INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY - 1968-03-22

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22 MARCH 1953 131;; c;DIAIS 68—68 Egg-I311“ U-S-C- COPY NO. V

DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY (U)

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Seo. 3.303) (1)

DIA INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY

Non Responsive

REPUBLIC OFVIETNAM:

NORTHVIETNAM:

COMMUNISTCHINA:

* * *

VIETNAM AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS

Situation report. A—S

Air defense developments. A—T

Air situation and status of airfields. A-8

Top Western envoy now in Switzerland. A-8

Possible visit by American newsman. A—Q

Rotation of AAA units in North A-lOVietnam. '

Non Responsive

22 Mar 68 i DIAIS 68—68

Sec. 3.303) (1)

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.- Sec. 3.3m] {1}

Lao Generals' Attitude Toward North Vietnam Stiffens

High—ranking Lao Army (FAR) officers believethe government should abandon its neutralist postureif the nations that signed the Geneva Accords donothing to remove North Vietnamese troops from Laos.They have, however, apparently done little to putthis view across to Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma.

The commanders of Military Regions (MR5) 4 and2 —— Gens Phasouk and Vang Pao —— told a gatheringof general officers on 14 March that the country'sneutralist stance would have to be changed in viewof the increased threat posed by North Vietnamesetroops. Phasouk proposed that Vientiane pressthe Geneva signatories to force Hanoi to remove itstroops. If this failed, the government should thentake a firm stand against North Vietnam. If itdidn‘t, Phasouk suggested that the FER generals epon—sor a vote of censure in the Assembly.

The generals were supposedly resolved to supportPhasouk, but when they met with Souvanna, their deter—mination had disappeared and they did not even men—tion his proposals.

Gen Vang Pao did, however, get Souvanna to per—mit air strikes against several towns in MR 2, in-cluding Sam Neua. The Prime Minister exempted twospecific buildings as targets -— those housing Commu—nist China's cultural and economic mission in PhongSavan and its military representatives in Khang Khay

|Sec. 3.3m) {1) ‘ l-

Despite their timidity when confronting Souvanna,the generals —— especially Phasouk and Vang Pao, twoof the country's most able —— are upset at the progressof the war. That the FAR can prosecute it more vigor~ously, with or without Souvanna's consent, is doubtful.The army has had difficulty holding some of its defen-sive positions. Unless its capabilities are greatlyincreased, the generals will probably support, how—ever reluctantly, the present government. (3595!?ii-iiiiiii-iiiiiflfl

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Cambodians Concerned Over Internal Security

The army is apparently making steady progressagainst ”Red” Cambodian insurgents, even thoughit reportedly lacks reserves and good intelligenceon dissident activities.

An officer said recently that a number ofbattalions had been alerted but that there werenot enough troops to provide adequate internal secur—ity countrywide. He added that some young officersand officials were demanding more prompt and decisiveaction by the government. After the Reds launcheda series of attacks in Military Region 2 in lateFebruary, the army appealed to Prince Sihanouk formoney to increase its strength by 5,000. The Princesaid he could not even provide proper clothing forthose already in service.

Nevertheless, the army may now have the situationin MR 2 largely under control. a message claimed that”788 Reds” had rallied there between 12 and 17 March.Incidents continue to be reported, however, inBattambang Province. Some 14,000 ”people” -_ probablyan exaggeration —- are said to be participating inthe second phase of a sweep there supported bytactical air units and artillery, and additionalweapons and ammunition have been provided.

Small isolated skirmishes are occurring in thewest, and casualties since 27 February favor thegovernment. Red losses were 55 killed, 12 wounded,144 captured, and 1,425 ralliers —— including the788 in MR 2. Government forces lost about 21 killedand 14 wounded. (W-W/cm)

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NOTES

COMMUNIST CHINA: The combat jet aircraft order ofbattle in the south is shown opposite. The 36 to60 jet fighters that flew from Hainan Island to Leipei(Suihsi) on 2 March may still be there; if they are,total aircraft strength in the south remains atabout 580. Of more significance is the fact thatLeipei is an air force base and naval air elementsare not normally colocated with air force units.The navy fighters may still fly north, as originallyexpected, but if they remain at Leipei, the air force's26th Division will probably move elsewhere in SouthChina. Hes-m W911?“ l

COMMUNIST CHINA: The deactivated Shantou AirDefense Subsector of the Kuangchou Air DefenseDistrict, which was in existence from April 196?to February 1968, was apparently created to provideoperational training for personnel assigned toinland radar stations within the district. Itsthree additional radars contributed little to theearly warning capability of the area but offeredexcellent opportunities to track ”hostile” air-craft from Taiwan; few such ”hostiles” areencountered at the inland stations. (See mapoverleaf.) - - - _ {b}{310

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Developments in South Vietnam

m. Renewed Communist offensive activity maybe coming soon. In 1st Corps, elements of the 2dNVA Division are apparently withdrawing from thesouthern coastal area into the mountains on the QuangNam—Quang Tin border. In 2d Corps, recent messagesindicate that a subordinate of the 24th NVA Regimenthas moved closer to Pleiku City and the 174th NVARegimental headquarters and the 1st NVA Division For—ward Tactical Group are between Kontum and PleikuCity. In Khanh Hoa Province, two South Korean Bat—talions have made several contacts with enemy forces.An agent claims that the third and last phase of ageneral offensive in 4th Corps will occur duringthe period of 20-30 March.

