International Conference RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES:SUPPORT OF DUAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION International Conference RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

International ConferenceInternational ConferenceRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES:SUPPORT OF DUAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATIONRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES:SUPPORT OF DUAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION


NATO Project SfP-982063NATO Project SfP-982063NATO Project SfP-982063NATO Project SfP-982063

©© Assoc. Prof. Elena Lacatus, Ph.D., NSE Assoc. Prof. Elena Lacatus, Ph.D., NSE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES: APPLIED INTERACTIVE DUALITYRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES: APPLIED INTERACTIVE DUALITY©© Assoc. Prof. Elena Lacatus, Ph.D., NSE Assoc. Prof. Elena Lacatus, Ph.D., NSE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES: APPLIED INTERACTIVE DUALITYRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES: APPLIED INTERACTIVE DUALITY

Research and Development on Research and Development on Emerging Technologies:Emerging Technologies:

Applied Interactive DualityApplied Interactive Duality

Research and Development on Research and Development on Emerging Technologies:Emerging Technologies:

Applied Interactive DualityApplied Interactive Duality

Elena Lacatus, Ph.D., NSE MScAssociate Professor

University POLITEHNICA of Bucharest, ROMANIA





Overview•Duality concept•Rejuvenated model•Emerging Technologies•Applied duality•R&D Policies on Emerging Technologies•Study cases on actual dual interactive emerging technologies

•e-Health•e-Learning•e-Defense•e-Education•e-Environment•OLIVE

•Conclusions





Military

CivilTechnological Transfer

Technological Transfer

Tech

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Emerging Emerging TechnologiesTechnologies

Duality conceptDuality concept• dual-use development as a strategy for improving efficiency and lowering costs

• designed through the Technology Reinvestment Project (TRP) and the associated National Flat Panel Display Initiative

Suddenly a wide range of emergent technologies and technologies already under development for commercial use in the private sector were being considered for lead roles in the war against terror.

Two technological systems with military roots and large potential applications to homeland security attracted broad commercial interest in the 1990’s. Both systems – the Internet and the set of computer-integrated sensor, surveillance and tracking technologies known as “smart highways” or intelligent transportation systems (ITS) – began as outgrowths of military R&D.





GLOBALIZATIONGLOBALIZATIONTRANSFORMATION

TOOLS

e-Learning

e-Health

e-Mgmt

JOINT VISION 2020e-Government

e-Education

e-Defense

e-Environment

e-Business

Rejuvenated model





e-Learning

e-Health

e-Mgmt

e-Government

e-Education

e-Defense

e-Environment

e-Business

e-Health is an emerging field in the intersection of medical informatics, public health and business, referring to health services and information delivered or enhanced through the Internet and related technologies. In a broader sense, the term characterizes not only a technical development, but also a state-of-mind, a way of thinking, an attitude, and a commitment for networked, global thinking, to improve health care locally, regionally, and worldwide by using information and communication technology.

Business conducted using electronic media such as the Internet, other computer networks, wireless transmissions, etc

Government initiatives helping local authorities provide planning services online and accessible via the internet and email

Use of computers and electronics to assist learning and/or professional forming

the learning process created by interaction with digitally delivered content, services and support





‘May you live in interesting times’Ancient Chinese Curse





Mobility in physical space

Desktop

Computers

Virtual Reality

Mobile Computer Systems

Augmented Reality

Immersion into virtual spaceImmersion

A psychological state characterized by perceiving oneself to be enveloped by, included in and interacting with an environment that provides a continuous stream of stimuli and experiences

Mobility

The quality or state of being able to move or be moved quickly from place to place

Emerging Technologies





Computer games Scientific visualization

Industrial designSimulation Teaching





A Fast Changing World -

• World internet usage doubling every 100 days • Domain names being registered @ 17,000 a day

