Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in Sustainable Energy Solutions

Exploratory Workshop on:Scientifically Challenges of Tomorrows Energy September 22nd 23rd, 2010Politehnica University of BucharestIntegration of Renewable Energy Sources in Sustainable Energy Solutions Prof. Eden MamutOvidius University of Constantza, Romania

CENTER FOR ADVANCED ENGINEERING SCIENCESAim: To develop a resource of excellence for the Black Sea Region specialized in advanced engineeringFunctions: Research & Engineering, Graduate Programs, Technology transfer, Consultancy, Training & Networking Structure: Industry Consortium, International Steering Committee, President, Director, Full-time Research Staff, Project Based Teams, Graduate StudentsResearch Area: Applied Thermodynamics, Advanced Energy Systems, CFD, CAD/CAM/CAE & Remote EngineeringPrograms:Multi-Scale EngineeringAdvanced Energy SystemsHighly Engineered MaterialsSustainable Transport Systems

President: Prof. Adrian BEJAN, Pioneered numerous original methods in thermal sciences, such as entropy generation minimization, scale analysis of fluid flow and convection, and the constructal law of design in nature Adrian Bejan is ranked among the 100 most-cited authors in all of engineering (all fields, all countries, living or deceased) by the Institute of Scientific Information CAES Team

Rationale

Sustainable Development

Black Sea Universities Network

Multiscale & Multicriteria approach on sustainability

Effective projects

CAES ContributionOUTLINE

1. Pre Industrial Phase [c. 3 000 000 BC to 1765] A - Tool making (c. 3 000 000 BC); B - Fire used (c. 1 000 000 BC); C - Neolithic agricultural revolution (c. 8 000 BC); D - Watts steam engine of 1765 starting the Industrial Phase (1930-2025) 2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated]E - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value; F - Peak energy-use; G - Present energy-use; H - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value3. Post Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond]J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail. 2008 AssessmentDuncan, R. C. (1989). Evolution, technology, and the natural environment: A unified theory of human history. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting, American Society of Engineering Educators: Science, Technology, & Society, 14B1-11 to 14B1-20The Olduvai Theory of Industrial CivilizationThe transient-pulse theory

My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son shall ride a camel!

AND A SAUDI SAYING

CLIMATE CHANGE I

CLIMATE CHANGE II

CLIMATE CHANGE III

CLIMATE CHANGE IV

CLIMATE CHANGE V

CLIMATE CHANGE VII

Sustainable Development: to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of the future generations to meet their own needs

Strategy Mix:

efficiency enhanced productivity / resourceconsistency enhanced economies embedded in the natural cyclessufficiency new concept of prosperity / satisfaction / material wealth

Management rules:

the use of renewable natural resources must not exceed their regeneration ratesthe use of non-renewable natural resources must not exceed the rate of substituting their respective functionsthe emissions of pollutants must not exceed natures capability to adaptSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The concept of noosphere (nous mind, sphere the Earths cover) V. Vernadsky, Sorbonne, 1922

Noosphere - the modern stage of the biosphere development (environment) connected with the active role of the Homo sapiens Edward Le Roy, 1927 .

The theory connecting natural sciences (biospherology) with social science. Pierre de Chardin, 1928

Transition from One-Dimensional Development to its Harmonization with Respect to Three (Four) constituents: {Economic; Ecological; Social} The beginning of the process - 1970s.{Economic; Ecological; Social; Institutional} 1996, Commission on Sust. Dev.,United Nations.THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

System coordination of economic, ecological and human development in such a way that from one generation to the other the quality and safety of life should not decrease, the environmental conditions should not worsen and the social progress should meet the needs of every person

Vladimir Vernadsky, 1947THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Multidimensions:

Economical;Ecological;Social & Institutional.

Multicriteria:

Economical: Growth competitiveness index, Economic freedom index;Ecological: Environmental sustainability index;Social & Institutional: Quality of life index, Human development index, Knowledge society index.

DIMENSIONS & SCALES

Multiscales:

Energy system;

Local cluster of end-users

Urban / Rural agglomeration;

Sub-region;

Country;

Region.DIMENSIONS & SCALES

CLASSICAL APPROACH IN MODELLINGGeneral Laws of Thermodynamics & Particular ConditionsProcess DecompositionGlobal (lumped) & Local (distributed) Process Parameters

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODELINGMulti-dimensional models or multi-scale as well as the integrated multi-phenomenological models or multi- physics have been developed in time, covering today a large number of applications including the materials science, the nano/microelectronics, the ecological reconstruction, the deactivation of the atomic armament and biotechnologies.

The multi-dimensional modeling approaches (MMD) can be grouped in the following generic categories:-MMD with the transfer of the parameters which integrates two or more models associated to different dimensional and/or temporal scales and the resulted parameters based on a model are used as input data for the other models; -MMD with simultaneously solved multi-dimensional models (in the way used in Concurrent Engineering) which integrates more mutual influenced models which leads to the necessity of simultaneous simulations with mutual data exchange protocols; -MMD unitary integrated consisting of the use of a mathematical device that includes terms associated to different dimensional and/or temporal scales in a unitary configuration.

PARADIGM SHIFT

BLACK SEA REGION

BSR GROWTH

Albania

Basic Macroeconomic Indicators at a Glance

199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008

1Population (Million)3.13.13.13.13.13.063.073.083.093.113.133.153.173.18

2Avg Exch. Rate (Lek/ US$)92.7104.5148.9150.6137.7143.7143.5140.2121.9102.899.998.191.991.5

3Inflation (CPI Avg.)7.8%12.7%33.2%20.6%0.4%0.1%3.1%5.2%2.2%3.0%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.5%

4Average monthly wages (US$)69.182.764.276.492.3104.1120.0140.3175.0237.3268.4320.1

5GDP (Lek million)229,793346,403346,198409,209471,578523,043583,369622,711694,098751,024817,374899,727984,1251,063,068

6GDP US$ million2,479.03,314.92,324.52,716.63,424.93,639.64,065.74,443.05,695.77,307.18,184.49,171.210,708.511,618.1

7GDP per capita (US$)791.21,068.0754.1885.01,118.11,188.71,325.91,443.61,841.12,348.32,615.12,911.53,378.13,653.5

8Real GDP growth, %8.9%9.1%-10.8%9.0%13.5%6.7%7.9%4.2%5.8%5.7%5.8%5.0%6.0%6.0%

9Official Unemployment (end of period) %13.1%12.4%14.9%17.8%18.4%16.8%16.4%15.8%15.0%14.4%14.1%13.9%

10Industrial Production Growth, %2.8%13.6%-5.6%4.1%6.4%5.0%6.5%7.0%5.0%5.0%4.5%4.0%5.0%5.0%

11Agricultural Production Growth %13.0%10.0%1.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%3.2%2.1%3.0%3.0%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.0%

12Domestic Credit Growth %-9.6%46.6%42.2%20.2%9.8%8.6%7.5%7.0%8.8%8.9%16.7%16.5%15.0%6.5%

13Domestic Credit/ GDP37.2%36.2%51.5%52.4%49.9%48.8%47.1%47.2%46.1%46.4%49.7%52.6%55.3%54.6%

14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million70.090.147.545.041.2143.0207.3135.0178.0341.3262.5325.26400.00400.00

15FDI/ GDP2.8%2.7%2.0%1.7%1.2%3.9%5.1%3.0%3.1%4.7%3.2%3.5%3.7%3.4%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-10.2%-10.4%-12.7%-11.8%-9.0%-7.6%-6.9%-6.1%-4.9%-5.1%-3.4%-3.2%-3.9%-4.0%

17787.0845.0877.01,007.01,109.01,173.01,199.01,183.01,389.81,644.11,702.3

18Public External Debt/GDP31.7%25.5%37.7%37.1%32.4%32.2%29.5%26.6%24.4%22.5%20.8%

19Exports- $US million (Goods)204.9243.7158.6208.0275.0255.7304.5330.2447.2603.3656.3792.9971.71,131.8

20Imports- $US million (Goods)679.7922.0693.6811.7938.01,070.01,331.61,485.41,783.52,194.92,477.62,915.63,323.73,584.4

21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)-474.8-678.3-535.0-603.6-663.0-814.3-1,027.1-1,155.2-1,336.3-1,591.6-1,821.3-2,122.7-2,352.0-2,452.6

22Trade Balance/ GDP-19.2%-20.5%-23.0%-22.2%-19.4%-22.4%-25.3%-26.0%-23.5%-21.8%-22.3%-23.1%-22.0%-21.1%

23Current Account Balance $US mn-11.5-107.3-272.2-65.1-155.4-156.3-217.3-407.5-406.8-357.9-571.5-670.9-796.7-811.4

24Current Acct. Bal./ GDP-0.5%-3.2%-11.7%-2.4%-4.5%-4.3%-5.3%-9.2%-7.1%-4.9%-7.0%-7.3%-7.4%-7.0%

25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m241.1280.9308.9384.2488.3615.7739.9838.81,009.41,357.61,404.91,768.81,945.22,045.7

Domestic Credit/ GDP37.2%36.2%51.5%52.4%49.9%48.8%47.1%47.2%46.1%46.4%49.7%52.6%55.3%54.6%

Domestic Credit Growth46.6%42.2%20.2%9.8%8.6%7.5%7.0%8.8%8.9%16.7%16.5%15.0%6.5%

Domestic Credit Lek Billion85.5125.3178.2214.3235.3255.4274.6293.9319.8348.2406.5473.5544.7580.3

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

10.09.0%100.072.067.072.582.289.597.690.898.0105.2113.3121.0126.7134.3142.4

20.09.0%-28.0%-7.0%8.3%13.3%8.9%9.1%-7.0%8.0%7.3%7.7%6.8%4.7%6.0%6.0%

30.09.0%

40.09.0%

50.09.0%19.80.6229508197

60.09.0%12.2

70.09.0%

80.09.0%

90.09.0%

EXPORTS OF ALBANIA TO THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES

(current Lek million)

1995199619971998199920002001Proj. 2002

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bulgaria0.00.00.10.00.10.10.0

Georgia0.50.0

Greece26.929.141.239.730.939.818.3

Moldova0.0

Romania0.10.10.30.10.00.00.1

Russia0.10.00.30.40.40.00.0

Turkey6.51.31.11.11.73.11.9

Ukraine0.10.00.00.0

Total33.730.543.641.333.243.120.3

IMPORTS OF ALBANIA FROM THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


1995199619971998199920002001Proj. 2002

Armenia0.2

Azerbaijan0.00.8

Bulgaria35.418.222.126.726.828.616.7

Georgia0.00.00.20.20.0

Greece187.9170.4236.7264.9304.8382.6177.5

Moldova0.40.30.70.50.00.50.2

Romania22.51.93.46.36.212.84.1

Russia2.10.46.33.517.116.114.1

Turkey39.428.928.052.059.481.941.3

Ukraine3.52.65.36.32.713.36.9

Total291.1222.7302.5360.4417.4536.7260.9

TRADE BALANCE OF ALBANIA WITH THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


1995199619971998199920002001Proj. 2002

Armenia0.00.00.00.0-0.20.00.0

Azerbaijan0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.80.0

Bulgaria-35.4-18.2-22.0-26.7-26.7-28.5-16.7

Georgia-0.0-0.00.5-0.2-0.2-0.00.0

Greece-161.0-141.3-195.6-225.2-273.8-342.8-159.2

Moldova-0.4-0.3-0.7-0.5-0.0-0.5-0.2

Romania-22.3-1.8-3.1-6.2-6.2-12.8-4.1

Russia-2.0-0.4-6.0-3.1-16.7-16.0-14.1

Turkey-32.9-27.6-26.8-50.8-57.7-78.8-39.4

Ukraine-3.5-2.6-5.2-6.3-2.7-13.3-6.9

Total-257.4-192.3-258.9-319.0-384.2-493.6-240.6

&C&A

Albania

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Albania GDP Growth 1995-2003