Enemy Contacts in 1st Corps

(89 Activity centered around the city of Hue.Several engagements were reported yesterday rangingfrom approximately 10 miles northwest of the cityto 12 miles southwest. The combined actions left110 of the enemy dead. Allied losses were 12 killedand 67 wounded.

Communist Forces May Renew Offensive Activity

(. According to COMUSMACV, statements madeby a prisoner captured during the Tet offensiveindicate that the exact timing of the coordinatedattacks was passed to some units by means of acertain radio signal. This signal has now beenrepeated, and, if the code remains unchanged, itappears that an attack is scheduled for the KheSanh area. The suggested time for this strike wasOBODH on 23 March. Action in the 3d Corps wassuggested for either 0300B or OBOOH on the sameday (1400 or 1700 EST).

(-6l ISec.3.3fbH1‘J |North Vietnamese AN-Z aircraft are apparently pre—paring for flight operations within the next fewdays near the DMZ, possibly in the Khe Sanh area.

(Continued)

22 Mar 68 DIA Intelligence Summary Page 5-5

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wssw)o} the operations will becarried out by two or three AN—Zs eouipped withbombing apparatus and rocket pods. These aircraftmay do no more than drop supplies but a bombingraid or rocket attack cannot be totally discounted.

Sec. 3.3m} {1}

Reduced Enemy Threat in Southern 1st Corps

(£6152: 33rmm I] lelements of the2d NVA Division are pulling out of the heavilypopulated coastal region of northern MilitaryRegion 5 into the rugged Quang Nam—Quang Tinborder area. They had operated along the coastduring the Tet offensive and were on an alertstatus while near Hoi An. Elements of Group 44remain in eastern Quang Nam and are still in astate of readiness.

Situation Near Kontum and Pleiku

@- The enemy may be showing new interestin the ' eiku City area. Recent messages sent bythe B—3 Front and the move of a subordinate of the24th NVA Regiment closer to Pleiku City provideincreasing evidence of enemy interest in the area.In addition, the Headquarters, 174th NVA Regimentand the lst NRA Division Forward Tactical Groupare now midway between Kontum and Pleiku. Thiswould allow the division to control an offensiveagainst either or both.

On 21 March, Headquarters, 1st NW. Divisionwas fixed 20 miles west of Kontum City or approximately

(Continued)

22 Mar 68 DIA Intelligence Summary Page A-fi

'Seo. 3.311;)m

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16 miles southeast of its 18 March location inCambodia. This relocation is reminiscent of activitywhich preceded the battles for Dak To last Novemberand could indicate that offensive actions againstKontum City are pending.

Attacks on Allied Airfields

“In Phong Dinh Province, Binh Thuy Air Basereceived 35 rounds of 75—mm recoilless rifle today.Also, Bien Hoa Air Base in Bien Hoa Province receivedsix rounds of 122—mm rocket fire. Five helicopterswere damaged at Bien Hoa, and electrical power wastemporarily severed at Binh Thuy Air Base. Noground penetration was attempted in either case.Friendly casualties were light.

Threat to Nha Trang Possibly Reduced

#- In coastal Khanh Hoa Province, two SouthKorean battalions made several contacts about ninemiles southwest of Nha Trang on 20 March. Theenemy lost 27 soldiers killed, 130 82—mm mortarrounds, and over a ton of staples. This couldfurther aggravate previously reported supplyshortages and help reduce the threat to Alliedfacilities in and around Nha Trang.

VC Phased Attacks in 4th Corps

fl 182c.3.3{b}[1} |the general offensiveunder way in 4th Corps involves three periods ofactivity, two of which have been completed (31January—23 February and 29 February—15 March). Thethird was to begin on 20 March and continueuntil the 30th. A US adviser says that the levelof Viet Cong—initiated incidents tend to supportthis timing. (mm

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North Vietnamese Air Defense Developments

Five US aircraft were lost to North Vietnameseair defenses during the period 6—19 March. Allwere apparently downed by ground fire; there wereno losses to SAMs or MIGs. Two US aircraft werelost to unknown causes. Weather restricted US airoperations.

SAM Activity

The number of same fired decreased to 66 from74 for the previous two weeks. There were indicationsof activity at 4? sites, 16 of which probablylaunched the missiles expended. SAM—associatedradars were active in the DMZ area, but only onemissile was reportedly launched there.