4Internet13Television

38Radio

Time in years taken to gain 50 million users





Three Converging RevolutionsThree Pervasive Technology Platforms

BIO TECHPharmaceuticals

DiagnosticsResearch/Info

ToolsIndustrial

GenomicsBioinformatics

Proteomics

INFO TECHHardwareSoftware

Communications

NANO TECHElectricalStructural

BiomedicalEnergy & Environment

BiosensorsBiochipsBioelectronics

MicrofluidicsNanobiotechnology

Drug Delivery

NanodevicesNanosensors

Nanoelectronics





Overlapping clusters HEALTH

KNOWLEDGE CREATION

INFORMATION and COMMUNICATIONS

TECHNOLOGY

Basic Research

Sound & vision

Bio-pharmaceuticalsComputing

Publishing

Medicalservices

Bio-informatics

Medical devices and scientific instruments

University/ Research Institutes

Inkjet printing

Wireless

Telecoms

Networking

Technology ConsultingMedicalresearch

Education





10 Emerging Technologies withGlobal Market Potential

1. New materials developed at a nano level including stronger, lighter plastics. Multiple applications – e.g. countertops, auto parts, toys

2. Drug and gene delivery systems – numerous applications – targeting tumours and incorrect proteins

3. Sensors and actuators – variety of applications e.g. electronics, cars, medical devices, pollution monitoring

4. Electronic communications and informatics for data transmission5. Instrumentation, tooling and metrology for manipulation and assembly

of the nanoscale6. Tissue engineering – artificial organs, medical implants, replacements for

bones and teeth





7. New polymers – “plastronics” – light emitting polymers in screen and display technology, conductive polymers as potential silicon replacements

8. Bioinformatics – computer based methods for a variety of applications to support bioscience developments, e.g. identification of drug candidates, genomics and proteomics

9. “Bluetooth” – short-range wireless device-to-device communication – applications – entertainment, security, telecommunications, many more

10. Sentient computing – computers and sensors responding and interfacing with the external environment

10 Emerging Technologies withGlobal Market Potential





SustainabilityThe lifecycle of products: waste / recyclingLand Use: economic & environmental sustainabilityEnergy Futures: new sources

HealthGene therapyProteomics (protein functions)Regenerative medicine (stem cells))Brain science: protective strategiesUntreatable infections drug cultures

ICTIntelligent Search Engines: large data setsSelf regulating intelligent systemsPervasive computingCyber Trust: integrity & privacyKnowledge exploitation: speeding innovationCreative Leisure: interactive technology

Basic ScienceMaterials Sciences

Genetics /BiosciencesNanotechnology

Computing / InformationCross cutting technologies

ComponentsPolymers – light / conductivityPrint technologySustainable materials Housing / transport

DTI Foresight / Investing for Innovation

Hi-tech… Bio-tech… What next?





For the Future…. For ALL of us….

• “Globalisation” will have new meanings• Growth of Asian Economies will have profound impacts• Collaboration and Partnership more sensible than competing

sub-regions and clusters in Europe• Innovation Champions Network – an inspirational vehicle for

European Sub-Region development and collaboration• Think of “ 2 + 2 = at least 6 – if you deal with emerging

technologies!”





Fundamental ICTinnovations

Revisions ofIPR Regime

INDUSTRY--"incumbents" disrupted by

"insurgents"

Other Public PolicyDrivers of Privatization

Altered University/IndustryResearch Relationships

and Technology Licensing

Proprietary R&D andCommercial Innovation

Privatization ofScientific Data and

Information

Open ScienceResearch

The Technology BoomerangPaul A. David

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+ -





Trends at the interface of Security & S&T

• Security increasingly dependent upon science and technology superiority and agility

• Tension between culture of science & culture of security• Inherent dual use of technologies more significant• Technology will empower ever smaller actors to achieve greater

absolute thresholds of threats• Technology enables changes in regional power balances• The inability of some to adapt to technologic change likely to be

destabilizing• International system increasingly interconnected and integrated,

facilitated in part by technology





Technology Forecasting: Looking Back at Past Projections . . .

