INTER-MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

INTER-MINISTERIAL DIALOGUEON CLIMATE CHANGE

Corintia Atlantic Hotel

Banjul, The Gambia29-30 January, 2009

2

OVERVIEW OF THE BALI ROAD MAP

William Kojo Agyemang Bonsu

3

Climate Change Convention initially focused on mitigation (1992)

Convention objective

Achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere at a

low enough level to prevent “dangerous

anthropogenic Interference” with the climate system

• Allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change;

• Ensure food production is not threatened; and

• Enable economic development to proceed sustainably

within timeframe

sufficient to

No Binding Targets: UNFCCC signed by 191 Parties

4

The Convention clusters countries in three groups

“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”

Industrialised countries &

Economies in Transition (EITs)

• Adopt policies and measures with aim of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels

• EITs have “flexibility” in commitments

Annex I

Industrialised countries

• Provide financial resources to enable developing countries to meet the costs of implementing measures

• Promote technology transfer to EITs and non-Annex I Parties

Annex II

Developing countries

• No quantitative obligations

• Least Developed Countries given special consideration

Non-Annex I

5

Bali Road Map - Breakthrough

• Shared understanding for the necessity of common efforts, both by developed and developing countries

• Climate change linked to economic growth and sustainable development goals and needs – recognition action fall across a variety of economic sectors

• Deadline for negotiations by 2009: to ensure entry into force of future regime by 2012

6

Bali Road Map – two tracks

Kyoto Protocol “track” (launched in 2005)• Agree on developed countries emission reduction targets by

2009 • For 450 ppm CO2-eq, GHG emissions would need to be reduced

for about 25 to 40 % by 2020• Means to achieve targets: mechanisms (CDM, JI, ET), national

policies, accounting issues, role of LULUCF, etc.

Convention “track” (launched in 2007)

• Focuses on four “building blocks”: adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer & deployment, financing

• Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) also discussed

• Mitigation actions from developing countries • Mitigation commitments from developed countries

7

Transition from UNFCCC………

Adaptation

Mitigation

Global Action

Sustainable Development Objectives

Finance

Mitigation Adaptation

Technology

Building Blocks

8

The Road to Copenhagen (COP-15): Progress in 2008

First session, Bangkok, 31 March-4 April 2008• Convention: Work programme and workshops for 2008• KP: Flexible mechanisms should continue as means to meet

targets and could be appropriately improved

Second session, Bonn, 2-12 June 2008• Convention: Initial substantive discussions of building blocks• KP: compilation of views on means of implementation (LULUCF,

CDM, JI and ET)

Third session, Accra, 21-27 August 2008

• Work programme for 2009.• Parties started submitting textual proposals on building blocks• KP: options for means to achieve and criteria to define targets

Fourth session, Poznan, 1-12 December 2008

9

Half-way to Copenhagen: outcomes of PoznanConvention track:

• Assembly of ideas and proposals by the Chair• Work programme for 2009 adopted• Mandate to the Chair to issue options paper for an outcome in

February and a draft negotiating text by June• Proposals on shared vision and building blocks and long-term

targets KP track:

• Work programme for 2009 adopted• Targets post-2012 to principally take the form of quantified

emission limitation and reduction objectives

Other outcomes:

• 2nd review of the KP under Article 9 fails over share of proceeds • Adaptation Fund finalized: ready to receive projects in 2009• GEF “Poznan Strategic Programme on Technology Transfer”• CDM governance reform

10

Way ahead in 2009

• 2009 key for defining key features and crunch issues• Next session 30 March-8 April:

• Start negotiations on options for an agreed outcome• Emission reductions by Annex I Parties in aggregate• A number of submissions invited

• Second session on 1–12 June:• Draft negotiating text in the Convention• Individual and joint contributions by Annex I Parties• pick up on CDM reform

• Third session August/September• Fourth session 30 November-11 December in Copenhagen

11

• Negotiators/Ministers

• Conference of the Parties

• Subsidiary Bodies (SBSTA, SBI, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA)

• Expert bodies / Special bodies (Bureau, Adaptation Fund Board, CDM Board, EGTT, LEG, etc.)

• Contact groups / Informal meetings / friends of Chair (negotiating texts)

• Constituencies (G77 and China, LDCs, Regional Groups, EU, Umbrella, etc..)

• Other means: submissions, workshops

UNFCCC negotiation structure

12

LAND USE, LAND-USE CHANGE

& FORESTRYMadeleine Diouf-Sarr, Senegal

13

20%-30% of total emission

Can play key role in climate change mitigation

Emerging as important issue in post-2012 regime discussions

What we know

Land-use sector, including forestry and agriculture, is important source of GHG emissions

14

Key sector for developed countries because of mitigation potential

• Contentious because of high uncertainties

Developing countries focused mainly on GHG inventories (issues of data, resources, capacity)

Major step in Marrakesh (2001) under Kyoto Protocol: Afforestation & reforestation included in CDM

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation (REDD) becomes Convention topic

Evolution of international negotiations

15

Lessons from CDM

The Marrakesh Accords limit eligible LULUCF activities in theCDM to afforestation and reforestation (A/R) for the first commitment period. Activities in bioenergy are also eligible until 2012.

Parties have to provide definition of forest that they would adopt at thenational level

Rules and procedures that govern A/R CDM for the first commitment periodwere only finally decided in 2004.

A/R CDM has stimulated new interest for planting trees, especially in seriously degraded areas. This can be indeed a new opportunity for the forest sector, as it can open the possibility to promote long-termactivities such as restoration of forestland or tree plantations, particularlythrough the promotion of community forestry, which could have an importantdevelopmental impact in rural areas.

15

16

Difficulties noted

Complexity in the design of the project (carbon Accounting system, leakage, issues on non permanency, legal requirements in respect to property rights on land and thetransaction costs involved in project preparation).

Lack of accurate information in many developingcountries;

General sense of low governance in the forest sector,especially in developing countries;

16

17

Key issues under the Bali Action Plan

Developing countries want:

• Financial incentives (new & additional)

• Wider set of eligible activities

Four key mitigation options identified for developing countries: 1. REDD (reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation)2. Sustainable forest management3. Forest restoration (carbon sequestration)4. Afforestation & reforestation (carbon sequestration)

18

Mitigation measures from Gambia

The Gambian Forest Management Concept (GFMC)” is not toincrease the forest in terms of area but improve the forest coverand heavily undertake agroforestry and energy saving(development of bioenergy) (case example for CDM).

The new policy (2006 - 2016) aims at maintaining at least 30%of the total land area under forest cover and to manage at least75% of this area. (REDD national approach ).

18

19

BALI ACTION PLAN BUILDING BLOCK

ADAPTATIONMadeleine Diouf-Sarr, Senegal

20

• Closely linked to development

• Needs to converge with disaster risk reduction activities

• Impact assessments dominated by uncertainties & complex interactions

• Will require substantial funding ($ tens of billions)

What we know

Adaptation: Process of sustainable and permanent adjustment to changing circumstances

21

• Hard to define: very broad, far-reaching in scope

• Will require adjustments across every aspect of society, environment & economy

• Not stand-alone issue: linked to economic development, poverty reduction, disaster management

• Requires capacity for short- and long-term planning

• Adequate institutional arrangements (systematic planning, co-operation, and regulatory frameworks)

Key challenges in adaptation

22

• Initial focus of negotiations from 1995 was mitigation


• Adaptation identified as issue at COP-7 in 2001 (Marrakesh Accords)

• Identified 14 adaptation activities needing support• Created NAPA process and LDC Expert Group (LEG)• LDC Fund, Special Climate Change Fund, Adaptation

Fund

• COP 10 to 12 (2004 to 2006)

• Buenos Aires Programme of Action on Adaptation and Response Measures

• Nairobi Work Programme• Implementation measures on methods, activities,

technology transfer and financing

23


Four discussion topics identified:

Key challenges

1. National planning for adaptation2. Streamlining and scaling up financial & technological

support3. Enhanced knowledge sharing4. Institutional frameworks for adaptation

• Current level of funding• Experience of developing countries in accessing funds• Need for additional financial flows in future

24


MITIGATION

Madaka Tumbo, Tanzania

25

What we know

• Human activity is contributing to climate change and all sectors will be impacted

• ALL countries must reduce emissions to avoid worst damages

• Developed countries by 0 to -25% to -25 to -40% in 2020

• Developing countries “substantially” deviate from baseline (-15-30% suggested for major economies in Poznan)

• Significant technological progress made, but annual investment of $200-210 billion needed by 2030

• Forests and land use will be part of the solution

Mitigation: Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or enhancement of “sinks”

26


• MRV implies support for technology, finance, and capacity building for developing countries

• Developed countries must make commitments and action

• International agreement will be major challenge

Bali Action Plan calls on developing countries to identify mitigation actions that are:

• Measurable• Reportable• Verifiable (MRV)

27

At issue:

• “Common but differentiated responsibilities”

• Outcome differs depending on: which GHGs, which sources, time frame, scale (national vs per capita emissions)

• Comparability: how to bring Convention and Kyoto Protocol tracks together

• G77 & China want all developed countries to take on commitments• US must come to the table

• How to match mitigation actions by developing countries with support from developing countries

Key challenges under the Bali Action Plan

Mitigation is highly contentious issue in negotiations, in danger of remaining blocked

28

• Evolution of Clean Development Mechanism

• Sustainble development policies & measures (SD-PAMs)

• Sectoral approaches

• Kyoto-style fixed targets

• Per capita

• Brazilian proposal

• Emissions intensity

• Global Triptych

• Proposal on MRV by South Africa in Poznan (pooling action pledges and support) potential for compromise

Proposals on table in the negotiations

National context

29

Evolution of Clean Development Mechanism


• Evolving beyond a strict project basis to programmatic CDM

• Various options: expansion of the “programmatic” CDM, policy CDM, new eligible activities in the CDM, sectoral benchmarks, etc.

• Possible expansion of use of the CDM to support larger sectoral mitigation action, suggesting a scaling up to particular national sectors, e.g. power

• Depends on the demand for credits!

30

Sustainable development policies & measures (SD-PAMs)


• Setting mitigation goals as part of sustainable development goals (e.g. to electrify rural area in country by 2030 using renewable energy)

• Financing mechanisms for these goals can vary (CDM, financial mechanism, etc…)

• Option can be implemented based on existing provisions in the Convention and KP (Convention Article 4.1 (b) and Kyoto Protocol Article 10)

31

Sectoral approaches Proposals on table in the negotiations

• Setting mitigation goals for a specific economic sector within a time frame

• Different perspectives: national sectors, global sectors – different implications

• Different options for goals: goals linked to other mechanisms (i.e. programmatic CDM, SD PAMs), loose targets, fix targets

• Different options for financing depending: crediting for achievement of targets (through CDM or new market based mechanism or incentives such as financial support and technology transfer)

32

Common policies in developing countries include:

• Regulations and standards, e.g., mandates for biofuel, renewable energy policies

• Financial incentives, e.g., subsidies for energy-efficient lighting

• Research & development, e.g., improving energy-efficient stoves in Senegal and promoting dissemination

• Information instruments, e.g., energy efficiency labelling programmes and consumer awareness programmes

Examples of mitigation options

33


FINANCING

Bhujang Dharmaji, UNDP

34

What we know

• Amounts are large in absolute terms, but small relative to global GDP and investment

• Private sector dominates investments: corporations (60%); households (24%); government (14%)

Mitigation measures will require additional I&F flows of $200-210 billion in 2030

Adaptation measures will require additional I&F flows in 2030 of several tens of billion $

35

Finance sources under the Convention and Kyoto Protocol

GEF Trust Fund Mitigation, Adaptation Mitigation: $3.3 bil. (1991-2010)

Adaptation: $50 mil. (-2010)

Special Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation, $74 mil. (- March 2008)Fund (SCCF) Technology cooperation

Least Developed Adaptation $173 mil. pledged (-March 2008)Countries Fund (LDCF)

Adaptation Fund Adaptation ~ $80-300 mil. p.a. (-2012)

Clean DevelopmentMitigation Estimated revenueMechanism (as per 2008): $7 bil. p.a


36

• Improved access to adequate, predictable & sustainable financial resources

• New and additional funding

• Positive incentives to implement mitigation & adaptation actions

• Innovative funding means to meet adaptation costs

• Mobilisation of public and private sector funding

• Financial and technical support for capacity building


37

Financing optionsIncreasing the Scale of Existing Mechanisms

CDM and Other Possible Crediting Mechanisms: $25

Adaptation Fund: $0.5-2

Contributions from Developed Countries

Financial Commitments Mechanism under the Convention: $130-260

Contributions from Developed and Developing Countries

World Climate Change Fund: $10

Multilateral Adaptation Fund: $18

More Stringent Commitments by Developed Countries

Auction of Assigned Amount Units: $5 (in billion $)

For more information, refer to paper “Negotiations on additional investment and financial flows to address climate change in developing countries”, table 6

38

Proposals by Parties on Finance and Investment

• Generating funding–Criteria and indicators for provision of finance/

contributions–The level of contribution/specific tragets–Sources of funding

• Positive incentives for developing countries–For mitigation–REDD–Adaptation–Technology

• Disbursement of and access to funding

• Innovative funding for adaptation

• Institutional arrangements for finance and investment

39


TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT &

TRANSFERWilliam Kojo Agyemang-Bonsu, Ghana

40

What we know

• Investments in clean energy are growing fast, including new financial products and markets

• Substantial financing gap for the required scaling up

• Private sector incentives must be reinforced

• Most favoured technologies in recent years: wind, solar, biofuels (renewables increasingly relevant)

• Carbon markets (including CDM) can play important role for developing countries

• Smaller and lower-income countries still to see benefits

Stages of technology options: Research, development and demonstration / deployment / transfer

41

• Developed countries required to support transfer of technologies to developing countries


• Environmentally sound-technologies• Suited to local conditions• Dissemination of technology information & networking• Strengthened research and capacity building

• Identified as key modality for mitigation and adaptation: gaining momentum in negotiations

• Kyoto Protocol: also emphasises need for financial resources, CDM

42


• Removal of barriers to promoting technology transfer including:

• Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion and transfer of technologies

• Co-operation on research and development

• Effectiveness of tools & mechanisms for technology co-operation

• Financing• Intellectual property rights• Tariffs and non-tariffs• Capacity

43

Institutional arrangements for a new mechanism for RDD&D and technology transfer, i.e., new body with mandate for:

Proposals from Parties

• Compulsory licensing• Patent purchase• Incentive provisions for technology transfer• Funding for technology co-operation activities• Development of indicators, monitoring, verification, etc

New policy initiatives• Specific technology or sector-based approaches• Technology & efficiency standards• Identification of breakthrough technologies• Creation of centres of excellence to promote technology• Information diffusion mechanisms (national and international)

New financial mechanisms

• Multilateral Fund• Venture Capital Initiative

44

Presented at theUNDP Workshop on Investment and Financial Flows

12-13 September, 2008

WORK FOR ASSESSINGINVESTMENT &FINANCIAL FLOWSFOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Bhujang Dharmaji, UNDP

45

• Goals • Development of national policy options to address climate

change in key sectors

• Increased capacity to co-ordinate negotiating positions at

national level and participate in the UNFCCC process

• Outcomes1 National awareness raised with capacity development

programme

2 Investment and financial (I&F) flows assessed for up to 3 key sectors

3 Web-based knowledge platform launched

Project goals & outcomes

4646

National workshop

on Bali Action Plan,

national issues

National workshop to present

results, policy

options

Assessment of I&F flows to address CC mitigation/adaptation options for up to 3 key economic sectors (6-8 months)

Pre-workshop

preparation (2 months)

Sequencing of national activities

• Key line ministries engaged

• Key sectors identified

• National issues papers prepared

National workshop on:

Bali Action Plan

• Adaptation, mitigation,

technology transfer, financing + LULUCF

Key sectors

UNDP methodology on assessing I&F flows

Backstopping from regional centres of excellence

• Update on Bali Action Plan negotiations

• I&F flows assessments presented

• Post-2012 preparation

47

I&FF assessment What are the adaptation/ mitigation options for up to 3 sectors

selected in the next 25 years? Who is investing in the sector / major players and sources? How I&FF are estimated to happen in next 25 years? What shifts/increase in I&FF will be needed in the sector? What will be the overall needs for additional I&FF?

I&FF work

3 Main guides Work Plan Guidance Methodological guidance Reporting guidance

48

Define national objectives and goals for the assessment

Identify and agree on the key sectors Establish the I&FF team Assess methodological capacities and needs Assess information availability and needs Agree the institutional arrangements Develop the overall programme of work and budget Define the scope of the sectors Adjustment of available scenarios and/or development of

new scenarios Develop detailed workplan Develop budget

Preparation stage (1- 2 months)

49

I&FF team

Sector 1 Team, e.g. energy mitigation

Sector 2 Team, e.g. agriculture

adaptation

Sector 3 Team, e.g. water adaptation

Project Focal Point

Sectoral team leader Sectoral team leader Sectoral team leader

Mitigation expert(s)

Energy expert(s)

Finance expert(s)

Economic/statistics expert(s)

NGO/academic expert(s)

Private sector expert(s)

Adaptation expert(s)

Agriculture expert(s)

Finance expert(s)




Adaptation expert(s)

Water expert(s)

Finance expert(s)




50

$ support GuidesI&FF training (3 days)Center of excellence technical backstopping (20 days)Knowledge platform – with “communities” to exchange informationGlobal workshops

UNDP support

51

Conduct I&FF assessment (methodological and reporting guidelines)Guidance and procedures for:

Documentation Spreadsheet management Quality control and quality assurance procedures Archiving

Implementation stage (5 – 6 months)

52

File management control measures;Data-sharing procedures and timelines; Editorial directions (e.g., use of acronyms, instructions on what and how to report); andDocumentation and archiving procedures. Structure and content of write-ups (i.e., an outline or description of what should be contained in each section, examples of the required tables and style guidelines, etc);Formatting (e.g., format for each level of heading, procedures for use of common acronyms and units, reference format, table formats).

Reporting stage

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

Documents

INTER-MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE ON CLIMATE CHANGE