Armenia


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Dram/ US$)405.9414.0490.8504.9535.1539.5555.1573.4578.8533.5457.7416.0352.0327.6

3Inflation (CPI Avg.)176.0%18.7%14.0%8.7%0.6%-0.8%3.1%1.1%4.7%7.0%0.6%2.9%4.0%3.6%


5GDP (Dram billion)522.3661.2804.3955.4987.41,031.31,175.91,362.51,624.61,907.92,242.92,657.13,118.23,492.5

6GDP US$ million1,286.61,597.01,638.71,892.21,845.51,911.62,118.42,376.32,807.13,576.64,900.56,386.78,858.210,659.9

7GDP per capita (US$)394.6491.6504.8584.3571.0592.4659.3739.6874.41,113.41,523.91,983.92,748.73,565.2

8Real GDP growth, %6.9%5.9%3.3%7.3%3.3%5.9%9.6%13.2%14.0%10.5%13.9%13.3%10.0%7.5%75.2%8.5%


10Industrial Production Growth, %1.5%1.4%1.0%-2.1%5.3%6.4%5.3%14.6%15.6%2.4%7.5%-0.9%193.2%

11Agricultural Production Growth %4.7%1.8%-5.9%13.1%1.3%-2.5%11.6%4.4%4.3%14.5%11.2%0.4%4.5%4.5%

12Domestic Credit Growth %68.0%26.0%6.9%59.9%3.5%12.2%-7.8%-8.4%-10.1%41.2%54.6%8.7%38.5%13.7%


14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million25.317.651.9220.8122.0104.269.9110.7120.9218.8258.2290.8

15FDI/ GDP2.0%1.1%3.2%11.7%6.6%5.5%3.3%4.7%4.3%6.1%5.3%4.6%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-9.0%-8.5%-5.8%-4.9%-7.2%-4.8%-4.2%-2.5%-1.3%-1.5%-1.7%-1.5%-2.3%-2.5%25%0.46055684450.2030162413

17298.0403.0484.0569.0651.0715.0817.0875.01,097.71,109.01,229.01,280.01,367.022%

18Public External Debt/GDP23.2%25.2%29.5%30.1%35.3%37.4%38.6%36.8%39.1%31.0%25.1%20.0%15.4%

19Exports- $US million (Goods)270.9290.4233.6228.9247.3309.9353.1513.8696.1738.31004.91037.51042.81105.63.9544041451

20Imports- $US million (Goods)673.9759.6793.1806.3721.4773.4773.3882.61130.21196.31592.81916.01948.22151.80.0%

21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)-403.0-469.2-559.5-577.4-474.0-463.5-420.2-368.8-434.1-458.0-587.9-878.6-905.4-1046.20.0%




25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m99.6155.7228.8280.7290.9302.0317.2415.6502.0547.8669.51,071.91,208.71,429.2


Domestic Credit Growth68.0%26.0%6.9%59.9%3.5%12.2%-7.8%-8.4%-10.1%41.2%54.6%8.7%38.5%13.7%

Domestic Credit Dram Million47,610.059,975.564,121.1102,516.0106,150.0119,094.0109,767.0100,523.090,321.7127,531.0197,126.0214,196.0296,731.0337,431.0

Table 2: Trade Data for Armenia With Other BSEC Members

EXPORTS OF ARMENIA TO THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES

(current $US million)

19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003

Albania0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Azerbaijan0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Bulgaria1.00.00.10.20.51.00.90.70.31.61.5

Georgia3.22.92.76.910.79.611.116.012.416.618.7

Greece0.00.00.10.50.20.20.23.02.01.25.2

Moldova0.10.00.00.10.20.00.20.10.20.10.1

Romania0.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.40.00.10.0

Russia58.583.990.896.162.940.033.944.660.564.694.4

Turkey0.30.22.66.07.23.01.11.51.11.41.2

Ukraine4.13.74.54.93.54.02.13.311.08.17.0

Total67.290.7100.8114.885.257.849.569.687.593.7128.1

IMPORTS OF ARMENIA FROM THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES

(current $US millions)

19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003

Albania0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Azerbaijan0.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.00.00.0

Bulgaria0.20.94.614.325.416.212.17.26.449.513.2

Georgia19.517.861.851.238.226.826.919.818.531.533.0

Greece0.00.05.65.310.29.113.054.013.612.230.4

Moldova0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.90.51.32.7

Romania0.00.01.44.81.41.00.50.30.27.20.3

Russia77.9112.2135.1125.5215.9191.4149.9137.2173.6192.9203.4

Turkey0.00.52.36.338.456.840.240.533.838.236.7

Ukraine4.05.35.412.011.68.97.912.322.145.734.6

Total101.7136.8216.3219.5341.3310.3250.6272.2268.7378.5354.3

TRADE BALANCE OF ARMENIA WITH THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003

Albania0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Azerbaijan0.00.00.00.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0

Bulgaria0.8-0.9-4.5-14.1-24.9-15.2-11.2-6.5-6.1-47.9-11.7

Georgia-16.3-14.9-59.1-44.3-27.5-17.2-15.8-3.8-6.1-14.9-14.3

Greece0.00.0-5.5-4.8-10.0-8.9-12.8-51.0-11.6-11.0-25.2

Moldova0.0-0.1-0.10.00.1-0.10.1-0.8-0.3-1.2-2.6

Romania0.00.0-1.4-4.7-1.4-1.0-0.50.1-0.2-7.1-0.3

Russia-19.4-28.3-44.3-29.4-153.0-151.4-116.0-92.6-113.1-128.3-109.0

Turkey0.3-0.30.3-0.3-31.2-53.8-39.1-39.0-32.7-36.8-35.5

Ukraine0.1-1.6-0.9-7.1-8.1-4.9-5.8-9.0-11.1-37.6-27.6

Total-34.5-46.1-115.5-104.7-256.1-252.5-201.1-202.6-181.2-284.8-226.2

USSR Recovery Collapse Analysis

Size of Maximum Output Decline (1989= 100)34.9in 1993

Lowest Point:1999

1994199436.785.4%7.5%

1995199539.326.9%

1996199641.645.9%

1997199743.023.3%

1998199846.167.3%

1999199947.683.3%

2000200050.495.9%

2001200155.349.6%

2002200262.6513.2%

2003200371.4214.0%

2004200478.9210.5%

1200589.8813.9%12.2%

22006101.8413.3%

32007112.0210.0%

42008123.2310.0%

52009135.5510.0%

62010149.1010.0%

72011164.0110.0%

82012180.4110.0%

EGPRSP Export & Import Projections

20022003200420052006200920122015

Exports6997688409201007131317042210

Imports10821170125613541460181422162751

Export Growth9.9%9.4%9.5%9.5%9.2%9.1%9.1%

Import Growth8.1%7.4%7.8%7.8%7.5%6.9%7.5%

GOODS

Exports519583639701767100512931662

Imports872945101210911176145217812225

Export Growth12.3%9.6%9.7%9.4%9.4%8.8%8.7%

Import Growth8.4%7.1%7.8%7.8%7.3%7.0%7.7%

2002200320042005

Actual Export Growth45.5%35.5%6.1%36.1%

Actual Import Growth14.1%28.1%5.8%33.1%

&C&A

Armenia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Armenia GDP Growth 1995-2003

Azerbaijan


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Manat/ US$)0.8830.8600.7970.7740.8240.8950.9310.9720.9820.9830.9450.8930.8570.824

3Inflation (CPI Avg.)411.8%19.9%3.7%-0.8%-8.5%1.8%1.5%2.8%2.2%6.7%9.6%8.3%15.5%10.5%


5GDP (Manat million)2,133.82,732.63,158.33,440.63,775.14,718.15,315.66,062.57,146.58,530.211,875.617,735.826,276.933,697.8

6GDP US$ million2,417.33,176.63,962.34,446.44,581.25,272.65,707.66,236.17,276.48,680.412,561.219,851.030,647.040,897.1

7GDP per capita (US$)316.3411.1508.0564.5576.0657.7706.3766.0887.11,050.21,504.82,353.03,591.84,701.9

8Real GDP growth, %-11.8%1.3%5.8%10.0%7.4%11.1%9.9%10.6%11.2%7.0%26.4%34.5%28.3%16.0%

9Official Unemployment (end of period) %0.8%0.9%1.0%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.4%1.5%1.4%1.3%1.0%1.0%

10Industrial Production Growth, %-21.4%-6.7%0.3%2.2%3.6%6.9%5.1%3.6%6.1%5.7%33.5%36.6%33.0%18.0%

11Agricultural Production Growth %-7.0%3.0%-6.1%6.2%7.1%12.1%11.1%6.4%5.6%4.6%7.5%

12Domestic Credit Growth %61.3%33.0%15.0%8.8%-10.4%13.5%14.6%2.1%26.1%39.4%50.0%75.4%71.9%43.8%


14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million330.1627.31,114.81,023.0510.3129.9226.51,392.43,285.03,556.11,679.91,500.01,500.01,600.0

15FDI/ GDP13.7%19.7%28.1%23.0%11.1%2.5%4.0%22.3%45.1%41.0%13.4%7.6%4.9%3.9%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-4.9%-2.8%-1.6%-4.1%-5.1%0.4%0.0%-0.4%-1.7%0.8%-2.5%-4.8%-5.3%-2.6%

17206.1247.9237.3314.2528.4761.3805.61,065.21,307.21,405.51,344.21,484.01,810.62,228.8

18Public External Debt/GDP8.5%7.8%6.0%7.1%11.5%14.4%14.1%17.1%18.0%16.2%10.7%7.5%5.9%5.4%

19Exports- $US million (Goods)612.3643.7808.3677.81,025.21,858.32,078.92,304.92,624.63,743.07,649.013,014.619,976.525,685.3

20Imports- $US million (Goods)985.41,337.61,375.21,723.91,433.41,539.01,465.11,823.32,723.13,581.74,349.95,269.36,375.97,332.2

21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)-373.1-693.9-566.9-1,046.2-408.2319.3613.8481.6-98.5161.33,299.17,745.313,600.618,353.1

22Trade Balance/ GDP-15.4%-21.8%-14.3%-23.5%-8.9%6.1%10.8%7.7%-1.4%1.9%26.3%39.0%44.4%44.9%

23Current Account Balance $US mn-400.7-931.2-915.8-1,364.5-599.7-167.8-51.8-768.4-2,020.9-2,589.2167.33,707.68,275.012,329.0

24Current Acct. Bal./ GDP-16.6%-29.3%-23.1%-30.7%-13.1%-3.2%-0.9%-12.3%-27.8%-29.8%1.3%18.7%27.0%30.1%

25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m120.9211.3466.1447.3672.6679.6725.0720.5802.81,075.11,177.72,500.43,500.05,500.0


Domestic Credit Growth33.0%15.0%8.8%-10.4%13.5%14.6%2.1%26.1%39.4%50.0%75.4%71.9%43.8%

Domestic Credit Manat Million267.73356.01409.24445.39399.16453.08519.43530.22668.85932.161,398.282,452.574,216.696,064.71