“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear power will ever be obtainable.” Albert Einstein 1932

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”Thomas Watson 1943

“Two years from now, spam will be solved.”Bill Gates 2004

New York Times Monday January 10, 2005 Page C4

ActorsUses

Innovators & Alchemists

“The Usual Suspects”

Diffusion to Adopters“Not the Usual

Suspects”

Passive Bystanders“Victim or

Beneficiary”

EmergingTechApplied to Pre-Existing Use

Backup system for LORAN for US military ships and aircraft

EmergingTechMakes PossibleNewUseand/orActivity

GPS INITIAL EXPECTED USES

ActorsUses




Suspects”


Beneficiary”



Navigation system for potential adversaries

Plate movement and fault-line monitoring on earthquakes


GPS APPLICATIONS AND DIFFUSION

ActorsUses




Suspects”


Beneficiary”






Navigation for vehicles

Handheld location for infantry

Accurate mapping

Precision Guided Munitions

GPS INNOVATIVE APPLICATIONS NOT INITIALLY SEEN BY DOD

ActorsUses




Suspects”


Beneficiary”





Reduced wrecks and casualties in maneuvers and war


Navigation for vehicles

Handheld location for infantry

Accurate mapping


Precision agriculture

Auto speed and location and insurance coverage

Tracking location of work release prisoners

Enhanced 9-11 & OnStar

Air transport capacity

Location specific advertising to cellular phone users

Higher density air traffic -- passengers to hubs gain from more competition and lower prices

GPS INNOVATION FROM FREE ACCESS + RECEIVER TECHNOLOGY

GPS Case1970s Predictions viewed from 2006

Foreseen,Happened

Foreseen,Didn’t Happen

Unforeseen

Boons Reliable and accurate navigation by US naval and air forces

None Foreseen Civilian navigationPrecision agricultureGeological measuresTracking patients and prisonersCut civilian deaths?


Banes Reliable and accurate navigation by adversary (unless encrypted)Adversary attack GPS

None Foreseen Lower threshold for use of air strikes?Location specific advertising

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF RFIDEXAMPLE OF SPECIFIC SUB-TECHNOLOGY

ActorsUses




Suspects”


Beneficiary”


Walmart RFID Inventory-- locate & track items-- accentuate scale benefits in purchasing

EZ Pass Toll Collection


RFID – SOME FIRST ORDER INNOVATIONS

ActorsUses




Suspects”


Beneficiary”




Smaller Firms use RFID and tracking to combine and secure scale benefits in purchasing


Marketers use RFID to track movement and use of products in homeAlzheimer tracking Mexican police implants

Data produced by EZ Pass used in ITS

RFID - SOME SECOND ORDER INNOVATONS

ActorsUses




Suspects”


Beneficiary”




Smaller Firms use RFID and tracking to combine and secure scale benefits in purchasing

Effects on industrial structure and politics

Snooping and political surveillance


Marketers use RFID to track movement and use of products in homeAlzheimer trackingMexican police implant

Data produced by EZ Pass used in ITS

Insurers use data on product use or driving patterns to define conditions on coverage and limit moral hazard

Scientists use data to do real epidemiology and risk analysts unravel causality

Customized ads as in“Minority Report”

Concerns over privacy and limits on tech uptake

Asimov Last Question

RFID -- SOME THIRD ORDER INNOVATIONS













A large number of emerging technologies and standards address some of thetechnical requirements identified in the paradigm of Virtual Organizations (VOs).









•Classification of technologies and standards;•mapping of technologies and standards to focus areas; •mapping of focus areas to problem areas





Conclusions:

• Regardless the main activity area, Emerging Technologies are interconnected through grid structures either locally or globally;

• Dual emerges to multifunctional as a new technological era (Nanoera) arises;

• All countries’ R&D Strategies on medium and long term have special chapters on Emerging Technologies, metrics and standardization

• Military and civil applications are expressions of the same scientific knowledge with different/ similar technological approaches

Documents

International Conference RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES:SUPPORT OF DUAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION International Conference RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT