Integrating climate change considerations into sustainable

development and poverty alleviation

Inger Andersen, DirectorSustainable Development DepartmentMiddle East and North Africa Region

The World Bank

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Climate Change Impacts on Africa and Mediterranean

Climate changes over the last 100 years..

Less rainfall in the Sahel

More rainfall in East Africa

Africa has warmed on average 0.5 degree C over last century

Six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1987

4

…and those projected for the futurePercent change in run-off: multi-model average for the winter and summer precipitation (A1B SRES scenario)

Punch line: by 2050, reductions of by 20 to 30% in northern, western and southern Africa; most of MENA by 2050; increases of 30-40% in eastern Africa

Source: Milly et al (2005), published in Nature

Ecosystems and Agriculture Productivity Could Be Severely Impacted

•Reduction in soil fertility

•Decreased livestock productivity

•Increased incidence of pest attacks

•Shifts and changes in lengths of growing seasons

Agriculture contributes about 20-70% of GDP and 70-80% employmentEach 1ºC rise in average temperature will reduce dryland farm profits in Africa by nearly 10%.

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Natural Disasters are on the rise…

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Increase in the annual frequency of large-scaledisaster events in Africa since 1985

Distribution of Disasters in SSA Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

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… and are expected to increase further

Millions of people experiencing coastal flooding in North Africa(constant protection in 2080)

32.2

25.6

14.2

12.0

0.7

7.66.25.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0-1°C 1-2°C 2-3°C 3-4°CTemperature increase (°C)

Mill

ion

s o

n p

eo

ple

High population growth scenario Low population growth scenario

Punch line: between 6 and 25 million people will be exposed to coastal flooding in North Africa under a temperature increase of between 1 -3 degrees

Source: Stern report background paper

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The energy and mitigation agenda in the region

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Energy access is crucial for growth in Africa

• Only 24% access to electricity

• 28/48 SSA African countries affected by energy crisis

Source: World Bank

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Region’s GHG contributions: far less than its population shareRegion's Shares in Emissions Population and

Economy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Emissions Population GDP (current US$)

Per

cen

t

7.50%

17.20%

3%

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What is the World Bank doing to help on adaptation and mitigation

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Integrating adaptation into investment lending

World Bank Committments, SDN Network, AFR and MENA Regions, FY02-FY07 (US$ Million)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Transport

Energy and Mining

Agriculture and RuralDevelopment

Water

Urban Development

Environment

Social Development

Information/Communications

WB lending in climate-sensitive sectors has averaged $3 billion per year; preliminary estimates for the MENA region suggest that 20-30% of that will help countries increase climate change resilience

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Energy Sector: promoting the access and low carbon agenda

Over the last 5 FYs, the World Bank has financed projects worth $2.8 billion in the region (71% of the total) to expand access to modern energy and promote low carbon sector development

MENA and SSA Energy Lending, FY03-07 (US$ Million)

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

Transmission anddistribution

Other energy

Thermal generation

Oil, gas and coal

Low Carbon, plusblended low-carbon &

access

Access

Source: World Bank (2007), Clean energy for development Investment framework: Making a difference on climate change - Progress report

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Land Use/Forestry

Hydro

Landfills/ Compost

Energy efficiency

Other renewable

ERPA Signed

36 World Bank Projects in Portfolio/ Pipeline

2

6

14

9

5

Total36

2

2

4 6

41

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

2

1

11

1

Promoting carbon markets in the region

Region Carbon Finance Project Status – July 2007

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Knowledge generation – Some Regional Level Initiatives

• Water resources (2-year program)– River basin focus (Lake Victoria, Eastern Nile, Senegal, Niger,

Congo, and Zambezi) – Knowledge base, climate risk management guidance, awareness

building)

• Sustainable land management (Through TerrAfrica)– Country climate baseline information at relevant scales– Guidance for climate proofing and risk management in SLM

Investments– Development and coordination of inter-agency round table on

climate proofing SLM • Energy efficiency

– Study in North Africa and Middle East to assess benefits of improved energy efficiency and viable policy options

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Country level analytical work: some examples

Morocco: water, agriculture, urban

development

Yemen, Djibouti: water, agriculture, urban

Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia:Managing environmental risk

Madagascar:Adaptation and Risk management

Burkina Faso: Community Based Rural Development

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Morocco: downscaling climate models will help develop better estimates of

impacts on agricultureProjection of winter precipitation change

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

TANGIERS BENI MELLAL MARRAKECH

% c

ha

ng

e in

pre

cip

tita

tio

n

2020 2050 2080

Note: projections obtained through statistical downscaling of HadCM3, B2 SRES scenario

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Project Example:Project Example:Climate and Disaster Risk Management Madagascar

• Hydro-meteorological risk assessment for agriculture

• Cyclone impact modeling • Rice agro-climatic modeling• Updating of infrastructure

norms and standards• Vulnerability analysis for

drought-prone South • Analysis of historical and

projected climate change• Technical assistance and

capacity building for local entities

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Country example: Morocco, water sectorWB is working with the government on policy, analysis

and investments to reduce climate change impacts

World Bank lending in support of the Water Sector in Morocco (US$ Million)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Portfolio (FY03-FY07) Pipeline (FY08- FY10)

Plan water storage, transfer investments for expected future rainfall and demand patterns. Renewed emphasis on water allocation within safe consumption limits

Affordable water services for growing municipal demand. Highest impact investments in wastewater collection and treatment

Bring ag water use to sustainable levels. Use new technologies to increase $/drop and compensate farmers for reduced consumption. Emphasis on public communication

Ensure some in-stream flows, planned aquifer drawdown or management, and manage wastewater discharge

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Improving the policy and incentive framework

• Public sector policies and incentives necessary to:– Reduce regulatory uncertainty and mitigate regulatory

risks (e.g., in carbon finance) – Expand equity and debt capital for projects with high

investment costs and long lead times– Advance R&D

• Public Finance Management to improve both allocation and efficiency

• Policy framework (e.g. water, urban, agriculture) can help enhance resilience by providing incentives to diversify away from vulnerable sectors, locations

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Concluding messages

1. We need to act– Climate action is critical for development – we can no longer fight poverty

without addressing climate change in core development activities– Adaptation in Africa could cost 5-10% of GDP, but is still likely to be less than

the cost of inaction

2. We need to improve knowledge– On impacts, to prioritize action– On adaptation options, to optimize funds

3. We need to scale up efforts– Adaptation needs exceed current resource flows to Africa– Development partners need to help upscale concessional/grant funding– Private sector can play important role– Policies can help reduce vulnerability

4. World Bank is ready to help on all fronts