Interested?? Limited seats available...contact Prof. Boychuk ([email protected])

Interested?? Limited seats available...contact Prof. Boychuk ([email protected])

Important Announcements!Important Announcements!

• NEW DUE DATES!! NEW DUE DATES!! • paper proposal (Nov.17)paper proposal (Nov.17)• paper (Dec.1) paper (Dec.1)

• FINAL TUTORIAL DATE CHANGE!! FINAL TUTORIAL DATE CHANGE!! – November 22-25, Tuesday to Friday, 9:00-9:50, November 22-25, Tuesday to Friday, 9:00-9:50,

HH334HH334

• Guide for the paper proposal online at Guide for the paper proposal online at http://www.arts.uwaterloo.ca/~gboychuk/psci2http://www.arts.uwaterloo.ca/~gboychuk/psci264f05/assign.html64f05/assign.html. .

http://www.arts.uwaterloo.ca/~gboychuk/psci264f05/assign.html

http://www.arts.uwaterloo.ca/~gboychuk/psci264f05/assign.html

Important Announcements!Important Announcements!

• MIKE MCGREGOR'S SPECIAL OFFICE MIKE MCGREGOR'S SPECIAL OFFICE HOURSHOURS– STILL ON THIS WEEK!! STILL ON THIS WEEK!!

• PAS 1289 PAS 1289 • Monday 10:30-12:00 Monday 10:30-12:00 • Wednesday 12:30-2:00Wednesday 12:30-2:00

– NEXT WEEK!!NEXT WEEK!!• PAS 1289 PAS 1289 • Monday 10:30-12:00 Monday 10:30-12:00 • Wednesday 12:30-2:00Wednesday 12:30-2:00

Exam Tip of the Day...Exam Tip of the Day...

• there will not be a question from the there will not be a question from the section “The People Who Run for section “The People Who Run for Office,” 176-9.Office,” 176-9.

AMERICA DIVIDED?AMERICA DIVIDED?Part 3Part 3

November 8November 8thth, 2005, 2005

America Divided?America Divided?

• central thesiscentral thesis– individual Americans are more politicizedindividual Americans are more politicized– Americans are divided along an ideological Americans are divided along an ideological

spectrum into two broad groupsspectrum into two broad groups– this division has a strong geographic orientationthis division has a strong geographic orientation


• counterargumentcounterargument– American people are not dividedAmerican people are not divided– they are...they are...

• disaffected and apatheticdisaffected and apathetic

• centrist (rather than divided into two distinct centrist (rather than divided into two distinct ideological camps)ideological camps)

– relatively unified (more unified than divided)relatively unified (more unified than divided)

• geographical divide is largely illusorygeographical divide is largely illusory– created by political institutionscreated by political institutions

– reinforced by the mediareinforced by the media


• counterargumentcounterargument– American people are not dividedAmerican people are not divided– they are...they are...

• disaffected and apatheticdisaffected and apathetic

• centrist (rather than divided into two distinct centrist (rather than divided into two distinct ideological camps)ideological camps)

– relatively unified (more unified than divided)relatively unified (more unified than divided)

• geographical divide is largely illusorygeographical divide is largely illusory– created by political institutionscreated by political institutions

– reinforced by the mediareinforced by the media

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

• levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout

VOTER TURNOUT & PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1932

-40

1936

-44

1940

-48

1944

-52

1948

-56

1952

-60

1956

-64

1960

-68

1964

-72

1968

-72

1972

-80

1976

-84

1980

-88

1984

-92

1988

-96

1992

-200

0

1996

-200

4

Pe

rce

nt

(%)

Turnout %VAP

Pres. Support % of Vote

Pres. Support %VAP


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1932

-40

1936

-44

1940

-48

1944

-52

1948

-56

1952

-60

1956

-64

1960

-68

1964

-72

1968

-72

1972

-80

1976

-84

1980

-88

1984

-92

1988

-96

1992

-200

0

1996

-200

4

Pe

rce

nt

(%)

