International Coffee Outlook · 3 India: Share of Arabica/Robusta on total production Crop years 1985/86 to 2011/12* 90% 100% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% International Coffee Organization

1

International Coffee Outlook

India International Coffee Festival 2012

“Growing with Coffee”18 to 20 January 2012

International Coffee Organization

New Delhi, India

Robério Oliveira Silva

Executive Director

ICO composite indicator price Monthly averages: January 2000 to December 2011

in current terms

200

220

240

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

US

cent

s/lb


0

20

40

60

2

World ProductionCrop years 2000/01 to 2011/12*

123 2

129.0 128.3

122 9

134.2 132.4

130

140

150

113.0

107.7

123.2

106.3

116.3

111.4

120.0122.9

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

mil

lion

bag

s


*Estimated

0

10

20

30

40

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11* 2011/12*

Production: 10 leading producers(Volume in 000 bags ‐ % of world production)

2010/11 2011/12*%

change

Brazil 48 095 43 480 ‐9.6a 8 095 3 80 9.6

Vietnam 19 467 18 500 ‐5.0

Ethiopia 7 500 9 804 +30.7

Indonesia 9 129 8 750 ‐4.2

Colombia 8 523 8 500 ‐0.3

India 5 033 5 370 +6.7


Peru 3 976 5 000 +25.7

Mexico 4 850 4 500 ‐7.2

Honduras 4 326 4 300 ‐0.6

Guatemala 3 950 3 450 ‐12.7*Estimated

3

India: Share of Arabica/Robusta on total production Crop years 1985/86 to 2011/12*

90%

100%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


*Estimated

0%

10%

20%

Arabica Robusta

India: Share of total production in Asia and WorldCrop years 1985/86 to 2011/12*

30%

35%

10%

15%

20%

25%


0%

5%

Asia World

*Estimated

4

Opening stocks in exporting countriesCrop years 1964 to 2011*

85.890

100

70.768.1

81.080.2

71.0

64.5

53.8 53.855.1

40.3

49.5

44.8

29.6

32.630.5

32.734.6

52.452.0

54.9

48.2

45.342.6

64.063.5

55.8

53.154.2

52.2

47.4

53.5

44.242.2

40.041.0

55.154.0

48.3

52.7

41.2

37.2

28.427.730

40

50

60

70

80

mil

lion

bag

s


*Estimated

19.520.5

18.517.3

0

10

20

Inventories in importing countriesCalendar years 1964 to 2011*

20 321.1

21.4

22.4 22.3

25

8.8

6.6

9.08.4

7.98.2

9.2

10.5

7.87.5

6.86 3

7.8

9.3

8.5

7.5

6 4

7.9

9.8

12.6

9.3

11.6

18.1

16.0

19.3

16.1

14.8

9.3

7.78.4 8.2

10.5

16.1

18.6

20.120.1

20.320.2

19.118.4

10

15

20

mil

lion

bag

s


*Estimated at the end of Sep‐11

6.15.6 5.7

6.3 6.1 6.4

0

5

5

World stocks/consumption relation1964 to 2011*

1.4

1.6

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2


*Estimated

0.0

0.2

0.4

Inventories in importing countriesDecember 2010 and September 2011*

Dec‐10 Sep‐11* Change(000 bags)

All importing countries 18 431 22 285 4 556

European Union 12 425 14 927 2 502Belgium 4 865 6 616 1 751Italy 2 127 2 592 466Germany 2 680 2 934 254France 427 490 64Others 2 326 2 299 4


Others 2 326 2 299 ‐4

Japan 1 755 2 510 755Norway 124 124 0Switzerland 154 143 ‐11USA 3 974 4 582 608

*Preliminary

6

Total exports to all destinationsCalendar years 2000 to 2011*

104.0

100

110

120

89.6 90.988.8

86.4

91.187.6

91.696.3 97.5 96.2 96.8

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

mil

lion

bag

s


*Estimated

0

10

20

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

calendar year

Exports by group and by type of coffeeDecember to November (000 bags)

2010/11 (Dec‐10 to Nov‐11)

2009/10(Dec‐10 to Nov‐11) Change

Total 103 931 95 557 10.1%

Colombian Milds 9 102 8 496 7.1%

Other Milds 25 435 22 743 11.8%

Brazilian Naturals 32 518 32 226 0.9%

Robustas 36 875 32 092 14 9%


Robustas 36 875 32 092 14.9%

Arabicas 67 056 63 465 5.7%

Robustas 36 875 32 092 14.9%

7

Arbitrage: New York – LondonMonthly averages 2nd and 3rd positions

January 1990 to November 2011

180

200

60

80

100

120

140

160

US cents per pound


0

20

40

Exports by the top 10 exporting countriesDecember to November (000 bags)

