation to climatic conditions, therefore it can be assumed that climate change will affect food security. Farmers and pastoralists observe a rise of temperatures in general around the year, with a tendency that the duration of the dry season extends. In addition there are stronger storms, partially from directions which are atypical for the respective season. The direct effects of these climatic changes are an increased evaporation, a reduced infiltration of the rainfall into the soil and groundwater, an increased land surface temperature as well as increased stress on flora and fauna with extensive consequences for the ecological systems and production systems of the rural population. Due to change of the climate and strongly shortened rainy season traditional millet and sorghum varieties are no more able to reach the stage of ripening as they need between 120 to 150 days to mature. Small farmers are observing that the rainy season began in former times in May today they can sow only in July. At the end of September the rain already stops and the millet seeds do not reach the ripening stage so that the millet stocks remain empty. Many of them try to extend the range of cultivated crops, in order to reduce the risk.



Pastoralists are reporting that their animals do not find enough fodder any more, many nutritious herbs and grasses on the pastures disappeared, instead there are many grasses, which the animals do not consume. They complain that the water places in the valleys dry out to early and they must divide their herds and visit during the drought periods far-removed pastures in different regions. The trade of grains in West State has changed during the last decades and became more important. Today the self-sufficiency of the rural households became rare and also the rural population has to buy a part of their grain for consumption on the market.

Climate change information and projected impacts for West State Climate information

Temperature 1. Expected rise of between 1.5 and 2.5 degrees C by 2050s (compared with 1940-60

average). Precipitation

1. On average a slight decrease in annual precipitation by 2050s compared with the 1970 to 2000 average.

2. Higher intensity rainfall events with longer periods between events. 3. Later arrival, shorter duration, of seasonal heavy rains

Projected Impacts

Surface hydrology 1. Longer periods without significant precipitation 2. Increased erosion of sloping land and reservoir catchments

Groundwater hydrology

1 Recharge to shallow groundwater reduced by 15 to 25 % by 2050s. Agriculture

1. Maize and wheat yields depressed by temperature rise 2. Crop water requirements generally increased by 3 to 5% by 2050 3. More frequent crop failures due to droughts 4. Increasing incidences of overgrazing due to poor pasture qualities and reduced rainfall



Local Action Module 8: Local climate stresses, vulnerability,

and resilience

Apply a climate lens





Four-step approach: (4) Develop a monitoring and adaptation framework





Introduction to the exercise The fragile natural resources of the Talaran District in Zanadu‟s West State, as well as the people who depend on them, are threatened by rapid population growth combined with inappropriate resource management. Land used for pasture farming, agriculture, and forestry is being degraded and parts are no longer suitable for use. As a result poverty and conflicts among sectors of the population are emerging. In this area a number of Sustainable Rural Development projects focused in different sectors are being supported by foreign donor agencies. It was decided by the District Government that the projects should integrate adaptation to climate change, since observed and expected climate change is likely to intensify existing stresses.

Learning objective: How to identify local information on climate change vulnerability using participatory rural appraisal methods Teaching points: Integrating discussions about climate-sensitive livelihoods into participatory appraisals, understanding climate and non-climate stressors, using observed climate variability as a starting point for adaptation to climate change Concepts this module builds upon: This module may be used as the vulnerability assessment step, or may be best following the vulnerability assessment module (step 1), terminology Links between this module and next steps: This module links well with the four-step approach, but provides some additional context on methods for linking participatory local processes and adaptation to climate change




Within the Sustainable Rural Development projects being developed, district officials and donor agencies are employing participatory approaches involving local stakeholders. One of these projects is focused on participatory community development plans. A preliminary stocktaking workshop with all relevant stakeholders was recently conducted, and a summary report was prepared, mainly consisting of a hazard map, list of problems the stakeholders identified, and selected stories (see exhibit 9).

The current exercise takes place within a follow-up workshop, which seeks to systematize and explore these concerns. As a stakeholder of the project, you are asked to:

Distinguish between climate and non climate-related stresses on the livelihoods of your group and record the priority climate-related stresses on either pastoralists‟ or farmers‟ livelihoods;

Specify ways in which your group is sensitive to climate change; and

Identify your group‟s coping or adaptation capacity.

Identify participatory rural appraisal tools that could be used to deepen understanding of these key dynamics – climate stresses on livelihoods, sensitivity, and adaptive/coping capacity.

Definitions

Climate stresses are climate extremes or shifts in climate that put stress on livelihoods, either on the inputs to livelihoods, the ability to carry out livelihood activities or ability to benefit from them. Examples of climate stresses are a change of temperature (stressing crops), increasing dry spells, or more variable precipitation.

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system can be affected, negatively or positively, by changes in climate.

Coping capacity is the ability of a system to withstand climate stresses. It does not imply adjustment and change as with adaptive capacity, but rather the ability to endure the impacts.

Adaptive capacity is a system‟s ability to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences. Coping and adaptive capacity increase the resilience of a system.

Task

From the perspective of either farmers or pastoralists, review the report from the community workshop in Exhibit 9, as well as the list of PRA tools, and complete the following matrix.

Stakeholder group perspectives (choose farmers or pastoralists)

What PRA tool(s) could you use to explore this issue further? How would you use these tools?

Key climate-related stresses on livelihoods



Stakeholder group perspectives (choose farmers or pastoralists)

What PRA tool(s) could you use to explore this issue further? How would you use these tools?

What makes your group sensitive to climate change?

What adaptive and/or coping capacities does your group have?

Exhibit 9 – Workshop report from Talaran stakeholders

Hazard Map:



Brainstorm of problems:

unreliable electricity

poor road to Talaran capital

drying wells

loss of soil during heavy rains

drying of lakes

degradation of pasture

animal deaths during dry spells

food insecurity when rains are weak and crops fail

declining fuelwood sources

pests

loss of jobs and men going to town for work

more dengue cases

Local stories:

“In 2005, the rains arrived three weeks later than usual and a number of intense rainfall events occurred once the rains arrived. Millet farmers lost crops due to the late onset of rain. Farmers with sloped land and degraded grazing areas lost soil. Farmers with a variety of crops fared better than those who had planted fewer crops, and families that also had livestock were able to sell them for emergency income and supplement their diets.”

“Landless laborers are facing increasing problems in our region. During years with poor yields they do not find appropriate employment. Since there are no other job opportunities in our region, they have to migrate to other parts of Zanadu. I heard of a local family that ended up in a slum area of Lapa as trash pickers at the garbage dump.”

“Our grandmother states that years with serious scarcity of drinking water are much more frequent than during her youth. We now often have situations when the village wells do not provide sufficient water. We have to buy water from the trucks coming along regularly but they demand prices that the poorer families cannot afford.”

“A pilot initiative in one part of Talaran district coordinated by the regional government and supported by an international donor has invested in improving the use of surface water and protecting against erosion though the use of cover crops and rock lines. After three years, the pilot area has improved soil retention and fertility. Farmers participating in the project are able to cultivate onions and tomatoes through the dry season.”

“A nearby community has formed an artisan‟s group and is selling vessels made with local materials to a craft market in Talaran. They have pooled a percentage of their earnings into a small fund for things that benefit all members.”



Selected PRA Tools

This list is not exhaustive. Additional PRA tools should be discussed within your groups. Text adapted from Jain, S.P. and Polman, W., 2003. A handbook for trainers on participatory local development: the Panchayati Raj model in India. Second edition.3

Seasonal Calendar

A seasonal calendar is intended to provide a common representation of the variability of pressures on livelihoods throughout the year. An extended version of the crop calendar might represent all of the major changes within the rural year, such as rainfall patterns and other major climatic changes, cropping, livestock cycles, labor demand, etc. This helps in identifying lean periods for resources and in timing the supply of farm inputs and alternative employment initiatives. In some areas, people are more familiar, comfortable and accurate using locally relevant cropping or religious benchmarks than the Western calendar. Seasons and months can be related to festivals and livelihood activities that are known and generally celebrated by the large majority of the local population.

Visual History Long-term changes in rural areas can be represented in diagrams such as historical profiles and graphic time trends. The local people‟s accounts of the past, of how things close to them have changed - ecological histories, land use and cropping patterns, customs and practices, trends in fuel use, etc. - can be represented with approximate dates before and after well-known events. The combination of local perspectives with secondary information sources can improve the design of local development initiatives.

The image of a winding river on poster paper or a chalk board may be a useful way to visually represent a community‟s history. Important years may be indicated along the course of the river, and the influences of important events reflected in the characteristics of the river and noted alongside changes in its width, depth, direction, health, or degradation.

A historical transect depicts local knowledge of the state of natural resources over a period of time. This can be done for various sectors of the rural economy to produce a series of diagrams reflecting people‟s perceptions and priorities about changes in natural resources, which are so closely linked to livelihoods.