Turnout %VAP


Pres. Support %VAP


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1932

-40

1936

-44

1940

-48

1944

-52

1948

-56

1952

-60

1956

-64

1960

-68

1964

-72

1968

-72

1972

-80

1976

-84

1980

-88

1984

-92

1988

-96

1992

-200

0

1996

-200

4

Pe

rce

nt

(%)

Turnout %VAP


Pres. Support %VAP


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1932

-40

1936

-44

1940

-48

1944

-52

1948

-56

1952

-60

1956

-64

1960

-68

1964

-72

1968

-72

1972

-80

1976

-84

1980

-88

1984

-92

1988

-96

1992

-200

0

1996

-200

4

Pe

rce

nt

(%)

Turnout %VAP


Pres. Support %VAP


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1932

-40

1936

-44

1940

-48

1944

-52

1948

-56

1952

-60

1956

-64

1960

-68

1964

-72

1968

-72

1972

-80

1976

-84

1980

-88

1984

-92

1988

-96

1992

-200

0

1996

-200

4

Pe

rce

nt

(%)

Turnout %VAP


Pres. Support %VAP

28.5%


• levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout– two trends to be explainedtwo trends to be explained

• low voter turnoutlow voter turnout• declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout




Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – LowLow Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

• registration proceduresregistration procedures• requires registrationrequires registration• motor voter lawsmotor voter laws


• registration proceduresregistration procedures• requires registrationrequires registration• motor voter lawsmotor voter laws• why is voter registration even an issue?why is voter registration even an issue?


• registration proceduresregistration procedures• requires registrationrequires registration• motor voter lawsmotor voter laws• why is voter registration even an issue?why is voter registration even an issue?

• voter fatigue/strategic votingvoter fatigue/strategic voting

• high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation– range of elective officesrange of elective offices


Elections in MassachusettsElections in Massachusetts

• PresidentPresident• US House of US House of

RepresentativesRepresentatives• US SenateUS Senate• state governorstate governor• state representativestate representative• state senatestate senate• state attorney generalstate attorney general• state auditorstate auditor

• state treasurerstate treasurer• secretary of statesecretary of state• county commissionercounty commissioner• sheriffsheriff• clerks of courtsclerks of courts• mayormayor• city councillorscity councillors• school committee school committee

membersmembers


– primary electionsprimary elections• elections (generally limited to self-identified elections (generally limited to self-identified

party voters) to determine who will be the party voters) to determine who will be the party’s candidate in a general election (open to party’s candidate in a general election (open to the general public)the general public)



– primary electionsprimary elections

– referendums and initiativesreferendums and initiatives


Referendums and Initiatives – Referendums and Initiatives – What are They?What are They?

• What are They?What are They?– initiative – proposal to put some issue to a initiative – proposal to put some issue to a

referendumreferendum• requires 3%-15% of voters to signrequires 3%-15% of voters to sign

– propositionproposition• referendum question put directly on the ballotreferendum question put directly on the ballot

Referendums and Initiatives – Referendums and Initiatives – How and When Are They Used?How and When Are They Used?

• allowed by 24 statesallowed by 24 states

– half of all initiatives take place in five stateshalf of all initiatives take place in five states

• Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, ArizonaOregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, Arizona

• success ratesuccess rate

• 50% once they are on the ballot50% once they are on the ballot

• CaliforniaCalifornia

• 8-12 propositions on EACH ballot8-12 propositions on EACH ballot

• some propositions of VERY considerable importancesome propositions of VERY considerable importance

• November 8, 2005 electionsNovember 8, 2005 elections

http://calvoter.org/voter/elections/2005/special/props/index.html








• actual participationactual participation– primaries (5%-20%)primaries (5%-20%)





• actual participationactual participation– primaries (5%-20%)primaries (5%-20%)

– Presidential general election (45%-55%)Presidential general election (45%-55%)


• high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation– range of elective officesrange of elective offices– primary electionsprimary elections– referendums and initiativesreferendums and initiatives

• actual participationactual participation– primaries (5%-20%)primaries (5%-20%)– Presidential general election (45%-55%)Presidential general election (45%-55%)– Congressional elections (every two years) – Congressional elections (every two years) –

