Intelligent Software Agent Technology USPACOM Success with Virtual Information Processing Agent Research (VIPAR) at the Virtual Information Center Thomas

Intelligent Software Agent Technology

USPACOM Success with Virtual Information Processing Agent Research (VIPAR) at the Virtual Information Center

Thomas E. Potok, Ph.D.

Applied Software Engineering Research Group Leader

Computational Sciences and Engineering Division

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Research Team

Mark Elmore, Joel Reed, Jim Treadwell

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Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Established in 1943 for the World War II Manhattan Project.

ORNL today pioneers the development of new energy sources, technologies, and materials

The advancement of knowledge in Biological, Chemical, Computational, Engineering, Environmental, Physical, and Social

Sciences. Budget: $870 million, 80% Department of

Energy, 20% work for others. 3800 employees, 1500 scientists and

engineers

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Technology Challenge:Can we effectively process increasing volumes of data?

Binary

Text

Image

Multimedia

11010010

One small step for man

Sensors

Time

Data

Agents

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

IntelligentAgents

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Simple Agent ExampleAgent,

find me the book “War and Peace,”

and I need it tomorrow

Does the agent

understandbuying books?

Form a planto buy the

book

AmazonAmazon

Barnes andBarnes andNobelNobel

B. DaltonB. Dalton

2 Days2 Days$18.50$18.50

1 Day 1 Day $21.75$21.75

1 Day 1 Day $20.25$20.25

DedicatedDedicatedAgentsAgents

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Simple Agent ExampleAgent,

find me the book “War and Peace,”

and I need it tomorrow

Does the agent

understandbuying books?

Form a planto buy the

book

AmazonAmazon

Barnes andBarnes andNobelNobel

B. DaltonB. Dalton

2 Days2 Days$18.50$18.50

1 Day 1 Day $21.75$21.75

1 Day 1 Day $20.25$20.25

DedicatedDedicatedAgentsAgents

Execute the plan

LibraryLibrary 1 Day 1 Day FreeFree

eBayeBay 1 Day 1 Day $12.50$12.50

AgentAgentCommunitiesCommunities

On-LineOn-Linewww.online-literature.com

NowNowFreeFree

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USPACOM Virtual Information Center

Inside China

Russia Today

Jakarta Post

Unorganized Newspaper

Articles

Analysts Summary

CINC Summary

Manually gather Information from20–30 newspapers

Manually Organize Information

Intellectually AnalyzeAnd Summarize Information

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USPACOM Virtual Information Center

Inside China

Russia Today

Jakarta Post

Unorganized Newspaper

Articles

Analysts Summary

CINC Summary

Manually gather Information from20–30 newspapers

Manually Organize Information


What if technology could do this for the analyst in real time?

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New Intelligent Agent Approach

Article RetrievalAgents

Organize andsummarize

Articles

Inside China

Russia Today

Jakarta Post

CINC Summary


Technologically Gather, Organize, and SummarizeThousands of articles

Analysts Summary

• Gathers and organizes 10,000 article per day the articles for the analysts• Can increase the capability of an analyst by 10 fold• Leverage the analyst’s intellectual capacity for more precise decision

support

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VIPAR Technology

Agglomerative hierarchical clustering Dynamic vector space model Entropy based term frequency measures Resource Description Framework (RDF)

agent ontologies K-means knowledge discovery Phylips tree rendering

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Clustering: A Simple Example

Document Title Key Terms

D1:China Intercepts U.S.

Military Aircraft

China US Aircraft

Military

D2:Russia to Extend Life of

Nuclear Military Fleet

Russia Nuclear Military

Fleet

D3:U.S. -Based Chinese Military

Expert Denied Release

US China Military

Expert Release

T1: AircraftT2: ChinaT3: ExpertT4: FleetT5: MilitaryT6: RussiaT7: US

D1

D3

D2

2. Terms Dictionary1. Original and Parsed Documents

7. Phylips tree representation

Tjiji

Tji

Tji

ijS))(())((

))((

D1: D2: D3:T1: 1 0 0T2: 1 0 1T3: 0 0 1T4: 0 1 0T5: 1 1 1T6: 0 1 1T7: 1 0 1

3. Vector Space Model

4. Document Similarity

6. Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering

1 2 3 4 6 78

dk

1k

2jkikjie )υ(υ)υ,υ(D

5. Euclidean Distance

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VIPAR Example “Taliban” Search – 15 FEB 2002 “Taleban”

Accountability in Afghanistan, FRIENDLY FIRE U.S. paid off warlords U.S. Taliban fighter will remain in custody Army Troops Fired Upon in Kandahar; Lindh Pleads Not Guilty to Terror Aid Kabul warns of Taliban, al-Qaida holdouts American Taliban pleads not guilty World Scene February 11, 2002 • Combined

dispatches and staff reports Geneva rules for Taliban Bending the Geneva Rules Musharraf concedes rivalry renewed with Iran 'Axis' speech starts paying off Bush ties drug use to terrorist support Troops search site for dead al Qaeda Rumsfeld assails POW critics

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VIPAR Knowledge Management: The analyst’s Edge Same result, easier to “see”

PrisonersPOWs

1.Rumsfeld assails POW critics2.Geneva rules for Taliban 3.Bending the Geneva Rules

American Taliban1.U.S. Taliban fighter will remain in custody 2.Lindh Pleads Not Guilty to Terror Aid3.American Taliban pleads not guilty

Afghan RegionMilitary Action

1.Accountability in Afghanistan, FRIENDLY FIRE

2.Army Troops Fired Upon in Kandahar; 3.Kabul warns of Taliban, al-Qaida holdouts 4.Troops search site for dead al Qaeda

Afghanistan1.World Scene February 11, 2002 • Combined dispatches and staff reports2.U.S. paid off warlords3.Bush ties drug use to terrorist support

Other Middle Eastern Countries1.'Axis' speech starts paying off 2.Musharraf concedes rivalry renewed with Iran

POWs

American Taliban

Military Action

Afghanistan

Other Middle Eastern Countries

Prisoners

Afghan Region

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Endorsements

US Pacific Command’s CINC Admiral Blair “A tremendously successful project” “Software agents … lead to substantially

improved analytical products.”

Science and Technology Advisor “a grand slam home run!” “first time we've seen information discovery

and knowledge management software working at HQ USCINCPAC operationally.”

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Successful Projects

Collaborative Management Environment

Knowledge-based Computer Systems Calibration

Knowledge-based Systems for Constructability

Neural Nets for Material Mix Optimization

Knowledge-based Systems - Manufacturing Advisors

Neural Nets for Spring-back Prediction

Neural Nets for Resistance. Spot Welding

Neural Nets for Recovery Boiler ControlNeural Nets for Bankruptcy

Prediction

Genetic Algorithms for Chemical Synthesis

Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments

Collaborative Design System

Manufacturing Emulation Agent System

Supply Chain Management Agent System

We have extensive expertise in agent development

Over 10 successful projects within the last 5 years

1985 1990 1995 2000

Scientific Data Management

VIPAR Knowledge DiscoveryVIPAR Knowledge Discovery

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Cyber Counterintelligence Example

58,238 records of errors when accessing ORNL’s network on one day in September.

If printed, over 5000 pages worth of data A Critical Decision

Is someone trying to hack into the system? Who are the malicious users? What can I ignore? How can I analyze this with current tools? What elements of this data are crucial?

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Agent Technology Detecting Usage Patterns

Potential pattern of attacksearching for network weaknesses

Anonymous users potentially attacking the system

Normal web user errors“Page not found” by user

Potential attacks of internal e-mail systems

Summary of 58,000 outside hits of the ORNL website

Pattern of person or persons intentionally hiding their identity

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Information Challenge in Modern Command and Control Environments

Video FeedGPSAmmo level sensorGun sensorClothing sensorsBattlefield sensorsPDA

OrdersMapsPersonnel infoEnemy infoBattle infoCustoms





Signals and Data

Decision

Video FeedsGPSAmmo level sensorGun sensorClothing sensorsBattlefield sensorsPDA


DECISION!

Troop assessmentDamage assessmentsCasualty reportsLogistics reportEnemy intelligenceNetwork CompromiseAnthrax detection









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Agents 2007







Information Decision



DECISION










IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgents

IntelligentAgents

Low Ammo

Off Course

Enemy Position

Anthrax detected(Medical Records)

Enemy Near (see Video)

Support ammo low

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ManpowerAgent

Agents 2012DecisionAnalysis“What if…”


IntelligentAgents







Information Decision











IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgents

Low Ammo

Off Course

Enemy Position



Support ammo low

Decision Modeling and Support Agents

IntelligenceAgent

OperationsAgent

LogisticsAgent

StrategicPlansAgent

C4 Systems

Agent

OperationalPlansAgent

ForceStructure

Agent

Anthrax attack is real?• 13% of troops will die• 10,000 civilian will dieWe engage the enemy?• 70% chance of victory• With air support 90%

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Agents Beyond 2012

DecisionAnalysis“What if?”


IntelligentAgents

















IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgent

IntelligentAgents

Low Ammo

Off Course

Enemy Position



Support ammo low

ManpowerAgent


IntelligenceAgent

OperationsAgent

LogisticsAgent

StrategicPlansAgent

C4 Systems

Agent


ForceStructure

Agent

ManpowerAgent


IntelligenceAgent

OperationsAgent

LogisticsAgent

StrategicPlansAgent

C4 Systems

Agent


ForceStructure

Agent

How do we prevent future Anthrax attacks?…What other attacks are likely?…

What if:Anthrax attack is real?• 13% of troops will die• 10,000 civilian will dieWe engage the enemy?• 70% chance of victory• With air support 90%

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Summary

Intelligent software agents are a significant breakthrough technology

We have a progression of significantly successful, deployed, agent systems and research to our credit

Our systems represent a unique discrimination from state-of-the-practice, common, data mining

Enhancements would focus on military-specific needs, e.g.; languages, types of sources/data, decision aides, manpower savings

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Contact Information

Thomas E. Potok, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]