Mapping

Community mapping can provide useful local input to the design of village plans. People can draw maps of their village and locate the services, facilities and infrastructure according to availability and access to different groups, thus facilitating the identification of needs, problems and solutions. Different village groups can draw different maps to depict their perceptions, problems and needs. A number of maps by all sections of people in a village can help in prioritizing and preparing village plans of action.

People in the village can draw maps on the ground, floor or on paper (these can later be transferred to paper by the facilitator/PRI actor). Social, demographic, health, natural resources or farm maps can be drawn to construct three-dimensional models of their land. Some examples of such maps constructed by villagers are shown as illustrations in this section. The part to be played by the decentralized development actors in this exercise is that of patient listening and motivating people to participate by accepting and respecting their knowledge.

3 See Annex II. http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/ae536e/ae536e08.htm



Transect

Can be used to substantiate and support a map. A transect is a systematic walk with villagers through the village, observing, listening to villagers‟ descriptions, asking relevant questions, discussing ideas, identifying different zones, local technologies, introduced technologies, seeking problems, solutions and finally, diagramming/mapping the transect walk and its findings. This helps to:

build rapport with local people;

substantiate and support the diagrammed facts; and

identify locations of the problems and opportunities for development.

Venn diagram A Venn diagram shows the relationship between individuals, groups and institutions in a community as perceived by the people. The diagram is made up of touching or overlapping circles of various sizes, with each circle representing an individual or institution, as appropriate to the situation. The size of each circle indicates their importance or influence and the overlap indicates the degree of contact, interaction, or involvement in decision making. Venn diagrams may help in the formulation and implementation of initiatives at the local level, indicating where key interactions exist or are absent, as well as in identifying marginalized individuals/groups in the community.

Prioritization matrix

A matrix can be used to involve people in prioritizing local needs. Using a common matrix, community members vote using seeds, stones or other appropriate “votes” to give scores to different development needs or actions, either individually scoring or in small groups and aggregating across the community. Group prioritization can facilitate a democratic process of prioritization, ensuring people‟s involvement in planning. This is useful for micro-planning at village level.

Interviews

Interviews can be conducted in a way that is structured (using set questions) or semi-structured (focused on key topics) with individuals or small groups, as appropriate to the community and purpose. Interviews allow planners to identify the factors contributing to stresses on livelihoods for particularly vulnerable groups within a community, as well as gather local perspectives on development and environment challenges and potential solutions. Important opportunities and barriers may be identified in interviews, for example, issues like access to resources and social services. Interviewers should ensure that questions are designed using neutral, open-ended language to avoid biasing responses.



Local Action Module 9: Take action at local level and beyond











Introduction to the exercise

Based on the outcome of the stocktaking workshops at community level, a larger workshop at district level is now being conducted to focus on climate change issues of relevance to sustainable district development, and to communicate messages to people within and beyond the system. The goal is to identify options and opportunities for adaptation through which stakeholders can build resilience to climate variability and change and sustainably manage natural resources in coordination with relevant actors and networks at other scales: district – state – national.

Learning objective: Identifying what can be done at the local level, and how local action links to regional and national governance and other actors Teaching points: Links to other levels of governance, advocacy and research, communicating/advocating adaptation priorities, different stakeholder perspectives Concepts this module builds upon: This module builds on an adaptation assessment process (vulnerability assessment, options identified and prioritized, strategy developed). The module could follow the participatory methods module (local climate stresses, vulnerability and resilience), or modules from the four-step approach, or could be done separately if audiences are already familiar with the adaptation process. Links between this module and next steps: This is a good final module before moving to planning practical applications.



The workshop is being coordinated by an NGO. In attendance are district officials including the forestry administration, local farmers‟ and grazers‟ cooperative representatives, the district water provider, and scientists from local universities.

The participants of this workshop have specified their local climate change vulnerabilities (during the previous step) after a briefing on anticipated climate change in the region by a national expert from the National Meteorological Service (for climate information, refer to Introduction to the West State).


You are participants of the workshop and have the following tasks:

Screen the vulnerabilities in the first column. What options are available to increase adaptive capacity and reduce sensitivity so that vulnerabilities might be reduced?

Communities may be able to take action on their own to reduce vulnerability in some ways, but other actors in the broader network may be essential to implementing other responses. Specify the actors with capacities to realize solutions.

Finally, some options may be well understood, but for others, questions may remain. In the final column, identify what else you have to know to come to a decision or strategy.