35%-40%35%-40%


• strategic votingstrategic voting– vote in elections that are a close racevote in elections that are a close race– vote in elections with candidates that voter has vote in elections with candidates that voter has

strong feelings for/againststrong feelings for/against– vote in elections with issues of relevance to votervote in elections with issues of relevance to voter

• the “Seinfeld” election in 2002?the “Seinfeld” election in 2002?– vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in

playplay• esp. Presidential electionsesp. Presidential elections


• expectation of lower voter turnoutexpectation of lower voter turnout– many more opportunties to vote many more opportunties to vote

• lower voter turnout at eachlower voter turnout at each

– voting is much more demanding voting is much more demanding • lower voter turnoutlower voter turnout

– primary votingprimary voting• range of candidates already narrowed prior to general range of candidates already narrowed prior to general

electionelection

– winner-take-all electoral systemwinner-take-all electoral system• wasted voteswasted votes





Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – DecliningDeclining Voter Turnout Voter Turnout

• alternative hypothesesalternative hypotheses– voter disaffectionvoter disaffection

• voters apathetic and do not feel that their vote voters apathetic and do not feel that their vote will make a differencewill make a difference

– voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction• voters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the voters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the

system to take the effort to get out and votesystem to take the effort to get out and vote


• alternative hypothesesalternative hypotheses– voter disaffectionvoter disaffection

• voters apathetic and do not feel that their vote voters apathetic and do not feel that their vote will make a differencewill make a difference

– voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction• voters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the voters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the

system to take the effort to get out and votesystem to take the effort to get out and vote

• contributing factorscontributing factors– demographicsdemographics


• contributing factorscontributing factors– demographicsdemographics– less effort at voter mobilization by partiesless effort at voter mobilization by parties– sense that voting matters lesssense that voting matters less

• voting less likely to have an impact on the voting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of electionsoutcome of elections

– perception of fewer differences between partyperception of fewer differences between party• different outcomes less likely to have an impact different outcomes less likely to have an impact

on public policyon public policy• less interest in who winsless interest in who wins


• contributing factorscontributing factors– demographicsdemographics– less effort at voter mobilization by partiesless effort at voter mobilization by parties– sense that voting matters lesssense that voting matters less

• voting less likely to have an impact on the voting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of electionsoutcome of elections

– perception of fewer differences between partyperception of fewer differences between party• voting less likely to have an impact on the voting less likely to have an impact on the

outcome of electionsoutcome of elections• less interest in who winsless interest in who wins


• incumbencyincumbency– safe seats vs. contested seats/key racesafe seats vs. contested seats/key race

• importance of redistrictingimportance of redistricting


SEATS SEATS GAINED/LOST GAINED/LOST IN MID-TERM IN MID-TERM ELECTIONS BY ELECTIONS BY PRESIDENT’S PRESIDENT’S PARTY, 1942-PARTY, 1942-20022002

• incumbencyincumbency– safe seats vs. contested seats/key racesafe seats vs. contested seats/key race

• importance of redistrictingimportance of redistricting

– trendstrends• elections are increasingly referendums on incumbentselections are increasingly referendums on incumbents

• incumbent has to do something to loseincumbent has to do something to lose

• challenger finds it hard to get money...hard to break challenger finds it hard to get money...hard to break cyclecycle

• increasingly powerful role of interest groupsincreasingly powerful role of interest groups


Voter Turnout -- Main Point!Voter Turnout -- Main Point!

• the American political system is geared towards the American political system is geared towards providing considerable opportunities for mass providing considerable opportunities for mass political participationpolitical participation

• actual levels of mass participation do not reach the actual levels of mass participation do not reach the “ideal”“ideal”– relatively low levels of voter turnout may not be relatively low levels of voter turnout may not be

particularly suprisingparticularly suprising– declining levels of voter turnout may be more problematicdeclining levels of voter turnout may be more problematic

• individual voters are NOT more politicized than they individual voters are NOT more politicized than they have been in the pasthave been in the past

Documents

Interested?? Limited seats available...contact Prof. Boychuk ([email protected])