Integrating Enrolment and Budget Planning: Creating SEM Decision Packages Canadian SEM Summit Vancouver, BC May 14, 2009

Integrating Enrolment and Budget Planning:

Creating SEM Decision Packages

Canadian SEM SummitVancouver, BCMay 14, 2009

Canadian SEM Summit • Vancouver, BC • May 14, 2009 2

The SEM Plan


Challenges with Traditional SEM Plans

Comprehensive to a fault Lose potential allies in the details Focus on planning rather than doing Too often sit on the shelf


Let’s Change the Paradigm

Focus on what matters most to decision makers Extend the planning horizon Do our homework Hold ourselves accountable


Creating a SEM Decision Package

Physical Capacity

Undergrad/Grad

Residency

Program Capacity

Special Skills

AcademicProfiles

Majors

Ethnicity

InstitutionalMission

Phase 1: Identify specific enrollment goals



Phase 2: Identify enrollment investments and measureable outcomes– Recruitment

– Retention

– Infrastructure

– Beyond enrollment service units


SEM Decision Package Budget

Initiative Investments

Year 1 2 3 4Retention programs

Retention audit 50,000 Program enhancements 25,000 65,000 95,000 7,000

Admissions Office

Predictive modeling 40,000 OSU Nights 10 5000 10,000 15,000 20,000Hosting HS Counselors 15,000 15,000 10,000 20,000Increase names purchase 5,000 5,000 5,000 OOS travel 10,000 10,000 International travel Additional recruitment materials/postage 10,000 10,000 15,000

Classified staff: OS2 (Recruitment support) 2.0 FTE 40,500 Assistant Director (Coordinate non-resident recruiting) 2.0 FTE 72,500

Admission Counselor (Added travel and programs) 59,400

Technology Infrastructure

Web Services Manager (Enhance EM web services, incl. scholarship site) 1.0 FTE 87,000 Web assistant Web search services (e.g., Hobsons) 20,000

Outsourced systems maintenance (e.g., Document Management) 25,000

Financial Aid & Scholarships Office

Leveraging analysis 45,000 University Scholars Program 10,000 10,000 30,000

Classified staff: Adm Svcs (Develop and maintain Web information) 1.0 FTE 48,000

Classified staff: OS2 (Relieve severe understaffing, enhance service) 1.0 FTE 40,500

Assistant Director (Relieve severe understaffing, enhance service) 1.0 FTE 72,500

Student Orientation and Retention Programs Additional out-of-state START programs 4 15000 15,000 15,000 15,000 Increased program participation 10,000 10,000 10,000New parent programs 10,000 10,000

Classified staff: OS2 (Develop and maintain Web information) 1.0 FTE Program Coordinator

Assistant Director (Coordinate out-of-state START programs, 1.0 FTE 72,500 oversee parent programs)

Marketing

Advertising to support recruitng activities 50,000 50,000 100,000

Market research, required to develop effective advertising 25,000 10,000

Nonrecurring expense New staff set-up 5000 15,000 20,000 5,000Document Management 260,000 340,000

TOTALS Recurring Investments 482,500 481,000 300,000 156,400

Nonrecurring Investments 15,000 20,000 200,000 345,000

FY Total 497,500 501,000 500,000 501,400

CUMULATIVE 497,500 998,500 1,498,500 1,999,900



Phase 3: Identify Measureable outcomes– Enrollment

– Gross revenue

– Net revenue


10 Year Enrollment Planning Scenarios Model Assumptions SummaryOregon State University All dates reference Fall term calendar years.

DRIVER STEADY STATE GROWTH CAPACITY

State Appropriations RAM funding per resident FTE increases by 3% Per Biennium (begins 2005)

Resident Enrollments <1% increase by 2014 Maintain 7.5% market share 14% increase over 2003, by 2014 % of matriculants in 2014 88% 82% 80%

Nonresident Enrollments Fixed at reduced 2004 level +25/year from 2004 base +43/year from 2003 base % of matriculants in 2014 11% 16% 18%

International Enrollments Fixed at reduced 2004 level +6/year from 2004 base +7 - 8/year from 2003 base % of matriculants in 2014 0.5% 2% 2%

Graduate Enrollments Fixed at reduced 2005 level 4,196 by 2014 4,196 by 2014 % of student body in 2014 15% 20% 18%

First Professional Enrollments % of student body in 2014

3% 2% 2%

2014 Enrollments (compared to 2003) 16,432 (9.8% reduction) 21,126 (16.0% increase) 22,500 (23.5% increase)

Graduate and Professional tuition revenues and remissions are not included in

the accompanying net revenue analyses.



Phase 4: Track Enrollment, Net Revenue, and Institutional Budget Outcomes


Enrollment OutcomesS c e n a r io 2 - In c re a s e T o ta l S tu d e n t E n ro llm e n ts

A C T U A L P R O J E C T E D

F A L L H E A D C O U N T 2 0 0 3 -0 4 2 0 0 4 -0 5 2 0 0 5 -0 6 2 0 0 6 -0 7 2 0 0 7 -0 8 2 0 0 8 -0 9 2 0 0 9 -1 0 2 0 1 0 -1 1 2 0 1 1 -1 2 2 0 1 2 -1 3 2 0 1 3 -1 4 2 0 1 4 -1 5

N e w M a tr ic u la n tsU G - R e s id e n t 2 , 6 3 6 2 , 2 4 1 2 , 3 4 0 2 , 4 6 4 2 , 5 9 2 2 , 7 9 8 2 , 8 3 1 2 , 8 4 5 2 , 8 3 5 2 , 8 4 9 2 , 9 2 4 2 , 9 8 8

U G - N o n -R e s id e n t 3 7 3 3 1 7 3 4 2 3 6 7 3 9 2 4 1 7 4 4 2 4 6 7 4 9 2 5 1 7 5 4 2 5 6 7

U G - In t e rn a t io n a l 1 7 1 4 2 0 2 6 3 2 3 8 4 4 5 0 5 6 6 2 6 8 7 4

N e w F r e sh m e n 3 , 0 2 6 2 , 5 7 2 2 , 7 0 2 2 , 8 5 7 3 , 0 1 6 3 , 2 5 3 3 , 3 1 7 3 , 3 6 2 3 , 3 8 3 3 , 4 2 8 3 , 5 3 4 3 , 6 2 9

O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 1 5 . 0 % ) 5 . 1 % 5 . 7 % 5 . 6 % 7 . 9 % 2 . 0 % 1 . 4 % 0 . 6 % 1 . 3 % 3 . 1 % 2 . 7 %

C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 1 5 . 0 % ) ( 1 0 . 7 % ) ( 5 . 6 % ) ( . 3 % ) 7 . 5 % 9 . 6 % 1 1 . 1 % 1 1 . 8 % 1 3 . 3 % 1 6 . 8 % 1 9 . 9 %

N e w T ra n s fe rs 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0

C o n t in u in g 1 s t Y r 5 6 0 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 2 9 5 6 0 5 9 2 6 3 9 6 5 3 6 6 3 6 6 8 6 7 8 6 9 9

T o ta l F r e sh m e n 3 , 6 3 6 3 , 2 1 3 3 , 3 4 3 3 , 4 3 6 3 , 6 2 6 3 , 8 9 5 4 , 0 0 6 4 , 0 6 5 4 , 0 9 6 4 , 1 4 6 4 , 2 6 2 4 , 3 7 8

O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 1 1 . 6 % ) 4 . 0 % 2 . 8 % 5 . 5 % 7 . 4 % 2 . 8 % 1 . 5 % 0 . 8 % 1 . 2 % 2 . 8 % 2 . 7 %

C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 1 1 . 6 % ) ( 8 . 1 % ) ( 5 . 5 % ) ( . 3 % ) 7 . 1 % 1 0 . 2 % 1 1 . 8 % 1 2 . 7 % 1 4 . 0 % 1 7 . 2 % 2 0 . 4 %

T o ta l H e a d co u n ts To t a l U G - R e s 1 3 , 2 6 4 1 2 , 9 4 2 1 2 , 3 8 7 1 1 , 6 8 2 1 1 , 5 0 1 1 1 , 7 1 4 1 2 , 1 8 8 1 2 , 6 6 4 1 3 , 0 1 9 1 3 , 1 5 3 1 3 , 2 8 7 1 3 , 6 7 9