Lowest Point:1999

1996199632.55-11.8%

1997199732.971.3%

1998199834.885.8%

1999199938.3710.0%

2000200041.217.4%

2001200145.7811.1%

2002200250.329.9%

2003200355.6510.6%

2004200461.8811.2%

2005200566.217.0%

1200683.6926.4%

22007112.5734.5%

32008144.4228.3%

42009154.537.0%

52010165.357.0%

62011176.937.0%

72012189.317.0%

82013202.567.0%

92014216.747.0%

102015231.917.0%

112016248.157.0%

122017265.527.0%

132018284.107.0%

142019303.997.0%

152020325.277.0%

162021348.047.0%

&C&A

Azerbaijan

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Azerbaijan GDP Growth 1995-2007

Bulgaria


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Leva/ US$)0.10.21.71.81.82.12.22.11.71.61.61.61.41.4


4Average monthly wages (US$)108.976.480.6110.7108.0107.4116.8124.2157.6185.4205.8

5GDP (Leva billion)880.31,761.217,432.622,421.123,790.426,752.829,709.232,401.634,627.538,822.642,797.449,090.654,385.958,726.8

6GDP US$ million13,105.79,900.410,364.912,736.712,955.112,599.813,598.715,600.319,984.724,647.627,188.031,483.137,821.841,511.7

7GDP per capita (US$)1,579.61,203.61,269.81,571.41,609.11,575.61,712.21,977.72,551.03,168.03,519.04,131.64,989.75,512.8

8Real GDP growth, %2.9%-9.4%-5.6%4.0%2.3%5.4%4.1%4.5%5.0%6.6%6.2%6.1%5.8%5.7%


10Industrial Production Growth, %5.0%3.1%-9.6%-7.4%-12.9%2.3%2.1%0.6%8.3%18.3%6.7%5.9%5.5%5.1%

11Agricultural Production Growth %16.0%-11.5%13.7%-1.5%2.7%-9.1%-0.1%5.5%-1.0%3.0%-8.6%-1.9%1.0%1.2%

12Domestic Credit Growth %11.4%215.9%89.5%-3.4%3.9%31.0%26.0%27.4%33.9%34.2%33.0%15.3%20.2%9.1%


14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million90.4109.0504.8537.2818.81,001.5812.9904.72,096.72,662.24,252.15,171.73,500.02,250.0

15FDI/ GDP0.7%1.1%4.9%4.2%6.3%7.9%6.0%5.8%10.5%10.8%15.6%16.4%9.3%5.4%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-5.2%-18.9%2.0%1.3%0.2%-0.6%-0.6%-0.6%0.0%1.7%3.2%3.6%2.0%1.4%

179,006.09,396.89,573.79,991.29,454.49,310.78,626.88,330.88,949.58,536.66,684.087,182.50

18Public External Debt/GDP68.7%94.9%92.4%78.4%73.0%73.9%63.4%53.4%44.8%34.6%24.6%22.8%

19Exports- $US million (Goods)5,345.04,890.24,939.64,193.54,006.44,824.65,112.95,354.17,081.49,931.211,754.115,064.119,000.723,009.4

20Imports- $US million (Goods)5,224.04,702.64,559.34,574.25,087.46,000.26,693.47,012.69,657.313,619.117,204.421,873.527,025.432,630.6

21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)121.0187.6380.3-380.7-1,081.0-1,175.6-1,580.5-1,658.5-2,575.9-3,687.9-5,450.3-6,809.4-8,024.7-9,621.3

22Trade Balance/ GDP0.9%1.9%3.7%-3.0%-8.3%-9.3%-11.6%-10.6%-12.9%-15.0%-20.0%-21.6%-21.2%-23.2%

23Current Account Balance $US mn-25.815.7426.9-61.9-652.1-703.1-804.6-319.0-1,022.2-1,671.1-3,244.2-5,009.8-6,365.5-7,537.7

24Current Acct. Bal./ GDP-0.2%0.2%4.1%-0.5%-5.0%-5.6%-5.9%-2.0%-5.1%-6.8%-11.9%-15.9%-16.8%-18.2%

25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m1,236.5483.62,111.52,684.72,892.13,154.93,290.84,407.16,291.08,776.38,040.510,943.012,114.314,462.5


Domestic Credit Growth215.9%89.5%-3.4%3.9%31.0%26.0%27.4%33.9%34.2%33.0%15.3%20.2%9.1%

Domestic Credit Lev Million605.941,914.253,627.303,502.613,640.354,770.176,008.567,656.3510,251.4013,757.4018,299.8021,091.4025,356.5927,664.39

199419951996199719981999200020012002

Inflation calculation61.71100221.612567.043046.373124.753447.113700.853915.87

62.0%121.6%1058.4%18.7%2.6%10.3%7.4%5.8%

GDP Growth Calculation97.1810089.983.7

2.9%-10.1%-6.9%

&C&A

Bulgaria

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Bulgaria GDP Growth 1995-2003

Georgia


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Lari/ US$)1.241.261.301.392.021.982.072.202.151.921.811.781.721.742.15


4Average monthly wages (US$)11.023.032.839.933.336.645.651.758.781.8112.7

5GDP (Lari million)2,432.03,868.54,554.95,022.15,668.76,043.16,674.07,456.08,564.19,824.311,621.013,783.914,900.016,200.0

6GDP US$ million1,961.93,070.23,503.83,613.02,806.33,058.13,219.53,395.83,991.45,125.86,410.97,741.98,662.89,310.3

7GDP per capita (US$)390.0620.3716.5748.0588.3647.9689.4736.6874.41,134.51,432.81,735.91,946.72,092.2

8Real GDP growth, %2.4%11.2%10.5%3.1%2.9%1.8%4.8%5.5%11.1%5.9%9.6%9.4%8.0%8.5%


10Industrial Production Growth, %-13.5%6.8%8.2%-1.8%7.4%10.8%-5.0%7.0%14.8%8.6%16.4%

11Agricultural Production Growth %13.4%6.0%3.9%-3.0%3.7%-12.0%8.2%-1.0%10.8%-5.9%12.2%

12Domestic Credit Growth %n.a.59.9%86.6%33.8%41.0%17.5%2.9%14.1%13.3%8.3%34.4%30.8%23.7%18.6%


14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million33.368.5242.5265.382.3131.1109.8167.4340.1499.1449.81,025.91,350.01,700.0

15FDI/ GDP1.7%2.2%6.9%7.3%2.9%4.3%3.4%4.9%8.5%9.7%7.0%13.3%15.6%18.3%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-8.1%-6.5%-3.9%-4.9%-5.5%-3.4%0.5%-3.3%-2.3%-1.3%-0.2%-0.2%-2.3%-2.1%

171,216.71,357.21,512.41,629.41,676.11,590.21,654.71,776.81,855.71,860.51,737.21,840.01,841.0


19Exports- $US million (Goods)362.6198.8376.5299.9329.5459.0496.1603.3830.61,092.11,472.41,666.52,013.82,348.8

20Imports- $US million (Goods)700.1686.81,162.9994.5863.4970.51,045.61,092.31,468.62,007.72,686.33,685.84,710.65,142.7

21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)-337.5-488.0-786.4-694.6-533.9-511.5-549.5-489.0-638.0-915.5-1,213.9-2,019.3-2,696.9-2,793.8


23Current Account Balance $US mn-404.8-415.4-514.2-275.7-198.4-269.0-211.7-234.2-382.6-423.0-751.9-1,243.4-1,229.0-1,027.2


25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m198.5191.4201.7132.9144.4116.0161.9202.2196.2386.7478.6930.8938.51,066.62.211

2.221



Lari Million196.4314.2586.1784.21,106.01,299.71,337.81,526.11,729.61,873.12,516.63,292.44,074.04,832.0

Lari Billion0.20.30.60.81.11.31.31.51.71.92.53.34.14.82.188



Lowest Point:1999

1995199523.962.4%

1996199626.6511.2%

1997199729.4410.5%

1998199830.363.1%

1999199931.242.9%

2000200031.801.8%

2001200133.324.8%

2002200235.165.5%

2003200339.0611.1%

2004200441.365.9%

1200545.349.6%

2200648.066.0%

3200750.946.0%

4200854.006.0%

5200957.246.0%

6201060.676.0%

7201164.316.0%

8201268.176.0%

9201372.266.0%

10201476.596.0%

11201581.196.0%

12201686.066.0%

13201791.226.0%

14201896.706.0%

152019102.506.0%

162020108.656.0%

EXPORTS OF GEORGIA TO BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


19951996199719981999200020012002200319931994

Albania0.30.00.00.00.10.00.20.00.0

Armenia17.721.018.917.815.013.712.421.030.819.517.8

Azerbaijan12.724.425.118.519.221.310.629.216.7

Bulgaria5.712.28.83.10.42.40.60.10.22.83.8

Greece0.40.41.20.43.06.03.02.90.20.16.5

Moldova0.10.10.30.10.10.20.10.10.2

Romania0.01.80.10.10.30.10.40.11.0

Russia46.956.768.755.244.669.673.561.083.9

Turkey34.125.939.420.337.774.868.753.758.4

Ukraine5.75.48.48.410.911.011.712.730.2

Total123.6147.9170.9123.9131.3199.1181.2180.8221.622.428.1

IMPORTS OF GEORGIA FROM BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


19951996199719981999200020012002200319931994

Albania0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Armenia11.517.221.810.111.813.510.48.611.23.22.9

Azerbaijan47.778.7115.873.541.555.473.279.993.8

Bulgaria28.343.347.227.611.515.510.613.819.310.55.5

Greece10.717.614.415.810.38.64.78.59.41.75.2

Moldova0.20.10.40.30.20.20.20.31.0

Romania30.540.915.219.012.513.316.95.210.5

Russia48.5127.1124.5127.2115.791.991.3121.6161.1

Turkey84.876.6116.898.473.3104.0105.089.7112.1

Ukraine7.638.855.731.227.135.449.559.080.3

Total269.8440.3511.8403.1303.9337.8361.8386.6498.715.413.6

TRADE BALANCE OF GEORGIA WITH BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


19951996199719981999200020012002200319931994

Albania0.30.00.00.00.10.00.20.00.00.00.0

Armenia6.23.8-2.97.73.20.22.012.419.616.314.9

Azerbaijan-35.0-54.3-90.7-55.0-22.3-34.1-62.6-50.7-77.10.00.0

Bulgaria-22.6-31.1-38.4-24.5-11.1-13.1-10.0-13.7-19.1-7.7-1.7

Greece-10.3-17.2-13.2-15.4-7.3-2.6-1.7-5.6-9.2-1.61.3

Moldova-0.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.80.00.0

Romania-30.5-39.1-15.1-18.9-12.2-13.2-16.5-5.1-9.50.00.0

Russia-1.6-70.4-55.8-72.0-71.1-22.3-17.8-60.6-77.20.00.0

Turkey-50.7-50.7-77.4-78.1-35.6-29.2-36.3-36.0-53.70.00.0

Ukraine-1.9-33.4-47.3-22.8-16.2-24.4-37.8-46.3-50.10.00.0

Total-146.2-292.4-340.9-279.2-172.6-138.7-180.6-205.8-277.17.014.5

&C&A

Georgia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Georgia GDP Growth 1995-2003

Greece


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Euro/ US$)0.770.800.890.890.941.081.121.060.890.810.800.800.740.72


4Average monthly wages (US$)

5GDP (Euro million)90,923.499,293.8107,396.8108,724.0117,844.4156,514167,994.0181,003.0196,602.0212,734.0228,156.0245,865.0253,444.0268,980.0

6GDP US$ million117,565.4124,361.7121,339.6121,957.2125,366.4144,618.9150,328.9170,347.7221,890.9264,144.4283,733.8308,433.5344,405.1371,864.8