MIG Activity

MIG activity dropped off considerably —— some150 sorties as compared with 220. North Koreanpilots continued to fly almost two-thirds of alldefense patrols, while the North Yietnamese pilotsflew primarily training missions. MIG—17s were in—volved in most of the combat and defensive patrolsorties. There were no aerial engagements; thelast took place on 23 February, when one US air-craft was downed.

The level of fighter activity is similar tothat of a year ago, and this part of the defensivesystem is not believed to have changed significantly.Activity is probably low because of weather, thesmall number of aircraft present, and fewer USsorties over the northern part of the country; off—field diSpersal may also be a factor.

Over all, the system did not change drastically,but air surveillance and EW/GCI capabilities wereimproved in the southern Panhandle. The positioningof a BAR LOCK radar and a probable height-finderabout 15 nautical miles southwest of Vinh will pro-vide better control of MIGs operating as far southas the DMZ. m

22 Mar 68 DIA Intelligence Summary Page a-T

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The estimated North Vietnamese air situationand status of selected airfields are shown opposite.

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Hanoi's Top Western Envoy Now in Switzerland

No MIG—215 have been carried at Nanning nor have anybeen noted arriving there recently; however, theyprobably transferred undetected from Peitun/Yunnani.In addition, photographs of Yunnani on 9 Marchrevealed four probable IL-BBs, which may mean thatone transferred there undetected from Nanning.anem-

22 Mar

North vietnamese Delegate General in ParisMai Van Bo arrived in Switzerland on 19 March forabout a one-week stay. According to the SwissGovernment, his visit is in return for one made toHanoi by the Swiss Ambassador in Peiping.

Bo has already had several talks with SwissForeign Ministry officials, including representativesof the Ministry's Department of InternationalOrganisations, and Swiss Red Cross officials.

The decision to send Bo suggests that Hanoiis discussing with the Swiss wide aspects of thewar. His visit could also be a preliminary tothe establishment of diplomatic relations.fiflflfliifliflitnho

68 DIa Intelligence Summary Page 3-3

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Prominent American Newsman To Visit Hanoi

The North Vietnamese may allow CBS newsmanWalter Cronkite to visit Hanoi.

Cronkite has been trying to go to North Vietnamsince mid—1967; Australian Communist journalistWilfred Burchett had relayed Hanoi's conditionalapproval in January but noted that it would benecessary ”to wait for a favorable moment.”

A French member of the International WarCrimes Tribunal in Hanoi asked the CBS London Officeon 18 March if Cronkite could be in Phnom Penh onThursday (presumably 21 March) to depart for Hanoithe next day.

Hanoi probably approved the visit finally aspart of its worldwide efforts to explain its ”reason—able” position on negotiations. It may also feelthat the time is now propitious for a concerted prop-aganda effort against the American people. Cron—kite's visit would be the first by a prominent USnewsman since Harrison Salisbury was there earlylast year. (WI

22 Mar 68 DIA Intelligence Summary Page gag"' ' ..- “ Seiamm

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Rotation of Chinese Communist AAA Units in North Vietnam

The expected rotation of a Chinese CommunistArmy (CCA) AAA unit to Thai Nguyen, North Vietnam,has probably taken place. On 19 March, an uniden—tified Peiping Military Region CCA AAA unit replacedthe incumbent army unit, possibly a division, inoperational communications between the Canton Mili—tary Region and North Vietnam.

The Peiping Military Region AAA unit has notbeen noted before and is probably a new compositeunit. The outgoing unit relieved the possible CCAElst AAA Division at Thai Nguyen last August. Theprobable replacement of the Chinese Communist AirForce (CCAF) 110th AAA Division in the Hanoi areaby the CCAF 104th AAA Division began in early Marchand is expected to be completed by the end of themonth.

Other major Chinese AAA units now in NorthVietnam are the probable CCA 66th AAA Division inthe Yen Bai area and the CCAF 111th AAA Divisionat Lang Son. (m-

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Mauritius Recegnises USSR and Cemmunist China

The Gevernment ef Mauritius has granted diple—matic recegnitien te the USSR and Cemmunist China-It plans te establish relatiens with Peiping, butne date has been set fer an efficial exchange efrepresentatives. Chinese efficials have rcpertedlypremised ”te de everything pessible te assist” andare sending 10,000 tens ef rice te Mauritius; acemmereial missien is expected seen.

Beth Mescew and Peiping have presided assistancete yeuth and laher greups, and fermal relatiens areunlikely te result in any immediate, significant in—crease in Cemmunist suppert er presence. The Gevern—ment‘s decisien was dictated by the ecenemic andethnic prehlems affecting the multiracial island.Prime Minister Ramgeelam fears increased Cemmunistinfluence but censiders it necessary te accent aidfrem any willing dener te belster the extremelyvulnerable ecenemy. This decisien will alse '1easethe 24,000—member Chinese cemmunity. (SECRETflflfiiflfllSCJfilIfh}{3] 1e U.SI

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Documents

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY - 1968-03-22