Vulnerabilities to climate change in Talaran district

Adaptation options Who has the capacity to take action within the community or the broader network?

What more do you need to know?

Pastoralists are vulnerable to loss of grazing areas due to overuse of lands, drought, and intense rain events

Women are vulnerable to the reduction of available water in wells caused by reduced groundwater recharge and overpumping

Farmers are vulnerable to changes in precipitation due to their reliance on rain for agriculture

Farmers are vulnerable to increasing temperatures due to the lack of heat and drought tolerant crops

Food security is vulnerable to changes in incomes and production on account of flood, drought, and late rains

Children‟s educations are vulnerable to being interrupted due to the increased need for on-farm or on-pasture labor



Module 10: Integrate adaptation into the project cycle











Introduction to the exercise

The Government of Zanadu, often in co-operation with bilateral and multilateral agencies, is implementing a number of sustainable development projects focused in different sectors. Climate change adaption needs to be integrated into projects, and the government has asked for methodological support to do this. You are an expert group and will first advise the government on integrating climate change adaptation into the project cycle in general, and then advise individual ministries on integrating adaptation into specific projects.

Learning objective: Identifying key steps to integrate adaptation into the project cycle Teaching points: Different steps required at different stages, different levels of sensitivity of programming in different sectors and regions, practical implications of addressing adaptation concerns (time, information, expertise required) Concepts this module builds upon: Climate lens or other modules that build familiarity with the relevance of adaptation for development cooperation Links between this module and next steps: A good final module for agencies or offices using projects to program their resources.



Keep in mind the two dimensions of your task. For project managers it is important to know:

i) Are the projects vulnerable to climate change, i.e. are the goals of the project threatened by climatic changes?

ii) Are project activities likely to increase or decrease the vulnerability of natural or human systems? And having identified this, how can positive effects of project activities leading to greater adaptive capacity or strengthened resilience be maximized, and any potentially negative effects of project activities which may increase vulnerability be minimized?

Instruction for the case work

Step 1: Entry points for adaptation in the process cycle

Firstly, consider generally at what stage in the project cycle each of the following questions is relevant and note it in the Project Cycle Diagram. Each question may be relevant at more than one point in the cycle:

What are the climate risks?

How can the project become more climate-resilient?

Where is climate information needed to improve the project?

Is adaptive management successfully integrated into the project?

The project cycle with key interventions for adaptation (source: OECD policy guidance)

Project identification

Project appraisal

Detailed design

Project implementation

Monitoring and evaluation



Step 2: Integrating adaptation into the project cycle of a Zanadu project example

You are now advising government ministries on integrating adaptation into their projects. Using one of the project briefs provided, your task is to:

i) Review a project brief and determine at what stage in the project cycle you are and how you can make adjustments to raise resilience and adaptive capacity. Note down answers in a project cycle diagram on a flipchart or pin board.

ii) It may be useful for you to use a tool to support you in finding relevant climate data, in a decision making processes around climate change adaptation, or in codifying and sharing adaptation options. If time allows, review the selection of climate change adaptation tools and platforms described in Exhibit 10, and decide whether any or a number of these could be useful to support your work at this stage.

iii) Report back to the relevant Zanadu Ministry how you propose to integrate adaptation into the project, and outline the steps required to integrate climate change adaptation at this stage and the following steps in the project cycle.



Project goal / objective: __________________________________________________ Is the goal sensitive to climate variability and change?

No

Yes Why? ______________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________________

Could the project increase vulnerability of the project beneficiaries?

No

Yes Why? _______________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________

Could the project decrease vulnerability of the project beneficiaries?

No

Yes Why? _______________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________

Ris

ks

Op

po

rtu

nit

ies



Where in the project cycle is the project? (Check)

What steps would you advise to minimize risks and maximize opportunities?



Exhibit 10: Climate change tools, data, platforms and guides

Tools

CRiSTAL (Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods) by IISD. Tool for community scale vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. Specifically to (a) Understand the links between livelihoods and climate in their project areas; (b) Assess a project‟s impact on community-level adaptive capacity; and (c) Make project adjustments to improve its impact on adaptive capacity and reduce the vulnerability of communities to climate change. Users can follow this process through a Microsoft Excel interface or by reading the accompanying document (User‟s manual) http://www.cristaltool.org/content/download.aspx

ADAPT (Assessment and Design for Adaptation to Climate Change) by the World Bank: A Prototype Tool – This multisector computer-based tool conducts a sensitivity analysis for specific projects, and is targeted to development practitioners: http://www.go.worldbank.org/AWJKT60300