7GDP per capita (US$)11,028.611,579.311,224.811,219.611,469.913,773.213,647.515,419.020,035.723,800.425,515.928,090.531,338.033,836.7

8Real GDP growth, %2.1%2.4%3.6%3.4%3.4%4.5%4.5%3.9%4.9%4.7%3.7%4.3%3.7%3.2%


10Industrial Production Growth, %2.4%1.3%1.9%9.0%1.9%7.2%-1.8%0.8%0.3%1.2%-0.9%0.5%1.9%1.7%

11Agricultural Production Growth %0.5%0.4%-3.0%-0.2%-4.0%0.6%-2.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%

12Domestic Credit Growth %7.7%0.4%-6.8%5.0%1.5%4.5%26.2%6.9%3.7%9.2%14.6%12.3%6.8%8.3%


14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million1,053.01,058.0984.0700.0567.31,083.41,585.053.11,331.72,105.0657.75,401.36,200.07,500.00

15FDI/ GDP0.9%0.9%0.8%0.6%0.5%0.7%1.1%0.0%0.6%0.8%0.2%1.8%1.8%2.0%


1727,279.028,265.028,514.830,001.531,592.330,119.032,521.04,697.03,817.03,107.93,408.73,321.93,000.03,000.0




21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)-14,425.0-15,505.0-15,375.0-16,633.0-17,950.9-20,238.9-19,087.0-21,455.2-25,605.8-31,621.0-34,252.6-44,284.9-46,565.0-46,861.8


23Current Account Balance $US mn-2,864.0-4,554.0-4,860.0-3,647.0-7,294.9-9,819.7-9,399.9-9,581.6-12,803.5-13,476.1-18,233.2-29,656.3-28,958.7-27,414.0


25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m14,780.017,501.412,594.817,458.418,122.313,424.35,154.28,082.84,361.51,191.0506.4565.881,400.01,200.00


Domestic Credit Growth0.4%-6.8%5.0%1.5%4.5%26.2%6.9%3.7%9.2%14.6%12.3%6.8%8.3%

Euro billion109.9110.3102.8108.0109.6114.6144.58154.54160.33175.15200.81225.51240.87260.74

Non-Euro debt in Euros million3,382.02,503.02,741.02,648.0

Non-Euro debt in US$ million3,817.03,107.93,408.73,321.9

Avg GDr/ $US Rate for 1991-1994

1995199619971998 (f/cast)1999 (planned)1991199219931994

Avg Exch. Rate (GDr/ US$)231.7240.7273.1295.5302182.27190.62229.25242.60

Avg GDr/ $US Rate for 1991-1994

182.27190.62229.25242.6

EXPORTS OF GREECE TO THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES

(current US$ million)

19951996199719981999200020012002200319931994

Albania261.2324.9250.9193.5224.6251.8378.1360.8351.6126.3213.2

Armenia8.74.57.09.511.045.113.214.324.20.13.2

Azerbaijan2.32.417.110.73.53.913.67.611.60.21.5

Bulgaria447.3314.0318.6441.1417.2452.0610.9620.5822.0303.3413.1

Georgia15.218.924.823.610.17.311.317.512.01.75.2

Moldova7.99.89.48.112.914.09.414.69.62.41.7

Romania180.4174.7176.0200.2214.2380.1394.3315.0344.889.393.4

Russia270.0361.4418.3267.9246.0247.8310.5328.4335.9198.7243.1

Turkey221.1354.6435.5343.4337.3543.8377.2389.7528.2148.4138.1

Ukraine103.2138.7130.282.946.141.948.582.658.231.781.4

Total1,517.31,703.91,787.81,580.91,522.91,987.82,167.02,151.02,498.2902.11,193.90

IMPORTS OF GREECE FROM THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


19951996199719981999200020012002200319931994

Albania37.536.936.136.840.140.861.110.819.115.435.3

Armenia0.10.40.20.50.21.01.71.21.100

Azerbaijan1.10.11.90.112.57.012.66.138.80.10

Bulgaria483.7372.7416.1394.0358.5394.6455.8348.1417.3197.6296.2

Georgia5.47.42.56.812.320.412.057.4113.50.16.5

Moldova5.17.07.03.62.42.88.117.515.70.22.9

Romania133.1144.4203.9196.6211.6303.1378.0361.4443.253.593.1

Russia703.0695.3634.4488.4525.01,092.61,764.52,567.32,688.6475.3544.1

Turkey209.1232.9296.6369.2375.6388.0528.8667.2869.1138.3170.1

Ukraine87.5105.058.666.577.5116.0169.6344.0254.13487.8

Total1,665.61,602.11,657.31,562.51,615.72,366.33,392.14,381.14,860.5914.51,236.00

TRADE BALANCE OF GREECE WITH THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


19951996199719981999200020012002200319931994

Albania223.7288.0214.8156.7184.5211.1317.1350.0332.5110.9177.9

Armenia8.64.16.89.010.844.111.513.223.20.13.2

Azerbaijan1.22.315.210.6-9.0-3.11.01.5-27.20.11.4

Bulgaria-36.4-58.7-97.547.158.757.4155.1272.4404.7105.7117

Georgia9.811.522.316.8-2.2-13.1-0.7-39.9-101.51.6-1.3

Moldova2.82.82.44.510.511.21.3-2.9-6.02.1-1.2

Romania47.330.3-27.93.62.677.016.2-46.5-98.335.80.2

Russia-433.0-333.9-216.1-220.5-279.0-844.8-1,454.0-2,239.0-2,352.7-276.6-301

Turkey12.0121.7138.9-25.8-38.3155.8-151.5-277.6-340.910.2-32

Ukraine15.733.771.616.4-31.4-74.1-121.1-261.4-196.0-2.3-6.4

Total-148.3101.8130.518.4-92.8-378.5-1,225.1-2,230.1-2,362.4-12.5-42.1

BSEC Trade Turnover Calculation:3,182.93,306.03,445.13,143.43,138.64,354.15,559.16,532.07,358.71,816.62,429.9

Annual Overall BSEC Trade Growth Rate:31.0%3.9%4.2%-8.8%-0.2%38.7%27.7%17.5%12.7%33.8%

1993-20031995-20031999-2003

BSEC Trade Growth Rate:15.0%11.0%23.7%

check7,358.77,358.77,358.7

134.5%

&C&A

Greece

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Greece GDP Growth 1995-2003

Moldova


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Lei/ US$)4.54.64.65.410.512.412.913.613.912.312.613.112.512.7



5GDP (Lei million)6,479.77,797.68,917.09,122.112,321.616,019.619,051.522,555.927,618.932,031.837,651.944,068.851,584.460,017.9

6GDP US$ million1,441.31,693.51,928.61,698.51,171.71,288.31,480.31,662.11,981.32,597.92,988.33,356.14,118.24,725.8

7GDP per capita (US$)331.3391.4527.3464.6321.0353.9407.2458.2547.6720.1830.0988.41,199.71,401.5

8Real GDP growth, %-1.4%-5.9%1.6%-6.5%-3.4%2.1%6.1%7.8%6.6%7.4%7.5%4.0%6.0%6.2%

9Official Unemployment (end of period) %1.4%1.5%1.5%9.2%11.1%8.5%7.3%6.8%7.9%8.1%7.3%

10Industrial Production Growth, %-4.0%-6.5%0.0%-15.0%-11.6%7.7%13.7%10.8%15.6%8.2%7.0%-6.9%8.0%9.0%

11Agricultural Production Growth %1.9%-11.9%11.4%-11.6%-8.4%-3.3%6.4%3.4%-13.6%20.8%0.8%-4.6%1.8%2.0%

12Domestic Credit Growth %64.7%18.8%26.8%29.2%18.1%14.4%29.6%25.2%24.3%25.8%15.8%30.1%23.2%19.0%


14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million25.923.778.775.537.9127.554.584.173.885.6198.7222.3230.0260.0

15FDI/ GDP1.8%1.4%4.1%4.4%3.2%9.9%3.7%5.1%3.7%3.3%6.6%6.6%5.6%5.5%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-5.8%-9.7%-7.5%-3.3%-3.2%-1.0%-0.0%-0.5%1.6%0.4%1.5%-0.3%-0.2%-0.4%

17683.0846.81,018.71,009.3888.2970.2897.5927.1951.3825.7753.4859.6992.71,278.5


19Exports- $US million (Goods)739.0822.9889.6643.6474.3476.8564.6659.7805.9994.11,104.61,053.51,180.01,260.0

20Imports- $US million (Goods)809.21,082.51,237.61,031.7611.5770.3879.71,037.51,428.11,748.22,296.12,644.43,100.03,450.0

21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)-70.2-259.7-348.0-388.1-137.2-293.6-315.1-377.8-622.2-754.2-1,191.5-1,590.9-1,920.0-2,190.0




25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m257.0312.0366.0143.6185.7222.5228.5268.9302.3470.3597.4775.5900.01,000.0



Domestic Credit Lei Billion1.5361.8252.3142.9913.5334.0405.2366.5578.14810.25211.86915.44419.02822.643



Lowest Point:1999

200031.452.1%

200133.376.1%

200235.977.8%

200338.346.6%

1200441.187.4%

2200544.277.5%

3200647.597.5%

4200751.167.5%

5200854.997.5%

6200959.127.5%19.80.6229508197

7201063.557.5%12.2

8201168.327.5%

9201273.447.5%

10201378.957.5%

11201484.877.5%

12201591.247.5%

13201698.087.5%

142017105.437.5%

152018113.347.5%

EXPORTS OF MOLDOVA TO THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


199519961997199819992000200120022003

Albania0.70.60.80.50.50.00.30.20.5

Armenia2.64.70.20.00.10.20.31.11.0

Azerbaijan5.46.41.50.60.60.40.40.82.2

Bulgaria21.412.410.02.85.33.63.73.46.2

Georgia0.22.73.90.30.00.20.70.41.1

Greece2.74.34.84.65.82.42.73.13.7

Romania103.772.258.860.841.237.837.956.790.2

Russia360.1428.9508.8336.8191.5210.0248.4238.9308.5

Turkey11.59.45.54.72.92.02.34.17.2

Ukraine58.946.549.448.732.635.557.261.456.1

Total567.1588.3643.7459.8280.5292.1353.8370.2476.8

IMPORTS OF MOLDOVA FROM THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


199519961997199819992000200120022003

Albania0.00.00.00.00.00.40.0

Armenia0.10.10.10.00.10.10.00.10.1

Azerbaijan5.54.93.51.50.10.00.10.10.2

Bulgaria31.932.161.629.39.513.620.510.730.1

Georgia0.10.20.30.10.10.10.10.10.1

Greece5.03.48.96.78.415.05.213.311.5

Romania56.065.9101.3112.981.5119.593.690.698.2

Russia278.0321.4333.2233.0138.7119.4144.0153.5183.0

Turkey6.811.313.510.611.818.219.732.748.3

Ukraine228.5261.9211.3151.579.1104.6152.6203.6309.3

Total611.8701.1733.7545.8329.4391.0435.8504.7680.6

TRADE BALANCE OF MOLDOVA WITH THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