To t a l U G - N o n -R e s 1 , 8 4 1 1 , 7 6 5 1 , 8 6 3 1 , 9 6 1 2 , 0 6 0 2 , 1 5 8 2 , 2 5 6 2 , 3 5 4 2 , 4 5 2 2 , 5 5 1 2 , 6 4 9 2 , 7 4 7

T o ta l U n d e r g r a d 1 5 , 1 0 5 1 4 , 7 0 7 1 4 , 2 5 0 1 3 , 6 4 3 1 3 , 5 6 1 1 3 , 8 7 2 1 4 , 4 4 4 1 5 , 0 1 8 1 5 , 4 7 1 1 5 , 7 0 4 1 5 , 9 3 6 1 6 , 4 2 6

O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 2 . 6 % ) ( 3 . 1 % ) ( 4 . 3 % ) ( . 6 % ) 2 . 3 % 4 . 1 % 4 . 0 % 3 . 0 % 1 . 5 % 1 . 5 % 3 . 1 %

C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 2 . 6 % ) ( 5 . 7 % ) ( 9 . 7 % ) ( 1 0 . 2 % ) ( 8 . 2 % ) ( 4 . 4 % ) ( . 6 % ) 2 . 4 % 4 . 0 % 5 . 5 % 8 . 7 %

G ra d u a t e s 2 , 7 1 6 2 , 5 8 6 2 , 7 1 1 2 , 8 7 6 3 , 0 4 1 3 , 2 0 6 3 , 3 7 1 3 , 5 3 6 3 , 7 0 1 3 , 8 6 6 4 , 0 3 1 4 , 1 9 6

F irs t P ro fe s s io n a l 3 9 2 4 3 2 4 5 6 4 9 2 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4 5 0 4

T o ta l G r a d & P r o f 3 , 1 0 8 3 , 0 1 8 3 , 1 6 7 3 , 3 6 8 3 , 5 4 5 3 , 7 1 0 3 , 8 7 5 4 , 0 4 0 4 , 2 0 5 4 , 3 7 0 4 , 5 3 5 4 , 7 0 0

O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 2 . 9 % ) 4 . 9 % 6 . 3 % 5 . 3 % 4 . 7 % 4 . 4 % 4 . 3 % 4 . 1 % 3 . 9 % 3 . 8 % 3 . 6 %

C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 2 . 9 % ) 1 . 9 % 8 . 4 % 1 4 . 1 % 1 9 . 4 % 2 4 . 7 % 3 0 . 0 % 3 5 . 3 % 4 0 . 6 % 4 5 . 9 % 5 1 . 2 %

T o ta l S tu d e n t H C 1 8 , 2 1 3 1 7 , 7 2 5 1 7 , 4 1 7 1 7 , 0 1 1 1 7 , 1 0 6 1 7 , 5 8 2 1 8 , 3 1 9 1 9 , 0 5 8 1 9 , 6 7 6 2 0 , 0 7 4 2 0 , 4 7 1 2 1 , 1 2 6

O n e -Y e a r C h a n g e ( 2 . 7 % ) ( 1 . 7 % ) ( 2 . 3 % ) 0 . 6 % 2 . 8 % 4 . 2 % 4 . 0 % 3 . 2 % 2 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 3 . 2 %

C h a n g e fro m B a s e Y e a r ( 2 . 7 % ) ( 4 . 4 % ) ( 6 . 6 % ) ( 6 . 1 % ) ( 3 . 5 % ) 0 . 6 % 4 . 6 % 8 . 0 % 1 0 . 2 % 1 2 . 4 % 1 6 . 0 %

O n e Y e a r C h a n g e i n H e a d C o u n t (4 8 8 ) (3 0 8 ) (4 0 6 ) + 9 4 + 4 7 6 + 7 3 7 + 7 3 9 + 6 1 8 + 3 9 7 + 3 9 7 + 6 5 5

C u m u l a ti v e C h a n g e i n H e a d C o u n t (4 8 8 ) (7 9 6 ) (1 , 2 0 2 ) (1 , 1 0 7 ) (6 3 1 ) + 1 0 6 + 8 4 5 + 1 , 4 6 3 + 1 , 8 6 1 + 2 , 2 5 8 + 2 , 9 1 3

In c lu d e s p ro je c tio n s fo r o n -c a m p u s s tu d e n ts e n ro l l i n g in E c a m p u s ; e xc lu d e s s tu d e n ts e n ro l le d e xc lu s ive ly in E C a m p u s p ro g ra m s .