Global Adaptation Atlas by Resources for the Future, a dynamic climate change impact mapping tool. The Atlas brings together diverse sets of data on the human impacts of climate change and adaptation activities across the themes of food, water, land, health and livelihood to help researchers, policymakers, planners and citizens to establish priorities for action on adaptation.: http://www.adaptationatlas.org/index.cfm

Climate Check by GTZ: (a) Climate Proofing = systematic climate risk reduction & increase of adaptive capacity; (b) Emission Saving = systematic maximization of contributions to GHG reductions. Tool to assess whether project goals are threatened by climate change and identify adaptation measures within the scope of the project; and identify climate-friendly way of achieving project goal. The instrument is targeted to GTZ programs but also can also used – with some modifications - for partners to integrate climate change aspects in their work.

CEDRA (Climate change and Environmental Degradation Risk and Adaptation Assessment) by Tearfund. A field tool which helps agencies working in developing countries to access and understand the science of climate change and environmental degradation and compare this with local community experience of environmental change. Adaptation options are discussed, and decision-making tools are provided to help with planning responses to the hazards identified. CEDRA includes integrating Disaster Risk Reduction responses as relevant existing forms of adaptation. http://tilz.tearfund.org/Topics/Environmental+Sustainability/CEDRA.htm

Climate Data

World Bank climate change data portal: Provides an entry point for access to climate related data and tools. The Portal provides access to comprehensive global and country data information related to climate change and development, and intends to serve as a common platform to collect, integrate, and display climate change relevant information at the global scale. http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/home.cfm?page=globlemap

The Nature Conservancy Climate Wizard allows users to map historic climate data as well as downscaled projections for the globe (switch to global): http://www.climatewizard.org/

IPCC Data Visualization: Part of the Data Distribution Centre (DDC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The DDC provides climate, socio-economic and environmental data, both from the past and also in scenarios projected into the future.

http://www.cristaltool.org/content/download.aspx

http://www.cristaltool.org/content/download.aspx

http://www.go.worldbank.org/AWJKT60300

http://www.adaptationatlas.org/index.cfm

http://tilz.tearfund.org/Topics/Environmental+Sustainability/CEDRA.htm

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/home.cfm?page=globlemap

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/home.cfm?page=globlemap

http://www.climatewizard.org/



Technical guidelines on the selection and use of different types of data and scenarios in research and assessment are also provided. The DDC is designed primarily for climate change researchers, but materials contained on the site may also be of interest to educators, governmental and non-governmental organizations, and the general public. http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/

Platforms

Climate 1-Stop provides a single location to access climate change tools, resources and information. Users can upload and share materials: http://www.climate1stop.org

Adaptation Learning Mechanism (ALM) with case studies, publications, country profiles, open to user submissions: http://www.adaptationlearning.net

weAdapt is an adaptation wiki for sharing experience: www.weadapt.org

Community Based Adaptation Exchange, a platform for exchanging news, events, case studies, tools, policy resources, and videos: http://community.eldis.org/.59b70e3d/

Guides

USAID Adapting to Coastal Climate Change: A Guidebook for Development Planners (2009): http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/cross-cutting_programs/water/docs/coastal_adaptation/adapting_to_coastal_climate_change.pdf

IPCC Technical Paper on Climate Change on Water: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_technical_papers.htm

World Bank Guidance notes on Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture and Natural Resources Management Projects (2009): http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/content/mainstreaming-adaptation-climate-change-agriculture-and-natural-resources-management-project

Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre’s Preparedness for Climate Change – A process-based guide developed to assist national societies in assessing the climate change risks threatening vulnerable people in the country and programs. http://www.climatecentre.org

http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/

http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/

http://www.climate1stop.org/

http://www.adaptationlearning.net/



http://www.weadapt.org/

http://community.eldis.org/.59b70e3d/

http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/cross-cutting_programs/water/docs/coastal_adaptation/adapting_to_coastal_climate_change.pdf

http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/cross-cutting_programs/water/docs/coastal_adaptation/adapting_to_coastal_climate_change.pdf

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_technical_papers.htm

http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/content/mainstreaming-adaptation-climate-change-agriculture-and-natural-resources-management-project

http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/content/mainstreaming-adaptation-climate-change-agriculture-and-natural-resources-management-project

http://www.climatecentre.org/

Documents

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co ...api.commissiemer.nl/docs/mer/diversen/int_climate... · resembles development and adaptation challenges faced in many