199519961997199819992000200120022003

Albania0.70.50.80.50.5-0.30.30.20.5

Armenia2.64.60.1-0.0-0.10.00.31.01.0

Azerbaijan-0.21.5-2.1-1.00.50.40.40.72.0

Bulgaria-10.5-19.6-51.6-26.5-4.2-10.0-16.8-7.3-24.0

Georgia0.12.63.60.1-0.10.10.60.31.0

Greece-2.30.9-4.1-2.1-2.6-12.6-2.5-10.2-7.7

Romania47.76.3-42.5-52.1-40.3-81.7-55.7-33.9-8.0

Russia82.1107.5175.6103.852.890.5104.485.5125.5

Turkey4.7-1.8-8.0-6.0-8.9-16.2-17.4-28.6-41.0

Ukraine-169.6-215.4-161.8-102.8-46.5-69.1-95.4-142.3-253.1

Total-44.8-112.8-90.0-86.0-48.9-98.9-81.9-134.5-203.9

Debt Servicing377421.2866.91,020.60797.2486.3702.5

4.625.3710.5212.4312.8713.5713.94

81.5478.4382.4482.0861.9435.8450.39

&C&A

Moldova

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Moldova GDP Growth 1995-2003

Romania


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Lei/ US$)0.20.30.70.91.52.72.93.33.33.32.92.82.52.4



5GDP (Lei million)7,213.610,892.025,292.637,379.854,573.080,377.3116,769151,475197,565246,469288,047.8342,418.0394,977.0445,989.0

6GDP US$ million35,477.435,315.135,285.742,115.435,592.329,673.840,180.745,824.659,507.375,519.298,861.5121,901.2161,215.1188,181.0

7GDP per capita (US$)1,564.31,566.11,572.41,886.91,601.81,341.51,823.92,088.62,721.03,465.84,553.45,631.87,453.38,708.1

8Real GDP growth, %7.1%3.9%-6.1%-4.8%-1.2%2.1%5.7%5.1%5.2%8.5%4.1%7.7%6.5%5.5%


10Industrial Production Growth, %9.4%6.3%-7.2%-13.8%-2.4%7.1%8.3%4.3%3.1%5.3%2.0%7.1%8.7%4.6%

11Agricultural Production Growth %4.5%1.3%3.1%-7.6%4.0%-14.8%22.7%-3.5%7.5%22.2%-13.9%3.3%3.0%2.0%



14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million419.0263.01,215.02,031.01,041.01,037.01,157.01,144.01,844.06,443.06,482.211,440.09,800.07,200.0

15FDI/ GDP1.2%0.7%3.4%4.8%2.9%3.5%2.9%2.5%3.1%8.5%6.6%9.4%6.1%3.8%


174,948.56,174.46,853.76,966.96,219.36,957.07,719.49,503.112,190.013,910.015,060.016,130.0






23Current Account Balance $US mn-1,780.0-2,579.0-2,104.0-2,917.0-1,297.0-1,355.0-2,229.0-1,525.0-3,311.0-6,382.0-8,620.9-12,510.1-18,329.3-24,628.9


25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m1,579.02,102.83,803.32,867.41,526.32,469.73,922.56,125.38,040.014,616.419,872.128,066.238,187.748,431.7



Domestic Credit Lei Million1,6993,1424,7328,1059,72911,24415,16321,01831,31341,65259,84091,580131,218172,529

199419951996199719981999200020012002


32.2%38.8%154.8%59.1%45.8%45.7%34.5%22.5%

GDP Growth Calculation93.34100103.9597.6692.9591.8893.5198.42

7.1%4.0%-6.1%-4.8%-1.2%1.8%5.3%

-2132.93-4377.35-9755651110976

-29.6%-40.2%-38.6%17.4%20.1%

&C&A

Romania

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Romania GDP Growth 1995-2003

Russia


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008

1Population (Million)147.9148.3147.1146.7146.3145.6146.3145.6145.0144.2143.5142.8142.2141.8143.65

2Avg Exch. Rate (Rubles/ US$)4.65.15.89.724.628.129.231.430.728.828.327.226.025.9



5GDP (Rubles million)1,428,5202,007,8302,342,5102,629,6204,823,2307,305,6508,943,58010,830,50013,243,20017,048,10021,620,10026,781,10030,757,08835,089,145

6GDP US$ million313,271.9392,154.3405,278.5270,815.7195,907.0259,710.3306,602.0345,470.5431,655.8591,666.5764,382.5984,916.11,182,964.91,354,793.2

7GDP per capita (US$)2,118.12,644.32,755.11,846.11,339.11,783.72,095.72,372.72,976.94,104.55,326.76,897.28,319.09,552.9

8Real GDP growth, %-4.1%-3.6%1.4%-5.3%6.4%10.0%5.1%4.7%7.3%7.2%6.4%6.7%6.7%6.2%


10Industrial Production Growth, %-3.3%-4.5%2.0%-5.2%11.0%11.9%4.9%3.7%7.0%8.3%4.0%3.9%4.8%4.4%

11Agricultural Production Growth %-8.0%-5.1%1.5%-13.2%4.1%7.7%7.5%1.5%1.3%3.0%2.4%2.8%



14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million2,066.02,579.04,865.02,761.03,309.02,714.02,748.33,461.17,958.015,444.012,88630,82735,00029,000

15FDI/ GDP0.7%0.7%1.2%1.0%1.7%1.0%0.9%1.0%1.8%2.6%1.7%3.1%3.0%2.1%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-3.4%-4.7%-5.1%-3.6%-0.9%1.9%3.0%1.0%1.3%4.5%8.1%8.4%3.2%0.8%

17128,000.0129,100.0146,300.0155,400.0132,800.0116,700.0103,000.096,800.098,200.297,200.071,100.044,700.047,800.097.9




21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)19,816.021,593.014,912.016,429.036,014.060,171.048,120.346,335.259,859.385,825.0118,364.0139,234.0117,353.096,647.5

22Trade Balance/ GDP6.3%5.5%3.7%6.1%18.4%23.2%15.7%13.4%13.9%14.5%15.5%14.1%9.9%7.1%

23Current Account Balance $US mn6,963.010,847.0-80.0219.024,616.046,839.033,935.029,115.935,410.059,51484,44395,32380,33561,924

24Current Acct. Bal./ GDP2.2%2.8%-0.0%0.1%12.6%18.0%11.1%8.4%8.2%10.1%11.0%9.7%6.8%4.6%

25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m14,382.811,187.012,894.77,801.48,458.024,264.332,542.444,053.673,174.9120,809.0175,891.0295,568399,520434,499



Domestic Credit Rubles Billion363.7559.0690.81,181.41,607.61,802.02,288.22,895.03,662.24,345.64,460.85,727.658,002.2110,317.24



Lowest Point:1998

199956.926.4%

200062.6210.0%

200165.815.1%

200268.904.7%

200373.937.3%

1200479.267.2%

2200584.336.4%

3200690.657.5%

4200797.457.5%

52008104.767.5%

62009112.627.5%

72010121.067.5%

82011130.147.5%

92012139.907.5%

102013150.407.5%

112014161.687.5%

122015173.807.5%

132016186.847.5%

142017200.857.5%

25.5. FOREIGN TRADE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION WITH NON-CIS COUNTRIES

(in actual prices; mln. USD)

199519961997199819992000200120022003

Exports

Albania

Armenia127.0103.095.7128.056.927.575.594.5126.0

Azerbaijan85.6172.0219.0149.0115.0136.0133.0277.0410.0

Bulgaria652.0930.0914.0595.0479.0585.0512.0533.0619.0

Georgia48.9101.0148.0106.057.742.358.291.4153.0

Greece147.0141.0202.0365.0614.01,273.01,041.0957.0948.0

Moldova413.0390.0381.0325.0241.0210.0240.0269.0306.0

Romania654.0809.0740.0566.0404.0921.0796.0988.01,293.0

Turkey1,644.01,686.01,983.01,935.01,631.03,098.03,246.03,358.04,811.0

Ukraine7,149.07,547.07,240.05,560.04,792.05,024.05,282.05,885.07,595.0

Total10,920.511,879.011,922.79,729.08,390.611,316.811,383.712,452.916,261.0

199519961997199819992000200120022003

Imports

Albania

Armenia75.184.859.739.227.544.051.856.678.7

Azerbaijan107.0151.0260.0173.099.7135.081.186.893.0

Bulgaria471.0245.0261.0165.0108.0116.0139.0136.0162.0

Georgia57.968.0150.065.050.076.683.469.084.2

Greece257.0205.0184.0126.0122.0125.0144.0171.0142.0

Moldova636.0829.0841.0512.0267.0325.0347.0281.0403.0

Romania132.0135.0202.091.648.679.491.061.868.6

Turkey542.0578.0795.0517.0313.0349.0521.0729.0928.0

Ukraine6,617.06,294.03,982.03,267.02,528.03,651.03,845.03,230.04,437.0

Total8,895.08,589.86,734.74,955.83,563.84,901.05,303.34,821.26,396.5

199519961997199819992000200120022003

Trade Balance

Albania0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Armenia51.918.236.088.829.4-16.523.737.947.3

Azerbaijan-21.421.0-41.0-24.015.31.051.9190.2317.0

Bulgaria181.0685.0653.0430.0371.0469.0373.0397.0457.0

Georgia-9.033.0-2.041.07.7-34.3-25.222.468.8

Greece-110.0-64.018.0239.0492.01,148.0897.0786.0806.0

Moldova-223.0-439.0-460.0-187.0-26.0-115.0-107.0-12.0-97.0

Romania522.0674.0538.0474.4355.4841.6705.0926.21,224.4

Turkey1,102.01,108.01,188.01,418.01,318.02,749.02,725.02,629.03,883.0

Ukraine532.01,253.03,258.02,293.02,264.01,373.01,437.02,655.03,158.0

Total2,025.53,289.25,188.04,773.24,826.86,415.86,080.47,631.79,864.5

&C&A

Russia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Russia GDP Growth 1998-2007

Serbia


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (RSD/ US$)4.744.965.9110.0311.6663.1766.9164.2057.4058.7067.2066.9060.762.5



5GDP (Dinars billion)44.079.4126.4169.5210.2397.7783.91,020.11,171.61,431.31,750.02,085.02,347.82,625.6

6GDP US$ million9,274.616,007.321,381.016,899.618,027.96,295.411,715.015,889.720,410.524,383.526,041.731,165.938,678.742,009.6

7GDP per capita (US$)1,188.32,053.02,747.82,166.62,319.4821.71,514.32,118.62,728.53,267.23,499.94,211.65,226.95,677.0

8Real GDP growth, %6.1%7.8%10.1%1.9%-15.7%4.5%5.1%4.2%2.5%8.4%6.2%5.7%6.5%6.0%


10Industrial Production Growth, %3.8%7.6%9.5%3.6%-25.6%11.4%0.1%1.8%-3.0%7.1%0.8%4.7%5.0%5.0%

11Agricultural Production Growth %4.0%1.3%7.2%-5.9%-0.2%-12.8%18.6%-3.4%-7.2%19.5%-5.0%-0.3%3.0%2.0%

12Domestic Credit Growth %56.1%52.0%210.1%12.5%-37.8%35.6%52.6%40.7%3.9%23.0%17.0%

13Domestic Credit/ GDP0.0%0.0%25.9%30.1%36.9%60.6%34.6%16.5%19.5%24.4%28.0%24.4%

14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million0.00.0740.0113.0112.050.0165.0475.01,365.0966.001,550.004,387.003,200.004,500.00

15FDI/ GDP0.0%0.0%3.5%0.7%0.6%0.8%1.4%3.0%6.7%4.0%6.0%14.1%8.3%10.7%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-3.0%-6.1%-3.8%-2.9%-0.9%0.6%2.0%2.8%-1.0%

1713,800.013,400.09,770.010,539.010,744.011,136.69,758.68,628.110,266.59,972.910,156.3






23Current Account Balance $US mn-1,037.0-1,317.0-1,135.0-469.0-455.0-153.0-285.0-1,247.0-1,420.0-2,869.0-2,224.4-3,656.0-4,738.0-4,900.0


25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m300.0154.4391.51,004.72,166.03,410.84,095.95,627.911,647.7


Domestic Credit Growth56.1%52.0%210.1%12.5%-37.8%35.6%52.6%40.7%3.9%23.0%17.0%

Domestic Credit Dinar Billion32.751.177.6240.8270.9168.5228.4348.6490.5509.8



Lowest Point:GDP GrowthUN/ECE Growth Rates

19891989100.01.2%100.01.2%

1990199092.1-7.9%92.1-7.9%

1991199181.4-11.6%81.4-11.6%

1992199258.7-27.9%58.7-27.9%

1993199340.6-30.8%40.6-30.8%

1994199441.72.7%41.72.7%

1995199544.26.1%44.26.0%

1996199647.77.8%46.85.9%

1997199752.510.1%50.37.5%

1998199853.51.9%51.62.6%

1999199945.1-15.7%42.4-17.8%

2000200047.14.5%45.16.4%

2001200149.55.1%47.65.5%

2002200251.64.2%49.43.8%

2003200352.92.5%49.91.0%

2004200457.48.4%

2005200560.96.2%

2006200664.45.7%

2007200768.66.5%

1200872.76.0%

2200977.06.0%

3201081.76.0%

4201186.66.0%

5201291.86.0%

6201397.36.0%

72014103.16.0%

82015109.36.0%

92016115.96.0%

102017122.86.0%

112018130.26.0%

122019138.06.0%

132020146.36.0%

199519961997199819992000

General Index of Retail Prices174.1193.1118.5129.8142.4

Inflation Rate:74.1%93.1%18.5%29.8%42.4%

5.175688509

4.6853745781

Population

Serbia5,810,6055,807,5455,799,2445,788,8655,775,1525,756,471

Vojvodina1,994,1321,989,4321,981,9001,973,9121,964,5321,953,931

Sub-total7,804,7377,796,9777,781,1447,762,7777,739,6847,710,402

Kosovo and Metohija2,097,5482,133,6672,171,356

Sub-total (2)9,902,2859,930,6449,952,5007,762,7777,739,6847,710,402

Montenegro633,307637,868641,975645,565649,452652,883

Federal Yugoslavia Total10,535,59210,568,51210,594,4758,408,3428,389,1368,363,285

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/UNTC/UNPAN017772.pdf

2.4 Access to Finance

Access to finance is a critical determinant of private sector development in all

economies, as it affects both market entry and subsequent growth. After more than a

decade of transition in SEE it is clear that domestic sources of finance are inadequate;

the banking sector has generally failed to meet private sector demand for new loans.

There are a number of ways of seeing this. One rather crude measure of the level of

banking sector intermediation to the domestic economy is the ratio of domestic credit

(both to the whole economy and to the private sector) to GDP.

&C&A

Serbia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Serbia GDP Growth 1995-2003

Turkey


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Lira/ US$)0.050.080.150.260.420.631.231.511.501.431.341.431.401.47


4Average monthly wages (US$)598.2636.9639.6758.0773.8512.8558.5701.6815.8976.51,031.9

5GDP (Lira million)7,762.514,772.128,835.952,224.977,415.3124,583.5178,412.4277,574.1359,762.9430,511.5487,202.4576,322.23658,395.21719,860.18

6GDP US$ million169,319.3181,464.6189,878.4200,307.4184,857.7199,264.1145,572.7184,161.7239,699.7301,998.9362,615.1403,459.9471,857.6489,584.0

7GDP per capita (US$)2,703.92,847.02,926.63,033.62,752.92,920.52,101.22,620.43,364.24,181.74,954.25,433.86,273.96,428.4

8Real GDP growth, %7.2%7.0%7.5%3.1%-4.7%7.4%-7.5%7.9%5.8%8.9%7.4%6.1%6.0%5.2%


10Industrial Production Growth, %12.7%7.7%11.2%1.8%-3.9%6.1%-8.6%9.4%8.5%9.8%5.4%6.0%5.0%7.0%

11Agricultural Production Growth %



14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million885.0722.0805.0940.0783.0982.03,352.01,137.01,752.02,883.09,805.020,120.019,000.020,000.0

15FDI/ GDP0.5%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.5%2.3%0.6%0.7%1.0%2.7%5.0%4.0%4.1%


1739,472.040,192.338,917.639,736.742,525.848,620.646,110.263,618.969,506.573,813.768,241.969,792.2






23Current Account Balance $US mn-2,338.0-2,437.0-2,638.01,985.0-1,341.0-9,822.03,392.0-1,524.0-8,036.0-15,604.0-23,155.0-31,657.5-29,529.1-30,151.3

24Current Acct. Bal./ GDP-1.4%-1.3%-1.4%1.0%-0.7%-4.9%2.3%-0.8%-3.4%-5.2%-6.4%-7.8%-6.3%-6.2%

25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m12,441.816,435.818,658.319,488.823,345.922,488.418,879.227,068.633,991.035,669.150,579.061,073.867,287.965,571.8


Domestic Credit Growth114.9%133.7%95.9%93.4%99.4%64.3%101.2%45.4%15.0%17.4%15.7%16.9%14.0%11.7%

Domestic Credit TL Billion2,176.95,087.79,967.019,279.138,446.263,175.5127,130.0184,852.0212,491.0249,513.0288,800.0337,711.0385,093.9430,012.4

199419951996199719981999200020012002


88.1%80.4%85.7%84.6%64.9%54.9%54.4%45.0%

GDP Growth Calculation93.29100107.01115.06118.62113.03121.12112.25120.99

7.2%7.0%7.5%3.1%-4.7%7.2%-7.3%

EXPORTS OF TURKEY TO THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Albania56.953.941.144.865.761.373.279.8114.4160.9

Armenia------------------------------

Azerbaijan161.3239.9319.7327.2248.1230.4225.2231.4315.5401.2

Bulgaria183.2156.9175.9213.3233.6252.9299.4380.3621.7891.0

Georgia68.1110.3173.5164.1114.2131.8144.0103.2155.1198.7

Greece210.0236.5298.2370.0406.8437.7476.1590.4920.41,162.8

Moldova7.314.421.327.720.626.227.840.046.865.7

Romania302.0314.0358.8468.2268.2325.8392.0566.5873.31,229.1

Russian Federation1,238.21,511.62,056.41,348.0588.7643.9924.11,172.01,367.61,851.6

Ukraine198.5267.5337.0274.3225.8258.1289.2313.3445.0564.4

Total2,425.52,905.13,782.03,237.62,171.62,368.22,851.13,476.94,859.86,525.4

IMPORTS OF TURKEY FROM THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Albania1.39.23.42.81.42.83.64.04.615.5

Armenia------------------------------

Azerbaijan21.839.258.350.344.095.678.164.6122.6135.4

Bulgaria402.0362.8408.9367.4295.6465.4393.5508.4689.5952.5

Georgia50.232.565.991.093.3155.3127.2137.9273.9300.2

Greece200.7285.0430.8319.8287.6430.8266.3312.5427.7586.4

Moldova15.614.515.111.810.97.02.64.610.626.6

Romania367.9441.3394.1344.7401.2673.9481.1661.8956.01,683.5

Russian Federation2,082.41,921.12,174.32,155.02,374.13,886.63,435.73,891.75,451.39,008.5

Ukraine856.3761.7917.8988.8773.7981.6757.6991.11,331.52,467.0

Total3,998.13,867.14,468.44,331.64,281.66,699.15,545.76,576.69,267.715,175.7

TRADE BALANCE OF TURKEY WITH THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Albania55.744.737.742.064.358.569.675.8109.8145.3

Armenia------------------------------

Azerbaijan139.6200.7261.4276.8204.1134.8147.1166.8192.9265.8

Bulgaria-218.9-205.9-233.0-154.1-62.0-212.5-94.1-128.1-67.8-61.5

Georgia18.077.8107.673.120.9-23.516.8-34.7-118.8-101.5

Greece9.3-48.5-132.550.3119.26.9209.8277.9492.7576.4

Moldova-8.3-0.16.315.99.819.225.235.336.239.1

Romania-65.9-127.2-35.3123.5-133.0-348.1-89.1-95.3-82.6-454.4

Russian Federation-844.1-409.5-117.9-807.0-1,785.5-3,242.7-2,511.6-2,719.7-4,083.7-7,156.9

Ukraine-657.8-494.1-580.7-714.5-547.9-723.4-468.4-677.8-886.5-1,902.5

Total-1,572.6-962.1-686.4-1,094.0-2,110.0-4,330.9-2,694.6-3,099.7-4,407.9-8,650.3

BSEC Trade Turnover Calculation:6,423.66,772.28,250.47,569.36,453.39,067.28,396.810,053.514,127.521,701.0

Annual Overall BSEC Trade Growth Rate:5.4%21.8%-8.3%-14.7%40.5%-7.4%19.7%40.5%53.6%

1995-20041999-2004

BSEC Trade Growth Rate:14.5%27.5%

check21,701.021,701.0

236.3%

EXPORTS OF TURKEY TO THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES

(current US$)

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Albania56,942,09053,870,77241,102,27044,811,58665,666,93661,304,53673,204,95979,760,797114,426,136160,854,347

Armenia---------------------------

Azerbaijan161,341,579239,902,636319,701,923327,166,377248,055,693230,375,207225,214,059231,431,390315,488,303401,205,042

Bulgaria183,176,005156,906,143175,887,259213,316,149233,595,045252,933,912299,414,827380,332,334621,684,637890,985,133

Georgia68,125,853110,318,657173,510,015164,145,964114,200,489131,770,519144,049,362103,220,771155,069,890198,738,895

Greece209,952,932236,463,911298,236,607370,038,895406,794,147437,725,190476,095,465590,381,620920,400,9131,162,811,264

Moldova7,269,87514,397,48521,334,10627,662,62620,645,67526,231,72427,815,71839,990,77246,793,50765,652,526

Romania301,960,262314,045,157358,782,804468,178,139268,184,803325,818,464392,028,001566,497,254873,346,5351,229,092,320

Russian Federation1,238,225,6011,511,633,7602,056,400,3391,348,002,243588,663,804643,902,938924,106,7271,172,038,5901,367,590,9081,851,608,355

Serbia and Montenegro52,600,45360,656,19798,682,92181,362,099122,050,967184,676,117

Ukraine198,534,236267,538,503337,045,004274,317,064225,821,187258,121,194289,179,616313,265,002444,967,281564,442,150

BSEC COUNTRIES3,290,239,4962,232,283,9762,466,866,6052,932,470,8333,598,969,4975,044,444,2275,044,444,227

IMPORTS OF TURKEY FROM THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES

(current US$)

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Albania1,273,8089,191,8363,378,6522,844,9171,383,7442,794,7153,614,9853,972,8874,578,23315,528,509

Armenia---------------------------

Azerbaijan21,777,09939,165,00158,269,27450,343,95844,003,42995,615,00978,075,38164,625,463122,607,277135,405,414

Bulgaria402,028,833362,771,203408,852,229367,420,214295,572,911465,408,286393,516,184508,448,711689,462,333952,506,720

Georgia50,156,79432,494,62865,934,40691,007,33293,289,243155,315,361127,231,396137,872,534273,916,537300,237,490

Greece200,673,522284,958,914430,780,094319,751,386287,555,576430,812,980266,253,783312,462,301427,743,333586,395,427

Moldova15,615,92014,467,94715,076,61611,798,80910,863,0627,047,1262,591,8124,645,79510,606,22826,570,789

Romania367,870,367441,289,614394,086,802344,672,402401,155,729673,927,760481,139,647661,764,557955,971,1351,683,514,455

Russian Federation2,082,352,3541,921,139,1182,174,258,1172,155,006,1162,374,132,8173,886,583,2763,435,672,6193,891,721,4015,451,315,4389,008,513,989

Serbia and Montenegro25,940,32225,966,72347,406,6037,484,38511,146,42229,987,915

Ukraine856,340,137761,658,428917,760,125988,781,322773,686,388981,559,775757,625,630991,097,2801,331,505,4722,466,984,072

BSEC COUNTRIES4,357,566,7784,307,609,6226,746,470,8915,553,205,8226,587,757,3519,297,693,9019,297,693,901

&C&A

Turkey

Year

GDP Growth

Turkey GDP Growth 1995-2003

Ukraine


199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006Proj. 2007Proj. 2008


2Avg Exch. Rate (Hryvna/ US$)1.471.831.862.454.135.445.375.335.335.325.125.055.055.11



5GDP (Hryvna million)54,516.481,519.093,365.0102,593.0130,442.0170,070.0204,190.0225,810.0267,344.0345,113.0441,452.0537,667.0687,621.0755,649.0

6GDP US$ million37,086.044,545.950,196.241,874.731,584.031,262.938,009.342,392.950,133.064,880.686,141.5106,468.7136,162.6147,804.2

7GDP per capita (US$)716.9868.4987.8831.3632.7632.5776.9874.91,044.41,362.41,821.92,268.72,919.13,212.4

8Real GDP growth, %-12.2%-10.0%-3.0%-1.9%-0.2%5.9%9.2%5.2%9.6%12.1%2.7%7.1%6.8%5.6%


10Industrial Production Growth, %-12.0%-5.1%-0.3%-1.0%4.0%12.4%14.2%7.0%15.8%12.5%3.1%6.2%6.0%6.5%

11Agricultural Production Growth %-3.6%-9.5%-1.9%-9.8%-6.9%9.8%10.2%1.2%-11.0%19.7%-0.1%2.5%



14Foreign Direct Investment - $US million267.0521.0623.0743.0496.0595.0792.0693.01,424.01,715.07,808.05,604.05,200.04,800.0

15FDI/ GDP0.7%1.2%1.2%1.8%1.6%1.9%2.1%1.6%2.8%2.6%9.1%5.3%3.8%3.2%

16Consolidated Budget Balance/ GDP, %-6.6%-4.9%-6.6%-2.2%-1.5%0.6%-0.3%0.7%-0.2%-3.1%-1.7%-0.6%-2.6%-2.2%

178,013.08,839.09,634.011,091.012,482.010,348.910,118.010,194.610,692.812,146.611,674.612,661.1




21Trade Balance $US mn (Goods)-2,702.0-4,296.0-4,205.0-2,584.0244.0779.0198.0710.0518.03,741.0-1,135.0-5,194.0-6,795.0-11,380.0

22Trade Balance/ GDP-7.3%-9.6%-8.4%-6.2%0.8%2.5%0.5%1.7%1.0%5.8%-1.3%-4.9%-5.0%-7.7%

23Current Account Balance $US mn-1,152.0-1,184.0-1,335.0-1,296.01,658.01,481.01,402.03,173.02,891.06,909.02,531.0-1,617.0-3,466.6-8,177.1

24Current Acct. Bal./ GDP-3.1%-2.7%-2.7%-3.1%5.2%4.7%3.7%7.5%5.8%10.6%2.9%-1.5%-2.5%-5.5%

25Forex Reserves (end period- exc gold) US$ m1,050.61,960.02,341.1761.31,046.41,352.72,955.34,205.36,683.29,490.718,988.021,844.624,930.025,570.0



Domestic Credit Hryvna Million8,46012,04115,95025,20432,90240,51549,40563,39788,548109,255146,752248,631404,483557,050



Lowest Point:1999

200037.595.9%

200141.059.2%

200243.195.2%

200347.339.6%

1200453.0612.1%

2200554.492.7%45.0%

3200658.367.1%64.4%

4200762.336.8%

5200866.576.8%

6200971.106.8%

7201075.936.8%

8201181.106.8%

9201286.616.8%

10201392.506.8%

11201498.796.8%

122015105.516.8%

132016112.686.8%

142017120.346.8%

EXPORTS OF UKRAINE TO THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Albania0.10.91.51.04.412.316.235.0

Armenia25.310.78.411.612.122.133.453.4

Azerbaijan88.687.689.929.440.845.6104.7142.6

Bulgaria138.6154.7205.4294.5418.3298.5274.2325.5

Georgia185.049.431.542.137.836.557.3102.4

Greece96.980.459.975.048.1138.4103.2152.2

Moldova236.4294.4180.4122.8176.3274.4302.1486.0

Romania156.7149.0160.975.6174.2266.0337.7497.5

Russia5527.73723.02905.52396.43515.63679.53189.14311.4

Turkey410.8670.9696.3673.4907.51009.41235.4901.9

Total6,866.15,221.04,339.73,721.85,335.15,782.75,653.37,007.90.0

IMPORTS OF UKRAINE FROM THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Albania0.11.70.10.00.10.51.21.0

Armenia4.08.14.51.83.410.77.46.2

Azerbaijan30.747.027.733.823.88.25.38.4

Bulgaria124.8142.9100.567.566.765.258.459.6

Georgia3.87.77.86.010.311.215.840.1

Greece59.964.834.154.538.638.938.647.0

Moldova71.773.851.124.835.364.356.256.8

Romania80.486.947.852.353.328.129.046.0

Russia8686.17837.97064.35592.25824.95813.56317.18645.7

Turkey109.5162.0135.7142.7174.9138.2195.5312.3

Total9,171.08,432.87,473.65,975.66,231.36,178.86,724.59,223.10.0

TRADE BALANCE OF UKRAINE WITH THE BLACK SEA COUNTRIES


1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Albania0.0-0.81.41.04.311.815.034.0

Armenia21.32.63.99.88.711.426.047.2

Azerbaijan57.940.662.2-4.417.037.499.4134.2

Bulgaria13.811.8104.9227.0351.6233.3215.8265.9

Georgia181.241.723.736.127.525.341.562.3

Greece37.015.625.820.59.599.564.6105.2

Moldova164.7220.6129.398.0141.0210.1245.9429.2

Romania76.362.1113.123.3120.9237.9308.7451.5

Russia-3,158.4-4,114.9-4,158.8-3,195.8-2,309.3-2,134.0-3,128.0-4,334.3

Turkey301.3508.9560.6530.7732.6871.21,039.9589.6

Total-2,304.9-3,211.8-3,133.9-2,253.8-896.2-396.1-1,071.2-2,215.20.0

&C&A

Ukraine

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

GDP Growth

Ukraine GDP Growth 1995-2003

PPP

GDP, PPP (current international $) (mill)199419951996199719981999200020012002 est2003 est

Albania7,4618,2129,0498,4259,0229,91810,95411,63613,280

Armenia6,2986,9577,4197,6448,0468,5569,20010,11211,302

Azerbaijan15,71014,35514,90015,67016,88818,66822,74925,08827,356

Bulgaria48,94452,61548,49445,38446,32047,99553,00455,26664,695

Georgia9,0329,64410,55610,99911,29611,77412,89013,51614,261

Greece130,262137,266142,451147,183151,139160,932174,590184,708210,247

Moldova9,7419,9509,0779,2788,6298,5178,7739,18810,072

Romania113,031125,308131,841123,546116,167117,446123,355130,675154,410

Russian Federation858,088851,203831,466840,331809,364889,969983,8641,027,8491,149,118

Turkey290,341319,105344,247367,132373,680368,870411,418390,309483,963

Ukraine221,730203,054183,914177,896174,436179,298197,005213,347234,871

Belarus54,73850,58352,45058,40662,78266,26372,59075,954

Croatia27,02629,51631,63933,61034,42635,41838,13640,152

Macedonia, FYR10,37610,54010,80310,95711,22111,95312,95912,484

Yugoslavia, FR (Serbia/Montenegro)................

Cyprus10,87711,91912,32512,54913,11814,08815,39016,120

Czech Republic114,227125,696134,507132,739130,931135,212144,929150,534184,259

Estonia8,7259,2669,73011,00211,24211,46412,98813,87516,101

Hungary89,70894,61296,061100,042105,070111,203121,086125,693159,378

Latvia12,37412,64813,15214,21914,67415,40516,86418,23020,233

Lithuania20,50621,95723,44625,31426,49326,03727,79029,51033,889

Malta3,5563,9304,1624,3454,5724,7195,4625,199-

Poland242,709266,718283,114301,593313,594333,390360,114365,290376,573

Slovak Republic44,10748,13651,54054,48756,30158,76862,40164,62374,811

Slovenia23,06724,84526,04227,29228,13930,34032,87434,12839,908

GDP (current US$) (mill)199419951996199719981999200020012002 est2003 est

Albania1,9862,4242,6892,2953,0583,6763,7524,1144,695

Armenia2,3592,8871,5971,6391,8941,8451,9122,1182,367

Azerbaijan1,1932,4173,1773,9624,4464,5815,2735,5856,090

Bulgaria9,78113,1069,90010,37112,73712,95512,60713,55315,865

Georgia1,6901,9003,0773,5763,6202,8043,0213,1383,311

Greece100,147117,564124,361121,339121,958120,027111,955117,169133,370

Moldova2,7223,0931,6951,9301,6991,1711,2891,4791,621

Romania28,24231,90333,24134,70034,64535,89938,19338,71845,750

Russian Federation325,918337,709418,617428,464282,440193,617259,596309,951346,520

Turkey129,734169,319181,051189,165199,580183,823199,267147,683183,119

Ukraine52,45149,08744,55850,15041,88331,58131,26237,58841,380

Belarus20,47510,53114,75714,10915,26412,10412,69012,219

Croatia14,58318,81119,87220,29421,62820,06319,03120,260

Macedonia, FYR3,3814,4494,4223,7353,5713,6733,5873,426

Yugoslavia, FR (Serbia/Montenegro)..........9,8418,07110,861

Cyprus7,4368,8618,9228,5069,0849,2398,8279,131

Czech Republic41,08752,03657,92252,99856,97255,02951,43356,78469,505

Estonia3,9744,8114,3574,6145,2285,1945,1375,5256,412

Hungary41,50644,66945,16345,72447,04948,04446,60451,92665,842

Latvia5,4614,9045,1355,6386,0846,6627,1557,5498,378

Lithuania5,8296,4457,8929,58510,74710,66411,28711,99213,771

Malta2,7243,2463,3333,3403,5093,6463,5703,623-

Poland101,134110,677130,649148,862158,445155,039157,598176,256181,700

Slovak Republic15,16919,14720,50621,07921,99620,20419,74220,45923,684

Slovenia14,38618,74318,87818,20619,58620,07218,12918,81021,996

COEFFICIENTS PPP-GDP/ CURRENT GDP

GDP (current US$) (mill)19941995199619971998199920002001200220032001-199494-01 AVG