Financial OutcomesScenario Summary - Net Revenue by Fiscal Year State Support at FY05 Levels + 3% Per Biennium(Thousands) 1 New Faculty Member for Each 20 Students Beyond FY04 Base

STEADY STATE GROWTH CAPACITY1 Year Chg New Base 1 Year Chg New Base 1 Year Chg New Base

2009Revenue increase (decrease) ( 595) ( 139) 2,329 9,528 3,382 18,925State Support increase (decrease) ( 381) ( 1,467) 731 1,143 655 6,411(less) Recruiting/Retention costs - - ( 32) ( 1,632) ( 40) ( 2,040)

Net Revenue ( 976) ( 1,606) 3,028 9,039 3,997 23,296(less) New instructional costs - - - - ( 4,616) ( 10,694)

Net gain (loss) ( 976) ( 1,606) 3,028 9,039 ( 619) 12,602Headcount change (151) (2,609) 476 (632) 545 1,215

2010Revenue increase (decrease) 2,941 2,802 5,511 15,039 5,944 24,869State Support increase (decrease) 1,885 418 2,882 4,025 2,039 8,450(less) Recruiting/Retention costs - - ( 33) ( 1,665) ( 41) ( 2,081)

Net Revenue 4,826 3,220 8,360 17,399 7,942 31,238(less) New instructional costs - - ( 1,012) ( 1,012) ( 4,765) ( 15,459)

Net gain (loss) 4,826 3,220 7,348 16,387 3,177 15,779Headcount change 215 (2,394) 737 105 545 1,760

2011Revenue increase (decrease) 569 3,371 3,015 18,054 3,111 27,980State Support increase (decrease) 559 977 1,683 5,708 675 9,125(less) Recruiting/Retention costs - - ( 33) ( 1,698) ( 42) ( 2,123)


Net gain (loss) 1,128 4,348 ( 2,493) 13,894 ( 1,110) 14,669Headcount change 158 (2,236) 739 844 545 2,305

2012Revenue increase (decrease) 2,398 5,769 5,289 23,343 6,199 34,179State Support increase (decrease) 1,460 2,437 2,636 8,344 2,141 11,266(less) Recruiting/Retention costs - - ( 34) ( 1,732) ( 42) ( 2,165)


Net gain (loss) 3,858 8,206 2,450 16,344 3,346 18,015Headcount change 71 (2,165) 618 1,462 545 2,850



Phase 5: Create Reinvestment Strategies– Enrollment

– Gross revenue

– Net revenue


Costs and Reinvestments 10 Year Enrollment Planning Scenarios Model Assumptions SummaryOregon State University All dates reference Fall term calendar years.

DRIVER STEADY STATE GROWTH CAPACITY

Tuition Rates Graduate: No changeRes-UG incr 5% 2004; Res/Non-Res UG incr 5% every 2 years beginning in 2007

Tuition Plateau Changes Undergrad only: $25 increase per year to reach full per hour charge

eCampus Enrollment Overlap 15% annual increase per year

Tuition Remissions (undergraduate) Discount rate increases by tuition rate + 3% (to 18.2% in 2014 from 12.8% in 2003)

New Instructional Costs None

New Recruiting & Retention Costs None $400K per year, to $1.6 million $500K per year, to $2.0 million+ 2% per year thereafter + 2% per year thereafter

Retention increases 0.5%/year Retention increases 0.5%/year

New Faculty Additions - 146 214 Base Change in Gross Revenues +$8.8 million +$31.9 million +$46.4 million Base Change in State Support +$5.1 million +$12.2 million +$14.9 million New Instructional Costs - +$27.5 million +$38.6 million Base Change in Net Revenues +$13.9 million +$14.8 million +$20.4 million

$8,700 per student student FTE + 2% inflation per year

Financial Outcomes in Fiscal 2015

1 Tenure Track Faculty Addition per 20 New Students

Faculty additions based on total enrollments; revenues based on undergrad only.

Thank you!

Bob [email protected]

Documents

Integrating Enrolment and Budget Planning: Creating SEM Decision Packages Canadian SEM Summit Vancouver, BC May 14, 2009