Inter-American Development Bank

Hydro-BIDA Public Platform for Modeling Hydrology

and Climate Change in Latin America

and the Caribbean

Raul Munoz Castillo

Sr. Water & Sanitation Specialist

INE/WSA

Overview

Hydro-BID:

Create a system for integrated, quantitative simulation

of hydrology and climate change in Latin America and

the Caribbean, for assessing the potential impacts of

climate change on water flows and infrastructure and

supporting the design of adaptive projects and

strategies.

Why Hydro-BID?

- Consolidated database for all LAC

- Simple and Flexible platform (downscaling, update)

- Modular: Easy to couple with other analytical tools

(WEAP, MODFLOW)

- Free access for water, environmental agencies, natural

resources ministries and academia.

- Capacity: in-house implementation by agencies

Intended Uses

• Estimation of historic flows: Water balance for water resources planning

and management.

• Estimation of projected flows: Climate change analysis.

• Drainage and flood control.

• Water supply and sanitation utility analysis.

• Hydroelectric Power Generation feasibility studies.

• Reservoir management and feasibility studies.

• Irrigation.

AHD for the Latin America and Caribbean Region (LAC)

▪ developed an AHD for the

entire LAC region:

HydroSHEEDS (NASA)

▪ Derived from SRTM terrain

data, as modified by USGS

– 15 –arc seconds pixels

▪ Data processed to create

drainage catchments

(polygons) and linear stream

segments (flow lines) with

connectivity

SRTM: Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

Hydro-BID Flow Chart

Risk Analysis and

Specifications for

Adaptive Water

InfrastructureData InputsWater demand

Value of water

Water

allocation

model

(e.g.,

WEAP)

Analytical

Hydrography

Dataset

Delineated

Catchments and

Stream Network

Time series of

projected water

flows

GWLF

Rainfall-Runoff

Routing Model

Data Inputs

Land uses

Soil types

Rainfall

Temperature

Reference stream

flows for calibration

Sediment Loading

Reservoir Simulation

Groundwater

simulation

AHD for the Latin America and Caribbean Region (LAC) (cont.)

South America

• 193,000 catchments

and stream segments

• Average catchment

area: 92 km2

• Average stream

segment length: 11 km

Central America • 33,000 catchments and

stream segments

• Average catchment

area: 84 km2

• Average stream

segment length: 10 km

It delineates more than 230,000 basins with their respective river segments along LAC

Caribbean

• 3,300 catchments and

stream segments

• Average catchment

area: 72 km2

• Average stream

segment length: 11 km

Hydro-BID allows multiple scale water resources analysis.

Amazon

Basin

Marañón

Basin

Upstream

Catchments

Downstream

Catchments

ComponentsAHD for the Latin America and Caribbean Region (LAC) (cont.)

Connectivity between

Catchments and streams

Drainage

(upstream

and downstream)

ComponentsAHD for the Latin America and Caribbean Region (LAC) (cont.)

Components

Land Cover- USGS Soil- FAO

Precipitation-NOAA Temperature-NASA

Geographic Data Inputs

AHD for the Latin America and Caribbean Region (LAC) (cont.)

Hydrologic Model

▪ Based on the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF)

Headwater reach flows

generated with GWLF

Outflow from catchment

after inflow + GWLF flow

subjected to routing method

Outflow from Watershed

Application of an RTI-

designed lag-routing

method from one

catchment to another to

compute flow at the

outlet

Climate Change Scenarios

• Allows to increase and decrease precipitation

and temperature on the catchments.

• Allows to input increase or decrease rate at

monthly scale

HydrCentro de soporte hydrobid(cesh)

WaterALLOC

• Disponibilidad Hídrica• Efectos del Cambio

Climático• Aguas Subterráneas• Transporte de Sedimentos• Embalses• Otorgas de agua• Calidad de las Aguas

• Mapas de Inundación, riesgo y vulnerabilidad

• Drenaje Urbano• Erosión y Deposición• Calidad de las Aguas• Rompimiento de Presas• Evaluación de

Infraestructura

• Sistema basado en GIS• Balances Hídricos• Análisis hidroeconómicos

Herramienta de Gestión de los Recursos Hídricos

Herramienta de Análisis de Inundaciones

Análisis de Demandas y Distribución de Agua

Hydro-BID I → Hydro-BID II

New Modules:

• Reservoires

• Sediments

• Groundwater

Sediment Loads from Watersheds

Sedday Sediment yield on a given day in (metric ton)

Qday Surface runoff generated in the day (mm/ha

Qpeak Peak flow computed as shown below (m3/s)

Area Drainage area

KUSLE Soil erosion factor (0.013 metric tom m2 hr/(m3-metricton cm))

CUSLE Cover management factor

PUSLE Support practice factor

LSUSLE Topographic factor

CFRG Coarse and fragmentation factor

Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation MUSLE (Williams, 1975)

Reservoir Simulation

Propiedades del Reservorio

▪ Reservorios individuales

▪ Múltiples reservorios

▪ Evolución diaria del

volumen del reservorio

▪ Método regional acoplado

▪ Link el modelo Hydro-BID de aguas superficiales con el modelo de

aguas subterránea MODFLOW u otros modelos

Surface water and groundwater interactions

Water Resource Allocation (permitting)

▪ Water Resource Allocation

(permitting)

– Existing abstractions and

returns

– New permits

– Analyze impacts

downstream allocation

– Deterministic and

probabilistic results

– Forecasts

Evaluation of Water Supply Risk: A

Model-based Approach at the

Braidwood Generating Station, Illinois

Permit

Location

New Permit

Hydro-BID Case Studies

Assessed potential changes in future water

availability under various climate change

scenarios

Rio Piura Basin

Hydrological and sediment load modeling in

Chanchay-Lambayeque basin. Modeled the

interaction between surface and groundwater

in the upper Piura basin

Chanchay-Lambayeque and Piura Basins

Implemented Hydro-BID at the national level

in Peru; 40 staff trained; 22 basins modeled

National

Assessed climate change impact on

proposed water investments for Quito’s

water supply

Chalpi Basin

Assessed optimal allocation of surface

water across agricultural and municipal

users by linking Hydro-BID with an

economic optimization model

Pernambuco State

Evaluated options for addressing seasonal

water shortages through improvements in

the efficiency of agricultural and urban

water uses

Rio Grande Basin

Compared two methods of sediment load

computations and provided sensitivity of

sediment loads to future climate changes

Bermejo River Basin

Implement Hydro-BID at the national

level; + 40 staff will be trained; + 15

basins will be modeled

National

Develop and operationalize an integrated

set of tools that support the achievement

of an optimized water management and

supply strategy

Implement Hydro-BID at the regional level

in Argentina

Regional

Implement Hydro-BID at the national

level in Guatemala

National

Completed

Ongoing

Future

Implement Hydro-BID at the national

level in Bolivia

National

▪ Escasez frecuente de agua en la

ciudad de San Salvador de Jujuy

– 265,000 habitantes (2010)

– Rio Grande es la única fuente de

abastecimiento

▪ Restricciones de agua para irrigación

agrícola

– 34,000 ha de riego

Cuencas del Rio Grande y Rio San Francisco

San Salvador de Jujuy

Proveer medidas de adaptación que podrían satisfacer la demanda futura de agua para abastecimiento urbano y la demanda futura de agua para irrigación, considerando efectos del cambio climático

Case Study- Argentina: The Rio Grande Basin

▪ Demanda no-satisfecha, usando la proyección climática del CIMA

0

50

100

150

200

250

Reference CIMA Ensemble Reference CIMA Ensemble

Tota

l Unm

et W

ater

Dem

and,

Mm

3/ye

ar

2011-2020 2051-2060

Option 0 - Current Efficiency

Option 1 -Improved Urban Water Efficiency

Option 2 -Improved Irrigation Efficiency

Option 3 -Improved Urban and Irrigation Efficiency

0

50

100

150

200

250

Reference CIMA Ensemble Reference CIMA Ensemble

Tota

l Un

me

t W

ate

r D

em

an

d, M

m3

/ye

ar

2011-2020 2051-2060

Option 0 - Current Efficiency

Option 1 -Improved Urban Water Efficiency

Option 2 -Improved Irrigation Efficiency

Option 3 -Improved Urban and Irrigation Efficiency

Reducción en la demanda

no-satisfecha para el 2060:

Opción 1 11%

Opción 2 79%

Opción 3 85%

Case Study- Argentina: The Rio Grande Basin (Results)

ADAPTATION OPTIONS UNDER DIFFERENT CLIMATE PROJECTIOS

▪ Análisis del Plan Maestro de

Agua Potable: impactos

climáticos en la oferta hidrica

▪ Se creó la base de datos

AHD de alta resolución para

delinear todas las cuencas

que abastecen a Quito.

▪ Área promedio de sub-

cuencas se redujo de 90 km2

a 5-10 km2.

Case Study- Ecuador (High Spatial Resolution-Hydro-BID)

Case Study – Peru, Phase I

Punte Sanchez

Tombo Grande

▪ Study Area: Piura Basin

▪ Objective: Assess potential impact of

climate change on water availability in Piura

Basin (Water Management Plans)

▪ Tasks:

– Build Hydro-BID model for Piura Basin

– Incorporate climate change projections

– Simulate water flow time series

▪ Results:

– Flows increase substantially during the middle

of the wet season under the “high emission”

scenario (CSIRO-A2). Total annual flow also

increases.

– Flows decrease modestly at the beginning and

end of the wet season under the “low emission”

scenario (CSIRO-B1). Total annual flow is close

to current levels.

Peru National- Capacity Building

Demandas y distribución de aguaHydroBID: aplicaciones principales

Inundaciones por rompimiento de presasHydroBID-FLOOD: aplicaciones principales

Inundaciones por elevación del nivel del mar

HydroBID-FLOOD: aplicaciones principales

GUYANA

Río KamaragPt= 40 MW

SURINAM

National Aggregated Downscaled Sub-regional Dynamics/Investments

Energy

Water

Land

Water - Supply

Water - Demands

To be developed..Infrastructure, investments

Land Use

Sub-Basin Systems Analysis

HydroBID Sub-Basins

HydroBID catchments Sub-region Focus

Region

Capacity Building

Hydro-BID trainee received certificate of completion of the Hydro-BID Workshop on December 14, 2016. Lima, Peru.

Thank you!

WWW.HYDROBIDLAC.ORG