Albania3.763.393.373.672.952.702.922.83-0.933.20

Armenia2.672.414.654.664.254.644.814.772.104.11

Azerbaijan13.175.944.693.963.804.084.314.49-8.685.55

Bulgaria5.004.014.904.383.643.704.204.08-0.934.24

Georgia5.345.083.433.083.124.204.274.31-1.044.10

Greece1.301.171.151.211.241.341.561.580.281.32

Moldova3.583.225.364.815.087.276.816.212.635.29

Romania4.003.933.973.563.353.273.233.38-0.633.59

Russian Federation2.632.521.991.962.874.603.793.320.682.96

Turkey2.241.881.901.941.872.012.062.640.402.07

Ukraine4.234.144.133.554.165.686.305.681.454.73

Belarus2.674.803.554.144.115.475.726.223.544.59

Croatia1.851.571.591.661.591.772.001.980.131.75

Macedonia, FYR3.072.372.442.933.143.253.613.640.573.06

Yugoslavia, FR (Serbia/Montenegro)n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a

Cyprus1.461.351.381.481.441.521.741.770.301.52

Czech Republic2.782.422.322.502.302.462.822.65-0.132.53

Estonia2.201.932.232.382.152.212.532.510.322.27

Hungary2.162.122.132.192.232.312.602.420.262.27

Latvia2.272.582.562.522.412.312.362.410.152.43

Lithuania3.523.412.972.642.472.442.462.46-1.062.80

Malta1.311.211.251.301.301.291.531.430.131.33

Poland2.402.412.172.031.982.152.292.07-0.332.19

Slovak Republic2.912.512.512.582.562.913.163.160.252.79

Slovenia1.601.331.381.501.441.511.811.810.211.55

Sum Tables

2000 Actual2001 Actual2002 Actual

InflationTD/GDPCAD/GDPInflationTD/GDPCAD/GDPInflationTD/GDPCAD/GDP

Albania6.7%0.1%-22.4%-4.3%Albania7.9%3.1%-25.3%-5.3%Albania4.2%5.2%-26.0%-9.2%

Armenia5.9%-0.8%-24.2%-14.6%Armenia9.6%3.1%-19.8%-9.4%Armenia13.2%1.1%-15.5%-6.2%

Azerbaijan11.1%1.8%11.1%-3.2%Azerbaijan9.9%1.5%9.9%-0.9%Azerbaijan10.6%2.8%10.6%-12.3%

Bulgaria5.4%10.3%-9.3%-5.6%Bulgaria4.1%7.4%-11.6%-5.9%Bulgaria4.5%5.8%-10.6%-2.0%

Georgia1.8%4.0%-16.7%-8.8%Georgia4.8%4.7%-17.1%-6.6%Georgia5.5%5.6%-14.4%-6.9%

Greece4.5%3.2%-14.0%-6.8%Greece4.5%3.4%-12.7%-6.3%Greece3.9%3.6%-12.6%-5.6%

Moldova2.1%31.2%-22.8%-8.4%Moldova6.1%9.6%-21.3%-2.5%Moldova7.8%5.2%-22.7%-1.5%

Romania2.1%45.7%-5.7%-4.6%Romania5.7%34.5%-7.4%-5.5%Romania5.1%22.5%-5.7%-3.3%

Russia10.0%20.8%23.2%18.0%Russia5.1%21.5%15.7%11.1%Russia4.7%15.8%13.4%8.4%

Serbia4.5%71.8%-25.1%-2.4%Serbia5.1%94.9%-19.7%-2.4%Serbia4.2%21.4%-20.3%-7.8%

Turkey7.4%54.9%-11.0%-4.9%Turkey-7.5%54.4%-2.6%2.3%Turkey7.9%45.0%-4.0%-0.8%

Ukraine5.9%28.2%2.5%4.7%Ukraine9.2%12.0%0.5%3.7%Ukraine5.2%0.8%1.7%7.5%

2003 Actual2004 Actual2005 Actual



Armenia14.0%4.7%-15.5%-6.7%Armenia10.5%7.0%-12.8%-4.5%Armenia13.9%0.6%-12.0%-3.9%

Azerbaijan11.2%2.2%11.2%-27.8%Azerbaijan7.0%6.7%7.0%-29.8%Azerbaijan26.4%9.6%26.4%1.3%








Turkey5.8%25.3%-5.8%-3.4%Turkey8.9%10.6%-7.9%-5.2%Turkey7.4%8.2%-9.1%-6.4%

Ukraine9.6%5.2%1.0%5.8%Ukraine12.1%9.1%5.8%10.6%Ukraine2.7%13.5%-1.3%2.9%

200620072008



Armenia13.3%2.9%-13.8%-4.0%Armenia10.0%4.0%-10.2%-5.7%Armenia10.0%4.0%-10.2%-5.7%

Azerbaijan34.5%8.3%34.5%18.7%Azerbaijan28.3%15.5%28.3%27.0%Azerbaijan28.3%15.5%28.3%27.0%








Turkey6.1%9.6%-10.0%-7.8%Turkey6.0%9.4%-8.6%-6.3%Turkey6.0%9.4%-8.6%-6.3%

Ukraine7.1%9.1%-4.9%-1.5%Ukraine6.8%10.4%-5.0%-2.5%Ukraine6.8%10.4%-5.0%-2.5%

Proj.Proj.Proj.AverageAverage

1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082000-20052002-2006

Serbia

Avg Ex Rate Per $5.56.810.518.944.466.864.257.458.767.268.364.968.8

GDP Local Billion79.0112.4146.3192.9381.7771.8919.21,095.41,310.31,624.51,932.52,189.12,472.2

GDP $ Million14,455.016,556.013,889.010,214.08,603.011,547.014,320.019,070.322,325.824,174.128,294.333,730.435,933.1

GDP Growth7.8%10.1%1.9%-18.0%5.0%5.5%4.5%2.4%9.3%6.8%6.3%5.5%5.3%5.6%5.9%

Proj.Proj.Proj.

199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Czech Republic

Avg Ex Rate Per $26.527.131.732.334.638.638.032.728.225.724.022.419.819.4

GDP Local Billion1,381.11,567.01,679.91,839.11,902.32,150.12,315.32,464.42,577.12,781.12,978.23,124.73,300.93,471.6

GDP $ Million52,036.557,736.652,994.356,973.055,027.255,702.160,864.975,271.891,354.1108,214.0124,298.8139,495.5166,543.9178,580.2

GDP Growth5.9%4.3%-0.8%-1.0%0.5%3.9%2.6%1.9%3.6%4.2%6.1%6.2%5.0%3.9%

94.4100104.29103.5102.42102.9106.25109.53111.67

Estonia

Avg Ex Rate Per $11.4612.0313.8814.0714.6816.9717.4816.6113.8512.5912.5812.5211.4811.70

GDP Local Million40,89752,42364,04573,53876,32787,379104,500121,372132,904146,694173,062201,543229,222253,922

GDP $ Million3,568.74,357.74,614.25,226.65,199.45,149.05,978.37,307.29,593.211,651.613,756.916,097.719,967.121,702.7

GDP Growth4.3%3.9%9.8%4.6%-0.6%7.3%6.5%8.0%7.1%8.1%10.5%10.7%8.9%7.2%

95.91100103.93114.1119.35118.6127.05133.46141.13

Hungary

Avg Ex Rate Per $125.68152.65186.79214.4237.15282.18286.49257.89224.3202.7199.6216194.5190.7


GDP $ Million44,669.045,161.745,723.447,049.448,043.446,679.451,834.365,590.083,152.0100,784.4109,228.5108,287.0125,897.2133,948.6

GDP Growth1.5%1.3%4.6%4.9%4.2%5.2%4.3%3.8%3.4%5.2%4.1%3.9%2.6%3.0%

98.53100101.34105.97111.12115.76121.77126.41

Latvia199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Avg Ex Rate Per $0.530.550.580.590.590.610.630.620.570.540.560.560.520.53

GDP Local Million2,329.42,807.33,269.53,592.23,889.74,348.35,200.05,758.06,393.07,421.08,937.010,544.011,939.013,237.0

GDP $ Million4,395.15,104.15,637.16,088.46,592.67,128.48,254.09,287.111,215.813,742.615,958.918,828.622,959.624,975.5

GDP Growth-0.8%3.7%8.4%4.8%2.8%6.8%8.0%6.5%7.2%8.6%10.3%10.8%8.0%7.0%

100.82100103.68112.37117.71121.05129.34139.6148.07

Lithuania

Avg Ex Rate Per $4.004.004.004.004.004.004.003.653.052.782.772.762.532.58

GDP Local Million24,781.031,529.438,519.843,554.542,608.344,697.848,600.051,971.056,804.062,587.071,200.079,192.088,052.097,757.0

GDP $ Million6,195.37,882.49,630.010,888.610,652.111,174.512,150.014,238.618,624.322,513.325,704.028,692.834,803.237,890.3

GDP Growth3.3%4.7%7.0%7.3%-1.8%4.0%6.4%6.9%10.3%7.3%7.6%7.3%6.5%6.4%

104.71112.33118.07113.47117.78124.78133.15

Poland199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Avg Ex Rate Per $2.422.703.283.483.974.354.104.083.893.663.233.132.902.96

GDP Local Million308,104387,827472,350553,560652,500723,900779,200807,900842,100923,200980,7001,040,6001,116,7001,193,000

GDP $ Million127,315.7143,639.6144,009.1159,069.0164,357.7166,413.8190,048.8198,014.7216,478.1252,240.4303,622.3332,460.1385,069.0403,040.5

GDP Growth7.0%6.0%6.8%4.8%4.1%4.0%1.1%1.4%3.8%5.3%3.5%5.2%4.8%4.4%

93.44100106.03113.27118.75123.56128.48129.9

Slovakia

Avg Ex Rate Per $29.7130.6533.6235.2341.3646.0448.3545.3336.7032.3031.0030.1027.2027.30

GDP Local Million568,920628,590708,620775,000844,100934,1001,009,8001,111,5001,212,7001,355,3001,471,1001,633,8001,785,3001,962,700

GDP $ Million19,149.120,508.621,077.321,998.320,408.620,288.920,885.224,520.233,043.641,959.847,454.854,279.165,636.071,893.8

GDP Growth6.5%6.1%4.6%4.2%1.5%2.0%3.8%4.1%4.2%5.4%6.0%6.5%5.9%5.4%

93.92100105.84111.81116.24117.77120.36124.33129.8

Slovenia

Avg Ex Rate Per $118.52135.36159.69166.13181.77222.66242.75240.25207.12192.38193.58191.68175.88179.17


GDP $ Million18,743.318,878.318,205.819,585.620,071.518,963.419,616.922,290.928,068.832,494.533,823.236,919.942,722.944,740.2

GDP Growth4.1%3.8%4.4%3.7%5.9%4.1%2.7%3.5%2.7%4.4%4.0%4.5%4.0%3.8%

96.05100103.53108.25112.36118.21123.66127.19131.24

199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Total GDP $ Million276,072.7303,269.0301,891.1326,878.9330,352.5331,499.5369,632.3416,520.5491,529.9583,600.7673,847.5735,060.6863,598.8916,771.9

Czech Republic

GDP Weighting0.1880.1900.1760.1740.1670.1680.1650.1810.1860.1850.1840.1900.1930.195

1.12%0.82%-0.13%-0.18%0.08%0.66%0.43%0.34%0.67%0.78%1.13%1.18%0.96%0.76%

Estonia

GDP Weighting0.0130.0140.0150.0160.0160.0160.0160.0180.0200.0200.0200.0220.0230.024

0.06%0.06%0.15%0.07%-0.01%0.11%0.11%0.14%0.14%0.16%0.21%0.23%0.21%0.17%

Hungary

GDP Weighting0.1620.1490.1510.1440.1450.1410.1400.1570.1690.1730.1620.1470.1460.146

0.24%0.20%0.69%0.70%0.61%0.73%0.60%0.60%0.58%0.90%0.66%0.57%0.38%0.44%

Documents

Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in Sustainable Energy Solutions