2010/11 2009/10 Change

Brazil 33 869 32 154 5.3%

Vietnam 17 025 14 503 17.4%

Colombia 7 982 7 504 6.4%

Indonesia 6 190 5 725 8.1%

India 5 993 4 430 35.3%

Peru 4 027 3 752 7.3%


Honduras 3 900 3 181 22.6%

Guatemala 3 700 3 442 7.5%

Uganda 3 138 2 691 16.6%

Mexico 2 865 2 509 14.2%

8

India: exports by type of coffeeCalendar years 1985 to 2011*

4.0

4.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

million bags


0.0

0.5

Arabicas Robustas

*Estimated

India: exports by form of coffee and % of processed coffee in total exports

Calendar years 1985 to 2011*

40%

45%

4.0

4.5

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

million bags


*Estimated

0%

5%

0.0

0.5

Green Processed % Processed coffee in total exports

9

Value of coffee exportsCalendar years 2000 to 2011*

23.525

8.2

6.9

9.3

10.8

12.8

15.4

13.3

16.7

10

15

20

billion US dollars


*Estimated

5.4 5.25.6

0

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

World consumption Calendar years 2000 to 2010*

124.6129.3

132.9 131.8135.0

130

140

150

105.5109.8 111.4

114.0

120.0 120.8124.6

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

million bags


*Estimated

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

10

World coffee consumption Evolution 2000 – 2010

(in thousand bags)

Change (2010)‐(2000)

Period growth rate (%)2000 2010* Volume %

Traditional markets 63 589 70 973 7 383 11.6 1.1

Producing countries 26 383 41 331 14 948 56.7 4.6


Emerging markets 15 994 22 693 6 699 41.9 3.6

World total 105 966 134 997 29 030 27.4 2.5

*Estimated

Estimated consumption: 10 leading markets by volume

2009 2010 % changemillion bags

World total 131 8 135 0 2 4World total 131.8 135.0 2.4USA 21.4 21.7 1.6Brazil 18.2 18.9 4.1Germany 8.9 9.3 4.4Japan 7.1 7.2 0.9Italy 5.8 5.8 ‐0.4

0 6


France 5.7 5.7 0.6Russian Federation 3.1 3.7 16.9Canada 3.3 3.6 8.9Spain 3.4 3.2 ‐3.6United Kingdom 3.2 3.1 ‐2.7

11

Total consumption Growth rates in traditional markets

2000 2010Annual

growth rateTOTAL 63 589 70 973 1 1%TOTAL 63 589 70 973 1.1%USA 18 746 21 783 1.5%Germany 8 770 9 292 0.6%Japan 6 626 7 192 0.8%Italy 5 149 5 781 1.2%France 5 402 5 711 0.6%Spain 2 991 3 232 0 8%


Spain 2 991 3 232 0.8%United Kingdom 2 342 3 134 3.0%Netherlands 1 860 1 347 ‐3.2%Sweden 1 173 1 221 0.4%Finland 967 1 080 1.1%

Total consumptionGrowth rates in producing countries

2000 2010Annual

growth rategrowth rate

Total 26 383 41 331 +4.3

Brazil 13 075 18 945 +3.8

Indonesia 1 664 3 333 +7.2

Ethiopia 1 938 3 253 +5.3


Mexico 1 189 2 239 +6.5

India 938 1 400 +4.1

Others 7 579 12 161 +3.9

12

Top 10 producers: ratio (domestic consumption/total production)Crop years 2000/01 and 2011/12*

2000 2011*

Brazil 42.2% 46.6%

Vietnam 2.7% 8.6%

Ethiopia 64.7% 34.5%

Indonesia 24.0% 38.1%

Colombia 13.5% 16.5%

India 22.9% 32.7%

Mexico 27 1% 52 3%


*Estimated

Mexico 27.1% 52.3%

Peru 7.5% 5.6%

Honduras 8.6% 10.7%

Guatemala 6.1% 9.4%

Total consumptionGrowth rates in emerging markets

2000 2010Annual

growth rateTotal 15 994 22 693 3 6%Total 15 994 22 693 3.6%Russian Federation 1 863 3 661 7.0%

Poland 2 046 2 156 0.5%

Algeria 1 779 2 021 1.3%

Korea, Rep. of 1 246 1 666 3.0%

Ukraine 179 1 485 23.6%

Australia 832 1 370 5.1%

R i 551 796 3 7%


Romania 551 796 3.7%

Turkey 291 610 7.7%

Israel 287 553 6.8%

South Africa, Rep.of 368 553 4.1%

Serbia 644 548 ‐1.6%

13

Thank youThank youध यवाद

www ico org


www.ico.org

Robério Oliveira Silva

Executive Director

Documents

International Coffee Outlook · 3 India: Share of Arabica/Robusta on total production Crop years 1985/86 to 2011/12* 90% 100% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% International Coffee Organization